Traits explain community disassembly and trophic contraction following experimental environmental change

Many ecosystems are currently undergoing dramatic changes in biodiversity due to habitat loss and climate change. Responses to global change at the community level are poorly understood, as are the impacts of community disassembly on ecosystem‐level processes. Uncertainties remain regarding the patterns of extirpation and persistence under single vs. multiple forms of environmental change. Here, we use a trait‐based and food web approach to examine the effects of experimentally changing moisture, temperature and habitat ‘openness’ on a functionally important group of microarthropods associated with a boreal forest floor bryosphere (detrital moss) system. Overall, the outcome of community disassembly was mediated by the correlation between our environmental factors and species traits, particularly body size. Minor increases in summer temperatures maintained greater species richness, whereas drought stress had a significant negative effect on community‐level abundance and richness. These effects were reflected in modifications to the community‐wide body‐size spectra. Habitat openness alleviated biodiversity loss in the larger‐bodied species of the most abundant taxonomic group, but did not fully mitigate the effects of drought. The most striking result of this experiment was an overall contraction of the food web among persistent species under drought stress (i.e. those not extirpated by environmental change). These results suggest that major changes in boreal microarthropod community structure are likely to occur in response to common forms of global change. Moreover, the contraction in trophic structure even amongst tolerant species suggests that ecosystem function within the bryosphere can be altered by environmental change.     

Intraspecific trait variation across elevation predicts a widespread tree species' climate niche and range limits

Global change is widely altering environmental conditions which makes accurately predicting species range limits across natural landscapes critical for conservation and management decisions. If climate pressures along elevation gradients influence the distribution of phenotypic and genetic variation of plant functional traits, then such trait variation may be informative of the selective mechanisms and adaptations that help define climatic niche limits. Using extensive field surveys along 16 elevation transects and a large common garden experiment, we tested whether functional trait variation could predict the climatic niche of a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with a double quantile regression approach. We show that intraspecific variation in plant size, growth, and leaf morphology corresponds with the species' total climate range and certain climatic limits related to temperature and moisture extremes. Moreover, we find evidence of genetic clines and phenotypic plasticity at environmental boundaries, which we use to create geographic predictions of trait variation and maximum values due to climatic constraints across the western US. Overall, our findings show the utility of double quantile regressions for connecting species distributions and climate gradients through trait‐based mechanisms. We highlight how new approaches like ours that incorporate genetic variation in functional traits and their response to climate gradients will lead to a better understanding of plant distributions as well as identifying populations anticipated to be maladapted to future environments.     

Rethinking species' ability to cope with rapid climate change

Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent‐wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species.     

Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species

A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.     

Niche width predicts extinction from climate change and vulnerability of tropical species

Climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, especially to tropical species. Yet, why tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change remains unclear. Tropical species are thought to have narrower physiological tolerances to temperature, and they have already experienced a higher estimated frequency of climate-related local extinctions. These two patterns suggest that tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change because they have narrower thermal niche widths. However, no studies have tested whether species with narrower climatic niche widths for temperature have experienced more local extinctions, and if these narrower niche widths can explain the higher frequency of tropical local extinctions. Here, we test these ideas using resurvey data from 538 plant and animal species from 10 studies. We found that mean niche widths among species and the extent of climate change (increase in maximum annual temperatures) together explained most variation (>75%) in the frequency of local extinction among studies. Surprisingly, neither latitude nor occurrence in the tropics alone significantly predicted local extinction among studies, but latitude and niche widths were strongly inversely related. Niche width also significantly predicted local extinction among species, as well as among and (sometimes) within studies. Overall, niche width may offer a relatively simple and accessible predictor of the vulnerability of populations to climate change. Intriguingly, niche width has the best predictive power to explain extinction from global warming when it incorporates coldest yearly temperatures.     

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean‐warming hotspot

Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean‐warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small‐ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.     

