Large Regional Differences in Serological Follow-Up of Q Fever Patients in The Netherlands

Background

During the Dutch Q fever epidemic more than 4,000 Q fever cases were notified. This provided logistical challenges for the organisation of serological follow-up, which is considered mandatory for early detection of chronic infection. The aim of this study was to investigate the proportion of acute Q fever patients that received serological follow-up, and to identify regional differences in follow-up rates and contributing factors, such as knowledge of medical practitioners.

Methods

Serological datasets of Q fever patients diagnosed between 2007 and 2009 (N = 3,198) were obtained from three Laboratories of Medical Microbiology (LMM) in the province of Noord-Brabant. One LMM offered an active follow-up service by approaching patients; the other two only tested on physician''s request. The medical microbiologist in charge of each LMM was interviewed. In December 2011, 240 general practices and 112 medical specialists received questionnaires on their knowledge and practices regarding the serological follow-up of Q fever patients.

Results

Ninety-five percent (2,226/2,346) of the Q fever patients diagnosed at the LMM with a follow-up service received at least one serological follow-up within 15 months of diagnosis. For those diagnosed at a LMM without this service, this was 25% (218/852) (OR 54, 95% CI 43–67). Although 80% (162/203) of all medical practitioners with Q fever patients reported informing patients of the importance of serological follow-up, 33% (67/203) never requested it.

Conclusions

Regional differences in follow-up are substantial and range from 25% to 95%. In areas with a low follow-up rate the proportion of missed chronic Q fever is potentially higher than in areas with a high follow-up rate. Medical practitioners lack knowledge regarding the need, timing and implementation of serological follow-up, which contributes to patients receiving incorrect or no follow-up. Therefore, this information should be incorporated in national guidelines and patient information forms.     

Immunization Coverage Surveys and Linked Biomarker Serosurveys in Three Regions in Ethiopia

Objective

Demographic and health surveys, immunization coverage surveys and administrative data often divergently estimate vaccination coverage, which hinders pinpointing districts where immunization services require strengthening. We assayed vaccination coverage in three regions in Ethiopia by coverage surveys and linked serosurveys.

Methods

Households with children aged 12–23 (N = 300) or 6–8 months (N = 100) in each of three districts (woredas) were randomly selected for immunization coverage surveys (inspection of vaccination cards and immunization clinic records and maternal recall) and linked serosurveys. IgG-ELISA serologic biomarkers included tetanus antitoxin ≥ 0.15 IU/ml in toddlers (receipt of tetanus toxoid) and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) anti-capsular titers ≥ 1.0 mcg/ml in infants (timely receipt of Hib vaccine).

Findings

Coverage surveys enrolled 1,181 children across three woredas; 1,023 (87%) also enrolled in linked serosurveys. Administrative data over-estimated coverage compared to surveys, while maternal recall was unreliable. Serologic biomarkers documented a hierarchy among the districts. Biomarker measurement in infants provided insight on timeliness of vaccination not deducible from toddler results.

Conclusion

Neither administrative projections, vaccination card or EPI register inspections, nor parental recall, substitute for objective serological biomarker measurement. Including infants in serosurveys informs on vaccination timeliness.     

East London Experience with Enteric Fever 2007-2012

Purpose

The clinical presentation and epidemiology for patients with enteric fever at two hospitals in East London during 2007–2012 is described with the aim to identify preventive opportunities and to reduce the cost of treatment.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of case notes from patients admitted with enteric fever during 2007 to 2012 with a microbiologically confirmed diagnosis was undertaken. Details on clinical presentation, travel history, demographic data, laboratory parameters, treatment, patient outcome and vaccination status were collected.

