Inbreeding and disease avoidance in a free‐ranging koala population

Habitat destruction and fragmentation are increasing globally, forcing surviving species into small, isolated populations. Isolated populations typically experience heightened inbreeding risk and associated inbreeding depression and population decline; although individuals in these populations may mitigate these risks through inbreeding avoidance strategies. For koalas, as dietary specialists already under threat in the northern parts of their range, increased habitat fragmentation and associated inbreeding costs are of great conservation concern. Koalas are known to display passive inbreeding avoidance through sex‐biased dispersal, although population isolation will reduce dispersal pathways. We tested whether free‐ranging koalas display active inbreeding avoidance behaviours. We used VHF tracking data, parentage reconstruction, and veterinary examination results to test whether free‐ranging female koalas avoid mating with (a) more closely related males; and (b) males infected with sexually transmitted Chlamydia pecorum. We found no evidence that female koalas avoid mating with relatively more related available mates. In fact, as the relatedness of potential mates increases, so did inbreeding events. We also found no evidence that female koalas can avoid mating with males infected with C. pecorum. The absence of active inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in koalas is concerning from a conservation perspective, as small, isolated populations may be at even higher risk of inbreeding depression than expected. At risk koala populations may require urgent conservation interventions to augment gene flow and reduce inbreeding risks. Similarly, if koalas are not avoiding mating with individuals with chlamydial disease, populations may be at higher risk from disease than anticipated, further impacting population viability.     

Genetic variation and structuring in the threatened koala populations of Southeast Queensland

Habitat fragmentation can act to cause reproductive isolation between conspecifics and undermine species’ persistence, though most studies have reported the genetic condition of populations that have already declined to a very small size. We examined genetic diversity within the vulnerable, declining koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in Southeast Queensland, Australia to determine the genetic impact of ongoing threatening processes. Five hundred and twelve koalas from ten Southeast Queensland Local Government Areas on the mainland and one island were genotyped at six polymorphic microsatellite loci. Based on Bayesian cluster analysis incorporating spatial data, the regional koala population was subdivided into six clusters, with location of major roads and rivers appearing to be consistent with being barriers to gene flow. The distribution of mtDNA control region haplotypes identified distinct coastal and inland clades suggesting that historically there was gene flow between koalas along the coast (though little interchange between coastal and inland animals). In contrast, koalas from the Koala Coast (Brisbane City, Logan City and Redland Shire) were shown by microsatellite analysis to be genetically distinct from adjacent areas. It is likely, therefore, that more recent reductions in population size and restricted gene flow through urbanisation have contributed to the genetic differentiation of koalas in the Koala Coast region.     

Genetic structure and diversity of the koala population in South Gippsland,Victoria: a remnant population of high conservation significance

In the Australian state of Victoria, the history of koalas and their management has resulted in the homogenisation and reduction of genetic diversity in many contemporary populations. Decreased genetic diversity may reduce a species’ ability to adapt to future environmental pressures such as climate change or disease. The South Gippsland koala population is considered to be unique in Victoria, as it is believed to be a remnant population, not originating from managed populations that have low genetic variation. This study investigated genetic structure and diversity of koalas in South Gippsland, with comparison to other populations in Victoria (French Island/Cape Otway, FI and Raymond Island, RI), New South Wales and south east Queensland. Population analyses were undertaken using both microsatellite genotype and mitochondrial DNA sequence data. Non-invasive sampling of koala scats was used to source koala DNA, allowing 222 South Gippsland koalas to be genotyped. Using nuclear data the South Gippsland koala population was found to be significantly differentiated (D_jost 95% CI SG–RI?=?0.03–0.06 and SG–FI?=?0.08–012) and more diverse (A_R 95% CI SG?=?4.7–5.6, RI?=?3.1–3.3, FI?=?3.0–3.3; p?=?0.001) than other Victorian koala populations, supporting the premise that koalas in the South Gippsland region are part of a remnant population, not derived from translocated island stock. These results were also supported by mitochondrial data where eight haplotypes (Pc4, Pc17, Pc26, Pc27, and Pc56–Pc59) were identified in South Gippsland while a single haplotype (Pc27) was found in all island koalas tested. Compared to other Victorian koala populations, greater genetic diversity found in South Gippsland koalas, may provide this population with a greater chance of survival in the face of future environmental pressures. The South Gippsland koala population is, therefore, of high conservation significance, warranting the implementation of strategies to conserve this population and its diversity into the future.     

