Climate warming has direct and indirect effects on microbes associated with carbon cycling in northern lakes

Northern lakes disproportionately influence the global carbon cycle, and may do so more in the future depending on how their microbial communities respond to climate warming. Microbial communities can change because of the direct effects of climate warming on their metabolism and the indirect effects of climate warming on groundwater connectivity from thawing of surrounding permafrost, especially at lower landscape positions. Here we used shotgun metagenomics to compare the taxonomic and functional gene composition of sediment microbes in 19 peatland lakes across a 1600-km permafrost transect in boreal western Canada. We found microbes responded differently to the loss of regional permafrost cover than to increases in local groundwater connectivity. These results suggest that both the direct and indirect effects of climate warming, which were respectively associated with loss of permafrost and subsequent changes in groundwater connectivity interact to change microbial composition and function. Archaeal methanogens and genes involved in all major methanogenesis pathways were more abundant in warmer regions with less permafrost, but higher groundwater connectivity partly offset these effects. Bacterial community composition and methanotrophy genes did not vary with regional permafrost cover, and the latter changed similarly to methanogenesis with groundwater connectivity. Finally, we found an increase in sugar utilization genes in regions with less permafrost, which may further fuel methanogenesis. These results provide the microbial mechanism for observed increases in methane emissions associated with loss of permafrost cover in this region and suggest that future emissions will primarily be controlled by archaeal methanogens over methanotrophic bacteria as northern lakes warm. Our study more generally suggests that future predictions of aquatic carbon cycling will be improved by considering how climate warming exerts both direct effects associated with regional-scale permafrost thaw and indirect effects associated with local hydrology.     

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate‐induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.     

From clear lakes to murky waters – tracing the functional response of high‐latitude lake communities to concurrent ‘greening’ and ‘browning’

Climate change and the intensification of land use practices are causing widespread eutrophication of subarctic lakes. The implications of this rapid change for lake ecosystem function remain poorly understood. To assess how freshwater communities respond to such profound changes in their habitat and resource availability, we conducted a space‐for‐time analysis of food‐web structure in 30 lakes situated across a temperature‐productivity gradient equivalent to the predicted future climate of subarctic Europe (temperature +3°C, precipitation +30% and nutrient +45 μg L^?1 total phosphorus). Along this gradient, we observed an increase in the assimilation of pelagic‐derived carbon from 25 to 75% throughout primary, secondary and tertiary consumers. This shift was overwhelmingly driven by the consumption of pelagic detritus by benthic primary consumers and was not accompanied by increased pelagic foraging by higher trophic level consumers. Our data also revealed a convergence of the carbon isotope ratios of pelagic and benthic food web endmembers in the warmest, most productive lakes indicating that the incorporation of terrestrial derived carbon into aquatic food webs increases as land use intensifies. These results, reflecting changes along a gradient characteristic of the predicted future environment throughout the subarctic, indicate that climate and land use driven eutrophication and browning are radically altering the function and fuelling of aquatic food webs in this biome.     

Climate and landscape influence on indicators of lake carbon cycling through spatial patterns in dissolved organic carbon

Freshwater ecosystems are strongly influenced by both climate and the surrounding landscape, yet the specific pathways connecting climatic and landscape drivers to the functioning of lake ecosystems are poorly understood. Here, we hypothesize that the links that exist between spatial patterns in climate and landscape properties and the spatial variation in lake carbon (C) cycling at regional scales are at least partly mediated by the movement of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the aquatic component of the landscape. We assembled a set of indicators of lake C cycling (bacterial respiration and production, chlorophyll a, production to respiration ratio, and partial pressure of CO₂), DOC concentration and composition, and landscape and climate characteristics for 239 temperate and boreal lakes spanning large environmental and geographic gradients across seven regions. There were various degrees of spatial structure in climate and landscape features that were coherent with the regionally structured patterns observed in lake DOC and indicators of C cycling. These different regions aligned well, albeit nonlinearly along a mean annual temperature gradient; whereas there was a considerable statistical effect of climate and landscape properties on lake C cycling, the direct effect was small and the overall effect was almost entirely overlapping with that of DOC concentration and composition. Our results suggest that key climatic and landscape signals are conveyed to lakes in part via the movement of terrestrial DOC to lakes and that DOC acts both as a driver of lake C cycling and as a proxy for other external signals.     

