Spatiotemporal dynamics of duck harvest distributions in the Central and Mississippi flyways, 1960–2019

Geographical distributions of waterfowl exhibit annual variation in response to spatiotemporal variation in weather conditions, habitat availability, and other factors. Continuing changes in climate and land use could lead to persistent shifts of waterfowl distributions, potentially causing a mismatch with habitat conservation planning, wetland restoration efforts, and harvest management decisions informed by historical distributions. We used band recoveries and harvest records (i.e., hunter-harvested wings) from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Waterfowl Parts Collection Survey as indices of duck distribution in autumn and winter, and quantified intra-annual, interannual, and interspecific variation in their geographic distributions across 6 decades (1960–2019) for 15 duck species in the Central and Mississippi flyways in North America. Specifically, we tested for annual and decadal shifts in mean latitude and longitude of recoveries for each month (Oct–Jan) by species and taxonomic guild (i.e., dabbling, diving ducks). Overall, species varied in the extent, timing, and sometimes direction, of distributional change in recoveries. From 1960–2019, mean recovery locations for dabbling ducks shifted south 105–296 km in October and 27 km in November (wings only), whereas mean latitudes shifted north 144–234 km in December and 186–301 km in January. Mean recovery locations for diving ducks shifted north 162 km in October (wings only), 84–173 km in December, and 66–120 km in January, but shifted 99–512 km south in November. Shifts in longitude were less consistent between guilds and data types. Finally, distributional change rarely accelerated during recent decades, except for southward shifts of band recoveries of diving ducks in November and northward shifts of band and wing recoveries of dabbling ducks in January. Although anecdotal accounts of large-scale northward shifts in duck distributions are prolific in the land management and hunting communities, our data demonstrate more subtle shifts that vary considerably by species and month. Observed changes in recovery distributions could necessitate changes in timing of habitat management practices throughout the Central and Mississippi flyways and may result in fewer hunting and recreational opportunities for some species in southern states. Quantifying patterns of historical change is a necessary first step to understanding temporal and interspecific variation in waterfowl distributions, which will help with landscape-scale conservation and management efforts in the future and enable effective communication to core constituencies regarding ongoing changes and their implications for recreational engagement.     

Evaluation of an Aerial Survey to Estimate Abundance of Wintering Ducks in Mississippi

Abstract: Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (Ǐ), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (Ň) for 14 surveys during winters 2002–2004. Correcting for bias increased estimates of mallards, other dabbling ducks, and diving ducks by an average of 40–48% among all surveys and contributed 48–61% of the estimated variance of Ň. However, mean-squared errors were consistently less for Ň than Ǐ. Estimates of Ň met our goals for precision (CV ≤ 15%) in 7 of 14 surveys for mallards, 5 surveys for other dabbling ducks, no surveys for diving ducks, and 10 surveys for total ducks. Generally, we estimated more mallards and other dabbling ducks in mid- and late winter (Jan-Feb) than early winter (Nov-Dec) and determined that population indices from the late 1980s were nearly 3 times greater than those from our study. We developed a method to display relative densities of ducks spatially as an additional application of survey data. Our study advanced methods of estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl, and we recommend this design for continued monitoring of wintering ducks in western Mississippi and similar physiographic regions.     

Patterns of habitat and invertebrate diet overlap between tiger salamanders and ducks in prairie potholes

During the breeding season, migratory waterfowl are attracted to wetlands characterized by high macroinvertebrate availability. Many of these prairie potholes are fishless and this apparent void is filled, at least partially, by tiger salamanders. Based on gut contents from 98 tiger salamanders and published diet data from over 1500 ducks, we show that there is general overlap in diet between both larval and adult tiger salamanders and 10 duck species. Furthermore, when the ducks were split into foraging guilds and compared with tiger salamanders, prey type overlap was 1.7 times higher and prey size was 1.8 times higher with dabbling ducks than diving ducks. Field surveys show that tiger salamander density is more highly correlated with diving duck density across potholes than dabbling duck density. Tiger salamanders have higher diet overlap with dabbling ducks than diving ducks whereas tiger salamanders have higher spatial overlap with diving ducks than dabbling ducks suggesting that these consumers coarsely partition diet and habitat resources. It has been reported that tiger salamanders have specialized diets that are associated with foraging preferences for benthic habitats. This view is too narrow: in southwestern Manitoba, Canada, tiger salamanders are more general consumers with diets more like dabbling ducks that forage mostly in planktonic and littoral habitats. Our results suggest that dabbling and diving ducks are, to different extents, liable to the effects of indirect interactions, specifically competition for common prey, with tiger salamanders.     

