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1.
Leslie matrix simulations were performed, employing idealized ungulate life histories and density-independent, either random or periodic, variation in calf survival, p0. Long-term average rate of increase was reduced whenever variation was added to p0. The iteroparous life histories strongly buffered high-frequency vital rate variations, so that large fluctuations in p0 resulted in relatively small fluctuations in population size. The buffering effect was greatest for species with the longest lifespans. The results suggest that wild ungulate populations will not fluctuate greatly in response to density-independent, environmental-driven vital rates. Such populations will reach high densities, thus experiencing strong density-dependent regulation, only a few times in many generations.  相似文献   

2.
The population dynamics of two grasshoppers (Melanoplus femurrubrum and M. sanguinipes) were studied using experimental microcosms over 8 years at a Palouse prairie site in Montana. Grasshopper density, survival and reproduction in the experimental populations responded in a density-dependent fashion to natural and experimental changes in food availability for all grasshopper developmental stages, both within and between all years. We observed that field populations of the grasshoppers at the site exhibited density, survival and reproductive responses similar to the experimental populations over the period of the study. Because we could not identify any differences between the field and microcosm environments or the grasshopper individuals in them, we contend that field populations were ultimately limited by food within and between years. Density-dependent food limitation occurred for all age categories over the entire summer, because food abundance declined relative to grasshopper food requirements over the summer. Food limitation occurred between years, because in years with the lowest food abundance, the populations produced more hatchlings for the next year than could be supported by the highest observed food abundance. Finally, the observed annual changes in food abundance were correlated with the annual variation in weather (rainfall and temperature), which indicated that the long established relationship between grasshopper densities and weather conditions does not imply population limitation by density-independent processes.  相似文献   

3.
Density-dependent processes are critical for regulating species’ populations, and piscivory of coral-reef fishes is frequently density dependent. However, the mechanism driving this density-dependent mortality is poorly understood, but may be caused by changes in a predator’s feeding rate at different prey densities (its functional response). An aquarium experiment replicated in winter and summer examined the functional response after 22 and 47 h of Cephalopholis cruentata feeding on Halichoeres pictus. With the exception of summer data after 47 h (density-independent mortality), mortality was inversely density dependent across all prey densities and increased with higher summer temperatures. The absence of an asymptotic pattern of inverse density-dependent mortality was caused by type II (summer) or dome-shaped type IV (winter) functional responses, with the benefits of schooling likely to cause the low mortality rates at higher prey densities. Predators’ functional responses may underlie the inverse density-dependent mortality reported in field studies of aggregating fishes.  相似文献   

4.
Summer diet, summer temperature, length of the growth season and animal density appeared to best explain annual and regional differences in calf and yearling body mass in moose from southeastern Norway. In general animals inhabiting steep, alpine landscapes had less body mass than animals using flat, low-altitude habitats. Autumn body mass of calves and yearlings decreased with increasing snow depth during the preceding winter and spring. However, calf body mass was more influenced by the summer range and less by the winter range than was body mass of yearlings. There was no indication that the effect of snow depth on autumn body mass was greater in moose living on poor than on good summer ranges. Body mass decreased with increasing competition for summer forage, while the winter range mainly had an density-independent effect. Habitat quality, expressed as regression lines between calf and yearling body mass and animal density (hunting yield), differed between regions. On ranges of medium and high altitude where birch (Betula spp.) rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) and bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) dominated moose summer diet, body mass decreased at a rapid rate with increasing animal density. Body mass decreased at a slower rate at low-altitude ranges and at high-altitude ranges where willow (Salix spp.) and forbs dominated the diet. Body mass of lactating cows decreased with increasing animal density, but animal density did not affect body mass of non-lactating cows. There was no indication that the decrease in autumn body mass with increasing moose density over the last 25 years has caused a decrease in animal condition (ability to survive the winter). The results are discussed in relation to the effect of summer and winter range on population regulation in moose. It is concluded that a density-dependent effect is apparent on the summer range even at low and intermediate population densities. On the winter range, on the other hand, density-dependence is likely to occur only at high levels of population density. Received: 4 February 1997 / Accepted: 1 February 1999  相似文献   

