Frequent In-Migration and Highly Focal Transmission of Dengue Viruses among Children in Kamphaeng Phet,Thailand

Revealing the patterns and determinants of the spread of dengue virus (DENV) at local scales is central to understanding the epidemiology and evolution of this major human pathogen. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the envelope (E) genes of DENV-1, -2, -3, and -4 isolates (involving 97, 23, 5, and 74 newly collected sequences, respectively) sampled from school-based cohort and village-based cluster studies in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, between 2004 and 2007. With these data, we sought to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of DENV spread within a rural population where a future vaccine efficacy trial is planned. Our analysis revealed considerable genetic diversity within the study population, with multiple lineages within each serotype circulating for various lengths of time during the study period. These results suggest that DENV is frequently introduced into both semi-urban and rural areas in Kamphaeng Phet from other populations. In contrast, the persistence of viral lineages across sampling years was observed less frequently. Analysis of phylogenetic clustering indicated that DENV transmission was highly spatially and temporally focal, and that it occurred in homes rather than at school. Overall, the strength of temporal clustering suggests that seasonal bottlenecks in local DENV populations facilitate the invasion and establishment of viruses from outside of the study area, in turn reducing the extent of lineage persistence.     

Phylogeography of Recently Emerged DENV-2 in Southern Viet Nam

Revealing the dispersal of dengue viruses (DENV) in time and space is central to understanding their epidemiology. However, the processes that shape DENV transmission patterns at the scale of local populations are not well understood, particularly the impact of such factors as human population movement and urbanization. Herein, we investigated trends in the spatial dynamics of DENV-2 transmission in the highly endemic setting of southern Viet Nam. Through a phylogeographic analysis of 168 full-length DENV-2 genome sequences obtained from hospitalized dengue cases from 10 provinces in southern Viet Nam, we reveal substantial genetic diversity in both urban and rural areas, with multiple lineages identified in individual provinces within a single season, and indicative of frequent viral migration among communities. Focusing on the recently introduced Asian I genotype, we observed particularly high rates of viral exchange between adjacent geographic areas, and between Ho Chi Minh City, the primary urban center of this region, and populations across southern Viet Nam. Within Ho Chi Minh City, patterns of DENV movement appear consistent with a gravity model of virus dispersal, with viruses traveling across a gradient of population density. Overall, our analysis suggests that Ho Chi Minh City may act as a source population for the dispersal of DENV across southern Viet Nam, and provides further evidence that urban areas of Southeast Asia play a primary role in DENV transmission. However, these data also indicate that more rural areas are also capable of maintaining virus populations and hence fueling DENV evolution over multiple seasons.     

High-resolution analysis of intrahost genetic diversity in dengue virus serotype 1 infection identifies mixed infections

Little is known about the rate at which genetic variation is generated within intrahost populations of dengue virus (DENV) and what implications this diversity has for dengue pathogenesis, disease severity, and host immunity. Previous studies of intrahost DENV variation have used a low frequency of sampling and/or experimental methods that do not fully account for errors generated through amplification and sequencing of viral RNAs. We investigated the extent and pattern of genetic diversity in sequence data in domain III (DIII) of the envelope (E) gene in serial plasma samples (n = 49) taken from 17 patients infected with DENV type 1 (DENV-1), totaling some 8,458 clones. Statistically rigorous approaches were employed to account for artifactual variants resulting from amplification and sequencing, which we suggest have played a major role in previous studies of intrahost genetic variation. Accordingly, nucleotide sequence diversities of viral populations were very low, with conservative estimates of the average levels of genetic diversity ranging from 0 to 0.0013. Despite such sequence conservation, we observed clear evidence for mixed infection, with the presence of multiple phylogenetically distinct lineages present within the same host, while the presence of stop codon mutations in some samples suggests the action of complementation. In contrast to some previous studies we observed no relationship between the extent and pattern of DENV-1 genetic diversity and disease severity, immune status, or level of viremia.     

