Modelling the unpredictability of future biodiversity in ecological networks

We consider the question of how accurately we can hope to predict future biodiversity in a world in which many interacting species are at risk of extinction. Simple models assuming that species’ extinctions occur independently are easily analysed, but do not account for the fact that many species depend on or otherwise interact with each other. In this paper we evaluate the effect of explicitly incorporating ecological dependencies on the predictive ability of models of extinction. In particular, we compare a model in which species’ extinction rates increase because of the extinction of their prey to a model in which the same average rate increase takes place, but in which extinctions occur independently from species to species. One might expect that including this ecological information would make the prediction of future biodiversity more accurate, but instead we find that accounting for food web dependencies reveals greater uncertainty. The expected loss of biodiversity over time is similar between the two models, but the variance in future biodiversity is considerably higher in the model that includes species interactions. This increased uncertainty is because of the non-independence of species—the tendency of two species to respond similarly to the loss of a species on which both depend. We use simulations to show that this increase in variance is robust to many variations of the model, and that its magnitude should be largest in food webs that are highly dependent on a few basal species. Our results should hold whenever ecological dependencies cause most species’ extinction risks to covary positively, and illustrate how more information does not necessarily improve our ability to predict future biodiversity loss.     

Beyond Anthropology,Towards Actuality1

Anthropology in Australia is at a critical juncture. This paper discusses the way in which the discipline has been challenged at the institutional level, in part due to pressures arising from economic rationalisation within universities. Anthropology, however, must take some responsibility for its condition. Psychology has established itself as the primary ‘human’ discipline to provide qualifications appropriate for professional employment. At a more scholarly level, anthropology's traditional zones of concern have been taken over by others, including history and cultural studies. Can we, and should we, demystify anthropology and its practices? Can we reposition anthropology with a broader vision of the human experience, and what will happen if we cannot?     

企业生物多样性信息披露: 调查、分析与建议

近年来我国每年发布《企业社会责任报告》近2,000份, 有相当比例包含生物多样性内容。但长期以来, 披露内容的实质性与可信度严重不足, 亟需引导、规范和审核。本文探讨建立我国企业生物多样性信息公开透明机制, 旨在解决两个主要问题: 一是风险规避, 二是资源调动。本文根据《生物多样性公约》相关规定, 首先梳理企业生物多样性信息披露国内外进展, 指出存在内容碎片化, 科学指标缺失, 结果难以比较, 投入产出、同业及历史数据缺乏比对分析等不足。其次, 采用5个生物多样性指标, 进一步对《企业社会责任报告评估指数》研究发现: 不同行业差异化明显、金融机构催化作用凸显、重视纳入制度战略框架、报告内容同质化严重、定性描述多于定量分析、货币化核算方法缺失、资金投入信息披露保守、未经第三方独立审核等特点。最后, 提出提高企业透明度的4项建议: (1)加强顶层设计纳入, (2)改进环境政策指引, (3)优化金融激励措施, (4)强化公司能力建设。这将为政府和金融部门量化生态影响, 管控投资风险, 实施扩大生物多样性融资决策提供支持。     

The value of coarse species range maps to inform local biodiversity conservation in a global context

Range maps of thousands of species, compiled and made freely available by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, are being increasingly applied to support spatial conservation planning. However, their coarse nature makes them prone to commission and omission errors, and they lack information on the variations in abundance within species’ distributions, calling into question their value to inform decisions at the fine scales at which conservation often takes place. Here, we tested if species ranges can reliably be used to estimate the responsibility of sites for the global conservation of species. We defined ‘specific responsibility’ as the fraction of a species’ population within a given site, considering it useful for prioritising species within sites; and defined ‘overall responsibility’ as the sum of specific responsibility across species within a site, assuming it informative of priorities among sites. Taking advantage of an exceptionally detailed dataset on the distribution and abundance of bird species at a near‐continental scale – a level of information rarely available to local decision‐makers – we created a benchmark against which we tested estimates of responsibility derived from range maps. We investigated approaches for improving these estimates by complementing range maps with plausibly available local data. We found that despite their coarse nature, range maps provided good estimates of sites’ overall responsibility, but relatively poor estimates of specific responsibility. Estimates were improved by combining range maps with local species lists or local abundance data, easily available through local surveys on the sites of interest, or simulated expert knowledge. Our results suggest that combining range maps with local data is a promising route for improving the effectiveness of local conservation decisions at contributing to reducing global biodiversity losses. This is all the more urgent in hyper‐diverse poorly‐known regions where conservation‐relevant decisions must proceed despite a paucity of biodiversity data.     