Higher temperatures enhance the effects of invasive sportfish on mountain zooplankton communities

1. Decades of introductions of exotic sportfish to mountain lakes around the world have impoverished them biologically, and this may be exacerbated by global warming. We assessed the current status of invasive salmonids and native zooplankton communities in 34 naturally fishless lakes along an elevational gradient, which served as an environmental proxy for the expected effects of climate change. 2. Our main goal was to explore how climate‐related variables influence the effects of stocked salmonids on the total biomass, species richness and taxonomic composition of zooplankton. We predicted that warmer conditions would dampen the negative predatory effects of exotic brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) on zooplankton communities because more temperate lakes contain a greater diversity of potentially tolerant species. 3. Instead, we discovered that the persistence of stocked brook trout in the warmer lakes significantly amplified total zooplankton biomass and species richness. In colder and deeper lakes, zooplankton were relatively unaffected by S. fontinalis, which however persisted better in alpine lakes than at lower elevations after stocking practices were halted over two decades ago. Warmer lake conditions and higher concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were significant primary drivers of zooplankton species turnover, both favouring greater species diversity. 4. Our findings of an ecological surprise involving potential synergistic positive effects of climate warming and exotic trout on native zooplankton communities presents a conundrum for managers of certain national mountain parks. Present mandates to eradicate non‐native trout and return the mountain lakes to their naturally fishless state may conflict with efforts to conserve biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate.     

Empirical modelling of lake water-temperature relationships: a comparison of approaches

1.  As a result of the role that temperature plays in many aquatic processes, good predictive models of annual maximum near-surface lake water temperature across large spatial scales are needed, particularly given concerns regarding climate change. Comparisons of suitable modelling approaches are required to determine their relative merit and suitability for providing good predictions of current conditions. We developed models predicting annual maximum near-surface lake water temperatures for lakes across Canada using four statistical approaches: multiple regression, regression tree, artificial neural networks and Bayesian multiple regression.
2.  Annual maximum near-surface (from 0 to 2 m) lake water-temperature data were obtained for more than 13 000 lakes and were matched to geographic, climatic, lake morphology, physical habitat and water chemistry data. We modelled 2348 lakes and three subsets thereof encompassing different spatial scales and predictor variables to identify the relative importance of these variables at predicting lake temperature.
3.  Although artificial neural networks were marginally better for three of the four data sets, multiple regression was considered to provide the best solution based on the combination of model performance and computational complexity. Climatic variables and date of sampling were the most important variables for predicting water temperature in our models.
4.  Lake morphology did not play a substantial role in predicting lake temperature across any of the spatial scales. Maximum near-surface temperatures for Canadian lakes appeared to be dominated by large-scale climatic and geographic patterns, rather than lake-specific variables, such as lake morphology and water chemistry.     

Direct and indirect climatic drivers of biotic interactions: ice-cover and carbon runoff shaping Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus and brown trout Salmo trutta competitive asymmetries