Dengue-1 virus clade replacement in Thailand associated with enhanced mosquito transmission

Dengue viruses (DENV) are characterized by extensive genetic diversity and can be organized in multiple, genetically distinct lineages that arise and die out on a regular basis in regions where dengue is endemic. A fundamental question for understanding DENV evolution is the relative extent to which stochastic processes (genetic drift) and natural selection acting on fitness differences among lineages contribute to lineage diversity and turnover. Here, we used a set of recently collected and archived low-passage DENV-1 isolates from Thailand to examine the role of mosquito vector-virus interactions in DENV evolution. By comparing the ability of 23 viruses isolated on different dates between 1985 and 2009 to be transmitted by a present-day Aedes aegypti population from Thailand, we found that a major clade replacement event in the mid-1990s was associated with virus isolates exhibiting increased titers in the vector's hemocoel, which is predicted to result in a higher probability of transmission. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that selection for enhanced transmission by mosquitoes is a possible mechanism underlying major DENV clade replacement events. There was significant variation in transmission potential among isolates within each clade, indicating that in addition to vector-driven selection, other evolutionary forces act to maintain viral genetic diversity. We conclude that occasional adaptive processes involving the mosquito vector can drive major DENV lineage replacement events.     

Genome-wide patterns of intrahuman dengue virus diversity reveal associations with viral phylogenetic clade and interhost diversity

Analogous to observations in RNA viruses such as human immunodeficiency virus, genetic variation associated with intrahost dengue virus (DENV) populations has been postulated to influence viral fitness and disease pathogenesis. Previous attempts to investigate intrahost genetic variation in DENV characterized only a few viral genes or a limited number of full-length genomes. We developed a whole-genome amplification approach coupled with deep sequencing to capture intrahost diversity across the entire coding region of DENV-2. Using this approach, we sequenced DENV-2 genomes from the serum of 22 Nicaraguan individuals with secondary DENV infection and captured ～75% of the DENV genome in each sample (range, 40 to 98%). We identified and quantified variants using a highly sensitive and specific method and determined that the extent of diversity was considerably lower than previous estimates. Significant differences in intrahost diversity were detected between genes and also between antigenically distinct domains of the Envelope gene. Interestingly, a strong association was discerned between the extent of intrahost diversity in a few genes and viral clade identity. Additionally, the abundance of viral variants within a host, as well as the impact of viral mutations on amino acid encoding and predicted protein function, determined whether intrahost variants were observed at the interhost level in circulating Nicaraguan DENV-2 populations, strongly suggestive of purifying selection across transmission events. Our data illustrate the value of high-coverage genome-wide analysis of intrahost diversity for high-resolution mapping of the relationship between intrahost diversity and clinical, epidemiological, and virological parameters of viral infection.     

Dengue Virus Neutralizing Antibody Levels Associated with Protection from Infection in Thai Cluster Studies

Background

Long-term homologous and temporary heterologous protection from dengue virus (DENV) infection may be mediated by neutralizing antibodies. However, neutralizing antibody titers (NTs) have not been clearly associated with protection from infection.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data from two geographic cluster studies conducted in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand were used for this analysis. In the first study (2004–2007), cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases from a concurrent prospective cohort. Subjects between 6 months and 15 years old were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 15 by DENV PCR and IgM ELISA. In the second study (2009–2012), clusters of 200-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases admitted to the provincial hospital. Subjects of any age ≥6 months were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 14. In both studies, subjects who were DENV PCR positive at day 14/15 were considered to have been “susceptible” on day 0. Comparison subjects from houses in which someone had documented DENV infection, but the subject remained DENV negative at days 0 and 14/15, were considered “non-susceptible.” Day 0 samples were presumed to be from just before virus exposure, and underwent plaque reduction neutralization testing (PRNT). Seventeen “susceptible” (six DENV-1, five DENV-2, and six DENV-4), and 32 “non-susceptible” (13 exposed to DENV-1, 10 DENV-2, and 9 DENV-4) subjects were evaluated. Comparing subjects exposed to the same serotype, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves identified homotypic PRNT titers of 11, 323 and 16 for DENV-1, -2 and -4, respectively, to differentiate “susceptible” from “non-susceptible” subjects.

Conclusions/Significance

PRNT titers were associated with protection from infection by DENV-1, -2 and -4. Protective NTs appeared to be serotype-dependent and may be higher for DENV-2 than other serotypes. These findings are relevant for both dengue epidemiology studies and vaccine development efforts.     

