Determining fine‐scale migratory connectivity and habitat selection for a migratory songbird by using new GPS technology

Migratory aerial insectivores are among the fastest declining avian groups, but our understanding of these trends has been limited by poor knowledge of migratory connectivity and the identification of critical habitat across the vast distances they travel annually. Using new, archival GPS loggers, we tracked individual purple martins Progne subis from breeding colonies across North America to determine precise (< > 10 m) locations of migratory and overwintering roost locations in South America and to test hypotheses for fine‐scale migratory connectivity and habitat use. We discovered weak migratory connectivity at the roost scale, and extensive, fine‐scale mixing of birds in the Amazon from distant (> 2000 km) breeding sites, with some individuals sharing the same roosting trees. Despite vast tracts of contiguous forest in this region, birds occupied a much more limited habitat, with most (56%) roosts occurring on small habitat islands that were strongly associated with water. Only 17% of these roosts were in current protected areas. These data reflect a critical advance in our ability to remotely determine precise migratory connectivity and habitat selection across vast spatial scales, enhancing our understanding of population dynamics and enabling more effective conservation of species at risk.     

Functional differences between summer and winter season rain assessed with MODIS‐derived phenology in a semi‐arid region

Questions: We asked several linked questions about phenology and precipitation relationships at local, landscape, and regional spatial scales within individual seasons, between seasons, and between year temporal scales. (1) How do winter and summer phenological patterns vary in response to total seasonal rainfall? (2) How are phenological rates affected by the previous season rainfall? (3) How does phenological variability differ at landscape and regional spatial scales and at season and inter‐annual temporal scales? Location: Southern Arizona, USA. Methods: We compared satellite‐derived phenological variation between 38 distinct 625‐km² landscapes distributed in the northern Sonoran Desert region from 2000 to 2007. Regression analyses were used to identify relationships between landscape phenology dynamics in response to precipitation variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Results: While both summer and winter seasons show increases of peak greenness and peak growth with more precipitation, the timing of peak growth was advanced with more precipitation in winter, while the timing of peak greenness was advanced with more precipitation in summer. Surprisingly, summer maximum growth was negatively affected by winter precipitation. The spatial variations between summer and winter phenology were similar in magnitude and response. Larger‐scale spatial and temporal variation showed strong differences in precipitation patterns; however the magnitudes of phenological spatial variability in these two seasons were similar. Conclusions: Vegetation patterns were clearly coupled to precipitation variability, with distinct responses at alternative spatial and temporal scales. Disaggregating vegetation into phenological variation, spanning value, timing, and integrated components revealed substantial complexity in precipitation‐phenological relationships.     

Differences in spatial synchrony and interspecific concordance inform guild‐level population trends for aerial insectivorous birds

Many animal species exhibit spatiotemporal synchrony in population fluctuations, which may provide crucial information about ecological processes driving population change. We examined spatial synchrony and concordance among population trajectories of five aerial insectivorous bird species: chimney swift Chaetura pelagica, purple martin Progne subis, barn swallow Hirundo rustica, tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor, and northern rough‐winged swallow Stelgidopteryx serripennis. Aerial insectivores have undergone severe guild‐wide declines that were considered more prevalent in northeastern North America. Here, we addressed four general questions including spatial synchrony within species, spatial concordance among species, frequency of declining trends among species, and geographic location of declining trends. We used dynamic factor analysis to identify large‐scale common trends underlying stratum‐specific annual indices for each species, representing population trajectories shared by spatially synchronous populations, from 46 yr of North American Breeding Bird Survey data. Indices were derived from Bayesian hierarchical models with continuous autoregressive spatial structures. Stratum‐level spatial concordance among species was assessed using cross‐correlation analysis. Probability of long‐term declining trends was compared among species using Bayesian generalized linear models. Chimney swifts exhibited declining trends throughout North America, with less severe declines through the industrialized Mid‐Atlantic and Great Lakes regions. Northern rough‐winged swallows exhibited declining trends throughout the west. Spatial concordance among species was limited, the proportion of declining trends varied among species, and contrary to previous reports, declining trends were not more prevalent in the northeast. Purple martins, barn swallows, and tree swallows exhibited synchrony across smaller spatial scales. The extensive within‐species synchrony and limited concordance suggest that population trajectories of these aerial insectivores are responding to large‐scale but complex and species‐ and region‐specific environmental conditions (e.g. climate, land use). A single driver of trends for aerial insectivores as a guild appears unlikely.     

