A research agenda for malaria eradication: monitoring, evaluation, and surveillance

Monitoring, evaluation, and surveillance measure how well public health programs operate over time and achieve their goals. As countries approach malaria elimination, these activities will need to shift from measuring reductions in morbidity and mortality, to detecting infections (with or without symptoms) and measuring transmission. Thus, the monitoring and evaluation and surveillance research and development agenda needs to develop the tools and strategies that will replace passive surveillance of morbidity with active and prompt detection of infection, including confirmation of interruption of transmission by detecting present and past infections, particularly in mobile populations. The capacity to assess trends and respond without delay will need to be developed, so that surveillance itself becomes an intervention. Research is also needed to develop sensitive field tests that can detect low levels of parasitaemia, together with strategies for their implementation. Other areas to explore include the rigorous evaluation of the utility of more detailed maps of disease and infection incidence and prevalence, the development of new maps to inform programmatic responses and the use of surveillance technologies based on cell phone or real-time internet Web-based reporting. Because any new strategies for monitoring and evaluation and surveillance for eradication have major implications for program implementation, research is also needed to test systems of delivery for acceptability, feasibility, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and community engagement. Finally, there is a clear need to systematically review the information from past elimination efforts for malaria and other infectious diseases.     

Strengthening of the clinical research capacity for malaria: a shared responsibility

Malaria remains a major health burden especially for the developing countries. Despite concerted efforts at using the current control tools, such as bed nets, anti malarial drugs and vector control measures, the disease is accountable for close to a million deaths annually. Vaccines have been proposed as a necessary addition to the armamentarium that could work towards elimination and eventual eradication of malaria in view of their historical significance in combating infectious diseases. However, because malaria vaccines would work differently depending on the targeted parasite stage, this review addresses the potential impact various malaria vaccine types could have on transmission. Further, because of the wide variation in the epidemiology of malaria across the endemic regions, this paper proposes that the ideal approach to malaria control ought to be tailor-made depending on the specific context. Finally, it suggests that although it is highly desirable to anticipate and aim for malaria elimination and eventual eradication, many affected regions should prioritize reduction of mortality and morbidity before aspiring for elimination.

     

Is vaccine the magic bullet for malaria elimination? A reality check

Malaria remains a major health burden especially for the developing countries. Despite concerted efforts at using the current control tools, such as bed nets, anti malarial drugs and vector control measures, the disease is accountable for close to a million deaths annually. Vaccines have been proposed as a necessary addition to the armamentarium that could work towards elimination and eventual eradication of malaria in view of their historical significance in combating infectious diseases. However, because malaria vaccines would work differently depending on the targeted parasite stage, this review addresses the potential impact various malaria vaccine types could have on transmission. Further, because of the wide variation in the epidemiology of malaria across the endemic regions, this paper proposes that the ideal approach to malaria control ought to be tailor-made depending on the specific context. Finally, it suggests that although it is highly desirable to anticipate and aim for malaria elimination and eventual eradication, many affected regions should prioritize reduction of mortality and morbidity before aspiring for elimination.     

Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden.In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.     

Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods

Background

Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009.

Methods and Findings

We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th–95th centiles, 146–316 million) worldwide, 176 (110–248) million in the African region, and 49 (36–68) million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries.

Conclusions

Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts will increasingly rely on robust systems of routine surveillance. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Towards the endgame and beyond: complexities and challenges for the elimination of infectious diseases

Successful control measures have interrupted the local transmission of human infectious diseases such as measles, malaria and polio, and saved and improved billions of lives. Similarly, control efforts have massively reduced the incidence of many infectious diseases of animals, such as rabies and rinderpest, with positive benefits for human health and livelihoods across the globe. However, disease elimination has proven an elusive goal, with only one human and one animal pathogen globally eradicated. As elimination targets expand to regional and even global levels, hurdles may emerge within the endgame when infections are circulating at very low levels, turning the last mile of these public health marathons into the longest mile. In this theme issue, we bring together recurring challenges that emerge as we move towards elimination, highlighting the unanticipated consequences of particular ecologies and pathologies of infection, and approaches to their management.     

