Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern

Aim

Many alien species experience a lag phase between arriving in a region and becoming invasive, which can provide a valuable window of opportunity for management. Our ability to predict which species are experiencing lags has major implications for management decisions that are worth billions of dollars and that may determine the survival of some native species. To date, timing and causes of lag and release have been identified post hoc, based on historical narratives.

Location

Global.

Methods

We use a simple but realistic simulation of population spread over a fragmented landscape. To break the invasion lag, we introduce a sudden, discrete change in dispersal.

Results

We show that the ability to predict invasion lags is minimal even under controlled circumstances. We also show a non‐negligible risk of falsely attributing lag breaks to mechanisms based on invasion trajectories and coincidences in timing.

Main conclusions

We suggest that post hoc narratives may lead us to erroneously believe we can predict lags and that a precautionary approach is the only sound management practice for most alien species.

     

Past forest cover explains current genetic differentiation in the Carpathian newt (Lissotriton montandoni), but not in the smooth newt (L. vulgaris)

Aim

Current genetic variation and differentiation are expected to reflect the effects of past rather than present landscapes due to time lags, that is, the time necessary for genetic diversity to reach equilibrium and reflect demography. Time lags can affect our ability to infer landscape use and model connectivity and also obscure the genetic consequences of recent landscape changes. In this work, we test whether past forest cover better explains contemporary patterns of genetic differentiation in two closely related but ecologically distinct newt species—Lissotriton montandoni and L. vulgaris.

Location

Carpathian Mountains and foothills.

Methods

Genetic differentiation between populations was related to landscape resistance optimized with tools from landscape genetics, for multiple timeframes, using forest-cover data from 1963 to 2015. Analyses were conducted for pairs of populations at distances from 1 to 50 km.

Results

We find evidence for a time lag in L. montandoni, with forest cover from 40 years ago (ca. 10 newt generations) better explaining current genetic differentiation. In L. vulgaris, current genetic differentiation was better predicted by present land-cover models with lower resistance given to open forests. This result may reflect the generalist ecology of L. vulgaris, its lower effective population sizes and exposure to habitat destruction and fragmentation.

Main Conclusions

Our study provides evidence for time lags in L. montandoni, showing that the genetic consequences of landscape change for some species are not yet evident. Our findings highlight the interspecific variation in time lag prevalence and demonstrate that current patterns of genetic differentiation should be interpreted in the context of historical landscape changes.     

Climate change impacts on Mediterranean vegetation are amplified at low altitudes

Aim

In the face of ongoing climate warming, we wanted to quantify impacts on vegetation at one of the major climatic and biogeographical boundaries of Europe, the limit between the Mediterranean and Eurosiberian biogeographical regions. We analyse temperature and moisture requirements of plants along altitudinal gradients at regional scale in the period 1980–2020 and we explore if changes coincide with observed changes in the same regions in terms of measured climatic data.

Location

Southern France.

Time period

1980–2020.

Taxa

Vascular plants.

Methods

We calculated shifts in plants’ temperature and moisture requirements for a large floristic database from south-eastern France (SIMETHIS) during the period 1980–2020 along altitudinal gradients by using ecological indicator values (EIV). Additionally, we analysed standardized weather station data from the same area and period, to investigate whether floristic changes are synchronized with climate changes.

Results

Vegetation data suggest a linear increase in temperature requirements of plant communities from 1980 to 2020 with a greater change at low altitudes. Upward shifts in temperature requirements coincided with observed climate change although warming did not show a general trend towards greater increases at low altitudes. Data on vegetation and climate suggest an upward shift of respectively 150 and 300 m for the boundary between Mediterranean and temperate belts. Moisture requirements of vegetation indicate an increase of the frequency of dry adapted species at low altitudes but an increase towards higher moisture requirements at high altitudes. Comparing vegetation responses with climate data suggests that responses are faster at low altitudes.

Main conclusions

Our analyses show that strong general changes in vegetation are underway and highlight faster responses of vegetation to warming in low altitudes compared to high altitudes and demonstrate the need for reliable data on vegetation and climate changes, especially on water balance.     

Conserving species‐rich predator assemblages strengthens natural pest control in a climate warming context

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Response of soil nematodes to elevated temperature in conventional and no-tillage cropland systems

Aims

Nematodes are sensitive to environmental changes and are strongly affected by tillage practices. However, it remains unclear whether an increase in soil temperature in conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT) cropland systems would have a significant effect on nematode communities. The response of soil nematodes to increases in temperature will provide valuable information about probable changes in soil ecology under global warming.

