The contribution of geographically common and rare species to the spatial distribution of biodiversity

Motivation and aim

Mapping the spatial distribution of biodiversity is critical for understanding its fundamental drivers (e.g. speciation, environmental filtering) as well as for conservation assessment. An important dimension of this topic is how the distributions of subsets of species contribute to the overall distribution of biodiversity. Although studies have previously investigated the role of geographically common and rare species in determining these patterns, their respective contributions appear to vary between studies. Knowing which species contribute disproportionately to the spatial distribution of biodiversity enables the identification of key indicator species for biodiversity assessments across large areas and is important for prioritising areas for conservation actions. An extensive review of the literature was carried out to synthesise research on how geographic rarity contributes to spatial patterns of biodiversity. We identify potential explanations for the discrepancies in findings between studies and identify opportunities for further research.

Results

Many studies on the contribution of geographic commonness and rarity to the spatial distribution of biodiversity focus on species richness. A prevalent view is that common (widespread) species contribute disproportionately, although this is not ubiquitous across studies due to factors such as the geographic extent from which relative rarity is quantified. We identify research pathways that will further improve our knowledge of how geographically common and rare species shape the spatial distribution of biodiversity including the impact of spatial scale on species contributions and the incorporation of biodiversity components beyond taxonomic alpha diversity, that is functional and phylogenetic diversity.

Main conclusions

Future research should incorporate multiple biodiversity components and model scale dependency. This will further our knowledge on the underlying processes that shape the spatial variation of biodiversity across the planet and help inform biological surveys and conservation activities.     

Refuges and risks: Evaluating the benefits of an expanded MPA network for mobile apex predators

Aim

Concurrently, assessing the effectiveness of marine protected areas and evaluating the degree of risk from humans to key species provide valuable information that can be integrated into conservation management planning. Tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) are a wide‐ranging ecologically important species subject to various threats. The aim of this study was to identify “hotspots” of tiger shark habitat use in relation to protected areas and potential risks from fishing.

Location

Southwest Indian Ocean, east coast of South Africa and Mozambique.

Methods

Satellite tags were fitted to 26 tiger sharks. A subset of 19 sharks with an average period at liberty of 197 (SD = 110) days were analysed using hotspot analysis to identify areas of core habitat use. The spatial and temporal overlap of significant hotspots with current and planned marine protected areas as well as risks from fishing and culling was then calculated.

Results

There was a 5.97% spatial overlap between tiger shark hotspots and marine protected areas, which would increase significantly (p < .05) to 24.36% with the expansion of planned protected areas in South Africa and could be as high as 41.43% if Mozambique similarly expanded neighbouring protected area boundaries. Tiger sharks remained largely coastal, but only showed a spatial overlap of 5.12% with shark culling nets in South Africa. Only three sharks undertook open ocean migrations during which they were more likely to interact with longline fisheries in the region.

Main conclusions

This study demonstrates how spatial information can be used to assess the overlap between marine protected areas and the core habitats of top marine predators and highlights how congruent transnational conservation management can improve the effectiveness of protected areas. Core habitat use of marine apex predators may also be indicative of productive habitats, and therefore, predators such as tiger sharks could act as surrogate species for identifying key habitats to prioritize for conservation planning.

     

Elevational gradients in bird diversity in the Eastern Himalaya: an evaluation of distribution patterns and their underlying mechanisms

Background

Understanding diversity patterns and the mechanisms underlying those patterns along elevational gradients is critically important for conservation efforts in montane ecosystems, especially those that are biodiversity hotspots. Despite recent advances, consensus on the underlying causes, or even the relative influence of a suite of factors on elevational diversity patterns has remained elusive.

Methods and Principal Findings

We examined patterns of species richness, density and range size distribution of birds, and the suite of biotic and abiotic factors (primary productivity, habitat variables, climatic factors and geometric constraints) that governs diversity along a 4500-m elevational gradient in the Eastern Himalayan region, a biodiversity hotspot within the world''s tallest mountains. We used point count methods for sampling birds and quadrats for estimating vegetation at 22 sites along the elevational gradient. We found that species richness increased to approximately 2000 m, then declined. We found no evidence that geometric constraints influenced this pattern, whereas actual evapotranspiration (a surrogate for primary productivity) and various habitat variables (plant species richness, shrub density and basal area of trees) accounted for most of the variation in bird species richness. We also observed that ranges of most bird species were narrow along the elevation gradient. We find little evidence to support Rapoport''s rule for the birds of Sikkim region of the Himalaya.

