Aerial Dispersal and Multiple-Scale Spread of Epidemic Disease

Disease spread has traditionally been described as a traveling wave of constant velocity. However, aerially dispersed pathogens capable of long-distance dispersal often have dispersal gradients with extended tails that could result in acceleration of the epidemic front. We evaluated empirical data with a simple model of disease spread that incorporates logistic growth in time with an inverse power function for dispersal. The scale invariance of the power law dispersal function implies its applicability at any spatial scale; indeed, the model successfully described epidemics ranging over six orders of magnitude, from experimental field plots to continental-scale epidemics of both plant and animal diseases. The distance traveled by epidemic fronts approximately doubled per unit time, velocity increased linearly with distance (slope ~½), and the exponent of the inverse power law was approximately 2. We found that it also may be possible to scale epidemics to account for initial outbreak focus size and the frequency of susceptible hosts. These relationships improve understanding of the geographic spread of emerging diseases, and facilitate the development of methods for predicting and preventing epidemics of plants, animals, and humans caused by pathogens that are capable of long-distance dispersal.     

Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics

Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life‐history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual‐based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics.     

Seasonal and Diurnal Patterns of Spore Release Can Significantly Affect the Proportion of Spores Expected to Undergo Long-Distance Dispersal

Many of the fungal pathogens that threaten agricultural and natural systems undergo wind-assisted dispersal. During turbulent wind conditions, long-distance dispersal can occur, and airborne spores are carried over distances greater than the mean. The occurrence of long-distance dispersal is an important ecological process, as it can drastically increase the extent to which pathogen epidemics spread across a landscape, result in rapid transmission of disease to previously uninfected areas, and influence the spatial structure of pathogen populations in fragmented landscapes. Since the timing of spore release determines the wind conditions that prevail over a dispersal event, this timing is likely to affect the probability of long-distance dispersal occurring. Using a Lagrangian stochastic model, we test the effect of seasonal and diurnal variation in the release of spores on wind-assisted dispersal. Spores released during the hottest part of the day are shown to be more likely to undergo long-distance dispersal than those released at other times. Furthermore, interactions are shown to occur between seasonal and diurnal patterns of release. These results have important consequences for further modelling of wind-assisted dispersal and the use of models to predict the spread of fungal pathogens and resulting population and epidemic dynamics.     

Long-distance dispersal of the gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) facilitated its initial invasion of Wisconsin

Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) spread is dominated by stratified dispersal, and, although spread rates are variable in space and time, the gypsy moth has invaded Wisconsin at a consistently higher rate than in other regions. Allee effects, which act on low-density populations ahead of the moving population that contribute to gypsy moth spread, have also been observed to be consistently weaker in Wisconsin. Because a major cause of an Allee effect in the gypsy moth is mate-finding failure at low densities, supplementing low-density populations with immigrants that arrive through dispersal may facilitate establishment and consequent spread. We used local indicator of spatial autocorrelation methods to examine space-time gypsy moth monitoring data from 1996 to 2006 and identify isolated, low-density colonies that arrived through dispersal. We measured the distance of these colonies from the moving population front to show that long-distance dispersal was markedly present in earlier years when Wisconsin was still mainly uninfested. Recently, however, immigrants arriving through long-distance dispersal may no longer be detected because instead of invading uninfested areas, they are now supplementing high-density colonies. In contrast, we observed no temporal pattern in the distance between low-density colonies and the population front in West Virginia and Virginia. We submit that long-distance dispersal, perhaps facilitated through meteorological mechanisms, played an important role in the spread dynamics of the initial Wisconsin gypsy moth invasion, but it currently plays a lesser role because the portion of Wisconsin most susceptible to long-distance immigrants from alternate sources is now heavily infested.     

