Modeling Future Conservation of Hawaiian Honeycreepers by Mosquito Management and Translocation of Disease-Tolerant Amakihi

Avian malaria is an important cause of the decline of endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Because of the complexity of this disease system we used a computer model of avian malaria in forest birds to evaluate how two proposed conservation strategies: 1) reduction of habitat for mosquito larvae and 2) establishment of a low-elevation, malaria-tolerant honeycreeper (Hawaii Amakihi) to mid-elevation forests would affect native Hawaiian honeycreeper populations. We evaluated these approaches in mid-elevation forests, where malaria transmission is seasonal and control strategies are more likely to work. Our model suggests the potential benefit of larval habitat reduction depends on the level of malaria transmission, abundance of larval cavities, and the ability to substantially reduce these cavities. Permanent reduction in larval habitat of >80% may be needed to control abundance of infectious mosquitoes and benefit bird populations. Establishment of malaria-tolerant Amakihi in mid-elevation forests increases Amakihi abundance, creates a larger disease reservoir, and increases the abundance of infectious mosquitoes which may negatively impact other honeycreepers. For mid-elevation sites where bird populations are severely affected by avian malaria, malaria-tolerant Amakihi had little impact on other honeycreepers. Both management strategies may benefit native Hawaiian honeycreepers, but benefits depend on specific forest characteristics, the amount of reduction in larval habitat that can be achieved, and how malaria transmission is affected by temperature.     

Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry

Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.     

Investigation of a Simple Model for Within-Flock Transmission of Scrapie

Genetic control programs for scrapie in sheep build on solid knowledge of how susceptibility to scrapie is modulated by the prion protein genotype at the level of an individual sheep. In order to satisfactorily analyze the effectivity of control programs at the population level, insight is needed at the flock level, i.e., how the grouping of sheep in flocks affects the population-level transmission risk. In particular, one would like to understand how this risk is affected by between-flock differences in genotype frequency distribution. A first step is to model the scrapie transmission risk within a flock as a function of the flock genotype profile. Here we do so by estimating parameters for a model of within-flock transmission using genotyping data on Dutch flocks affected by scrapie. We show that the data are consistent with a relatively simple transmission model assuming horizontal transmission and homogeneous mixing between animals. The model expresses the basic reproduction number for within-flock scrapie as a weighted average of genotype-specific susceptibilities, multiplied by a single overall transmission parameter. The value of the overall transmission parameter may vary between flocks to account for random between-flock variation in non-genetic determinants such as management practice. Here we provide an estimate of its mean value and variation for Dutch flocks.     

Effects of ivermectin treatment of backyard chickens on mosquito dynamics and West Nile virus transmission

BackgroundVector control strategies typically rely on pesticides to target mosquitoes involved in enzootic and zoonotic transmission of West Nile virus (WNV). Nevertheless, increasing insecticide resistance and a desire to reduce pesticide usage provide the impetus for developing alternative strategies. Ivermectin (IVM), an antiparasitic drug which is widely used in human and veterinary medicine, is a potential alternative for targeted control because Culex mosquitoes experience increased mortality following ingestion of IVM in bloodmeals.Methodology/Principal findingsWe conducted a randomized field trial to investigate the impact of treating backyard chicken flocks with IVM in urban neighborhoods across Davis, California on mosquito populations and WNV transmission dynamics. We observed a significant reduction in WNV seroconversions in treated vs. untreated chickens, suggesting a reduction in WNV transmission intensity around treated flocks. We also detected a reduction in parity rates of Cx. tarsalis near treated vs. untreated flocks and increased mortality in wild mosquitoes following a bloodmeal on treated chickens (IVM serum concentration > 5ng/mL) vs. chickens with IVM serum concentrations < 5 ng/mL. However, we did not find a significant difference in abundance or infection prevalence in mosquitoes between treatment groups associated with the reductions in seroconversions. Mosquito immigration from surrounding larval habitat, relatively low WNV activity in the study area, and variable IVM serum concentrations likely contributed to uncertainty about the impact.Conclusions/SignificanceTaken together, our results point to a reduction in WNV transmission due to the impact of IVM on Culex mosquito populations and support the ongoing investigation of oral administration of IVM to wild birds for local control of WNV transmission, although further work is needed to optimize dosing and understand effects on entomological endpoints.     