Conclusions and Significance

This study in the Eastern Himalaya indicates that species richness of birds is highest at intermediate elevations along one of the most extensive elevational gradients ever examined. Additionally, primary productivity and factors associated with habitat accounted for most of the variation in avian species richness. The diversity peak at intermediate elevations and the narrow elevational ranges of most species suggest important conservation implications: not only should mid-elevation areas be conserved, but the entire gradient requires equal conservation attention.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

Aims

Species distributions are hypothesized to be underlain by a complex association of processes that span multiple spatial scales including biotic interactions, dispersal limitation, fine‐scale resource gradients and climate. Species disequilibrium with climate may reflect the effects of non‐climatic processes on species distributions, yet distribution models have rarely directly considered non‐climatic processes. Here, we use a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM) to investigate the influence of non‐climatic factors on species co‐occurrence patterns and to directly quantify the relative influences of climate and alternative processes that may generate correlated responses in species distributions, such as species interactions, on tree co‐occurrence patterns.

Location

US Rocky Mountains.

Methods

We apply a Bayesian JSDM to simultaneously model the co‐occurrence patterns of ten dominant tree species across the Rocky Mountains, and evaluate climatic and residual correlations from the fitted model to determine the relative contribution of each component to observed co‐occurrence patterns. We also evaluate predictions generated from the fitted model relative to a single‐species modelling approach.

Results

For most species, correlation due to climate covariates exceeded residual correlation, indicating an overriding influence of broad‐scale climate on co‐occurrence patterns. Accounting for covariance among species did not significantly improve predictions relative to a single‐species approach, providing limited evidence for a strong independent influence of species interactions on distribution patterns.

Conclusions

Overall, our findings indicate that climate is an important driver of regional biodiversity patterns and that interactions between dominant tree species contribute little to explain species co‐occurrence patterns among Rocky Mountain trees.     

The role of climate,water and biotic interactions in shaping biodiversity patterns in arid environments across spatial scales

Aim

Desert ecosystems, with their harsh environmental conditions, hold the key to understanding the responses of biodiversity to climate change. As desert community structure is influenced by processes acting at different spatial scales, studies combining multiple scales are essential for understanding the conservation requirements of desert biota. We investigated the role of environmental variables and biotic interactions in shaping broad and fine‐scale patterns of diversity and distribution of bats in arid environments to understand how the expansion of nondesert species can affect the long‐term conservation of desert biodiversity.

Location

Levant, Eastern Mediterranean.

Methods

We combine species distribution modelling and niche overlap statistics with a statistical model selection approach to integrate interspecific interactions into broadscale distribution models and fine‐scale analysis of ecological requirements. We focus on competition between desert bats and mesic species that recently expanded their distribution into arid environment following anthropogenic land‐use changes.

Results

We show that both climate and water availability limit bat distributions and diversity across spatial scales. The broadscale distribution of bats was determined by proximity to water and high temperatures, although the latter did not affect the distribution of mesic species. At the fine‐scale, high levels of bat activity and diversity were associated with increased water availability and warmer periods. Desert species were strongly associated with warmer and drier desert types. Range and niche overlap were high among potential competitors, but coexistence was facilitated through fine‐scale spatial partitioning of water resources.

Main conclusions

Adaptations to drier and warmer conditions allow desert‐obligate species to prevail in more arid environments. However, this competitive advantage may disappear as anthropogenic activities encroach further into desert habitats. We conclude that reduced water availability in arid environments under future climate change projections pose a major threat to desert wildlife because it can affect survival and reproductive success and may increase competition over remaining water resources.     

Patterns of species richness hotspots and estimates of their protection are sensitive to spatial resolution

Aim

Species richness is a measure of biodiversity often used in spatial conservation assessments and mapped by summing species distribution maps. Commission errors inherent those maps influence richness patterns and conservation assessments. We sought to further the understanding of the sensitivity of hotspot delineation methods and conservation assessments to commission errors, and choice of threshold for hotspot delineation.

Location

United States.

Methods

We created range maps and 30‐m and 1‐km resolution habitat maps for terrestrial vertebrates in the United States and generated species richness maps with each dataset. With the richness maps and the GAP Protected Areas Dataset, we created species richness hotspot maps and calculated the proportion of hotspots within protected areas; calculating protection under a range of thresholds for defining hotspots. Our method allowed us to identify the influence of commission errors by comparing hotspot maps.