What does biodiversity actually do? A review for managers and policy makers

Conservation managers and policy makers must often justify the need for protection of biodiversity. However, results of scientific studies testing for a positive value of biodiversity in terms of community stability and ecosystem function have been complex and inconsistent. We review recent information on the consequences of loss of biodiversity for natural systems. The relationships described vary with scale of interest – for instance, biodiversity at local scales typically has strong effects on ecosystem function, although the opposite relationship is often found at regional scales. These inconsistencies lead to some concern as to whether these relationships can be used to justify biodiversity protection. This is particularly relevant to policy, where holistic protection of biodiversity has most often been mooted and justified. For managers, who most often work to protect single species, communities or ecosystem functions, biodiversity research has failed to address questions of critical concern such as consequences of the loss of rare species or the identification of functional keystone species. For the general public, we believe that the confusion and debate surrounding biodiversity and ecosystem function relationships is in danger of eroding the positive value society places on biodiversity. We further warn that using those relationships in policy documents as justifications for biodiversity protection is fraught with difficulties. Finally, we contend that biodiversity research has largely not addressed issues of concern to conservation managers, and list a set of priorities for relevant research on the consequences of biodiversity loss.     

SOS!濒临极限的生物多样性

本文论述了生物多样性的价值、多样性丧失的严重性和后果,以及多样性保护与持续利用的对策。文中强调指出,生物界中的每片基因,每一个物种,每一类生态系统对人类的持久生存都是无价之宝,任何多样性的丧失都是不可逆、不可再生的,因而对人类的损失是难以估量的。然而目前由于人类剧烈的活动干扰如滥砍滥伐、滥捕滥猎、环境污染、火灾、垦荒等,生物多样性丧失的速率怵目惊心！若不赶快行动起来,人类赖以生存的生物多样性将所剩无几,人类生存的危机也将难以避免。从保护与利用及其协同发展出发,本文呼吁要大力开展生物多样性的研究和开发工作,目的一方面在于进一步加强生物多样性的基础调查和研究工作,另一方面在于使生物多样性资源更好地为人类造福。为减缓目前生物多样性所承受的压力及促进其恢复,本文建议对完全依赖野生生物资源的传统产业征收“资源更新税”;而对开发和利用生物多样性资源,不仅不影响野生资源,而且能替代它,或减缓其压力,或促进其恢复的高新技术产业,在税收上给予特别优惠。     

Biodiversitätsforschung – wohin geht die Reise?

Biodiversity and biodiversity politics Extrapolations for a range of indicators suggest that based on current trends, pressures on biodiversity will continue to increase (Global Biodiversity Outlook 4, 2014). Since services of nature, like fertile soil, clear water and clean air are achieved by consortia of organisms rather than by individual species, they are already endangered. This holds, in spite of the fact, that only 10% of the earth's organisms are known to science and that therefore the loss caused by global change cannot be reliably quantified. Today, science develops new methods for recording consortia of coexisting organisms in a habitat. With the Convention on Biological Diversity, biodiversity has become a matter of politics which is welcome with respect to species and habitat conservation, but the concern of biopiracy creates bureaucratic hurdles hindering research. The most recent achievement is IPBES (Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn), which strives to bring more science into biodiversity politics.     

Improving the science-policy dialogue to meet the challenges of biodiversity conservation: having conversations rather than talking at one-another

A better, more effective dialogue is needed between biodiversity science and policy to underpin the sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity. Many initiatives exist to improve communication, but these largely conform to a ‘linear’ or technocratic model of communication in which scientific “facts” are transmitted directly to policy advisers to “solve problems”. While this model can help start a dialogue, it is, on its own, insufficient, as decision taking is complex, iterative and often selective in the information used. Here, we draw on the literature, interviews and a workshop with individuals working at the interface between biodiversity science and government policy development to present practical recommendations aimed at individuals, teams, organisations and funders. Building on these recommendations, we stress the need to: (a) frame research and policy jointly; (b) promote inter- and trans-disciplinary research and “multi-domain” working groups that include both scientists and policy makers from various fields and sectors; (c) put in place structures and incentive schemes that support interactive dialogue in the long-term. These are changes that are needed in light of continuing loss of biodiversity and its consequences for societal dependence on and benefits from nature.     

