Post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine. Report 2: risk analysis

On April 26, 1986, the worst nuclear reactor accident to date occurred at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) power plant in Ukraine. Millions of people in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were exposed to radioactive nuclides, especially (131)I. Since then, research has been conducted on various subgroups of the exposed population, and it has been demonstrated that the large increase in thyroid cancer is related to the (131)I exposure. However, because of study limitations, quantified risk estimates are limited, and there remains a need for additional information. We conducted an ecological study to investigate the relationship between (131)I thyroid dose and the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in three highly contaminated oblasts in Northern Ukraine. The study population is comprised of 301,907 persons who were between the ages of 1 and 18 at the time of the Chornobyl accident and were living in 1,293 rural settlements in the three study oblasts. Twenty-four percent of the study population had individual thyroid dose estimates and the other 76% had "individualized" estimates of thyroid dose based on direct thyroid measurements taken from a person of the same age and gender living in the same or nearby settlement. Cases include 232 thyroid cancers diagnosed from January 1990 through December 2001, and all were confirmed histologically. Dose-response analyses took into account differences in the rate of ultrasound examinations conducted in the three study oblasts. The estimated excess relative risk per gray was 8.0 (95% CI = 4.6-15) and the excess absolute risk per 10,000 person-year gray was estimated to be 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2-1.9). In broad terms, these estimates are compatible with results of other studies from the contaminated areas, as well as studies of external radiation exposure.     

A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: objectives, design and methods

The thyroid gland in children is one of the organs that is most sensitive to external exposure to X and gamma rays. However, data on the risk of thyroid cancer in children after exposure to radioactive iodines are sparse. The Chornobyl accident in Ukraine in 1986 led to the exposure of large populations to radioactive iodines, particularly (131)I. This paper describes an ongoing cohort study being conducted in Belarus and Ukraine that includes 25,161 subjects under the age of 18 years in 1986 who are being screened for thyroid diseases every 2 years. Individual thyroid doses are being estimated for all study subjects based on measurement of the radioactivity of the thyroid gland made in 1986 together with a radioecological model and interview data. Approximately 100 histologically confirmed thyroid cancers were detected as a consequence of the first round of screening. The data will enable fitting appropriate dose-response models, which are important in both radiation epidemiology and public health for prediction of risks from exposure to radioactive iodines from medical sources and any future nuclear accidents. Plans are to continue to follow-up the cohort for at least three screening cycles, which will lead to more precise estimates of risk.     

Prevalence of hyperthyroidism after exposure during childhood or adolescence to radioiodines from the chornobyl nuclear accident: dose-response results from the Ukrainian-American Cohort Study

Relatively few data are available on the prevalence of hyperthyroidism (TSH concentrations of <0.3 mIU/liter, with normal or elevated concentrations of free T4) in individuals exposed to radioiodines at low levels. The accident at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) nuclear plant in Ukraine on April 26, 1986 exposed large numbers of residents to radioactive fallout, principally to iodine-131 ((131)I) (mean and median doses = 0.6 Gy and 0.2 Gy). We investigated the relationship between (131)I and prevalent hyperthyroidism among 11,853 individuals exposed as children or adolescents in Ukraine who underwent an in-depth, standardized thyroid gland screening examination 12-14 years later. Radioactivity measurements taken shortly after the accident were available for all subjects and were used to estimate individual thyroid doses. We identified 76 cases of hyperthyroidism (11 overt, 65 subclinical). Using logistic regression, we tested a variety of continuous risk models and conducted categorical analyses for all subjects combined and for females (53 cases, n = 5,767) and males (23 cases, n = 6,086) separately but found no convincing evidence of a dose-response relationship between (131)I and hyperthyroidism. There was some suggestion of elevated risk among females in an analysis based on a dichotomous dose model with a threshold of 0.5 Gy chosen empirically (OR = 1.86, P = 0.06), but the statistical significance level was reduced (P = 0.13) in a formal analysis with an estimated threshold. In summary, after a thorough exploration of the data, we found no statistically significant dose-response relationship between individual (131)I thyroid doses and prevalent hyperthyroidism.     

