Phenology of British butterflies and climate change

Data from a national butterfly monitoring scheme were analysed to test for relationships between temperature and three phenological measures, duration of flight period and timing of both first and peak appearance. First appearances of most British butterflies has advanced in the last two decades and is strongly related to earlier peak appearance and, for multibrooded species, longer flight period. Mean dates of first and peak appearance are examined in relation to Manley's central England temperatures, using regression techniques. We predict that, in the absence of confounding factors, such as interactions with other organisms and land‐use change, climate warming of the order of 1 °C could advance first and peak appearance of most butterflies by 2–10 days.     

Climatic warming increases voltinism in European butterflies and moths

Climate change is altering geographical ranges, population dynamics and phenologies of many organisms. For ectotherms, increased ambient temperatures frequently have direct consequences for metabolic rates, activity patterns and developmental rates. Consequently, in many insect species both an earlier beginning and prolongation of seasonal duration occurred in parallel with recent global warming. However, from an ecological and evolutionary perspective, the number of generations (voltinism) and investment into each generation may be even more important than seasonality, since an additional generation per unit time may accelerate population growth or adaptation. Using a dataset extending back to the mid-nineteenth century, I report changes in the voltinism of butterfly and moth species of Central Europe. A significant proportion of 263 multi-voltine species showed augmented frequency of second and subsequent generations relative to the first generation in a warm period since 1980, and 44 species even increased the number of generations after 1980. Expected ecological consequences are diverse. Since multi-voltinism has been linked to insect outbreaks they include an increase in the abundance of herbivorous pests of agriculture and forestry. However, disruption of the developmental synchrony associated with multi-voltinism and host plant phenology may also reduce fitness, potentially having unexpected consequences for species of conservation concern. The ability of species to adapt evolutionarily to a changing environment may be facilitated by increased voltinism.     

Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin

Phenological changes in response to climatic warming have been detected across a wide range of organisms. Butterflies stand out as one of the most popular groups of indicators of climatic change, given that, firstly, they are poikilothermic and, secondly, have been the subject of thorough monitoring programmes in several countries for a number of decades. Here we provide for the first time strong evidence of phenological change as a consequence of recent climatic warming in butterflies at a Spanish site in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. By means of the widely used Butterfly Monitoring Scheme methodology, three different phenological parameters were analysed for the most common species to test for trends over time and relationships with temperature and precipitation. Between 1988 and 2002, there was a tendency for earlier first appearance dates in all 17 butterfly species tested, and significant advances in mean flight dates in 8 out of 19 species. On the other hand, the shape of the curve of adult emergence did not show any regular pattern. These changes paralleled an increase of 1–1.5°C in mean February, March and June temperatures. Likewise, a correlation analysis indicated the strong negative effect of spring temperature on phenological parameters (i.e. higher temperatures tended to produce phenological advances), and the opposite effect of precipitation in certain months. In addition, there was some evidence to indicate that phenological responses may differ between taxonomic lineages or species with similar diets. We discuss the consequences that these changes may have on species' population abundances, especially given the expected increase in aridity in the Mediterranean Basin caused by current climatic warming. We predict that varying degrees of phenological flexibility may account for differences in species' responses and, for multivoltine species, predict strong selection favouring local seasonal adaptations such as diapause phenomena or migratory behaviour.     

CLIMBER: Climatic niche characteristics of the butterflies in Europe

Detailed information on species’ ecological niche characteristics that can be related to declines and extinctions is indispensable for a better understanding of the relationship between the occurrence and performance of wild species and their environment and, moreover, for an improved assessment of the impacts of global change. Knowledge on species characteristics such as habitat requirements is already available in the ecological literature for butterflies, but information about their climatic requirements is still lacking. Here we present a unique dataset on the climatic niche characteristics of 397 European butterflies representing 91% of the European species (see Appendix). These characteristics were obtained by combining detailed information on butterfly distributions in Europe (which also led to the ‘Distribution Atlas of Butterflies in Europe’) and the corresponding climatic conditions. The presented dataset comprises information for the position and breadth of the following climatic niche characteristics: mean annual temperature, range in annual temperature, growing degree days, annual precipitation sum, range in annual precipitation and soil water content. The climatic niche position is indicated by the median and mean value for each climate variable across a species’ range, accompanied by the 95% confidence interval for the mean and the number of grid cells used for calculations. Climatic niche breadth is indicated by the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum values for each climatic variable across a species’ range. Database compilation was based on high quality standards and the data are ready to use for a broad range of applications.It is already evident that the information provided in this dataset is of great relevance for basic and applied ecology. Based on the species temperature index (STI, i.e. the mean temperature value per species), the community temperature index (CTI, i.e. the average STI value across the species in a community) was recently adopted as an indicator of climate change impact on biodiversity by the pan-European framework supporting the Convention on Biological Diversity (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators 2010) and has already been used in several scientific publications. The application potential of this database ranges from theoretical aspects such as assessments of past niche evolution or analyses of trait interdependencies to the very applied aspects of measuring, monitoring and projecting historical, ongoing and potential future responses to climate change using butterflies as an indicator.     