One of the major challenges in ecological climate change impact science is to untangle the climatic effects on biological interactions and indirect cascading effects through different ecosystems. Here, we test for direct and indirect climatic drivers on competitive impact of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus L.) on brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) along a climate gradient in central Scandinavia, spanning from coastal to high-alpine environments. As a measure of competitive impact, trout food consumption was measured using ¹³⁷Cs tracer methodology both during the ice-covered and ice-free periods, and contrasted between lakes with or without char coexistence along the climate gradient. Variation in food consumption between lakes was best described by a linear mixed effect model including a three-way interaction between the presence/absence of Arctic char, season and Secchi depth. The latter is proxy for terrestrial dissolved organic carbon run-off, strongly governed by climatic properties of the catchment. The presence of Arctic char had a negative impact on trout food consumption. However, this effect was stronger during ice-cover and in lakes receiving high carbon load from the catchment, whereas no effect of water temperature was evident. In conclusion, the length of the ice-covered period and the export of allochthonous material from the catchment are likely major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of the competitive interaction between two freshwater lake top predators. While future climatic scenarios predict shorter ice-cover duration, they also predict increased carbon run-off. The present study therefore emphasizes the complexity of cascading ecosystem effects in future effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

Dispersal through stream networks: modelling climate‐driven range expansions of fishes

Aim To incorporate dispersal through stream networks into models predicting the future distribution of a native, freshwater fish given climate change scenarios. Location Sweden. Methods We used logistic regression to fit climate and habitat data to observed pike (Esox lucius Linnaeus) distributions in 13,476 lakes. We used GIS to map dispersal pathways through streams. Lakes either (1) contained pike or were downstream from pike lakes, (2) were upstream from pike lakes, but downstream from natural dispersal barriers, or (3) were isolated from streams or were upstream from natural dispersal barriers. We then used climate projections to model future distributions of pike and compared our results with and without including dispersal. Results Given climate and habitat, pike were predicted present in all of 99,249 Swedish lakes by 2100. After accounting for dispersal barriers, we only predicted pike presence in 31,538 lakes. Dispersal barriers most strongly limited pike invasion in mountainous regions, but low connectivity also characterized some relatively flat regions. Main conclusions The dendritic network structure of streams and interconnected lakes makes a two‐dimensional representation of the landscape unsuitable for predicting range shifts of many freshwater organisms. If dispersal through stream networks is not accounted for, predictions of future fish distributions in a warmer climate might grossly overestimate range expansions of warm and cool‐water fishes and underestimate range contractions of cold‐water fishes. Dispersal through stream networks can be modelled in any region for which a digital elevation model and species occurrence data are available.     

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake‐specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989–2014) and future (2040–2064 and 2065–2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake‐specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33–75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27–60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid‐century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.     

Total Organic Carbon (TOC) of Lake Water During the Holocene Inferred from Lake Sediments and Near-infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) in Eight Lakes from Northern Sweden

The aim of this study is to infer past changes in total organic carbon (TOC) content of lake water during the Holocene in eight boreal forest, tree-limit and alpine lakes using a new technique – near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). A training set of 100 lakes from northern Sweden covering a TOC gradient from 0.7 to 14.9 mg l⁻¹ was used to establish a relationship between the NIRS signal from surface sediments (0–1 cm) and the TOC content of the water mass. The NIRS model for TOC has a root mean squared error (RMSECV) of calibration of 1.6 mg l⁻¹ (11% of the gradient) assessed by internal cross-validation (CV), which yields an R²_cv of 0.61. The results show that the most dramatic change among the studied lakes occurs in both tree-line lakes around 1000 yrs BP when the TOC content decreases from ca. 7 to 3 mg l⁻¹ at the present, which is probably due to a descending tree-limit. The TOC content in the alpine lakes shows a declining trend throughout most of the Holocene indicating that TOC may be more directly correlated to climate in alpine lakes than forest lakes. All boreal forest lakes show a declining trend in TOC during the past 3000 yrs with the largest amplitude of change occurring in the lake with a connected mire. The results indicate that a change to a warmer and more humid climate can increase the TOC levels in lakes, which in turn may increase the saturation of CO₂ in lake waters and the emission of CO₂ to the atmosphere.     