Results

Commission errors from coarse spatial grain data and lack of porosity in the range data inflated richness estimates and altered their spatial patterns. Coincidence of hotspots from different data types was low. The 30‐m hotspots were spatially dispersed, and some were very long distances from the hotspots mapped with coarser data. Estimates of protection were low for each of the taxa. The relationship between estimates of hotspot protection and threshold choice was nonlinear and inconsistent among data types (habitat and range) and grain size (30‐m and 1‐km).

Main conclusions

Coarse mapping methods and grain sizes can introduce commission errors into species distribution data that could result in misidentifications of the regions where hotspots occur and affect estimates of hotspot protection. Hotspot conservation assessments are also sensitive to choice of threshold for hotspot delineation. There is value in developing species distribution maps with high resolution and low rates of commission error for conservation assessments.     

Tight spatial coupling of a marine predator with soniferous fishes: Using joint modelling to aid in ecosystem approaches to management

Aim

Understanding the distribution of marine organisms is essential for effective management of highly mobile marine predators that face a variety of anthropogenic threats. Recent work has largely focused on modelling the distribution and abundance of marine mammals in relation to a suite of environmental variables. However, biotic interactions can largely drive distributions of these predators. We aim to identify how biotic and abiotic variables influence the distribution and abundance of a particular marine predator, the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), using multiple modelling approaches and conducting an extensive literature review.

Location

Western North Atlantic continental shelf.

Methods

We combined widespread marine mammal and fish and invertebrate surveys in an ensemble modelling approach to assess the relative importance and capacity of the environment and other marine species to predict the distribution of both coastal and offshore bottlenose dolphin ecotypes. We corroborate the modelled results with a systematic literature review on the prey of dolphins throughout the region to help explain patterns driven by prey availability, as well as reveal new ones that may not necessarily be a predator–prey relationship.

Results

We find that coastal bottlenose dolphin distributions are associated with one family of fishes, the Sciaenidae, or drum family, and predictions slightly improve when using only fish versus only environmental variables. The literature review suggests that this tight coupling is likely a predator–prey relationship. Comparatively, offshore dolphin distributions are more strongly related to environmental variables, and predictions are better for environmental-only models. As revealed by the literature review, this may be due to a mismatch between the animals caught in the fish and invertebrate surveys and the predominant prey of offshore dolphins, notably squid.

Main Conclusions

Incorporating prey species into distribution models, especially for coastal bottlenose dolphins, can help inform ecological relationships and predict marine predator distributions.     

Local heterogeneity of coral reef diversity and environmental stress provides opportunities for small-scale conservation

Aim

Strong social-ecological trade-offs between resource extraction and protection have created challenges for large, protected area management in natural resource-dependent countries. Therefore, local governments and community conservation activities are becoming common and information about low environmental exposure and high biodiversity can provide for planning localized conservation activities.

Location

The western Indian Ocean.

Methods

Coral reef sites were evaluated for local-scale environmental and species richness to elucidate local patterns in spatial heterogeneity. Local coral and fish taxonomic richness and coral community susceptibility to stress were normalized to partially account for common and heterogenous disturbances to coral cover and fish biomass. Residuals of these three response variables were evaluated for local geographic patterns and specific relationships with 21 environmental variables using machine learning methods.

Results

Richness was highly variable at local geographies and had a double-peaked shape with latitudes. Thirteen of the 21 examined variables were selected and indicated complex, spatially heterogeneous and weak cumulative predictive relationships with specific environmental and human influences. For example, each selected variable contributed 7% to 25% of the variance but with different relationships for the three responses. Coral fish richness and coral community susceptibility correlations were positive but weak and therefore produced different local spatial patterns. Nevertheless, these spatial patterns exhibited some coarse-scale similarities indicating locations with shared positive community attributes and potential climate refugia. Shared richness variables included depth and wave energy, temperature variables of SST skewness, excess heat and rate of rise. Human influences of distance to shore, human populations and cities were also selected for richness and community susceptibility responses.

Main Conclusions

Planning to include local stress and richness patterns variability could contribute to species persistence. From these specific data, sites in the Pemba Channel between the Tanzanian mainland and Pemba Island, and northern Mozambique and Madagascar fit refugia characteristics.     

