Do geographic distribution,niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.     

Climatic impact of land use in LCA—carbon transfers between vegetation/soil and air

Background, aim, and scope  

Human use of land areas leads to impacts on nature in several ways. Within the framework of the UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative, it was stated that life cycle assessment (LCA) of land use should assess at least the impact on biodiversity, the impact on biotic production, and the impact on the regulating functions of the natural environment. This study focuses on the climatic impact of land use as determined by the CO₂ transfers between vegetation/soil and the atmosphere in the course of terrestrial release and re-storage of carbon.     

Rarity,geography, and plant exposure to global change in the California Floristic Province

Aim

Rarity and geographic aspects of species distributions mediate their vulnerability to global change. We explore the relationships between species rarity and geography and their exposure to climate and land use change in a biodiversity hotspot.

Location

California, USA.

Taxa

One hundred and six terrestrial plants.

Methods

We estimated four rarity traits: range size, niche breadth, number of habitat patches, and patch isolation; and three geographic traits: mean elevation, topographic heterogeneity, and distance to coast. We used species distribution models to measure species exposure—predicted change in continuous habitat suitability within currently occupied habitat—under climate and land use change scenarios. Using regression models, decision-tree models and variance partitioning, we assessed the relationships between species rarity, geography, and exposure to climate and land use change.

Results

Rarity, geography and greenhouse gas emissions scenario explained >35% of variance in climate change exposure and >61% for land use change exposure. While rarity traits (range size and number of habitat patches) were most important for explaining species exposure to climate change, geographic traits (elevation and topographic heterogeneity) were more strongly associated with species' exposure to land use change.

Main conclusions

Species with restricted range sizes and low topographic heterogeneity across their distributions were predicted to be the most exposed to climate change, while species at low elevations were the most exposed to habitat loss via land use change. However, even some broadly distributed species were projected to lose >70% of their currently suitable habitat due to climate and land use change if they are in geographically vulnerable areas, emphasizing the need to consider both species rarity traits and geography in vulnerability assessments.     

Current and Future Fire Regimes and Their Influence on Natural Vegetation in Ethiopia

Fire is a major factor shaping the distribution of vegetation types. In this study, we used a recent high resolution map of potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and MODIS fire products to model and investigate the importance of fire as driver of vegetation distribution patterns in Ethiopia. We employed statistical modeling techniques to estimate the distribution of fire and the PNVs under current climatic conditions, and used the calibrated models to project distributions for different climate change scenarios. Results show a clear congruence between distribution patterns of fire and major vegetation types. The effect of climate change varies considerably between climate change models and scenarios, but as general trend expansions of moist Afromontane forest and Combretum–Terminalia woodlands were predicted. Fire-prone areas were also predicted to increase, and including this factor in vegetation distribution models resulted in stronger expansion of Combretum–Terminalia woodlands and a more limited increase of moist Afromontane forests. These results underline the importance of fire as a regulating factor of vegetation distribution patterns, and how fire needs to be factored into predict the possible effects of climate change. For conservation strategies to effectively address conservation challenges caused by rapid climate shifts, it is imperative that they not only consider the direct influence of climate changes on the vegetation, species species, or biodiversity patterns, but also the influence of future fire regimes.     

Evolutionary response of cold-adapted chasmophytic plants to Quaternary climatic oscillations in the Mountains of Central Asia (a world hotspot of biodiversity)

Aim

Past climatic oscillations are the main driving force of evolutionary changes in alpine species. Species' response to paleoclimatic oscillations is crucial in forecasting their future response in face of climate warming. The aim of this research is to explore the effect of climatic fluctuations on the evolutionary history, demography, and distribution of high-mountain bellflowers (Campanula lehmanniana complex), the flagship and taxonomically problematic members of chasmophytic vegetation within an underexplored biodiversity hotspot, the Mountains of Central Asia.

Location

Central Asia (Tian Shan, Alai and Zeravshan-Hissar Mountains).

Methods

We used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-based SNPs) of 262 individuals (70 for the phylogeny reconstruction, and 247 from 31 localities for population studies). We analysed the data using phylogenetic and molecular clock reconstructions, coalescent simulations, and ecological niche modelling.

