Are polar bear habitat resource selection functions developed from 1985–1995 data still useful?

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Projected Polar Bear Sea Ice Habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Background

Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 – 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.

Principal Findings

Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21^st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2–5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.

Conclusions/Significance

Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.     

Recent observations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea

Intraspecific killing has been reported among polar bears (Ursus maritimus), brown bears (U. arctos), and black bears (U. americanus). Although cannibalism is one motivation for such killings, the ecological factors mediating such events are poorly understood. Between 24 January and 10 April 2004, we confirmed three instances of intraspecific predation and cannibalism in the Beaufort Sea. One of these, the first of this type ever reported for polar bears, was a parturient female killed at her maternal den. The predating bear was hunting in a known maternal denning area and apparently discovered the den by scent. A second predation event involved an adult female and cub recently emerged from their den, and the third involved a yearling male. During 24 years of research on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea region of northern Alaska and 34 years in northwestern Canada, we have not seen other incidents of polar bears stalking, killing, and eating other polar bears. We hypothesize that nutritional stresses related to the longer ice-free seasons that have occurred in the Beaufort Sea in recent years may have led to the cannibalism incidents we observed in 2004.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Effects of sea ice extent and food availability on spatial and temporal distribution of polar bears during the fall open-water period in the Southern Beaufort Sea

We investigated the relationship between sea ice conditions, food availability, and the fall distribution of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in terrestrial habitats of the Southern Beaufort Sea via weekly aerial surveys in 2000–2005. Aerial surveys were conducted weekly during September and October along the Southern Beaufort Sea coastline and barrier islands between Barrow and the Canadian border to determine polar bear density on land. The number of bears on land both within and among years increased when sea-ice was retreated furthest from the shore. However, spatial distribution also appeared to be related to the availability of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) carcasses and the density of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) in offshore waters. Our results suggest that long-term reductions in sea-ice could result in an increasing proportion of the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population coming on land during the fall open-water period and an increase in the amount of time individual bears spend on land.     

Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index of ecosystem productivity

The effects of declining Arctic sea ice on local ecosystem productivity are not well understood but have been shown to vary inter‐specifically, spatially, and temporally. Because marine mammals occupy upper trophic levels in Arctic food webs, they may be useful indicators for understanding variation in ecosystem productivity. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are apex predators that primarily consume benthic and pelagic‐feeding ice‐associated seals. As such, their productivity integrates sea ice conditions and the ecosystem supporting them. Declining sea ice availability has been linked to negative population effects for polar bears but does not fully explain observed population changes. We examined relationships between spring foraging success of polar bears and sea ice conditions, prey productivity, and general patterns of ecosystem productivity in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas (CSs). Fasting status (≥7 days) was estimated using serum urea and creatinine levels of 1,448 samples collected from 1,177 adult and subadult bears across three subpopulations. Fasting increased in the Beaufort Sea between 1983–1999 and 2000–2016 and was related to an index of ringed seal body condition. This change was concurrent with declines in body condition of polar bears and observed changes in the diet, condition and/or reproduction of four other vertebrate consumers within the food chain. In contrast, fasting declined in CS polar bears between periods and was less common than in the two Beaufort Sea subpopulations consistent with studies demonstrating higher primary productivity and maintenance or improved body condition in polar bears, ringed seals, and bearded seals despite recent sea ice loss in this region. Consistency between regional and temporal variation in spring polar bear fasting and food web productivity suggests that polar bears may be a useful indicator species. Furthermore, our results suggest that spatial and temporal ecological variation is important in affecting upper trophic‐level productivity in these marine ecosystems.     