Epidemiology and Management of a Periodically Introduced Pathogen

Periodically introduced plant pathogens, which are characterized by multiyear epidemics followed by multiyear absences, offer a number of unique challenges to disease management. Peronospora tabacina, the causal agent of tobacco blue mold, is periodically re-introduced into the northern tobacco growing areas of North America, and offers a model system to illustrate these challenges. Blue mold is very damaging, particularly to the wrapper tobacco types grown in Connecticut and Massachusetts which have little tolerance for disease, as even a limited number of leaf blemishes severely reduces their marketability. From its first introduction into Connecticut in 1937, the pathogen has exhibited a pattern of multiyear epidemics after which it disappears for a number of years. This cycle occurred three times in Connecticut between 1937 and 2001. The last two appearances of blue mold have been associated either with a change in the pathogen's tolerance of high temperatures or with resistance to a fungicide. The lessons learned from blue mold could be extended to other periodically introduced pathogens. Cooperative research, education efforts, and inter-regional contacts need to be maintained to monitor for potential changes in a pathogen's biology and epidemiology that might affect disease management. Epidemiological studies to determine the probability of different means of pathogen dispersal, forecasts of relative risk of exposure, and the development of tactics to reduce the probability of successful introduction should all help to extend pathogen-free periods and reduce crop losses due to disease.     

Modelling biological invasions over homogeneous and inhomogeneous landscapes using level set methods

The establishment, spread and subsequent degradation of existing environments by invasive species is a worldwide problem affecting native and agricultural ecosystems. The phenomenal cost to governments as a result of research and eradication or control drives the need to understand invasion characteristics. In this paper we develop a method for modelling the boundary of an invasion over time with model inputs being the initial distribution of the invasion and the speed at which the invasion front moves over time. This speed function can depend on the topography of the ground cover and we consider examples of homogeneous and inhomogeneous spread. The possibility of a long-distance dispersal event occurring is also considered. In particular, examples of the spread of emergent weeds and weeds which favour creeks and river beds in New Zealand are presented.     

Dynamic expansion in recently introduced populations of fire ant parasitoids (Diptera: Phoridae)

Combating invasive species requires a detailed, mechanistic understanding of the manner and speed with which organisms expand their ranges. Biological control efforts provide an opportunity to study the process of species invasions and range expansions under known initial conditions. This study examines the rate, pattern and mechanisms of spread for two populations of the biological control agent Pseudacteon tricuspis, phorid-fly parasitoids of imported fire ants. We employ a trap-based survey method that detects phorid flies in low-density populations, and provides data on abundance. This technique allows us to differentiate between continuous population spread and effective long-distance dispersal and to examine density gradients of phorid flies across the expanding population front. We find that occupied sites in front of the leading edge of continuous populations were common; forming small populations we refer to as satellite populations. Satellite populations are tens of kilometers from the nearest possible source. Wind governs the dynamics of spread in these two central Texas populations. Population edges expanding with the wind exhibited a higher frequency of effective long-distance dispersal than did populations expanding into the wind. This enhanced effective long-distance dispersal rate translated into a five times faster rate of spread for population edges traveling with the wind. This planned invasion shares many characteristics in common with unplanned species invasions including: protracted establishment phase during which densities were below detection thresholds, and slow initial spread immediately after establishment followed by rapid, accelerating spread rates as population sizes grew.     

Inferring long-distance dispersal and topographic barriers during post-glacial colonization from the genetic structure of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) in New England

Aim  This study aims to assess the role of long-distance seed dispersal and topographic barriers in the post-glacial colonization of red maple ( Acer rubrum L.) using chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) variation, and to understand whether this explains the relatively higher northern diversity found in eastern North American tree species compared with that in Europe.
Location  North-eastern United States.
Methods  The distribution of intraspecific cpDNA variation in temperate tree populations has been used to identify aspects of post-glacial population spread, including topographic barriers to population expansion and spread by long-distance seed dispersal. We sequenced c.  370 cpDNA base pairs from 221 individuals in 100 populations throughout the north-eastern United States, and analysed spatial patterns of diversity and differentiation.
Results  Red maple has high genetic diversity near its northern range limit, but this diversity is not partitioned by topographic barriers, suggesting that the northern Appalachian Mountains were not a barrier to the colonization of red maple. We also found no evidence of the patchy genetic structure that has been associated with spread by rare long-distance seed dispersal in previous studies.
Main conclusions  Constraints on post-glacial colonization in eastern North America seem to have been less stringent than those in northern Europe, where bottlenecks arising from long-distance colonization and topographic barriers appear to have strongly reduced genetic diversity. In eastern North America, high northern genetic diversity may have been maintained by a combination of frequent long-distance dispersal, minor topographic obstacles and diffuse northern refugia near the ice sheet.     

