Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use

Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km² is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km² by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.     

Full carbon and greenhouse gas balances of fertilized and nonfertilized reed canary grass cultivations on an abandoned peat extraction area in a dry year

Bioenergy crop cultivation on former peat extraction areas is a potential after‐use option that provides a source of renewable energy while mitigating climate change through enhanced carbon (C) sequestration. This study investigated the full C and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances of fertilized (RCG‐F) and nonfertilized (RCG‐C) reed canary grass (RCG; Phalaris arundinacea) cultivation compared to bare peat (BP) soil within an abandoned peat extraction area in western Estonia during a dry year. Vegetation sampling, static chamber and lysimeter measurements were carried out to estimate above‐ and belowground biomass production and allocation, fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) in cultivated strips and drainage ditches as well as the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export, respectively. Heterotrophic respiration was determined from vegetation‐free trenched plots. Fertilization increased the above‐ to belowground biomass production ratio and the autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration ratio. The full C balance (incl. CO₂, CH₄ and DOC fluxes from strips and ditches) was 96, 215 and 180 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in RCG‐F, RCG‐C and BP, respectively, suggesting that all treatments acted as C sources during the dry year. The C balance was driven by variations in the net CO₂ exchange, whereas the combined contribution of CH₄ and DOC fluxes was <5%. The GHG balances were 3.6, 7.9 and 6.6 t CO₂ eq ha^?1 yr^?1 in RCG‐F, RCG‐C and BP, respectively. The CO₂ exchange was also the dominant component of the GHG balance, while the contributions of CH₄ and N₂O were <1% and 1–6%, respectively. Overall, this study suggests that maximizing plant growth and the associated CO₂ uptake through adequate water and nutrient supply is a key prerequisite for ensuring sustainable high yields and climate benefits in RCG cultivations established on organic soils following drainage and peat extraction.     

Spatial evaluation of switchgrass productivity under historical and future climate scenarios in Michigan

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) productivity on marginal and fertile lands has not been thoroughly evaluated in a systematic manner that includes soil–crop–weather–management interactions and to quantify the risk of failure or success in growing the crop. We used the Systems Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) model to identify areas with low risk of failing to having more than 8000 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 switchgrass aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) under rainfed and unfertilized conditions. In addition, we diagnosed constraining factors for switchgrass growth, and tested the effect of nitrogen fertilizer application on plant productivity across Michigan for 30 years under three climate scenarios (baseline climate in 1981–2010, future climate with emissions using RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0). We determined that <16% of land in Michigan may have at least 8 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 ANPP under rainfed and unfertilized management with a low risk of failure. Of the productive low‐risk land, about 25% was marginal land, with more than 80% of which was affected by limited water availability due to low soil water‐holding capacity and shallow depth. About 80% of the marginal land was N limited under baseline conditions, but that percentage decreased to 58.5% and 42.1% under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 climate scenarios, respectively, partly due to shorter growing season, smaller plants and less N demand. We also found that the majority of Michigan's land could have high switchgrass ANPP and low risk of failure with no more than 60 kgN ha^?1 fertilizer input. We believe that the methodology used in this study works at different spatial scales, as well as for other biofuel crops.     

Seasonal biomass allocation in a boreal perennial grass (Phalaris arundinacea L.) under elevated temperature and CO2 with varying water regimes