Sea ice resource selection models for polar bears in the Barents Sea subpopulation

The extent, thickness and age of Arctic sea ice has dramatically declined since the late 1990s, and these trends are predicted to continue. Exploring the habitat use of sea‐ice‐dependent species can help us understand which resources they use and how their distribution responds to a changing environment. The goal of this study was to develop predictive models of the habitat use of an Arctic apex predator. Polar bear Ursus maritimus habitat use in the Barents Sea subpopulation was modelled with seasonal resource selection functions (RSFs) using satellite‐linked telemetry data from 294 collars deployed on female polar bears between 1991 and 2015. Polar bears selected habitat in the Marginal Ice Zone, with a preference for intermediate sea ice concentrations (40–80%). They spent most time in areas with relatively short travel distances to 15 or 75% ice concentration, and during spring and autumn they exhibited a preference for sea ice areas over the continental shelf or over shallower bathymetry). Predictions of the distribution of polar bears in the Barents Sea area can be made for specific sea ice scenarios using these models. Two such predictive distribution maps based on the autumn seasonal model were made and validated against two independent polar bear survey datasets collected in August 2004 and August 2015. The distribution of optimal polar bear habitat has shifted strongly northwards in all seasons of the year during the 25 yr study period.     

Consequences of long-distance swimming and travel over deep-water pack ice for a female polar bear during a year of extreme sea ice retreat

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) prefer to live on Arctic sea ice but may swim between ice floes or between sea ice and land. Although anecdotal observations suggest that polar bears are capable of swimming long distances, no data have been available to describe in detail long distance swimming events or the physiological and reproductive consequences of such behavior. Between an initial capture in late August and a recapture in late October 2008, a radio-collared adult female polar bear in the Beaufort Sea made a continuous swim of 687 km over 9 days and then intermittently swam and walked on the sea ice surface an additional 1,800 km. Measures of movement rate, hourly activity, and subcutaneous and external temperature revealed distinct profiles of swimming and walking. Between captures, this polar bear lost 22% of her body mass and her yearling cub. The extraordinary long distance swimming ability of polar bears, which we confirm here, may help them cope with reduced Arctic sea ice. Our observation, however, indicates that long distance swimming in Arctic waters, and travel over deep water pack ice, may result in high energetic costs and compromise reproductive fitness.     

Quantitative Support for a Subjective Fatness Index for Immobilized Polar Bears

ABSTRACT Adequate stores of body fat are essential for survival and reproduction of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). However, polar bear body fat levels can be difficult to quantify in the field. For >30 years, biologists have subjectively estimated relative fatness of immobilized polar bears by assigning individuals a rating from 1 to 5, with 1 being leanest and 5 most obese. Although previous studies suggested this fatness index (FI) rating accurately reflects large-scale differences in body condition, its relationship to more quantitative measures of condition has not been explored. We compared the FI rating of individual polar bears in western Hudson Bay and the Beaufort Sea to 2 quantitative measures of body condition: the Quetelet Index (ratio of mass to length²) and the relative lipid content of adipose tissue. We found a significant relationship between FI rating and both Quetelet Index values and adipose lipid content. Our data demonstrate that the FI rating accurately reflects overall body condition, regardless of polar bear age, sex, or nutritional phase. We suggest that continued field use of the FI rating could provide valuable information on ecological effects of large-scale environmental change on polar bear populations.     

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice‐free ecosystem. As ice‐adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food‐web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska''s SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite‐telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.     

Increased Arctic sea ice drift alters adult female polar bear movements and energetics

Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio‐tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987–1998 and 1999–2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%–9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%–8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%–3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1–3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic.     

Habitat degradation affects the summer activity of polar bears

Understanding behavioral responses of species to environmental change is critical to forecasting population-level effects. Although climate change is significantly impacting species’ distributions, few studies have examined associated changes in behavior. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations have varied in their near-term responses to sea ice decline. We examined behavioral responses of two adjacent subpopulations to changes in habitat availability during the annual sea ice minimum using activity data. Location and activity sensor data collected from 1989 to 2014 for 202 adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) subpopulations were used to compare activity in three habitat types varying in prey availability: (1) land; (2) ice over shallow, biologically productive waters; and (3) ice over deeper, less productive waters. Bears varied activity across and within habitats with the highest activity at 50–75% sea ice concentration over shallow waters. On land, SB bears exhibited variable but relatively high activity associated with the use of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale carcasses, whereas CS bears exhibited low activity consistent with minimal feeding. Both subpopulations had fewer observations in their preferred shallow-water sea ice habitats in recent years, corresponding with declines in availability of this substrate. The substantially higher use of marginal habitats by SB bears is an additional mechanism potentially explaining why this subpopulation has experienced negative effects of sea ice loss compared to the still-productive CS subpopulation. Variability in activity among, and within, habitats suggests that bears alter their behavior in response to habitat conditions, presumably in an attempt to balance prey availability with energy costs.     