Quantifying transmission of Campylobacter spp. among broilers

Campylobacter species are frequently identified as a cause of human gastroenteritis, often from eating or mishandling contaminated poultry products. Quantitative knowledge of transmission of Campylobacter in broiler flocks is necessary, as this may help to determine the moment of introduction of Campylobacter in broiler flocks more precisely. The aim of this study was to determine the transmission rate parameter in broiler flocks. Four experiments were performed, each with four Campylobacter-inoculated chicks housed with 396 contact chicks per group. Colonization was monitored by regularly testing fecal samples for Campylobacter. A mathematical model was used to quantify the transmission rate, which was determined to be 1.04 new cases per colonized chick per day. This would imply that, for example, in a flock of 20,000 broilers, the prevalence of Campylobacter would increase from 5% to 95% within 6 days after Campylobacter introduction. The model and the estimated transmission rate parameter can be used to develop a suitable sampling scheme to determine transmission in commercial broiler flocks, to estimate whether control measures can reduce the transmission rate, or to estimate when Campylobacter was introduced into a colonized broiler flock on the basis of the time course of transmission in the flock.     

Transmission dynamics of low pathogenicity avian influenza infections in Turkey flocks

Low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of H5 and H7 subtypes have the potential to mutate into highly pathogenic strains (HPAI), which can threaten human health and cause huge economic losses. The current knowledge on the mechanisms of mutation from LPAI to HPAI is insufficient for predicting which H5 or H7 strains will mutate into an HPAI strain, and since the molecular changes necessary for the change in virulence seemingly occur at random, the probability of mutation depends on the number of virus replicates, which is associated with the number of birds that acquire infection. We estimated the transmission dynamics of LPAI viruses in turkeys using serosurveillance data from past epidemics in Italy. We fitted the proportions of birds infected in 36 flocks into a hierarchical model to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and possible variations in R(0) among flocks caused by differences among farms. We also estimated the distributions of the latent and infectious periods, using experimental infection data with outbreak strains. These were then combined with the R(0) to simulate LPAI outbreaks and characterise the resulting dynamics. The estimated mean within-flock R(0) in the population of infected flocks was 5.5, indicating that an infectious bird would infect an average of more than five susceptible birds. The results also indicate that the presence of seropositive birds does not necessarily mean that the virus has already been cleared and the flock is no longer infective, so that seropositive flocks may still constitute a risk of infection for other flocks. In light of these results, the enforcement of appropriate restrictions, the culling of seropositive flocks, or pre-emptive slaughtering may be useful. The model and parameter estimates presented in this paper provide the first complete picture of LPAI dynamics in turkey flocks and could be used for designing a suitable surveillance program.     

Optimal isolation control strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis of a two-strain avian influenza model

The most important and effective measures against disease outbreaks in the absence of valid medicines or vaccine are quarantine and isolation strategies. In this paper optimal control theory is applied to a system of ordinary differential equation describing a two-strain avian influenza transmission via the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. To this end, a pair of control variables representing the isolation strategies for individuals with avian and mutant strains were incorporated into the transmission model. The infection averted ratio (IAR) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated to investigate the cost-effectiveness of all possible combinations of the control strategies. The simulation results show that the implementation of the combination strategy during the epidemic is the most cost-effective strategy for avian influenza transmission. This is followed by the control strategy involving isolation of individuals with the mutant strain. Also observed was the fact that low mutating and more virulent virus results in an increased control effort of isolating individuals with the avian strain; and high mutating with more virulent virus results in increased efforts in isolating individuals with the mutant strain.     

A mathematical model of avian influenza with half-saturated incidence

The widespread impact of avian influenza viruses not only poses risks to birds, but also to humans. The viruses spread from birds to humans and from human to human In addition, mutation in the primary strain will increase the infectiousness of avian influenza. We developed a mathematical model of avian influenza for both bird and human populations. The effect of half-saturated incidence on transmission dynamics of the disease is investigated. The half-saturation constants determine the levels at which birds and humans contract avian influenza. To prevent the spread of avian influenza, the associated half-saturation constants must be increased, especially the half-saturation constant H _m for humans with mutant strain. The quantity H _m plays an essential role in determining the basic reproduction number of this model. Furthermore, by decreasing the rate β _m at which human-to-human mutant influenza is contracted, an outbreak can be controlled more effectively. To combat the outbreak, we propose both pharmaceutical (vaccination) and non-pharmaceutical (personal protection and isolation) control methods to reduce the transmission of avian influenza. Vaccination and personal protection will decrease β _m, while isolation will increase H _m. Numerical simulations demonstrate that all proposed control strategies will lead to disease eradication; however, if we only employ vaccination, it will require slightly longer to eradicate the disease than only applying non-pharmaceutical or a combination of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical control methods. In conclusion, it is important to adopt a combination of control methods to fight an avian influenza outbreak.     