Estimating koala density from incidental koala sightings in South‐East Queensland,Australia (1997–2013), using a self‐exciting spatio‐temporal point process model

The koala, Phascolarctos cinereus, is an iconic Australian wildlife species facing a rapid decline in South‐East Queensland (SEQLD). For conservation planning, the ability to estimate the size of koala populations is crucial. Systematic surveys are the most common approach to estimate koala populations but because of their cost they are often restricted to small geographic areas and are conducted infrequently. Public interest and participation in the collection of koala sighting data is increasing in popularity, but such data are generally not used for population estimation. We modeled monthly sightings of koalas reported by members of the public from 1997 to 2013 in SEQLD by developing a self‐exciting spatio‐temporal point process model. This allowed us to account for characteristics that are associated with koala presence (which vary over both space and time) while accounting for detection bias in the koala sighting process and addressing spatial clustering of observations. The density of koalas varied spatially due to the heterogeneous nature of koala habitat in SEQLD, with a mean density of 0.0019 koalas per km² over the study period. The percentage of land areas with very low densities (0–0.0005 koalas per km²) remained similar throughout the study period representing, on average, 66% of the total study area. The approach described in this paper provides a useful starting point to allow greater use to be made of incidental koala sighting data. We propose that the model presented here could be used to combine systematic koala survey data (which is spatially restricted, but more precise) with koala sighting data (which is incidental and often biased by nature, but often collected over large geographical areas). Our approach could also be adopted for modeling the density of other wildlife species where data is collected in the same manner.     

Some aspects of the immune response of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) and in vitro neutralization of chlamydia psittaci (koala strains)

Abstract Western-blot analysis was used to study the reaction of koala antisera, two specific polyclonal antibodies and one monoclonal antibody, with chlamydial antigens in koalas infected with Chlamydia psittaci . The koala sera recognized four C. psittaci surface antigens, corresponding to the major outer membrane protein (39.5 kDa), 31 kDa protein, 18 kDa protein and lipopolysaccharide. The S25-23 LPS specific monoclonal antibody inhibited chlamydial infection (55–67%) with both koala strains (type I and type II). Both koala antiserum and rabbit polyclonal antibodies against either type of chlamydia significantly reduced the number of infected cells resulting from type II infections at a dilution of 1 in 20. Rabbit antiserum against type II was effective in neutralizing infection by type II elementary bodies, but was less effective against type I infection. In addition, no koala antiserum was effective in neutralizing type I infection.     

The Distribution and Abundance of an Island Population of Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in the Far North of Their Geographic Range

Koalas are an iconic species of charismatic megafauna, of substantial social and conservation significance. They are widely distributed, often at low densities, and individuals can be difficult to detect, making population surveys challenging and costly. Consequently, koala population estimates have been limited and the results inconsistent. The aims of this study were to estimate the distribution, relative abundance and population size of the koalas on Magnetic Island, far north Queensland. Population densities were estimated in 18 different vegetation types present on the island using a Fecal Standing Crop Method. Koala density ranged from 0.404 ha⁻¹, recorded in forest red gum and bloodwood woodland, to absence from eight of the vegetation types surveyed. The second highest density of 0.297 koalas ha⁻¹ was recorded in mixed eucalypt woodland, which covers 45% of the island. The total abundance of koalas on Magnetic Island, not including those present in urban areas, was estimated at 825±175 (SEM). The large variation in koala density across vegetation types reinforces the need for sampling stratification when calculating abundance over large areas, as uniformity of habitat quality cannot be assumed. In this context, koala populations also occur in low densities in areas generally regarded as poor quality koala habitat. These results highlight the importance of protecting vegetation communities not traditionally considered to have high conservation value to koalas, as these habitats may be essential for maintaining viable, widespread, low-density populations. The results from this study provide a baseline to assess future trends in koala distribution, density and abundance on Magnetic Island.     