Arboreal walking performance in seven didelphid marsupials as an aspect of their fundamental niche

Abstract Species of didelphid marsupials (Didelphimorphia, Didelphidae) differ in their use of the forest strata, but it is not clear whether these differences are in fundamental or realized niches. The fundamental niche of seven species of didelphids (Caluromys philander, Didelphis aurita, Gracilinanus microtarsus, Marmosops incanus, Metachirus nudicaudatus, Micoureus demerarae, and Philander frenatus) was compared using their performance in arboreal walking. The association between performance and vertical use of the forest also was tested accounting for phylogenetic and allometric effects. Tests consisted of making the animal cross five 3 m long horizontal supports of different diameters, 1 m from the ground. The cycle of maximum speed was chosen to measure stride length, frequency and velocity. Arboreal species performed better than the terrestrial ones, but a major part of the variation in stride length (70.95%) and stride frequency (88.10%) was associated with body size. Part of the variation in stride length independent of body size (14.05%) was associated with the degree of vertical use of the forest, after phylogenetic effects were accounted for. Fundamental niches of six of the seven species were discriminated with the performance tests used. Discrepancies between the realized and fundamental niches can be inferred for two of these species, D. aurita and P. frenatus.     

Effects of late quaternary climate change on Palearctic shrews

The Late Quaternary was a time of rapid climatic oscillations and drastic environmental changes. In general, species can respond to such changes by behavioral accommodation, distributional shifts, ecophenotypic modifications (nongenetic), evolution (genetic) or ultimately face local extinction. How those responses manifested in the past is essential for properly predicting future ones especially as the current warm phase is further intensified by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) and morphological features in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genetic and nongenetic responses of Central European Palearctic shrews to past climatic change. We show that a giant form of shrew, previously described as an extinct Pleistocene Sorex species, represents a large ecomorph of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), which was replaced by populations from a different gene‐pool and with different morphology after the Pleistocene Holocene transition. We also report the presence of the cold‐adapted tundra shrew (S. tundrensis) in Central Europe. This species is currently restricted to Siberia and was hitherto unknown as an element of the Pleistocene fauna of Europe. Finally, we show that there is no clear correlation between climatic oscillations within the last 50 000 years and body size in shrews and conclude that a special nonanalogous situation with regard to biodiversity and food supply in the Late Glacial may have caused the observed large body size.     

Fingerprints of environmental change on the rare mediterranean flora: a 115-year study

We empirically assessed the long‐term changes in the rare species assemblage of a Mediterranean flora, in terms of species life history traits, niche and biogeographic features, and taxonomic groups. We used a 115‐year historical record of ca. 2100 plant species occurrences in a 6250 km² region in Mediterranean France. Species were assigned to two classes of regional abundance for the years 1886 and 2001 (rare species, i.e. exhibiting one or two occurrences vs. nonrare species), and to three classes of abundance changes during 1886–2001 (decreasing/extinct, stable, increasing/immigrant). Then, we tested whether species regional abundance and species abundance change were related to their morphological and life‐history traits (life form, perenniality, height, dispersal agent, pollination mode), niche and biogeographic features (habitat specialization, level of endemism, biogeographic origin) and taxonomic group. The regional assemblage of rare species was not biologically random and significantly changed between 1886 and 2001. Species classified as rare in 1886 had a significantly higher rate of extinction in the study region during 1886–2001. The highest rate of regression/extinction was found among hydrophyte and/or water‐dispersed rare species, and among annual rare species. However, herbaceous perennial, tree and wind‐dispersed rare species significantly increased in abundance during 1886–2001. Rare species with Eurosiberian distributions, occurring at the southern margin of their range in the study region, dramatically declined or went extinct in the region during 1886–2001; whereas rare species with Mediterranean affinities remained significantly stable. We also found strong evidence for taxonomic patterns in species abundance and abundance changes from 1886 to 2001. The long‐term biological changes documented here in the rare species assemblage of a Mediterranean flora are consistent with the predicted consequences of climate and land use changes currently occurring in the Mediterranean Basin. With the potential decline or even extinction of entire taxa and the loss of southern ecotypes of widespread Eurosiberian species, both evolutionary history and speciation potential of the Mediterranean Region could be strongly altered in future decades.     