5.
Scarcity of long-term (over 30 years) data series represents a major challenge for an accurate estimation of the role of density-dependent processes in population regulation. We analyzed population densities of the wingless parthenogenic morphs of buckthorn aphid (BA), Aphis nasturtii Kaltenbach, potato aphid (PA), Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Thomas), and green peach aphid (GPA), Myzus persicae (Sulzer) from 1949 to 2003 for signs of density-dependent regulation. We found strong evidence of density-dependent regulation, with detection of density dependence being fairly consistent among the different statistical techniques. Direct density dependence was detected for the populations of all three species. There was also evidence of delayed density dependence for PA. The periodicity of population fluctuations for BA and GPA was 6.1 years and 3.9 years, respectively. The periodicity for PA was not explicit, being highly variable throughout the time series. Effects of density-independent weather factors were relatively minor compared to density-dependent regulation. The BA populations experienced a significant reduction in both density and annual oscillations starting in 1995, while GPA populations experienced a similar reduction in 1991. No such change was apparent for PA. The most likely explanation for the observed phenomenon is a change in the composition of the lady beetle community following the establishment of two alien coccinellid species, and/or changes in insecticide use by commercial growers in the area of the study.  相似文献   

6.
Temporal variation in population size is regulated by both exogenous forces and density-dependent feedbacks. Furthermore, accumulating evidence indicates that temporal and spatial variation in climate and resources can modify the strength of density dependence in animal populations. We analyzed six long-term time series estimates of Peromyscus leucopus (white-footed mouse) abundance from Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Vermont, and Maine, USA, using the Kalman filter. Model-averaged estimates of the strength of delayed density dependence increased from west to east and from south to north. The strength of direct and delayed density dependence was positively related to the annual number of days with minimum temperature below −17.8°C. Annual population growth rates of P. leucopus at the Maine site were positively related to acorn abundance and P. leucopus populations tracked the changes in red-oak acorn abundance. The populations of P. leucopus living in northern latitudes might be more dependent on northern red oak (Quercus rubra) acorns for winter food than P. leucopus in southern latitudes. Furthermore, northern red oak trees mast every 4–5 years. Thus, longer, colder winters in northerly latitudes might result in stronger delayed density dependence in mouse populations with a shortage of winter food. Mice might simply track the acorn fluctuations in a delayed autocorrelated manner; however, delayed density dependence remained in our models for the Maine mouse populations after accounting for acorns, suggesting additional sources for delayed density dependence. Our results suggest that, in seed-eating Peromyscus, cyclicity may be regulated, in part, from low to high trophic levels. Deceased: Jerry O. Wolff  相似文献   

7.
Recently there has been considerable interest in determining the relative roles of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors in driving the population dynamics of free-ranging ungulates. We used time-series analysis to estimate the relative contributions of density-dependent forage competition, climatic fluctuation, and harvesting on the population dynamics of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Nova Scotia, Canada, from 1983 to 2000. A model incorporating the population density 2 years previous, an interaction term for the harvest of females and population density 2 years previous, and the total snowfall during the previous 2 winters explained 80% of the variation in inter-annual population growth rate. Natality of adult females was negatively related to deer density during the present winter, whereas that of yearlings may have been correlated with the snowfall of three winters previous. Natality of fawns was related to deer density and total snowfall during the previous winter. Coyotes (Canis latrans) prey extensively on deer fawns in northeastern North America and the annual harvest of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), the major alternate prey of coyotes, explained 48% of the inter-annual variation in fawn recruitment. The proportions of fawn, yearling, and adult deer suffering from severe malnutrition during late winter were all correlated with deer density during the present winter. We conclude that the limiting effects of winter weather on over-winter survival of deer may be cumulative over two consecutive winters. During the late 1980s, density dependence and winter severity acted in concert to effect substantial declines in deer population growth both by effecting winter losses directly and by exacerbating predation by coyotes. During this period liberal harvesting did not relieve density-dependent forage competition and probably accelerated the decline.  相似文献   

