气候、植被和地形对大兴安岭林火烈度空间格局的影响

在北方森林中火干扰是森林景观变化的主导因素。林火烈度作为衡量林火动态的重要指标,较为直观地反映了火干扰对森林生态系统的破坏程度,其空间格局深刻地影响着森林景观中的多种生态过程(如树种组成、种子扩散以及植被的恢复)。解释林火烈度空间格局有助于揭示林火干扰后森林景观格局的形成机制,对预测未来林火烈度空间格局以及制定科学合理林火管理策略均有重要意义。基于LandsatTM/ETM遥感影像,将2000—2016年大兴安岭呼中林区的36场火的林火烈度划分为未过火、轻度、中度、重度4个等级。采用FRAGSTAT景观格局分析软件从类型水平上计算了斑块所占景观面积比、面积加权平均斑块面积、面积加权平均斑块分维数、面积加权边缘面积比、斑块密度5个景观指数,以对林火烈度空间格局进行了定量化描述。并且采用随机森林模型,分析了气候、地形、植被对林火烈度空间格局的影响及其边际效应。通过研究得出以下结果:(1)相对于未过火、轻度、以及中度火烧斑块,重度火烧斑块的面积更大、形状更简单;(2)海拔对重度火烧斑块的空间格局起着至关重要的作用,其次是坡向、坡度、植被覆盖度、相对湿度、温度等;(3)随着海拔的升高,面积加权...     

草原火烧严重度燃烧指数的适用性比较分析

基于遥感影像的燃烧指数被广泛应用于火烧严重度(fire severity)研究,选取适宜燃烧指数定量评估草原火烧严重度,对草原生态系统植被的恢复与管理具有重要意义。以呼伦贝尔草原火烧迹地为研究区域,基于landsat8 OLI影像分别构建4种燃烧指数(NBR、NSTV1、d NBR和Rd NBR)与综合燃烧指数(CBI)的回归模型并进行精度验证,对比分析不同燃烧指数识别草原火烧严重度等级的能力。结果表明:在燃烧指数与CBI构建的回归模型中,d NBR指数的相关性(n=70,R~2=0.856)最高;4种燃烧指数识别火烧严重度的精度存在差异,中度火烧区域(1CBI≤2)内,NSTV1指数识别精度最高,未过火(CBI=0)、轻度火烧(0CBI≤1)和重度火烧(2CBI≤3)区域内,d NBR指数识别精度均表现最好,分别为80%、62.5%和100%;基于不同燃烧指数的草原火烧严重度制图中,d NBR指数的总体精度同样高于其他燃烧指数,为82.1%,Kappa系数高达0.76。综上所述,d NBR指数是草原火烧严重度分析与评价的适宜遥感指数。     

Shifting season of fire and its interaction with fire severity: Impacts on reproductive effort in resprouting plants

Fire regimes shape plant communities but are shifting with changing climate. More frequent fires of increasing intensity are burning across a broader range of seasons. Despite this, impacts that changes in fire season have on plant populations, or how they interact with other fire regime elements, are still relatively understudied. We asked (a) how does the season of fire affect plant vigor, including vegetative growth and flowering after a fire event, and (b) do different functional resprouting groups respond differently to the effects of season of fire? We sampled a total of 887 plants across 36 sites using a space‐for‐time design to assess resprouting vigor and reproductive output for five plant species. Sites represented either a spring or autumn burn, aged one to three years old. Season of fire had the clearest impacts on flowering in Lambertia formosa with a 152% increase in the number of plants flowering and a 45% increase in number of flowers per plant after autumn compared with spring fires. There were also season × severity interactions for total flowers produced for Leptospermum polygalifolium and L. trinervium with both species producing greater flowering in autumn, but only after lower severity fires. Severity of fire was a more important driver in vegetative growth than fire season. Season of fire impacts have previously been seen as synonymous with the effects of fire severity; however, we found that fire season and severity can have clear and independent, as well as interacting, impacts on post‐fire vegetative growth and reproductive response of resprouting species. Overall, we observed that there were positive effects of autumn fires on reproductive traits, while vegetative growth was positively related to fire severity and pre‐fire plant size.     

