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1.
Phylogenetic diversity is a measure for describing how much of an evolutionary tree is spanned by a subset of species. If one applies this to the unknown subset of current species that will still be present at some future time, then this ‘future phylogenetic diversity’ provides a measure of the impact of various extinction scenarios in biodiversity conservation. In this paper, we study the distribution of future phylogenetic diversity under a simple model of extinction (a generalized ‘field of bullets’ model). We show that the distribution of future phylogenetic diversity converges to a normal distribution as the number of species grows, under mild conditions, which are necessary. We also describe an algorithm to compute the distribution efficiently, provided the edge lengths are integral, and briefly outline the significance of our findings for biodiversity conservation.  相似文献   

2.
Biodiversity loss not only implies the loss of species but also entails losses in other dimensions of biodiversity, such as functional, phylogenetic and interaction diversity. Yet, each of those facets of biodiversity may respond differently to extinctions. Here, we examine how extinction, driven by climate and land-use changes may affect those different facets of diversity by combining empirical data on anuran–prey interaction networks, species distribution modelling and extinction simulations in assemblages representing four Neotropical ecoregions. We found a mismatch in the response of functional, phylogenetic and interaction diversity to extinction. In spite of high network robustness to extinction, the effects on interaction diversity were stronger than those on phylogenetic and functional diversity, declining linearly with species loss. Although it is often assumed that interaction patterns are reflected by functional diversity, assessing species interactions may be necessary to understand how species loss translates into the loss of ecosystem functions.  相似文献   

3.
The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic groups and test the assumption that preserving ED and PD also protects rare species and ecosystem services. Such research will be useful to inform and guide the conservation of Earth's biodiversity and the services it provides.  相似文献   

4.
There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains – an important African biodiversity hotspot – and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ranks and phylogeny. We provide evidence for both taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity in extinction risk. However, we found that selectivity varies with IUCN extinction risk category. Vulnerable species are more closely related than expected by chance, whereas endangered and critically endangered species are not significantly clustered on the phylogeny. We suggest that the general observation for taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity (i.e. phylogenetic signal, the tendency of closely related species to share similar traits) in extinction risks is therefore largely driven by vulnerable species, and not necessarily the most highly threatened. We also used information on altitudinal distribution and climate to generate a predictive model of at-risk species richness, and found that greater threatened species richness is found at higher altitude, allowing for more informed conservation decision making. Our results indicate that evolutionary history can help predict plant susceptibility to extinction threats in the hyper-diverse but woefully-understudied Eastern Arc Mountains, and illustrate the contribution of phylogenetic approaches in conserving African floristic biodiversity where detailed ecological and evolutionary data are often lacking.  相似文献   

5.
Coral reef ecosystems are under a variety of threats from global change and anthropogenic disturbances that are reducing the number and type of coral species on reefs. Coral reefs support upwards of one third of all marine species of fish, so the loss of coral habitat may have substantial consequences to local fish diversity. We posit that the effects of habitat degradation will be most severe in coral regions with highest biodiversity of fishes due to greater specialization by fishes for particular coral habitats. Our novel approach to this important but untested hypothesis was to conduct the same field experiment at three geographic locations across the Indo-Pacific biodiversity gradient (Papua New Guinea; Great Barrier Reef, Australia; French Polynesia). Specifically, we experimentally explored whether the response of local fish communities to identical changes in diversity of habitat-providing corals was independent of the size of the regional species pool of fishes. We found that the proportional reduction (sensitivity) in fish biodiversity to loss of coral diversity was greater for regions with larger background species pools, reflecting variation in the degree of habitat specialization of fishes across the Indo-Pacific diversity gradient. This result implies that habitat-associated fish in diversity hotspots are at greater risk of local extinction to a given loss of habitat diversity compared to regions with lower species richness. This mechanism, related to the positive relationship between habitat specialization and regional biodiversity, and the elevated extinction risk this poses for biodiversity hotspots, may apply to species in other types of ecosystems.  相似文献   