Divergent trends in the risk of spring frost damage to trees in Europe with recent warming

Frost events during the active growth period of plants can cause extensive frost damage with tremendous economic losses and dramatic ecological consequences. A common assumption is that climate warming may bring along a reduction in the frequency and severity of frost damage to vegetation. On the other hand, it has been argued that rising temperature in late winter and early spring might trigger the so called “false spring”, that is, early onset of growth that is followed by cold spells, resulting in increased frost damage. By combining daily gridded climate data and 1,489 k in situ phenological observations of 27 tree species from 5,565 phenological observation sites in Europe, we show here that temporal changes in the risk of spring frost damage with recent warming vary largely depending on the species and geographical locations. Species whose phenology was especially sensitive to climate warming tended to have increased risk of frost damage. Geographically, compared with continental areas, maritime and coastal areas in Europe were more exposed to increasing occurrence of frost and these late spring frosts were getting more severe in the maritime and coastal areas. Our results suggest that even though temperatures will be elevated in the future, some phenologically responsive species and many populations of a given species will paradoxically experience more frost damage in the future warming climate. More attention should be paid to the increased frost damage in responsive species and populations in maritime areas when developing strategies to mitigate the potential negative impacts of climate change on ecosystems in the near future.     

蝴蝶对全球气候变化响应的研究综述

全球气候变化以及生物对其响应已引起人们的广泛关注。在众多生物中,蝴蝶被公认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的指示物种之一。已有大量的研究结果表明,蝴蝶类群已经在地理分布范围、生活史特性以及生物多样性变化等方面对全球气候变化作出了响应。根据全球范围内蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应的研究资料,尤其是欧美一些长期监测的研究成果,综述了蝴蝶类群在物种分布格局、物候、繁殖、形态特征变化、种群动态以及物种多样性变化等方面对气候变化的响应特征,认为温度升高和极端天气是导致蝴蝶物种分布格局和种群动态变化的主要因素。在此基础上,展望了我国开展蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应方面研究的未来发展趋势。     

Winter warming effects on overwinter survival,energy use,and spring emergence of Cerotoma trifurcata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

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Observed trends in winegrape maturity in Australia

An extensive assessment of historical trends in winegrape maturity dates from vineyards located in geographically diverse winegrape growing regions in Australia has been undertaken. Records from 44 vineyard blocks, representing a range of varieties of Vitis vinifera L., were accessed. These comprise 33 short‐term datasets (average 17 years in length) and 11 long‐term datasets, ranging from 25 to 115 years in length (average 50 years). Time series of the day of the year grapes attain maturity were assessed. A trend to earlier maturity of winegrapes was observed in 43 of the 44 vineyard blocks. This trend was significant for six out of the 11 long‐term blocks for the complete time period for which records were available. For the period 1993–2009, 35 of the 44 vineyard blocks assessed displayed a statistically significant trend to earlier maturity. The average advance in the phenology was dependent on the time period of observation, with a more rapid advance over more recent decades. Over the more recent 1993–2009 period, the average advance was 1.7 days year, whereas for the period 1985–2009 the rate of advance was 0.8 days yr^?1 on average in the 10 long‐term vineyard blocks assessed for cross‐regional comparison. The trend to earlier maturity was associated with warming temperature trends for all of the blocks assessed in the study.     

Latitudinal clines in the timing and temperature-sensitivity of photoperiodic reproductive diapause in Drosophila montana