Surveillance considerations for malaria elimination

ABSTRACT: Constant malaria monitoring and surveillance systems have been highlighted as critical for malaria elimination. The absence of robust monitoring and surveillance systems able to respond to outbreaks in a timely manner undeniably contributed to the failure of the last global attempt to eradicate malaria. Today, technological advances could allow for rapid detection of focal outbreaks and improved deployment of diagnostic and treatment supplies to areas needing support. However, optimizing diffusion activities (e.g., distributing vector controls and medicines, as well as deploying behaviour change campaigns) requires networks of diverse scholars to monitor, learn, and evaluate data and multiple organizations to coordinate their intervention activities. Surveillance systems that can gather, store and process information, from communities to national levels, in a centralized, widely accessible system will allow tailoring of surveillance and intervention efforts. Different systems and, thus reactions, will be effective in different endemic, geographical or socio-cultural contexts. Investing in carefully designed monitoring technologies, built for a multiple-acter, dynamic system, will help to improve malaria elimination efforts by improving the coordination, timing, coverage, and deployment of malaria technologies.     

Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: new perspectives on an old problem

There is a clear need for improved epidemic malaria surveillance mechanisms in areas prone to the disease. Epidemiological surveillance systems are rarely able to provide information in a sufficiently timely manner for adequate epidemic response. This is especially true in African countries where surveillance is poorly developed, and particularly so in remote regions of unstable malaria such as desert fringes. There is long standing evidence linking climatic variability and epidemic risk. The last ten years have seen significant developments in Environmental Information System (EIS) for a range of natural resource management purposes. The routine information products from these systems have been shown to be both spatially and temporally related to malaria transmission indicators across the African continent. EIS may therefore provide a useful and cost effective input to epidemic malaria control planning and response.     

Molecular surveillance and temporal monitoring of malaria parasites in focal Vietnamese provinces

In the past decade substantial reduction in malaria morbidity and mortality has been observed through well-implemented case management and vector control strategies. India has also achieved a significant reduction in malaria burden in 2018 and has committed to eliminate malaria by 2030. The Mandla Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project (MEDP) was started in 2017 in 1233 villages of District Mandla to demonstrate malaria elimination in a tribal district with hard-to-reach areas was possible using active and passive surveillance, case management, vector control, and targeted information, education and communication campaigns. An operational plan was developed to strengthen the existing surveillance and malaria elimination systems, through fortnightly active case detection to ensure that all cases including those that are introduced into the communities are rapidly identified and treated promptly. The plan also focused on the reduction of human-mosquito contact through the use of Long-Lasting Insecticial Nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spray (IRS). The operational plan was modified in view of the present COVID-19 pandemic by creating systems of assistance for the local administration for COVID-related work while ensuring the operational integrity of malaria elimination efforts. The use of MEDP study design and operational plan, with its built-in management control systems, has yielded significant (91%) reduction of indigenous cases of malaria during the period from June 2017 to May 2020. The malaria positivity rate was 0.33% in 2017–18, 0.13% in 2018–19, and 0.06% in 2019–20. Mass screening revealed 0.18% malaria positivity in September–October 2018, followed by 0.06% in June 2019, and 0.03% in December 2019, and these were mostly asymptomatic cases in the community. The project has been able to sustain the gains of the past three years during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides the study design and the operational plan for malaria elimination in a high-burden district of Central India, which presented difficulties of hard to reach areas, forest malaria, and complex epidemiology of urban and rural malaria. The lessons learned could be used for malaria elimination efforts in rest of the country and other parts of South Asia with comparable demography and epidemiology.     

Development of a new platform for neglected tropical disease surveillance

An expanded global focus on the control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has called attention to the need to develop and validate surveillance strategies that are cost effective and can be integrated across diseases. Here, we describe a multiplex tool for the sensitive detection of antibody responses to NTDs as well as vaccine preventable diseases, malaria, and waterborne and zoonotic infections. The assay platform is robust, can be performed with either serum or dried blood spots and can be adapted to local epidemiological conditions and public health priorities. Multiplex assays open the door to conducting routine serosurveillance for NTDs through demographic health surveillance or malaria indicator surveys.     

Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread

Background

Controlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resources among nations. Critical, early control steps would be greatly enhanced if the key risk factors can be identified that accurately predict early disease spread immediately after emergence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here, we examine the role of travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and initial spread of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. We find that incorporating national healthcare resource data into our analyses allowed a much greater capacity to predict the international spread of this virus. In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a lower capacity for testing and reporting, as well as other socio-political issues. We also report substantial international trade in live swine and poultry in the decade preceding the pandemic which may have contributed to the emergence and mixed genotype of this pandemic strain. However, the lack of knowledge of recent evolution of each H1N1 viral gene segment precludes the use of this approach to determine viral origins.