Maternal effort and joey growth in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

The extent to which sex-biased maternal investment characterizes mammals is controversial, with less information available for evaluating patterns of maternal effort in marsupials than in placentals. Koalas Phascolarctos cinereus are size-dimorphic animals with a lengthy period of dependency and they reside in mating systems that might favour sex-biased maternal investment. We examined 18 years of data recorded from koalas living at the San Diego Zoo in order to examine how joey development and maternal condition might be connected. Koalas are pregnant for only 1 month, but joey emergence from the pouch does not occur until 32 weeks of age. Neither maternal condition nor age affected sex ratio at joey emergence, and both sexes had the same survivorship prospects. Koala dams transport and nurse joeys for close to 1 year, at which time the two sexes are size dimorphic. Given the poor-quality diet of koalas, combined with maternal transport of infants who are at least 25% of maternal mass, we suggest that infant rearing poses high energetic costs on koala females. We suggest that ecological and energetic constraints have moulded koala maternal strategies such that females maximize allocation of resources to offspring, regardless of sex, in order to increase prospects for joey survivorship.     

Nutritional Correlates of Koala Persistence in a Low-Density Population

It is widely postulated that nutritional factors drive bottom-up, resource-based patterns in herbivore ecology and distribution. There is, however, much controversy over the roles of different plant constituents and how these influence individual herbivores and herbivore populations. The density of koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations varies widely and many attribute population trends to variation in the nutritional quality of the eucalypt leaves of their diet, but there is little evidence to support this hypothesis. We used a nested design that involved sampling of trees at two spatial scales to investigate how leaf chemistry influences free-living koalas from a low-density population in south east New South Wales, Australia. Using koala faecal pellets as a proxy for koala visitation to trees, we found an interaction between toxins and nutrients in leaves at a small spatial scale, whereby koalas preferred trees with leaves of higher concentrations of available nitrogen but lower concentrations of sideroxylonals (secondary metabolites found exclusively in eucalypts) compared to neighbouring trees of the same species. We argue that taxonomic and phenotypic diversity is likely to be important when foraging in habitats of low nutritional quality in providing diet choice to tradeoff nutrients and toxins and minimise movement costs. Our findings suggest that immediate nutritional concerns are an important priority of folivores in low-quality habitats and imply that nutritional limitations play an important role in constraining folivore populations. We show that, with a careful experimental design, it is possible to make inferences about populations of herbivores that exist at extremely low densities and thus achieve a better understanding about how plant composition influences herbivore ecology and persistence.     

Difficulties of assessing the impacts of the 2019–2020 bushfires on koalas

The 2019–2020 Australian bushfires were unprecedented both in extent and severity, impacting wildlife through direct mortality as well as habitat damage. More than 10% of koala habitat is estimated to have been affected by fires. Estimating the number of koalas lost is crucial to assess koala conservation status and to determine the appropriate management actions required. However, this is not a trivial task, as accurate data on koala distribution and population density before the fires is patchy. Acknowledging this weakness, we sought to estimate fire impact on koalas at specific sites, by comparing habitat areas affected by the fire with habitat areas that were unaffected by the fire, pairing closely related study sites (based on geography and vegetation). To compare koala density, we deployed two koala detection methods; drone-acquired thermal imagery and detection dogs coupled with genetic fingerprinting, in four fire-affected sites paired with four control sites in New South Wales and Queensland. Through drone surveys, we detected 140 koalas in 5,240 ha in New South Wales. The detection dogs found 144 scat samples corresponding to 79 unique koalas in 77 ha of transects in Queensland. Our preliminary results show many koalas were still present in fire-affected areas after the 2019–2020 bushfire season. Koala density was 24 to 71% lower in fire-affected sites compared with control sites in three of the habitat pairs, whereas unexpectedly, in the fourth pair, we observed a 317% higher koala density in the fire-affected site. This underlined that koalas can be present in fire-affected areas and that monitoring their health could be critical for months after the fires.     