Patterns of species richness and turnover in endemic amphibians of the Guineo-Congolian rain forest

Aim

The African Guineo-Congolian (GC) region is a global biodiversity hotspot with high species endemism, bioclimatic heterogeneity, complex landscape features, and multiple biogeographic barriers. Bioclimatic and geographic variables influence global patterns of species richness and endemism, but their relative importance varies across taxa and regions and is poorly understood for many faunas. Here, we test the hypothesis that turnover in endemic amphibians of the GC biodiversity hotspot is influenced mainly by the geographic distance between grid cells and secondarily by rainfall- and temperature-related variables.

Location

West and Central Africa.

Major Taxa Studied

Amphibians.

Methods

We compiled species-occurrence records via field sampling, online databases, and taxonomic literature. Our study used 1205 unique georeferenced records of 222 amphibian species endemic to the GC region. Patterns of species richness were mapped onto a grid with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. We estimated weighted endemism and tested whether endemism was higher than the expected species richness (randomization test). We quantified species turnover using generalized dissimilarity modelling to evaluate the processes underlying observed patterns of species richness in GC endemic amphibians. We explored bioregionalization using agglomerative hierarchical clustering based on the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic averages.

Results

We identified seven areas within the lower GC region – forests in Cameroon, Gabon, Southern Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Cote d'Ivoire – as having high species richness of endemic amphibians. The randomization test returned four major areas of significant weighted endemism: Nigeria-Cameroon mountains, forest regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, and Ghana. Our analysis revealed five bioregions for amphibian endemism, four of which were located within the lower Guineo-Congolian forest. Species turnover was strongly related to the geographic distance between grid cells; contributing bioclimatic variables included precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and mean diurnal temperature range.

Main Conclusions

Our results indicate that geographic distance between grid cells is the primary determinant of turnover in GC endemic amphibians, with secondary but significant effects of rainfall- and temperature-related variables. Our study identifies key areas of endemic amphibian richness that could be prioritized for conservation actions.     

Habitat modelling of tracking data from multiple marine predators identifies important areas in the Southern Indian Ocean

Aim

The distribution of marine predators is driven by the distribution and abundance of their prey; areas preferred by multiple marine predator species should therefore indicate areas of ecological significance. The Southern Ocean supports large populations of seabirds and marine mammals and is undergoing rapid environmental change. The management and conservation of these predators and their environment relies on understanding their distribution and its link with the biophysical environment, as the latter determines the distribution and abundance of prey. We addressed this issue using tracking data from 14 species of marine predators to identify important habitat.

Location

Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean.

Methods

We used tracking data from 538 tag deployments made over a decade at the Subantarctic Prince Edward Islands. For each real track, we simulated a set of pseudo‐tracks that allowed a presence‐availability habitat modelling approach that estimates an animal's habitat preference. Using model ensembles of boosted regression trees and random forests, we modelled these tracks as a response to a set of 17 environmental variables. We combined the resulting species‐specific models to evaluate areas of mean importance.

Results

Real tracking locations covered 39.75 million km², up to 7,813 km from the Prince Edward Islands. Areas of high mean importance were located broadly from the Subtropical Zone to the Polar Frontal Zone in summer and from the Subantarctic to Antarctic Zones in winter. Areas of high mean importance were best predicted by factors including wind speed, sea surface temperature, depth and current speed.

Main conclusions

The models and predictions developed here identify important habitat of marine predators around the Prince Edward Islands and can support the large‐scale conservation and management of Subantarctic ecosystems and the marine predators they sustain. The results also form the basis of future efforts to predict the consequences of environmental change.

     

Spatial patterns in the diversity of sharks, rays, and chimaeras (Chondrichthyes) in the Southwest Atlantic

Knowing how the diversity of sharks, rays and chimaeras (Chondrichthyes) is distributed helps us to design strategies to conserve these highly-vulnerable predators and their habitats. Here, we analyzed the spatial distribution of chondrichthyan species richness in the Southwest Atlantic (34–56oS), and its relationship with environmental variables and marine fronts, by using a dataset obtained before the major development of industrial trawling fisheries. We also explored the relationship between richness and reported catches of chondrichthyans from commercial, demersal fisheries. Generalized linear models were used to assess the relationship of species richness with environmental variables; with marine fronts and with commercial catches. Species richness increased towards the north, particularly close inshore and on the outer shelf, with cells of highest richness found north of 48oS. Dissolved oxygen was related negatively with richness; depth, latitude and longitude were also related with richness, but to a lesser extent. Chondrichthyan diversity hotspots, i.e. cells with richness higher than the 90% percentile of the richness distribution, were more likely to occur on marine fronts than elsewhere. High chondrichhtyan catches were significantly associated to hotspots, but low-catch areas were not related to coldspots, i.e. cells with less than the 10% percentile of the richness distribution. Areas of high richness of chondrichthyans coincide with high levels of catches and are used by other species of high conservation concern. Given the importance of these areas to multiple species in the Southwest Atlantic, any conservation strategy based on a network of protected areas should include marine fronts.     