Keystone effects of an alien top-predator stem extinctions of native mammals

Alien predators can have catastrophic effects on ecosystems and are thought to be much more harmful to biodiversity than their native counterparts. However, trophic cascade theory and the mesopredator release hypothesis predict that the removal of top predators will result in the reorganization of trophic webs and loss of biodiversity. Using field data collected throughout arid Australia, we provide evidence that removal of an alien top-predator, the dingo, has cascading effects through lower trophic levels. Dingo removal was linked to increased activity of herbivores and an invasive mesopredator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), and to the loss of grass cover and native species of small mammals. Using species distribution data, we predict that reintroducing or maintaining dingo populations would produce a net benefit for the conservation of threatened native mammals across greater than 2.42 × 10⁶ km² of Australia. Our study provides evidence that an alien top predator can assume a keystone role and be beneficial for biodiversity conservation, and also that mammalian carnivores more generally can generate strong trophic cascades in terrestrial ecosystems.     

Why artificial light at night should be a focus for global change research in the 21st century

The environmental impacts of artificial light at night have been a rapidly growing field of global change science in recent years. Yet, light pollution has not achieved parity with other global change phenomena in the level of concern and interest it receives from the scientific community, government and nongovernmental organizations. This is despite the globally widespread, expanding and changing nature of night‐time lighting and the immediacy, severity and phylogenetic breath of its impacts. In this opinion piece, we evidence 10 reasons why artificial light at night should be a focus for global change research in the 21st century. Our reasons extend beyond those concerned principally with the environment, to also include impacts on human health, culture and biodiversity conservation more generally. We conclude that the growing use of night‐time lighting will continue to raise numerous ecological, human health and cultural issues, but that opportunities exist to mitigate its impacts by combining novel technologies with sound scientific evidence. The potential gains from appropriate management extend far beyond those for the environment, indeed it may play a key role in transitioning towards a more sustainable society.     

Artenschwund trotz Naturschutz

Species loss despite nature conservation: need for action and research About 40 per cent of all plant and animal species occurring in Germany (insects, mammals, fish, birds, amphibians and reptiles) are endangered or threatened with extinction; 3–4 per cent are already considered lost. A comparison with other European countries shows that the risk situation in Germany is also very serious from an international point of view. In order to better anchor nature conservation in modern society as a prerequisite for globally sustainable development, it is necessary (1) to rethink and change the actions of each individual through education, communication and discussion; (2) to refocus policy and existing funding instruments; (3) to strengthen biodiversity and nature conservation concerns in and through universities and colleges, and (4) to invest in nature conservation in order to preserve nature as the basis of human life (ecosystem services) and on account of its intrinsic value. Conservation must be economically viable. This should not only be the case for farmers, but also for any land use that meets the requirements of nature conservation. Any conservation effort should be rewarded. To ensure that the actually set and clearly defined objectives of the EU nature conservation directives can be achieved, the Federal Working Group on Nature Conservation, Landscape Conservation and Recreation (LANA) predicts that at least 1.4 billion euros additionally will be needed annually. This would correspond to about 17 euros per inhabitant and year. This comparatively small amount would more than double the budget available in Germany for the protection of biodiversity.     

整合空间信息在生物多样性丧失等研究中的重要性

无数证据表明,地球可能正经历着有史以来的第六次物种大灭绝。在这一背景下,研究生物多样性丧失机制及其对生态系统功能的影响具有重要意义。从先前的相关研究中,已逐渐清晰地认识到造成多样性丧失的几大机制,并对这些机制发生的空间尺度有了一定了解。然而,空间本身对多样性丧失研究的影响仍被该领域的很多研究所忽视。因为生物多样性丧失过程发生在不同空间尺度中,所造成的多样性丧失格局也具有不同的空间尺度特征。忽略空间信息很可能会对多样性丧失等相关研究造成很大干扰,甚至得出错误的结论,其结果也很难正确地运用于不同空间尺度的多样性保护当中。整合空间信息已成为当前生物多样性丧失研究,乃至整个生态学研究的前沿和热点之一。为促进这一趋势在国内的发展,将结合多样性丧失的估计与监测、几大多样性丧失机制(全球环境变化与生境片段化、生物入侵等)来阐述空间信息对当前及今后多样性丧失机制研究的重要性,并用实例展示未充分考虑空间信息而可能造成的后果。最后探讨我国当前科技条件下进行整合空间信息的生物多样性丧失等研究的可行性。     