Results

Clinical case notes were available for 98/129 (76%) patients including 69 Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) and 29 Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi (S. Paratyphi). Thirty-four patients (35%) were discharged from emergency medicine without a diagnosis of enteric fever and then readmitted after positive blood cultures. Seventy-one of the 98 patients (72%) were UK residents who had travelled abroad, 23 (23%) were foreign visitors/new entrants to the UK and four (4%) had not travelled abroad. Enteric fever was not considered in the initial differential diagnosis for 48/98 (49%) cases. The median length of hospital stay was 7 days (range 0–57 days). The total cost of bed days for managing enteric fever was £454,000 in the two hospitals (mean £75,666/year). Median time to clinical resolution was five days (range 1–20). Seven of 98 (7%) patients were readmitted with relapsed or continued infection. Six of the 71 (8%) patients had received typhoid vaccination, 34 (48%) patients had not received vaccination, and for 31 cases (44%) vaccination status was unknown.

Conclusions

Further interventions regarding education and vaccination of travellers and recognition of the condition by emergency medicine clinicians in travellers to South Asia is required.     

Factors Associated to Vaccination against Influenza among Elderly in a Large Brazilian Metropolis

Background

This study aimed to estimate coverage and identify factors associated to vaccination against influenza in the elderly population.

Methods

The study design was cross-sectional and population based. Data was collected in 2010 by the Health, Well-Being and Aging Study. Sample consisted of 1,341 community-dwelling elderly, in São Paulo, Brazil. Association between vaccination and covariates was evaluated by means of prevalence ratios estimated by Poisson regression models.

Results

Self-reported vaccination coverage was 74.2% (95% confidence interval: 71.3–76.9). Remaining physically active and having had recent interaction with health services, mainly with public units of healthcare, were the main incentives to increase vaccination coverage among the elderly; whereas lower age, living alone and absent interaction with health services were the main constraints to influenza vaccination at the community level. These covariates had already been reported to influence influenza vaccination of elders in previous years.

Conclusion

Previous knowledge already available on the main constraints to influenza vaccination has not allowed to remove them. Influenza campaigns should be strengthened to increase vaccination coverage, especially in the group more reticent to vaccination. Instructing healthcare providers to recommend vaccine uptake is an important piece of this puzzle.     

Modeling and Predicting Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Trends Based on Meteorological Factors in Hu County,China

Background

Hu County is a serious hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemic area, with notable fluctuation of the HFRS epidemic in recent years. This study aimed to explore the optimal model for HFRS epidemic prediction in Hu.

Methods

Three models were constructed and compared, including a generalized linear model (GLM), a generalized additive model (GAM), and a principal components regression model (PCRM). The fitting and predictive adjusted R² of each model were calculated. Ljung-Box Q tests for fitted and predicted residuals of each model were conducted. The study period was stratified into before (1971–1993) and after (1994–2012) vaccine implementation epochs to avoid the confounding factor of vaccination.

Results

The autocorrelation of fitted and predicted residuals of the GAM in the two epochs were not significant (Ljung-Box Q test, P>.05). The adjusted R² for the predictive abilities of the GLM, GAM, and PCRM were 0.752, 0.799, and 0.665 in the early epoch, and 0.669, 0.756, and 0.574 in the recent epoch. The adjusted R² values of the three models were lower in the early epoch than in the recent epoch.

Conclusions

GAM is superior to GLM and PCRM for monthly HFRS case number prediction in Hu County. A shift in model reliability coincident with vaccination implementation demonstrates the importance of vaccination in HFRS control and prevention.     

Cervical Cancer Screening in Partly HPV Vaccinated Cohorts – A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

Vaccination against the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 will reduce the prevalence of these types, thereby also reducing cervical cancer risk in unvaccinated women. This (measurable) herd effect will be limited at first, but is expected to increase over time. At a certain herd immunity level, tailoring screening to vaccination status may no longer be worth the additional effort. Moreover, uniform screening may be the only viable option. We therefore investigated at what level of herd immunity it is cost-effective to also reduce screening intensity in unvaccinated women.