The aim of this study was to analyze and model how biomass is allocated to the leaves, stems, and roots of perennial grass (reed canary grass, Phalaris arundinacea L., hereafter RCG) under elevated temperature (ET) (+approx. 3 °C) and CO₂ (approx. 700 μmol mol^?1) and with variable groundwater levels (high to low water levels) in a boreal environment. For this purpose, RCG plants were grown in environmentally controlled chambers over two growing seasons (April–September of 2009 and 2010), and the plant organ biomass (leaves, stems, and roots) was measured seven times over the entire growing season. The results showed that biomass production was mainly allocated to the leaves (LMF) and stems (SMF) early in the growing season, to the stems in the middle of the growing season, and to the roots (RMF) later in the growing season. Compared to ambient conditions, ET treatments increased LMF and SMF, and decreased RMF over the growing season under well-water conditions. Under low groundwater level, ET treatments decreased LMF and increased RMF throughout the growing season, and increased SMF in early periods and then decreased later in the growing season. CO₂ enrichment did not significantly affect the seasonal allocation pattern between plant organs. The effect of the groundwater level on biomass allocation was stronger than that of the climatic treatments. In conclusion, plant phenology controlled the seasonal course of biomass allocation in RCG and climatic treatments affected biomass allocation to each of the three plant organs, while the direction and extent of climate-related changes in biomass allocation depended on the availability of groundwater. The influence of groundwater level appeared to be crucial for the carbon gain regarding the production of RCG biomass for energy purpose and the concurrent sequestration of carbon in soils under changing climate in the mire sites used to cultivate RCG.     

Ash as a phosphorus fertilizer to reed canary grass: effects of nutrient and heavy metal composition on plant and soil

Fertilization effects and risks of heavy metal enrichment were studied in a field experiment, in which plots of reed canary grass (RCG) were treated annually with three different fertilizers: Ash from co‐combustion of RCG and municipal wastes (mixed ash), pure RCG ash, and commercial fertilizer (control). RCG ash is a waste product that is currently expensive to dispose of. The amounts of nutrients applied annually were 100 kg ha^?1 N, 15 kg ha^?1 P, and 80 kg ha^?1 K in all treatments. In the ash treatments, all P derived from ash, whereas N and part of the K were supplemented by fertilizers. The amount of heavy metals exceeded the limits set by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency for all elements analyzed in the mixed ash and for Ni and Cr in the RCG ash. There were no significant differences between treatments in terms of RCG dry matter yield obtained at harvest in spring, or in heavy metal concentrations in the biomass. Soil samples from 0–5 cm, 5–10 cm, and 10–20 cm below the surface showed significant differences between treatments for the concentration of Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn, with higher concentrations in plots fertilized with mixed ash than in the control. Neither spring yield nor soil available P was reduced by using ash instead of mineral P fertilizer, suggesting that pure RCG ash can be used to complement commercial fertilizer, albeit less frequently than here. However, ash derived from co‐combusting RCG with different waste materials (mixed ash treatment) should not be used in RCG production due to the high heavy metal content.     

Comparative assessment of ecosystem C exchange in Miscanthus and reed canary grass during early establishment

Land‐use change to bioenergy crop production can contribute towards addressing the dual challenges of greenhouse gas mitigation and energy security. Realisation of the mitigation potential of bioenergy crops is, however, dependent on suitable crop selection and full assessment of the carbon (C) emissions associated with land conversion. Using eddy covariance‐based estimates, ecosystem C exchange was studied during the early‐establishment phase of two perennial crops, C₃ reed canary grass (RCG) and C₄ Miscanthus, planted on former grassland in Ireland. Crop development was the main determinant of net carbon exchange in the Miscanthus crop, restricting significant net C uptake during the first 2 years of establishment. The Miscanthus ecosystem switched from being a net C source in the conversion year to a strong net C sink (?411 ± 63 g C m^?2) in the third year, driven by significant above‐ground growth and leaf expansion. For RCG, early establishment and rapid canopy development facilitated a net C sink in the first 2 years of growth (?319 ± 57 (post‐planting) and ?397 ± 114 g C m^?2, respectively). Peak seasonal C uptake occurred three months earlier in RCG (May) than Miscanthus (August), however Miscanthus sustained net C uptake longer into the autumn and was close to C‐neutral in winter. Leaf longevity is therefore a key advantage of C₄ Miscanthus in temperate climates. Further increases in productivity are projected as Miscanthus reaches maturity and are likely to further enhance the C sink potential of Miscanthus relative to RCG.     

