Climate change and animals in Saudi Arabia

Global warming is occurring at an alarming rate and predictions are that air temperature (T_a) will continue to increase during this century. Increases in T_a as a result of unabated production of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere pose a threat to the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations worldwide. Although all the animals worldwide will likely be affected by global warming, diurnal animals in the deserts will be particularly threatened in the future because T_as are already high, and animals have limited access to water. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will experience a 3–5 °C in T_a over the next century. For predicting the consequences of global warming for animals, it is important to understand how individual species will respond to higher air temperatures. We think that populations will not have sufficient time to make evolutionary adjustments to higher T_a, and therefore they will be forced to alter their distribution patterns, or make phenotypic adjustments in their ability to cope with high T_a. This report examines how increases in T_a might affect body temperature (T_b) in the animals of arid regions. We chose three taxonomic groups, mammals, birds, and reptiles (Arabian oryx, Arabian spiny-tailed lizard, vultures, and hoopoe larks) from Saudi Arabia, an area in which T_a often reaches 45 °C during midday in summer. When T_a exceeds T_b, animals must resort to behavioral and physiological methods to control their T_b; failure to do so results in death. The observations of this study show that in many cases T_b is already close to the upper lethal limit of around 47° C in these species and therefore allowing their T_b to increase as T_a increases are not an option. We conclude that global warming will have a detrimental impact on a wide range of desert animals, but in reality we know little about the ability of most animals to cope with change in T_a. The data presented should serve as base-line information on T_b of animals in the Kingdom for future scientists in Saudi Arabia as they explore the impact of global warming on animal species.     

Quantifying torpor in small mammals non-invasively using infrared thermocouples

Measurements of torpor use are pivotal for many research areas concerning the thermal biology of endotherms. Here, I used infrared thermocouples to non-invasively examine torpor patterns in the small marsupial fat-tailed dunnart (Sminthopsis crassicaudata). Sensors were installed inside the nesting chambers to continuously monitor fur temperature in undisturbed animals. Firstly, to verify the measurements, fur temperature was monitored simultaneously with body temperature using internal radio transmitters (n=6). Secondly, I conducted a food restriction study to demonstrate the reliability of the method within a physiological experiment (n=8). Based on the correspondence of simultaneously measured fur and body temperature during torpor bouts, I was able to confirm that infrared thermocouples provide reliable temporal information on torpor patterns. Furthermore, torpor use was successfully monitored over a 20-day food restriction study. The method can easily be adapted to suit other small mammal or bird species and presents a useful, inexpensive approach for examining torpor patterns remotely and non-invasively in the laboratory.     

Body temperature variation of South African antelopes in two climatically contrasting environments

To understand the adaptive capacity of a species in response to rapid habitat destruction and climate change, we investigated variation in body temperature (T_b) of three species of antelope, namely eland, blue wildebeest and impala, using abdominally-implanted temperature data loggers. The study was conducted at two climatically contrasting environments in South Africa, one with a less seasonal and mild winter (Mapungubwe National Park) and the other with a more seasonal, long and cold winter (Asante Sana Game Reserve). Since the habitat with long and cold winters would be suboptimal for these African antelopes, which evolved in less seasonal and hot environments, antelopes in Asante Sana were expected to exhibit a larger amplitude in T_b and a lower minimum body temperature (Min T_b) during winter to reduce T_b and the ambient temperature (T_b−T_a) gradient to save energy. In both eland and impala, 24-h body temperature amplitude did not differ between the study sites, regardless of season. Conversely, wildebeest in Mapungubwe showed a higher variability in the 24-h amplitude of body temperature and also a lower Min T_b during winter and spring than the wildebeest in Asante Sana. This variation in T_b among Mapungubwe wildebeest was influenced by both the amplitude of ambient temperature (positive) and cumulative rainfall (negative), which was not the case for wildebeest in Asante Sana. We propose that the low Min T_b of wildebeest in Mapungubwe was the result of nutritional stress during winter and spring; an evident response even during a year of average rainfall. Therefore, these wildebeest apparently live in a physiologically stressful environment. With the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of drought periods in southern Africa, wildebeest and other grazers, will likely experience greater nutritional stress in the future.     