Methods

We used the MISCAN-Cervix model to determine the optimal screening strategy for a pre-vaccination population and for vaccinated women (~80% decreased risk), assuming a willingness-to-pay of €50,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. We considered HPV testing, cytology testing and co-testing and varied the start age of screening, the screening interval and the number of lifetime screens. We then calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of screening unvaccinated women with the strategy optimized to the pre-vaccination population as compared to with the strategy optimized to vaccinated women, assuming different herd immunity levels.

Results

Primary HPV screening with cytology triage was the optimal strategy, with 8 lifetime screens for the pre-vaccination population and 3 for vaccinated women. The ICER of screening unvaccinated women 8 times instead of 3 was €28,085 in the absence of herd immunity. At around 50% herd immunity, the ICER reached €50,000.

Conclusion

From a herd immunity level of 50% onwards, screening intensity based on the pre-vaccination risk level becomes cost-ineffective for unvaccinated women. Reducing the screening intensity of uniform screening may then be considered.     

Coverage and Timing of Children's Vaccination: An Evaluation of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation in The Gambia

Objective

To evaluate the coverage and timeliness of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) in The Gambia.

Methods

Vaccination data were obtained between January 2005 and December 2012 from the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System (FHDSS), the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS), the Kiang West Demographic surveillance system (KWDSS), a cluster survey in the more urban Western Health Region (WR) and a cross sectional study in four clinics in the semi-urban Greater Banjul area of WR. Kaplan-Meier survival function was used to estimate the proportion vaccinated by age and to assess timeliness to vaccination.

Findings

BCG vaccine uptake was over 95% in all regions. Coverage of DPT1 ranged from 93.2% in BHDSS to 99.8% in the WR. Coverage decreased with increasing number of DPT doses; DPT3 coverage ranged from 81.7% in BHDSS to 99.0% in WR. Measles vaccination coverage ranged from 83.3% in BHDSS to 97.0% in WR. DPT4 booster coverage was low and ranged from 43.9% in the WR to 82.8% in KWDSS. Across all regions, delaying on previous vaccinations increased the likelihood of being delayed for the subsequent vaccination.

Conclusions

The Gambia health system achieves high vaccine coverage in the first year of life. However, there continues to be a delay to vaccination which may impact on the introduction of new vaccines. Examples of effectively functioning EPI programmes such as The Gambia one may well be important models for other low income countries struggling to achieve high routine vaccination coverage.     

Persistent High IgG Phase I Antibody Levels against Coxiella burnetii among Veterinarians Compared to Patients Previously Diagnosed with Acute Q Fever after Three Years of Follow-Up

Background

Little is known about the development of chronic Q fever in occupational risk groups. The aim of this study was to perform long-term follow-up of Coxiella burnetii seropositive veterinarians and investigate the course of IgG phase I and phase II antibodies against C. burnetii antigens and to compare this course with that in patients previously diagnosed with acute Q fever.

Methods

Veterinarians with IgG phase I ≥1:256 (immunofluorescence assay) that participated in a previous seroprevalence study were asked to provide a second blood sample three years later. IgG antibody profiles were compared to a group of acute Q fever patients who had IgG phase I ≥1:256 twelve months after diagnosis.

Results

IgG phase I was detected in all veterinarians (n = 76) and in 85% of Q fever patients (n = 98) after three years (p<0.001). IgG phase I ≥1:1,024, indicating possible chronic Q fever, was found in 36% of veterinarians and 12% of patients (OR 3.95, 95% CI: 1.84–8.49).

Conclusions

IgG phase I persists among veterinarians presumably because of continuous exposure to C. burnetii during their work. Serological and clinical follow-up of occupationally exposed risk groups should be considered.     

Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

Background

Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods.

Methods and Findings

Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone.The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000–380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000–180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%–31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys.

Conclusions

With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Clinical Characteristics of Q Fever and Etiology of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in a Tropical Region of Southern Taiwan: A Prospective Observational Study

Background

The clinical characteristics of Q fever are poorly identified in the tropics. Fever with pneumonia or hepatitis are the dominant presentations of acute Q fever, which exhibits geographic variability. In southern Taiwan, which is located in a tropical region, the role of Q fever in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has never been investigated.