Results

Tertiary isolation between the Tian-Shanian and Pamir-Alaian populations led to the differentiation of the two main lineages (~5–6 Mya) corresponding to C. eugeniae and C. lehmanniana, whereas further Quaternary isolation into subregions led to intraspecific genetic differentiation, which starts almost simultaneously for both species (~2.7–1.5 Mya). The relatively small genetic admixture among populations indicates rare historic events of connectivity. In response to Holocene warming, the analysed species experienced a substantial decline in effective population size. Currently, the distribution of both taxa is highly influenced by precipitation in the coldest and driest quarters.

Main Conclusions

Our results highlight a general principle that glacial–interglacial cycles and contemporary island-like habitats distribution, shape the genomic variation of high-mountain species. The similar declining demographic trend of examined taxa may suggest the overall response to ongoing climate warming. The results underline also the urgent need for conservation action in alpine regions to preserve their biodiversity.     

Magnitude and drivers of plant diversity loss differ between spatial scales in Scania,Sweden 1957–2021

Questions

Changed land use, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and the spread of non-native species have repeatedly been reported as the main drivers of recent floristic changes in northern Europe. However, the relevance of the geographical scale at which floristic changes are observed is less well understood and it has only rarely been possible to quantify biodiversity loss. Therefore, we assessed changes in species richness, species composition and mean ecological indicator values (EIVs) at three nested geographic scales during two different time periods, each ca 30 years, since the mid-1900s.

Location

Two parishes in central Scania, southernmost Sweden.

Methods

We analyzed species presence/absence data from three inventories at ca 30-year intervals over 1957–2021 and three geographic scales (157 m², ca 7 km² and ca 45 km²) to document temporal trends and differences between geographic scales in terms of species richness, species composition and mean EIVs.

Results

We found shifts in species composition across all geographical scales. However, the magnitude of biodiversity loss and the main drivers of these changes were scale-dependent. At the smallest spatial scale, we saw a dramatic loss of plant biodiversity with local species richness in 2021 being only 48% of that of 1960. In contrast, at the larger geographic scales no significant changes in species richness were observed because species losses were compensated for by gains of predominantly non-native species, which made up at least 78% of the new species richness. At the smallest spatial scale, changed land use (ceased grazing/mowing and intensified forestry) appeared as the main driver, while an increasing proportion of non-native species, as well as climatic changes and increasing nitrogen loads appeared relatively more important at larger geographic scales.

Conclusion

Our results highlight the precarious situation for biodiversity in the region and at the same time the fundamental importance of geographic scale in studies of biodiversity change. Both the magnitude and drivers of changes may differ depending on the geographic scale and must be considered also when previously published studies are interpreted.     

The role of climate,water and biotic interactions in shaping biodiversity patterns in arid environments across spatial scales

Aim

Desert ecosystems, with their harsh environmental conditions, hold the key to understanding the responses of biodiversity to climate change. As desert community structure is influenced by processes acting at different spatial scales, studies combining multiple scales are essential for understanding the conservation requirements of desert biota. We investigated the role of environmental variables and biotic interactions in shaping broad and fine‐scale patterns of diversity and distribution of bats in arid environments to understand how the expansion of nondesert species can affect the long‐term conservation of desert biodiversity.

Location

Levant, Eastern Mediterranean.

Methods

We combine species distribution modelling and niche overlap statistics with a statistical model selection approach to integrate interspecific interactions into broadscale distribution models and fine‐scale analysis of ecological requirements. We focus on competition between desert bats and mesic species that recently expanded their distribution into arid environment following anthropogenic land‐use changes.

Results

We show that both climate and water availability limit bat distributions and diversity across spatial scales. The broadscale distribution of bats was determined by proximity to water and high temperatures, although the latter did not affect the distribution of mesic species. At the fine‐scale, high levels of bat activity and diversity were associated with increased water availability and warmer periods. Desert species were strongly associated with warmer and drier desert types. Range and niche overlap were high among potential competitors, but coexistence was facilitated through fine‐scale spatial partitioning of water resources.

Main conclusions

Adaptations to drier and warmer conditions allow desert‐obligate species to prevail in more arid environments. However, this competitive advantage may disappear as anthropogenic activities encroach further into desert habitats. We conclude that reduced water availability in arid environments under future climate change projections pose a major threat to desert wildlife because it can affect survival and reproductive success and may increase competition over remaining water resources.     