Genetic diversity and gene flow among southeastern Queensland koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Habitat fragmentation and destruction associated with the rapid urban and rural development of southeast Queensland presents an immediate threat to the survival of koala populations within this region. A sensitive method combining heteroduplex analysis (HDA) with temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (TGGE) was optimized to detect within-species variation in a mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control-region fragment, approximately 670 bp in length, from the koala. Eight different haplotypes were characterized in koalas, of which four were novel. Analysis of mtDNA diversity in 96 koalas from five populations in southeast Queensland revealed that the number of haplotypes in a single population ranged from one to five, with an average within-population haplotype diversity of 0.379 +/- 0.016, and nucleotide diversity of 0.22 +/- 0.001%. Nucleotide divergence between populations averaged 0.09 +/- 0.001% and ranged from 0.00 to 0.14%. Significant genetic heterogeneity was observed among most populations, suggesting that koala populations may be spatially structured along matrilines, although this may not be universal. The limited distribution of the central phylogenetic haplotype suggested the possibility of historical population bottlenecks north of the Gold Coast, while the presence of two highly divergent haplotypes at the Moreton site may indicate the occurrence of one or more undocumented translocation events into this area.     

Genome-wide SNP loci reveal novel insights into koala (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phascolarctos cinereus</Emphasis>) population variability across its range

The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is an iconic Australian species that is currently undergoing a number of threatening processes, including disease and habitat loss. A thorough understanding of population genetic structuring and genomic variability of this species is essential to effectively manage populations across the species range. Using a reduced representation genome sequencing method known as double digest restriction-associated sequencing, this study has provided the first genome-wide SNP marker panel in the koala. In this study, 33,019 loci were identified in the koala and a filtered panel of 3060 high-utility SNP markers, including 95 sex-linked markers, were used to provide key insights into population variability and genomic variation in 171 koalas from eight populations across their geographic range. Broad-scale genetic differentiation between geographically separated populations (including sub-species) was assessed and revealed significant differentiation between all populations (F_ST range = 0.01–0.28), with the largest divergence observed between the three geographically distant subgroups (QLD, NSW and VIC) along the east coast of Australia (average F_ST range = 0.17–0.23). Sub-group divergence appears to be a reflection of an isolation by distance effect and sampling strategy rather than true evidence of sub-speciation. This is further supported by low proportions of AMOVA variation between sub-species groups (11.19 %). Fine-scale analysis using genome-wide SNP loci and the NETVIEW pipeline revealed cryptic genetic sub-structuring within localised geographic regions, which corresponded to the hierarchical mating system of the species. High levels of genome-wide SNP heterozygosity were observed amongst all populations (He = 0.25–0.35), and when evaluating across the species to other vertebrate taxa were amongst the highest values observed. This illustrates that the species as a whole still retains high levels of diversity which is comparable to other outbred vertebrate taxa for genome-wide SNPs. Insights into the potential for adaptive variation in the koala were also gained using outlier analysis of genome-wide SNPs. A total of 10 putative outlier SNPs were identified indicating the high likelihood of local adaptations within populations and regions. This is the first use of genome-wide markers to assess population differentiation at a broad-scale in the koala and the first time that sex-linked SNPs have been identified in this species. The application of this novel genomic resource to populations across the species range will provide in-depth information allowing informed conservation priorities and management plans for in situ koalas across Australia and ex situ around the world.     