6.
There is an increasing interest in measuring loss of phylogenetic diversity and evolutionary distinctiveness which together depict the evolutionary history of conservation interest. Those losses are assessed through the evolutionary relationships between species and species threat status or extinction probabilities. Yet, available information is not always sufficient to quantify the threat status of species that are then classified as data deficient. Data‐deficient species are a crucial issue as they cause incomplete assessments of the loss of phylogenetic diversity and evolutionary distinctiveness. We aimed to explore the potential bias caused by data‐deficient species in estimating four widely used indices: HEDGE, EDGE, PDloss, and Expected PDloss. Second, we tested four different widely applicable and multitaxa imputation methods and their potential to minimize the bias for those four indices. Two methods are based on a best‐ vs. worst‐case extinction scenarios, one is based on the frequency distribution of threat status within a taxonomic group and one is based on correlates of extinction risks. We showed that data‐deficient species led to important bias in predictions of evolutionary history loss (especially high underestimation when they were removed). This issue was particularly important when data‐deficient species tended to be clustered in the tree of life. The imputation method based on correlates of extinction risks, especially geographic range size, had the best performance and enabled us to improve risk assessments. Solving threat status of DD species can fundamentally change our understanding of loss of phylogenetic diversity. We found that this loss could be substantially higher than previously found in amphibians, squamate reptiles, and carnivores. We also identified species that are of high priority for the conservation of evolutionary distinctiveness.  相似文献   

7.

Aim

Land use is a main driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. However, quantifying its effects on global plant diversity remains a challenge due to the limited availability of data on the distributions of vascular plant species and their responses to land use. Here, we estimated the global extinction threat of land use to vascular plant species based on a novel integration of an ecoregion-level species-area model and the relative endemism richness of the ecoregions.

Location

Global.

Methods

First, we assessed ecoregion-level extinction threats using a countryside species–area relationship model based on responses of local plant richness to land use types and intensities and a high-resolution global land use map. Next, we estimated global species extinction threat by multiplying the relative endemism richness of each ecoregion with the ecoregion-level extinction threats.

Results

Our results indicate that 11% of vascular plant species are threatened with global extinction. We found the largest extinction threats in the Neotropic and Palearctic realms, mainly due to cropland of minimal and high intensity, respectively.

Main Conclusions

Our novel integration of the countryside species–area relationship and the relative endemism richness allows for the identification of hotspots of global extinction threat, as well as the contribution of specific land use types and intensities to this threat. Our findings inform where the development of measures to protect or restore plant diversity globally are most needed.  相似文献   

8.
Biodiversity loss can be accelerated by human consumption in regions that are far removed from habitat degradation because of economic globalization, but no study has directly quantified the effects of global trade on extinction risks at a global scale with consideration for species differences. We propose a novel biodiversity footprint index based on bird extinction risks to evaluate the effects of global wood production and trade on biodiversity. Using 536 endangered bird species threatened by wood harvesting and logging, we calculated the “quasi-extinction” probabilities, that is, the probabilities that population sizes become lower than an extinction threshold after habitat loss based on initial population sizes and forest habitat loss rates. We then used bilateral wood trade data to link the biodiversity impacts in wood exporters to wood importers. We found that if recent trends in forest cover loss continue until 2100, bird species in Brazil would be the most rapidly and heavily affected by wood production and trade, followed by those in Indonesia; these two countries alone would account for about half of all global bird extinctions. Large-scale wood importers (i.e., China, Japan, and the United States) significantly elevate overseas extinction risks and, simultaneously, reduce domestic impacts, indicating a heavy responsibility of these countries for global biodiversity loss. We also conducted a scenario analysis, which showed that the total projected number of extinct species would not decrease if each country produced the amount of wood materials necessary to meet current consumption levels. This is because bird extinction risks in tropical wood importers, such as Mexico and the Philippines, as well as Japan and China will increase if these countries increase domestic wood production. Our biodiversity footprint index is useful to identify countries whose bird species are highly affected by wood production and trade, and to quantify the role of wood trade in bird species extinctions. Additional scenario analyses are needed to establish effective patterns of wood production and consumption for bird biodiversity conservation.  相似文献   