Comparable ecological dynamics underlie early cancer invasion and species dispersal, involving self-organizing processes

Occupancy of new habitats through dispersion is a central process in nature. In particular, long-distance dispersal is involved in the spread of species and epidemics, although it has not been previously related with cancer invasion, a process that involves cell spreading to tissues far away from the primary tumour.Using simulations and real data we show that the early spread of cancer cells is similar to the species individuals spread and we suggest that both processes are represented by a common spatio-temporal signature of long-distance dispersal and subsequent local proliferation. This signature is characterized by a particular fractal geometry of the boundaries of patches generated, and a power-law scaled, disrupted patch size distribution. In contrast, invasions involving only dispersal but not subsequent proliferation (“physiological invasions”) like trophoblast cells invasion during normal human placentation did not show the patch size power-law pattern. Our results are consistent under different temporal and spatial scales, and under different resolution levels of analysis.We conclude that the scaling properties are a hallmark and a direct result of long-distance dispersal and proliferation, and that they could reflect homologous ecological processes of population self-organization during cancer and species spread. Our results are significant for the detection of processes involving long-range dispersal and proliferation like cancer local invasion and metastasis, biological invasions and epidemics, and for the formulation of new cancer therapeutical approaches.     

History,genetics and pathology of a leaf-cutting ant introduction: a case study of the Guadeloupe invasion

As dominant herbivores and notorious pests in their native Neotropics, introduced leaf-cutting ants have the potential for ecological and economic harm. Although a large-scale invasion of leaf-cutting ants has not occurred, an isolated introduction in the Caribbean islands of Guadeloupe provides useful insight into the progress of such an invasion. Since being first detected in 1954, Acromyrmex octospinosus has colonized virtually all available land area, defying an aggressive control campaign and damaging agriculture. I attempted to reconstruct the origins and spread of the invasion, as well as screen for the presence of garden pathogens, which could be used for biological control. Mitochondrial sequencing of the A. octospinosus complex throughout the Caribbean showed that the probable source of the invasion lies on Trinidad and Tobago or northeast South America. Using historical records and field surveys, the invasion’s rate of spread was estimated at 0.51 km/year. Microsatellite genotyping further confirmed the limited dispersal abilities of A. octospinosus, showing the presence of isolation by distance (even in a relatively small geographic area) and suggested ubiquitous local inbreeding. Although the invasion likely resulted from the introduction of a single colony, microsatellites showed a high level of genetic variation in the introduced population, likely as a consequence of multiple mating by the queen. A survey showed that the specialized fungus garden pathogen Escovopsis exists on the islands, suggesting that the successful spread of the ants was not due to escape from this parasite. Given that chemical control has failed in the past and that biological control using specialized garden pathogens seems improbable, only vigorous quarantine and inspection programs may prevent wide-scale leaf-cutting ant invasions in the future.     