Phenological indices of avian reproduction: cryptic shifts and prediction across large spatial and temporal scales

Climate change‐induced shifts in phenology have important demographic consequences, and are frequently used to assess species' sensitivity to climate change. Therefore, developing accurate phenological predictions is an important step in modeling species' responses to climate change. The ability of such phenological models to predict effects at larger spatial and temporal scales has rarely been assessed. It is also not clear whether the most frequently used phenological index, namely the average date of a phenological event across a population, adequately captures phenological shifts in the distribution of events across the season. We use the long‐tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus (Fig. 1) as a case study to explore these issues. We use an intensive 17‐year local study to model mean breeding date and test the capacity of this local model to predict phenology at larger spatial and temporal scales. We assess whether local models of breeding initiation, termination, and renesting reveal phenological shifts and responses to climate not detected by a standard phenological index, that is, population average lay date. These models take predation timing/intensity into account. The locally‐derived model performs well at predicting phenology at the national scale over several decades, at both high and low temperatures. In the local model, a trend toward warmer Aprils is associated with a significant advance in termination dates, probably in response to phenological shifts in food supply. This results in a 33% reduction in breeding season length over 17 years – a substantial loss of reproductive opportunity that is not detected by the index of population average lay date. We show that standard phenological indices can fail to detect patterns indicative of negative climatic effects, potentially biasing assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. More positively, we demonstrate the potential of detailed local studies for developing broader‐scale predictive models of future phenological shifts.     

Weather conditions affect the collective roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis

ABSTRACT

Capsule: Collective roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis was influenced by the weather and the season.

Aims: To document the roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret and assess the relationship between weather conditions and four components of the roosting behaviour including the population size, duration of roost occupancy, the timing of roost gathering and the rate of arrival at roost.

Methods: We recorded the number and arrival times of individuals occupying a communal roost site in northeast Algeria in 2013–2014 between December and April.

Results: There was a seasonal decline of the flock size and rate of arrival and a seasonal increase in the duration of gathering. Weather conditions affected all variables assessed in roosting behaviour such that bad weather lowered the number of individuals in the roost, lengthened the duration and advanced the timing of gathering, and reduced the rate of gathering in the roost.

Conclusion: Our study highlights the importance of weather conditions in shaping the collective roosting behaviour of a gregarious species. Our results suggest that future changes in climatic conditions might influence the collective behaviour of the Cattle Egret in particular and gregarious birds in general.     

Marine influence controls plant phenological dynamics in Mediterranean Mexico

Aims To assess the role of moisture in phenological timing in the mediterranean coastal flora of Baja California, and specifically to assess the role of coastal fog and ocean-derived moisture in plant phenology. Moisture seems to be the primary driver of flowering times and durations at the arid end of the mediterranean-climate region, where rainfall is often sporadic (temperature and day length can be expected to play a much lesser role as they are not growth limiting). We aimed to understand: What factors drive climatic variation between sites? Are there general flowering patterns allowing us to identify phenological categories? Do flowering patterns vary in relation to site-specific weather? and most importantly, does maritime influence on weather affect flowering dynamics in coastal mediterranean ecosystems?Methods The southernmost extent of the California Floristic Province (in Baja California, Mexico) is a biological diversity hotspot of high endemism and conservation value, with two steep moisture gradients: rainfall (N–S) and coastal fogs (W–E), providing an ideal study system. We installed five weather stations across the moisture gradients, recording data hourly. We monitored flowering phenology in the square kilometer surrounding each weather station from 2010 to 2013. About 86 plant taxa were monitored across the five sites, every 6–8 weeks. Averaged climatic data is presented with general trends in flowering, and specific flowering syndromes were observed. Data for flowering intensity across the sites was analyzed using a principal components analysis.Important findings Data analysis demonstrates a general seasonal pattern in flowering times, but distinct differences in local weather and phenology between the five study sites. Three flowering syndromes are revealed in the flora: (i) water responders or spring bloomers, (ii) day-length responders or fall-blooming taxa and (iii) aseasonal bloomers with no seasonal affinity. The two moisture gradients are the strongest drivers of flowering times. Inland sites showed higher phenological variation than coastal sites where seasonality is dampened by ocean-derived moisture, which extends and buffers perennial plant phenology and is a probable driver of local endemism. Phenological controls vary globally with climate and geography; moisture is the primary driver of phenology in mediterranean climates and fog is an important climatic variable in coastal Mexico.     