Conclusions/Significance

We conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Our results highlight the benefits, for all parties, when higher income countries provide additional healthcare resources for lower income countries, particularly those that have high air traffic volumes. In particular, international authorities should prioritize aid to those poorest countries where both the risk of emerging infectious diseases and air traffic volume is highest. This strategy will result in earlier detection of pathogens and a reduction in the impact of future pandemics.     

A hierarchical model for analyzing multisite individual-level disease surveillance data from multiple systems

Passive surveillance systems are widely used to monitor diseases occurrence over wide spatial areas due to their cost-effectiveness and integration into broadly distributed healthcare systems. However, such systems are generally associated with imperfect ascertainment of disease cases and with heterogeneous capture probabilities arising from factors such as differential access to care. Augmenting passive surveillance systems with other surveillance efforts provides a way to estimate the true number of incident cases. We develop a hierarchical modeling framework for analyzing data from multiple surveillance systems that allows for individual-level covariate-dependent heterogeneous capture probabilities, and borrows information across surveillance sites to improve estimation of the true number of incident cases. Inference is carried out via a two-stage Bayesian procedure. Simulation studies illustrated superior performance of the proposed approach with respect to bias, root mean square error, and coverage compared to a model that does not borrow information across sites. We applied the proposed model to data from three surveillance systems reporting pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases in a major center of ongoing transmission in China. The analysis yielded bias-corrected estimates of PTB cases from the passive system and led to the identification of risk factors associated with PTB rates, as well as factors influencing the operating characteristics of the implemented surveillance systems.     

Xenosurveillance: A Novel Mosquito-Based Approach for Examining the Human-Pathogen Landscape

BackgroundGlobally, regions at the highest risk for emerging infectious diseases are often the ones with the fewest resources. As a result, implementing sustainable infectious disease surveillance systems in these regions is challenging. The cost of these programs and difficulties associated with collecting, storing and transporting relevant samples have hindered them in the regions where they are most needed. Therefore, we tested the sensitivity and feasibility of a novel surveillance technique called xenosurveillance. This approach utilizes the host feeding preferences and behaviors of Anopheles gambiae, which are highly anthropophilic and rest indoors after feeding, to sample viruses in human beings. We hypothesized that mosquito bloodmeals could be used to detect vertebrate viral pathogens within realistic field collection timeframes and clinically relevant concentrations.Conclusions/SignificanceTogether, these data demonstrate the feasibility of xenosurveillance and in doing so validated a simple and non-invasive surveillance tool that could be used to complement current biosurveillance efforts.     

Bringing together emerging and endemic zoonoses surveillance: shared challenges and a common solution

Early detection of disease outbreaks in human and animal populations is crucial to the effective surveillance of emerging infectious diseases. However, there are marked geographical disparities in capacity for early detection of outbreaks, which limit the effectiveness of global surveillance strategies. Linking surveillance approaches for emerging and neglected endemic zoonoses, with a renewed focus on existing disease problems in developing countries, has the potential to overcome several limitations and to achieve additional health benefits. Poor reporting is a major constraint to the surveillance of both emerging and endemic zoonoses, and several important barriers to reporting can be identified: (i) a lack of tangible benefits when reports are made; (ii) a lack of capacity to enforce regulations; (iii) poor communication among communities, institutions and sectors; and (iv) complexities of the international regulatory environment. Redirecting surveillance efforts to focus on endemic zoonoses in developing countries offers a pragmatic approach that overcomes some of these barriers and provides support in regions where surveillance capacity is currently weakest. In addition, this approach addresses immediate health and development problems, and provides an equitable and sustainable mechanism for building the culture of surveillance and the core capacities that are needed for all zoonotic pathogens, including emerging disease threats.     

Spatio-temporal incidence of malaria patients in Incheon Metropolitan City

Malaria, a globally significant mosquito-borne infectious disease, re-emerged in the Republic of Korea, and manifested annually in regions close to the demilitarized zone. Notably, Incheon Metropolitan City has witnessed an alarming upswing in malaria infections in recent years, drawing attention to this public health issue. This research was conducted to catch spatio-temporal and ecological landscape encompassing malaria patients and mosquito vectors in Incheon over the past decade. The top two incidences of malaria cases were found in Ganghwa-gun and Seo-gu, an occurrence potentially attributed to their geographic proximity to North Korea. Furthermore, the incidence of malaria infections displayed a seasonal pattern commencing in March, reaching its peak between June and August, and decreasing to a minimum in November. A correlation was noted between prevalence of malaria cases and number of mosquito breeding sites, such as ponds and rice fields within the region. Collectively, these research outcomes underlined the importance of systematically and holistically advocating mosquito elimination measures to enhance the efficacy of malaria eradication policies. These measures encompass the establishment of a robust mosquito outbreak surveillance system, targeted control of vector mosquitoes, residual pesticide spray, management of mosquito breeding sites, and adoption of repellents during outdoor activities.     