Anthropogenic changes to the landscape resulted in colonization of koalas in north‐east New South Wales,Australia

Significant changes in the distribution and persistence of species have been driven by Pleistocene cyclical climate changes and, more recently, by human modification of the environment. In eastern Australia, Pleistocene cyclical patterns in temperature and aridity led to the expansion and retraction of rainforest and likely affected the distribution of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus, family Phascolarctidae), a species preferring dry or open woodland. More recently, anthropogenic landscape modification has led to a large‐scale change in distribution of the koala following the destruction of approx. 75 000 ha of subtropical rainforest in north‐east New South Wales termed the ‘Big Scrub’. Sharing of the control region haplotypes to the north and south of this region indicate historical connectivity of coastal koala populations. However, the majority (110/115) of sampled koalas from this region shared a single mitochondrial control region haplotype, suggesting that koalas did not persist in multiple refugial pockets within a heterogenous rainforest but expanded into the region following deforestation. Bayesian cluster analysis of microsatellite data consistently identified two clusters of koalas. One cluster, in the north of the area, had high microsatellite diversity (10 alleles per locus, He = 0.79) and clustered with koalas further to the north, thus suggesting a southerly expansion into the cleared area. To the south was a cluster with significantly lower diversity (six alleles per locus, He = 0.59, P < 0.001). It is possible there has been restricted or filtered movement of koalas between these clusters, which coincides with a cleared river valley and associated roads or immigration from populations both to the north and to the south. This study gives an insight into the timescale of changes in species distribution following rapid alterations to suitable habitat.     

Translocation of overabundant species: Implications for translocated individuals

Effective management of overabundant animal populations is a difficult challenge for wildlife managers around the globe. Translocation is often considered a viable management tool, whereby individual animals are removed from areas of high population density and released in areas where densities are lower. Typically, the success of a translocation program is measured at the population source, with little attention given to the fate of translocated individuals. Here we use a koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) translocation program from southeastern Australia as a case study to investigate the effects of translocation on individual animals. The koala is an iconic species that occurs at high densities in some parts of its southern range, leading to numerous conservation and animal welfare issues. Between 1997 and 2007 over 3,000 koalas from a high-density island population were captured, surgically sterilized, and translocated to the mainland. Annual post-translocation surveys at release sites revealed densities of ≤0.4 koalas/ha, despite release densities of 1.0 koala/ha. Radiotracking studies indicate that low densities were because of both mortality and high dispersal of translocated individuals. We observed a mortality rate of 37.5% for translocated koalas in the first 12 months post-release. No deaths occurred among animals that were not sterilized and translocated. Translocated koalas moved greater distances than non-translocated animals. Monitoring of translocated individuals should be performed routinely during translocation programs for overabundant species. Due consideration must be given to what is an acceptable level of mortality for translocated individuals. Although often considered an ethically acceptable management technique (especially for iconic and charismatic species), translocation may not always be the best option from an animal welfare perspective. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Successful artificial insemination in the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) using extended and extended-chilled semen collected by electroejaculation

Artificial insemination in the koala using chilled, electroejaculated semen provides for a marked improvement in the reproductive and genetic management of captive koala colonies in Australia and internationally, and makes available the option of using semen collected from wild populations to expand restricted gene pools. Dilution of koala semen for artificial insemination is complicated because koalas are induced ovulators, and it is thought that ovulating factors are present in the semen, so that semen extension for preservation purposes might be anticipated to result in a failure to induce ovulation. The first two experiments of this study were designed to determine whether artificial insemination using undiluted, extended, and extended-chilled semen collected by electroejaculation was capable of inducing a luteal phase and/or the production of pouch young. In Experiment 1, 1 ml undiluted electroejaculated semen, 2 ml diluted (1:1) semen, and 1 ml diluted (1:1) semen resulted in seven of nine, six of nine, and six of nine koalas showing a luteal phase, respectively; four pouch young were produced in each treatment. A second artificial insemination experiment was conducted in which 2 ml diluted (1:1) semen was administered in three groups of nine koalas. The first group received semen that had been collected and diluted immediately without chilling, the second group was deposited with semen stored chilled for 24 h, and the final group received semen that had been chilled for 72 h. In the first group, five females had a luteal phase, but none became pregnant. In group 2, two of the five females that had a luteal phase gave birth, whereas in group 3, four of the six females that had a luteal phase produced pouch young. In addition, experiment 3 was conducted to determine whether it was possible to produce pouch young by naturally mating koalas that were in the latter stages of their behavioral estrus; this information is important to the logistics of transporting koala semen for artificial insemination by establishing the maximum time frame in which females might be expected to shed a fertile oocyte. Of the 12 females mated on Day 8 of estrus, 6 gave birth, whereas only 3 of the 10 females naturally mated on Day 10 of estrus produced pouch young. The majority of females (21 of 22) in experiment 3 showed evidence of a luteal phase. Together, these experiments have shown that it is possible to use undiluted, extended, or extended-chilled semen to produce koala offspring up to Day 8 of estrus at conception rates similar to those achieved following natural mating. These findings represent a significant advancement in the use of reproductive technology in marsupials and provide the basis for the shipment of koala semen over long distances. The pouch young produced in this study represent the first marsupials born following artificial insemination of extended-chilled semen and bring the total number of koalas produced by artificial insemination to 31.     