9.
The likely future extinction of various species will result in a decline of two quantities: species richness and phylogenetic diversity (PD, or ‘evolutionary history’). Under a simple stochastic model of extinction, we can estimate the expected loss of these quantities under two conservation strategies: An ‘egalitarian’ approach, which reduces the extinction risk of all species, and a ‘targeted’ approach that concentrates conservation effort on the most endangered taxa. For two such strategies that are constrained to experience the same expected loss of species richness, we ask which strategy results in a greater expected loss of PD. Using mathematical analysis and simulation, we describe how the strategy (egalitarian versus targeted) that minimizes the expected loss of PD depends on the distribution of endangered status across the tips of the tree, and the interaction of this status with the branch lengths. For a particular data set consisting of a phylogenetic tree of 62 lemur species, with extinction risks estimated from the IUCN ‘Red List’, we show that both strategies are virtually equivalent, though randomizing these extinction risks across the tip taxa can cause either strategy to outperform the other. In the second part of the paper, we describe an algorithm to determine how extreme the loss of PD for a given decline in species richness can be. We illustrate the use of this algorithm on the lemur tree.  相似文献   

10.
To reduce the accelerating rate of phylogenetic diversity loss, many studies have searched for mechanisms that could explain why certain species are at risk, whereas others are not. In particular, it has been demonstrated that species might be affected by both extrinsic threat factors as well as intrinsic biological traits that could render a species more sensitive to extinction; here, we focus on extrinsic factors. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature developed a new classification of threat types, including climate change, urbanization, pollution, agriculture and aquaculture, and harvesting/hunting. We have used this new classification to analyze two main factors that could explain the expected future loss of mammalian phylogenetic diversity: 1. differences in the type of threats that affect mammals and 2. differences in the number of major threats that accumulate for a single species. Our results showed that Cetartiodactyla, Diprotodontia, Monotremata, Perissodactyla, Primates, and Proboscidea could lose a high proportion of their current phylogenetic diversity in the coming decades. In contrast, Chiroptera, Didelphimorphia, and Rodentia could lose less phylogenetic diversity than expected if extinctions were random. Some mammalian clades, including Marsupiala, Chiroptera, and a subclade of Primates, are affected by particular threat types, most likely due solely to their geographic locations and associations with particular habitats. However, regardless of the geography, habitat, and taxon considered, it is not the threat type, but the threat diversity that determines the extinction risk for species and clades. Thus, some mammals might be randomly located in areas subjected to a large diversity of threats; they might also accumulate detrimental traits that render them sensitive to different threats, which is a characteristic that could be associated with large body size. Any action reducing threat diversity is expected to have a significant impact on future mammalian phylogeny.  相似文献   

11.
A sixth great mass extinction is ongoing due to the direct and indirect effects of human pressures. However, not all lineages are affected equally. From an anthropocentric perspective, it is often purported that humans hold a unique place on Earth. Here, we show that our current impacts on the natural world risk realizing that expectation. We simulated species loss on the mammalian phylogenetic tree, informed by species current extinction risks. We explored how Homo sapiens could become isolated in the tree if species currently threatened with extinction disappeared. We analyzed correlates of mammal extinctions risks that may drive this isolation pattern. We show that, within mammals, and more particularly within primates, extinction risks increase with the number of known threat types, and decrease with geographic range size. Extinctions increase with species body mass, trophic level, and the median longitudinal extent of each species range in mammals but not within primates. The risks of extinction are frequently high among H. sapiens close relatives. Pruning threatened primates, including apes (Hominidae, Hylobatidae), from the tree of life will lead to our species being among those with the fewest close relatives. If no action is taken, we will thus not only lose crucial biodiversity for the preservation of Earth ecosystems, but also a key living reference to what makes us human.  相似文献   