Methodology/Principal Findings

During the study period, May 2012 to April 2013, 166 cases of adult CAP and 15 cases of acute Q fever were prospectively investigated. Cultures of clinical specimens, urine antigen tests for Streptococcus pneumoniae and Legionella pneumophila, and paired serologic assessments for Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Chlamydophila pneumoniae, and Q fever (Coxiella burnetii) were used for identifying pathogens associated with CAP. From April 2004 to April 2013 (the pre-study period), 122 cases of acute Q fever were also included retrospectively for analysis. The geographic distribution of Q fever and CAP cases was similar. Q fever cases were identified in warmer seasons and younger ages than CAP. Based on multivariate analysis, male gender, chills, thrombocytopenia, and elevated liver enzymes were independent characteristics associated with Q fever. In patients with Q fever, 95% and 13.5% of cases presented with hepatitis and pneumonia, respectively. Twelve (7.2%) cases of CAP were seropositive for C. burnetii antibodies, but none of them had acute Q fever. Among CAP cases, 22.9% had a CURB-65 score ≧2, and 45.8% had identifiable pathogens. Haemophilus parainfluenzae (14.5%), S. pneumoniae (6.6%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (4.8%), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (3.0%) were the most common pathogens identified by cultures or urine antigen tests. Moreover, M. pneumoniae, C. pneumoniae, and co-infection with 2 pathogens accounted for 9.0%, 7.8%, and 1.8%, respectively.

Conclusions

In southern Taiwan, Q fever is an endemic disease with hepatitis as the major presentation and is not a common etiology of CAP.     

Beyond Rational Decision-Making: Modelling the Influence of Cognitive Biases on the Dynamics of Vaccination Coverage

Background

Theoretical studies predict that it is not possible to eradicate a disease under voluntary vaccination because of the emergence of non-vaccinating “free-riders” when vaccination coverage increases. A central tenet of this approach is that human behaviour follows an economic model of rational choice. Yet, empirical studies reveal that vaccination decisions do not necessarily maximize individual self-interest. Here we investigate the dynamics of vaccination coverage using an approach that dispenses with payoff maximization and assumes that risk perception results from the interaction between epidemiology and cognitive biases.

Methods

We consider a behaviour-incidence model in which individuals perceive actual epidemiological risks as a function of their opinion of vaccination. As a result of confirmation bias, sceptical individuals (negative opinion) overestimate infection cost while pro-vaccines individuals (positive opinion) overestimate vaccination cost. We considered a feedback between individuals and their environment as individuals could change their opinion, and thus the way they perceive risks, as a function of both the epidemiology and the most common opinion in the population.

Results

For all parameter values investigated, the infection is never eradicated under voluntary vaccination. For moderately contagious diseases, oscillations in vaccination coverage emerge because individuals process epidemiological information differently depending on their opinion. Conformism does not generate oscillations but slows down the cultural response to epidemiological change.

Conclusion

Failure to eradicate vaccine preventable disease emerges from the model because of cognitive biases that maintain heterogeneity in how people perceive risks. Thus, assumptions of economic rationality and payoff maximization are not mandatory for predicting commonly observed dynamics of vaccination coverage. This model shows that alternative notions of rationality, such as that of ecological rationality whereby individuals use simple cognitive heuristics, offer promising new avenues for modelling vaccination behaviour.     

Access and Attitudes to HPV Vaccination amongst Hard-To-Reach Populations in Kenya

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa bears the greatest burden of cervical cancer. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes to prevent the disease will need to reach vulnerable girls who may not be able access health and screening services in the future. We conducted formative research on facilitators and barriers to HPV vaccination and potential acceptability of a future HPV vaccination programme amongst girls living in hard-to-reach populations in Kenya.