Spatial variation in breeding phenology at small spatial scales: A stochastic effect of population size

Spatial variation in phenology can occur at small spatial scales over which individuals can disperse or forage within one generation. Previous studies have assumed that variations in phenological peaks are caused by differences in abiotic environmental characteristics. However, environments should generally be similar among local habitats over small spatial scales. When the local population size is small, the phenological peak of the local population should be strongly affected by the variation in timing expressed by individuals. If a regional population consists of small local subpopulations (e.g., a metapopulation), the stochastic processes regulated by population sizes may explain the spatial variation in phenology. In this study, we quantitatively evaluated the extent of the spatial and annual variations in the breeding phenology of the forest green tree frog, Rhacophorus arboreus habiting a small area (<10 km²). The spatial variation in phenological peaks among 25 breeding sites was large over 6 years. This spatial variation was not explained by differences in air temperature or water depth. Randomization tests revealed that a large portion of the spatial variation could be explained by differences in population size, without considering site-specific factors. Annual variations in phenological peaks tended to be greater for smaller populations. These results imply that the stochastic process might have caused the spatial and annual variations in the phenological peaks of R. arboreus observed in the study region. Understanding spatiotemporal variation in phenology determined by stochastic process would be important to better predict interspecific interactions and (meta)population dynamics at small spatial scales.     

植物物候学研究进展

植物物候变化在研究陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应时被誉为"矿井中的金丝雀"，全球气候变化愈演愈烈，重新引起了人们对植物物候研究的广泛关注。随着观测技术的发展，在各种空间和生态尺度上收集到的物候观测数据迅速累积，尽管已经在多个尺度上（物种、群落和景观尺度）观察到物候变化，但物候变化的机理仍然没有得到很好的理解。回顾了国内外植物物候研究的发展历程；总结了物候数据收集技术进展和全球物候变化的主要趋势；归纳了植物物候变化的机理与驱动因素；探讨了物候模型研究及物候对气候变化响应研究的主要方向。随着物候观测技术在不同尺度上应用的增加，物候研究进入了一个新的阶段。未来物候研究需要制定跨区域标准化观测指南，融合所有相关学科，改进物候模型，拓展研究区域；同时融合有效的历史物候资料，采用新技术和长期收集的物候数据为大数据时代植物物候学研究提供基础。     

Multiscale modeling of spring phenology across Deciduous Forests in the Eastern United States

Phenological events, such as bud burst, are strongly linked to ecosystem processes in temperate deciduous forests. However, the exact nature and magnitude of how seasonal and interannual variation in air temperatures influence phenology is poorly understood, and model‐based phenology representations fail to capture local‐ to regional‐scale variability arising from differences in species composition. In this paper, we use a combination of surface meteorological data, species composition maps, remote sensing, and ground‐based observations to estimate models that better represent how community‐level species composition affects the phenological response of deciduous broadleaf forests to climate forcing at spatial scales that are typically used in ecosystem models. Using time series of canopy greenness from repeat digital photography, citizen science data from the USA National Phenology Network, and satellite remote sensing‐based observations of phenology, we estimated and tested models that predict the timing of spring leaf emergence across five different deciduous broadleaf forest types in the eastern United States. Specifically, we evaluated two different approaches: (i) using species‐specific models in combination with species composition information to ‘upscale’ model predictions and (ii) using repeat digital photography of forest canopies that observe and integrate the phenological behavior of multiple representative species at each camera site to calibrate a single model for all deciduous broadleaf forests. Our results demonstrate variability in cumulative forcing requirements and photoperiod cues across species and forest types, and show how community composition influences phenological dynamics over large areas. At the same time, the response of different species to spatial and interannual variation in weather is, under the current climate regime, sufficiently similar that the generic deciduous forest model based on repeat digital photography performed comparably to the upscaled species‐specific models. More generally, results from this analysis demonstrate how in situ observation networks and remote sensing data can be used to synergistically calibrate and assess regional parameterizations of phenology in models.     