Microsatellite analysis of population structure in Canadian polar bears

Attempts to study the genetic population structure of large mammals are often hampered by the low levels of genetic variation observed in these species. Polar bears have particularly low levels of genetic variation with the result that their genetic population structure has been intractable. We describe the use of eight hypervariable microsatellite loci to study the genetic relationships between four Canadian polar bear populations: the northern Beaufort Sea, southern Beaufort Sea, western Hudson Bay, and Davis Strait - Labrador Sea. These markers detected considerable genetic variation, with average heterozygosity near 60% within each population. Interpopulation differences in allele frequency distribution were significant between all pairs of populations, including two adjacent populations in the Beaufort Sea. Measures of genetic distance reflect the geographic distribution of populations, but also suggest patterns of gene flow which are not obvious from geography and may reflect movement patterns of these animals. Distribution of variation is sufficiently different between the Beaufort Sea populations and the two more eastern ones that the region of origin for a given sample can be predicted based on its expected genotype frequency using an assignment test. These data indicate that gene flow between local populations is restricted despite the long-distance seasonal movements undertaken by polar bears.     

Multi‐temporal factors influence predation for polar bears in a changing climate

Predation is an ecological interaction influenced by abiotic and biotic factors acting on multiple temporal scales, yet multi‐temporal comparisons are rare in empirical studies. For polar bears Ursus maritimus, the physical configuration of the habitat and conditions in which seals are hunted may change on intra‐ and inter‐seasonal scales. Additionally, while the effects of climate change on polar bears have focused on linking reductions in sea ice to body condition and survival, the potential changes to on‐ice hunting conditions have not been examined. Employing observational counts of seals killed by polar bears between early‐April and late‐May 1985–2011 (n = 650), we modelled the likelihood of predation events in the Beaufort Sea, Canada at multi‐temporal scales. We used the top model to estimate the expected kill rate of seals in the springs of 1985–1986 and 2005–2006 and integrated the result with fasting rates derived from physiological markers in blood samples. A log‐likelihood ratio test suggested a multi‐temporal approach fit the seal kill data better than any single scale alone. Predation events were influenced by ringed seal Pusa hispida reproduction and haul‐out behaviour, regional sea ice concentration and the phase of climatic indices. The expected kill rate from the top predation model and the estimated mean biomass of seal kills were significant predictors of polar bear fasting rates. Results suggest that 50% less seal biomass was killed in 2005–2006 than in 1985–1986, which correlates with a significant increase in the frequency of polar bears in a fasting state. We propose that the documented changes in polar bear fasting rates between 1985–1986 and 2005–2006 are due to a complex set of abiotic and biotic factors including underlying prey dynamics, rather than a single‐scale environmental correlation.     

Morbillivirus and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Toxoplasma</Emphasis> Exposure and Association with Hematological Parameters for Southern Beaufort Sea Polar Bears: Potential Response to Infectious Agents in a Sentinel Species

Arctic temperatures are increasing in response to greenhouse gas forcing and polar bears have already responded to changing conditions. Declines in body stature and vital rates have been linked to warming-induced loss of sea-ice. As food webs change and human activities respond to a milder Arctic, exposure of polar bears and other arctic marine organisms to infectious agents may increase. Because of the polar bear’s status as arctic ecosystem sentinel, polar bear health could provide an index of changing pathogen occurrence throughout the Arctic, however, exposure and monitoring protocols have yet to be established. We examine prevalence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii, and four morbilliviruses (canine distemper [CDV], phocine distemper [PDV], dolphin morbillivirus [DMV], porpoise morbillivirus [PMV]) including risk factors for exposure. We also examine the relationships between antibody levels and hematologic values established in the previous companion article. Antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii and morbilliviruses were found in both sample years. We found a significant inverse relationship between CDV titer and total leukocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, and eosinophils, and a significant positive relationship between eosinophils and Toxoplasma gondii antibodies. Morbilliviral prevalence varied significantly among age cohorts, with 1–2 year olds least likely to be seropositive and bears aged 5–7 most likely. Data suggest that the presence of CDV and Toxoplasma gondii antibodies is associated with polar bear hematologic values. We conclude that exposure to CDV-like antigen is not randomly distributed among age classes and suggest that differing behaviors among life history stages may drive probability of specific antibody presence.     