8.
Density-independent and density-dependent, stochastic and deterministic, discrete-time, structured models are formulated, analysed and numerically simulated. A special case of the deterministic, density-independent, structured model is the well-known Leslie age-structured model. The stochastic, density-independent model is a multitype branching process. A review of linear, density-independent models is given first, then nonlinear, density-dependent models are discussed. In the linear, density-independent structured models, transitions between states are independent of time and state. Population extinction is determined by the dominant eigenvalue λ of the transition matrix. If λ ≤ 1, then extinction occurs with probability one in the stochastic and deterministic models. However, if λ > 1, then the deterministic model has exponential growth, but in the stochastic model there is a positive probability of extinction which depends on the fixed point of the system of probability generating functions. The linear, density-independent, stochastic model is generalized to a nonlinear, density-dependent one. The dependence on state is in terms of a weighted total population size. It is shown for small initial population sizes that the density-dependent, stochastic model can be approximated by the density-independent, stochastic model and thus, the extinction behavior exhibited by the linear model occurs in the nonlinear model. In the deterministic models there is a unique stable equilibrium. Given the population does not go extinct, it is shown that the stochastic model has a quasi-stationary distribution with mean close to the stable equilibrium, provided the population size is sufficiently large. For small values of the population size, complete extinction can be observed in the simulations. However, the persistence time increases rapidly with the population size. This author received partial support by the National Science Foundation grant # DMS-9626417.  相似文献   

9.
Summary The seasonal and long-term population dynamics of helminths parasitizing voles suggested that density-dependent factors might be important in the population dynamics of common species, whereas density-independent factors predominate in the regulation of the rare species. To test this, we used single and multiple regression to analyse the effects of climatic factors and host density on populations of six species of vole helminths over 12 years. The data do support the idea of a difference between common and rare species of helminths, but they clearly do not support the above hypothesis. The common helminths Heligmosomum mixtum (Nematoda) and Catenotaenia sp. (Cestoda) responded to changes in temperature sum (>5° C days) and precipitation during summer. The combined effect of climatic factors and host density explained most of the variation in the long-term dynamics of these common species. By contrast, the long-term dynamics of the rare helminths Paranoplocephala kalelai (Cestoda), Mastophorus muris, Capillaria sp. and Syphacia petrusewiczi (Nematoda) were explained less well by weather and host density than those of the common ones. Furthermore, the common and rare helminths differed in some ways in their responses to climatic factors.  相似文献   

10.
Life tables were constructed to assess the relative importance of some factors causing mortality of Tribolium confusum and to gauge their response to increasing population density. Observations focussed on three population densities (100, 400 and 800 individual/8 g medium) from the egg to the adult stage. The medium was not renewed in order to maximize predatory interactions. Generation mortality at densities 100, 400 and 800 was 42%, 50% and 74% respectively, i. e. density-dependent. Mortality in the first 10 days was also density-dependent reaching a maximum of 27% at density 800: predation by small larvae on eggs seemed the principal causative factor. The overall pattern of larval mortality was density-independent. Data on the mortality of pupae and callows were ultimately consistent with an inversely density-dependent pattern. Apparently, only mortality occurring within the first 10 days was capable of population regulation.  相似文献   

11.
The analysis of evolutionary models requires an appropriate definition for fitness. In this paper, I review such definitions in relation to the five major dimensions by which models may be described, namely (i) finite versus infinite (or very large) population size, (ii) type of environment (constant, fixed length, temporally stochastic, temporally predictable, spatially stochastic, spatially predictable and social environment), (iii) density-independent or density-dependent, (iv) inherent population dynamics (equilibrium, cyclical and chaotic), and (v) frequency-dependent or independent. In simple models, the Malthusian parameter ‘r’ or the net reproductive rate R 0 may be satisfactory, but once density-dependence or complex population dynamics is introduced the invasion exponent should be used. Defining fitness in a social environment or when there is frequency-dependence requires special consideration.  相似文献   