Thyroid doses in Ukraine due to 131I intake after the Chornobyl accident. Report II: dose estimates for the Ukrainian population

This paper describes the revision of the thyroid dosimetry system in Ukraine using new, recently available data on (i) revised ¹³¹I thyroid activities derived from direct thyroid measurements done in May and June 1986 in 146,425 individuals; (ii) revised estimates of ¹³¹I ground deposition density in each Ukrainian settlement; and (iii) estimates of age- and gender-specific thyroid masses for the Ukrainian population. The revised dosimetry system estimates the thyroid doses for the residents of the settlements divided into three levels depending on the availability of measurements of ¹³¹I thyroid activity among their residents. Thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake were estimated in this study for different age and gender groups of residents of 30,353 settlements in 24 oblasts of Ukraine, Autonomous Republic Krym, and cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol. Among them, dose estimates for 835 settlements were based on ¹³¹I thyroid activities measured in more than ten residents (the first level), for 690 settlements based on such measurements done in neighboring settlements (the second level), and for 28,828 settlements based on a purely empirical relationship between the thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake and the cumulative ¹³¹I ground deposition densities in settlements (the third level). The arithmetic mean of the thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake among 146,425 measured individuals was 0.23 Gy (median of 0.094 Gy); about 99.8% of them received doses less than 5 Gy. The highest oblast-average population-weighted thyroid doses were estimated for residents of Chernihiv (0.15 Gy for arithmetic mean and 0.060 Gy for geometric mean), Kyiv (0.13 and 0.051 Gy) and Zhytomyr (0.12 and 0.049 Gy) Oblasts followed by Rivne (0.10 and 0.039 Gy) and Cherkasy (0.088 and 0.032 Gy) Oblasts, and Kyiv City (0.076 and 0.031 Gy). The geometric mean of thyroid doses estimated in this study for the entire Ukraine essentially did not change in comparison with a previous estimate, 0.020 vs. 0.021 Gy, respectively. The ratio of geometric mean of oblast-specific thyroid doses estimated in the present study to previously calculated doses varied from 0.51 to 3.9. The highest increase in thyroid doses was found in areas remote from the Chornobyl nuclear power plant with a low level of radioactive contamination: by 3.9 times for Zakarpatska Oblast, 3.5 times for Luhansk Oblasts and 2.9 times for Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. The developed thyroid dosimetry system is being used to revise the thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake for the individuals of post-Chornobyl radiation epidemiological studies: the Ukrainian-American cohort of individuals exposed during childhood and adolescence, the Ukrainian in utero cohort, and the Chornobyl Tissue Bank.

     

A radioecological model for thyroid dose reconstruction of the Belarus population following the Chernobyl accident

A radioecological model was developed to estimate thyroid exposures of the Belarus population following the Chernobyl accident. The input of the model includes an extensive data set of the ¹³⁷Cs activity per unit area deposited during the Chernobyl accident, the rainfall data for different regions of Belarus, the ¹³¹I/¹³⁷Cs ratio in the deposit and the start of the grazing period in Belarus in April/May 1986. The output of the model is the age-dependent thyroid exposure due to the intake of ¹³¹I with fresh milk. Age-dependent average thyroid doses were assessed for selected regions of Belarus. The maximum thyroid doses were estimated for the inhabitants of Gomel oblast where the highest deposition was observed among the regions considered here. The lowest doses were estimated for Vitebsk oblast with the lowest level of depositions. The mean exposures for the oblasts of Grodno, Minsk, Mogilev and Brest were very similar. The results were compared with estimations of thyroid exposure that were based on ¹³¹I measurements in human thyroids, and they are in good agreement. The model may be used for the assessment of thyroid doses in Belarus for areas where no ¹³¹I measurements are available.     