Combining field epidemiological information and genetic data to comprehensively reconstruct the invasion history and the microevolution of the sudden oak death agent Phytophthora ramorum (Stramenopila: Oomycetes) in California

Understanding the migration patterns of invasive organisms is of paramount importance to predict and prevent their further spread. Previous attempts at reconstructing the entire history of the sudden oak death (SOD) epidemic in California were limited by: (1) incomplete sampling; (2) the inability to include infestations caused by a single genotype of the pathogen; (3) collapsing of non-spatially contiguous yet genetically similar samples into large meta-samples that confounded the coalescent analyses. Here, we employ an intensive sampling coverage of 832 isolates of Phytopthora ramorum (the causative agent of SOD) from 60 California forests, genotyped at nine microsatellite loci, to reconstruct its invasion. By using age of infestation as a constraint on coalescent analyses, by dividing genetically indistinguishable meta-populations into highly-resolved sets of spatially contiguous populations, and by using Bruvo genetic distances for most analyses, we reconstruct the entire history of the epidemic and convincingly show infected nursery plants are the original source for the entire California epidemic. Results indicate that multiple human-mediated introductions occurred in most counties and that further disease sources were represented by large wild infestations. The study also identifies minor introductions, some of them relatively recent, linked to infected ornamental plants. Finally, using archival isolates collected soon after the discovery of the pathogen in California, we corroborate that the epidemic is likely to have resulted form 3 to 4 core founder individuals evolved from a single genotype. This is probably the most complete reconstruction ever completed for an invasion by an exotic forest pathogen, and the approach here described may be useful for the reconstruction of invasions by any clonally reproducing organism with a relatively limited natural dispersal range.     

Evolutionarily accelerated invasions: the rate of dispersal evolves upwards during the range advance of cane toads

Human activities are changing habitats and climates and causing species' ranges to shift. Range expansion brings into play a set of powerful evolutionary forces at the expanding range edge that act to increase dispersal rates. One likely consequence of these forces is accelerating rates of range advance because of evolved increases in dispersal on the range edge. In northern Australia, cane toads have increased their rate of spread fivefold in the last 70 years. Our breeding trials with toads from populations spanning the species' invasion history in Australia suggest a genetic basis to dispersal rates and interpopulation genetic variation in such rates. Toads whose parents were from the expanding range front dispersed faster than toads whose parents were from the core of the range. This difference reflects patterns found in their field-collected mothers and fathers and points to heritable variance in the traits that have accelerated the toads' rate of invasion across tropical Australia over recent decades. Taken together with demonstrated spatial assortment by dispersal ability occurring on the expanding front, these results point firmly to ongoing evolution as a driving force in the accelerated expansion of toads across northern Australia.     

Modelling the spread and control of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Xylella fastidiosa</Emphasis> in the early stages of invasion in Apulia,Italy

Xylella fastidiosa is an important plant pathogen that attacks several plants of economic importance. Once restricted to the Americas, the bacterium, which causes olive quick decline syndrome, was discovered near Lecce, Italy in 2013. Since the initial outbreak, it has invaded 23,000 ha of olives in the Apulian Region, southern Italy, and is of great concern throughout Mediterranean basin. Therefore, predicting its spread and estimating the efficacy of control are of utmost importance. As data on this invasive infectious disease are poor, we have developed a spatially-explicit simulation model for X. fastidiosa to provide guidance for predicting spread in the early stages of invasion and inform management strategies. The model qualitatively and quantitatively predicts the patterns of spread. We model control zones currently employed in Apulia, showing that increasing buffer widths decrease infection risk beyond the control zone, but this may not halt the spread completely due to stochastic long-distance jumps caused by vector dispersal. Therefore, management practices should aim to reduce vector long-distance dispersal. We find optimal control scenarios that minimise control effort while reducing X. fastidiosa spread maximally—suggesting that increasing buffer zone widths should be favoured over surveillance efforts as control budgets increase. Our model highlights the importance of non-olive hosts which increase the spread rate of the disease and may lead to an order of magnitude increase in risk. Many aspects of X. fastidiosa disease invasion remain uncertain and hinder forecasting; we recommend future studies investigating quantification of the infection growth rate, and short and long distance dispersal.     