Biases and distribution patterns in hard-bodied microscopic animals (Acari: Halacaridae): Size does not matter,but generalism and sampling effort do

Aim

The interplay between distribution ranges, species traits and sampling and taxonomic biases remains elusive amongst microscopic animals. This ignorance obscures our understanding of the diversity patterns of a major component of biodiversity. Here, we used marine Halacaridae to explore whether differences between marine provinces can explain their distribution patterns or if differential sampling efforts across regions prevent any macroecological inference. Furthermore, we test if certain functional traits influence their distribution patterns.

Location

Europe.

Results

Whereas geographical variables provided a better explanation for differences in species composition, sampling effort and distance from marine biological stations accounted for the majority of differences in European Halacaridae richness. Species occurring in more habitats showed broader geographical ranges and accumulated more records. Species traits like generalism affected the distribution of halacarid species.

Main Conclusions

We propose that the sampling effort of halacarid mites in Europe might be explained by two different cognitive biases: the convenience of selecting certain sampling localities compared to others and the tendency of zoologists to scrutinise habitats where their target organisms are more common.     

Climate-based models of spatial patterns of species richness in Egypt's butterfly and mammal fauna

Aim  Identifying areas of high species richness is an important goal of conservation biogeography. In this study we compared alternative methods for generating climate-based estimates of spatial patterns of butterfly and mammal species richness.
Location  Egypt.
Methods  Data on the occurrence of butterflies and mammals in Egypt were taken from an electronic database compiled from museum records and the literature. Using M axent , species distribution models were built with these data and with variables describing climate and habitat. Species richness predictions were made by summing distribution models for individual species and by modelling observed species richness directly using the same environmental variables.
Results  Estimates of species richness from both methods correlated positively with each other and with observed species richness. Protected areas had higher species richness (both predicted and actual) than unprotected areas.
Main conclusions  Our results suggest that climate-based models of species richness could provide a rapid method for selecting potential areas for protection and thus have important implications for biodiversity conservation.     

Do hotspots fall within protected areas? A Geographic Approach to Planning analysis of regional freshwater biodiversity

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Seasonal and Ontogenetic Changes in Movement Patterns of Sixgill Sharks

Background

Understanding movement patterns is fundamental to population and conservation biology. The way an animal moves through its environment influences the dynamics of local populations and will determine how susceptible it is to natural or anthropogenic perturbations. It is of particular interest to understand the patterns of movement for species which are susceptible to human activities (e.g. fishing), or that exert a large influence on community structure, such as sharks.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We monitored the patterns of movement of 34 sixgill sharks Hexanchus griseus using two large-scale acoustic arrays inside and outside Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Sixgill sharks were residents in Puget Sound for up to at least four years before making large movements out of the estuary. Within Puget Sound, sixgills inhabited sites for several weeks at a time and returned to the same sites annually. Across four years, sixgills had consistent seasonal movements in which they moved to the north from winter to spring and moved to the south from summer to fall. Just prior to leaving Puget Sound, sixgills altered their behavior and moved twice as fast among sites. Nineteen of the thirty-four sixgills were detected leaving Puget Sound for the outer coast. Three of these sharks returned to Puget Sound.

Conclusions/Significance

For most large marine predators, we have a limited understanding of how they move through their environment, and this clouds our ability to successfully manage their populations and their communities. With detailed movement information, such as that being uncovered with acoustic monitoring, we can begin to quantify the spatial and temporal impacts of large predators within the framework of their ecosystems.     

Prey resources are equally important as climatic conditions for predicting the distribution of a broad-ranged apex predator

Aim

A current biogeographic paradigm states that climate regulates species distributions at continental scales and that biotic interactions are undetectable at coarse-grain extents. However, advances in spatial modelling show that incorporating food resource distributions are important for improving model predictions at large distribution scales. This is particularly relevant to understand the factors limiting the distribution of widespread apex predators whose diets are likely to vary across their range.

Location

Neotropical Central and South America.