Postfire energy exchange in arctic tundra: the importance and climatic implications of burn severity

Fires produce land cover changes that have consequences for surface energy balance and temperature. Three eddy covariance towers were setup along a burn severity gradient (i.e. Severely, Moderately, and Unburned tundra) to determine the effect of fire and burn severity on arctic tundra surface energy exchange and temperature for three growing seasons (2008–2010) following the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire. The three sites were well matched before the fire, experienced similar weather, and had similar energy budget closure, indicating that the measured energy exchange differences between sites were largely attributable to burn severity. Increased burn severity resulted in decreased vegetation and moss cover, organic layer depth, and the rate of postfire vegetation recovery. Albedo and surface greenness steadily recovered with Moderately matching Unburned tundra by the third growing season. Decreased albedo increased net radiation and partly fueled increased latent and ground heat fluxes, soil temperatures, and thaw depth. Decreases in moss cover and the organic layer also influenced the ground thermal regime and increased latent heat fluxes. These changes either offset or decreased the surface warming effect from decreased albedo, resulting in a small surface warming in Severely and a small surface cooling in Moderately relative to Unburned tundra. These results indicate that fires have a significant impact on surface energy balance and highlight the importance of moss and permafrost thaw in regulating arctic surface energy exchange and temperature.     

The bigger they come, the harder they fall: body size and prey abundance influence predator-prey ratios

Large carnivores are highly threatened, yet the processes underlying their population declines are still poorly understood and widely debated. We explored how body mass and prey abundance influence carnivore density using data on 199 populations obtained across multiple sites for 11 carnivore species. We found that relative decreases in prey abundance resulted in a five- to sixfold greater decrease in the largest carnivores compared with the smallest species. We discuss a number of possible causes for this inherent vulnerability, but also explore a possible mechanistic link between predator size, energetics and population processes. Our results have important implications for carnivore ecology and conservation, demonstrating that larger species are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats to their environment, especially those which have an adverse affect on the abundance of their prey.     

The carbon costs of mitigating high‐severity wildfire in southwestern ponderosa pine

Forests provide climate change mitigation benefit by sequestering carbon during growth. This benefit can be reversed by both human and natural disturbances. While some disturbances such as hurricanes are beyond the control of humans, extensive research in dry, temperate forests indicates that wildfire severity can be altered as a function of forest fuels and stand structural manipulations. The purpose of this study was to determine if current aboveground forest carbon stocks in fire‐excluded southwestern ponderosa pine forest are higher than prefire exclusion carbon stocks reconstructed from 1876, quantify the carbon costs of thinning treatments to reduce high‐severity wildfire risk, and compare posttreatment (thinning and burning) carbon stocks with reconstructed 1876 carbon stocks. Our findings indicate that prefire exclusion forest carbon stocks ranged from 27.9 to 36.6 Mg C ha^?1 and that the current fire‐excluded forest structure contained on average 2.3 times as much live tree carbon. Posttreatment carbon stocks ranged from 37.9 to 50.6 Mg C ha^?1 as a function of thinning intensity. Previous work found that these thinning and burning treatments substantially increased the 6.1 m wind speed necessary for fire to move from the forest floor to the canopy (torching index) and the wind speed necessary for sustained crown fire (crowning index), thereby reducing potential fire severity. Given the projected drying and increase in fire prevalence in this region as a function of changing climatic conditions, the higher carbon stock in the fire‐excluded forest is unlikely to be sustainable. Treatments to reduce high‐severity wildfire risk require trade‐offs between carbon stock size and carbon stock stability.     

Changing growth response to wildfire in old‐growth ponderosa pine trees in montane forests of north central Idaho

North American fire‐adapted forests are experiencing changes in fire frequency and climate. These novel conditions may alter postwildfire responses of fire‐adapted trees that survive fires, a topic that has received little attention. Historical, frequent, low‐intensity wildfire in many fire‐adapted forests is generally thought to have a positive effect on the growth and vigor of trees that survive fires. Whether such positive effects can persist under current and future climate conditions is not known. Here, we evaluate long‐term responses to recurrent 20th‐century fires in ponderosa pine, a fire‐adapted tree species, in unlogged forests in north central Idaho. We also examine short‐term responses to individual 20th‐century fires and evaluate whether these responses have changed over time and whether potential variability relates to climate variables and time since last fire. Growth responses were assessed by comparing tree‐ring measurements from trees in stands burned repeatedly during the 20th century at roughly the historical fire frequency with trees in paired control stands that had not burned for at least 70 years. Contrary to expectations, only one site showed significant increases in long‐term growth responses in burned stands compared with control stands. Short‐term responses showed a trend of increasing negative effects of wildfire (reduced diameter growth in the burned stand compared with the control stand) in recent years that had drier winters and springs. There was no effect of time since the previous fire on growth responses to fire. The possible relationships of novel climate conditions with negative tree growth responses in trees that survive fire are discussed. A trend of negative growth responses to wildfire in old‐growth forests could have important ramifications for forest productivity and carbon balance under future climate scenarios.     