Methods

Stakeholder interviews with Ministry of Health staff explored barriers to and support for the uptake of HPV vaccination. A situation assessment was conducted to assess community services in Maasai nomadic pastoralist communities in Kajiado County and in Korogocho informal settlement in Nairobi city, followed by focus group discussions (n=14) and semi-structured interviews (n=28) with health workers, parents, youth, and community and religious leaders. These covered marriage, knowledge of cervical cancer and HPV, factors that might inhibit or support HPV vaccine uptake and intention to accept HPV vaccine if a programme was in place.

Results

Reported challenges to an HPV vaccination programme included school absenteeism and drop-out, early age of sex and marriage, lack of parental support, population mobility and distance from services. Despite little prior knowledge of cervical cancer and HPV, communities were interested in receiving HPV vaccination. Adequate social mobilisation and school-based vaccination, supplemented by out-reach activities, were considered important facilitating factors to achieve high coverage. There was some support for a campaign approach to vaccine delivery.

Conclusions

Given the high level of support for a vaccine against cervical cancer and the experience of reaching pastoralist and slum-dwellers for other immunizations, implementing an HPV vaccine programme should be feasible in such hard-to-reach communities. This may require additional delivery strategies in addition to the standard school-based delivery, with vaccine offered at multiple venues, potentially through a campaign approach.     

HPV Serology Testing Confirms High HPV Immunisation Coverage in England

Background

Reported human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in England is high, particularly in girls offered routine immunisation at age 12 years. Serological surveillance can be used to validate reported coverage and explore variations within it and changes in serological markers over time.

Methods

Residual serum specimens collected from females aged 15–19 years in 2010–2011 were tested for anti-HPV16 and HPV18 IgG by ELISA. Based on these results, females were classified as follows: seronegative, probable natural infection, probable vaccine-induced seropositivity, or possible natural infection/possible vaccine-induced seropositivity. The proportion of females with vaccine-induced seropositivity was compared to the reported vaccination coverage.

Results

Of 2146 specimens tested, 1380 (64%) were seropositive for both types HPV16 and HPV18 and 159 (7.4%) positive for only one HPV type. The IgG concentrations were far higher for those positive for both HPV types than those positive for only one HPV type. 1320 (62%) females were considered to have probable vaccine-induced seropositivity. Among vaccine-induced seropositives, antibody concentrations declined with increasing age at vaccination and increasing time since vaccination.

Conclusions

The proportion of females with vaccine-induced seropositivity was closest to the reported 3-dose coverage in those offered the vaccination at younger ages, with a greater discrepancy in the older females. This suggests either some under-reporting of immunisations of older females and/or that partial vaccination (i.e. one- or two-doses) has provided high antibody responses in 13–17 year olds.     

Fever as an Initial Manifestation of Enthesitis-Related Arthritis Subtype of Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: Retrospective Study

Objective

We wished to determine the prevalence of fever as one of the first symptoms of the enthesitis-related arthritis (ERA) subtype of juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Also, we wished to ascertain if ERA patients with fever at disease onset differed from those without fever.

Methods

Consecutive cases of ERA were diagnosed and followed in a retrospective observational study from 1998 to 2013. Information about clinical/laboratory data, medications, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and disease activity during the study period was also recorded.

Results

A total of 146 consecutive ERA patients were assessed. Among them, 52 patients (35.6%) had fever as one of the first symptoms at disease onset. Compared with ERA patients without fever at disease onset, patients with fever had significantly more painful joints (3.5 vs. 2.8), more swollen joints (1.1 vs. 0.8), and more enthesitis (1.0 vs. 0.4) (p<0.05 for all comparisons). Patients with fever had significantly higher mean values of erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, platelet count, and child health assessment questionnaire (CHAQ) scores (40.8 vs. 26.4 mm/h; 20.7 vs. 9.7 mg/dL; 353.2×10⁹/L vs. 275.6×109/L; 1.0 vs. 0.8, respectively; all p<0.05). During two-year follow-up, CHAQ score, number of flares, as well as the number of patients treated with oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, corticosteroids and combination therapy with disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, were significantly higher in ERA patients with fever.