Predicting bird phenology from space: satellite‐derived vegetation green‐up signal uncovers spatial variation in phenological synchrony between birds and their environment

Population‐level studies of how tit species (Parus spp.) track the changing phenology of their caterpillar food source have provided a model system allowing inference into how populations can adjust to changing climates, but are often limited because they implicitly assume all individuals experience similar environments. Ecologists are increasingly using satellite‐derived data to quantify aspects of animals' environments, but so far studies examining phenology have generally done so at large spatial scales. Considering the scale at which individuals experience their environment is likely to be key if we are to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes acting on reproductive phenology within populations. Here, we use time series of satellite images, with a resolution of 240 m, to quantify spatial variation in vegetation green‐up for a 385‐ha mixed‐deciduous woodland. Using data spanning 13 years, we demonstrate that annual population‐level measures of the timing of peak abundance of winter moth larvae (Operophtera brumata) and the timing of egg laying in great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is related to satellite‐derived spring vegetation phenology. We go on to show that timing of local vegetation green‐up significantly explained individual differences in tit reproductive phenology within the population, and that the degree of synchrony between bird and vegetation phenology showed marked spatial variation across the woodland. Areas of high oak tree (Quercus robur) and hazel (Corylus avellana) density showed the strongest match between remote‐sensed vegetation phenology and reproductive phenology in both species. Marked within‐population variation in the extent to which phenology of different trophic levels match suggests that more attention should be given to small‐scale processes when exploring the causes and consequences of phenological matching. We discuss how use of remotely sensed data to study within‐population variation could broaden the scale and scope of studies exploring phenological synchrony between organisms and their environment.     

Spatial variability in prey phenology determines predator movement patterns and prey survival

Species have phenological variation among local habitats that are located at relatively small spatial scales. However, less studies have tested how this spatial variability in phenology can mediate intra-/inter-specific interactions. When predators track phenological variation of prey among local habitats, survival of prey within a local habitat strongly influenced by phenological synchrony with their conspecifics in adjacent habitats. Theory predicts that phenological synchrony among local habitats increases prey survival in local habitat within spatially structured environments because the predators have to make a habitat choice for foraging. Consequently, total survival of prey at regional scale should be higher. By using a spatially explicit field experiment, we tested above hypothesis using a prey–predator interaction between tadpole (Rhacophorus arboreus) and newt (Cynops pyrrhogaster). We established enclosures (≈regional scale) consisting of two tanks (≈local habitat scale) with different degree of prey phenological synchrony. We found that phenological synchrony of prey between tanks within each enclosure decreased the mean residence time of the predator in each tank, which resulted in higher survival of prey at a local habitat scale, supporting the theoretical prediction. Furthermore, individual-level variation in predator residence time explained the between-tank variation in prey survival in enclosures with phenological synchrony, implying that movement patterns of the predator can mediate variation in local population dynamics of their prey. However, total survival at each enclosure was not higher under phenological synchrony. These results suggest the importance of relative timing of prey phenology, not absolute timing, among local habitats in determining prey–predator interactions.     

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species’ phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km² area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species’ phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology–climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late‐summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others.     

Seeing the Forest through the Trees: Considering Roost-Site Selection at Multiple Spatial Scales

Conservation of bat species is one of the most daunting wildlife conservation challenges in North America, requiring detailed knowledge about their ecology to guide conservation efforts. Outside of the hibernating season, bats in temperate forest environments spend their diurnal time in day-roosts. In addition to simple shelter, summer roost availability is as critical as maternity sites and maintaining social group contact. To date, a major focus of bat conservation has concentrated on conserving individual roost sites, with comparatively less focus on the role that broader habitat conditions contribute towards roost-site selection. We evaluated roost-site selection by a northern population of federally-endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) at Fort Drum Military Installation in New York, USA at three different spatial scales: landscape, forest stand, and individual tree level. During 2007–2011, we radiotracked 33 Indiana bats (10 males, 23 females) and located 348 roosting events in 116 unique roost trees. At the landscape scale, bat roost-site selection was positively associated with northern mixed forest, increased slope, and greater distance from human development. At the stand scale, we observed subtle differences in roost site selection based on sex and season, but roost selection was generally positively associated with larger stands with a higher basal area, larger tree diameter, and a greater sugar maple (Acer saccharum) component. We observed no distinct trends of roosts being near high-quality foraging areas of water and forest edges. At the tree scale, roosts were typically in American elm (Ulmus americana) or sugar maple of large diameter (>30 cm) of moderate decay with loose bark. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of considering day roost needs simultaneously across multiple spatial scales. Size and decay class of individual roosts are key ecological attributes for the Indiana bat, however, larger-scale stand structural components that are products of past and current land use interacting with environmental aspects such as landform also are important factors influencing roost-tree selection patterns.     

