Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species

Climate change can cause major changes to the dynamics of individual species and to those communities in which they interact. One effect of increasing temperatures is on insect voltinism, with the logical assumption that increases in surface temperatures would permit multivoltine species to increase the number of generations per year. Though insect development is primarily driven by temperature, most multivoltine insect species rely on photoperiodic cues, which do not change from year‐to‐year or in response to climate warming, to initiate diapause. Thus, the relationship between climate change and voltinism could be complex. We use a phenology model for grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), which incorporates temperature‐dependent development and diapause termination, and photoperiod‐dependent diapause induction, to explore historical patterns in year‐to‐year voltinism fluctuations. We then extend this model to predict voltinism under varying scenarios of climate change to show the importance of both the quality and quantity of accumulated heat units. We also illustrate that increases in mean surface temperatures > 2 °C can have dramatic effects on insect voltinism by causing a shift in the ovipositional period that currently is subject to diapause‐inducing photoperiods.     

Differential responses to warming and increased precipitation among three contrasting grasshopper species

We conducted a field manipulation experiment to investigate developmental and demographic responses to warming and increased precipitation in three Inner Mongolian grasshopper species that differ in phenology (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes , a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus , and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax ). Infrared heaters were used for warming the ground surface by 1–2 °C above the ambient condition and periodic irrigations were applied to simulate a 50% increase in annual precipitation. We found that warming advanced the timing for egg hatching and grasshopper eclosion in each of the three species. However, grasshopper diapause and increased precipitation appeared to offset the effect of warming on egg development. Hatching and development were more strongly affected by warming in the mid-season O. asiaticus and the late-season C. fallax relative to the early-season D. barbipes . Warming by ∼1.5 °C advanced the occurrence of the mid-season O. asiaticus by an average of 4.96 days; while warming and increased precipitation interactively affected the occurrence of the late-season C. fallax , which advanced by 5.53 days. Our data and those of others suggest that most grasshopper species in the Inner Mongolian grassland are likely to extend their distribution northward with climate change. However, because of the differential response to warming we demonstrate for these species, the different grasshopper species are predicted to aggregate toward the middle period of the growing season, potentially increasing interspecific competition and grazing pressure on grasslands.     

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.     

民勤荒漠区不同生活型植物物候响应气候变暖的差异

运用1974年以来民勤荒漠区植物物候观测资料和气象观测资料,将22种植物分别按生长类型划分为乔木、灌木和草本植物3种生活型,再按更新芽着生部位将22种植物划分为高位芽植物、地上芽植物和地面芽植物植物3种生活型,分析了按这2种方法划分的不同生活型植物物候响应气候变化的差异.结果表明:1)不论以哪种方法划分的植物生活型,春季物候响应气温变化的敏感程度均大干秋季;2)按生长类型划分的3种生活型植物之间的物候变化差异较按更新芽着生部位划分的3种生活型植物之间的物候变化差异大,主要表现为乔木和灌木的物候差异较大;3)当地植物的生长期长度、乔木的春季物候提前幅度和高位芽植物的春季物候提前幅度大干其他文献报导;4)更新芽着生部位越高,春季物候响应当月和当年气温变暖越敏感,表明在地面以上、乔木高度以内,距地面越高气温对春季物候的影响越显著.     

Size‐based ecological interactions drive food web responses to climate warming

Predicting climate change impacts on animal communities requires knowledge of how physiological effects are mediated by ecological interactions. Food‐dependent growth and within‐species size variation depend on temperature and affect community dynamics through feedbacks between individual performance and population size structure. Still, we know little about how warming affects these feedbacks. Using a dynamic stage‐structured biomass model with food‐, size‐ and temperature‐dependent life history processes, we analyse how temperature affects coexistence, stability and size structure in a tri‐trophic food chain, and find that warming effects on community stability depend on ecological interactions. Predator biomass densities generally decline with warming – gradually or through collapses – depending on which consumer life stage predators feed on. Collapses occur when warming induces alternative stable states via Allee effects. This suggests that predator persistence in warmer climates may be lower than previously acknowledged and that effects of warming on food web stability largely depend on species interactions.     