Quantifying Transmission of Campylobacter spp. among Broilers

Campylobacter species are frequently identified as a cause of human gastroenteritis, often from eating or mishandling contaminated poultry products. Quantitative knowledge of transmission of Campylobacter in broiler flocks is necessary, as this may help to determine the moment of introduction of Campylobacter in broiler flocks more precisely. The aim of this study was to determine the transmission rate parameter in broiler flocks. Four experiments were performed, each with four Campylobacter-inoculated chicks housed with 396 contact chicks per group. Colonization was monitored by regularly testing fecal samples for Campylobacter. A mathematical model was used to quantify the transmission rate, which was determined to be 1.04 new cases per colonized chick per day. This would imply that, for example, in a flock of 20,000 broilers, the prevalence of Campylobacter would increase from 5% to 95% within 6 days after Campylobacter introduction. The model and the estimated transmission rate parameter can be used to develop a suitable sampling scheme to determine transmission in commercial broiler flocks, to estimate whether control measures can reduce the transmission rate, or to estimate when Campylobacter was introduced into a colonized broiler flock on the basis of the time course of transmission in the flock.     

Quantifying Transmission of Campylobacter jejuni in Commercial Broiler Flocks

Since meat from poultry colonized with Campylobacter spp. is a major cause of bacterial gastroenteritis, human exposure should be reduced by, among other things, prevention of colonization of broiler flocks. To obtain more insight into possible sources of introduction of Campylobacter into broiler flocks, it is essential to estimate the moment that the first bird in a flock is colonized. If the rate of transmission within a flock were known, such an estimate could be determined from the change in the prevalence of colonized birds in a flock over time. The aim of this study was to determine the rate of transmission of Campylobacter using field data gathered for 5 years for Australian broiler flocks. We used unique sampling data for 42 Campylobacter jejuni-colonized flocks and estimated the transmission rate, which is defined as the number of secondary infections caused by one colonized bird per day. The estimate was 2.37 ± 0.295 infections per infectious bird per day, which implies that in our study population colonized flocks consisting of 20,000 broilers would have an increase in within-flock prevalence to 95% within 4.4 to 7.2 days after colonization of the first broiler. Using Bayesian analysis, the moment of colonization of the first bird in a flock was estimated to be from 21 days of age onward in all flocks in the study. This study provides an important quantitative estimate of the rate of transmission of Campylobacter in broiler flocks, which could be helpful in future studies on the epidemiology of Campylobacter in the field.     

安徽省禽呼肠孤病毒感染的血清学调查

目的了解禽呼肠孤病毒(Avian reovirus,ARV)在安徽省鸡和鸭群中的感染情况。方法应用ELISA方法对采自安徽省205份鸡血清和218份鸭血清进行ARV抗体检测。结果肉鸡阳性率为55.88%,蛋鸡阳性率为92.23%,鸭群感染率为43.12%。结论禽呼肠孤病毒感染在安徽省鸡群和鸭群中感染较为普遍,应引起高度重视。     

Scientific barriers to developing vaccines against avian influenza viruses

The increasing number of reports of direct transmission of avian influenza viruses to humans underscores the need for control strategies to prevent an influenza pandemic. Vaccination is the key strategy to prevent severe illness and death from pandemic influenza. Despite long-term experience with vaccines against human influenza viruses, researchers face several additional challenges in developing human vaccines against avian influenza viruses. In this Review, we discuss the features of avian influenza viruses, the gaps in our understanding of infections caused by these viruses in humans and of the immune response to them that distinguishes them from human influenza viruses, and the current status of vaccine development.     