Methods

A field experiment using infrared heaters to simulate climate warming was performed in North China. The impacts of predicted warming on the nematode community in CT and NT systems were measured during the growing season of maize.

Results

The results showed that the diversity of nematodes responded positively to warming in both tillage systems early in the maize growing season, though the diversity in NT declined due to warming late in the growing season. However, no significant warming effects were found on the total nematode density, individual feeding group density or functional indices. Compared to CT, NT presented a rather different nematode community that was characterized by a large nematode diversity, low fungal feeder density due to a strong decrease in Aphelenchoides, and high maturity indices.

Conclusions

Tillage is an important factor that influences the soil properties and nematode community. It is proposed that future global warming with soil temperature increasing approximately 1 °C will have only small effects on soil nematodes in the two tillage systems.     

Dual phase lag bio-heat transfer during cryosurgery of lung cancer: Comparison of three heat transfer models

The Pennes bio-heat model is based on Fourier's law of heat conduction, which assumed that a thermal signal propagate with infinite speed. This gives contradiction in physical situation. Also, the hyperbolic bio-heat model considers the micro scale response in time, but it does not explain the micro scale response in space. Therefore, to consider the thermal behaviour which is not captured by the Fourier's law and to take into account the microstructural effect in space, a dual phase lag (DPL) bio-heat conduction model would be advantageous. In this paper, a two dimensional DPL model is proposed to study the phase change heat transfer process during cryosurgery of lung cancer. The governing equations are solved numerically by enthalpy based finite difference method. The non-ideal behaviour of tissue and heat source terms, metabolism and blood perfusion are also considered. This study is made to examine the effects of phase lags in heat flux and temperature gradient on interface positions and temperature distribution during freezing process. A comparative study of DPL, parabolic and hyperbolic conduction models is thoroughly investigated. It is found that the phase lags of temperature gradient and heat flux have significant effect on interface positions and temperature distribution.     

Subpopulations of sensorless bacteria drive fitness in fluctuating environments

Populations of bacteria often undergo a lag in growth when switching conditions. Because growth lags can be large compared to typical doubling times, variations in growth lag are an important but often overlooked component of bacterial fitness in fluctuating environments. We here explore how growth lag variation is determined for the archetypical switch from glucose to lactose as a carbon source in Escherichia coli. First, we show that single-cell lags are bimodally distributed and controlled by a single-molecule trigger. That is, gene expression noise causes the population before the switch to divide into subpopulations with zero and nonzero lac operon expression. While “sensorless” cells with zero preexisting lac expression at the switch have long lags because they are unable to sense the lactose signal, any nonzero lac operon expression suffices to ensure a short lag. Second, we show that the growth lag at the population level depends crucially on the fraction of sensorless cells and that this fraction in turn depends sensitively on the growth condition before the switch. Consequently, even small changes in basal expression can significantly affect the fraction of sensorless cells, thereby population lags and fitness under switching conditions, and may thus be subject to significant natural selection. Indeed, we show that condition-dependent population lags vary across wild E. coli isolates. Since many sensory genes are naturally low expressed in conditions where their inducer is not present, bimodal responses due to subpopulations of sensorless cells may be a general mechanism inducing phenotypic heterogeneity and controlling population lags in switching environments. This mechanism also illustrates how gene expression noise can turn even a simple sensory gene circuit into a bet hedging module and underlines the profound role of gene expression noise in regulatory responses.

Is ignorance bliss for some bacterial cells? Single-cell analysis of the archetypical switch from glucose to lactose as a carbon source in E. coli shows that bacteria can exhibit stochastic bimodal responses to external stimuli because the corresponding sensory circuit is so lowly expressed that some cells are effectively blind to the stimulus.     

Effect of growth temperature on photosynthetic capacity and respiration in three ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum

Ecotypic differentiation in the tussock‐forming sedge Eriophorum vaginatum has led to the development of populations that are locally adapted to climate in Alaska's moist tussock tundra. As a foundation species, E. vaginatum plays a central role in providing topographic and microclimatic variation essential to these ecosystems, but a changing climate could diminish the importance of this species. As Arctic temperatures have increased, there is evidence of adaptational lag in E. vaginatum, as locally adapted ecotypes now exhibit reduced population growth rates. Whether there is a physiological underpinning to adaptational lag is unknown. Accordingly, this possibility was investigated in reciprocal transplant gardens. Tussocks of E. vaginatum from sites separated by ~1° latitude (Coldfoot: 67°15′N, Toolik Lake: 68°37′, Sagwon: 69°25′) were transplanted into the Toolik Lake and Sagwon sites and exposed to either an ambient or an experimental warming treatment. Five tussocks pertreatment combination were measured at each garden to determine photosynthetic capacity (i.e., V_cmax and J_max) and dark respiration rate (R_d) at measurement temperatures of 15, 20, and 25°C. Photosynthetic enhancements or homeostasis were observed for all ecotypes at both gardens under increased growth temperature, indicating no negative effect of elevated temperature on photosynthetic capacity. Further, no evidence of thermal acclimation in R_d was observed for any ecotype, and there was little evidence of ecotypic variation in R_d. As such, no physiological contribution to adaptational lag was observed given the increase in growth temperature (up to ~2°C) provided by this study. Despite neutral to positive effects of increased growth temperature on photosynthesis in E. vaginatum, it appears to confer no lasting advantage to the species.     