生物多样性保护适应气候变化的管理策略

应对气候变化和保护生物多样性是2大全球性热点环境问题。气候变化导致物种多样性丧失、生态系统服务降低和区域生态安全屏障功能受损,威胁到中国国土生态安全格局和生态脆弱区域的可持续发展,给生物多样性保护带来新的挑战。做好生物多样性保护适应气候变化的风险管理工作,既是生物多样性应对气候变化风险的必要措施,也是减缓气候变化的重要途径。结合爱知目标10的实现情况,分析了欧盟、澳大利亚、美国等发达国家发布的生物多样性适应气候变化技术政策制定情况、中国生物多样性应对气候变化进展情况,剖析了中国生物多样性保护适应气候变化存在的问题,包括生物多样性应对气候变化的科学认知亟待提高、生物多样性保护适应气候变化的能力建设不足、自然保护地之间缺乏适应气候变化的生态廊道网络、生物多样性保护适应气候变化的技术标准缺乏。研究提出了中国生物多样性应对气候变化的适应性管理策略,包括制定《中国生物多样性保护协同应对气候变化的国家方案》、加强生物多样性保护适应气候变化的能力建设、开展自然保护区适应气候变化的风险管理试点、强化生物多样性应对气候变化的科技支撑,以期为推进纳入气候变化风险管理的生物多样性保护工作提供决策依据。     

Top predators as biodiversity regulators: the dingo Canis lupus dingo as a case study

Top‐order predators often have positive effects on biological diversity owing to their key functional roles in regulating trophic cascades and other ecological processes. Their loss has been identified as a major factor contributing to the decline of biodiversity in both aquatic and terrestrial systems. Consequently, restoring and maintaining the ecological function of top predators is a critical global imperative. Here we review studies of the ecological effects of the dingo Canis lupus dingo, Australia's largest land predator, using this as a case study to explore the influence of a top predator on biodiversity at a continental scale. The dingo was introduced to Australia by people at least 3500 years ago and has an ambiguous status owing to its brief history on the continent, its adverse impacts on livestock production and its role as an ecosystem architect. A large body of research now indicates that dingoes regulate ecological cascades, particularly in arid Australia, and that the removal of dingoes results in an increase in the abundances and impacts of herbivores and invasive mesopredators, most notably the red fox Vulpes vulpes. The loss of dingoes has been linked to widespread losses of small and medium‐sized native mammals, the depletion of plant biomass due to the effects of irrupting herbivore populations and increased predation rates by red foxes. We outline a suite of conceptual models to describe the effects of dingoes on vertebrate populations across different Australian environments. Finally, we discuss key issues that require consideration or warrant research before the ecological effects of dingoes can be incorporated formally into biodiversity conservation programs.     

A Biodiversity Indicators Dashboard: Addressing Challenges to Monitoring Progress towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets Using Disaggregated Global Data

Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world''s governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity''s “Aichi Targets”. These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong) and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity “dashboard” – a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate), state of species (Red List Index), conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas), and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision). Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the protection of natural resources.     

灾害威胁下的山地世界遗产:以瓦斯卡兰为例

山脉一直激励着人们前行，并且常常被认为是神圣的所在。近40年间，山地世界遗产的完整性受到自然灾害的威胁，不仅破坏了山地上游的生物多样性、地质多样性和特殊的自然特征，更迫使下游原住民（山地景观的保护者）和当地社区变得更加脆弱。以常年遭受雪崩、洪水、地震灾害威胁的秘鲁安第斯山地区域上游瓦斯卡兰国家公园及其下游城市瓦拉斯为研究对象，分析其灾害史，并通过遥感可视化技术对其地表温度以及水文进行解析，为瓦斯卡兰及其下游城市探索合理的山地遗产灾害风险管控和生态自愈途径，为全球山地世界遗产地上游区域恢复宝贵的可再生自然资源，更为山地下游城市村落创造真正的安全家园打下牢固的基础，探索人与自然共同抵御灾害的潜能。     

Shared ancestry influences community stability by altering competitive interactions: evidence from a laboratory microcosm experiment using freshwater green algae

