Moving forward in global‐change ecology: capitalizing on natural variability

Natural resources managers are being asked to follow practices that accommodate for the impact of climate change on the ecosystems they manage, while global‐ecosystems modelers aim to forecast future responses under different climate scenarios. However, the lack of scientific knowledge about short‐term ecosystem responses to climate change has made it difficult to define set conservation practices or to realistically inform ecosystem models. Until recently, the main goal for ecologists was to study the composition and structure of communities and their implications for ecosystem function, but due to the probable magnitude and irreversibility of climate‐change effects (species extinctions and loss of ecosystem function), a shorter term focus on responses of ecosystems to climate change is needed. We highlight several underutilized approaches for studying the ecological consequences of climate change that capitalize on the natural variability of the climate system at different temporal and spatial scales. For example, studying organismal responses to extreme climatic events can inform about the resilience of populations to global warming and contribute to the assessment of local extinctions. Translocation experiments and gene expression are particular useful to quantitate a species' acclimation potential to global warming. And studies along environmental gradients can guide habitat restoration and protection programs by identifying vulnerable species and sites. These approaches identify the processes and mechanisms underlying species acclimation to changing conditions, combine different analytical approaches, and can be used to improve forecasts of the short‐term impacts of climate change and thus inform conservation practices and ecosystem models in a meaningful way.     

Step back from the forest and step up to the Bonn Challenge: how a broad ecological perspective can promote successful landscape restoration

We currently face both an extinction and a biome crisis embedded in a changing climate. Many biodiverse ecosystems are being lost at far higher rates than they are being protected or ecologically restored. At the same time, natural climate solutions offer opportunities to restore biodiversity while mitigating climate change. The Bonn Challenge is a U.N. programme to restore biodiversity and mitigate climate change through restoration of the world's degraded landscapes. It provides an unprecedented chance for ecological restoration to become a linchpin tool for addressing many environmental issues. Unfortunately, the Forest and Landscape Restoration programme that underpins the Bonn Challenge, as its name suggests, remains focused on trees and forests, despite rising evidence that many non‐forest ecosystems also offer strong restoration potential for biodiversity and climate mitigation. We see a need for restoration to step back to be more inclusive of different ecosystem types and to step up to provide integrated scientific knowledge to inform large‐scale restoration. Stepping back and up will require assessments of where to restore what species, with recognition that in many landscapes multiple habitat types should be restored. In the process, trade‐offs in the delivery of different ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, biodiversity, water, albedo, livestock forage) should be clearly addressed. We recommend that biodiversity safeguards be included in policy and implemented in practice, to avoid undermining the biophysical relationships that provide ecosystem resilience to climate change. For ecological restoration to contribute to international policy goals will require integrated large‐scale science that works across biome boundaries.     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

Restoring ecosystem health and integrity during a human population increase to ten billion

Human population growth and the improving condition of human populations in developing countries affect ecological health and integrity. Agricultural development co-opts increasing amounts of global primary production, degrading lands, and reducing species richness. The development of human populations and associated increasing demands for energy assures disposal for increasing amounts of waste, further damaging local ecosystems. Global climate change resulting from diffuse pollutants will affect even the most pristine ecosystems. The human challenge is to maintain ecological integrity and restore ecosystems in the face of accelerating development. The present level of ecosystem protection in not sufficient. Only integrated means of assessing recovery potential and acting to restore ecological productivity can assure continued availability of ecosystem services ranging from free production of food and fiber by plants and animals to final waste assimilation. Restoring ecosystems presumes that species sources are available and that adequate management is in place to monitor and manage recovery. Today, even in the most advanced societies, management is fragmented by non-integrative thinking and the failure to realize that the human scale of political decision-making and management is inappropriate to assure ecosystem restoration. Only by adopting radically new ideas integrating management and ecosystem science can ecological integrity be maintained.     

Impact of climatic variability on parameters used in typology and ecological quality assessment of surface waters—implications on the Water Framework Directive

In most cases the negative impacts of climate change to aquatic ecosystems cannot be mitigated by measures in the river basin management. Ignoring climate change by the Water Framework Directive may have strong implications for the typology and quality assessment systems used for water bodies. As a result of climate change, water bodies, especially those located near the type boundaries may change their type. Compared to typology characteristics, water quality parameters are even more labile and may be easily affected by climate change. The paper exemplifies that the anticipated deterioration of water quality within the time frame relevant for WFD implementation may be large enough to endanger the fulfillment of the set water quality objectives. The review of the river basin characterization every six years, as required by the WFD, might also include re-evaluation of reference conditions according to the changes observed at pristine reference sites. As a consequence, the restoration targets (i.e., the good ecological status) would also need to be evaluated periodically.     