Invasion and maintenance of dengue virus type 2 and type 4 in the Americas

Dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) was first reported in the Americas in 1981, where it caused epidemics of dengue fever throughout the region. In the same year, the region's first epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever was reported, caused by an Asian strain of dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that was distinct from the American subtype circulating previously. Despite the importance of these epidemics, little is known about the rates or determinants of viral spread among island and mainland populations or their directions of movement. We employed a Bayesian coalescent approach to investigate the transmission histories of DENV-2 and DENV-4 since their introduction in 1981 and a parsimony method to assess patterns of strain migration. For both viruses there was an initial invasion phase characterized by an exponential increase in the number of DENV lineages, after which levels of genetic diversity remained constant despite reported fluctuations in DENV-2 and DENV-4 activity. Strikingly, viral lineage numbers increased far more rapidly for DENV-4 than DENV-2, indicative of a more rapid rate of exponential population growth in DENV-4 or a higher rate of geographic dispersal, allowing this virus to move more effectively among localities. We propose that these contrasting dynamics may reflect underlying differences in patterns of host immunity. Despite continued gene flow along particular transmission routes, the overall extent of viral traffic was less than expected under panmixis. Hence, DENV in the Americas has a clear geographic structure that maintains viral diversity between outbreaks.     

Dengue infection in children in ratchaburi, Thailand: a cohort study. I. Epidemiology of symptomatic acute dengue infection in children, 2006-2009

Background

There is an urgent need to field test dengue vaccines to determine their role in the control of the disease. Our aims were to study dengue epidemiology and prepare the site for a dengue vaccine efficacy trial.

Methods and Findings

We performed a prospective cohort study of children in primary schools in central Thailand from 2006 through 2009. We assessed the epidemiology of dengue by active fever surveillance for acute febrile illness as detected by school absenteeism and telephone contact of parents, and dengue diagnostic testing. Dengue accounted for 394 (6.74%) of the 5,842 febrile cases identified in 2882, 3104, 2717 and 2312 student person-years over the four years, respectively. Dengue incidence was 1.77% in 2006, 3.58% in 2007, 5.74% in 2008 and 3.29% in 2009. Mean dengue incidence over the 4 years was 3.6%. Dengue virus (DENV) types were determined in 333 (84.5%) of positive specimens; DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1) was the most common (43%), followed by DENV-2 (29%), DENV-3 (20%) and DENV-4 (8%). Disease severity ranged from dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in 42 (10.5%) cases, dengue fever (DF) in 142 (35.5%) cases and undifferentiated fever (UF) in 210 (52.5%) cases. All four DENV serotypes were involved in all disease severity. A majority of cases had secondary DENV infection, 95% in DHF, 88.7% in DF and 81.9% in UF. Two DHF (0.5%) cases had primary DENV-3 infection.

Conclusion

The results illustrate the high incidence of dengue with all four DENV serotypes in primary school children, with approximately 50% of disease manifesting as mild clinical symptoms of UF, not meeting the 1997 WHO criteria for dengue. Severe disease (DHF) occurred in one tenth of cases. Data of this type are required for clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of dengue vaccines in large scale clinical trials.     

Phylogeography and population dynamics of dengue viruses in the Americas

Changes in Dengue virus (DENV) disease patterns in the Americas over recent decades have been attributed, at least in part, to repeated introduction of DENV strains from other regions, resulting in a shift from hypoendemicity to hyperendemicity. Using newly sequenced DENV-1 and DENV-3 envelope (E) gene isolates from 11 Caribbean countries, along with sequences available on GenBank, we sought to document the population genetic and spatiotemporal transmission histories of the four main invading DENV genotypes within the Americas and investigate factors that influence the rate and intensity of DENV transmission. For all genotypes, there was an initial invasion phase characterized by rapid increases in genetic diversity, which coincided with the first confirmed cases of each genotype in the region. Rapid geographic dispersal occurred upon each genotype's introduction, after which individual lineages were locally maintained, and gene flow was primarily observed among neighboring and nearby countries. There were, however, centers of viral diversity (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Colombia, Suriname, Venezuela, and Brazil) that were repeatedly involved in gene flow with more distant locations. For DENV-1 and DENV-2, we found that a "distance-informed" model, which posits that the intensity of virus movement between locations is inversely proportional to the distance between them, provided a better fit than a model assuming equal rates of movement between all pairs of countries. However, for DENV-3 and DENV-4, the more stochastic "equal rates" model was preferred.     