12.
Huang D 《PloS one》2012,7(3):e34459
A substantial proportion of the world's living species, including one-third of the reef-building corals, are threatened with extinction and in pressing need of conservation action. In order to reduce biodiversity loss, it is important to consider species' contribution to evolutionary diversity along with their risk of extinction for the purpose of setting conservation priorities. Here I reconstruct the most comprehensive tree of life for the order Scleractinia (1,293 species) that includes all 837 living reef species, and employ a composite measure of phylogenetic distinctiveness and extinction risk to identify the most endangered lineages that would not be given top priority on the basis of risk alone. The preservation of these lineages, not just the threatened species, is vital for safeguarding evolutionary diversity. Tests for phylogeny-associated patterns show that corals facing elevated extinction risk are not clustered on the tree, but species that are susceptible, resistant or resilient to impacts such as bleaching and disease tend to be close relatives. Intensification of these threats or extirpation of the endangered lineages could therefore result in disproportionate pruning of the coral tree of life.  相似文献   

13.
周韩洁  杨入瑄  李嵘 《广西植物》2022,42(10):1694-1702
全球气候变化与人为活动等因素导致的生物多样性丧失,引起了全球各界对生物多样性保护的高度关注。传统生物多样性保护主要对物种、特有种、受威胁物种的种类组成及其分布模式开展研究,忽视了进化历史在生物多样性保护中的作用。云南是全球生物多样性热点地区的交汇区,生物多样性的保护历来受到广泛关注,为了更好地探讨云南生物多样性的保护措施,该研究以云南被子植物菊类分支物种为研究对象,基于物种间的演化关系,结合其地理分布,从进化历史的角度探讨物种、特有种、受威胁物种的种类组成及系统发育组成的分布格局,并整合自然保护地的空间分布,识别生物多样性的重点保护区域。结果表明:云南被子植物菊类分支的物种、特有种及受威胁物种的物种密度与系统发育多样性均显著正相关;通过零模型分析发现,由南向北标准化系统发育多样性逐渐降低;云南南部、东南部、西北部是云南被子植物菊类分支的重点保护区域,加强这些区域的保护,将最大化地保护生物多样性的进化历史和进化潜能。由此可见,融合进化历史信息的植物多样性格局分析不仅有助于更加深入地理解植物多样性的形成与演变,也为生物多样性保护策略的制定提供更多的思路。  相似文献   

14.
The global extinction crisis demands immediate action to conserve species at risk. However, if entire clades such as superfamilies are at risk due to shared evolutionary history, a shift towards conserving clades rather than individual species may be needed. Using phylogenetic autocorrelation analysis, we demonstrate that multiple kinds of extinction threat clump within the amphibian tree of life. Our study provides insight into how these threats may collectively influence the extinction risk of whole clades, consistent with the supposition that related species, with similar traits, share an intrinsic vulnerability to common kinds of threat. Most strikingly, we find a significant concentration of 'enigmatic' decline and critically endangered status within families of the hyloid frogs. This phylogenetic clumping of risk is also geographically concentrated, with most threats found in Central and South America, and Australia, coinciding with reported outbreaks of chytridiomycosis. We speculate that the phylogenetic clumping of threat represents, in part, shared extinction proneness due to shared evolutionary history. However, even if the phylogenetic clumping of threat were simply a by-product of shared geography, this concordance between phylogenetic and geographical patterns represents a prime opportunity. Where practical, we should implement conservation plans that focus on biogeographical regions where threatened clades occur, thereby improving our ability to conserve species. This approach could outperform the usual triage approach of saving individual species after they have become critically endangered.  相似文献   