Insects in a warmer world: ecological, physiological and life-history responses of true bugs (Heteroptera) to climate change

Focusing on the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (Pentatomidae), in central Japan the effects of climate change on true bugs (Insecta: Heteroptera) are reviewed. In the early 1960s, the northern edge of the species's distribution was in Wakayama Prefecture (34.1°N) and distribution was limited by the +5°C coldest month (January) mean temperature isothermal line. By 2000, N. viridula was recorded 70 km further north (in Osaka, 34.7°N). Historical climate data were used to reveal possible causes of the northward range expansion. The increase of mean and lowest winter month temperatures by 1–2°C in Osaka from the 1950s to the 1990s improved potential overwintering conditions for N. viridula. This promoted northward range expansion of the species. In Osaka, adult diapause in N. viridula is induced after mid‐September, much later than in other local seed‐feeding heteropterans. This late diapause induction results in late‐season ineffective reproduction: some females start oviposition in autumn when the progeny have no chance of attaining adulthood and surviving winter. Both reproductive adults and the progeny die. A period from mid‐September to early November represents a phenological mismatch: diapause is not yet induced in all adults, but it is already too late to start reproduction. Females that do not start reproduction but enter diapause in September have reduced postdiapause reproductive performance: they live for a shorter period, have a shorter period of oviposition and produce fewer eggs in smaller egg masses compared with females that emerge and enter diapause later in autumn. To some extent, N. viridula remains maladapted to Osaka environmental conditions. Ecological perspectives on establishment in recently colonized areas are discussed. A review of available data suggests that terrestrial and aquatic Heteroptera species respond to climate change by shifting their distribution ranges, changing abundance, phenology, voltinism, physiology, behaviour, and community structure. Expected responses of Heteroptera to further climate warming are discussed under scenarios of slight (<2°C) and substantial (>2°C) temperature increase.     

Combined effects of climate and biotic interactions on the elevational range of a phytophagous insect

1. The ranges of many species have expanded in cool regions but contracted at warm margins in response to recent climate warming, but the mechanisms behind such changes remain unclear. Particular debate concerns the roles of direct climatic limitation vs. the effects of interacting species in explaining the location of low latitude or low elevation range margins. 2. The mountains of the Sierra de Guadarrama (central Spain) include both cool and warm range margins for the black-veined white butterfly, Aporia crataegi, which has disappeared from low elevations since the 1970s without colonizing the highest elevations. 3. We found that the current upper elevation limit to A. crataegi's distribution coincided closely with that of its host plants, but that the species was absent from elevations below 900 m, even where host plants were present. The density of A. crataegi per host plant increased with elevation, but overall abundance of the species declined at high elevations where host plants were rare. 4. The flight period of A. crataegi was later at higher elevations, meaning that butterflies in higher populations flew at hotter times of year; nevertheless, daytime temperatures for the month of peak flight decreased by 6.2 degrees C per 1 km increase in elevation. 5. At higher elevations A. crataegi eggs were laid on the south side of host plants (expected to correspond to hotter microclimates), whereas at lower sites the (cooler) north side of plants was selected. Field transplant experiments showed that egg survival increased with elevation. 6. Climatic limitation is the most likely explanation for the low elevation range margin of A. crataegi, whereas the absence of host plants from high elevations sets the upper limit. This contrasts with the frequent assumption that biotic interactions typically determine warm range margins, and thermal limitation cool margins. 7. Studies that have modelled distribution changes in response to climate change may have underestimated declines for many specialist species, because range contractions will be exacerbated by mismatch between the future distribution of suitable climate space and the availability of resources such as host plants.     

Climate warming causes photobiont degradation and carbon starvation in a boreal climate sentinel lichen

Premise

The long-term potential for acclimation by lichens to changing climates is poorly known, despite their prominent roles in forested ecosystems. Although often considered “extremophiles,” lichens may not readily acclimate to novel climates well beyond historical norms. In a previous study (Smith et al., 2018), Evernia mesomorpha transplants in a whole-ecosystem climate change experiment showed drastic mass loss after 1 yr of warming and drying; however, the causes of this mass loss were not addressed.

Methods

We examined the causes of this warming-induced mass loss by measuring physiological, functional, and reproductive attributes of lichen transplants.

Results

Severe loss of mass and physiological function occurred above +2°C of experimental warming. Loss of algal symbionts (“bleaching”) and turnover in algal community compositions increased with temperature and were the clearest impacts of experimental warming. Enhanced CO₂ had no significant physiological or symbiont composition effects. The functional loss of algal photobionts led to significant loss of mass and specific thallus mass (STM), which in turn reduced water-holding capacity (WHC). Although algal genotypes remained detectable in thalli exposed to higher stress, within-thallus photobiont communities shifted in composition toward greater diversity.

Conclusions

The strong negative impacts of warming and/or lower humidity on Evernia mesomorpha were driven by a loss of photobiont activity. Analogous to the effects of climate change on corals, the balance of symbiont carbon metabolism in lichens is central to their resilience to changing conditions.     