Ambiguous climate impacts on competition between submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton in shallow lakes

1. Shallow lakes may switch from a state dominated by submerged macrophytes to a phytoplankton‐dominated state when a critical nutrient concentration is exceeded. We explore how climate change may affect this critical nutrient concentration by linking a graphical model to data from 83 lakes along a large climate gradient in South America. 2. The data indicate that in warmer climates, submerged macrophytes may tolerate more underwater shade than in cooler lakes. By contrast, the relationship between phytoplankton biomass [approximated by chlorophyll‐a (chl‐a) or biovolume] and nutrient concentrations did not change consistently along the climate gradient. In warmer climates, the correlation between phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentrations was overall weak, especially at low total phosphorus (TP) concentrations where the chl‐a/ TP ratio could be either low or high. 3. Although the enhanced shade tolerance of submerged plants in warmer lakes might promote the stability of their dominance, the potentially high phytoplankton biomass at low nutrient concentrations suggests an overall low predictability of climate effects. 4. We found that near‐bottom oxygen concentrations are lower in warm lakes than in cooler lakes, implying that anoxic P release from eutrophic sediment in warm lakes likely causes higher TP concentrations in the water column. Subsequently, this may lead to a higher phytoplankton biomass in warmer lakes than in cooler lakes with similar external nutrient loadings. 5. Our results indicate that climate effects on the competitive balance between submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton are not straightforward.     

Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites: implications for convergence across northern latitudes

Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high‐latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high‐latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms.     

Climate change and Saharan dust drive recent cladoceran and primary production changes in remote alpine lakes of Sierra Nevada,Spain

Recent anthropogenic climate change and the exponential increase over the past few decades of Saharan dust deposition, containing ecologically important inputs of phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca), are potentially affecting remote aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we examine changes in cladoceran assemblage composition and chlorophyll‐a concentrations over the past ~150 years from high‐resolution, well‐dated sediment cores retrieved from six remote high mountain lakes in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Southern Spain, a region affected by Saharan dust deposition. In each lake, marked shifts in cladoceran assemblages and chlorophyll‐a concentrations in recent decades indicate a regional‐scale response to climate and Saharan dust deposition. Chlorophyll‐a concentrations have increased since the 1970s, consistent with a response to rising air temperatures and the intensification of atmospheric deposition of Saharan P. Similar shifts in cladoceran taxa across lakes began over a century ago, but have intensified over the past ~50 years, concurrent with trends in regional air temperature, precipitation, and increased Saharan dust deposition. An abrupt increase in the relative abundance of the benthic cladoceran Alona quadrangularis at the expense of Chydorus sphaericus, and a significant increase in Daphnia pulex gr. was a common trend in these softwater lakes. Differences in the magnitude and timing of these changes are likely due to catchment and lake‐specific differences. In contrast with other alpine lakes that are often affected by acid deposition, atmospheric Ca deposition appears to be a significant explanatory factor, among others, for the changes in the lake biota of Sierra Nevada that has not been previously considered. The effects observed in Sierra Nevada are likely occurring in other Mediterranean lake districts, especially in softwater, oligotrophic lakes. The predicted increases in global temperature and Saharan dust deposition in the future will further impact the ecological condition of these ecosystems.     

Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish,the three‐spine stickleback

High‐latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice‐free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life‐history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five‐decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three‐spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state‐space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con‐ and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three‐spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes.     

A comparison of shallow Danish and Canadian lakes and implications of climate change