12.
Mosquitoes are a major vector for tropical diseases, so understanding aspects that modify their population dynamics is vital for their control and protecting human health. Maximising the efficiency of control strategies for reducing transmission risk requires as a first step the understanding of the intrinsic population dynamics of vectors. We fitted a set of density-dependent and density-independent models to the long-term time series of six tropical mosquito species from northern Australia. The models’ strength of evidence was assessed using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC c ), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and jack-knifed cross-validation (C-V). Density dependence accounted for more than 99% of the model weight in all model-selection methods, with the Gompertz-logistic (Cushing model) being the best-supported model for all mosquito species (negative density feedback expressed even at low densities). The second-most abundant species, Aedes vigilax (a saline breeder), showed no spatial heterogeneity in its density-dependent response, but the remaining five species had different intrinsic growth rates across 11 study sites. Population densities of saline species were high only during the late dry to early wet season following the highest tides of the month or early flood rains when swamps were mostly saline, whereas those of freshwater species were highest during the mid-wet and mid-dry seasons. These findings demonstrate remarkably strong density dependence in mosquito populations, but also suggest that environmental drivers, such as rainfall and tides, are important in modifying seasonal densities. Neglecting to account for strong density feedback in tropical mosquito populations will clearly result in less effective control.  相似文献   

13.
Summary We demonstrate that an egg parasitoid, Anagrus delicatus (Mymaridae, Hymenoptera) and its host, Prokelesia marginata (Delphacidae, Homoptera) regularly disperse 1 km or more in a north Florida saltmarsh. Anagrus delicatus were caught on yellow sticky traps on offshore islets and oyster bars throughout the spring, summer, and fall, whereas P. marginata were caught during one pulse in the spring. Parasitism rates were higher on offshore islets than at mainland sites, even though egg densities were higher at the mainland sites. The majority of parasitoids caught offshore were females. Long-distance dispersal by A. delicatus may be a cause of inverse density-dependent or density-independent spatial patterns of parasitism and may represent a risk-spreading strategy.  相似文献   

14.
Predictions of warming and drying in the Mediterranean and other regions require quantifying of such effects on ecosystem carbon dynamics and respiration. Long‐term effects can only be obtained from forests in which seasonal drought is a regular feature. We carried out measurements in a semiarid Pinus halepensis (Aleppo pine) forest of aboveground respiration rates of foliage, Rf, and stem, Rt over 3 years. Component respiration combined with ongoing biometric, net CO2 flux [net ecosystem productivity (NEP)] and soil respiration measurements were scaled to the ecosystem level to estimate gross and net primary productivity (GPP, NPP) and carbon‐use efficiency (CUE=NPP/GPP) using 6 years data. GPP, NPP and NEP were, on average, 880, 350 and 211 g C m?2 yr?1, respectively. The above ground respiration made up half of total ecosystem respiration but CUE remained high at 0.4. Large seasonal variations in both Rf and Rt were not consistently correlated with seasonal temperature trends. Seasonal adjustments of respiration were observed in both the normalized rate (R20) and short‐term temperature sensitivity (Q10), resulting in low respiration rates during the hot, dry period. Rf in fully developed needles was highest over winter–spring, and foliage R20 was correlated with photosynthesis over the year. Needle growth occurred over summer, with respiration rates in developing needles higher than the fully developed foliage at most times. Rt showed a distinct seasonal maximum in May irrespective of year, which was not correlated to the winter stem growth, but could be associated with phenological drivers such as carbohydrate re‐mobilization and cambial activity. We show that in a semiarid pine forest photosynthesis and stem growth peak in (wet) winter and leaf growth in (dry) summer, and associated adjustments of component respiration, dominated by those in R20, minimize annual respiratory losses. This is likely a key for maintaining high CUE and ecosystem productivity similar to much wetter sites, and could lead to different predictions of the effect of warming and drying climate on productivity of pine forests than based on short‐term droughts.  相似文献   