Vulnerability to xylem cavitation of Hakea species (Proteaceae) from a range of biomes and life histories predicted by climatic niche

Background and AimsExtreme drought conditions across the globe are impacting biodiversity, with serious implications for the persistence of native species. However, quantitative data on physiological tolerance are not available for diverse flora to inform conservation management. We quantified physiological resistance to cavitation in the diverse Hakea genus (Proteaceae) to test predictions based on climatic origin, life history and functional traits.MethodsWe sampled terminal branches of replicate plants of 16 species in a common garden. Xylem cavitation was induced in branches under varying water potentials (tension) in a centrifuge, and the tension generating 50 % loss of conductivity (stem P₅₀) was characterized as a metric for cavitation resistance. The same branches were used to estimate plant functional traits, including wood density, specific leaf area and Huber value (sap flow area to leaf area ratio).Key ResultsThere was significant variation in stem P₅₀ among species, which was negatively associated with the species climate origin (rainfall and aridity). Cavitation resistance did not differ among life histories; however, a drought avoidance strategy with terete leaf form and greater Huber value may be important for species to colonize and persist in the arid biome.ConclusionsThis study highlights climate (rainfall and aridity), rather than life history and functional traits, as the key predictor of variation in cavitation resistance (stem P₅₀). Rainfall for species origin was the best predictor of cavitation resistance, explaining variation in stem P₅₀, which appears to be a major determinant of species distribution. This study also indicates that stem P₅₀ is an adaptive trait, genetically determined, and hence reliable and robust for predicting species vulnerability to climate change. Our findings will contribute to future prediction of species vulnerability to drought and adaptive management under climate change.     

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism–body mass and consumption–body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species'' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.     

Functional traits underlying performance variations in the overwintering of the cosmopolitan invasive plant water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) under climate warming and water drawdown

Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that temperature rise is still the general trend of the global climate in the 21st century. Invasive species may benefit from the increase in temperature, as climate can be viewed as a resource, and the increase in the available resources favors the invasibility of invasive species. This study aimed to assess the overwintering growth of the cosmopolitan invasive plant water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) at its northern boundary. Using E. crassipes as a model plant, a cross‐year mesocosm experiment was conducted to determine 17 plant functional traits, including growth, morphological, root topological, photosynthetic, and stoichiometric traits, under climate warming (ambient, temperature rises of 1.5°C and 3.0°C), and water drawdown or water withdrawal (water depths of 1, 10, and 20 cm) treatments. The overwintering growth of E. crassipes was facilitated by climate warming and proper water drawdown, and climate warming played a leading role. A temperature rises of 3.0°C and a water depth of 10 cm were the most suitable conditions for the overwintering and rooting behavior of the plant. Controlling the temperature to within 1.5°C, an ambitious goal for China, still facilitated the overwintering of E. crassipes. With climate warming, the plant can overwinter successfully, which possibly assists it in producing and spreading new ramets in the vernal flood season. The new rooting behavior induced by ambient low temperature may be viewed as a unique growth adaptation strategy for a niche change, as it helps these plants invade empty niches left by dead free‐floating plants on the water surface following winter freezes. With continued global warming, the distribution of the plant may expand northward, and eradication of the plant during the winter water drawdown period may be a more effective strategy.     

Novel communities from climate change

Climate change is generating novel communities composed of new combinations of species. These result from different degrees of species adaptations to changing biotic and abiotic conditions, and from differential range shifts of species. To determine whether the responses of organisms are determined by particular species traits and how species interactions and community dynamics are likely to be disrupted is a challenge. Here, we focus on two key traits: body size and ecological specialization. We present theoretical expectations and empirical evidence on how climate change affects these traits within communities. We then explore how these traits predispose species to shift or expand their distribution ranges, and associated changes on community size structure, food web organization and dynamics. We identify three major broad changes: (i) Shift in the distribution of body sizes towards smaller sizes, (ii) dominance of generalized interactions and the loss of specialized interactions, and (iii) changes in the balance of strong and weak interaction strengths in the short term. We finally identify two major uncertainties: (i) whether large-bodied species tend to preferentially shift their ranges more than small-bodied ones, and (ii) how interaction strengths will change in the long term and in the case of newly interacting species.     