Phenological delay despite warming in wood frog Rana sylvatica reproductive timing: a 20-year study

Across all taxa, amphibians exhibit some of the strongest phenological shifts in response to climate change. As climates warm, amphibians and other animals are expected to breed earlier in response to temperature cues. However, if species use fixed cues such as daylight, their breeding timing might remain fixed, potentially creating disconnects between their life history and environmental conditions. Wood frogs Rana sylvatica are a cold-adapted species that reproduce in early spring, immediately after breeding ponds are free of ice. We used long-term surveys of wood frog oviposition timing in 64 breeding ponds over 20 yr to show that, despite experiencing a warming of 0.29°C per decade in annual temperature, wood frog breeding phenology has shifted later by 2.8 d since 2000 (1.4 d per decade; 4.8 d per °C). This counterintuitive pattern is likely the result of changes in the timing of snowpack accumulation and melting. Finally, we used relationships between climate and oviposition between 2000 and 2018 to hindcast oviposition dates from climate records to model longer-term trends since 1980. Our study indicates that species can respond to fine-grained seasonal climate heterogeneity within years that is not apparent or counterintuitive when related to annual trends across years.     

Centennial decline in North Sea water clarity causes strong delay in phytoplankton bloom timing

With climate warming, a widespread expectation is that events in spring, such as flowering, bird migrations, and insect bursts, will occur earlier because of increasing temperature. At high latitudes, increased ocean temperature is suggested to advance the spring phytoplankton bloom due to earlier stabilization of the water column. However, climate warming is also expected to cause browning in lakes and rivers due to increases in terrestrial greening, ultimately reducing water clarity in coastal areas where freshwater drain. In shallow areas, decreased retention of sediments on the seabed will add to this effect. Both browning and resuspension of sediments imply a reduction of the euphotic zone and Sverdrup's critical depth leading to a delay in the spring bloom, counteracting the effect of increasing temperature. Here, we provide evidence that such a transparency reduction has already taken place in both the deep and shallow areas of the North Sea during the 20th century. A sensitivity analysis using a water column model suggests that the reduced transparency might have caused up to 3 weeks delay in the spring bloom over the last century. This delay stands in contrast to the earlier bloom onset expected from global warming, thus highlighting the importance of including changing water transparency in analyses of phytoplankton phenology and primary production. This appears to be of particular relevance for coastal waters, where increased concentrations of absorbing and scattering substances (sediments, dissolved organic matter) have been suggested to lead to coastal darkening.     

Adult activity and temperature preference drives region-wide damselfly (Zygoptera) distributions under a warming climate

We analysed a recently completed statewide odonate Atlas using multivariate linear models. Within a phylogenetically explicit framework, we developed a suite of data-derived traits to assess the mechanistic distributional drivers of 59 species of damselflies in New York State (NYS). We found that length of the flight season (adult breeding activity period) mediated by thermal preference drives regional distributions at broad (10⁵ km²) scales. Species that had longer adult flight periods, in conjunction with longer growing seasons, had significantly wider distributions. These intrinsic traits shape species'' responses to changing climates and the mechanisms behind such range shifts are fitness-based metapopulation processes that adjust phenology to the prevailing habitat and climate regime through a photoperiod filter.     

河北省草本植物物候特征及其对气候变暖的响应

以1981—2006年河北省8个国家农业气象观测站的草本植物物候观测资料和47个气象站的地面观测资料为基础,运用EOF和REOF等统计学方法,研究了河北省草本植物物候期的变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应。结果表明:河北省草本植物展叶始期总体呈提前趋势,其中东部沿海平原提前趋势最大,中南部平原次之,西北部山区最小;黄枯始期主要表现出推迟趋势,生长季长度以延长趋势为主;春季气温对展叶始期的影响显著,河北省春季气温上升1℃,草本植物展叶始期提前4.1d;各站点生长季倾向率与年均温倾向率呈正相关,即年均温升幅大的站点,生长季延长的幅度也较大;草本植物物候变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应与木本植物基本一致,研究结果对丰富河北省物候与气候变化关系研究具有一定意义。     

Predicted warming and browning affect timing and magnitude of plankton phenological events in lakes: a mesocosm study

1. Aquatic ecosystems in Northern Europe are expected to face increases in temperature and water colour (TB) in future. While effects of these factors have been studied separately, it is unknown whether and how a combination of them might affect phenological events and trophic interactions. 2. In a mesocosm study, we combined both factors to create conditions expected to arise during the coming century. We focused on quantifying effects on timing and magnitude of plankton spring phenological events and identifying possible mismatches between resources (phytoplankton) and consumers (zooplankton). 3. We found that the increases in TB had important effects on timing and abundance of different plankton groups. While increased temperature led to an earlier peak in phytoplankton and zooplankton and a change in the relative timing of different zooplankton groups, increased water colour reduced chlorophyll‐a concentrations. 4. Increased TB together benefitted cladocerans and calanoid copepods and led to stronger top‐down control of algae by zooplankton. There was no sign of a mismatch between primary producers and grazers as reported from other studies. 5. Our results point towards an earlier onset of plankton spring growth in shallow lakes in future with a stronger top‐down control of phytoplankton by zooplankton grazers.     