The impact of biodiversity on the stability of ecological communities has been debated among biologists for more than a century. Recently summarized empirical evidence suggests that biodiversity tends to enhance the temporal stability of community-level properties such as biomass; however, the underlying mechanisms driving this relationship remain poorly understood. Here, we report the results of a microcosm study in which we used simplified systems of freshwater microalgae to explore how the phylogenetic relatedness of species influences the temporal stability of community biomass by altering the nature of their competitive interactions. We show that combinations of two species that are more evolutionarily divergent tend to have lower temporal stability of biomass. In part, this is due to negative ‘selection effects’ in which bicultures composed of distantly related species are more likely to contain strong competitors that achieve low biomass. In addition, bicultures of distantly related species had on average weaker competitive interactions, which reduced compensatory dynamics and decreased the stability of community biomass. Our results demonstrate that evolutionary history plays a key role in controlling the mechanisms, which give rise to diversity–stability relationships. As such, patterns of shared ancestry may help us predict the ecosystem-level consequences of biodiversity loss.     

Priority areas for the conservation of South African vegetation: a coarse-filter approach

Abstract.  South Africa has an important responsibility to global biodiversity conservation, but a largely inadequate conservation area network for addressing this responsibility. This study employs a coarse-filter approach based on 68 potential vegetation units to identify areas that are largely transformed, degraded or impacted upon by road-effects. The assessment highlights broad vegetation types that face high biodiversity losses currently or in the near future due to human impacts. Most vegetation types contain large tracts of natural vegetation, with little degradation, transformation or impacts from road networks. Regions in the grasslands, fynbos and forest biomes are worst affected. Very few of the vegetation types are adequately protected according to the IUCN's 10% protected area conservation target, with the fynbos and savanna biomes containing a few vegetation types that do achieve this arbitrary goal. This investigation identifies areas where limited conservation resources should be concentrated by identifying vegetation types with high levels of anthropogenic land use threats and associated current and potential biodiversity loss.     

The state and conservation of Southeast Asian biodiversity

Southeast Asia is a region of conservation concern due to heavy losses of its native habitats. In this overview, we highlight the conservation importance of Southeast Asia by comparing its degree of species endemism and endangerment, and its rate of deforestation with other tropical regions (i.e., Meso-America, South America, and Sub-Saharan Africa). Southeast Asia contains the highest mean proportion of country-endemic bird (9%) and mammal species (11%). This region also has the highest proportion of threatened vascular plant, reptile, bird, and mammal species. Furthermore, not only is Southeast Asia’s annual deforestation rate the highest in the tropics, but it has also increased between the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2005. This could result in projected losses of 13–85% of biodiversity in the region by 2100. Secondary habitat restoration, at least in certain countries, would allow for some amelioration of biodiversity loss and thus potentially lower the currently predicted extinction rates. Nonetheless, urgent conservation actions are needed. Conservation initiatives should include public education, sustaining livelihoods, and ways to enhance the sustainability of agriculture and increase the capacity of conservation institutions. Furthermore, these actions should be country-specific and not ignore areas heavily populated by humans, as they can also harbour high numbers of threatened species. We urge that cooperative conservation initiatives be undertaken and support (e.g., capacity-building) be given by more developed countries in the region and beyond.     

Erasing a European biodiversity hot-spot: Open woodlands,veteran trees and mature forests succumb to forestry intensification,succession, and logging in a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve

Open woodlands are among the biologically richest habitats of the temperate zone. Although open woodlands were much more common in the past and covered large areas of Europe, their original cover and magnitude of their loss remain mostly unknown. Here, we quantify the loss of open woodlands and assess the potential for their restoration in an internationally protected biodiversity hot-spot, floodplain woodlands of lower Thaya and March rivers of Dolní Morava UNESCO Biosphere Reserve in Czech Republic. Aerial photographs from years 1938 and 2009 were used to analyse changes in forest canopy closure across an area of 146 km² and separately for 270 ha of nature reserves found in the area. Forestry maps and aerial photographs were used to analyse changes in forest age structure. Between 1938 and 2009, expansion of closed-canopy forest reduced open woodlands cover from 41% to 5.7% of total wooded area, or 68.5% to 14.1% in the state reserves respectively. Logging has led to a decrease in mature forest cover from 45% to 26% between 1990 and 2009. State reserves prevented logging, but not open woodlands loss. The magnitude of open woodlands loss parallels that of tropical habitats, but has gone unabated by nature conservation. Opportunities to restore open woodlands and conserve associated biodiversity in the internationally protected (e.g. UNESCO, Natura 2000), mostly state-owned, woodlands are being compromised by rapid logging. Our results also point to the low efficiency of international conservation measures in post-communist members of European Union.