Ringed seal (Pusa hispida) tooth annuli as an index of reproduction in the Beaufort Sea

Multi-decadal time-series of biological indices that reflect the state of a population are rare in ecological studies, but invaluable for assessing environmental regulation of population dynamics. We utilized canine teeth extracted from ringed seals (Pusa hispida) killed by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea, Canada, in 1985–2011, to obtain widths of annual growth layers in the cementum. Canine teeth for 75 individuals were measured and compared across years using a proportional width index (PWI) spanning 1965–2007. PWI was positively correlated with ringed seal ovulation rate obtained independently from other studies and was significantly lower than normal during ringed seal reproductive declines in 1974–75, 1984–87, 1991–93, and 2004–05, suggesting that PWI reflects ringed seal reproductive capacity. The PWI was also examined against climatic and sea ice factors to assess environmental regulation of ringed seal reproduction. Results suggest that ringed seals benefit from cyclonic circulation regimes in the Beaufort Sea, and an earlier breakup of sea ice in summer that may positively influence the quality and quantity of food during the open water season. Results highlight how cementum annuli in the canine teeth of ringed seals can provide an index of body state and linkages to sea ice conditions. Canine teeth from ringed seals can function as a means to monitor the effects of past Arctic marine variability on area-specific populations for which there are few independent empirical data.     

Fasting physiology of polar bears in relation to environmental change and breeding behavior in the Beaufort Sea

We examined the use of the ratio of serum urea to serum creatinine as a physiological biomarker of fasting to monitor temporal patterns in the feeding ecology of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Blood was collected from 436 polar bears in the eastern Beaufort Sea during April and May of 1985–1986 and 2005–2006. The proportions of polar bears fasting were 9.6% in 1985, 10.5% in 1986, 21.4% in 2005, and 29.3% in 2006. We used stepwise logistic regression analysis to evaluate factors that could influence the binary response variable of fasting or not fasting. Significant predictor variables of fasting were: the 2005 and 2006 capture years, solitary adult male bears, and adult male bears that were accompanying an estrous female. The increased number of polar bears in a physiological fasting state from all sex, age, and reproductive classes in 2005 and 2006 corresponded with broad scale changes in Arctic sea ice composition, which may have affected prey availability. The higher proportion of adult males fasting from all years was attributed to spring breeding behavior.     

Hematology of Southern Beaufort Sea Polar Bears (2005–2007): Biomarker for an Arctic Ecosystem Health Sentinel

Arctic temperatures are increasing in response to greenhouse gas forcing and polar bears have already responded to changing conditions. Declines in body stature and vital rates have been linked to warming-induced loss of sea-ice. As food webs change and human activities respond to a milder Arctic, exposure of polar bears and other arctic marine organisms to infectious agents may increase. Because of the polar bear’s status as arctic ecosystem sentinel, polar bear health could provide an index of changing pathogen occurrence throughout the Arctic, however, exposure and monitoring protocols have yet to be established. We examine prevalence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii, and four morbilliviruses (canine distemper [CDV], phocine distemper [PDV], dolphin morbillivirus [DMV], porpoise morbillivirus [PMV]) including risk factors for exposure. We also examine the relationships between antibody levels and hematologic values established in the previous companion article. Antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii and morbilliviruses were found in both sample years. We found a significant inverse relationship between CDV titer and total leukocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, and eosinophils, and a significant positive relationship between eosinophils and Toxoplasma gondii antibodies. Morbilliviral prevalence varied significantly among age cohorts, with 1–2 year olds least likely to be seropositive and bears aged 5–7 most likely. Data suggest that the presence of CDV and Toxoplasma gondii antibodies is associated with polar bear hematologic values. We conclude that exposure to CDV-like antigen is not randomly distributed among age classes and suggest that differing behaviors among life history stages may drive probability of specific antibody presence.     