Interplay between global patterns of environmental temperature and variation in nonshivering thermogenesis of rodent species across large spatial scales

The purpose of this study was to test for correlations of mass-independent nonshivering thermogenesis (NST) in rodent species with climatic factors such as maximum and minimum geographic temperature. We first analyzed whether the responses of rodents show a phylogenetic signal. If so, and if the NST over a broad geographical range is similar, then such responses probably reflect physiological evolutionary adaptation. Our results show that NST did not show phylogenetic signal, appears to be evolutionary labile and is negatively correlated with environmental temperature. We predicted that species evolved in cold climates will exhibit higher mass-independent NST than species from warmer habitats. Indeed, we observed that the relationships between mass-independent NST and minimum temperature ( r _s=−0.411, P =0.009) as well as between NST and maximum temperature ( r _s=−0.443, P =0.004) were both negatively and significantly correlated, thus supporting our predictions. Thus, thermal physiology may be a significant factor underlying the ecological and evolutionary success of animals. Finally we suggest that due to the pressing need to explain and predict the likely biological impact of climatic change, advances in this field are necessary.     

Responses of species abundance distribution patterns to spatial scaling in subtropical secondary forests

To quantify and assess the processes underlying community assembly and driving tree species abundance distributions(SADs) with spatial scale variation in two typical subtropical secondary forests in Dashanchong state‐owned forest farm, two 1‐ha permanent study plots (100‐m × 100‐m) were established. We selected four diversity indices including species richness, Shannon–Wiener, Simpson and Pielou, and relative importance values to quantify community assembly and biodiversity. Empirical cumulative distribution and species accumulation curves were utilized to describe the SADs of two forests communities trees. Three types of models, including statistic model (lognormal and logseries model), niche model (broken‐stick, niche preemption, and Zipf‐Mandelbrodt model), and neutral theory model, were estimated by the fitted SADs. Simulation effects were tested by Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. Results found that the Fagaceae and Anacardiaceae families were their respective dominance family in the evergreen broad‐leaved and deciduous mixed communities. According to original data and random sampling predictions, the SADs were hump‐shaped for intermediate abundance classes, peaking between 8 and 32 in the evergreen broad‐leaved community, but this maximum increased with size of total sampled area size in the deciduous mixed community. All niche models could only explain SADs patterns at smaller spatial scales. However, both the neutral theory and purely statistical models were suitable for explaining the SADs for secondary forest communities when the sampling plot exceeded 40 m. The results showed the SADs indicated a clear directional trend toward convergence and similar predominating ecological processes in two typical subtropical secondary forests. The neutral process gradually replaced the niche process in importance and become the main mechanism for determining SADs of forest trees as the sampling scale expanded. Thus, we can preliminarily conclude that neutral processes had a major effect on biodiversity patterns in these two subtropical secondary forests but exclude possible contributions of other processes.     