15.
  1. Life table data for interactions between Anagasta kühniella and its ichneumon parasite Venturia canescens in two room ecosystems (A & B) have been analyzed in an attempt to explain and model each room situation. The life table data have been presented in the form of a graphical key-factor analysis, and have been further analyzed by an investigation of the density relationships between the different mortalities and the Angasta densities upon which the mortalities act.
  2. In room A (1.2 gm food per container), the parasites were present throughout the interaction. Egg and early larval mortality (k1) appeared to be directly density-dependent and was the sole stabilizing influence when introduced into the model for room A. The area of discovery of the parasite was relatively constant and its mean value was used to calculate parasitism (k3) in the model. All other mortalities were density-independent and treated as being constant at their mean values. The model predicts a series of oscillations of decreasing amplitude which are somewhat similar to those observed in the Anagasta population during the early stages of the interaction. The observed mean densities of host and parasite were very close to those predicted.
  3. In room B, the parasites were absent for the first 8 generations (1- 2gm food per container). Model B1 covers this period and includes a direct density-dependent component describing changes in k1, the remaining mortalities being constant. The observed mean densities approximate to the calculated densities. The parasites were present from the ninth generation and after the eleventh generation the food per container was increased to 7.2 gm. Model B2 covers the period in room B from generation 11. The most important component of k1 after the parasites were established is a delayed density-dependent one which appeared to be due to wounding of very small larvae by the probing activities of the parasites. Since the changes in k1 could not be suitably predicted, the observed values were used in model B2. This delayed component was not detected in room A due to the relatively small range of parasite densities in room A compared with the 600-fold change in densities in room B. The calculated area of discovery for the parasite population in each generation was found to vary inversely with searching parasite density, and this ‘interference relationship’ was used in the submodel for parasitism. Again, this relationship was not detected in room A due to the much smaller range of parasite densities there. Model B2 gives oscillations in host and parasite populations arising from parasitism being a delayed density-dependent mortality. The correspondence with the observed oscillations is partly due to the actual k1-values being used and partly because the submodel for parasitism adequately describes the observed changes in k3. The tendency for these oscillations to decrease in amplitude is due to both the damping effect of parasite interference and the direct density-dependent component of k1.
  相似文献   

16.
Analysis of field populations of Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), after a 3-year study, shows that population growth rate is affected by both density-dependent and density-independent mortality. Although an equilibrium exists, apparently as a consequence of a density dependent-mechanism, population density fluctuates throughout the year because of the effect of monthly mean minimum temperature as a density-independent source of mortality. Simulation studies based on Moran curves shows that high population densities have an approximately constant extinction probability (around 0.20), independently of the season the population starts growing. However, at very low population densities, the extinction probability depends strongly on the season when the population begins to grow. Very low density populations beginning in winter or autumn have the highest extinction probability. The outcome of the simulation studies coincides with results observed in field populations affected by insecticide application at different seasons.  相似文献   

17.
The relative contribution of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity to the temporal dynamics of animal populations is one of the central issues of ecology. In insects, the primary role of the latter factor, typically represented by weather patterns, is widely accepted. We have evaluated the impact of density dependence as well as density-independent factors, including weather and mowing regime, on annual fluctuations of butterfly populations. As model species, we used Maculinea alcon and M. teleius living in sympatry and, consequently, we also analysed the effect of their potential competition. Density dependence alone explained 62 and 42% of the variation in the year-to-year trends of M. alcon and M. teleius, respectively. The cumulative Akaike weight of models with density dependence, which can be interpreted as the probability that this factor should be contained in the most appropriate population dynamics model, exceeded 0.97 for both species. In contrast, the impacts of inter-specific competition, mowing regime and weather were much weaker, with their cumulative weights being in the range of 0.08–0.21; in addition, each of these factors explained only 2–5% of additional variation in Maculinea population trends. Our results provide strong evidence for density-dependent regulation in Maculinea, while the influence of environmental stochasticity is rather minor. In the light of several recent studies on other butterflies that detected significant density-dependent effects, it would appear that density-dependent regulation may be more widespread in this group than previously thought, while the role of environmental stochasticity has probably been overestimated. We suggest that this misconception is the result of deficiencies in the design of most butterfly population studies in the past, including (1) a strong focus on adults and a neglect of the larval stage in which density-dependent effects are most likely to occur; (2) an almost exclusive reliance on transect count results that may confound the impact of environmental stochasticity on butterfly numbers with its impact on adult longevity. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