Correlation between reported dengue illness history and seropositivity in rural Thailand

In the latest World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for Dengvaxia implementation, either serological testing or a person’s history of prior dengue illness may be used as supporting evidence to identify dengue virus (DENV)-immune individuals eligible for vaccination, in areas with limited capacity for laboratory confirmation. This analysis aimed to estimate the concordance between self-reported dengue illness histories and seropositivity in a prospective cohort study for dengue virus infection in Kamphaeng Phet province, a dengue-endemic area in northern Thailand. The study enrolled 2,076 subjects from 516 multigenerational families, with a median age of 30.6 years (range 0–90 years). Individual and family member dengue illness histories were obtained by questionnaire. Seropositivity was defined based on hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays. Overall seropositivity for DENV was 86.5% among those aged 9–45 years, which increased with age. 18.5% of participants reported a history of dengue illness prior to enrollment; 30.1% reported a previous DENV infection in the family, and 40.1% reported DENV infection in either themselves or a family member. Relative to seropositivity by HAI in the vaccine candidate group, the sensitivity and specificity of individual prior dengue illness history were 18.5% and 81.6%, respectively; sensitivity and specificity of reported dengue illness in a family member were 29.8% and 68.0%, and of either the individual or a family member were 40.1% and 60.5%. Notably, 13.4% of individuals reporting prior dengue illness were seronegative. Given the high occurrence of asymptomatic and mild DENV infection, self-reported dengue illness history is poorly sensitive for prior exposure and may misclassify individuals as ‘exposed’ when they were not. This analysis highlights that a simple, highly sensitive, and highly specific test for determining serostatus prior to Dengvaxia vaccination is urgently needed.     

Emergence of a New Lineage of Dengue Virus Type 2 Identified in Travelers Entering Western Australia from Indonesia, 2010-2012

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is ubiquitous throughout the tropics. More than 70% of the current global dengue disease burden is borne by people who live in the Asia-Pacific region. We sequenced the E gene of DENV isolated from travellers entering Western Australia between 2010–2012, most of whom visited Indonesia, and identified a diverse array of DENV1-4, including multiple co-circulating viral lineages. Most viruses were closely related to lineages known to have circulated in Indonesia for some time, indicating that this geographic region serves as a major hub for dengue genetic diversity. Most notably, we identified a new lineage of DENV-2 (Cosmopolitan genotype) that emerged in Bali in 2011–2012. The spread of this lineage should clearly be monitored. Surveillance of symptomatic returned travellers provides important and timely information on circulating DENV serotypes and genotypes, and can reveal the herald wave of dengue and other emerging infectious diseases.     

Computational Prediction and Analysis of Envelop Glycoprotein Epitopes of DENV-2 and DENV-3 Pakistani Isolates: A First Step towards Dengue Vaccine Development

Dengue fever of tropics is a mosquito transmitted devastating disease caused by dengue virus (DENV). There is no effective vaccine available, so far, against any of its four serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4). There is a need for the development of preventive and therapeutic vaccines against DENV to decrease the prevalence of dengue fever, especially in Pakistan. In this research, linear and conformational B-cell epitopes of envelope glycoprotein of DENV-2 and DENV-3 (the most prevalent serotypes in Pakistan) were predicted. We used Kolaskar and Tongaonkar method for linear epitope prediction, Emini’s method for surface accessibility prediction and Karplus and Schulz’s algorithm for flexibility determination. To propose three dimensional epitopes, the E proteins for both serotypes were homology modeled by using Phyre2 V 2.0 server, and ElliPro was used for the prediction of surface epitopes on their globular structure. Total 21 and 19 linear epitopes were predicted for DENV-2 and DENV-3 Pakistani isolates respectively. Whereas, 5 and 4 discontinuous epitopes were proposed for DENV-2 and DENV-3 Pakistani isolates respectively. Moreover, the values of surface accessibility, flexibility and solvent-accessibility can be helpful in analyzing vaccines against DENV-2 and DENV-3. In conclusion, the proposed continuous and discontinuous antigenic peptides can be valuable candidates for diagnostic and therapeutics of DENV.     

Correlation of serotype-specific dengue virus infection with clinical manifestations

Background

Disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV) is a significant cause of morbidity throughout the world. Although prior research has focused on the association of specific DENV serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) with the development of severe outcomes such as dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome, relatively little work has correlated other clinical manifestations with a particular DENV serotype. The goal of this study was to estimate and compare the prevalence of non-hemorrhagic clinical manifestations of DENV infection by serotype.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Between the years 2005–2010, individuals with febrile disease from Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Paraguay were enrolled in an outpatient passive surveillance study. Detailed information regarding clinical signs and symptoms, as well as demographic information, was collected. DENV infection was confirmed in patient sera with polyclonal antibodies in a culture-based immunofluorescence assay, and the infecting serotype was determined by serotype-specific monoclonal antibodies. Differences in the prevalence of individual and organ-system manifestations were compared across DENV serotypes. One thousand seven hundred and sixteen individuals were identified as being infected with DENV-1 (39.8%), DENV-2 (4.3%), DENV-3 (41.5%), or DENV-4 (14.4%). When all four DENV serotypes were compared with each other, individuals infected with DENV-3 had a higher prevalence of musculoskeletal and gastrointestinal manifestations, and individuals infected with DENV-4 had a higher prevalence of respiratory and cutaneous manifestations.