小波分析方法在心叶驼绒藜(Ceratoides ewersmanniana)空间格局尺度推绎研究中的应用

以古尔班通古特沙漠南缘莫索湾沙地选取相隔15km的两个200m×200m样地,以建群种心叶驼绒藜(Ceratoides ewersmanniana)及其生境地形为研究对象,应用小波分析定量研究了多尺度上空间格局的推绎以及空间异质性、空间格局依赖于尺度的变化关系。研究发现:小波分析尺度由1(5m)变化到4(20m)时,两个样地小尺度上的异质性和格局被合并到更大的尺度上,当小波分析的尺度大于等于5(25m)时,两个样地的格局变化平稳,对应地形(丘顶、丘坡、丘底)的基频稳定在110m左右,心叶驼绒藜的数量动态变化周期稳定在115～125m之间。结果表明:小波分析对信号整体特征的提取作用实现了小尺度上的信息到大尺度上的聚合。结合小波分析对信号突变点的检测,利用位置方差检验局部空间异质性程度,发现位置方差将大尺度上的格局分解到每个取样小样方,位置方差最大的地点对应的异质性也最强,实现了大尺度上的信息到小尺度上的分解。总结认为应用小波分析可以实现对空间格局的尺度推绎,具有对植被、环境的分布格局以及异质性有双重度量作用,由小波系数以及由其衍生的小波方差、位置方差来实现这种度量,图形表现直观,优越性明显。     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in Northeast China, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area and time period) under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed human‐caused fires were strongly related to human activities (e.g. landscape accessibility), including proximity to settlements and roads. In contrast, fuel moisture and vegetation type were the most important controlling factors on the spatial pattern of lightning fires. Both current and future projected spatial distributions of the overall (human‐ + lightning‐caused) fire occurrence density were strongly clustered along linear components of human infrastructure. Our results demonstrated that the predicted change in overall fire occurrence density is positively related to the degree of temperature and precipitation change, although the spatial pattern of change is expected to vary spatially according to proximity to human ignition sources, and in a manner inconsistent with predicted climate change. Compared to the current overall fire occurrence density (median value: 0.36 fires per 1000 km² per year), the overall fire occurrence density is projected to increase by 30% under the CGCM3 B1 scenario and by 230% under HadCM3 A2 scenario in 2081–2100, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change effects may not outweigh the effects of human influence on overall fire occurrence over the next century in this cultural landscape. Accurate forecasts of future fire‐climate relationships should account for anthropogenic influences on fire ignition density, such as roads and proximity to settlements.     

Ecological application of wavelet analysis in the scaling of spatial distribution patterns of Ceratoides ewersmanniana

Ecological experiments are usually conducted on small scales, but the ecological and environmental issues are usually on large scales. Hence, there is a clear need of scaling. Namely, when we deal with patterns and processes on larger scales, a special connection needs to be established on the small scales that we are familiar with. Here we presented a wavelet analysis method that could build relationships between spatial distribution patterns on different scales. With this method, we also studied how spatial heterogeneity and distribution patterns changed with the scale. We investigated the distribution and the habitat of C. ewersmanniana in two plots (200 m × 200 m; the distance between these two plots is 15 km) at Mosuowan desert. The results demonstrated that spatial heterogeneity and distribution patterns were incorporated into larger scales when the wavelet scale varied from one (5 m) to four (20 m). However, if the wavelet scale was above five (25 m), the spatial distribution patterns varied placidly, the oscillation frequency of landforms stabilized at 110 m, and the dynamic quantity period of C. ewersmanniana stabilized at 115–125 m. We also identified signal mutation points with wavelet analysis and verified the heterogeneity degree of local space with position variance. We found that position variance decomposed the distribution patterns on large scales into small sampling plots, and the position with the largest variance also had the strongest heterogeneity. In a word, the wavelet analysis method could scale-up spatial distribution patterns and habitat heterogeneity. With this method and other methods derived from this one, such as wavelet scale, wavelet variance, position variance and extremely direct-viewing graphs, wavelet analysis could be widely applied in solving the scaling problem in ecological and environmental studies.     

Predictable shorebird departure patterns from a staging site can inform collision risks and mitigation of wind energy developments

High-quality staging sites are critical for long-distance migratory shorebirds to rest and refuel but are under threat from human development, including expansion of wind energy projects. However, predicting migration timing and movements in relation to weather conditions at staging sites can increase our understanding and mitigate effects of wind turbine collisions. Here we assessed northward migration timing and orientation in relation to environmental conditions at an inland staging area in Saskatchewan, Canada, with active and proposed wind energy developments. The area is known to host ~25% of North America's Sanderling Calidris alba population and 16 other Arctic-breeding migrant shorebird species. We quantified arrival and departure time of day in relation to weather using data from 140 of 237 Sanderlings radiotagged locally and at a southern staging site in the Gulf of Mexico with the Motus Wildlife Tracking System (April–June, 2015–2017). Although Sanderling arrival times were not related to time of day or weather, departures were more likely at sunset in winds blowing towards the northwest at intermediate speeds (<22 km/h). Departure flights were also primarily oriented north-northwest in the direction of a proposed wind energy development site at a mean ground speed of 21.4 m/s. Based on published climb rates and flight speed data, we estimated that shorebirds needed between 2 and 14 km setback distance to clear maximum turbine heights of 165 m. Given that departure events were predictable in time and space, adaptive mitigation may be useful for planning wind energy developments while reducing risk for staging Arctic-breeding shorebirds.     

