Predicting ecological consequences of marine top predator declines

Recent studies document unprecedented declines in marine top predators that can initiate trophic cascades. Predicting the wider ecological consequences of these declines requires understanding how predators influence communities by inflicting mortality on prey and inducing behavioral modifications (risk effects). Both mechanisms are important in marine communities, and a sole focus on the effects of predator-inflicted mortality might severely underestimate the importance of predators. We outline direct and indirect consequences of marine predator declines and propose an integrated predictive framework that includes risk effects, which appear to be strongest for long-lived prey species and when resources are abundant. We conclude that marine predators should be managed for the maintenance of both density- and risk-driven ecological processes, and not demographic persistence alone.     

Socio-economic drivers of freshwater fish declines in a changing climate: a New Zealand perspective

New Zealand has a freshwater fish fauna characterized by high levels of national and local endemism and which is threatened by anthropogenic stressors including habitat destruction or deterioration, commercial harvest, pollution and interactions with invasive exotic species. Significant expansion of New Zealand's dairy production has recently created further deterioration of lowland water quality and greater pressure for water allocation in drier eastern regions of the South Island. New Zealand has large freshwater resources and its climate is predicted to experience less dramatic changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation than many other regions of the world as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Predicted changes in regional climate and further expansion of the dairy industry, however, will impose similar pressures on freshwater resources in northern New Zealand to those already acting to threaten freshwater biodiversity in the eastern South Island.     

Foraging in a changing environment: habitat shifts of an oceanic predator over the last half century

Spatial modelling studies stress the importance of predicting future species distribution in changing environments, but it is also important to establish historical distribution ranges of species to provide baseline conditions for understanding distribution shifts. We focused on pelagic ecosystems, the largest ecosystem on Earth. Based on boosting algorithms, we reconstructed the foraging patterns of an oceanic predator, wandering albatross Diomedea exulans, in the highly dynamic Southern Ocean over the last half century. To access the unobserved past oceanographic conditions, we used simulations of the OPA‐PISCES oceanic model for the 1958–2001 period. Firstly, we validated the simulated oceanographic variables (sea surface temperature and height, wind speed and chlorophyll a) for the 1998–2001 period with remotely sensed oceanographic data, which were highly correlated, except chlorophyll a. Secondly, we developed two habitat models (based on simulated and observed oceanographic variables) describing the foraging probability of albatrosses. We detected no statistically significant differences between the two models and predictions of both models matched the observed distribution patterns reasonably. Finally, we projected the most likely historical key pelagic habitats of albatross for the 1958 to 2001 period and characterised recurrent, occasional and unfavourable foraging areas in a decadal basis based on average predictions and their standard deviations. Our findings 1) provided a historical baseline (1958–1968) of recurrent, occasional and unfavourable foraging habitats, 2) evidenced a progressive habitat shift the following decades driven by a propagation of sea surface height from SE South Africa towards Antarctica from 1958 to 2001 and 3) measured habitat change rates of wandering albatross over the last half century. To our knowledge, our study provides the first quantitative long‐term assessment of the spatial response of a marine top predator to changing pelagic habitats of the Southern Ocean and highlighted the oceanographic mechanisms involved, offering new insights on future effects of climate change on the pelagic realm.     

Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability

The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in different regional food webs, there is the potential to make predictions about future change scenarios.     

Diet quality in a wild grazer declines under the threat of an ambush predator

Predators influence prey populations not only through predation itself, but also indirectly through prompting changes in prey behaviour. The behavioural adjustments of prey to predation risk may carry nutritional costs, but this has seldom been studied in the wild in large mammals. Here, we studied the effects of an ambush predator, the African lion (Panthera leo), on the diet quality of plains zebras (Equus quagga) in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. We combined information on movements of both prey and predators, using GPS data, and measurements of faecal crude protein, an index of diet quality in the prey. Zebras which had been in close proximity to lions had a lower quality diet, showing that adjustments in behaviour when lions are within short distance carry nutritional costs. The ultimate fitness cost will depend on the frequency of predator–prey encounters and on whether bottom-up or top-down forces are more important in the prey population. Our finding is the first attempt to our knowledge to assess nutritionally mediated risk effects in a large mammalian prey species under the threat of an ambush predator, and brings support to the hypothesis that the behavioural effects of predation induce important risk effects on prey populations.     

Plant phenotypic plasticity in a changing climate

Climate change is altering the availability of resources and the conditions that are crucial to plant performance. One way plants will respond to these changes is through environmentally induced shifts in phenotype (phenotypic plasticity). Understanding plastic responses is crucial for predicting and managing the effects of climate change on native species as well as crop plants. Here, we provide a toolbox with definitions of key theoretical elements and a synthesis of the current understanding of the molecular and genetic mechanisms underlying plasticity relevant to climate change. By bringing ecological, evolutionary, physiological and molecular perspectives together, we hope to provide clear directives for future research and stimulate cross-disciplinary dialogue on the relevance of phenotypic plasticity under climate change.     