Reproductive diapause is a primary mechanism used by arthropods to synchronize their life cycle with seasonal changes in temperate regions. Our study species, Drosophila montana, represents the northern insect species where flies enter reproductive diapause under short day conditions and where the precise timing of diapause is crucial for both survival and offspring production. We have studied clinal variation in the critical day length for female diapause induction (CDL) and their overall susceptibility to enter diapause (diapause incidence), as well as the temperature sensitivity of these traits. The study was performed using multiple strains from four latitudinal clines of the species – short clines in Finland and Alaska and long clines in the Rocky Mountains and the western coast of North America – and from one population in Kamchatka, Russia. CDL showed strong latitudinal clines on both continents, decreasing by one hour per five degrees decline in latitude, on average. CDL also decreased in all populations along with an increase in fly rearing temperature postponing the diapause to later calendar time, the effects of temperature being stronger in southern than in northern population. Female diapause incidence was close to 100% under short day/low temperature conditions in all populations, but decreased below 50% even under short days in 19°C in the southern North American western coast populations and in 22°C in most populations. Comparing a diversity of climatic data for the studied populations showed that while CDL is under a tight photoperiodic regulation linked with latitude, its length depends also on climatic factors determining the growing season length. Overall, the study deepens our understanding of how spatial and environmental parameters affect the seasonal timing of an important biological event, reproductive diapause and helps to estimate the evolutionary potential of insect populations to survive in changing climatic conditions.     

Phylogenetic conservatism and trait correlates of spring phenological responses to climate change in northeast China

Climate change has resulted in major changes in plant phenology across the globe that includes leaf‐out date and flowering time. The ability of species to respond to climate change, in part, depends on their response to climate as a phenological cue in general. Species that are not phenologically responsive may suffer in the face of continued climate change. Comparative studies of phenology have found phylogeny to be a reliable predictor of mean leaf‐out date and flowering time at both the local and global scales. This is less true for flowering time response (i.e., the correlation between phenological timing and climate factors), while no study to date has explored whether the response of leaf‐out date to climate factors exhibits phylogenetic signal. We used a 52‐year observational phenological dataset for 52 woody species from the Forest Botanical Garden of Heilongjiang Province, China, to test phylogenetic signal in leaf‐out date and flowering time, as well as, the response of these two phenological traits to both temperature and winter precipitation. Leaf‐out date and flowering time were significantly responsive to temperature for most species, advancing, on average, 3.11 and 2.87 day/°C, respectively. Both leaf‐out and flowering, and their responses to temperature exhibited significant phylogenetic signals. The response of leaf‐out date to precipitation exhibited no phylogenetic signal, while flowering time response to precipitation did. Native species tended to have a weaker flowering response to temperature than non‐native species. Earlier leaf‐out species tended to have a greater response to winter precipitation. This study is the first to assess phylogenetic signal of leaf‐out response to climate change, which suggests, that climate change has the potential to shape the plant communities, not only through flowering sensitivity, but also through leaf‐out sensitivity.     

Rethinking false spring risk

Temperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events—often called false springs—are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research. Many false spring studies largely simplify the myriad complexities involved in assessing false spring risks and damage. While these studies have helped advance the field and may provide useful estimates at large scales, studies at the individual to community levels must integrate more complexity for accurate predictions of plant damage from late spring freezes. Here, we review current metrics of false spring, and how, when, and where plants are most at risk of freeze damage. We highlight how life stage, functional group, species differences in morphology and phenology, and regional climatic differences contribute to the damage potential of false springs. More studies aimed at understanding relationships among species tolerance and avoidance strategies, climatic regimes, and the environmental cues that underlie spring phenology would improve predictions at all biological levels. An integrated approach to assessing past and future spring freeze damage would provide novel insights into fundamental plant biology and offer more robust predictions as climate change progresses, which are essential for mitigating the adverse ecological and economic effects of false springs.     

Who flies first? – habitat‐specific phenological shifts of butterflies and orthopterans in the light of climate change: a case study from the south‐east Mediterranean

1. Insects undergo phenological change at different rates, showing no consistent trend between habitats, time periods, species or groups. Understanding how and why this variability occurs is crucial. 2. Phenological patterns of butterflies and Orthoptera were analysed using a novel approach of standardised major axis (SMA) analysis. It was investigated whether: (i) phenology (the mean date and duration of flight) of butterflies and Orthoptera changed from one survey (1998 and 1999 respectively) to another (2011), (ii) the rate at which phenology changed differed between taxa and (iii) phenological change was significantly different across habitat types (agriculture fields, grasslands, and forests). Using the 2011 dataset, we investigated relationships between habitat‐specific variables and species phenology. 3. For both groups, late‐emerging species had an advanced onset on the second survey while the duration showed no consistent trend for butterflies and did not change for Orthoptera. Although the rate at which phenology changed was consistent between the two groups, at the habitat level, a longer duration of flight period emerged for butterflies in agriculture fields while Orthoptera showed no differentiation in flight duration between habitats. We found an earlier emergence of butterflies in grasslands compared to forests, attributed to habitat‐specific temperature, whereas spatial variation in humidity had a significantly lower effect on butterflies' phenology in grasslands compared to forests. A gradual delay of butterfly appearances as the canopy cover increased was also found. 4. The utility of SMA analysis was demonstrated in phenological studies and evidence was detected that both habitat type and habitat‐specific variables refine species' phenological responses.     