High ambient temperatures induce aggregations of chimney swifts Chaetura pelagica inside a roost

One proposed advantage of communal roosting in birds is a reduction in the costs of thermoregulation. As thermoregulatory benefits are directly linked to the distance between roosting birds, we examined whether temperature is related to inter‐bird spacing in roosting chimney swifts Chaetura pelagica. To test the hypothesis that huddling is used to reduce the costs of thermoregulation, we predicted that swifts would cluster more at colder temperatures. We mounted an all‐weather camera atop a 61 m tall industrial masonry chimney, one of the largest swift roosts in the study region. We deployed temperature loggers inside the chimney and obtained ambient air temperature from a nearby weather station. From 16 May–24 July 2013, we captured hourly images of the positions of roosting swifts at night. We used image analysis software to mark the angular positions of all roosting swifts, and calculated mean angles of orientation (preferred direction) inside the roost and the circular variance (i.e. the concentration of swifts around the mean angle). We used a Gamma regression to relate temperature inside and outside the roost to the clustering of swifts around the mean angle for 3 time periods (pre‐nesting, nesting, and post‐nesting). Converse to our prediction, swifts were closer together when ambient air temperatures were warmer in all periods (pre‐nesting (p < 0.001, n = 168), nesting (p < 0.001, n = 224), and post‐nesting (p < 0.001, n = 135)). Our findings suggest that swifts do not increase clustering intensity in response to colder temperatures, but instead they increase clustering intensity in response to the warmest ambient temperatures. This likely a metabolic response to reduced prey availability at higher temperatures and/or an attempt to reduce evaporative water loss. We suggest clustering may be used by chimney swifts as an energy saving mechanism during periods of lowered food availability.     

Roosting in tree foliage by Common Swifts Apus apus

Common Swifts Apus apus have occasionally been reported roosting overnight by hanging in the foliage of trees. However, roosting in foliage, which is often associated with food shortage as a result of adverse weather, appears to be an important alternative to aerial roosting. Thirty-nine observations of the behaviour have been recorded previously in Europe, some of them concerning two or more birds. Furthermore, each August from 1982 to 2000, within a restricted area of c . 300 × 300 m in southern Sweden, Swifts (118 total) were observed to roost in the foliage of trees or on a latticework mast, whereas others (230 total) were observed making 'fly-ins' typical of the behaviour preliminary to roosting. Of those roosting, 39 Swifts could be aged, and all but one of these were newly fledged juveniles. The Swifts perched late at dusk with maximum frequency about 30 min after sunset, but tended to perch earlier in cloudy weather and later in clear weather. Numbers of roosting Swifts were correlated with low mean temperatures in August, and appearances of roosting Swifts were correlated with low local evening temperatures. During May–July 1982–2000, within the same small area, 18 Swifts were observed to roost in this manner and 29 other Swifts made preroost fly-ins. It is concluded that the behaviour is used more frequently and is more widespread geographically than thus far published observations indicate. This applies especially to newly fledged young on their first migration. Adaptive explanations for this are suggested, with the implication that the behaviour may be widespread in swifts of the tribe Apodini.     

Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in Japan

Aim  To estimate the potential effect of global climate change on the phenological responses of plants it is necessary to estimate spatial variations at larger scales. However, previous studies have not estimated latitudinal patterns in the phenological response directly. We hypothesized that the phenological response of plants varies with latitude, and estimated the phenological response to long-term climate change using autumn phenological events that have been delayed by recent climate change.
Location  Japan.
Methods  We used a 53-year data set to document the latitudinal patterns in the climate responses of the timing of autumn leaf colouring and fall for two tree species over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). We calculated single regression slopes for leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan and tested their latitudinal patterns using regression models. The effects of latitude, time and their interaction on the responses of the phenological timings were also estimated using generalized linear mixed models.
Results  Our results showed that single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature in autumn were positive at most stations. Higher temperatures can delay the timing of leaf phenology. Negative relationships were found between the phenological response of leaves to temperature and latitude. Single regression slopes of the phenological responses at lower latitudes were larger than those at higher latitudes.
Main conclusions  We found negative relationships between leaf phenological responsiveness and latitude. These findings will be important for predicting phenological timing with global climate change.     

Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska

Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long‐term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long‐term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long‐term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long‐term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams. Temporal changes in the median date of salmon migration timing varied widely across species. Most sockeye populations are migrating later over time (11 of 14), but pink, chum, and especially coho populations are migrating earlier than they did historically (16 of 19 combined). Temporal trends in duration and interannual variation in migration timing were highly variable across species and populations. The greatest temporal shifts in the median date of migration timing were correlated with decreases in the duration of migration timing, suggestive of a loss of phenotypic variation due to natural selection. Pairwise interannual correlations in migration timing varied widely but were generally positive, providing evidence for weak region‐wide phenological synchrony. This synchrony is likely a function of climatic variation, as interannual variation in migration timing was related to climatic phenomenon operating at large‐ (Pacific decadal oscillation), moderate‐ (sea surface temperature), and local‐scales (precipitation). Surprisingly, the presence or the absence of glaciers within a watershed was unrelated to long‐term shifts in phenology. Overall, there was extensive heterogeneity in long‐term patterns of migration timing throughout this climatically and geographically complex region, highlighting that future climatic change will likely have widely divergent impacts on salmon migration timing. Although salmon phenological diversity will complicate future predictions of migration timing, this variation likely acts as a major contributor to population and ecosystem resiliency in southeast Alaska.     

Reproductive phenology of coastal plain Atlantic forest vegetation: comparisons from seashore to foothills

The diversity of tropical forest plant phenology has called the attention of researchers for a long time. We continue investigating the factors that drive phenological diversity on a wide scale, but we are unaware of the variation of plant reproductive phenology at a fine spatial scale despite the high spatial variation in species composition and abundance in tropical rainforests. We addressed fine scale variability by investigating the reproductive phenology of three contiguous vegetations across the Atlantic rainforest coastal plain in Southeastern Brazil. We asked whether the vegetations differed in composition and abundance of species, the microenvironmental conditions and the reproductive phenology, and how their phenology is related to regional and local microenvironmental factors. The study was conducted from September 2007 to August 2009 at three contiguous sites: (1) seashore dominated by scrub vegetation, (2) intermediary covered by restinga forest and (3) foothills covered by restinga pre-montane transitional forest. We conducted the microenvironmental, plant and phenological survey within 30 transects of 25 m × 4 m (10 per site). We detected significant differences in floristic, microenvironment and reproductive phenology among the three vegetations. The microenvironment determines the spatial diversity observed in the structure and composition of the flora, which in turn determines the distinctive flowering and fruiting peaks of each vegetation (phenological diversity). There was an exchange of species providing flowers and fruits across the vegetation complex. We conclude that plant reproductive patterns as described in most phenological studies (without concern about the microenvironmental variation) may conceal the fine scale temporal phenological diversity of highly diverse tropical vegetation. This phenological diversity should be taken into account when generating sensor-derived phenologies and when trying to understand tropical vegetation responses to environmental changes.     

The shifting phenological landscape: Within‐ and between‐species variation in leaf emergence in a mixed‐deciduous woodland

Many organisms rely on synchronizing the timing of their life‐history events with those of other trophic levels—known as phenological matching—for survival or successful reproduction. In temperate deciduous forests, the extent of matching with the budburst date of key tree species is of particular relevance for many herbivorous insects and, in turn, insectivorous birds. In order to understand the ecological and evolutionary forces operating in these systems, we require knowledge of the factors influencing leaf emergence of tree communities. However, little is known about how phenology at the level of individual trees varies across landscapes, or how consistent this spatial variation is between different tree species. Here, we use field observations, collected over 2 years, to characterize within‐ and between‐species differences in spring phenology for 825 trees of six species (Quercus robur, Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica, Betula pendula, Corylus avellana, and Acer pseudoplatanus) in a 385‐ha woodland. We explore environmental predictors of individual variation in budburst date and bud development rate and establish how these phenological traits vary over space. Trees of all species showed markedly consistent individual differences in their budburst timing. Bud development rate also varied considerably between individuals and was repeatable in oak, beech, and sycamore. We identified multiple predictors of budburst date including altitude, local temperature, and soil type, but none were universal across species. Furthermore, we found no evidence for interspecific covariance of phenology over space within the woodland. These analyses suggest that phenological landscapes are highly complex, varying over small spatial scales both within and between species. Such spatial variation in vegetation phenology is likely to influence patterns of selection on phenology within populations of consumers. Knowledge of the factors shaping the phenological environments experienced by animals is therefore likely to be key in understanding how these evolutionary processes operate.     

Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine,freshwater and terrestrial environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.