Novel molecular markers of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chlamydia pecorum</Emphasis> genetic diversity in the koala (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phascolarctos cinereus</Emphasis>)

Background  

Chlamydia pecorum is an obligate intracellular bacterium and the causative agent of reproductive and ocular disease in several animal hosts including koalas, sheep, cattle and goats. C. pecorum strains detected in koalas are genetically diverse, raising interesting questions about the origin and transmission of this species within koala hosts. While the ompA gene remains the most widely-used target in C. pecorum typing studies, it is generally recognised that surface protein encoding genes are not suited for phylogenetic analysis and it is becoming increasingly apparent that the ompA gene locus is not congruent with the phylogeny of the C. pecorum genome. Using the recently sequenced C. pecorum genome sequence (E58), we analysed 10 genes, including ompA, to evaluate the use of ompA as a molecular marker in the study of koala C. pecorum genetic diversity.     

Identifying multiscale habitat factors influencing koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) occurrence and management in Ballarat, Victoria, Australia

Summary   Modelling for the conservation of koala ( Phascolarctos cinereus ) populations has primarily focused on natural habitat variables (e.g. tree species, soil types and soil moisture). Until recently, limited consideration has been given to modelling the effects of the landscape context (e.g. habitat area, habitat configuration and roads). Yet, the combined influence of natural habitats and anthropogenic impacts at multiple spatial scales are likely to be important determinants of where koala populations occur and remain viable in human-modified landscapes. The study tested the importance of multiscale habitat variables on koala occurrence in Ballarat, Victoria, Australia. The models focused at three spatial scales: site ( <  1 ha), patch (1–100 ha), and landscape (100–1000 s ha). Logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses were used to rank alternative models and key explanatory variables.
The results showed that an increased likelihood of koala presence in fragmented landscapes in the urban–forest interface (as opposed to larger blocks of forest habitat) can best be explained by the positive effects of soil fertility and the presence of preferred koala tree species in these fragmented areas. If koalas are to be effectively conserved in Ballarat, it is critical to (i) protect remaining core areas of high-quality habitat, including regenerating areas; (ii) protect scattered habitat patches which provide connectivity; and (iii) develop and implement habitat restoration programmes to improve habitat connectivity and enhance opportunities for safe koala movement between habitat patches intersected by main roads.     