Assisted migration within species range ignores biotic interactions and lacks evidence

In the context of climate change, many plant species may have problems adapting or dispersing rapidly enough to keep pace with changing environmental conditions. Given these potential problems, some experts argue against using local plant ecotypes for ecosystem restoration. Instead, they propose to use foreign ecotypes that are adapted to the predicted climate in an approach called assisted migration within species range or predictive provenancing. I argue that such actions may cause a mismatch in biotic interactions and have negative effects on other organisms. As such, assisted migration should only be considered in cases when the local ecotypes would fail to ensure ecosystem services. In fact, there is little experimental evidence on the assisted migration approach so far, and what little there is does not seem to support its use. Even in altered climates, local ecotypes mostly performed equally well or better than foreign ones selected for their adaptations to these climates. The reason is that even if adaptation to climate plays a role, this factor may be overridden by other drivers of local adaptation, such as soil or biotic interactions. Despite assisted migration being a popular concept that is repeatedly commended in scientific literature and propagated among practitioners, it should not be considered a universal tool to improve restoration outcomes during climate change. Given the lack of hard experimental data, I call for large‐scale multispecies experimental studies that will provide the necessary evidence to derive general guidelines and recommendations for management of ecosystems during climate change.     

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change

Past abrupt ‘regime shifts’ have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large‐scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high‐latitude regions. However, there is very little high‐resolution modelling of smaller‐scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate‐driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high‐resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO₂ combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non‐linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non‐linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374–1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%–1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.     

Turquoise is the new green: Restoring and enhancing riparian function in the Anthropocene

Riparian ecosystems are hotspots for ecological restoration globally because of the disproportionately high value and diversity of the ecological functions and services which they support and their high level of vulnerability to anthropogenic pressures, including climate change. Degraded riparian ecosystems are associated with many serious anthropogenic problems including increased river bank erosion, water quality decline, increased flood risk and biodiversity loss. Conventional approaches to riparian restoration, however, are frequently too narrow in focus – spatially, temporally, ecologically and socially – to adequately or equitably address the goals to which they aspire. Climate change, along with the intensification of other human pressures, means that static, historically oriented restoration objectives focused solely on prior ecological composition and structure are unlikely to be defensible, achievable or appropriate in the Anthropocene. Conversely, open‐ended restoration strategies lacking clear objectives and targets entail substantial risks such as significant biodiversity losses, especially of native species. A functional approach to planning and prioritising riparian restoration interventions offers an intermediate alternative that is still framed by measurable targets but allows for greater consideration of broader temporal, spatial and cultural influences. Here, we provide an overview of major riparian functions across multiple scales and identify key drivers of, and threats to, these. We also discuss practical approaches to restoring and promoting riparian functions and highlight some key concerns for the development of policy and management of robust riparian restoration in the Anthropocene.     

基于生态系统演变机理的生态系统脆弱性、适应性与突变理论

随着气候变化影响广度与深度的增加,生态系统脆弱性、适应性与突变理论逐渐被广泛应用到生态学研究领域中,探讨和评估各类生态系统对气候变化的敏感性、脆弱性和适应性,可谋求更好的方式来应对气候变化对区域生态系统带来的深远影响,服务于国家生态系统可持续管理及生态安全建设.虽然相关研究已获取许多进展,区分了气候敏感区和某些生态系统...     

The future of South East Asian rainforests in a changing landscape and climate

With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue.     