A time series analysis of the relationship of ambient temperature and common bacterial enteric infections in two Canadian provinces

The incidence of enteric infections in the Canadian population varies seasonally, and may be expected to be change in response to global climate changes. To better understand any potential impact of warmer temperature on enteric infections in Canada, we investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and weekly reports of confirmed cases of three pathogens in Canada: Salmonella, pathogenic Escherichia coli and Campylobacter, between 1992 and 2000 in two Canadian provinces. We used generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) to estimate the effect of seasonal adjustments on the estimated models. We found a strong non-linear association between ambient temperature and the occurrence of all three enteric pathogens in Alberta, Canada, and of Campylobacter in Newfoundland-Labrador. Threshold models were used to quantify the relationship of disease and temperature with thresholds chosen from 0 to −10°C depending on the pathogen modeled. For Alberta, the log relative risk of Salmonella weekly case counts increased by 1.2%, Campylobacter weekly case counts increased by 2.2%, and E. coli weekly case counts increased by 6.0% for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature. For Newfoundland-Labrador the log relative risk increased by 4.5% for Campylobacter for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature.     

SEASONALITY OF PNEUMONIA ADMISSIONS AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH CLIMATE: AN EIGHT-YEAR NATIONWIDE POPULATION-BASED STUDY

The aim of the study was to examine seasonal variability in monthly admissions for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Taiwan. Our study sample comprised 477,541 pneumonia patients in Taiwan between 1998 and 2005, inclusive. Results showed a fairly consistent seasonal pattern of pneumonia admissions, regardless of sex and age, and for the groups combined. Seasonal trends showed a peak in hospitalizations from January through April, followed by a sharp decrease in May and a trough from August through October. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) test found significant seasonality for all age and sex groups and for the whole sample (all p?<?0.001). After adjusting for seasonality, month, and trends, the ARIMA regression models revealed that the monthly pneumonia admissions rate was significantly associated with ambient temperature, for the total sample, for female groups, and for the 65–74 and?≥75 age groups (all p?<?0.01). A 1°C decrease in ambient temperature was associated with roughly a 0.03 increase in monthly pneumonia admissions rate (per 10,000 people) for the entire sample. We conclude the monthly pneumonia admissions rate was significantly associated with seasonality, and was higher in periods with low ambient temperatures. (Author correspondence: henry11111@tmu.edu.tw)     

Validation of an individualised model of human thermoregulation for predicting responses to cold air

Most computer models of human thermoregulation are population based. Here, we individualised the Fiala model [Fiala et al. (2001) Int J Biometeorol 45:143–159] with respect to anthropometrics, body fat, and metabolic rate. The predictions of the adapted multisegmental thermoregulatory model were compared with measured skin temperatures of individuals. Data from two experiments, in which reclining subjects were suddenly exposed to mild to moderate cold environmental conditions, were used to study the effect on dynamic skin temperature responses. Body fat was measured by the three-compartment method combining underwater weighing and deuterium dilution. Metabolic rate was determined by indirect calorimetry. In experiment 1, the bias (mean difference) between predicted and measured mean skin temperature decreased from 1.8°C to −0.15°C during cold exposure. The standard deviation of the mean difference remained of the same magnitude (from 0.7°C to 0.9°C). In experiment 2 the bias of the skin temperature changed from 2.0±1.09°C using the standard model to 1.3±0.93°C using individual characteristics in the model. The inclusion of individual characteristics thus improved the predictions for an individual and led to a significantly smaller systematic error. However, a large part of the discrepancies in individual response to cold remained unexplained. Possible further improvements to the model accomplished by inclusion of more subject characteristics (i.e. body fat distribution, body shape) and model refinements on the level of (skin) blood perfusion, and control functions, are discussed.     

环境温度对爪鲵体温及能量代谢的影响

应用封闭式小动物能量代谢仪测定了爪鲵在6℃、10℃、15℃、20℃和25℃环境条件下的体温和能量代谢以及在极端环境中的耐受性,探讨环境温度对爪鲵体温及能量代谢的影响.结果表明:爪鲵体温与环境温度呈正相关,其直线回归方程为:Tb=0.6966 0.9518Ta,相关非常显著.爪鲵对极端环境温度的耐受力较弱,在32℃-35℃高温和-2℃到-6℃低温 环境中的致死体温(TbL50)分别为27.7℃±0.9165℃和2.85℃±0.1539℃.在环 境温度为6℃-25℃的范围内,爪鲵的能量代谢与环境温度呈指数回归相关,指数方程为MR=0 .7495e0.0408x,相关显著.其代谢水平随环境温度的升高而升高,不同于内热源动物的代谢特征,爪鲵的体温调节和能量代谢显示出外热源动物的特点     