Methods

The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a large raptor, whose diet is largely comprised of arboreal mammals, all with broad distributions across Neotropical lowland forest. Here, we used a hierarchical modelling approach to determine the relative importance of abiotic factors and prey resource distribution on harpy eagle range limits. Our hierarchical approach consisted of the following modelling sequence of explanatory variables: (a) abiotic covariates, (b) prey resource distributions predicted by an equivalent modelling for each prey, (c) the combination of (a) and (b), and (d) as in (c) but with prey resources considered as a single prediction equivalent to prey species richness.

Results

Incorporating prey distributions improved model predictions but using solely biotic covariates still resulted in a high-performing model. In the Abiotic model, Climatic Moisture Index (CMI) was the most important predictor, contributing 76% to model prediction. Three-toed sloth (Bradypus spp.) was the most important prey resource, contributing 64% in a combined Abiotic-Biotic model, followed by CMI contributing 30%. Harpy eagle distribution had high environmental overlap across all individual prey distributions, with highest coincidence through Central America, eastern Colombia, and across the Guiana Shield into northern Amazonia.

Main Conclusions

With strong reliance on prey distributions across its range, harpy eagle conservation programmes must therefore consider its most important food resources as a key element in the protection of this threatened raptor.     

Biotic predictors with phenological information improve range estimates for migrating monarch butterflies in Mexico

Although long-standing theory suggests that biotic variables are only relevant at local scales for explaining the patterns of species' distributions, recent studies have demonstrated improvements to species distribution models (SDMs) by incorporating predictor variables informed by biotic interactions. However, some key methodological questions remain, such as which kinds of interactions are permitted to include in these models, how to incorporate the effects of multiple interacting species, and how to account for interactions that may have a temporal dependence. We addressed these questions in an effort to model the distribution of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus during its fall migration (September–November) through Mexico, a region with new monitoring data and uncertain range limits even for this well-studied insect. We estimated species richness of selected nectar plants (Asclepias spp.) and roosting trees (various highland species) for use as biotic variables in our models. To account for flowering phenology, we additionally estimated nectar plant richness of flowering species per month. We evaluated three types of models: climatic variables only (abiotic), plant richness estimates only (biotic) and combined (abiotic and biotic). We selected models with AICc and additionally determined if they performed better than random on spatially withheld data. We found that the combined models accounting for phenology performed best for all three months, and better than random for discriminatory ability but not omission rate. These combined models also produced the most ecologically realistic spatial patterns, but the modeled response for nectar plant richness matched ecological predictions for November only. These results represent the first model-based monarch distributional estimates for the Mexican migration route and should provide foundations for future conservation work. More generally, the study demonstrates the potential benefits of using SDM-derived richness estimates and phenological information for biotic factors affecting species distributions.     

Elevational Gradients in Fish Diversity in the Himalaya: Water Discharge Is the Key Driver of Distribution Patterns

Background

Studying diversity and distribution patterns of species along elevational gradients and understanding drivers behind these patterns is central to macroecology and conservation biology. A number of studies on biogeographic gradients are available for terrestrial ecosystems, but freshwater ecosystems remain largely neglected. In particular, we know very little about the species richness gradients and their drivers in the Himalaya, a global biodiversity hotspot.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We collated taxonomic and distribution data of fish species from 16 freshwater Himalayan rivers and carried out empirical studies on environmental drivers and fish diversity and distribution in the Teesta river (Eastern Himalaya). We examined patterns of fish species richness along the Himalayan elevational gradients (50–3800 m) and sought to understand the drivers behind the emerging patterns. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized additive models (GAM) to examine the richness patterns; GLM was used to investigate relationship between fish species richness and various environmental variables. Regression modelling involved stepwise procedures, including elimination of collinear variables, best model selection, based on the least Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and the highest percentage of deviance explained (D²). This maiden study on the Himalayan fishes revealed that total and non-endemic fish species richness monotonously decrease with increasing elevation, while endemics peaked around mid elevations (700–1500 m). The best explanatory model (synthetic model) indicated that water discharge is the best predictor of fish species richness patterns in the Himalayan rivers.

Conclusions/Significance

This study, carried out along one of the longest bioclimatic elevation gradients of the world, lends support to Rapoport’s elevational rule as opposed to mid domain effect hypothesis. We propose a species-discharge model and contradict species-area model in predicting fish species richness. We suggest that drivers of richness gradients in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are likely to be different. These studies are crucial in context of the impacts of unprecedented on-going river regulation on fish diversity and distribution in the Himalaya.