气候变化对“山水林田湖草”重大生态工程的影响

“山水林田湖草”重大生态保护与修复工程是中国对复杂生态环境治理的重要探索。鉴于目前大多数重大生态工程未系统地考虑气候变化对重大生态工程的影响问题,针对气候变化对高寒草地、北方林区以及风沙源区生态的影响,以实施了多年的三江源生态保护工程、三北防护林工程和京津风沙源治理工程为重点,分析了重大生态工程对全球气候变化的响应,解构了重大生态工程与气候的反馈关系和影响程度,指出了中国“山水林田湖草”重大生态工程实施过程中可能存在的问题,并给出了应对建议。结果表明：（1）气候变化对重大生态工程影响研究不足,尤其是涉及区域生态系统结构、功能、生物多样性与脆弱性等方面以及气候变化在工程实施效果贡献率的研究。（2）缺乏有效区分气候变化和工程实施效果的评估方法。目前能够定量识别气候变化对生态系统恢复的试验和方法比较少见,且缺乏对气候变化未来风险预估,导致制订的措施不能有效适应气候变化从而达到生态效益的最大化。所以在今后设计和实施“山水林田湖草”重大生态保护与修复工程时,要充分考虑自然规律、地理地带性差异和气候因素对生态系统的影响,并且加强建设生态综合监测和工程评价体系,根据未来不同的气候变化情景制订不同的措施,并依据气候动态预估来适当调整措施,使得生态工程能发挥出最大效益,以保证修复工程的系统性、区域性和整体性。     

Bioenergy crops,biodiversity and ecosystem services in temperate agricultural landscapes—A review of synergies and trade-offs

The Paris agreement on climate change requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. One important mitigation strategy, at least in the intermediate future, is the substitution of fossil fuels with bioenergy. However, using agriculture- and forest-derived biomass for energy has sparked controversy regarding both the climate mitigation potential and conflicts with biodiversity conservation. The urgency of the climate crisis calls for using forests for carbon sequestration and storage rather than for bioenergy, making agricultural biomass an attractive alternative for fossil energy substitution. However, this calls for comprehensive assessments of its sustainability in terms of consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this review, we provide a first holistic overview of the impacts on ecosystems of land-use changes from bioenergy crop production in temperate climates, by synthesizing results on both biodiversity and ecosystem service impacts. We found that bioenergy-related land-use changes can have both positive and negative effects on ecosystems, with original land use, bioenergy crop type and scale of bioenergy production being important moderators of impacts. Despite the risk of opportunity cost for food production, perennial crop cultivation on arable land had the lowest occurrence of negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Growing biomass for bioenergy on surplus land has been suggested as a way to alleviate competition with food production and biodiversity conservation, but our results demonstrate that utilizing marginal or abandoned land for bioenergy crop production cannot fully resolve these trade-offs. Furthermore, there is a lack of empirical studies of the biodiversity value of marginal and abandoned land, limiting our understanding of the sustainability implications of biomass cultivation on surplus land. We argue that future research and policies for bioenergy production must explicitly consider biodiversity and ecosystem services in combination to avoid potential trade-offs between the two and to ensure sustainable bioenergy production.     

Macroinvertebrate conservation in river ecosystems: Challenges,restoration strategies,and integrated management approaches

River ecosystems face growing threats from human-induced stressors, resulting in habitat degradation and biodiversity loss. Crucial to these ecosystems, macroinvertebrates maintain river health and functioning. In this review, we examine the challenges confronting macroinvertebrates, explore restoration strategies and management approaches, and shed light on knowledge gaps and future research directions. Habitat degradation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species are discussed as key challenges. Various restoration strategies, such as in-stream habitat restoration, flow regime restoration, riparian zone restoration, and connectivity restoration, are evaluated for macroinvertebrate conservation. Integrated catchment management, adaptive management, community-based management, monitoring, and policy integration are highlighted as essential management approaches, and knowledge gaps in long-term monitoring, innovative restoration techniques, climate change resilience, and policy incorporation are identified as areas calling for further research. Ultimately, a proactive, adaptable, and cooperative approach to river management will ensure macroinvertebrate conservation and sustainable river ecosystems.     

Ecological restoration of rich fens in Europe and North America: from trial and error to an evidence‐based approach

Fens represent a large array of ecosystem services, including the highest biodiversity found among wetlands, hydrological services, water purification and carbon sequestration. Land‐use change and drainage has severely damaged or annihilated these services in many parts of North America and Europe; restoration plans are urgently needed at the landscape level. We review the major constraints on the restoration of rich fens and fen water bodies in agricultural areas in Europe and disturbed landscapes in North America: (i) habitat quality problems: drought, eutrophication, acidification, and toxicity, and (ii) recolonization problems: species pools, ecosystem fragmentation and connectivity, genetic variability, and invasive species; and here provide possible solutions. We discuss both positive and negative consequences of restoration measures, and their causes. The restoration of wetland ecosystem functioning and services has, for a long time, been based on a trial‐and‐error approach. By presenting research and practice on the restoration of rich fen ecosystems within agricultural areas, we demonstrate the importance of biogeochemical and ecological knowledge at different spatial scales for the management and restoration of biodiversity, water quality, carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services, especially in a changing climate. We define target processes that enable scientists, nature managers, water managers and policy makers to choose between different measures and to predict restoration prospects for different types of deteriorated fens and their starting conditions.     