Effects of Elevated CO2 and Temperature on Biomass Growth and Allocation in a Boreal Bioenergy Crop (Phalaris arundinacea L.) from Young and Old Cultivations

An auto-controlled climate system was used to study how a boreal bioenergy crop (reed canary grass, Phalaris arundinacea L., hereafter RCG) responded to a warming climate and elevated CO₂. Over one growing season (April–September of 2009), RCG from young and old cultivations (3 years [3-year] and 10 years [10-year]) was grown in closed chambers under ambient conditions (CON), elevated CO₂ (EC, approximately 700 μmol?mol^?1), elevated temperature (ET, ambient + approximately 3 °C) and elevated temperature and CO₂ (ETC). The treatments were replicated four times. Throughout the growing season, the above-ground (leaf and stem biomass) and below-ground biomasses were measured six times, representing various developmental stages (early stages: the first three stages, and late stages: the last three stages). Compared to the growth observed under CON, EC enhanced RCG biomass growth over the whole growing season (p?<?0.05), whereas ET increased RCG biomass growth in early stages but decreased growth in late stages, regardless of the cultivation age. However, the negative effect of ET later in the growing season was partially mitigated by CO₂ enrichment. Compared to CON plants, the final total biomass was 18 % higher for 3-year plants and 8 % higher for 10-year plants grown under EC. In comparison, for 3-year and 10-year plants, the biomass was 5 and 3 % lower under ET and 7 and 4 % greater under ETC, respectively. Under EC, the below-ground growth contributed more to the total biomass growth compared to the above-ground portion. The opposite situation was observed under ET and ETC. The climate-related changes in biomass growth were smaller in the old cultivation than in the young cultivation due to the lower net assimilation rate and lower specific leaf area in the old cultivation plants.     

Phytochemical complementarities among endophyte-infected tall fescue, reed canarygrass, birdsfoot trefoil and alfalfa affect cattle foraging

We determined whether plant diversity and sequence of plant ingestion affected foraging when cattle chose from plants that varied in concentrations of alkaloids, tannins and saponins. We hypothesized cattle that ate high-alkaloid grasses (endophyte-infected tall fescue (TF) or reed canarygrass (RCG)) would prefer forages high in tannins (birdsfoot trefoil, BFT+) or saponins (alfalfa, ALF+), because tannins and saponins can bind to alkaloids, presumably reducing their absorption. We further hypothesized that forages with tannins or saponins consumed before, rather than after, foraging on high-alkaloid grasses would promote greater use of those grasses presumably by binding to alkaloids, thereby reducing their absorption. In Phase 1, cattle (n = 32) grazed on either high (+) or low (-) alkaloid grass (TF or RCG) pastures for 30 min each morning at 0600 h and were then offered a choice of BFT+, BFT-, ALF+ and ALF- for 60 min each day for 12 days. In Phase 2, cattle (n = 32) were first offered a choice of BFT+ or ALF+ for 30 min at 0600 h and then placed on grass (TF+ or -, or RCG+ or -) pastures for 60 min for 12 days. In both phases, we had four spatial replications of four treatments with 2 per calves assigned to each of the 16 replications per treatment combinations. Scan samples of individuals at 2-min intervals were used to determine incidence of foraging on each plant species (%). Cattle grazed more on RCG than on TF in Phases 1 (62% v. 27%; P = 0.0015) and 2 (71% v. 32%; P = 0.0005). In Phase 1, cattle that first foraged on RCG+ or TF- subsequently preferred ALF over BFT, whereas cattle offered RCG- or TF+ foraged on ALF and BFT equally. Foraging by cattle on RCG was cyclic during Phase 1, whereas cattle foraging on TF markedly decreased incidence of use of TF from 41% to only 16% by the end of the 12-day trial (P = 0.0029). Contrary to the cyclic (RCG) or steadily declining (TF) use of grasses in Phase 1, cattle steadily and dramatically increased foraging on both RCG and TF throughout Phase 2, when they first grazed BFT+ or ALF+ followed by high-alkaloid grasses (P = 0.0159). Our findings suggest that in plant species the sequence of ingestion influenced foraging behavior of cattle and that secondary compounds influenced those responses.     