15.
Almost 90% of global bird extinctions have occurred on islands. The loss of endemic species from island systems can dramatically alter evolutionary trajectories of insular species biodiversity, resulting in a loss of evolutionary diversity important for species adaptation to changing environments. The Western Indian Ocean islands have been the scene of evolution for a large number of endemic parrots. Since their discovery in the 16th century, many of these parrots have become extinct or have declined in numbers. Alongside the extinction of species, a number of the Indian Ocean islands have experienced colonization by highly invasive parrots, such as the Ring‐necked Parakeet Psittacula krameri. Such extinctions and invasions can, on an evolutionary timescale, drive changes in species composition, genetic diversity and turnover in phylogenetic diversity, all of which can have important impacts on species potential for adaptation to changing environmental and climatic conditions. Using mtDNA cytochrome b data, we resolve the taxonomic placement of three extinct Indian Ocean parrots: the Rodrigues Psittacula exsul, Seychelles Psittacula wardi and Reunion Parakeets Psittacula eques. This case study quantifies how the extinction of these species has resulted in lost historical endemic phylogenetic diversity and reduced levels of species richness, and illustrates how it is being replaced by non‐endemic invasive forms such as the Ring‐necked Parakeet. Finally, we use our phylogenetic framework to identify and recommend a number of phylogenetically appropriate ecological replacements for the extinct parrots. Such replacements may be introduced once invasive forms have been cleared, to rejuvenate ecosystem function and restore lost phylogenetic diversity.  相似文献   

16.
The South China Sea in the Central Indo-Pacific is a large semi-enclosed marine region that supports an extraordinary diversity of coral reef organisms (including stony corals), which varies spatially across the region. While one-third of the world’s reef corals are known to face heightened extinction risk from global climate and local impacts, prospects for the coral fauna in the South China Sea region amidst these threats remain poorly understood. In this study, we analyse coral species richness, rarity, and phylogenetic diversity among 16 reef areas in the region to estimate changes in species and evolutionary diversity during projected anthropogenic extinctions. Our results show that richness, rarity, and phylogenetic diversity differ considerably among reef areas in the region, and that their outcomes following projected extinctions cannot be predicted by species diversity alone. Although relative rarity and threat levels are high in species-rich areas such as West Malaysia and the Philippines, areas with fewer species such as northern Vietnam and Paracel Islands stand to lose disproportionately large amounts of phylogenetic diversity. Our study quantifies various biodiversity components of each reef area to inform conservation planners and better direct sparse resources to areas where they are needed most. It also provides a critical biological foundation for targeting reefs that should be included in a regional network of marine protected areas in the South China Sea.  相似文献   

17.
The idea that the number of species within an area is limited by a specific capacity of that area to host species is old yet controversial. Here, we show that the concept of carrying capacity for species richness can be as useful as the analogous concept in population biology. Many lines of empirical evidence indicate the existence of limits of species richness, at least at large spatial and phylogenetic scales. However, available evidence does not support the idea of diversity limits based on limited niche space; instead, carrying capacity should be understood as a stable equilibrium of biodiversity dynamics driven by diversity‐dependent processes of extinction, speciation and/or colonization. We argue that such stable equilibria exist even if not all resources are used and if increasing species richness increases the ability of a community to use resources. Evaluating the various theoretical approaches to modelling diversity dynamics, we conclude that a fruitful approach for macroecology and biodiversity science is to develop theory that assumes that the key mechanism leading to stable diversity equilibria is the negative diversity dependence of per‐species extinction rates, driven by the fact that population sizes of species must decrease with an increasing number of species owing to limited energy availability. The recently proposed equilibrium theory of biodiversity dynamics is an example of such a theory, which predicts that equilibrium species richness (i.e., carrying capacity) is determined by the interplay of the total amount of available resources, the ability of communities to use those resources, environmental stability that affects extinction rates, and the factors that affect speciation and colonization rates. We argue that the diversity equilibria resulting from these biodiversity dynamics are first‐order drivers of large‐scale biodiversity patterns, such as the latitudinal diversity gradient.  相似文献   