Weather-Related Indices of Autumn– Winter Dabbling Duck Abundance in Middle North America

ABSTRACT Research on effects of key weather stimuli influencing waterfowl migration during autumn and winter is limited. We investigated relationships between changes in relative abundances of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and other dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) and weather variables at midlatitude locations in North America. We used waterfowl survey data from Missouri Conservation Areas and temperature and snow cover data from the Historical Climatology Network to evaluate competing models to explain changes in relative abundance of ducks in Missouri, USA, during autumn-winter, 1995–2005. We found that a cumulative weather severity index model (CumulativeWSI; calculated as mean daily temp - degrees C + no. of consecutive days with mean temp ≤ 0° C + snow depth + no. of consecutive days with snow cover) had the greatest weight of evidence in explaining changes in relative abundance of ducks. We concluded the CumulativeWSI reflected current and cumulative effects of ambient temperatures on energy expenditure by ducks, and snow cover and wetland icing, on food availability for ducks. The CumulativeWSI may be useful in determining potential changes in autumn-winter distributions of North American waterfowl given different climate change projections and associated changes in habitat conservation needs. Future investigations should address interactions between CumulativeWSI and landscape habitat quality, regional waterfowl populations, hunter harvest, and other anthropogenic influences to increase understanding of waterfowl migration during autumn-winter.     

Livestock grazing in intermountain depressional wetlands: effects on breeding waterfowl

Livestock grazing is a prevalent land use in western North American intermountain wetlands, and physical and biotic changes related to grazing-related disturbance can potentially limit wetland habitat value for waterfowl. We evaluated breeding waterfowl use in 34 wetlands in relation to water retention, amount of wetlands on the landscape, and livestock grazing intensity. The study was conducted over 2 years in the southern intermountain region of British Columbia, Canada. For a subset of 17 wetlands, we measured aquatic invertebrate abundance over 1 year. Waterfowl breeding pairs and broods were classified into three functional groups: dabbling ducks, and two types of diving ducks, overwater and cavity nesters. We evaluated candidate models with variables considered singly and in combination using the Akaike Information Criterion. When selected, bare ground (an indicator of grazing intensity) and wetland density were negatively associated with breeding use while wetland fullness and invertebrate density were positively associated. Each factor was a significant predictor in at least one of the models, but unexpectedly, grazing intensity was the most consistent predictor of waterfowl wetland use (e.g., it was present in more ‘best models’ than wetland fullness). Grazing was associated with declines in the number of waterfowl pairs and broods, likely mediated through effects on wetland vegetation and aquatic macroinvertebrates. Models with site- and landscape-scale variables generally performed better than simpler models. Waterfowl breeding use of wetlands can be improved by reduced livestock grazing intensity adjacent to wetlands and by grazing later in the season. Wetland water retention is also an important constraint on waterfowl use of wetlands and may become more limiting with a shifting climate.     

Community Structure of Wetland Birds During Spring Migration Through the Rainwater Basin