1. Winter temperatures differ markedly on the Canadian prairies compared with Denmark. Between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2002, average weekly and monthly temperatures did not drop below 0 °C in the vicinity of Silkeborg, Denmark. Over this same time, weekly average temperatures near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, often dropped below −10 °C for 3–5 weeks and the average monthly temperature was below 0 °C for 2–4 months. Accordingly, winter ice conditions in shallow lakes in Canada and Denmark differed considerably. 2. To assess the implications of winter climate for lake biotic structure and function we compared a number of variables that describe the chemistry and biology of shallow Canadian and Danish lakes that had been chosen to have similar morphometries. 3. The Danish lakes had a fourfold higher ratio of chlorophyll‐a: total phosphorus (TP). Zooplankton : phytoplankton carbon was related to TP and fish abundance in Danish lakes but not in Canadian lakes. There was no significant difference in the ratio log total zooplankton biomass : log TP and the Canadian lakes had a significantly higher proportion of cladocerans that were Daphnia. These differences correspond well with the fact that the Danish lakes have more abundant and diverse fish communities than the Canadian lakes. 4. Our results suggest that severe Canadian winters lead to anoxia under ice and more depauperate fish communities, and stronger zooplankton control on phytoplankton in shallow prairie lakes compared with shallow Danish lakes. If climate change leads to warmer winters and a shorter duration of ice cover, we predict that shallow Canadian prairie lakes will experience increased survivorship of planktivores and stronger control of zooplankton. This, in turn, might decrease zooplankton control on phytoplankton, leading to ‘greener’ lakes on the Canadian prairies.     

Limnological and ecological sensitivity of Rwenzori mountain lakes to climate warming

An increasing number of studies forecast that anthropogenic climate change poses serious consequences for the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning of high-elevation mountain lakes, through a series of both direct and indirect effects. The impacts of future climate warming on alpine ecosystems are of particular concern, given that warming is expected to be most pronounced at high elevations around the globe. Here, we evaluate the limnological and ecological sensitivity of high-elevation lakes in the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda-D. R. Congo) to climate change. This is done by comparing the species assemblages of larval chironomid remains deposited recently in lake sediments with those deposited at the base of short cores (dated to within or shortly after the Little Ice Age) in 16 lakes. Chironomid-based reconstructions of mean annual air temperature (MATemp) are made using a variety of inference models (with transfer functions based on weighted averaging, weighted-averaging partial least squares, and a weighted modern analogue technique), and two different calibration data sets, one covering the full regional temperature gradient and one comprising only high-elevation Rwenzori lakes and ponds. The reconstructed historical temperature change ranges between a cooling of −2.03°C and a warming of +3.22°C (with n = 16 lakes × 3 models × 2 calibration data sets). However, excluding the atypical mid-elevation lake Mahoma (2,990 m altitude), we find a three-to-one ratio of cases of inferred warming against inferred cooling, and of the 24 Δ MATemp values exceeding 0.60°C, 23 are positive and only one is negative. Chironomid-inferred temperature changes mostly fall within the error range of the regional temperature inference models. A generalized linear mixed model analysis of the combined result from all lakes (except Mahoma) nevertheless indicates significantly warmer MATemp (on average +0.38 ± 0.11°C) at present compared to between ~85 and ~645 years ago. Inferred temperature changes are independent of whether lakes are located in glaciated or non-glaciated catchments, and of the age of the core base, suggesting that at least part of the signal is due to relatively recent, anthropogenic warming. The direction of faunal change at the lakes in relation to established species–environment relationships suggests that part of the observed shifts in species composition reflect lake-specific evolution in habitat features other than temperature, such as nutrients, pH or oxygen regime, which in our present calibration data set co-vary with temperature to a greater or lesser extent. The fairly uniform and marked historical warming trend in Rwenzori lakes documented by this study highlights their ecological vulnerability and their value as early warning systems for detecting the limnological and ecological effects of global warming.     

Distribution of Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) Head Capsules in Recent Sediments of Canadian Arctic Lakes

Thirty-two taxa of chironomid larvae were collected from the sediments of 50 lakes from across the Canadian Arctic Islands. Most chironomid taxa living in the Arctic have wide distributions, with only one taxon, Abiskomyia, showing a clear geographic limitation in this region. Many of these taxa have habitat preferences, among which lake morphometry, pH, nutrients and temperature are important. Due to the complex environmental patterns in the Arctic, lakes in both the northern and southern portion of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago have warmer temperatures and the chironomid assemblages of these two regions resemble each other more than those of the intervening central islands. Chironomid diversity is lowest in the central arctic islands, primarily Devon and Cornwallis Island, where the combination of low nutrients and cold temperatures provide the most severe environment for chironomid survival.     