18.
Understanding the relative effects of the many factors that may influence recruitment of ungulates is fundamental to managing their populations. Over the last 4 decades, average recruitment in some populations of elk (Cervus elaphus) in Oregon, USA declined from >50 to <20 juveniles per 100 females, and several competing hypotheses address these declines. We developed a priori models and constructed covariates spanning 1977–2005 from hunter-killed elk, elk population estimates, cougar harvest, and weather statistics to evaluate abiotic, bottom-up, and top-down factors that may explain annual variation and long-term trends of pregnancy, juveniles-at-heel in late autumn, and recruitment of juvenile elk in spring. In models of pregnancy status, August precipitation, age, and cougar index had positive effects, whereas previous year (t − 1) winter severity or winter precipitation(t−1) and elk density had negative effects. In models of juvenile-at-heel in late autumn, August precipitation, August precipitation(t−1), cougar index × elk density(t−1), and age had positive effects, whereas cougar index, elk density(t−1), and winter precipitation(t−1) had negative effects. Juvenile recruitment was best explained by positive effects of August precipitation(t−1), lactation rate, and cougar index × elk density(t−1) and negative effects of cougar index and elk density(t−1). Winter severity, precipitation, and temperature were not significant in explaining variation in elk recruitment. Annual variation in pregnancy, juvenile-at-heel, and recruitment was most influenced by August precipitation, whereas long-term trends in recruitment were most influenced by cougar densities with relatively weak effects of elk density. These results provide insight into causes of year-to-year and long-term trends of elk recruitment and provide a basis for more rigorous evaluation of factors affecting recruitment of elk. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.  相似文献   

19.
M. A. Steele 《Oecologia》1997,112(1):64-74
 Input of individuals dispersing into open populations can be highly variable, yet the consequences of such variation for subsequent population densities are not well understood. I explored the influence of variable input (”supply”) on subsequent densities of juveniles and adults in open local populations of two temperate reef fishes, the bluebanded goby (Lythrypnus dalli) and the blackeye goby (Coryphopterus nicholsii). Variable recruitment was simulated by stocking a natural range of densities of young fishes on replicate patch reefs. Density and mortality of the stocked cohorts were followed over time, until the fishes reached maturity. Over the first day of the experiments, mortality of both species was significantly density-dependent; however, there was still a very strong relationship between density on day 1 and density on day 0 (i.e., simulated recruitment was still an excellent predictor of population density). At this point in the study, the main effects of density-dependent mortality were to reduce mean densities and variation about the mean. Over the period from the start of the experiments until the time when maturity was reached by each species (about 1 and 3 months for Lythrypnus and Coryphopterus, respectively), mortality was strongly density-dependent. Such strong density-dependent mortality virtually eliminated any linear relationship between adult density and ”recruit” density. However, for both species, the relationship between these two variables was well fit by an asymptotic curve, with the asymptotic density of adults equal to c. 3/m2 for Coryphopterus, and c. 10/m2 for Lythrypnus. Natural recruitment (via settlement of larvae) to the reefs over the period of the study (9 months) was above the asymptotic densities of adults for the two species, even though the study did not encompass the periods of peak annual recruitment of either species. This suggests that adult populations of these two gobies may often be limited, and regulated, by post-settlement processes, rather than by input of settlers. Other studies have shown that mortality of the two species is density-independent, or only weakly density-dependent, on reefs from which predators have been excluded. Hence, it appears that predators cause density-dependent mortality in these fishes. Received: 26 November 1996 / Accepted: 5 April 1997  相似文献   

20.
Abstract.
  • 1 Mortality and size variation (siphon length) in Aedes cantans larvae were examined in natural populations in northern England in 1989 and 1990.
  • 2 Under crowded conditions, density-dependent competition led to reduction in the size of both larvae and adults and increased larval mortality.
  • 3 Larvae were also maintained in cages in the field at different densities. Results paralleled those for the natural populations in the ponds; larvae maintained at high densities showed increased mortality and reduced size.
  • 4 Possible density-dependent factors leading to mortality and size reduction include cannibalism and contact inhibition leading to food shortages.
  • 5 The main density-independent factor contributing to larval mortality was habitat desiccation.
  相似文献   

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