Moving from autonomous to planned adaptation in the montane forests of southeastern Australia under changing fire regimes

Forest ecosystems and their associated natural, cultural and economic values are highly vulnerable to climate driven changes in fire regimes. A detailed knowledge of forest ecosystem responses to altered fire regimes is a necessary underpinning to inform options for adaptive responses under climate change, as well as for providing a basis for understanding how patterns of distribution of vegetation communities that comprise montane forest ecosystems may change in the future. Unplanned consequential adaptation of both natural and human systems, i.e. autonomous adaptation, will occur without planned intervention, with potentially negative impacts on ecosystem services. The persistence of forest stands under changing fire regimes and the maintenance of the ecosystem services that they provide pivot upon underlying response traits, such as the ability to resprout, that determine the degree to which composition, structure and function are likely to change. The integration of ecosystem dynamics into conceptual models and their use in exploring adaptation pathways provides options for policy makers and managers to move from autonomous to planned adaptation responses. Understanding where autonomous adaptation provides a benefit and where it proves potentially undesirable is essential to inform adaptation choices. Plausible scenarios of ecological change can be developed to improve an understanding of the nature and timing of interventions and their consequences, well before natural and human systems autonomously adapt in ways that may be detrimental to the long‐term provision of ecosystem services. We explore the utility of this approach using examples from temperate montane forest ecosystems of southeastern Australia.     

A triage framework for managing novel,hybrid, and designed marine ecosystems

The novel ecosystem (NE) concept has been discussed in terrestrial restoration ecology over the last 15 years but has not yet found much traction in the marine context. Against a background of unprecedented environmental change, managers of natural marine resources have portfolios full of altered systems for which restoration to a previous historical baseline may be impractical for ecological, social, or financial reasons. In these cases, the NE concept is useful for weighing options and emphasizes the risk of doing nothing by forcing questions regarding the value of novelty and how it can best be managed in the marine realm. Here, we explore how the concept fits marine ecosystems. We propose a scheme regarding how the NE concept could be used as a triage framework for use in marine environments within the context of a decision framework that explicitly considers changed ecosystems and whether restoration is the best or only option. We propose a conceptual diagram to show where marine NEs fit in the continuum of unaltered to shifted marine ecosystems. Overall, we suggest that the NE concept is of interest to marine ecologists and resource managers because it introduces a new vocabulary for considering marine systems that have been changed through human actions but have not shifted to an alternate stable state. Although it remains to be seen whether the concept of marine NEs leads to better conservation and restoration decisions, we posit that the concept may help inform management decisions in an era of unprecedented global marine change.     

A conceptual framework for urban ecological restoration and rehabilitation

Urban greenspace has gained considerable attention during the last decades because of its relevance to wildlife conservation, human welfare, and climate change adaptation. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation worldwide require the formation of new concepts of ecological restoration and rehabilitation aimed at improving ecosystem functions, services, and biodiversity conservation in cities. Although relict sites of natural and semi-natural ecosystems can be found in urban areas, environmental conditions and species composition of most urban ecosystems are highly modified, inducing the development of novel and hybrid ecosystems. A consequence of this ecological novelty is the lack of (semi-) natural reference systems available for defining restoration targets and assessing restoration success in urban areas. This hampers the implementation of ecological restoration in cities. In consideration of these challenges, we present a new conceptual framework that provides guidance and support for urban ecological restoration and rehabilitation by formulating restoration targets for different levels of ecological novelty (i.e., historic, hybrid, and novel ecosystems). To facilitate the restoration and rehabilitation of novel urban ecosystems, we recommend using established species-rich and well-functioning urban ecosystems as reference. Such urban reference systems are likely to be present in many cities. Highlighting their value in comparison to degraded ecosystems can stimulate and guide restoration initiatives. As urban restoration approaches must consider local history and site conditions, as well as citizens’ needs, it may also be advisable to focus the restoration of strongly altered urban ecosystems on selected ecosystem functions, services and/or biodiversity values. Ecosystem restoration and rehabilitation in cities can be either relatively inexpensive or costly, but even expensive measures can pay off when they effectively improve ecosystem services such as climate change mitigation or recreation. Successful re‐shaping and re-thinking of urban greenspace by involving citizens and other stakeholders will help to make our cities more sustainable in the future.     