Distribution of edaphic-endemic butterflies in the Sierra Nevada of California

Five edaphically-restricted or -endemic butterflies, mostly associated with serpentine, are shown to be distributed in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada in addition to their previously documented areas of occupancy in the California North Coast Ranges. Two species are absolutely limited by the edaphic restriction of their host plants, while the other three seemingly are not. The controversies concerning the origins of serpentine endemism in plants apply to butterflies as well. Long-term relictualism can presumably apply only at the metapopulation level, not the local population level, due to the frequency of fire in these habitats. Development and habitat-conversion trends pose a high risk to the long-term survival of these species in the Sierra Nevada.     

Plasticity in laying dates of Canada Geese in response to spring phenology

Observed phenological changes can be explained either by individual phenotypic plasticity or by evolutionary changes, but there is more evidence pointing towards phenotypic plasticity to explain the mechanism behind changes in bird phenology. However, most studies on phenology have been conducted on insectivorous bird species for which breeding is closely tied to temperature and insect emergence. In this study, we examined the consequences of climatic conditions on the nesting phenology of temperate breeding Canada Geese Branta canadensis maxima, which rely on a continuous food supply, during a 14‐year period (2003–16). We determined whether laying dates were plastically adjusted to spring environmental conditions, and whether this adjustment resulted in a laying date advancement. We further estimated the strength and shape of selection acting on breeding timing, by looking at the effect of laying date on the relative number of young successfully hatched in a nest. We found that Geese plastically adjusted their laying date to spring maximum temperature (and not to precipitation or ice break‐up), resulting in a 9‐day advancement of laying date in the population for that period. Laying date was also moderately repeatable (r = 0.23) and subject to directional selection, but stabilizing selection was negligible. We thus demonstrate how Canada Geese plastically adjust laying dates to temperature, which may further be beneficial to nesting success. Evolutionary change of laying date to selection related to climate change, however, is still possible.     

Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr^?1. Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi‐arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green‐up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.     

植物物候与气候研究进展

植物物候及其变化是多个环境因子综合影响的结果,其中气候是最重要、最活跃的环境因子。主要从气候环境角度分析了植物物候与气候以及气候变化间的相互关系,概述了国内外有关植物物候及物候模拟等方面的研究进展。表明,温度是影响物候变化最重要的因子;同时,水分成为胁迫因子时对物候的影响也十分重要。近50a左右,世界范围内的植物物候呈现出了春季物候提前,秋季物候推迟或略有推迟的特征,从而导致了多数植物生长季节的延长,并成为全球物候变化的趋势。全球气候变暖改变了植物开始和结束生长的日期,其中冬季、春季气温的升高使植物的春季物候提前是植物生长季延长的主要原因。目前对物候学的研究方向主要集中在探讨物候与气候变化之间的关系,而模型模拟是定量研究气候变化与植物物候之间关系的重要方式,国内外已经开发出多种物候模型来分析气候驱动与物候响应之间的因果关系。另外遥感资料的应用也为物候模型研究提供了新的方向。物候机理研究、物候与气候关系以及物候模型研究将是研究的重点。     

1982—2009年基于卫星数据的北半球中高纬地区植被春季物候动态及其与气候的关系

深入认识北半球植被物候在全球变暖背景下的动态变化特征,对于评估和预测生态系统结构和功能对气候变化的响应有重要的指示作用.遥感技术是获取北半球植被春季物候的最重要方法,但是由于物候提取算法的差异,目前还存在较大的不确定性.本文利用5种方法,基于卫星获取的归一化植被指数估算了北半球中高纬地区1982—2009年植被春季物候开始日期,分析了该日期的多年动态变化的时空特征,并探讨了气候变化对春季物候变化的影响.结果表明: 研究区植被春季物候开始日期呈现提前趋势,研究期间提前(4.0±0.8) d,其中,欧亚大陆提前速率为(0.22±0.04) d·a^-1,显著高于北美大陆的变化速率(0.03±0.02 d·a^-1);不同植被类型的变化趋势不同,5种方法都显示草地表现为显著提前趋势,而林地的提前趋势不显著.区域平均的植被春季物候开始日期的年际波动主要受春季温度的变化所驱动(r² =0.61,P<0.001), 温度每上升1 ℃,可以导致春季物候提前(3.2±0.5) d,而春季降水影响不显著(P>0.05).