Estimation of I131 doses absorbed by the thyroid in the period from May to June 1986

In a randomly selected group of subjects the uptake of iodine radioisotopes was measured over the thyroid in the period May 6-23, 1986. From the obtained results the doses were estimated which were absorbed from April 28, 1986 until the time of complete disappearance of I131 from the thyroid. The highest dose of radiation absorbed from I131 by the thyroid was found in the youngest group (children aged 5 to 12 years) and it was 227.8 mGy (about 23 rads).     

Nuclear-power-plant accidents: thyroid cancer incidence and radiation-related health effects from the Chernobyl accident

Following the Chernobyl accident, enormous amounts of radioisotopes were released in the atmosphere and have contaminated surrounding populations in the absence of rapid protective countermeasures. The highest radiation doses were delivered to the thyroid gland, and the only direct consequence of radiation exposure observed among contaminated population is the increased incidence of thyroid cancers among subjects who were children in 1986 and who lived at that time in Belarus, Ukraine or Russia.     

Thyroid cancer incidence in the Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident: comparison with spontaneous incidences

The thyroid cancer incidence in the Ukraine among those born in the period 1968–1986 was analyzed with the aim to identify the enhancement due to the Chernobyl accident. Since any Ukrainian data referring to the time period before the accident are scarce and the variation of spontaneous incidences in other countries is immense, the Ukrainian incidences in the period 1986–1989 were used to estimate the baseline risk. Following 1990, the incidence in the southern part of the Ukraine increased by about 30%, independent of age. In the other parts the increase of the incidence depended on age at exposure. In the age group of 9-year-old children, the incidences in three regions defined as the `high-dose area', the northern, and the middle oblasts, increased by factors of 50, 20, and 6, respectively. These rates (1991–1995) are well above spontaneous rates in other countries. In the age group of 17-year-old juveniles, the incidence increased by a factor of 6 for the `high dose area' and in the three northern oblasts, whereas in the nine `middle' oblasts it was similar to the incidence of the `southern' Ukraine. These rates are within the range found in other countries.     

Evaluation of equivalent body burden in the thyroid for the people of Poland on results of 131I absorption after the disaster in Czernobyl. Determination of thyroid blockade with potassium iodide]

An assessment of effectiveness of the administering of single dose of stable iodine in Poland on the reduction of 131I doses in thyroid has been performed. 5-compartment model of metabolism of iodine developed by Johnson has been used to evaluate predicted levels of stable iodine and 131I content in thyroid and commitment dose equivalent H50 for different doses of stable iodine and various age and sex group population. The measured values of 131I concentration in air and in milk and standard values for milk and food consumption and inhalation rate as well as metabolic parameters were used. Theoretical calculations showed that administering of stable iodine on 1986-04-28, 1986-04-29, 1986-04-30 and 1986-05-01 could have reduced committed dose equivalent H50 form ingestion with inhalation pathway by about 44%, 40%, 26%, 12% respectively. On the basis of measured 131I activity in the thyroid for inhabitants from different districts in Poland (1400 measurement) committed dose equivalents were determined and analysis of radiation hazard from 131I were performed. In the most contaminated regions of Poland average H50 doses for children 1-5 and 5-10 years old are close to 50 mSv (permissible level for population) and maximal doses exceed this limit four times. These maximal doses occurred for about from 5% inhabitants from these area. In the moderate and low contaminated regions of Poland the average doses are fivefold and tenfold less respectively.     