Evaluating the Performance of Malaria Genetics for Inferring Changes in Transmission Intensity Using Transmission Modeling

Substantial progress has been made globally to control malaria, however there is a growing need for innovative new tools to ensure continued progress. One approach is to harness genetic sequencing and accompanying methodological approaches as have been used in the control of other infectious diseases. However, to utilize these methodologies for malaria, we first need to extend the methods to capture the complex interactions between parasites, human and vector hosts, and environment, which all impact the level of genetic diversity and relatedness of malaria parasites. We develop an individual-based transmission model to simulate malaria parasite genetics parameterized using estimated relationships between complexity of infection and age from five regions in Uganda and Kenya. We predict that cotransmission and superinfection contribute equally to within-host parasite genetic diversity at 11.5% PCR prevalence, above which superinfections dominate. Finally, we characterize the predictive power of six metrics of parasite genetics for detecting changes in transmission intensity, before grouping them in an ensemble statistical model. The model predicted malaria prevalence with a mean absolute error of 0.055. Different assumptions about the availability of sample metadata were considered, with the most accurate predictions of malaria prevalence made when the clinical status and age of sampled individuals is known. Parasite genetics may provide a novel surveillance tool for estimating the prevalence of malaria in areas in which prevalence surveys are not feasible. However, the findings presented here reinforce the need for patient metadata to be recorded and made available within all future attempts to use parasite genetics for surveillance.     

Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria

BackgroundInfection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated.Conclusions/SignificanceWe have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified.     

Plasmodium vivax gametocytes and transmission

Malaria elimination means cessation of parasite transmission. At present, the declining malaria incidence in many countries has made elimination a feasible goal. Transmission control has thus been placed at the center of the national malaria control programs. The efficient transmission of Plasmodium vivax from humans to mosquitoes is a key factor that helps perpetuate malaria in endemic areas. A better understanding of transmission is crucial to the success of elimination efforts. Biological delineation of the parasite transmission process is important for identifying and prioritizing new targets of intervention. Identification of the infectious parasite reservoir in the community is key to devising an effective elimination strategy. Here we describe the fundamental characteristics of P. vivax gametocytes - the dynamics of their production, longevity, and the relationship with the total parasitemia - as well as recent advances in the molecular understanding of parasite sexual development. In relation to malaria elimination, factors influencing the human infectivity and the current evidence for a role of asymptomatic carriers in transmission are presented.     

A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination

Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination''s ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non-eliminating countries or becoming different once elimination was achieved. Countries that successfully eliminated were wealthier and had lower baseline endemicity than those that were unsuccessful, but our analysis shows that those same variables were at best incomplete predictors of the patterns of resurgence. Stability is reinforced by the loss of immunity to disease and by the health system''s increasing capacity to control malaria transmission after elimination through routine treatment of cases with antimalarial drugs supplemented by malaria outbreak control. Human travel patterns reinforce these patterns; as malaria recedes, fewer people carry malaria from remote endemic areas to remote areas where transmission potential remains high. Establishment of an international resource with backup capacity to control large outbreaks can make elimination stickier, increase the incentives for countries to eliminate, and ensure steady progress towards global eradication. Although available evidence supports malaria elimination''s stickiness at moderate-to-low transmission in areas with well-developed health systems, it is not yet clear if such patterns will hold in all areas. The sticky endpoint changes the projected costs of maintaining elimination and makes it substantially more attractive for countries acting alone, and it makes spatially progressive elimination a sensible strategy for a malaria eradication endgame.     

浅谈医院传染病信息网络直报管理工作

目的为进一步加强医院传染病管理,评价干预措施对降低医院传染病疫情报告迟报率、漏报率的效果,提出合理化建议。方法回顾性分析医院疫情网络直报的问题,比较采取干预措施前后的传染病报告及时率、漏报率,找出影响网络直报工作质量及影响传染病疫情报告及时率、漏报率的因素,探讨提高传染病监测质量的应对对策。结果网络直报的目的不明确,漏报、迟报仍然存在,各种填写不规范及网络直报系统运行是影响网络直报的主要因素。结论采取有效的干预措施能有效地降低医院传染病疫情报告的迟报率、漏报率。从多方面不断完善疾病监测体系,提高疫情报告工作的质量。