Rarity,geography, and plant exposure to global change in the California Floristic Province

Aim

Rarity and geographic aspects of species distributions mediate their vulnerability to global change. We explore the relationships between species rarity and geography and their exposure to climate and land use change in a biodiversity hotspot.

Location

California, USA.

Taxa

One hundred and six terrestrial plants.

Methods

We estimated four rarity traits: range size, niche breadth, number of habitat patches, and patch isolation; and three geographic traits: mean elevation, topographic heterogeneity, and distance to coast. We used species distribution models to measure species exposure—predicted change in continuous habitat suitability within currently occupied habitat—under climate and land use change scenarios. Using regression models, decision-tree models and variance partitioning, we assessed the relationships between species rarity, geography, and exposure to climate and land use change.

Results

Rarity, geography and greenhouse gas emissions scenario explained >35% of variance in climate change exposure and >61% for land use change exposure. While rarity traits (range size and number of habitat patches) were most important for explaining species exposure to climate change, geographic traits (elevation and topographic heterogeneity) were more strongly associated with species' exposure to land use change.

Main conclusions

Species with restricted range sizes and low topographic heterogeneity across their distributions were predicted to be the most exposed to climate change, while species at low elevations were the most exposed to habitat loss via land use change. However, even some broadly distributed species were projected to lose >70% of their currently suitable habitat due to climate and land use change if they are in geographically vulnerable areas, emphasizing the need to consider both species rarity traits and geography in vulnerability assessments.     

Coping with temperature at the warm edge--patterns of thermal adaptation in the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum

Background

Ectothermic organisms are thought to be severely affected by global warming since their physiological performance is directly dependent on temperature. Latitudinal and temporal variations in mean temperatures force ectotherms to adapt to these complex environmental conditions. Studies investigating current patterns of thermal adaptation among populations of different latitudes allow a prediction of the potential impact of prospective increases in environmental temperatures on their fitness.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study, temperature reaction norms were ascertained among 18 genetically defined, natural clones of the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum. These different clones have been isolated from 12 freshwater habitats along a latitudinal transect in Europe and from 3 tropical habitats (Indonesia). The sensitivity to increasing temperatures was estimated through the analysis of clone specific thermal tolerances and by relating those to current and predicted temperature data of their natural habitats.All investigated European clones seem to be thermal generalists with a broad thermal tolerance and similar optimum temperatures. The weak or missing co-variation of thermal tolerance with latitude does not imply local adaptation to thermal gradients; it rather suggests adaptive phenotypic plasticity among the whole European subpopulation. The tested Indonesian clones appear to be locally adapted to the less variable, tropical temperature regime and show higher tolerance limits, but lower tolerance breadths.

Conclusions/Significance

Due to the lack of local temperature adaptation within the European subpopulation, P. caudatum genotypes at the most southern edge of their geographic range seem to suffer from the predicted increase in magnitude and frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change.     

Global patterns of phylogenetic relatedness of invasive flowering plants

Aim

The ability of predicting which naturalized non-native species are likely to become invasive can help manage and prevent species invasions. The goal of this study is to test whether invasive angiosperm (flowering plant) species are a phylogenetically clustered subset of naturalized species at global, continental and regional scales, and to assess the relationships of phylogenetic relatedness of invasive species with climate condition (temperature and precipitation).

Location

Global.

Time period

Current.

Taxon

Angiosperms (flowering plants).

Methods

The globe is divided into 290 regions, which are grouped into seven biogeographic (continental) regions. Two phylogenetic metrics (net relatedness index and nearest taxon index), which represent different evolutionary depths, are used to quantify phylogenetic relatedness of invasive angiosperms, with respect to different tailor-made species pools. Phylogenetic relatedness of invasive angiosperms is related to climatic variables.