Thyroid dose assessment for the Chernigov region (Ukraine): Estimation based on131I thyroid measurements and extrapolation of the results to districts without monitoring

Based on the results of¹³¹I thyroid activity measurements in three districts of the Chernigov region (Ukraine), individual doses were calculated and an approach of the age dependence of the average thyroid exposure was derived. Using the relationships between the thyroid doses and the¹³⁷Cs deposition as well as the location relative to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), age-dependent average thyroid doses were extrapolated also for those settlements of this region where no monitoring measurements have been carried out. The highest doses were found in the west of the region with the lowest distance to the Chernobyl NPP. In this part, the highest mean of the thyroid dose in a settlement was 3.3 Gy for infants and 0.5 Gy for adults. The collective thyroid dose was 31000 and 27 000 person-Gy for children and adults, respectively. Based on this assessment, 140 and 21 excess thyroid cancer cases are predicted for children and adults, respectively. In the years 1989 to 1991, in the whole contaminated territory of the Ukraine 0.4–1.2 cases per 100000 children were observed. Although the absolute numbers are very small, this indicates the possibility of an increase in thyroid cancer morbidity among children. The same trend also seems to be indicated in the Chernigov region. A careful epidemiological study in the future is necessary to enable a final evaluation of radioinduced cancers in this region.     

15 years after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant

Health effects as a result of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant occurred in 1986 are considered in the paper. Wrong prognosis of the health effects with respect to mortality and morbidity among the population exposed to low radiation doses is shown. Proven increase in thyroid cancer cases among people who were children aged from 0 to 18 at the time of the accident is shown. Linear relationship between thyroid cancer cases and dose to thyroid ranged from 0.2 to 4.0 Gy is considered. An additional absolute risk of thyroid cancer in children varies in the range 1.9-2.6 cases per 10(4) person-year Gy. During the fifteen years following the accident no cases of acute and chronic radiation sickness have been revealed because the population living in contaminated areas received low radiation doses. Also, exposures to low radiation doses did not result in excess of malignant tumors among population. In some cases the outcomes of acute radiation sickness were as follows: radiation damages to the skin, cancer cataracts, development of oncopathology.     

Thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine: trends with reference to the Chernobyl accident

For the first time, a comparative analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident was done in a cohort that is almost as large as the general population. On the basis of thyroid doses from radioactive iodine in individuals aged 1-18 years at the time of accident, geographic regions of Ukraine with low and high average accumulated thyroid doses were established and designated "low-exposure" and "high-exposure" territories, respectively. A significant difference of thyroid cancer incidence rates as a function of time between the two territories was found. That is, the increase in the incidence was higher in high-exposure regions than in low-exposure regions. The incidence rates varied substantially among the different attained age-groups, especially in the youngest one (up to 19 years old). The analysis that was adjusted for screening and technological effects also indicated that in the high-exposure regions, thyroid cancer incidence rates at the age of diagnosis of 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years were significantly higher in those born in 1982-1986 compared to those born in 1987-1991, while in the low-exposure regions, no significant difference was observed. The observed probable excess of radiation-induced thyroid cancer cases in adults exposed to radioactive iodine from the Chernobyl accident, especially in females, may be due to the high power of the present study. However, it should be noted that our investigation was not essentially free from ecological biases.     

Thyroid dose and thyroid cancer incidence after the Chernobyl accident: assessments for the Zhytomyr region (Ukraine)

In the Zhytomyr region, about 52 000 measurements of the ¹³¹I activity in thyroids were performed. On the basis of these measurements, individual doses have been assessed for the people monitored and age-dependent average doses have been estimated for those settlements with more than 11 direct measurements. In order to estimate the pattern of thyroid exposure in the Zhytomyr region, these doses have been interpolated or extrapolated to population groups who were not monitored during May–June 1986. For this purpose, a model has been developed based on a correlation between thyroid dose estimates with the ¹³⁷Cs deposition and the co-ordinates of the settlements relative to Chernobyl. Collective doses of people who were born in the years 1968 to 1986 were calculated. The radiation-induced thyroid cancer incidence in the period 1991 to 1995 was assessed by subtracting the spontaneous incidence from the observed incidence. The result is considerably lower than that observed in longer periods after external exposures. Possible reasons for this difference are discussed. Received: 17 January 1997 / Accepted in revised form: 2 October 1997     