Conclusions

Fever was a frequent manifestation of ERA. ERA patients with fever had more active disease at disease onset and poorer outcomes than ERA patients without fever.     

Population Dynamics of Owned,Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control

Background

Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1^st January 2012 through 1^st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28–1.85). In the age class 0–3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05–0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11–0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months.

Conclusions and Significance

Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization’s empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination.     

Arterial Hypertension and Skin Allergy Are Risk Factors for Progression from Dengue to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: A Case Control Study

Background

Currently, knowledge does not allow early prediction of which cases of dengue fever (DF) will progress to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), to allow early intervention to prevent progression or to limit severity. The objective of this study is to investigate the hypothesis that some specific comorbidities increase the likelihood of a DF case progressing to DHF.

Methods

A concurrent case-control study, conducted during dengue epidemics, from 2009 to 2012. Cases were patients with dengue fever that progressed to DHF, and controls were patients of dengue fever who did not progress to DHF. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between DHF and comorbidities.

Results

There were 490 cases of DHF and 1,316 controls. Among adults, progression to DHF was associated with self-reported hypertension (OR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.1-2.1) and skin allergy (OR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.2) with DHF after adjusting for ethnicity and socio-economic variables. There was no statistically significant association between any chronic disease and progression to DHF in those younger than 15 years.

Conclusions

Physicians attending patients with dengue fever should keep those with hypertension or skin allergies in health units to monitor progression for early intervention. This would reduce mortality by dengue.     

Pneumococcal Transmission and Disease In Silico: A Microsimulation Model of the Indirect Effects of Vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine''s efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.     

The Impact of Integrated Community Case Management of Childhood Diseases Interventions to Prevent Malaria Fever in Children Less than Five Years Old in Bauchi State of Nigeria

Background

Malaria accounts for about 300,000 childhood deaths and 30% of under-five year old mortality in Nigeria annually. We assessed the impact of intervention strategies that integrated Patent Medicines Vendors into community case management of childhood-diseases, improved access to artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) and distributed bed nets to households. We explored the influence of household socioeconomic characteristics on the impact of the interventions on fever in the under-five year olds in Bauchi State Nigeria.

Methods

A cross-sectional case-controlled, interventional study, which sampled 3077 and 2737 under-5 year olds from 1,588 and 1601 households in pre- and post-intervention periods respectively, was conducted from 2013 to 2015. Difference-in-differences and logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the impact attributable to the interventions: integrated community case management of childhood illness which introduced trained public and private sector health providers and the possession of nets on the prevalence of fever.

Results

Two-week prevalence of fever among under-fives declined from 56.6% at pre-intervention to 42.5% at post-intervention. Fever-prevention fraction attributable to nets was statistically significant (OR = 0.217, 95% CI: 0.08–0.33). Children in the intervention group had significantly fewer incidence of fever than children in the control group had (OR = 0.765, 95% CI: 0.67–0.87). Although being in the intervention group significantly provided 23.5% protection against fever (95% CI: 0.13–0.33), the post-intervention likelihood of fever was also significantly less than at pre-intervention (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.50–0.65). The intervention protection fraction against fever was statistically significant at 43.4% (OR = 0.434, 95% CI: 0.36–0.50). Logistic regression showed that the odds of fever were lower in households with nets (OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60–0.88), among children whose mothers had higher education, in the post-intervention period (OR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.33–0.46) and in the intervention group (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.48–0.66). The odds of fever increased with higher socio-economic status of households (17.9%-19.5%). Difference-in-differences showed that the interventions significantly reduced occurrence of fever in the intervention group (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.36–2.14).

Conclusion

The interventions were effective in reducing the prevalence and the likelihood of childhood malaria fever. Taken to scale, these can significantly reduce the burden of malaria fever in the under-five year old children.