Distribution of chironomids (Diptera) in low arctic West Greenland lakes: trophic conditions, temperature and environmental reconstruction

1. Surface sediment samples of subfossil chironomid head capsules from 47 lakes in southern West Greenland were analysed using multivariate numerical methods in order to explore the relationship between chironomid assemblages and selected environmental variables. The study lakes are located along a climate gradient ranging from coastal maritime conditions near the Davis Strait to a continental climate near the margin of the Greenland ice sheet. 2. High‐resolution surface water temperatures were measured through the summer season using automatic data loggers in 21 of the study lakes. The mean July surface water temperature (1999) ranged from 7.3 to 16.5 °C in the data set. 3. In all lakes, a total of 24 chironomid taxa were recorded; Micropsectra, Psectrocladius, Chironomus and Procladius were the dominant genera. There was a strong correlation between the trophic variables [total nitrogen and total phosphorus (TN, TP)] and temperature, and in redundancy analysis (RDA) the three variables explained almost equal significant amounts of variation in the chironomid data (19.8–22.3%). However, temperature lost significant explanatory power when the effect of TN was partialled out in RDA. 4. The lakes were classified using two‐way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN ) into eight groups defined by temperature, trophic variables, salinity (conductivity) and lake‐morphometric data. Fourteen chironomid taxa showed significant differences in percentage abundances among groups, with Heterotrissocladius, Micropsectra, Ablabesmyia and Chironomus as the most robust group‐indicator taxa. Forward selection of taxa in multiple discriminant analysis was used to fit chironomid assemblages into lake groups. Using only eight taxa, 95% of lakes were correctly classified at a second TWINSPAN division level (four groups) and 85% of lakes at a third division level (eight groups). 5. This study showed that there is considerable potential in using subfossil chironomid head capsules as paleoenvironmental indicators in both short‐ and long‐term (down‐core) studies of lake ontogeny and palaeoclimate conditions in West Greenland. However, because of the strong correlation between temperature and trophic variables, a quantitative reconstruction of lake‐ and habitat‐type is recommended, in combination with direct reconstruction of single variables such as temperature.     

Do warmer winters change variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions in Sweden?

In this study, the effect of a warmer winter climate on variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions was examined by using monthly air temperature data from 72 meteorological Swedish sites, ice breakup data from 77 Swedish lakes and monthly data of 17 water chemical variables from 11 nutrient-poor Swedish reference lakes during 1988–2005. The results showed significantly increasing variations of lake ice breakup dates and nitrate concentrations over Sweden along with increasing winter air temperatures. Variability patterns of other water chemical variables were not affected by warmer winters. Nitrate concentrations increased their variability in spring and early summer not only between lakes but also within lakes, which was attributed to a climate-induced increase in spring nitrate concentrations in particular in southern Sweden, while summer nitrate concentrations remained rather constant and low all over Sweden (median 10 μg l⁻¹). Since nitrate concentrations play an important role for primary production, highly varying concentrations will be a challenge for biota to adapt.     

Productivity of high-latitude lakes: climate effect inferred from altitude gradient

Climate change is predicted to be dramatic at high latitudes. Still, climate impact on high latitude lake ecosystems is poorly understood. We studied 15 subarctic lakes located in a climate gradient comprising an air temperature difference of about 6°C. We show that lake water productivity varied by one order of magnitude along the temperature gradient. This variation was mainly caused by variations in the length of the ice‐free period and, more importantly, in the supply of organic carbon and inorganic nutrients, which followed differences in terrestrial vegetation cover along the gradient. The results imply that warming will have rapid effects on the productivity of high latitude lakes, by prolongation of ice‐free periods. However, a more pronounced consequence will be a delayed stimulation of the productivity following upon changes of the lakes terrestrial surroundings and subsequent increasing input of elements that stimulate the production of lake biota.