Lack of evidence for vertical transmission of Campylobacter spp. in chickens

Campylobacter jejuni is a major cause of bacterial food-borne infection in the industrial world. There is evidence that C. jejuni is present in eggs and hatchery fluff, opening the possibility for vertical transmission from hens to progeny. Poultry operations in Iceland provide an excellent opportunity to study this possibility, since breeding flocks are established solely from eggs imported from grandparent flocks in Sweden. This leaves limited opportunity for grandparents and their progeny to share isolates through horizontal transmission. While Campylobacter was not detected in all grandparent flocks, 13 of the 16 egg import lots consisted of eggs gathered from one or more Campylobacter-positive grandparent flocks. No evidence of Campylobacter was found by PCR in any of the 10 relevant quarantine hatchery fluff samples examined, and no Campylobacter was isolated from the parent birds through 8 weeks, while they were still in quarantine rearing facilities. After the birds were moved to less biosecure rearing facilities, Campylobacter was isolated, and 29 alleles were observed among the 224 isolates studied. While three alleles were found in both Sweden and Iceland, in no case was the same allele found both in a particular grandparent flock and in its progeny. We could find no evidence for vertical transmission of Campylobacter to the approximately 60,000 progeny parent breeders that were hatched from eggs coming from Campylobacter-positive grandparent flocks. If vertical transmission is occurring, it is not a significant source for the contamination of chicken flocks with Campylobacter spp.     

Generation of Influenza Virus from Avian Cells Infected by Salmonella Carrying the Viral Genome

Domestic poultry serve as intermediates for transmission of influenza A virus from the wild aquatic bird reservoir to humans, resulting in influenza outbreaks in poultry and potential epidemics/pandemics among human beings. To combat emerging avian influenza virus, an inexpensive, heat-stable, and orally administered influenza vaccine would be useful to vaccinate large commercial poultry flocks and even migratory birds. Our hypothesized vaccine is a recombinant attenuated bacterial strain able to mediate production of attenuated influenza virus in vivo to induce protective immunity against influenza. Here we report the feasibility and technical limitations toward such an ideal vaccine based on our exploratory study. Five 8-unit plasmids carrying a chloramphenicol resistance gene or free of an antibiotic resistance marker were constructed. Influenza virus was successfully generated in avian cells transfected by each of the plasmids. The Salmonella carrier was engineered to allow stable maintenance and conditional release of the 8-unit plasmid into the avian cells for recovery of influenza virus. Influenza A virus up to 10⁷ 50% tissue culture infective doses (TCID₅₀)/ml were recovered from 11 out of 26 co-cultures of chicken embryonic fibroblasts (CEF) and Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells upon infection by the recombinant Salmonella carrying the 8-unit plasmid. Our data prove that a bacterial carrier can mediate generation of influenza virus by delivering its DNA cargoes into permissive host cells. Although we have made progress in developing this Salmonella influenza virus vaccine delivery system, further improvements are necessary to achieve efficient virus production, especially in vivo.     

A Cross-Sectional Study of Avian Influenza in One District of Guangzhou, 2013

Since Feb, 2013, more than 100 human beings had been infected with novel H7N9 avian influenza virus. As of May 2013, several H7N9 viruses had been found in retail live bird markets (LBMs) in Guangdong province of southern China where several human cases were confirmed later. However, the real avian influenza virus infection status especially H7N9 in Guangzhou remains unclear. Therefore, a cross-sectional study of avian influenza in commercial poultry farms, the wholesale LBM and retail LBMs in one district of Guangzhou was conducted from October to November, 2013. A total of 1505 cloacal and environmental samples from 52 commercial poultry farms, 1 wholesale LBM and 18 retail LBMs were collected and detected using real-time RT-PCR for type A, H7, H7N9 and H9 subtype avian influenza virus, respectively. Of all the flocks randomly sampled, 6 farms, 12 vendors of the wholesale LBM and 18 retail LBMs were type A avian influenza virus positive with 0, 3 and 11 positive for H9, respectively. The pooled prevalence and individual prevalence of type A avian influenza virus were 33.9% and 7.9% which for H9 subtype was 7.6% and 1.6%, respectively. None was H7 and H7N9 subtype virus positive. Different prevalence and prevalence ratio were found in different poultry species with partridges having the highest prevalence for both type A and H9 subtype avian influenza virus. Our results suggest that LBM may have a higher risk for sustaining and transmission of avian influenza virus than commercial poultry farms. The present study also indicates that different species may play different roles in the evolution and transmission of avian influenza virus. Therefore, risk-based surveillance and management measures should be conducted in future in this area.     

Interrupting malaria transmission: quantifying the impact of interventions in regions of low to moderate transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission.     