Decadal-scale rebuilding of predator biomass in Philippine marine reserves

No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) provide hope that local carrying capacity may be partially restored if reserves are protected long enough. How long is long enough? We assess the duration of protection required for populations of large predatory reef fish in marine reserves to attain new steady states. We monitored biomass of large predatory fish in two marine reserves at Sumilon and Apo Islands, Philippines, almost annually for 26 years (1983–2009), and fit a logistic model to the data. As duration of reserve protection increased, biomass of predatory fish approached an asymptote, although the models suggest that 20–40 years of protection is required to attain new steady states. Thus, for local carrying capacity to be rebuilt, no-take protection must be effective on decadal timescales.     

Predicted insect diversity declines under climate change in an already impoverished region

Being ectotherms, insects are predicted to suffer more severely from climate change than warm-blooded animals. We forecast possible changes in diversity and composition of butterflies, grasshoppers and dragonflies in Belgium under increasingly severe climate change scenarios for the year 2100. Two species distribution modelling techniques (Generalised Linear Models and Generalised Additive Models), were combined via a conservative version of the ensemble forecasting strategy to predict present-day and future species distributions, considering the species as potentially present only if both modelling techniques made such a prediction. All models applied were fair to good, according to the AUC (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic plot), sensitivity and specificity model performance measures based on model evaluation data. Butterfly and grasshopper diversity were predicted to decrease significantly in all scenarios and species-rich locations were predicted to move towards higher altitudes. Dragonfly diversity was predicted to decrease significantly in all scenarios, but dragonfly-rich locations were predicted to move upwards only in the less severe scenarios. The largest turnover rates were predicted to occur at higher altitudes for butterflies and grasshoppers, but at intermediate altitudes for dragonflies. Our results highlight the challenge of building conservation strategies under climate change, because the changes in the sites important for different groups will not overlap, increasing the area needed for protection. We advocate that possible conservation and policy measures to mitigate the potentially strong impacts of climate change on insect diversity in Belgium should be much more pro-active and flexible than is the case presently.     

应对全球气候变化的昆虫学研究

大气二氧化碳浓度升高、温度上升、降雨分布不均、灾害性天气出现频次增加等全球气候变化,深刻改变着农林生态系统昆虫群落的组成结构、功能和演替,使昆虫分布区域扩大、发生世代增多、生态适应性变异,从而影响了原有的植物-害虫-天敌间内在联系和各营养层间的固有平衡格局,最终导致一些害虫暴发成灾,一些昆虫种群数量下降,甚至一些昆虫物...     

Introduction: food crops in a changing climate

Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Ni?o events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given.     

Multi-scale sampling to evaluate assemblage dynamics in an oceanic marine reserve

To resolve the capacity of Marine Protected Areas (MPA) to enhance fish productivity it is first necessary to understand how environmental conditions affect the distribution and abundance of fishes independent of potential reserve effects. Baseline fish production was examined from 2002–2004 through ichthyoplankton sampling in a large (10,878 km²) Southern Californian oceanic marine reserve, the Cowcod Conservation Area (CCA) that was established in 2001, and the Southern California Bight as a whole (238,000 km² CalCOFI sampling domain). The CCA assemblage changed through time as the importance of oceanic-pelagic species decreased between 2002 (La Niña) and 2003 (El Niño) and then increased in 2004 (El Niño), while oceanic species and rockfishes displayed the opposite pattern. By contrast, the CalCOFI assemblage was relatively stable through time. Depth, temperature, and zooplankton explained more of the variability in assemblage structure at the CalCOFI scale than they did at the CCA scale. CalCOFI sampling revealed that oceanic species impinged upon the CCA between 2002 and 2003 in association with warmer offshore waters, thus explaining the increased influence of these species in the CCA during the El Nino years. Multi-scale, spatially explicit sampling and analysis was necessary to interpret assemblage dynamics in the CCA and likely will be needed to evaluate other focal oceanic marine reserves throughout the world.     

Re-establishing a saltmarsh vegetation structure in a changing climate

Summary A major management decision in an ecological restoration or rehabilitation project is whether supplementary planting or natural vegetation regeneration is the better alternative or if a combination can be applied. Management decisions are further complicated when the project involves saltmarsh as tidal cycles, the effects of salinity and sea level rise add to the complexity of decisions. The ecological values of the saltmarsh community in Australia were only recognized relatively recently but the endangered ecological community listing in 1994 (under the New South Wales Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995) highlighted the need to protect, rehabilitate and restore saltmarsh. This project measured vegetation change after soil profile reconstruction in saltmarsh surrounding Sponsors Lagoon, Fingal Peninsula in north coastal New South Wales, Australia. Restored sites (planted and non‐planted) were compared with nearby disturbed (control) and reference sites. The dominant species in the community to be restored were Saltwater Couch (Sporobolus virginicus), Suaeda (Suaeda australis), Sarcocornia (Sarcocornia quinqueflora ssp. quinqueflora and Sea Rush (Juncus kraussii ssp. australiensis). Changes in percentage cover of the species in the first three years after soil reconstruction work showed that the dominant Saltwater Couch established only from vegetative growth arising from remnant vegetation but there was strong seedling regeneration of several other species. It was concluded that planting is important for species that are less vagile, in larger, denuded parts of this site where their resilience is lower and natural regeneration potential is limited. An understanding of the biology of the individual species is therefore likely to be essential in saltmarsh restoration projects. A combination of techniques, incorporating planting of slower establishing species and encouragement of seed‐germinated colonizers is useful for initial site stabilization and progressive ecological recovery at this site. The inclusion of migration zones in the planning phase will allow for the long‐term viability of this restoration project.     