Niche shifting in response to warming climate after the last glacial maximum: inference from genetic data and niche assessments in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps)

During Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles, the geographic range is often assumed to have shifted as a species tracks its climatic niche. Alternatively, the geographic range would not necessarily shift if a species can adapt in situ to a changing environment. The potential for a species to persist in place might increase with the diversity of habitat types that a species exploits. We evaluate evidence for either range shift or range stability between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and present time in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps), an endemic of the Great Basin and Mojave deserts. We modeled how the species’ range would have changed if the climatic niche of the species remained conserved between the LGM and present time. The climatic models imply that if D. microps inhabited the same climatic niche during the LGM as it does today, the species would have persisted primarily within the warm Mojave Desert and expanded northwards into the cold Great Basin only after the LGM. Contrary to the climatic models, the mitochondrial DNA assessment revealed signals of population persistence within the current distribution of the species throughout at least the latest glacial‐interglacial cycle. We concluded that D. microps did not track its climatic niche during late Pleistocene oscillations, but rather met the challenge of a changing environment by shifting its niche and retaining large portions of its distribution. We speculate that this kind of response to fluctuating climate was possible because of ‘niche drifting’, an alteration of the species’ realized niche due to plasticity in various biological characters. Our study provides an example of an approach to reconstruct species’ responses to past climatic changes that can be used to evaluate whether and to what extent taxa have capacity to shift their niches in response to the changing environment – information becoming increasingly important to predicting biotic responses to future environmental changes.     

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests,Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south‐eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent . After superimposing the present‐day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre‐ and post‐deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre‐ and post‐deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large‐scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra‐specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present‐day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra‐specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.     

Dietary generalism accelerates arrival and persistence of coral‐reef fishes in their novel ranges under climate change

Climate change is redistributing marine and terrestrial species globally. Life‐history traits mediate the ability of species to cope with novel environmental conditions, and can be used to gauge the potential redistribution of taxa facing the challenges of a changing climate. However, it is unclear whether the same traits are important across different stages of range shifts (arrival, population increase, persistence). To test which life‐history traits most mediate the process of range extension, we used a 16‐year dataset of 35 range‐extending coral‐reef fish species and quantified the importance of various traits on the arrival time (earliness) and degree of persistence (prevalence and patchiness) at higher latitudes. We show that traits predisposing species to shift their range more rapidly (large body size, broad latitudinal range, long dispersal duration) did not drive the early stages of redistribution. Instead, we found that as diet breadth increased, the initial arrival and establishment (prevalence and patchiness) of climate migrant species in temperate locations occurred earlier. While the initial incursion of range‐shifting species depends on traits associated with dispersal potential, subsequent establishment hinges more on a species’ ability to exploit novel food resources locally. These results highlight that generalist species that can best adapt to novel food sources might be most successful in a future ocean.     

From projected species distribution to food‐web structure under climate change

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food‐web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food‐web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080–2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large‐scale impacts of climate change on marine food‐web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.     

Seeds of future past: climate change and the thermal memory of plant reproductive traits

Plant persistence and migration in face of climate change depends on successful reproduction by seed, a central aspect of plant life that drives population dynamics, community assembly and species distributions. Plant reproduction by seed is a chain of physiological processes, the rates of which are a function of temperature, and can be modelled using thermal time models. Importantly, while seed reproduction responds to its instantaneous thermal environment, there is also evidence of phenotypic plasticity in response to the thermal history experienced by the plant's recent ancestors, by the reproducing plant since seedling establishment, and by its seeds both before and after their release. This phenotypic plasticity enables a thermal memory of plant reproduction, which allows individuals to acclimatise to their surroundings. This review synthesises current knowledge on the thermal memory of plant reproduction by seed, and highlights its importance for modelling approaches based on physiological thermal time. We performed a comprehensive search in the Web of Science and analysed 533 relevant articles, of which 81 provided material for a meta‐analysis of thermal memory in reproductive functional traits based on the effect size Zr. The articles encompassed the topics of seed development, seed yield (mass and number), seed dormancy (physiological, morphological and physical), germination, and seedling establishment. The results of the meta‐analysis provide evidence for a thermal memory of seed yield, physiological dormancy and germination. Seed mass and physiological dormancy appear to be the central hubs of this memory. We argue for integrating thermal memory into a predictive framework based on physiological time modelling. This will provide a quantitative assessment of plant reproduction, a complex system that integrates past and present thermal inputs to achieve successful reproduction in changing environments. The effects of a warming environment on plant reproduction cannot be reduced to a qualitative interpretation of absolute positives and negatives. Rather, these effects need to be understood in terms of changing rates and thresholds for the physiological process that underlie reproduction by seed.