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Land acquisition is a common approach to biodiversity conservation but is typically subject to property availability on the public market. Consequently, conservation plans are often unable to be implemented as intended. When properties come on the market, conservation agencies must make a choice: purchase immediately, often without a detailed knowledge of its biodiversity value; survey the parcel and accept the risk that it may be removed from the market during this process; or not purchase and hope a better parcel comes on the market at a later date. We describe both an optimal method, using stochastic dynamic programming, and a simple rule of thumb for making such decisions. The solutions to this problem illustrate how optimal conservation is necessarily dynamic and requires explicit consideration of both the time period allowed for implementation and the availability of properties.  相似文献   

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We will be concerned with optimal intervention policies for a continuous-time stochastic SIR (susceptible-->infective-->removed) model for the spread of infection through a closed population. In previous work on such optimal policies, it is common to assume that model parameter values are known; in reality, uncertainty over parameter values exists. We shall consider the effect upon the optimal policy of changes in parameter estimates, and of explicitly taking into account parameter uncertainty via a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework. We consider policies allowing for (i) the isolation of any number of infectives, or (ii) the immunisation of all susceptibles (total immunisation). Numerical examples are given to illustrate our results.  相似文献   

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It is often argued that the benefit of eradication of an invasive species—a one-off injection of funds and the problem is solved—far outweighs the cost of a perennial control program. Furthermore, these are very attractive projects for funding agencies as outcomes are clear and easy to assess. Galapagos is in the early stage of the invasion process, with most alien species not yet naturalized and still restricted to gardens and farms. These species should be easy targets for early and cost-effective eradication projects, which would prevent many future problems. We review 30 plant eradication projects covering 23 potentially invasive species with limited distributions on four of the Galapagos Islands. Of the 30 projects, only four were successful: these were all less than 1 ha in net area, on land with a single owner and did not have persistent seed banks. Of the other 26 projects, most failed due to a lack of support from institutions that did not offer continuity of resources, from land owners who denied permission to carry out the work or from being too ambitious. As a result of these problems, 64.3% of the funding secured for the program was spent on discontinued projects. We highlight lessons learned to inform plant eradication programs in the future.  相似文献   

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Finding a common currency for benefits and hazards is a major challenge in optimal foraging theory, often requiring complex computational methods. We present a new analytic approach that builds on the Marginal Value Theorem and giving-up densities while incorporating the nonlinear effect of predation risk. We map the space of all possible environments into strategy regions, each corresponding to a discrete optimal strategy. This provides a generalised quantitative measure of the trade-off between foraging rewards and hazards. This extends a classic optimal diet choice rule-of-thumb to incorporate the hazard of waiting for better resources to appear. We compare the dynamics of optimal decision-making for three foraging life-history strategies: One in which fitness accrues instantly, and two with delays before fitness benefit is accrued. Foragers with delayed-benefit strategies are more sensitive to predation risk than resource quality, as they stand to lose more fitness from a predation event than instant-accrual foragers.  相似文献   

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Abstract.  Eucalyptus cladocalyx F. Muell., is a tree with a restricted distribution in the Southern Flinders Ranges, South Australia. It was originally introduced into the urban bushland of Kings Park, Perth, Western Australia in 1932 as an ornamental. Since its planting, E. cladocalyx has become invasive, spreading into the bushland up to 70 m away from planting sites. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the E. cladocalyx population is increasing at a greater rate than the two principal native tree species, E. gomphocephala DC. and E. marginata Donn ex Smith, but little is known about the factors influencing its invasion, or its biology. This study describes the population structure of E. cladocalyx , E. gomphocephala and E. marginata in Kings Park and the role of fire in the recruitment process. The study indicated that the three species have characteristics common to temperate Eucalyptus species that mass recruit seedlings following fire, with high numbers of seedlings found in recently burnt areas and low numbers in unburnt areas. Seedling survival in E. cladocalyx was higher than either of the native species. Furthermore, E. cladocalyx adults showed higher rates of canopy recovery following fires. It is argued that although fire in Kings Park is providing opportunities for E. cladocalyx , E. gomphocephala and E. marginata recruitment, the E. cladocalyx population is more resilient in an environment frequently disturbed by fire compared with the native populations.  相似文献   

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Managing spatially structured populations of imperiled species presents many challenges. Spatial structure can make it difficult to predict population responses to potential recovery activities, and learning through experimentation may not be advised if it could harm threatened populations. Adaptive management provides an appealing framework when experimentation is considered too risky or time consuming; we used such an approach for imperiled flatwoods salamanders at a Florida wildlife refuge. We represented this metapopulation with category count models and used stochastic dynamic programming to identify optimal decision policies that weighed trade-offs between metapopulation persistence and management costs. We defined possible wetland categories in terms of habitat suitability and occupancy, specified category-specific management actions, and identified transition probabilities via expert elicitation for two management strategies: “future” status quo (FSQ; frequent growing-season burns) and extra management actions (EMA; restoration, translocation, head-starting). We simulated metapopulation dynamics using the resulting optimal management policy and found that under model FSQ, occupancy steadily declined over time, indicating that populations would rapidly become extirpated; with model EMA, occupancy remained stable, suggesting that populations would persist only if additional actions are applied and are effective. This approach can be used to identify optimal solutions while accounting for uncertainty and considering both habitat and population dynamics, and to help managers make conservation decisions for populations at imminent risk of extinction.  相似文献   

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Many species are threatened by human activity through processes such as habitat modification, water management, hunting, and introduction of invasive species. These anthropogenic threats must be mitigated as efficiently as possible because both time and money available for mitigation are limited. For example, it is essential to address the type and degree of uncertainties present to derive effective management strategies for managed populations. Decision science provides the tools required to produce effective management strategies that can maximize or minimize the desired objective(s) based on imperfect knowledge, taking into account stochasticity. Of particular importance are questions such as how much of available budgets should be invested in reducing uncertainty and which uncertainties should be reduced. In such instances, decision science can help select efficient environmental management actions that may be subject to stochasticity and imperfect knowledge. Here, we review the use of decision science in environmental management to demonstrate the utility of the decision science framework. Our points are illustrated using examples from the literature. We conclude that collaboration between theoreticians and practitioners is crucial to maximize the benefits of decision science’s rational approach to dealing with uncertainty.  相似文献   

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Resource-Ratio Theory and the Control of Invasive Plants   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
There have been relatively few tests of resource-ratio theory in terrestrial systems. Additionally, resources are known to be an important factor determining the success of invasive species. Here I discuss how the study by Newingham and Belnap (pp. 29–40, this issue) tests predictions of resource-ratio theory and how they apply it to questions of invasion by Bromus tectorum in a terrestrial grassland.  相似文献   

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Covariance matrix estimation is a fundamental statistical task in many applications, but the sample covariance matrix is suboptimal when the sample size is comparable to or less than the number of features. Such high-dimensional settings are common in modern genomics, where covariance matrix estimation is frequently employed as a method for inferring gene networks. To achieve estimation accuracy in these settings, existing methods typically either assume that the population covariance matrix has some particular structure, for example, sparsity, or apply shrinkage to better estimate the population eigenvalues. In this paper, we study a new approach to estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices. We first frame covariance matrix estimation as a compound decision problem. This motivates defining a class of decision rules and using a nonparametric empirical Bayes g-modeling approach to estimate the optimal rule in the class. Simulation results and gene network inference in an RNA-seq experiment in mouse show that our approach is comparable to or can outperform a number of state-of-the-art proposals.  相似文献   

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