Conclusions/Significance

Specific clinical manifestations, as well as groups of clinical manifestations, are often overrepresented by an individual DENV serotype.     

Dengue virus 3 clinical isolates show different patterns of virulence in experimental mice infection

Dengue virus (DENV) may cause symptomatic infection with mild, undifferentiated febrile illness called classical dengue fever (DF) or a more severe disease, potentially fatal, known as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome. The pathogenesis of DHF is based on the virulence of the infecting DENV and depends on the infecting serotypes and genotypes; it is also based on the immunopathogenesis that is mediated by host immune responses, including dengue virus-cross-reactive antibodies that augment the severity of infections. Involvement of central nervous system (CNS) is extensively described. The present study describes the virulence of DENV-3 isolates in a mouse model by intracranial (i.c.) inoculation with genotypes I and III. Our data suggest that, in this experimental model, DENV-3 genotype I may have the propensity to cause neurological disease in mice, whereas the genotype III is associated with asymptomatic infection in mice. Additionally, the symptomatic mice show a decrease of white blood cell count, infectious DENV in the brains and alterations in levels of IFN-gamma, IL-6 and MCP-1. The results confirm the mouse model as a way to study the biology of DENV-3 isolates and to improve the knowledge about the neurovirulence of the different genotypes of DENV.     

Development,Characterization and Application of Monoclonal Antibodies against Brazilian Dengue Virus Isolates

Dengue is the most prevalent human arboviral disease. The morbidity related to dengue infection supports the need for an early, quick and effective diagnostic test. Brazil is a hotspot for dengue, but no serological diagnostic test has been produced using Brazilian dengue virus isolates. This study aims to improve the development of immunodiagnostic methods for dengue virus (DENV) detection through the production and characterization of 22 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against Brazilian isolates of DENV-1, -2 and -3. The mAbs include IgG2bκ, IgG2aκ and IgG1κ isotypes, and most were raised against the envelope or the pre-membrane proteins of DENV. When the antibodies were tested against the four DENV serotypes, different reactivity patterns were identified: group-specific, subcomplex specific (DENV-1, -3 and -4 and DENV-2 and -3) and dengue serotype-specific (DENV-2 or -3). Additionally, some mAbs cross-reacted with yellow fever virus (YFV), West Nile virus (WNV) and Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV). None of the mAbs recognized the alphavirus Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV). Furthermore, mAbs D3 424/8G, D1 606/A12/B9 and D1 695/12C/2H were used to develop a capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for anti-dengue IgM detection in sera from patients with acute dengue. To our knowledge, these are the first monoclonal antibodies raised against Brazilian DENV isolates, and they may be of special interest in the development of diagnostic assays, as well as for basic research.     

Development and characterization of a reverse genetic system for studying dengue virus serotype 3 strain variation and neutralization

Dengue viruses (DENV) are enveloped single-stranded positive-sense RNA viruses transmitted by Aedes spp. mosquitoes. There are four genetically distinct serotypes designated DENV-1 through DENV-4, each further subdivided into distinct genotypes. The dengue scientific community has long contended that infection with one serotype confers lifelong protection against subsequent infection with the same serotype, irrespective of virus genotype. However this hypothesis is under increased scrutiny and the role of DENV genotypic variation in protection from repeated infection is less certain. As dengue vaccine trials move increasingly into field-testing, there is an urgent need to develop tools to better define the role of genotypic variation in DENV infection and immunity. To better understand genotypic variation in DENV-3 neutralization and protection, we designed and constructed a panel of isogenic, recombinant DENV-3 infectious clones, each expressing an envelope glycoprotein from a different DENV-3 genotype; Philippines 1982 (genotype I), Thailand 1995 (genotype II), Sri Lanka 1989 and Cuba 2002 (genotype III) and Puerto Rico 1977 (genotype IV). We used the panel to explore how natural envelope variation influences DENV-polyclonal serum interactions. When the recombinant viruses were tested in neutralization assays using immune sera from primary DENV infections, neutralization titers varied by as much as ～19-fold, depending on the expressed envelope glycoprotein. The observed variability in neutralization titers suggests that relatively few residue changes in the E glycoprotein may have significant effects on DENV specific humoral immunity and influence antibody mediated protection or disease enhancement in the setting of both natural infection and vaccination. These genotypic differences are also likely to be important in temporal and spatial microevolution of DENV-3 in the background of heterotypic neutralization. The recombinant and synthetic tools described here are valuable for testing hypotheses on genetic determinants of DENV-3 immunopathogenesis.     