The value and opportunity of restoring Australia's lost rock oyster reefs

Recognizing the historical loss of habitats and the value and opportunities for their recovery is essential for mobilizing habitat restoration as a solution for managing ecosystem function. Just 200 years ago, Sydney rock oysters (Saccostrea glomerata) formed extensive reef ecosystems along Australia's temperate east coast, but a century of intensive harvest and coastal change now confines S. glomerata to encrusting the hard‐intertidal surfaces of sheltered coastal waters. Despite the lack of natural reef recovery, there appears enormous potential for the restoration of intertidal S. glomerata ecosystems across Australia's east coast, with large anticipated benefits to water quality, shoreline protection, and coastal productivity. Yet, no subtidal reefs remain and the potential for subtidal restoration is a critical knowledge gap. Here, we synthesize historical, ecological, and aquaculture literature to describe a reference system for the traits of S. glomerata reefs to inform restoration targets, and outline the barriers to, and opportunities and methods for, their restoration. These reefs support extremely biodiverse and productive communities and can ameliorate the environmental stress experienced by associated communities. Rock oyster restoration, therefore, provides an ecosystem‐based strategy for assisting the adaptation of marine biodiversity to a changing climate and intensive human encroachment. Though an estimated 92% of S. glomerata ecosystems are lost, there remains great potential to restore these valuable and resilient ecosystems.     

基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价

 陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应及其脆弱性评价研究是当前全球变化领域的重要内容之一。该研究在生态系统过程模型的基础上,耦合了潜在 植被对气候变化的动态响应,模拟气候变化对潜在植被分布格局和生态系统主要功能的影响,以潜在植被的变化次数和变化方 向定义植被分布 对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,以生态系统功能特征量的年际变率及其变化趋势定义生态系统功能对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,进而对生态 系统的脆弱性进行定量评价,分析不同气候条件下我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局及其区域特点。结果表明,我国自然生态系统气候脆弱 性的总体特点为南低北高、东低西高,气候变化将会增加系统的脆弱性。采用政府间气候变化委员会排放情景特别报告国内和区域资源情景, 即IPCC-SRES-A2气候情景进行的预测模拟表明,到21世纪末我国不脆弱的生态系统比例将减少22%左右,高度脆弱和极度脆弱的生态系统所占的 比例较当前气候条件下分别减少1.3%和0.4%。气候变化对我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局影响不大。不同气候条件下,高度脆弱和极度脆 弱的自然生态系统主要分布在我国内蒙古、东北和西北等地区的生态过渡带上及荒漠-草地生态系统中。总体而言,华南及西南大部分地区的生 态系统脆弱性将随气候变化而有所增加,而华北及东北地区则有所减小。     

Regional analysis of the impacts of climate change on cheatgrass invasion shows potential risk and opportunity

Interactions between climate change and non-native invasive species may combine to increase invasion risk to native ecosystems. Changing climate creates risk as new terrain becomes climatically suitable for invasion. However, climate change may also create opportunities for ecosystem restoration on invaded lands that become climatically unsuitable for invasive species. Here, I develop a bioclimatic envelope model for cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), a non-native invasive grass in the western US, based on its invaded distribution. The bioclimatic envelope model is based on the Mahalanobis distance using the climate variables that best constrain the species' distribution. Of the precipitation and temperature variables measured, the best predictors of cheatgrass are summer, annual, and spring precipitation, followed by winter temperature. I perform a sensitivity analysis on potential cheatgrass distributions using the projections of 10 commonly used atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for 2100. The AOGCM projections for precipitation vary considerably, increasing uncertainty in the assessment of invasion risk. Decreased precipitation, particularly in the summer, causes an expansion of suitable land area by up to 45%, elevating invasion risk in parts of Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. Conversely, increased precipitation reduces habitat by as much as 70%, decreasing invasion risk. The strong influence of precipitation conditions on this species' distribution suggests that relying on temperature change alone to project future change in plant distributions may be inadequate. A sensitivity analysis provides a framework for identifying key climate variables that may limit invasion, and for assessing invasion risk and restoration opportunities with climate change.