Results of dynamic cytogenetic study of children and teenagers living in areas, radioactive by contaminated after the Chernobyl accident

Results of multiyear cytogenetic study of children and teenagers living in areas, radioactive by contaminated after Chernobyl accident, were adduced. Mean density of 137Cs contamination in two compared living areas were 111 and 200 kBq/m2 and mean external doses accumulated for 1986-2001 were 6.7 and 11.4 mGy correspondingly. Averaged thyroid doses receives by subjects of all age groups in the second area were approximately 1.5 times higher than in the first area; in the youngest group (0-1 year) the doses were 114.3 and 174.3 mGy. During 17 years cytogenetic investigation approximately from 30% to 60% of examined persons were observed the increased level of chromosome aberrations in lymphocytes of peripheral blood. Average frequency of unstable aberrations (acentrics, dicentrics and centric rings) constituted about 0.4 per 100 cells (0.22 per 100 cells in controls) during all period of observation. Level of marker aberrations (dicentrics and centric rings) was increased almost all times of study and varied within 0.04-0.19 per 100 cell (0.03 in control group). The parallel investigation of frequency of stable aberrations by FISH method showed up their level about 3 times exceeding observed dicentrics level. Comparably higher indexes of cytogenetic disturbances were revealed in group exposed in utero during period of accident.     

Analysis of thyroid cancer data from the Ukraine after ’Chernobyl’ using a two-mutation carcinogenesis model

The thyroid cancer data of children in the northern regions of the Ukraine after the reactor accident at Chernobyl were combined with thyroid dose measurements in the same regions and analysed using a two- mutation carcinogenesis model. The best fit was obtained for radiation acting as an initiating agent, i.e. on the first mutation of the model. The observed relatively high increase of thyroid cancer incidence after 1990 in children exposed to radiation released after the reactor accident could be ascribed to the high thyroid doses and the relatively low background thyroid cancer incidence in children. The maximum annual incidence is predicted to occur fairly soon after the reactor accident, i.e. about 10 years. For adults, the predicted relative increase of annual thyroid cancers is much lower than for children younger than 20 years. The modelling results are used to derive risk estimates for radiation-induced thyroid cancer. These risk estimates are dependent on age at exposure, follow-up time and the background thyroid cancer incidence. The calculated excess absolute risk for a population of all ages is about one-third of that currently used by ICRP, but for children the calculated absolute risks are about a factor of 3 higher than derived in other epidemiological studies. The model results indicate that the excess absolute radiation risk per unit dose for children is about the same as or a little lower than that for adults. Received: 11 May 1999 / Accepted: 30 December 1999     

The effect of Chernobyl accident on the development of malignant diseases--situation after 20 years

The accident that occurred at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in 1986, released large quantities of radionuclides--among them radioiodine--into the atmosphere, thereby raising public concerns about its influence on thyroid structure and function, especially the development of malignancy. There were even reports about 700 deaths due to thyroid carcinoma in Russian Federation, Ukraine and Belarus, resulting from the accident. In this review we discussed the incidence of thyroid cancer in different parts of the world, especially in heavily contaminated countries, as Ukraine and Belarus, and the possible link between radioisotope activity in the thyroid and the development of malignancy. The study carried out in Minsk showed 40-fold increase of the incidence of thyroid cancer in the years 1986-1994, in comparison to the period 1977-1985. An increase of the incidence of thyroid cancer has generally been observed in many countries after the Chernobyl accident. We focused on the factors that may have an influence on this phenomenon, especially diagnostic tests, health care, social and environmental factors, like iodine level in water and soil. The results of molecular biology studies, e.g. RET translocation in carcinoma type RET/PTC1 in elderly and RET/PTC3 in children, and expression Ax1 and Gas6 in children were reviewed as well. We also mentioned other thyroid diseases, like nodular goitre, cysts, the disturbance of thyroid function and autoimmunity, possibly linked to the radiation after Chernobyl accident. Data obtained from the regions near Chernobyl showed no increased risk of other types of malignancy (leukaemia, Hodgkin's and non Hodgkin's lymphoma) in 1986-1996. In this article the epidemiology of thyroid diseases in Poland was also reviewed.     