A Prototype Recombinant-Protein Based Chlamydia pecorum Vaccine Results in Reduced Chlamydial Burden and Less Clinical Disease in Free-Ranging Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Diseases associated with Chlamydia pecorum infection are a major cause of decline in koala populations in Australia. While koalas in care can generally be treated, a vaccine is considered the only option to effectively reduce the threat of infection and disease at the population level. In the current study, we vaccinated 30 free-ranging koalas with a prototype Chlamydia pecorum vaccine consisting of a recombinant chlamydial MOMP adjuvanted with an immune stimulating complex. An additional cohort of 30 animals did not receive any vaccine and acted as comparison controls. Animals accepted into this study were either uninfected (Chlamydia PCR negative) at time of initial vaccination, or infected (C. pecorum positive) at either urogenital (UGT) and/or ocular sites (Oc), but with no clinical signs of chlamydial disease. All koalas were vaccinated / sampled and then re-released into their natural habitat before re-capturing and re-sampling at 6 and 12 months. All vaccinated koalas produced a strong immune response to the vaccine, as indicated by high titres of specific plasma antibodies. The incidence of new infections in vaccinated koalas over the 12-month period post-vaccination was slightly less than koalas in the control group, however, this was not statistically significant. Importantly though, the vaccine was able to significantly reduce the infectious load in animals that were Chlamydia positive at the time of vaccination. This effect was evident at both the Oc and UGT sites and was stronger at 6 months than at 12 months post-vaccination. Finally, the vaccine was also able to reduce the number of animals that progressed to disease during the 12-month period. While the sample sizes were small (statistically speaking), results were nonetheless striking. This study highlights the potential for successful development of a Chlamydia vaccine for koalas in a wild setting.     

An integrated model of Plasmodium falciparum dynamics

The within-host and between-host dynamics of malaria are linked in myriad ways, but most obviously by gametocytes, the parasite blood forms transmissible from human to mosquito. Gametocyte dynamics depend on those of non-transmissible blood forms, which stimulate immune responses, impeding transmission as well as within-host parasite densities. These dynamics can, in turn, influence antigenic diversity and recombination between genetically distinct parasites. Here, we embed a differential-equation model of parasite-immune system interactions within each of the individual humans represented in a discrete-event model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission, and examine the effects of human population turnover, parasite antigenic diversity, recombination, and gametocyte production on the dynamics of malaria. Our results indicate that the local persistence of P. falciparum increases with turnover in the human population and antigenic diversity in the parasite, particularly in combination, and that antigenic diversity arising from meiotic recombination in the parasite has complex differential effects on the persistence of founder and progeny genotypes. We also find that reductions in the duration of individual human infectivity to mosquitoes, even if universal, produce population-level effects only if near-absolute, and that, in competition, the persistence and prevalence of parasite genotypes with gametocyte production concordant with data exceed those of genotypes with higher gametocyte production. This new, integrated approach provides a framework for investigating relationships between pathogen dynamics within an individual host and pathogen dynamics within interacting host and vector populations.     

Brood raiding and the population dynamics of founding and incipient colonies of the fire ant, Solenopsis invicta

Abstract. 1. One of the first activities of minim workers in incipient fire ant nests is mutual brood raiding, the amalgamation of nests through the reciprocal stealing of brood and defection of workers.
2. Discrete mating flights created cohorts of incipient colonies. About 25% of founding nests survived the claustral period of 16–48 days (depending on season). Early incipient colony mortality was 5–6% per day. Over 60% of this mortality was accounted for through brood raiding. Most colonies raided when each cohort first became active, and many raided more than once. Raid size (number of nests, duration, distance) tended to increase during the summer as colonies grew through raiding. After the raiding period, nest mortality rate dropped 3–10-fold. Only 1–3% of founding nests were still alive at this time.
3. Queens from losing or failed nests tended to abandon their nests and attempted to enter successful ones, often following raiding trails to do so. This emigration was at least as successful as non-emigration in ultimately achieving the status of reproductrix of a successful nest (about 4%).
4. Brood raiding is a dominant process in early population dynamics, probably accounting for most of the early nest mortality. Its effect is to change the venue and unit of competition from nest-against-nest to a shifting aggregation of queens, workers and brood involving entire local populations. Nest thinning is thus very rapid, and the boost to the size of winning nests very large, allowing raiding colonies to win the competition for territory, and to achieve the early colony maturity so important to this, and other, weedy species. The importance of winning brood raids may also have driven increased minim production through the evolution of pleometrosis.