Seasonal Dynamics of Aboveground and Belowground Biomass and Nutrient Accumulation and Remobilization in Giant Reed (Arundo donax L.): A Three-Year Study on Marginal Land

Giant reed (Arundo donax L.) is a perennial rhizomatous grass that shows promise as a bioenergy crop in the Mediterranean environment. The species has spread throughout the world, catalyzed by human activity, though also as a result of its intrinsic robustness, adaptability, and versatility. Giant reed is able to thrive across a wide range of soil types and is tolerant to drought, salinity, and flooding. This tolerance to environmental stresses is significant and could mean that growing energy crops on marginal land is one possible strategy for reducing competition for land with food production and for improving soil quality. We devised an experiment in which we cultivated giant reed in a sandy loam soil with low nutrient availability. Our goal was to evaluate the dynamics of aboveground and belowground biomass and assess the nutrient dynamics of this grass species, focusing particularly on nutrient accumulation and remobilization. The species demonstrated good productivity potential: In the third year, aboveground dry biomass yield reached around 20 t?ha^?1, with a corresponding rhizome dry biomass yield of 16 t?ha^?1. Results for this species were characterized by low nutrient contents in the aboveground biomass at the end of the growing season, and its rhizome proved able to support growth over the spring period and to store nutrients in the autumn. Nevertheless, the adaptability of giant reed to marginal land and the role of its belowground biomass should be investigated over the long-term, and any further research should focus on its potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and maintain soil fertility.     

Atmospheric impact of bioenergy based on perennial crop (reed canary grass,Phalaris arundinaceae,L.) cultivation on a drained boreal organic soil

Marginal organic soils, abundant in the boreal region, are being increasingly used for bioenergy crop cultivation. Using long‐term field experimental data on greenhouse gas (GHG) balance from a perennial bioenergy crop [reed canary grass (RCG), Phalaris arundinaceae L.] cultivated on a drained organic soil as an example, we show here for the first time that, with a proper cultivation and land‐use practice, environmentally sound bioenergy production is possible on these problematic soil types. We performed a life cycle assessment (LCA) for RCG on this organic soil. We found that, on an average, this system produces 40% less CO₂‐equivalents per MWh of energy in comparison with a conventional energy source such as coal. Climatic conditions regulating the RCG carbon exchange processes have a high impact on the benefits from this bioenergy production system. Under appropriate hydrological conditions, this system can even be carbon‐negative. An LCA sensitivity analysis revealed that net ecosystem CO₂ exchange and crop yield are the major LCA components, while non‐CO₂ GHG emissions and costs associated with crop production are the minor ones. Net bioenergy GHG emissions resulting from restricted net CO₂ uptake and low crop yields, due to climatic and moisture stress during dry years, were comparable with coal emissions. However, net bioenergy emissions during wet years with high net uptake and crop yield were only a third of the coal emissions. As long‐term experimental data on GHG balance of bioenergy production are scarce, scientific data stemming from field experiments are needed in shaping renewable energy source policies.     

Fluxes of nitrous oxide and methane on an abandoned peat extraction site: Effect of reed canary grass cultivation

Drained organic soils are among the most risky soil types as far as their greenhouse gas emissions are considered. Reed canary grass (RCG) is a potential bioenergy crop in the boreal region, but the atmospheric impact of its cultivation is unknown. The fluxes of N₂O and CH₄ were measured from an abandoned peat extraction site (an organic soil) cultivated with RCG using static chamber and snow gradient techniques. The fluxes were measured also at an adjacent site which is under active peat extraction and it is devoid of any vegetation (BP site). The 4-year average annual N₂O emissions were low being 0.1 and 0.01 g N₂O m⁻² a⁻¹ at the RCG and BP sites, respectively. The corresponding mean annual CH₄ emissions from the RCG and BP sites were also low (0.4 g and 0.9 g CH₄ m⁻² a⁻¹). These results highlight for the first time that there are organic soils where cultivation of perennial bioenergy crops is possible with low N₂O and CH₄ emissions.     