Gene flow on ice: the role of sea ice and whaling in shaping Holarctic genetic diversity and population differentiation in bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus)

Sea ice is believed to be a major factor shaping gene flow for polar marine organisms, but it remains unclear to what extent it represents a true barrier to dispersal for arctic cetaceans. Bowhead whales are highly adapted to polar sea ice and were targeted by commercial whalers throughout Arctic and subarctic seas for at least four centuries, resulting in severe reductions in most areas. Both changing ice conditions and reductions due to whaling may have affected geographic distribution and genetic diversity throughout their range, but little is known about range‐wide genetic structure or whether it differed in the past. This study represents the first examination of genetic diversity and differentiation across all five putative stocks, including Baffin Bay‐Davis Strait, Hudson Bay‐Foxe Basin, Bering‐Beaufort‐Chukchi, Okhotsk, and Spitsbergen. We also utilized ancient specimens from Prince Regent Inlet (PRI) in the Canadian Arctic and compared them with modern stocks. Results from analysis of molecular variance and demographic simulations are consistent with recent and high gene flow between Atlantic and Pacific stocks in the recent past. Significant genetic differences between ancient and modern populations suggest PRI harbored unique maternal lineages in the past that have been recently lost, possibly due to loss of habitat during the Little Ice Age and/or whaling. Unexpectedly, samples from this location show a closer genetic relationship with modern Pacific stocks than Atlantic, supporting high gene flow between the central Canadian Arctic and Beaufort Sea over the past millennium despite extremely heavy ice cover over much of this period.     

Could brown bears (Ursus arctos) have survived in Ireland during the Last Glacial Maximum?

Brown bears are recorded from Ireland during both the Late Pleistocene and early–mid Holocene. Although most of the Irish landmass was covered by an ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Irish brown bears are known to have hybridized with polar bears during the Late Pleistocene, and it is suggested that the Irish brown bear population did not become extinct but instead persisted in situ through the LGM in a southwestern ice-free refugium. We use historical population modelling to demonstrate that brown bears are highly unlikely to have survived through the LGM in Ireland under any combination of life-history parameters shown by living bear populations, but instead would have rapidly become extinct following advance of the British–Irish ice sheet, and probably recolonized Ireland during the end-Pleistocene Woodgrange Interstadial from a closely related nearby source population. The time available for brown bear–polar bear hybridization was therefore restricted to narrow periods at the beginning or end of the LGM. Brown bears would have been extremely vulnerable to extinction in Quaternary habitat refugia and required areas substantially larger than southwestern Ireland to survive adverse glacial conditions.     

Effects of climate warming on polar bears: a review of the evidence

Climate warming is causing unidirectional changes to annual patterns of sea ice distribution, structure, and freeze‐up. We summarize evidence that documents how loss of sea ice, the primary habitat of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), negatively affects their long‐term survival. To maintain viable subpopulations, polar bears depend on sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals for long enough each year to accumulate sufficient energy (fat) to survive periods when seals are unavailable. Less time to access to prey, because of progressively earlier breakup in spring, when newly weaned ringed seal (Pusa hispida) young are available, results in longer periods of fasting, lower body condition, decreased access to denning areas, fewer and smaller cubs, lower survival of cubs as well as bears of other age classes and, finally, subpopulation decline toward eventual extirpation. The chronology of climate‐driven changes will vary between subpopulations, with quantifiable negative effects being documented first in the more southerly subpopulations, such as those in Hudson Bay or the southern Beaufort Sea. As the bears' body condition declines, more seek alternate food resources so the frequency of conflicts between bears and humans increases. In the most northerly areas, thick multiyear ice, through which little light penetrates to stimulate biological growth on the underside, will be replaced by annual ice, which facilitates greater productivity and may create habitat more favorable to polar bears over continental shelf areas in the short term. If the climate continues to warm and eliminate sea ice as predicted, polar bears will largely disappear from the southern portions of their range by mid‐century. They may persist in the northern Canadian Arctic Islands and northern Greenland for the foreseeable future, but their long‐term viability, with a much reduced global population size in a remnant of their former range, is uncertain.