Molecular cytogenetic characterization of chromosome 9-derived material in a human thyroid cancer cell line

The incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) increases significantly after exposure of the head and neck region to ionizing radiation, yet we know neither the steps involved in malignant transformation of thyroid epithelium nor the specific carcinogenic mode of action of radiation. Such increased tumor frequency became most evident in children after the 1986 nuclear accident in Chernobyl, Ukraine. In the eight years following the accident, the average incidence of childhood PTCs (chPTC) increased 70-fold in Belarus, 200-fold in Gomel, 10-fold in the Ukraine and 50-fold in Tschnigov, Kiev, Rovno, Shitomyr and Tscherkassy compared to the rate of about 1 tumor incidence per 106 children per year prior to 1986 (Likhtarev et al., 1995; Sobolev et al., 1997; Jacob et al., 1998). To study the etiology of radiation-induced thyroid cancer, we formed an international consortium to investigate chromosomal changes and altered gene expression in cases of post-Chernobyl chPTC. Our approach is based on karyotyping of primary cultures established from chPTC specimens, establishment of cell lines and studies of genotype-phenotype relationships through high resolution chromosome analysis, DNA/cDNA micro-array studies, and mouse xenografts that test for tumorigenicity. Here, we report the application of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH)-based techniques for the molecular cytogenetic characterization of a highly tumorigenic chPTC cell line, S48TK, and its subclones. Using chromosome 9 rearrangements as an example, we describe a new approach termed 'BAC-FISH' to rapidly delineate chromosomal breakpoints, an important step towards a better understanding of the formation of translocations and their functional consequences.     

Analysis of blood lymphocyte subsets in children living around Chernobyl exposed long-term to low doses of cesium-137 and various doses of iodine-131

Epidemiological studies have found that children living around Chernobyl have rates of respiratory tract illness that are higher than those seen in the area before the Chernobyl accident. The present study investigates the possible effects of radiation exposure on the composition of peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets in children living around Chernobyl. Two hundred nineteen healthy children and children suffering from recurrent respiratory diseases aged 6-14 years who received both low doses of radiation to the whole body from (137)Cs and various doses of radiation to the thyroid from (131)I as fallout from the accident were assessed 5 (1991) and 8-10 years (1994-1996) after the accident. A total of 148 healthy children and children suffering from recurrent respiratory diseases living in noncontaminated areas were also evaluated as controls. Children with recurrent respiratory diseases who lived around Chernobyl had a significantly lower percentage of T cells and a higher percentage of NK cells compared to control children with recurrent respiratory diseases during the study period. In contrast to the findings in 1991, a significant decrease in the percentage of helper-inducer cells was observed in children with recurrent respiratory diseases in 1994-1996. In contrast to 1991, there is a positive correlation between the percentage of helper-inducer cells, the helper-inducer/cytotoxic-suppressor cell ratio, and the dose of radiation to the thyroid of healthy children from (131)I in 1994-1996. There was a positive correlation between the dose of radiation to the thyroid from (131)I and the percentage of helper-inducer cells in children with recurrent respiratory diseases 5 years (1991) after the accident. Further, the dose of radiation to the thyroid from (131)I correlated negatively with the percentage of T and B cells and positively with the percentage of NK cells in children with recurrent respiratory diseases 8-10 years (1994-1996) after the accident. These results raise the possibility that long-term exposure to low doses of (137)Cs may have altered the composition of the T-cell subsets and NK cells in children with recurrent respiratory diseases. The differences in the composition of the peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets between healthy children and those with recurrent respiratory diseases may be attributed to long-term low-dose exposure of the whole body to radiation from (137)Cs and exposure of the thyroid to radiation from (131)I subsequent to the Chernobyl accident.