Resource-dependent dispersal and the speed of biological invasions

Many mobile organisms exhibit resource-dependent movement in which movement rates adjust to changes in local resource densities through changes in either the probability of moving or the distance moved. Such changes may have important consequences for invasions because reductions in resources behind an invasion front may cause higher dispersal while simultaneously reducing population growth behind the front and thus lowering the number of dispersers. Intuiting how the interplay between population growth and dispersal affects invasions is difficult without mathematical models, yet most models assume dispersal rates are constant. Here we present spatial-spread models that allow for consumer-resource interactions and resource-dependent dispersal. Our results show that when resources affect the probability of dispersal, then the invasion dynamics are no different than if resources did not affect dispersal. When resources instead affect the distance dispersed, however, the invasion dynamics are strongly affected by the strength of the consumer-resource interaction, and population cycles behind the wave front lead to fluctuating rates of spread. Our results suggest that for actively dispersing invaders, invasion dynamics can be determined by species interactions. More practically, our work suggests that reducing invader densities behind the front may be a useful method of slowing an invader's rate of spread.     

Population Genetics of Ceratitis capitata in South Africa: Implications for Dispersal and Pest Management

The invasive Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata, is one of the major agricultural and economical pests globally. Understanding invasion risk and mitigation of medfly in agricultural landscapes requires knowledge of its population structure and dispersal patterns. Here, estimates of dispersal ability are provided in medfly from South Africa at three spatial scales using molecular approaches. Individuals were genotyped at 11 polymorphic microsatellite loci and a subset of individuals were also sequenced for the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene. Our results show that South African medfly populations are generally characterized by high levels of genetic diversity and limited population differentiation at all spatial scales. This suggests high levels of gene flow among sampling locations. However, natural dispersal in C. capitata has been shown to rarely exceed 10 km. Therefore, documented levels of high gene flow in the present study, even between distant populations (>1600 km), are likely the result of human-mediated dispersal or at least some form of long-distance jump dispersal. These findings may have broad applicability to other global fruit production areas and have significant implications for ongoing pest management practices, such as the sterile insect technique.     

Clinical, epidemiologic, and environmental surveillance for ehrlichiosis and anaplasmosis in an endemic area of northern California.

Two forms of tick-borne leukocytotropic rickettsioses have been recognized in California since the mid-1990s: human monocytic ehrlichiosis (HME) caused by Ehrlichia chaffeensis and human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA) caused by Anaplasma phagocytophilum. Between 1997 and 1999, two cases of HME and four cases of HGA were diagnosed in residents of southern Humboldt County, California. Environmental followup at case-patients' residences revealed dense populations of Ixodes pacificus ticks, particularly in grassy roadside areas. PCR evidence of A. phagocytophilum was detected in approximately 2.0% of I. pacificus; E. chaffeensis was not detected in any of 625 ticks tested. Serologic antibody to A. phagocytophilum was detected in two of 54 participants in a community epidemiologic study; one of these also had antibody to E. chaffeensis. Over 85% of study participants reported finding a tick on themselves in the preceding 12 mo. Residents of southern Humboldt County are at significant risk of tick bites and should take appropriate prevention measures to avoid infection with rickettsia and other tick-transmitted pathogens.     

Lack of sex‐specific movement patterns in an alien species at its invasion front – consequences for invasion speed

Efficient targeting of actions to reduce the spread of invasive alien species relies on understanding the spatial, temporal, and individual variation of movement, in particular related to dispersal. Such patterns may differ between individuals at the invasion front compared to individuals in established and dense populations due to differences in environmental and ecological conditions such as abundance of conspecifics or sex‐specific dispersal affecting the encounter rate of potential mates. We assessed seasonal and diurnal variation in movement pattern (step length and turning angle) of adult male and female raccoon dog at their invasion front in northern Sweden using data from Global Positioning System (GPS)‐marked adult individuals and assessed whether male and female raccoon dog differed in their movement behavior. There were few consistent sex differences in movement. The rate of dispersal was rather similar over the months, suggesting that both male and female raccoon dog disperse during most of the year, but with higher speed during spring and summer. There were diurnal movement patterns in both sexes with more directional and faster movement during the dark hours. However, the short summer nights may limit such movement patterns, and long‐distance displacement was best explained by fine‐scale movement patterns from 18:00 to 05:00, rather than by movement patterns only from twilight and night. Simulation of dispersing raccoon dogs suggested a higher frequency of male–female encounters that were further away from the source population for the empirical data compared to a scenario with sex differences in movement pattern. The lack of sex differences in movement pattern at the invasion front results in an increased likelihood for reproductive events far from the source population. Animals outside the source population should be considered potential reproducing individuals, and a high effort to capture such individuals is needed throughout the year to prevent further spread.     