Riparian populations of minnesota reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) are most likely native,based on SNPs (DArTseqLD)

The native vs. exotic status of reed canarygrass (RCG), a major invasive species of Minnesota wetlands, is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate this native vs. exotic status to enhance its management. Genetic comparison of wild RCG populations from six Minnesota and six Czech Republic rivers was performed. A total of 2521 polymorphic SNP markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms) were used to evaluate 478 RCG samples across all collections. In the PCoA, all (n = 256) tested extant wild, riparian RCG genotypes from six Minnesota Rivers and six Czech Republic Rivers were genetically distinct, although some SNPs were common in both populations since they are the same species. DAPC analysis also resulted in the formation of two primary clusters separating the Minnesota Rivers and Czech Republic Rivers riparian samples, with little overlap; STRUCTURE analysis also supported this clustering with k = 4 groups as it separated the Czech Republic Rivers populations into three groups, along with Minnesota Rivers. The uniformity of PCoA, DAPC, STRUCTURE, and Evanno results indicates the distinct separation of Minnesota Rivers and Czech Republic Rivers populations. Portions of the genome (specific SNPs) are preserved or in common across continents, as indicated by STRUCTURE similarities. Nonetheless, overall significant SNP differences between the continents indicate that the Minnesota riparian populations are distinct enough from the European (Czech) collections to be delineated as native N. American RCG. PCoA of all the Minnesota RCG collections clustered Minnesota Rivers, Herbarium, Extant Herbarium, Research Field and Native Field collections together. STRUCTURE analysis (k = 2; Evanno) divided these Minnesota collections from the Commercial Field and Cultivars collections. There are two genetically distinct groups of RCG in Minnesota and since the Minnesota Rivers, the Research Field, the Native Field and pre-1930 herbaria collections clustered together, they are most likely native N. American types. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicated that the genetic variation was more significant within, rather than among, the RCG populations. Native, historic herbaria types cluster together with all wild RCG river populations in Minnesota, all of which were distinct from those in Central Europe, suggesting native RCG type persistence in N. America. Also, cultivated forage types of RCG are distinct from wild RCG Minnesota river populations. The SNP genetic data shows that riparian Minnesota RCG populations are native. These data will facilitate future management strategies to control RCG as a native, but invasive, species.

     

Biological consequences of invasion by reed canary grass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phalaris arundinacea</Emphasis>)

Although they are typically assumed to be negative, the consequences of plant invasions for native diversity or biological integrity are seldom broadly quantified (i.e., for multiple taxa or across large regions). We investigated the impacts associated with invasion of wetlands by reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea L.; RCG) on plants and several animal groups. In a local study, we compared plants, arthropods, and small mammals on treatment plots with reduced RCG dominance to those on highly invaded plots. We also conducted a companion study, where we measured RCG dominance and plants, arthropods, and birds in 82 randomly selected wetlands across Illinois (USA) to determine if our experimental results were consistent in communities across the region. Plant diversity, floristic quality, and diversity and abundance of Homopteran insects decreased with RCG dominance in all instances. Richness and abundance of all other arthropods decreased with increasing RCG in the local study, but no trend was detected in communities statewide. No relationship between total abundance or richness of small mammals (local) or birds (statewide) with RCG was detected. However, voles and shrews were more abundant, and mice less abundant, in RCG-dominated plots. These results support the hypothesis that there are negative effects for multiple taxa from RCG invasion. Because negative effects observed in the local study either corroborated, or were neutral with respect to results from statewide surveys, they suggest that native biodiversity and biological integrity are being dampened across wide areas of this invader’s range.     

Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: a global assessment

The potential for climate change mitigation by bioenergy crops and terrestrial carbon sinks has been the object of intensive research in the past decade. There has been much debate about whether energy crops used to offset fossil fuel use, or carbon sequestration in forests, would provide the best climate mitigation benefit. Most current food cropland is unlikely to be used for bioenergy, but in many regions of the world, a proportion of cropland is being abandoned, particularly marginal croplands, and some of this land is now being used for bioenergy. In this study, we assess the consequences of land‐use change on cropland. We first identify areas where cropland is so productive that it may never be converted and assess the potential of the remaining cropland to mitigate climate change by identifying which alternative land use provides the best climate benefit: C₄ grass bioenergy crops, coppiced woody energy crops or allowing forest regrowth to create a carbon sink. We do not present this as a scenario of land‐use change – we simply assess the best option in any given global location should a land‐use change occur. To do this, we use global biomass potential studies based on food crop productivity, forest inventory data and dynamic global vegetation models to provide, for the first time, a global comparison of the climate change implications of either deploying bioenergy crops or allowing forest regeneration on current crop land, over a period of 20 years starting in the nominal year of 2000 ad . Globally, the extent of cropland on which conversion to energy crops or forest would result in a net carbon loss, and therefore likely always to remain as cropland, was estimated to be about 420.1 Mha, or 35.6% of the total cropland in Africa, 40.3% in Asia and Russia Federation, 30.8% in Europe‐25, 48.4% in North America, 13.7% in South America and 58.5% in Oceania. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars are the bioenergy feedstock with the highest climate mitigation potential. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars provide the best climate mitigation option on ≈485 Mha of cropland worldwide with ~42% of this land characterized by a terrain slope equal or above 20%. If that land‐use change did occur, it would displace ≈58.1 Pg fossil fuel C equivalent (C_eq oil). Woody energy crops such as poplar, willow and Eucalyptus species would be the best option on only 2.4% (≈26.3 Mha) of current cropland, and if this land‐use change occurred, it would displace ≈0.9 Pg C_eq oil. Allowing cropland to revert to forest would be the best climate mitigation option on ≈17% of current cropland (≈184.5 Mha), and if this land‐use change occurred, it would sequester ≈5.8 Pg C in biomass in the 20‐year‐old forest and ≈2.7 Pg C in soil. This study is spatially explicit, so also serves to identify the regional differences in the efficacy of different climate mitigation options, informing policymakers developing regionally or nationally appropriate mitigation actions.     

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat‐growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041–2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO₂ emission scenario by 2081–2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat‐growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Land Use Implications of Increased Biomass Production Identified by GIS-Based Suitability and Yield Mapping for Miscanthus in England

The need for climate change mitigation and to meet increasing energy demands has led to a rise in the land area under bioenergy crops in many countries. There are concerns that such large-scale land conversion will conflict with food production and impact on the environment. Perennial biomass crops could be grown on more marginal agricultural land. However, for sustainable solutions, biomass yields will need to be sufficient and the wider implications of land-use changes considered. Here, focusing on Miscanthus in England as an example, we combined an empirical model with GIS to produce a yield map and estimated regional energy generation potentials after masking out areas covered by environmental and socio-economic factors which could preclude the planting of energy crops. Agricultural land quality and the distributions of currently grown food crops were then taken into account. Results showed that: (i) regional contrasts occur in the importance of different factors affecting biomass planting; (ii) areas with the highest biomass yields co-locate with food producing areas on high grade land, and; (iii) when such high grade land and unsuitable areas are excluded, a policy-related scenario for increased planting on 350,000 ha utilised 4–28% (depending on the region) of lower grade land and would not necessarily greatly impact on UK food security. We conclude that the GIS-based yield and suitability mapping described here can help identify important issues in bioenergy generation potentials and land use implications at regional or finer spatial scales that would be missed in analyses at the national level.     

How willing are landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops in the Northern Great Lakes Region?

Land to produce biomass is essential if the United States is to expand bioenergy supply. Use of agriculturally marginal land avoids the food vs. fuel problems of food price rises and carbon debt that are associated with crop and forestland. Recent remote sensing studies have identified large areas of US marginal land deemed suitable for bioenergy crops. Yet the sustainability benefits of growing bioenergy crops on marginal land only pertain if land is economically available. Scant attention has been paid to the willingness of landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops. Focusing on the northern tier of the Great Lakes, where grassland transitions to forest and land prices are low, this contingent valuation study reports on the willingness of a representative sample of 1124 private, noncorporate landowners to rent land for three bioenergy crops: corn, switchgrass, and poplar. Of the 11% of land that was agriculturally marginal, they were willing to make available no more than 21% for any bioenergy crop (switchgrass preferred on marginal land) at double the prevailing land rental rate in the region. At the same generous rental rate, of the 28% that is cropland, they would rent up to 23% for bioenergy crops (corn preferred), while of the 55% that is forestland, they would rent up to 15% for bioenergy crops (poplar preferred). Regression results identified deterrents to land rental for bioenergy purposes included appreciation of environmental amenities and concern about rental disamenities. In sum, like landowners in the southern Great Lakes region, landowners in the Northern Tier are reluctant to supply marginal land for bioenergy crops. If rental markets existed, they would rent more crop and forestland for bioenergy crops than they would marginal land, which would generate carbon debt and opportunity costs in wood product and food markets.     