Abstract: Staging areas and migratory stopovers of wetland birds have the potential to function as geographic bottlenecks; entire populations within a flyway may be affected by the quality and quantity of available wetland habitat at stopover sites. Although approximately 90% of playa wetlands in the Rainwater Basin (RWB) region of south-central Nebraska, USA, have been destroyed, the area still provides essential stopover habitat for >10 million waterfowl each spring. We evaluated community patterns and species associations to assess importance of assembly rules in structuring wetland bird communities during migration and to better facilitate multispecies conservation and management strategies. We surveyed 36–40 playas twice weekly in the RWB and observed approximately 2.6 million individual migratory wetland birds representing 72 species during 3 spring migrations 2002–2004. We evaluated spatial and temporal species co-occurrence patterns of geese, dabbling ducks, diving ducks, and shorebirds using null model analysis. Goose species co-occurrence scores did not differ from random in any year of the study, suggesting that goose species frequently use the same habitats during migration. Co-occurrence patterns among dabbling ducks were not different than expected by chance in any year; however, when we evaluated co-occurrence at a weekly scale, dabbling ducks co-occurred less often than expected during weeks of peak migration (high abundance), indicating that dabbling duck species spatially segregated at high densities. Diving duck co-occurrence patterns did not differ from random in any year, suggesting that diving duck species used the same habitats during migration. Shorebird species co-occurred less often than expected in 2002 and 2004, and during weeks of high shorebird abundance, indicating that shorebird communities were distinctly structured during those times. Most association values among lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens) and dabbling duck species were positive, indicating dabbling ducks did not avoid wetlands with snow geese, a concern for waterfowl managers. However, we frequently observed snow geese and dabbling ducks using different microhabitats within a wetland, which indicate species associations and co-occurrence patterns may have occurred at a finer spatial scale than we measured. This approach of co-occurrence analysis will allow wildlife managers charged with multispecies management at migration stopover sites to make informed conservation and management decisions based on community structure rather than historic single-species approaches.     

Half-Century Winter Duck Abundance and Temperature Trends in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways

Increasing concerns exist about possible decreased wintering duck abundance and hunting opportunities in the southern regions of the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways of North America. Researchers suggest these decreased abundances of ducks may be related to winter warming and related climatic phenomena. Accordingly, we tested predictions that duck abundance was increasing more at northern than southern latitudes, and that trends were related to average winter temperatures (Dec–Jan). We tested predictions using National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data collected during December 1969 through January 2019 from 31 states in the United States and 6 Canadian provinces that comprise the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways for 16 species of dabbling and diving ducks (Anatinae). We found support for the prediction that CBC trends in duck abundance vary with latitude, and mean winter temperature explained nearly half the variation in CBC trends for 12 of 16 species. For some species, trends were negative in warmer regions and positive in colder regions. For others, trends were stable or slightly positive in warmer regions but more positive in colder regions. These results provide empirical evidence supporting climate-influenced winter range changes by important game duck species and suggest challenges and opportunities for waterfowl population, habitat, and hunting management in North America and the northern hemisphere. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Potential use of weather radar to study movements of wintering waterfowl

To protect and restore wintering waterfowl habitat, managers require knowledge of routine wintering waterfowl movements and habitat use. During preliminary screening of Doppler weather radar data we observed biological movements consistent with routine foraging flights of wintering waterfowl known to occur near Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Louisiana. During the winters of 2004–2005 and 2005–2006, we conducted field surveys to identify the source of the radar echoes emanating from Lacassine NWR. We compared field data to weather radar reflectivity data. Spatial and temporal patterns consistent with foraging flight movements appeared in weather radar data on all dates of field surveys. Dabbling ducks were the dominant taxa flying within the radar beam during the foraging flight period. Using linear regression, we found a positive log-linear relationship between average radar reflectivity (Z) and number of birds detected over the study area (P < 0.001, r² = 0.62, n = 40). Ground observations and the statistically significant relationship between radar data and field data confirm that Doppler weather radar recorded the foraging flights of dabbling ducks. Weather radars may be effective tools for wintering waterfowl management because they provide broad-scale views of both diurnal and nocturnal movements. In addition, an extensive data archive enables the study of wintering waterfowl response to habitat loss, agricultural practices, wetland restoration, and other research questions that require multiple years of data. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between‐year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.     

Native brook trout and invasive rainbow trout respond differently to seasonal weather variation: Spawning timing matters

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Effects of Local and Landscape Variables on Wetland Bird Habitat Use During Migration Through the Rainwater Basin