Results

The global assemblage of invasive angiosperm species is a strongly phylogenetically clustered subset of the species of the entire global angiosperm flora. Most invasive angiosperm assemblages are a phylogenetically clustered subset of their respective naturalized species pools, and phylogenetic clustering reflecting shallow evolutionary history is greater than that reflecting deep evolutionary history. In general, the phylogenetic relatedness of invasive species is greater in regions with lower temperature and precipitation across the world.

Main conclusions

The finding that invasive angiosperm assemblages across the globe are, in general, phylogenetically clustered subsets of their respective naturalized species pools has significant implications in biological conservation, particularly in predicting and controlling invasive species based on phylogenetic relatedness among naturalized species.     

Early-spring soil warming partially offsets the enhancement of alpine grassland aboveground productivity induced by warmer growing seasons on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Aims

The response of vegetation productivity to global warming is becoming a worldwide concern. While most reports on responses to warming trends are based on measured increases in air temperature, few studies have evaluated long-term variation in soil temperature and its impacts on vegetation productivity. Such impacts are especially important for high-latitude or high-altitude regions, where low temperature is recognized as the most critical limitation for plant growth.

Methods

We used Partial Least Squares regression to correlate long-term aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) data of an alpine grassland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau with daily air and soil temperatures during 1997–2011. We also analyzed temporal trends for air temperature and soil temperature at different depths.

Results

Soil temperatures have steadily increased at a rate of 0.4–0.9 °C per decade, whereas air temperatures showed no significant trend between 1997 and 2011. While temperature increases during the growing season (May–August) promoted aboveground productivity, warming before the growing season (March–April) had a negative effect on productivity. The negative effect was amplified in the soil layers, especially at 15 cm depth, where variation in aboveground productivity was dominated by early-spring soil warming, rather than by increasing temperature during the growing season.

Conclusions

Future warming, especially in winter and spring, may further reduce soil water availability in early spring, which may slow down or even reverse the increases in grassland aboveground productivity that have widely been reported on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

     

The effect of experimental warming on leaf functional traits, leaf structure and leaf biochemistry in Arabidopsis thaliana

Background  

The leaf is an important plant organ, and how it will respond to future global warming is a question that remains unanswered. The effects of experimental warming on leaf photosynthesis and respiration acclimation has been well studied so far, but relatively little information exists on the structural and biochemical responses to warming. However, such information is very important to better understand the plant responses to global warming. Therefore, we grew Arabidopsis thaliana at the three day/night temperatures of 23/18°C (ambient temperature), 25.5/20.5°C (elevated by 2.5°C) and 28/23°C (elevated by 5°C) to simulate the middle and the upper projected warming expected within the 21st century for this purpose.     

Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis

Background

The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species, especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900–2005. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis, and indicated that a 1°C increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year⁻¹. The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950–2005. Moreover, similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States.

Conclusions/Significance

These findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure, global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions.     

Effects of endogenous and exogenous processes on aboveground biomass stocks and dynamics in Andean forests

Tropical forests are paramount in regulating the global carbon cycle due to the storage of large amounts of carbon in their biomass. Using repeat censuses of permanent plots located at 15 sites in the Andes Mountains of northwest Colombia, we evaluate: (1) the relationship between aboveground biomass (AGB) stocks, AGB dynamics (mortality, productivity, and net change), and changes in temperature across a ca. 3000-m elevational gradient (≈?16.1 °C); (2) how AGB mortality and AGB productivity interact to determine net AGB change; and (3) the extent to which either fine-grain (0.04-ha) or coarse-grain (1-ha) processes determine the AGB dynamics of these forests. We did not find a significant relationship between elevation/temperature and biomass stocks. The net AGB sequestered each year by these forests (2.21?±?0.51 Mg ha^?1 year^?1), equivalent to approximately 1.09% of initial AGB, was primarily determined by tree growth. Both forest structural properties and global warming influenced AGB mortality and net change. AGB productivity increases with greater inequality of tree sizes, a pattern characteristic of forest patches recovering from disturbances. Overall, we find that global warming is triggering directional changes in species composition by thermophilization via increased tree mortality of species in the lower portions of their thermal ranges and that the inclusion of small-scale forest structural changes can effectively account for endogenous processes such as changes in forest structure. The inclusion of fine-grain processes in assessments of AGB dynamics could provide additional insights about the effects that ongoing climate change has on the functioning of tropical montane forests.     