Establishment of reed canary grass with perennial legumes or barley and different fertilization treatments: effects on yield,botanical composition and nitrogen fixation

In two field experiments in northern Sweden, we investigated if intercropping reed canary grass (RCG; Phalaris arundinacea L.) with nitrogen‐fixing perennial legumes could reduce N‐fertilizer requirements and also if RCG ash or sewage sludge could be used as a supplement for mineral P and K. We compared biomass production, N uptake and N‐fixation of RCG in monoculture and mixtures of RCG with alsike clover (Trifolium hybridum L.), red clover (Trifolium pratense L.), goat's rue (Galega orientalis Lam.) and kura clover (Trifolium ambiguum M. Bieb.). In one experiment, RCG was also undersown in barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). Three fertilization treatments were applied: 100 kg N ha^?1, 50 kg N ha^?1 and 50 kg N ha^?1 + RCG ash/sewage sludge. We used a delayed harvest method: cutting the biomass in late autumn, leaving it on the field during the winter and harvesting in spring. The legume biomass of the mixtures at the inland experimental site was small and did not affect RCG growth negatively. At the coastal site, competition from higher amount of clover biomass affected RCG growth and spring yield negatively. N‐fixation in red clover and alsike clover mixtures in the first production year approximately covered half of recommended N‐fertilization rate. Goat's rue and kura clover did not establish well at the costal site, but at the inland site goat's rue formed a small but vital undergrowth. RCG undersown in barley gave lower yield, both in autumn and spring, than the other treatments. The high N treatment gave a higher spring yield at the inland site than the low N treatments, but there were no differences due to fertilization treatments at the coastal site. For spring harvest, there were no yield benefits of RCG/legume intercropping compared with RCG monoculture. However, intercropping might be more beneficial in a two‐harvest system.     

The effects of a permanently elevated water table in an acid sulphate soil on reed canary grass for combustion

Aims and background

Acid sulphate (AS) soils require careful management to prevent the environmental hazards that result from the oxidation of sulphide-bearing deep soil layers and the consequent acidification of soil and waters. Management with a high water table precludes many food crops, so their suitability for perennial energy cropping was investigated in a 3-year study using reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea L., RCG).

Methods

Monolithic lysimeters made of undisturbed AS soil and equipped with ground-water level control and measurement instruments were planted with 1- year-old RCG turfs taken from a non-AS field. Two water tables were imposed, high (HWT, 20 cm below soil surface) and low (LWT, 70 cm below soil surface, considered normal for agriculturally managed AS soils) for a 3 year period. Growth and physiological characters of RCG were determined and its ash content and the elemental composition of its dry biomass (Ca, Cl, K, Mg, and S) were analysed.

Results

The level of the water table had significant effects on crop growth and quality. Shoots were 25 to 29 % taller, consequently yielding more dry matter in HWT than in LWT lysimeters. Concentrations of K, Mg and S that can affect the combustion process were higher in biomass harvested from LWT lysimeters than from the HWT plants. At the end of the experiment, the spatial distribution of roots within the soil profile differed between treatments. Roots penetrated to the bottom of LWT lysimeters with total root dry mass nearly twice that in HWT.

Conclusions

RCG intended for burning grows and performs well in acid sulphate soils managed with a raised water table. This management option minimizes the risk of acid flows from oxidized soils, and allows farmers to harvest a non-food crop from soils that would have to be drained to provide a food or feed crop.