ABSTRACT Staging areas and migratory stopovers of wetland birds can function as geographic bottlenecks; common dependence among migratory wetland bird species on these sites has major implications for wetland conservation. Although 90% of playa wetlands in the Rainwater Basin (RWB) region of Nebraska, USA, have been destroyed, the area still provides essential stopover habitat for up to 10 million waterfowl each spring. Our objectives were to determine local (within wetland and immediate watershed) and landscape-scale factors influencing wetland bird abundance and species richness during spring migration at RWB playas. We surveyed 36–40 playas twice weekly in the RWB and observed approximately 1.6 million individual migratory wetland birds representing 72 species during spring migrations 2002–2004. We tested a priori hypotheses about whether local and landscape variables influenced overall species richness and abundance of geese, dabbling ducks, diving ducks, and shorebirds. Wetland area had a positive influence on goose abundance in all years, whereas percent emergent vegetation and hunting pressure had negative influences. Models predicting dabbling duck abundance differed among years; however, individual wetland area and area of semipermanent wetlands within 10 km of the study wetland consistently had a positive influence on dabbling duck abundance. Percent emergent vegetation also was a positive predictor of dabbling duck abundance in all years, indicating that wetlands with intermediate (50%) vegetation coverage have the greatest dabbling duck abundance. Shorebird abundance was positively influenced by wetland area and number of wetlands within 10 km and negatively influenced by water depth. Wetland area, water depth, and area of wetlands within 10 km were all equally important in models predicting overall species richness. Total species richness was positively influenced by wetland area and negatively influenced by water depth and area of semipermanent wetlands within 10 km. Avian species richness also was greatest in wetlands with intermediate vegetation coverage. Restoring playa hydrology should promote intermediate percent cover of emergent vegetation, which will increase use by dabbling ducks and shorebirds, and decrease snow goose (Chen caerulescens) use of these wetlands. We observed a reduction in dabbling duck abundance on wetlands open to spring snow goose hunting and recommend further investigation of the effects of this conservation order on nontarget species. Our results indicate that wildlife managers at migration stopover areas should conserve wetlands in complexes to meet the continuing and future habitat requirements of migratory birds, especially dabbling ducks, during spring migration.     

Breeding site fidelity of blue-winged teal in South Dakota

Assumptions about breeding site fidelity (i.e., fidelity) in blue-winged teal (Spatula discors) are based on limited recapture data and analytic techniques. We banded female blue-winged teal (n = 12,543) from 2003 to 2014 in a 3,800-ha sample area in north-central South Dakota, USA, and used a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach combining live recapture and dead recovery data to predict probabilities of fidelity, survival, recapture, and reporting. We explored sources of variation including time, annual wet area on the landscape, age, and nest survival, and compared our results to other dabbling ducks that nest in the Prairie Pothole Region, a critically important breeding area for waterfowl in central North America. We found annual estimates of fidelity ranging from 0.20 to 0.91, with mean values of 0.62 and 0.67 for hatch year birds and after hatch year birds, respectively. Our findings indicate that environmental factors may cause blue-winged teal to return to breeding sites more frequently than previously assumed. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Waterfowl-wetland relationships in the Aspen Parkland of British Columbia: comparison of analytical methods

We explored the relationships between aquatic bird abundance and various pond features (physical and chemical) using data from 112 ponds located in the Aspen Parkland of British Columbia. As expected, pond size was the most important factor influencing the number of aquatic birds present. Total dissolved nitrogen, conductivity and calcium were positively associated with the abundance of several species whereas chloride tended to be negatively associated. The abundance of dabbling ducks was positively associated with turbidity and total dissolved nitrogen and negatively with percent of forested shoreline, percent of marsh and chloride. The abundance of diving ducks was associated positively with pond depth, conductivity and total dissolved nitrogen and negatively with percent of marsh and phosphorus levels. Pond area influenced more the abundance of diving ducks than dabbling ducks. Relationships between bird density and pond features were affected significantly by the area unit used to calculate density. For example, the density of Bufehead (Bucephala albeola) was correlated positively with pH and conductivity when expressed per area of water 0–2 m deep but negatively when expressed per total area of pond. Results highlight the problems associated with interpreting correlative type studies especially the difficulties in assessing the biological significance of the observed correlations. It underscores the urgent need for experimental approaches to bird-habitat studies.     

Increased nest defence of upland‐nesting ducks in response to experimentally reduced risk of nest predation

Parent birds should take greater risks defending nests that have a higher probability of success. Given high rates of mammalian nest predation, therefore, parents should risk more for nests in areas with a lower risk of mammalian predation. We tested this hypothesis using nest defence data from over 1300 nests of six species of dabbling ducks studied in an area where predation risk had been reduced through removal of mammalian predators. When predator removal reduced nest predation, the ducks increased risk taking as predicted. Also as predicted, risk taking varied inversely with body size, an index of annual survival, among species. For ducks to vary nest defence in response to variation in predation risk they must be able to assess the risk of nest predation. Because ducks modified nest defence in the breeding season immediately following predator removal, ducks may be able to assess predator abundance indirectly (e.g. by UV reflection from urine) rather than by seeing or interacting directly with the predators.     