A simulation model of plant invasion: long-distance dispersal determines the pattern of spread

Mechanisms and consequences of biological invasions are a global issue. Yet, one of the key aspects, the initial phase of invasion, is rarely observed in detail. Data from aerial photographs covering the spread of Heracleum mantegazzianum (Apiaceae, native to Caucasus) on a local scale of hectares in the Czech Republic from the beginning of invasion were used as an input for an individual-based model (IBM), based on small-scale and short-time data. To capture the population development inferred from the photographs, long-distance seed dispersal, changes in landscape structures and suitability of landscape elements to invasion by H. mantegazzianum were implemented in the model. The model was used to address (1) the role of long-distance dispersal in regional invasion dynamics, and (2) the effect of land-use changes on the progress of the invasion. Simulations showed that already small fractions of seed subjected to long-distance dispersal, as determined by systematic comparison of field data and modelling results, had an over-proportional effect on the spread of this species. The effect of land-use changes on the simulated course of invasion depends on the actual level of habitat saturation; it is larger for populations covering a high proportion of available habitat area than for those in the initial phase of invasion. Our results indicate how empirical field data and model outputs can be linked more closely with each other to improve the understanding of invasion dynamics. The multi-level, but nevertheless simple structure of our model suggests that it can be used for studying the spread of similar species invading in comparable landscapes.     

Reconstructing the range expansion and subsequent invasion of introduced European green crab along the west coast of the United States

The European green crab, Carcinus maenas, was first documented in San Francisco Bay in 1989, and has since spread north along the west coast of North America. The spread of this invasion has not been a smooth expansion, which has raised questions about the underlying causes of variation in recruitment. We modeled larval development and transport along the West Coast by employing an individual-based model that incorporated oceanographic model output of water temperature and ocean currents at fine spatial and temporal scales. The distance that larvae were advected depended primarily on the timing of larval release. However, the effect of seasonal ocean currents varied across latitude and years. Our results imply that the furthest northern transport from California occurs when larvae are released from Humboldt Bay during the fall of an El Niño year, making this a particularly risky time for invasion to Oregon and Washington estuaries. To precisely predict future spread and potential impacts of green crab, we recommend further empirical research to determine the precise timing of larval release and seasonal abundance of green crab larvae from North American west coast populations.     

Evolutionarily labile species interactions and spatial spread of invasive species

Both exotic and native species have been shown to evolve in response to invasions, yet the impacts of rapidly evolving interactions between novel species pairs have been largely ignored in studies of invasive species spread. Here, I use a mathematical model of an interacting invasive predator and its native prey to determine when and how evolutionary lability in one or both species might impact the dynamics of the invader's spatial advance. The model shows that evolutionarily labile invaders continually evolve better adapted phenotypes along the moving invasion front, offering an explanation for accelerating spread and spatial phenotype clines following invasion. I then analytically derive a formula to estimate the relative change in spread rate due to evolution. Using parameter estimates from the literature, this formula shows that moderate heritabilities and selection strengths are sufficient to account for changes in spread rates observed in historical and ongoing invasions. Evolutionarily labile native species can slow invader spread when genes flow from native populations with exposure to the invader into native populations ahead of the invasion front. This outcome is more likely in systems with highly diffuse native dispersal, net directional movement of natives toward the invasion front, or human inoculation of uninvaded native populations.