Genetic specificity and potential for local adaptation between dengue viruses and mosquito vectors

Background  

Several observations support the hypothesis that vector-driven selection plays an important role in shaping dengue virus (DENV) genetic diversity. Clustering of DENV genetic diversity at a particular location may reflect underlying genetic structure of vector populations, which combined with specific vector genotype × virus genotype (G × G) interactions may promote adaptation of viral lineages to local mosquito vector genotypes. Although spatial structure of vector polymorphism at neutral genetic loci is well-documented, existence of G × G interactions between mosquito and virus genotypes has not been formally demonstrated in natural populations. Here we measure G × G interactions in a system representative of a natural situation in Thailand by challenging three isofemale families from field-derived Aedes aegypti with three contemporaneous low-passage isolates of DENV-1.     

Co-circulation of two genotypes of Dengue virus serotype 3 in Guangzhou, China, 2009

ABSTRACT: Dengue is emerging as the most important mosquito borne viral disease in the world. In mainland China, sporadic and large outbreaks of dengue illness caused by the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV-1 to DENV-4) have been well documented. Guangdong province is the major affected area in China, and DENV-1 has dominantly circulated in Guangdong for a long time. In this study, a family cluster of DENV-3 infection in Guangzhou was described. Three cases were diagnosed as dengue fever based on clinical manifestation, serological and RT-PCR assays. Two DENV-3 strains were isolated in C6/36 cells and the complete genome sequences were determined. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the new DENV-3 isolates from the family cluster were grouped within genotype III. Considering the fact that several DENV-3 strains within genotype V were also identified in Guangzhou in 2009, at least two genotypes of DENV-3 co-circulated in Guangzhou. Careful investigation and virological analysis should be warranted in the future.     

The ecological determinants of severe dengue: A Bayesian inferential model

Low socioeconomic status (SES), high temperature, and increasing rainfall patterns are associated with increased dengue case counts. However, the effect of climatic variables on individual dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and the extent to which serotype count affects the rate of severe dengue in Mexico have not been studied before. A principal components analysis was used to determine the poverty indices across Mexico. Conditional autoregressive Bayesian models were used to determine the effect of poverty and climatic variables on the rate of serotype distribution and severe dengue in Mexico. A unit increase in poverty increased the rate of DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 by 8.4%, 5%, 16%, and 13.8% respectively. An increase in one case attributable to DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 was independently associated with an increase in the rate of severe dengue by 0.02%, 0.1%, 0.03%, and 5.8% respectively. Hotspots of all DENV serotypes and severe dengue are found mostly in parts of the Northeastern, Center west, and Southeastern regions of Mexico. The association between climatic parameters predominant in the Southeast region and severe dengue leaves several states in this region at an increased risk of a higher number of severe dengue cases. Our study's results may guide policies that help allocate public health resources to the most vulnerable municipalities in Mexico.     

Use of seroprevalence to guide dengue vaccination plans for older adults in a dengue non-endemic country

A shift in dengue cases toward the adult population, accompanied by an increased risk of severe cases of dengue in the elderly, has created an important emerging issue in the past decade. To understand the level of past DENV infection among older adults after a large dengue outbreak occurred in southern Taiwan in 2015, we screened 1498 and 2603 serum samples from healthy residents aged ≥ 40 years in Kaohsiung City and Tainan City, respectively, to assess the seroprevalence of anti-DENV IgG in 2016. Seropositive samples were verified to exclude cross-reaction from Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), using DENV/JEV-NS1 indirect IgG ELISA. We further identified viral serotypes and secondary DENV infections among positive samples in the two cities. The overall age-standardized seroprevalence of DENV-IgG among participants was 25.77% in Kaohsiung and 11.40% in Tainan, and the seroprevalence was significantly higher in older age groups of both cities. Although the percentages of secondary DENV infection in Kaohsiung and Tainan were very similar (43.09% and 44.76%, respectively), DENV-1 and DENV-2 spanned a wider age range in Kaohsiung, whereas DENV-2 was dominant in Tainan. As very few studies have obtained the serostatus of DENV infection in older adults and the elderly, this study highlights the need for further investigation into antibody status, as well as the safety and efficacy of dengue vaccination in these older populations.