Complex agro-ecosystems for food security in a changing climate

Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers world wide. Alternatively, cocultures consisting of assemblages of plant and animal species can support ecological processes of nutrient cycling and pest control, which may lead to increasing yields and declining susceptibility to extreme weather conditions with increasing complexity of the systems. Here we show that enhancing the complexity of a rice production system by adding combinations of compost, azolla, ducks, and fish resulted in strongly increased grain yields and revenues in a season with extremely adverse weather conditions on East Java, Indonesia. We found that azolla, duck, and fish increased plant nutrient content, tillering and leaf area expansion, and strongly reduced the density of six different pests. In the most complex system comprising all components the highest grain yield was obtained. The net revenues of this system from sales of rice grain, fish, and ducks, after correction for extra costs, were 114% higher than rice cultivation with only compost as fertilizer. These results provide more insight in the agro-ecological processes and demonstrate how complex agricultural systems can contribute to food security in a changing climate. If smallholders can be trained to manage these systems and are supported for initial investments by credits, their livelihoods can be improved while producing in an ecologically benign way.     

The timing of life-history events in a changing climate

Although empirical and theoretical studies suggest that climate influences the timing of life-history events in animals and plants, correlations between climate and the timing of events such as egg-laying, migration or flowering do not reveal the mechanisms by which natural selection operates on life-history events. We present a general autoregressive model of the timing of life-history events in relation to variation in global climate that, like autoregressive models of population dynamics, allows for a more mechanistic understanding of the roles of climate, resources and competition. We applied the model to data on 50 years of annual dates of first flowering by three species of plants in 26 populations covering 4 degrees of latitude in Norway. In agreement with earlier studies, plants in most populations and all three species bloomed earlier following warmer winters. Moreover, our model revealed that earlier blooming reflected increasing influences of resources and density-dependent population limitation under climatic warming. The insights available from the application of this model to phenological data in other taxa will contribute to our understanding of the roles of endogenous versus exogenous processes in the evolution of the timing of life-history events in a changing climate.     

The anatomy of predator-prey dynamics in a changing climate

Humans are increasingly influencing global climate and regional predator assemblages, yet a mechanistic understanding of how climate and predation interact to affect fluctuations in prey populations is currently lacking. Here we develop a modelling framework to explore the effects of different predation strategies on the response of age-structured prey populations to a changing climate. We show that predation acts in opposition to temporal correlation in climatic conditions to suppress prey population fluctuations. Ambush predators such as lions are shown to be more effective at suppressing fluctuations in their prey than cursorial predators such as wolves, which chase down prey over long distances, because they are more effective predators on prime-aged adults. We model climate as a Markov process and explore the consequences of future changes in climatic autocorrelation for population dynamics. We show that the presence of healthy predator populations will be particularly important in dampening prey population fluctuations if temporal correlation in climatic conditions increases in the future.     

Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming

Climate warming and associated sea ice reductions in Antarctica have modified habitat conditions for some species. These include the congeneric Adélie, chinstrap and gentoo penguins, which now demonstrate remarkable population responses to regional warming. However, inconsistencies in the direction of population changes between species at different study sites complicate the understanding of causal processes. Here, we show that at the South Orkney Islands where the three species breed sympatrically, the less ice‐adapted gentoo penguins increased significantly in numbers over the last 26 years, whereas chinstrap and Adélie penguins both declined. These trends occurred in parallel with regional long‐term warming and significant reduction in sea ice extent. Periodical warm events, with teleconnections to the tropical Pacific, caused cycles in sea ice leading to reduced prey biomass, and simultaneous interannual population decreases in the three penguin species. With the loss of sea ice, Adélie penguins were less buffered against the environment, their numbers fluctuated greatly and their population response was strong and linear. Chinstrap penguins, considered to be better adapted to ice‐free conditions, were affected by discrete events of locally increased ice cover, but showed less variable, nonlinear responses to sea ice loss. Gentoo penguins were temporarily affected by negative anomalies in regional sea ice, but persistent sea ice reductions were likely to increase their available niche, which is likely to be substantially segregated from that of their more abundant congeners. Thus, the regional consequences of global climate perturbations on the sea ice phenology affect the marine ecosystem, with repercussions for penguin food supply and competition for resources. Ultimately, variability in penguin populations with warming reflects the local balance between penguin adaptation to ice conditions and trophic‐mediated changes cascading from global climate forcing.