Variation in the Diet of Ducks During Spring Migration

Because management practices that promote the production of plant foods may differ from management practices that promote the production of aquatic invertebrates, a thorough understanding of the diet is needed to develop management strategies for various stages of the annual cycle for dabbling and diving ducks. Diet of dabbling (tribe Anatini) and diving (tribe Aythyini) ducks during breeding, autumn migration, and winter has been documented. Our goal was to estimate and compare the diet of blue-winged teal (Spatula discors), gadwall (Mareca strepera), mallard (Anas platyrhyncos), lesser scaup (Aythya affinis), and ring-necked duck (Aythya collaris) during spring migration in the Mississippi Flyway in the United States and evaluate variation among species. We collected 919 ducks for diet analysis from multiple wetlands at 6 sites across 4 states during the spring migration of 2006 and 2007. We collected ≥10 individuals of each species at each of the 6 study sites except we collected only 1 gadwall at the Scioto River site and 2 lesser scaup at the Cache River site. We detected that the proportion of plant and animal material in foods of each spring migrating duck species was in general intermediate of that found in wintering and breeding birds. Furthermore, the proportion of plant and animal material in the diet of species varied even among closely related species, indicating species are partitioning food sources along a protein-carbohydrate gradient during spring migration. We recommend that resources for ducks be managed to provide diverse wetlands to support the varied diets of even closely related species. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Apparent seed use by ducks in moist-soil wetlands of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Scientists, conservation planners, and resource managers who estimate energetic carrying capacity of foraging habitats for wintering waterfowl require accurate data on food availability and use. We estimated seed and tuber abundance in moist-soil wetlands commonly used and foraged in by dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) in and near the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). To identify foods potentially used by dabbling ducks, we surveyed food-use literature from studies conducted in or near the MAV and compared estimated seed decline rates from core samples to predicted decline rates using published and measured estimates of decomposition. We inferred seed use when observed declines in mass exceeded that predicted by decomposition. In our analyses, we identified 15 taxa of moist-soil seeds apparently used and 6 taxa apparently not used by dabbling ducks. From our analyses and literature review, we identified 25 taxa of moist-soil seeds and tubers commonly consumed and apparently used by dabbling ducks in or near the MAV. Removal of seeds apparently not used by dabbling ducks resulted in a 30.9% (SE = 1.3) reduction in estimates of seed and tuber mass in managed moist-soil wetlands in the MAV. When we retained 3 seed taxa reported by previous studies as consumed by dabbling ducks, but which did not decline faster than predicted in our experimental wetlands, seed and tuber estimates were reduced by 26.8% (SE = 1.3). Inclusion of seeds not consumed by dabbling ducks in models of carrying capacity would result in overestimation of existence energy days by the Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture and underestimation of moist-soil habitat requirements in the MAV. We suggest scientists conduct food-use and selection studies by collecting actively foraging ducks in the MAV to confirm our results and increase accuracy of carrying capacity estimates for dabbling ducks in autumn and winter. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Annual climate in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat in the Sacramento Mountains,New Mexico: implications for responding to climate change

Global climate change presents a growing conservation threat, but our understanding of the effects of climate change remains limited for most species. We evaluated the annual climate cycle for threatened Mexican Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis lucida) in high-elevation mixed-conifer forests in the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico from 2005 to 2010. We used data from a network of weather stations in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat to describe annual temperature cycles, and precipitation data from a National Weather Service weather station to describe the annual precipitation cycle. We coupled these data with equations from the literature to estimate annual cycles in resting metabolic rate and evaporative water loss, and evaluated the potential effects of a warming climate on these parameters. Annual weather was characterized by cold, dry winters, warmer and dry springs, warm and wet summers, and cool and relatively wet falls. Ambient temperature never exceeded the upper critical temperature for Mexican Spotted Owls (35.2°C), but > 90% of 663,422 hourly temperature observations were below the lower critical temperature (18.2°C). Thus, heat stress was not predicted to occur, but owls likely expended energy on thermoregulation at low temperatures. Resting energy use peaked during winter (December–February) and was lowest when owls would be feeding young (May–August). In contrast, evaporative water loss peaked from June to August, when precipitation also peaked. Mexican Spotted Owls generally appeared well-adapted to the current climate cycle in our montane study area, but late winter (February–March) may be a critical period in terms of energy requirements, and late spring (April–May) may be critical in terms of water relationships. Predicted changes in temperature through 2099 would result in reductions in predicted energy use by Mexican Spotted Owls, but increases in predicted water use. Water relationships may become increasingly important for Mexican Spotted Owls in the face of climate change, especially in warmer and drier areas. In forested areas, retaining patches of older forest with high canopy cover in cool, mesic sites may provide continued benefits to Mexican Spotted Owls under climate change.     