Modelling response strategies for controlling gonorrhoea outbreaks in men who have sex with men in Australia

The ability to treat gonorrhoea with current first-line drugs is threatened by the global spread of extensively drug resistant (XDR) Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) strains. In Australia, urban transmission is high among men who have sex with men (MSM) and importation of an XDR NG strain in this population could result in an epidemic that would be difficult and costly to control. An individual-based, anatomical site-specific mathematical model of NG transmission among Australian MSM was developed and used to evaluate the potential for elimination of an imported NG strain under a range of case-based and population-based test-and-treat strategies. When initiated upon detection of the imported strain, these strategies enhance the probability of elimination and reduce the outbreak size compared with current practice (current testing levels and no contact tracing). The most effective strategies combine testing targeted at regular and casual partners with increased rates of population testing. However, even with the most effective strategies, outbreaks can persist for up to 2 years post-detection. Our simulations suggest that local elimination of imported NG strains can be achieved with high probability using combined case-based and population-based test-and-treat strategies. These strategies may be an effective means of preserving current treatments in the event of wider XDR NG emergence.     

Biosecurity-based interventions and strategies to reduce Campylobacter spp. on poultry farms

The prevention and control of Campylobacter colonization of poultry flocks are important public health strategies for the control of human campylobacteriosis. A critical review of the literature on interventions to control Campylobacter in poultry on farms was undertaken using a systematic approach. Although the focus of the review was on aspects appropriate to the United Kingdom poultry industry, the research reviewed was gathered from worldwide literature. Multiple electronic databases were employed to search the literature, in any language, from 1980 to September 2008. A primary set of 4,316 references was identified and scanned, using specific agreed-upon criteria, to select relevant references related to biosecurity-based interventions. The final library comprised 173 references. Identification of the sources of Campylobacter in poultry flocks was required to inform the development of targeted interventions to disrupt transmission routes. The approach used generally involved risk factor-based surveys related to culture-positive or -negative flocks, usually combined with a structured questionnaire. In addition, some studies, either in combination or independently, undertook intervention trials. Many of these studies were compromised by poor design, sampling, and statistical analysis. The evidence for each potential source and route of transmission on the poultry farm was reviewed critically, and the options for intervention were considered. The review concluded that, in most instances, biosecurity on conventional broiler farms can be enhanced and this should contribute to the reduction of flock colonization. However, complementary, non-biosecurity-based approaches will also be required in the future to maximize the reduction of Campylobacter-positive flocks at the farm level.     

Study on the epidemiology and control of Campylobacter jejuni in poultry broiler flocks.

Broiler flocks are frequently infected with Campylobacter jejuni. The origin of the infection is still unclear. The question of whether colonization of flocks results from transmission of C. jejuni from breeder flocks to progeny (vertical transmission) or from environmental sources (horizontal transmission) remains to be answered. Therefore, in this study samples were taken from successive broiler flocks in two broiler houses (house A on farm A and house B1 on farm B) as well as from the environment of the houses. All C. jejuni isolates were typed by using the Penner serotyping system, and part of the isolates from farm B were typed by using a randomly amplified polymorphic DNA-typing system. In poultry house A, C. jejuni was isolated from the first flock but not from subsequent flocks. In poultry house B1, C. jejuni strains of the same Penner serotypes and exhibiting identical DNA profiles were isolated from successive flocks. Infection of the flocks from a common source via horizontal pathways is suspected, while a vertical route of infection is not likely to exist. Application of measures to control horizontal transmission of C. jejuni on farm B was successful.     

Study on the epidemiology and control of Campylobacter jejuni in poultry broiler flocks.

Broiler flocks are frequently infected with Campylobacter jejuni. The origin of the infection is still unclear. The question of whether colonization of flocks results from transmission of C. jejuni from breeder flocks to progeny (vertical transmission) or from environmental sources (horizontal transmission) remains to be answered. Therefore, in this study samples were taken from successive broiler flocks in two broiler houses (house A on farm A and house B1 on farm B) as well as from the environment of the houses. All C. jejuni isolates were typed by using the Penner serotyping system, and part of the isolates from farm B were typed by using a randomly amplified polymorphic DNA-typing system. In poultry house A, C. jejuni was isolated from the first flock but not from subsequent flocks. In poultry house B1, C. jejuni strains of the same Penner serotypes and exhibiting identical DNA profiles were isolated from successive flocks. Infection of the flocks from a common source via horizontal pathways is suspected, while a vertical route of infection is not likely to exist. Application of measures to control horizontal transmission of C. jejuni on farm B was successful.