共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
Jennifer McHenry Heather Welch Sarah E. Lester Vincent Saba 《Global Change Biology》2019,25(12):4208-4221
Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high‐resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery‐independent and ‐dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems—the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate‐driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature‐based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature‐based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management. 相似文献
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Aim Conservation strategies currently include little consideration of climate change. Insights about the biotic impacts of climate change from biogeography and palaeoecology, therefore, have the potential to provide significant improvements in the effectiveness of conservation planning. We suggest a collaboration involving biogeography, ecology and applied conservation. The resulting Climate Change‐integrated Conservation Strategies (CCS) apply available tools to respond to the conservation challenges posed by climate change. Location The focus of this analysis is global, with special reference to high biodiversity areas vulnerable to climate change, particularly tropical montane settings. Methods Current tools from climatology, biogeography and ecology applicable to conservation planning in response to climate change are reviewed. Conservation challenges posed by climate change are summarized. CCS elements are elaborated that use available tools to respond to these challenges. Results Five elements of CCS are described: regional modelling; expanding protected areas; management of the matrix; regional coordination; and transfer of resources. Regional modelling uses regional climate models, biotic response models and sensitivity analysis to identify climate change impacts on biodiversity at a regional scale appropriate for conservation planning. Expansion of protected areas management and systems within the planning region are based on modelling results. Management of the matrix between protected areas provides continuity for processes and species range shifts outside of parks. Regional coordination of park and off‐park efforts allows harmonization of conservation goals across provincial and national boundaries. Finally, implementation of these CCS elements in the most biodiverse regions of the world will require technical and financial transfer of resources on a global scale. Main conclusions Collaboration across disciplines is necessary to plan conservation responses to climate change adequately. Biogeography and ecology provide insights into the effects of climate change on biodiversity that have not yet been fully integrated into conservation biology and applied conservation management. CCS provide a framework in which biogeographers, ecologists and conservation managers can collaborate to address this need. These planning exercises take place on a regional level, driven by regional climate models as well as general circulation models (GCMs), to ensure that regional climate drivers such as land use change and mesoscale topography are adequately represented. Sensitivity analysis can help address the substantial uncertainty inherent in projecting future climates and biodiversity response. 相似文献
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RACHAEL HICKLING † DAVID B. ROY JANE K. HILL† RICHARD FOX‡ CHRIS D. THOMAS† 《Global Change Biology》2006,12(3):450-455
Evidence is accumulating of shifts in species' distributions during recent climate warming. However, most of this information comes predominantly from studies of a relatively small selection of taxa (i.e., plants, birds and butterflies), which may not be representative of biodiversity as a whole. Using data from less well‐studied groups, we show that a wide variety of vertebrate and invertebrate species have moved northwards and uphill in Britain over approximately 25 years, mirroring, and in some cases exceeding, the responses of better‐known groups. 相似文献
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Sean A. Parks Carlos Carroll Solomon Z. Dobrowski Brady W. Allred 《Global Change Biology》2020,26(5):2944-2955
Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate change in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, ‘human exposure’, that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non‐protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/year and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. In the scenario that evaluated climate change in isolation, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non‐protected lands across North America. However, variability is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non‐protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts. 相似文献
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Jorge Assis Nelson Castilho Coelho Fernando Tempera Myriam Valero Filipe Alberto 《Journal of Biogeography》2018,45(10):2326-2336
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Julia L. Michalak Joshua J. Lawler John E. Gross Michelle C. Agne Robert L. Emmet Hsin-Wu Hsu Vivian Griffey 《Conservation Science and Practice》2022,4(7):e12703