红瘰疣螈的体温调节

红瘰疣螈(Tylototriton shanjing)为我国Ⅱ级重点保护野生动物。本实验测定了在不同环境温度条件下红瘰疣螈体温及代谢率变化。结果表明,在10～35℃环境温度范围内红瘰疣螈体温(Tb)与环境温度(Ta)呈正相关,其直线回归方程为:Tb=3.99+0.86Ta(R2=0.99,P0.01);其代谢率(MR)在15～30℃的环境温度范围内随环境温度的升高而升高,在35℃时,其代谢率由于体温过高而急剧降低;在15～35℃之间的6个温度条件下雄性代谢率的回归方程为:MR1=0.374 1-0.355 1Ta+0.113 9T2a-0.010 5T3a(R2=0.47,P0.01,df1=3,df2=46);雌性代谢率的回归方程为:MR2=0.478 8-0.420 3Ta+0.130 4T2a-0.011 8T3a(R2=0.40,P0.01,df1=3,df2=46)。不同于内热源动物的代谢特征,红瘰疣螈的体温调节表现出外热源动物的特点:其体温受环境影响较大,体温生理调节能力较弱。     

Thermal effect of blood feeding in the telmophagous fly Glossina morsitans morsitans

During feeding on warm-blooded hosts, haematophagous insects are exposed to thermal stress due to the ingestion of a meal which temperature may highly exceed their own body temperature. In order to avoid overheating and its subsequent deleterious effects, these insects respond by setting up molecular protective mechanisms such as heat shock proteins synthesis or by using thermoregulative strategies. Moreover, the duration of contact with the host depends on the way of feeding displayed by the different species (either telmophagous or solenophagous) and thus also impacts their exposure to heat. Solenophagous insects feed directly on blood vessels and are relatively slow feeders while telmophagous insects by lacerating capillaries, facilitate their access to blood and thus feed more quickly. The aim of this work was to investigate to what extent strictly telmophagous insects such as tsetse flies are exposed to thermal stress during feeding and consequently to evaluate the impact of the feeding strategy on the exposition to overheating in haematophagous insects in general. Real time thermographic analysis during feeding revealed that the flies’ body significantly heat up quite homogeneously. At the end of feeding, however, a marked regional heterothermy occurs as a consequence of the alary muscles warm up that precedes take-off. Feeding strategies, either solenophagy or telmophagy, thus appear to have a great impact on both exposition to predation risks and to thermal stress.     

Fuel deposition of three passerine bird species along the migration route

The rate at which migrant birds replenish their energy stores at intermittent stopovers largely determines overall migration speed, the manner in which migration proceeds and success of migration. In this study, data on the fuel deposition rate (FDR) of three long-distance migrants from 17 ringing sites along their autumn migration route were used to examine: (1) effects of endogenous factors on FDR, and (2) how relationships between exogenous factors and FDR affect the organisation of migration. We developed a model to estimate FDR from retrapped birds which takes into account time of day and various other factors which might influence FDR. The two endogenous factors, moult and current energy stores, generally reduced FDR. This may result in lower departure energy loads and more stopovers than expected from optimal migration theory. Differences between species with respect to seasonal, year-to-year and geographical patterns of FDR could be related to differences in availability and predictability of food resources, and help to explain differences in the organisation of migration. A low FDR in northern and central Europe could be related to low, but predictable, food resources and an early departure during moult of the reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus); FDRs varying between years were related to large spatial and year-to-year variation in the density of the main prey of the sedge warbler (Acrocephalus schoenobaenus); and a high FDR in the garden warbler (Sylvia borin) was related to abundant food resources, due to a switch from a purely invertebrate diet to a mixed diet including fruits which are abundant over large areas of Europe and north Africa. This study demonstrated that the organisation of migration is the outcome of a complex interplay of the seasonal timing of moult, food availability and predictability and a seasonal switch in diet, and can be modified by individual birds in response to a limited amount of time in which to migrate. Received: 26 April 1999 / Accepted: 24 September 1999     

Patterns and dynamics of rest-phase hypothermia in wild and captive blue tits during winter

We evaluated biotic and abiotic predictors of rest-phase hypothermia in wintering blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and also assessed how food availability influences nightly thermoregulation. On any given night, captive blue tits (with unrestricted access to food) remained largely homeothermic, whereas free-ranging birds decreased their body temperature (T _b) by about 5°C. This was not an effect of increased stress in the aviary as we found no difference in circulating corticosterone between groups. Nocturnal T _b in free-ranging birds varied with ambient temperature, date and time. Conversely, T _b in captive birds could not be explained by climatic or temporal factors, but differed slightly between the sexes. We argue that the degree of hypothermia is controlled predominantly by birds’ ability to obtain sufficient energy reserves during the day. However, environmental factors became increasingly important for thermoregulation when resources were limited. Moreover, as birds did not enter hypothermia in captivity when food was abundant, we suggest that this strategy has associated costs and hence is avoided whenever resource levels permit.     