18.
Extinction always results in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD), but phylogenetically selective extinctions have long been thought to disproportionately reduce PD. Recent simulations show that tree shapes also play an important role in determining the magnitude of PD loss, potentially offsetting the effects of clustered extinctions. While patterns of PD loss under different extinction scenarios are becoming well characterized in model phylogenies, analyses of real clades that often have unbalanced tree shapes remain scarce, particularly for marine organisms. Here, we use a fossil‐calibrated phylogeny of all living scleractinian reef corals in conjunction with IUCN data on extinction vulnerabilities to quantify how loss of species in different threat categories will affect the PD of this group. Our analyses reveal that predicted PD loss in corals varies substantially among different threats, with extinctions due to bleaching and disease having the largest negative effects on PD. In general, more phylogenetically clustered extinctions lead to larger losses of PD in corals, but there are notable exceptions; extinction of rare corals from distantly‐related old and unique lineages can also result in substantial PD loss. Thus our results show that loss of PD in reef corals is dependent on both tree shape and the nature of extinction threats.  相似文献   

19.
Amphibians are declining at alarming rates worldwide; however, the causes of these declines remain somewhat elusive. Here we evaluated three major threats implicated in declines of populations and disappearance of Ecuadorian amphibians: chytridiomicosis, climate change, and habitat loss. We assessed spatial patterns of these key threats to Ecuadorian amphibians using a multi‐species database of endemic frogs along with information on the pathogen's distribution and environmental requirements, species sensitivity to climate change (indirectly based on species geographical distribution and ecological properties) and habitat loss. Our results show that amphibians display a non‐random pattern of extinction risk, both geographically and taxonomically. Further, climate change, chytridiomicosis, and their synergetic effects, are likely currently exerting the greatest impact on amphibians in Ecuador, while habitat loss does not seem to be causing precipitous declines. The most threatened species under the IUCN extinction risk categories are exactly those that appear to be the most affected by these threats. By examining multiple potential causes of amphibian threat level in a spatially explicit framework our study provides new insights about what combination of factors are most important in amphibian declines in a tropical diversity hotspot. Further, our approach and conclusions are useful for studying declines in other regions of the world.  相似文献   

20.

Aim

Mining is increasingly pressuring areas of critical importance for biodiversity conservation, such as the Brazilian Amazon. Biodiversity data are limited in the tropics, restricting the scope for risks to be appropriately estimated before mineral licensing decisions are made. As the distributions and range sizes of other taxa differ markedly from those of vertebrates—the common proxy for analysis of risk to biodiversity from mining—whether mining threatens lesser-studied taxonomic groups differentially at a regional scale is unclear.

Location

Brazilian Amazon.

Methods

We assess risks to several facets of biodiversity from industrial mining by comparing mining areas (within 70 km of an active mining lease) and areas unaffected by mining, employing species richness, species endemism, phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism metrics calculated for angiosperms, arthropods and vertebrates.

Results

Mining areas contained higher densities of species occurrence records than the unaffected landscape, and we accounted for this sampling bias in our analyses. None of the four biodiversity metrics differed between mining and nonmining areas for vertebrates. For arthropods, species endemism was greater in mined areas. Mined areas also had greater angiosperm species richness, phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism, although less species endemism than unmined areas.

Main Conclusions

Unlike for vertebrates, facets of angiosperm and arthropod diversity are relatively higher in areas of mining activity, underscoring the need to consider multiple taxonomic groups and biodiversity facets when assessing risk and evaluating management options for mining threats. Particularly concerning is the proximity of mining to areas supporting deep evolutionary history, which may be impossible to recover or replace. As pressures to expand mining in the Amazon grow, impact assessments with broader taxonomic reach and metric focus will be vital to conserving biodiversity in mining regions.  相似文献   

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