Climate change poses significant challenges to protected area management globally. Anticipatory climate adaptation planning relies on vulnerability assessments that identify parks and resources at risk from climate change and associated vulnerability drivers. However, there is currently little understanding of where and how protected area assessments have been conducted and what assessment approaches best inform park management. To address this knowledge gap, we systematically evaluated climate-change vulnerability assessments of natural resources in U.S. National Parks. We categorized the spatial scale, resources, methods, and handling of uncertainty for each assessment and mapped which parks have assessments and for what resources. We found that a few broad-scale assessments provide baseline information—primarily regarding physical climate change exposure—for all parks and can support regional to national decisions. However, finer-scale assessments are required to inform decisions for individual or small groups of parks. Only 10% of parks had park-specific assessments describing key climate impacts and identifying priority resource vulnerabilities, and 37% lacked any regional or park-specific assessments. We identify assessment approaches that match the scale and objectives of different protected area management decisions and recommend a multi-scaled approach to implementing assessments to meet the information needs of a large, protected area network like the National Park system. 相似文献
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Jani Heino Raimo Virkkala Heikki Toivonen 《Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society》2009,84(1):39-54
Current rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been rapid at the levels of ecosystems, communities, and species. Most research on climate change effects on biodiversity has concentrated on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species’ distributions have already been detected in response to climate change. The studies that have considered organisms in the freshwater realm have also shown that freshwater biodiversity is highly vulnerable to climate change, with extinction rates and extirpations of freshwater species matching or exceeding those suggested for better‐known terrestrial taxa. There is some evidence that freshwater species have exhibited range shifts in response to climate change in the last millennia, centuries, and decades. However, the effects are typically species‐specific, with cold‐water organisms being generally negatively affected and warm‐water organisms positively affected. However, detected range shifts are based on findings from a relatively low number of taxonomic groups, samples from few freshwater ecosystems, and few regions. The lack of a wider knowledge hinders predictions of the responses of much of freshwater biodiversity to climate change and other major anthropogenic stressors. Due to the lack of detailed distributional information for most freshwater taxonomic groups and the absence of distribution‐climate models, future studies should aim at furthering our knowledge about these aspects of the ecology of freshwater organisms. Such information is not only important with regard to the basic ecological issue of predicting the responses of freshwater species to climate variables, but also when assessing the applied issue of the capacity of protected areas to accommodate future changes in the distributions of freshwater species. This is a huge challenge, because most current protected areas have not been delineated based on the requirements of freshwater organisms. Thus, the requirements of freshwater organisms should be taken into account in the future delineation of protected areas and in the estimation of the degree to which protected areas accommodate freshwater biodiversity in the changing climate and associated environmental changes. 相似文献
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Alexandra S. Gardner Ilya M.D. Maclean Kevin J. Gaston 《Diversity & distributions》2019,25(8):1318-1333
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Historically, many species moved great distances as climates changed. However, modern movements will be limited by the patterns of human‐dominated landscapes. Here, we use a combination of projected climate‐driven shifts in the distributions of 2903 vertebrate species, estimated current human impacts on the landscape, and movement models, to determine through which areas in the western hemisphere species will likely need to move to track suitable climates. Our results reveal areas with projected high densities of climate‐driven movements – including, the Amazon Basin, the southeastern United States and southeastern Brazil. Some of these regions, such as southern Bolivia and northern Paraguay, contain relatively intact landscapes, whereas others such as the southeastern United States and Brazil are heavily impacted by human activities. Thus, these results highlight both critical areas for protecting lands that will foster movement, and barriers where human land‐use activities will likely impede climate‐driven shifts in species distributions. 相似文献
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Jorge García Molinos Shintaro Takao Naoki H. Kumagai Elvira S. Poloczanska Michael T. Burrows Masahiko Fujii Hiroya Yamano 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(10):4440-4452
Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. 相似文献
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Lisa Holsinger Sean A. Parks Marc-André Parisien Carol Miller Enric Batllori Max A. Moritz 《Conservation Science and Practice》2019,1(7):e50
Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity and unprecedented challenges to the preservation and protection of natural landscapes. We evaluated how climate change might affect vegetation in 22 of the largest and most iconic protected area (PA) complexes across North America. We use a climate analog model to estimate how dominant vegetation types might shift under mid- (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100) climate according to the RCP 8.5 scenario. Maps depicting vegetation for each PA and time period are provided. Our analysis suggests that half (11 of 22) of the PAs may have substantially different vegetation by late-21st century compared with reference period conditions. The overall trend is toward vegetation associated with warmer or drier climates (or both), with near complete losses of alpine communities at the highest elevations and high latitudes. At low elevation and latitudes, vegetation communities associated with novel climate conditions may assemble in PAs. These potential shifts, contractions, and expansions in vegetation portray the possible trends across landscapes that are of great concern for conservation, as such changes imply cascading ecological responses for associated flora and fauna. Overall, our findings highlight the challenges managers may face to maintain and preserve biodiversity in key PAs across North America. 相似文献