Multi‐scale responses to warming in an experimental insect metacommunity

In metacommunities, diversity is the product of species interactions at the local scale and dispersal between habitat patches at the regional scale. Although warming can alter both species interactions and dispersal, the combined effects of warming on these two processes remains uncertain. To determine the independent and interactive effects of warming‐induced changes to local species interactions and dispersal, we constructed experimental metacommunities consisting of enclosed milkweed patches seeded with five herbivorous milkweed specialist insect species. We treated metacommunities with two levels of warming (unwarmed and warmed) and three levels of connectivity (isolated, low connectivity, high connectivity). Based on metabolic theory, we predicted that if plant resources were limited, warming would accelerate resource drawdown, causing local insect declines and increasing both insect dispersal and the importance of connectivity to neighboring patches for insect persistence. Conversely, given abundant resources, warming could have positive local effects on insects, and the risk of traversing a corridor to reach a neighboring patch could outweigh the benefits of additional resources. We found support for the latter scenario. Neither resource drawdown nor the weak insect‐insect associations in our system were affected by warming, and most insect species did better locally in warmed conditions and had dispersal responses that were unchanged or indirectly affected by warming. Dispersal across the matrix posed a species‐specific risk that led to declines in two species in connected metacommunities. Combined, this scaled up to cause an interactive effect of warming and connectivity on diversity, with unwarmed metacommunities with low connectivity incurring the most rapid declines in diversity. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of integrating the complex outcomes of species interactions and spatial structure in understanding community response to climate change.     

Phylogenetic conservatism and trait correlates of spring phenological responses to climate change in northeast China

Climate change has resulted in major changes in plant phenology across the globe that includes leaf‐out date and flowering time. The ability of species to respond to climate change, in part, depends on their response to climate as a phenological cue in general. Species that are not phenologically responsive may suffer in the face of continued climate change. Comparative studies of phenology have found phylogeny to be a reliable predictor of mean leaf‐out date and flowering time at both the local and global scales. This is less true for flowering time response (i.e., the correlation between phenological timing and climate factors), while no study to date has explored whether the response of leaf‐out date to climate factors exhibits phylogenetic signal. We used a 52‐year observational phenological dataset for 52 woody species from the Forest Botanical Garden of Heilongjiang Province, China, to test phylogenetic signal in leaf‐out date and flowering time, as well as, the response of these two phenological traits to both temperature and winter precipitation. Leaf‐out date and flowering time were significantly responsive to temperature for most species, advancing, on average, 3.11 and 2.87 day/°C, respectively. Both leaf‐out and flowering, and their responses to temperature exhibited significant phylogenetic signals. The response of leaf‐out date to precipitation exhibited no phylogenetic signal, while flowering time response to precipitation did. Native species tended to have a weaker flowering response to temperature than non‐native species. Earlier leaf‐out species tended to have a greater response to winter precipitation. This study is the first to assess phylogenetic signal of leaf‐out response to climate change, which suggests, that climate change has the potential to shape the plant communities, not only through flowering sensitivity, but also through leaf‐out sensitivity.     

Species-specific flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and drought alter herbaceous plant species overlap in a temperate–boreal forest community

Background and AimsWarmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to continue to occur as the climate changes. How these changes will impact the flowering phenology of herbaceous perennials in northern forests is poorly understood but could have consequences for forest functioning and species interactions. Here, we examine the flowering phenology responses of five herbaceous perennials to experimental warming and reduced summer rainfall over 3 years.MethodsThis study is part of the B4WarmED experiment located at two sites in northern Minnesota, USA. Three levels of warming (ambient, +1.6 °C and +3.1 °C) were crossed with two rainfall manipulations (ambient and 27 % reduced growing season rainfall).Key ResultsWe observed species-specific responses to the experimental treatments. Warming alone advanced flowering for four species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species showed the strongest advance of flowering to warming. Reduced rainfall alone advanced flowering for one autumn blooming species and delayed flowering for the other, with no significant impact on the three early blooming species. Only one species, Solidago spp., showed an interactive response to warming and rainfall manipulation by advancing in +1.6 °C warming (regardless of rainfall manipulation) but not advancing in the warmest, driest treatment. Species-specific responses led to changes in temporal overlap between species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species diverged significantly in their flowering timing. In ambient conditions, these two species flowered within the same week. In the warmest, driest treatment, flowering occurred over a month apart.ConclusionsHerbaceous species may differ in how they respond to future climate conditions. Changes to phenology may lead to fewer resources for insects or a mismatch between plants and pollinators.     

Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean

Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice‐obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice‐intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species‐specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice‐obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea‐ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice‐obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice‐intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models.     

Elevational differences in developmental plasticity determine phenological responses of grasshoppers to recent climate warming

Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change.     

Sensitivity and responses of diatoms to climate warming in lakes heavily influenced by humans

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