Population growth lags in introduced species

When introduced to new ecosystems, species'' populations often grow immediately postrelease. Some introduced species, however, maintain a low population size for years or decades before sudden, rapid population growth is observed. Because exponential population growth always starts slowly, it can be difficult to distinguish species experiencing the early phases of slow exponential population growth (inherent lags) from those with actively delayed growth rates (prolonged lags). Introduced ungulates provide an excellent system in which to examine lags, because some introduced ungulate populations have demonstrated rapid population growth immediately postintroduction, while others have not. Using studies from the literature, we investigated which exotic ungulate species and populations (n = 36) showed prolonged population growth lags by comparing the doubling time of real ungulate populations to those predicted from exponential growth models for theoretical populations. Having identified the specific populations that displayed prolonged lags, we examined the impacts of several environmental and biological variables likely to influence the length of lag period. We found that seventeen populations (47%) showed significant prolonged population growth lags. We could not, however, determine the specific factors that contributed to the length of these lag phases, suggesting that these ungulate populations'' growth is idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. Introduced species that exhibit delayed growth should be closely monitored by managers, who must be proactive in controlling their growth to minimize the impact such populations may have on their environment.     

春季麻栎树干边材木质部液流垂直变化及其滞后效应

利用热扩散式边材液流茎流探针(TDP)和微型自动气象站组成的测定系统,对泰山林科院林场麻栎(Quercus acutissima)人工林树干不同高度边材液流及其相关环境因子进行了连续观测,对影响边材液流的主要环境因子进行了相关性和滞后效应分析。结果表明:同一立木,树干上位边材液流流速上升快,高峰期持续时间短,但高峰流速较高,最大流速在0.002 cm·s^-1以上;树干下位边材液流流速上升、下降慢,液流高峰期持续时间较长,最大流速不超过0.001 cm·s^-1。太阳净辐射是麻栎边材液流最主要的影响因子,且成正相关,空气温度、空气相对湿度对边材液流的影响较小,空气温度与麻栎边材液流的影响成正相关,相对湿度与边材液流速率成负相关。边材液流与主要环境因子日周期波动在时间上存在延迟效应,延迟效应因树干高度和环境因子而变。树干上、中和下部边材液流与太阳净辐射变化的滞后时间分为80、20和30 min,与空气温度的滞后时间分别为60、130和110 min,与空气相对湿度的滞后时间分别为170、160和90 min。     

Time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time‐lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate–vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large‐scale vegetation–climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time‐lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate‐driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time‐lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate‐driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time‐lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time‐lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982–2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time‐lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change.     

Water- and Plant-Mediated Responses of Ecosystem Carbon Fluxes to Warming and Nitrogen Addition on the Songnen Grassland in Northeast China

Background

Understanding how grasslands are affected by a long-term increase in temperature is crucial to predict the future impact of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Additionally, it is not clear how the effects of global warming on grassland productivity are going to be altered by increased N deposition and N addition.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In-situ canopy CO₂ exchange rates were measured in a meadow steppe subjected to 4-year warming and nitrogen addition treatments. Warming treatment reduced net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) and increased ecosystem respiration (ER); but had no significant impacts on gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). N addition increased NEE, ER and GEP. However, there were no significant interactions between N addition and warming. The variation of NEE during the four experimental years was correlated with soil water content, particularly during early spring, suggesting that water availability is a primary driver of carbon fluxes in the studied semi-arid grassland.

Conclusion/Significance

Ecosystem carbon fluxes in grassland ecosystems are sensitive to warming and N addition. In the studied water-limited grassland, both warming and N addition influence ecosystem carbon fluxes by affecting water availability, which is the primary driver in many arid and semiarid ecosystems. It remains unknown to what extent the long-term N addition would affect the turn-over of soil organic matter and the C sink size of this grassland.     

Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years

Background

The lack of instrumental data before the mid-19th-century limits our understanding of present warming trends. In the absence of direct measurements, we used proxies that are natural or historical archives recording past climatic changes. A gridded reconstruction of spring-summer temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen assemblages and ice cores. The majority of proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variation, they were completed by low-resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data.

Methodology/Principal Findings

An original spectral analog method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and to preserve long-term variations and the variability of temperature series. So we can replace the recent climate changes in a broader context of the past 1400 years. This preservation is possible because the method is not based on a calibration (regression) but on similarities between assemblages of proxies. The reconstruction of the April-September temperatures was validated with a Jack-knife technique. It was also compared to other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings.

Conclusions

We found that our results were accurate back to 750. Cold periods prior to the 20^th century can be explained partly by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) could be correlated to higher solar activity. During the 20^th century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise. Warm periods of the Middle Age were spatially more heterogeneous than last decades, and then locally it could have been warmer. However, at the continental scale, the last decades were clearly warmer than any period of the last 1400 years. The heterogeneity of MWP versus the homogeneity of the last decades is likely an argument that different forcings could have operated. These results support the fact that we are living a climate change in Europe never seen in the past 1400 years.