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Drew W. Purves 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2009,276(1661):1477-1484
Regional species–climate correlations are well documented, but little is known about the ecological processes responsible for generating these patterns. Using the data from over 690 000 individual trees I estimated five demographic rates—canopy growth, understorey growth, canopy lifespan, understorey lifespan and per capita reproduction—for 19 common eastern US tree species, within the core and the northern and southern boundaries, of the species range. Most species showed statistically significant boundary versus core differences in most rates at both boundary types. Differences in canopy and understorey growth were relatively small in magnitude but consistent among species, being lower at the northern (average −17%) and higher at the southern (average +12%) boundaries. Differences in lifespan were larger in magnitude but highly variable among species, except for a marked trend for reduced canopy lifespan at the northern boundary (average −49%). Differences in per capita reproduction were large and statistically significant for some species, but highly variable among species. The rate estimates were combined to calculate two performance indices: R0 (a measure of lifetime fitness in the absence of competition) was consistently lower at the northern boundary (average −86%) whereas Z* (a measure of competitive ability in closed forest) showed no sign of a consistent boundary–core difference at either boundary. 相似文献
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Timothy A. Downing;Daniel O. Olago;Tobias O. Nyumba;Mary M. Peacock;Truman P. Young; 《African Journal of Ecology》2024,62(1):e13207
Tropical alpine areas are some of the most vulnerable areas in the world to climate change. Their plant communities have narrow thermal niches and have limited geographic areas to expand. Here we examine changes in plant species' abundance and distribution in the Teleki Valley (3900–4500 m asl) of Mount Kenya using a spatially explicit vegetation survey from 1980. Vascular plant species were re-sampled in 35 plots across the valley, and additional size and density data were collected for the two Dendrosenecio species. Overall species richness and diversity were lower in 2021 than in 1980, and the abundance of dominant species had declined. Changes in elevation suggested both upward and downward shifts had occurred. Dendrosenecio keniodendron exhibited a shift towards the valley bottom as well as a change in population structure towards younger individuals. The dominant environmental factors affecting plant composition were similar in both 1980 and 2021, namely elevation, vegetation cover and the presence of D. keniodendron. This keystone species plays a significant role in shaping communities but is undergoing rapid demographic changes, which may have cascading implications on the ecology of the system. 相似文献
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Celine Bellard Jonathan M. Jeschke Boris Leroy Georgina M. Mace 《Ecology and evolution》2018,8(11):5688-5700
Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change. 相似文献
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Cristina G. Soto 《Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries》2001,11(3):181-195
The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution. 相似文献
19.
- Though recent literature highlights widespread bee declines, detailed information on local communities and individual species remains scarce. In order to accurately direct conservation initiatives and to evaluate the status of wild bees, regional long‐term data on these populations are critical.
- This study analysed 119 wild bee species within New Hampshire, USA, over 125 years (1891–2016) using museum data. Examining pollinator communities across regional spatial scales has the power to highlight small‐scale changes that go undetected in larger investigations. In the light of unknown effects of introduced species and cumulative range expansions of exotic taxa, monitoring wild communities closely and extensively over time is becoming increasingly important.
- The composition of the New Hampshire wild bee community has changed between the historical and contemporary time periods with 14 species found to be statistically significantly declining and eight species found to be statistically significantly increasing. Over half of the species found to be in statistically significant decline experienced a significant elevational or latitudinal range shift, many are regionally important crop pollinators, and all are native New Hampshire taxa.
- Guild affiliations were not found to be indicators of change, suggesting that the requirements and behaviour of individual species must be examined in order to evaluate the current and future stability of the wild bee community. Many of these species occur in varied landscapes, climates, and habitats; thus, monitoring changes at regional scales is critical to informing conservation recommendations broadly and focusing future research directions.
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Maiorano L Falcucci A Zimmermann NE Psomas A Pottier J Baisero D Rondinini C Guisan A Boitani L 《Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences》2011,366(1578):2681-2692
The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition. 相似文献