中国遥感干旱指数时空特征及其对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应

干旱严重影响植被生长,威胁粮食安全,基于遥感计算的植被状态指数（Vegetation Condition Index,VCI）、温度状态指数（Temperature Condition Index,TCI）和植被健康指数（Vegetation Health Index,VHI）是常用的干旱指数,被广泛应用于干旱监测。为了探究近年来我国干旱特征及其对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应,分析了2003-2016年期间VCI、TCI和VHI的时空变化特征;采用最小二乘（OLS）和偏相关分析方法分析了这些指数对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应。基于上述干旱指数计算的干旱频率表明,中温带中部和南温带等地区干旱发生频率高,干旱指数变化趋势表明在2003-2016年期间中国大部分地区干旱缓解,但在中温带、南温带和高原气候区等局部地区干旱加剧;总体而言,干旱指数随着年平均温度的上升和年降水量的降低而减小,VHI与温度和降水量的相关性在不同气候区的一致性优于VCI和TCI;裸土的减少和植被的增加导致干旱指数增大,树木转变为低矮植被干旱指数降低。     

Convergence of bark investment according to fire and climate structures ecosystem vulnerability to future change

Fire regimes in savannas and forests are changing over much of the world. Anticipating the impact of these changes requires understanding how plants are adapted to fire. In this study, we test whether fire imposes a broad selective force on a key fire‐tolerance trait, bark thickness, across 572 tree species distributed worldwide. We show that investment in thick bark is a pervasive adaptation in frequently burned areas across savannas and forests in both temperate and tropical regions where surface fires occur. Geographic variability in bark thickness is largely explained by annual burned area and precipitation seasonality. Combining environmental and species distribution data allowed us to assess vulnerability to future climate and fire conditions: tropical rainforests are especially vulnerable, whereas seasonal forests and savannas are more robust. The strong link between fire and bark thickness provides an avenue for assessing the vulnerability of tree communities to fire and demands inclusion in global models.     

Hot bird drinking patterns: drivers of water visitation in a fynbos bird community

Water affects distribution of many species, but climate change is set to change rainfall patterns and hence water availability. In South Africa, various global climate‐change models suggest a drier future for the winter rainfall regions with implications for survival of plant and animal species of the fynbos region. Most birds offload heat by evaporative water loss, and this increases exponentially from 25°C. Birds need to replenish their water loss to cope particularly at high temperatures, especially species that have little preformed water in the diet. We documented bird species drinking at five natural water sources at a semi‐arid fynbos site through time‐lapse cameras to explore which birds are drinking when. We modelled the total numbers of birds observed drinking as a function of diet, mass and relative abundance and found that species classified as granivores were predicted to drink most frequently, with the more common species most frequently recorded. A phylogenetically controlled trait‐based logistic regression indicated abundance as the best predictor of observation at the water sources. Daily drinking rates at the species level for the ten most frequently observed species were generally best explained by daily temperature, with higher drinking rates on hotter days. However, daily drinking patterns were poorly explained by diurnal temperature trends at the hourly level, and we were unable to document sufficient predators to comment on the influence of predator avoidance or other heat mitigation strategies. Finally, we discuss the implications of our observations for the set of fynbos endemic passerines.     

Global diversity patterns of larger benthic foraminifera under future climate change

Global warming threatens the viability of tropical coral reefs and associated marine calcifiers, including symbiont-bearing larger benthic foraminifera (LBF). The impacts of current climate change on LBF are debated because they were particularly diverse and abundant during past warm periods. Studies on the responses of selected LBF species to changing environmental conditions reveal varying results. Based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature on LBF species occurrences, we applied species distribution modeling using Maxent to estimate present-day and future species richness patterns on a global scale for the time periods 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. For our future projections, we focus on Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which projects mean surface temperature changes of +2.2°C by the year 2100. Our results suggest that species richness in the Central Indo-Pacific is two to three times higher than in the Bahamian ecoregion, which we have identified as the present-day center of LBF diversity in the Atlantic. Our future predictions project a dramatic temperature-driven decline in low-latitude species richness and an increasing widening bimodal latitudinal pattern of species diversity. While the central Indo-Pacific, now the stronghold of LBF diversity, is expected to be most pushed outside of the currently realized niches of most species, refugia may be largely preserved in the Atlantic. LBF species will face large-scale non-analogous climatic conditions compared to currently realized climate space in the near future, as reflected in the extensive areas of extrapolation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Our study supports hypotheses that species richness and biogeographic patterns of LBF will fundamentally change under future climate conditions, possibly initiating a faunal turnover by the late 21st century.