An SEIS epidemic model with transport-related infection

In this paper, an SEIS epidemic model is proposed to study the effect of transport-related infection on the spread and control of infectious disease. New result implies that traveling of the exposed (means exposed but not yet infectious) individuals can bring disease from one region to other regions even if the infectious individuals are inhibited from traveling among regions. It is shown that transportation among regions will change the disease dynamics and break infection out even if infectious diseases will go to extinction in each isolated region without transport-related infection. In addition, our analysis shows that transport-related infection intensifies the disease spread if infectious diseases break out to cause an endemic situation in each region, in the sense of that both the absolute and relative size of patients increase. This suggests that it is very essential to strengthen restrictions of passengers once we know infectious diseases appeared.     

Household epidemic models with varying infection response

This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible → infected → removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an individual. Two different models are analysed. In the first model, the infection status of an individual is predetermined, perhaps due to partial immunity, and in the second, the infection status of an individual depends on the infection status of its infector and on whether the individual was infected by a within- or between-household contact. The first scenario may be modelled using a multitype household epidemic model, and the second scenario by a model we denote by the infector-dependent-severity household epidemic model. Large population results of the two models are derived, with the focus being on the distribution of the total numbers of mild and severe cases in a typical household, of any given size, in the event that the epidemic becomes established. The aim of the paper is to investigate whether it is possible to determine which of the two underlying explanations is causing the varying response when given final size household outbreak data containing mild and severe cases. We conduct numerical studies which show that, given data on sufficiently many households, it is generally possible to discriminate between the two models by comparing the Kullback–Leibler divergence for the two fitted models to these data.     

The epidemic process in mumps infection

Manifestations of the epidemic process of a parotitis infection can be explained by the theory of the self regulation of parasitic systems. A characteristic feature of epidemic parotitis is the formation of epidemic foci in the absence of parotitis cases and without the penetration of the infective agent from the outside. The epidemic wave of parotitis infection decreases as the virulence of the infective agent attenuates due to its passage through persons gaining immunity in the course of the epidemic. The avirulent infective agent persists in the body of some immune carriers till a sufficient stratum of susceptible subjects accumulates in the chain of the agent circulation. The analysis points to the autonomous character of the epidemic process not only among the urban and rural population, but also among separate social and age groups of the population within one town or settlement. The findings evidence an independent formation of the epidemic variant of the infective agent in individual schools and preschool institutions.     

Experience in the detection of the latent course of the epidemic process of viral hepatitis in children in preschool groups]

A complex study of 1273 healthy children of creches and kindergartens where no viral hepatitis occurred for a long time revealed 39 children (3.1%) with an increased activity of glutamine-pyroracemic transaminase in the blood serum. Viral hepatitis was diagnosed in 12 (0.94%) of them as a result of clinical examination (an icteric form in 1, and a nonicteric form in 11 cases). The presence of asymptomatic form of infection could be supposed in 17 other children (1.3%). The incidence of increased activity of the enzyme in the serum of "healthy" children was definitly connected with the viral hepatitis incidence registered in the town during the year as a whole, and by seasons. This permitted to prognosticate the spread of viral hepatitis in the given populated locality. By complex laboratory examination of children in collective bodies it was possible to detect the latene foci and the latently coursing epidemic process of viral hepatitis.