Sensitivity of the carbon footprint of New Zealand milk to greenhouse gas metrics

Milk production is responsible for emitting a range of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄). In Life Cycle Assessments (LCA), the Global Warming Potential with a time horizon of 100 years (GWP100) is used almost universally to aggregate emissions of individual gases into so-called CO₂-equivalent emissions that are used to calculate the overall carbon footprint of milk production. However, there is growing awareness that, depending on the purpose of the LCA, metrics other than GWP100 could be justified and some would give a very different weighting for the short-lived gas CH₄ relative to the long-lived gases CO₂ and N₂O when calculating the carbon footprint. Pastoral dairy production systems at different levels of intensification differ in the balance of short- and long-lived GHGs associated with on- and off-farm emissions. Differences in the carbon footprint of different production systems could therefore be highly sensitive to the choice of GHG metric. Here we explore the extent to which alternative GHG metric choices would alter the carbon footprint of New Zealand milk production at different levels of intensification at national, regional and individual farm scales and compared to the carbon footprint of milk of selected European countries. We find that the ranking of different production systems and individual farms in terms of their carbon footprint is relatively robust against the choice of GHG metric, despite significant differences in their utilisation of pastures versus supplementary off-farm feed, fertiliser use and energy consumption at various stages of farm operations. However, there are instances where alternative GHG metric choices would fundamentally change the conclusions of LCA of different production systems, including whether a move towards higher or lower input systems would increase or decrease the average carbon footprint of milk production in New Zealand. Greater transparency about the implications of alternative GHG metrics for LCA, and the often inadvertent and implicit value judgements embedded in these metrics, would help ensure that policy decisions and consumer choices based on LCA indeed deliver the climate outcomes intended by end-users.     

Climate change and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales

In recent years there have been several spells of high temperatures providing analogues for the conditions that might become more common as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Statistical models were developed of the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures and these were then used to provide estimates of the possible effects of future warmer summers. Routinely collected data on the number of reported cases of food poisoning were analysed for the years 1982–1991. Regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures of the same and the previous month. Published scenarios for future temperatures were applied to these statistical models to provide estimates of the possible impacts of warmer conditions. The monthly incidence of food poisoning was found to be significantly associated with the temperature of the same and of the previous month with the latter having the stronger effect. Using published data on the relationship between reported and actual numbers of cases of food poisoning, it is estimated that annually there might be an additional 179 000 cases of food poisoning by the year 2050 as a result of climate change. The observed relationship with the same month's temperature underlines the need for improvements in storage, preparation and hygiene close to the point of consumption. However, there was a much stronger relationship with the temperature of the previous month, indicating the importance of conditions earlier in the food production process. Improvements in areas such as animal husbandry and slaughtering may also be necessary to avoid the adverse effects of a warmer climate.     

Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T_b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T_b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage‐specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T_b, to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.     

Climate change, conservation and management: an assessment of the peer-reviewed scientific journal literature

Recent reviews of the conservation literature indicate that significant biases exist in the published literature regarding the regions, ecosystems and species that have been examined by researchers. Despite the global threat of climatic change, similar biases may be occurring within the sub-discipline of climate-change ecology. Here we hope to foster critical thought and discussion by considering the directions taken by conservation researchers when addressing climate change. To form a quantitative basis for our perspective, we assessed 248 papers from the climate change literature that considered the conservation management of biodiversity and ecosystems. We found that roughly half of the studies considered climate change in isolation from other threatening processes. We also found that the majority of surveyed scientific publications were conducted in the temperate forests of Europe and North America. Regions such as Latin America that are rich in biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climate change were not well represented. We caution that such biases in research effort may be distracting our attention away from vulnerable regions, ecosystems and species. Specifically we suggest that the under-representation of research from regions low in adaptive capacity and rich in biodiversity requires international collaboration by those experienced in climate-change research, with researchers from less wealthy nations who are familiar with local issues, ecosystems and species. Furthermore, we caution that the propensity of ecologists to work in essentially unmodified ecosystems may fundamentally hamper our ability to make useful recommendations in a world that is experiencing significant global change.     

A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland

Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.     

气候变化对鸟类影响：长期研究的意义

过去一个多世纪全球气候发生了明显变化,地球表面温度正在逐渐变暖。已有大量研究结果表明,鸟类已经在种群动态变化、生活史特性以及地理分布范围等方面对全球气候变化作出了相应的反应。根据全球范围内气候变化对鸟类影响的研究资料,尤其是北美和欧洲的一些长期研究项目的成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类分布范围、物候、繁殖和种群动态变化等方面的可能影响。这些长期研究项目为探讨气候变化在个体和种群的水平上如何长时间地影响鸟类提供了独特的机会,对未来中国鸟类学研究也会有所裨益。