Maintenance and dissemination of avian-origin influenza A virus within the northern Atlantic Flyway of North America

Wild waterbirds, the natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses, undergo migratory movements each year, connecting breeding and wintering grounds within broad corridors known as flyways. In a continental or global view, the study of virus movements within and across flyways is important to understanding virus diversity, evolution, and movement. From 2015 to 2017, we sampled waterfowl from breeding (Maine) and wintering (Maryland) areas within the Atlantic Flyway (AF) along the east coast of North America to investigate the spatio-temporal trends in persistence and spread of influenza A viruses (IAV). We isolated 109 IAVs from 1,821 cloacal / oropharyngeal samples targeting mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and American black ducks (Anas rubripes), two species having ecological and conservation importance in the flyway that are also host reservoirs of IAV. Isolates with >99% nucleotide similarity at all gene segments were found between eight pairs of birds in the northern site across years, indicating some degree of stability among genome constellations and the possibility of environmental persistence. No movement of whole genome constellations were identified between the two parts of the flyway, however, virus gene flow between the northern and southern study locations was evident. Examination of banding records indicate direct migratory waterfowl movements between the two locations within an annual season, providing a mechanism for the inferred viral gene flow. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for virus dissemination from other North American wild birds to AF dabbling ducks (Anatinae), shorebirds (Charidriformes), and poultry (Galliformes). Evidence was found for virus dissemination from shorebirds to gulls (Laridae), and dabbling ducks to shorebirds and poultry. The findings from this study contribute to the understanding of IAV ecology in waterfowl within the AF.     

Estimating partial observability and nonlinear climate effects on stochastic community dynamics of migratory waterfowl

1. Understanding the impact of environmental variability on migrating species requires the estimation of sequential abiotic effects in different geographic areas across the life cycle. For instance, waterfowl (ducks, geese and swans) usually breed widely dispersed throughout their breeding range and gather in large numbers in their wintering headquarters, but there is a lack of knowledge on the effects of the sequential environmental conditions experienced by migrating birds on the long-term community dynamics at their wintering sites. 2. Here, we analyse multidecadal time-series data of 10 waterfowl species wintering in the Guadalquivir Marshes (SW Spain), the single most important wintering site for waterfowl breeding in Europe. We use a multivariate state-space approach to estimate the effects of biotic interactions, local environmental forcing during winter and large-scale climate during breeding and migration on wintering multispecies abundance fluctuations, while accounting for partial observability (observation error and missing data) in both population and environmental data. 3. The joint effect of local weather and large-scale climate explained 31·6% of variance at the community level, while the variability explained by interspecific interactions was negligible (<5%). In general, abiotic conditions during winter prevailed over conditions experienced during breeding and migration. Across species, a pervasive and coherent nonlinear signal of environmental variability on population dynamics suggests weaker forcing at extreme values of abiotic variables. 4. Modelling missing observations through data augmentation increased the estimated magnitude of environmental forcing by an average 30·1% and reduced the impact of stochasticity by 39·3% when accounting for observation error. Interestingly however, the impact of environmental forcing on community dynamics was underestimated by an average 15·3% and environmental stochasticity overestimated by 14·1% when ignoring both observation error and data augmentation. 5. These results provide a salient example of sequential multiscale environmental forcing in a major migratory bird community, which suggests a demographic link between the breeding and wintering grounds operating through nonlinear environmental effects. Remarkably, this study highlights that modelling observation error in the environmental covariates of an ecological model can be proportionally more important than modelling this source of variance in the population data.