Combining point‐process and landscape vegetation models to predict large herbivore distributions in space and time—A case study of Rupicapra rupicapra

Aim

When modelling the distribution of animals under current and future conditions, both their response to environmental constraints and their resources’ response to these environmental constraints need to be taken into account. Here, we develop a framework to predict the distribution of large herbivores under global change, while accounting for changes in their main resources. We applied it to Rupicapra rupicapra, the chamois of the European Alps.

Location

The Bauges Regional Park (French Alps).

Methods

We built sixteen plant functional groups (PFGs) that account for the chamois’ diet (estimated from sequenced environmental DNA found in the faeces), climatic requirements, dispersal limitations, successional stage and interaction for light. These PFGs were then simulated using a dynamic vegetation model, under current and future climatic conditions up to 2100. Finally, we modelled the spatial distribution of the chamois under both current and future conditions using a point‐process model applied to either climate‐only variables or climate and simulated vegetation structure variables.

Results

Both the climate‐only and the climate and vegetation models successfully predicted the current distribution of the chamois species. However, when applied into the future, the predictions differed widely. While the climate‐only models predicted an 80% decrease in total species occupancy, including vegetation structure and plant resources for chamois in the model provided more optimistic predictions because they account for the transient dynamics of the vegetation (?20% in species occupancy).

Main conclusions

Applying our framework to the chamois shows that the inclusion of ecological mechanisms (i.e., plant resources) produces more realistic predictions under current conditions and should prove useful for anticipating future impacts. We have shown that discounting the pure effects of vegetation on chamois might lead to overpessimistic predictions under climate change. Our approach paves the way for improved synergies between different fields to produce biodiversity scenarios.

     

Threats of land use to the global diversity of vascular plants

Aim

Land use is a main driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. However, quantifying its effects on global plant diversity remains a challenge due to the limited availability of data on the distributions of vascular plant species and their responses to land use. Here, we estimated the global extinction threat of land use to vascular plant species based on a novel integration of an ecoregion-level species-area model and the relative endemism richness of the ecoregions.

Location

Global.

Methods

First, we assessed ecoregion-level extinction threats using a countryside species–area relationship model based on responses of local plant richness to land use types and intensities and a high-resolution global land use map. Next, we estimated global species extinction threat by multiplying the relative endemism richness of each ecoregion with the ecoregion-level extinction threats.

Results

Our results indicate that 11% of vascular plant species are threatened with global extinction. We found the largest extinction threats in the Neotropic and Palearctic realms, mainly due to cropland of minimal and high intensity, respectively.

Main Conclusions

Our novel integration of the countryside species–area relationship and the relative endemism richness allows for the identification of hotspots of global extinction threat, as well as the contribution of specific land use types and intensities to this threat. Our findings inform where the development of measures to protect or restore plant diversity globally are most needed.     

Traits of dominant plant species drive normalized difference vegetation index in grasslands globally

Aim

Theoretical, experimental and observational studies have shown that biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships are influenced by functional community structure through two mutually non-exclusive mechanisms: (1) the dominance effect (which relates to the traits of the dominant species); and (2) the niche partitioning effect [which relates to functional diversity (FD)]. Although both mechanisms have been studied in plant communities and experiments at small spatial extents, it remains unclear whether evidence from small-extent case studies translates into a generalizable macroecological pattern. Here, we evaluate dominance and niche partitioning effects simultaneously in grassland systems world-wide.

Location

Two thousand nine hundred and forty-one grassland plots globally.

Time period

2000–2014.

Major taxa studied

Vascular plants.

Methods

We obtained plot-based data on functional community structure from the global vegetation plot database “sPlot”, which combines species composition with plant trait data from the “TRY” database. We used data on the community-weighted mean (CWM) and FD for 18 ecologically relevant plant traits. As an indicator of primary productivity, we extracted the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS. Using generalized additive models and deviation partitioning, we estimated the contributions of trait CWM and FD to the variation in annual maximum NDVI, while controlling for climatic variables and spatial structure.

Results

Grassland communities dominated by relatively tall species with acquisitive traits had higher NDVI values, suggesting the prevalence of dominance effects for BEF relationships. We found no support for niche partitioning for the functional traits analysed, because NDVI remained unaffected by FD. Most of the predictive power of traits was shared by climatic predictors and spatial coordinates. This highlights the importance of community assembly processes for BEF relationships in natural communities.

Main conclusions

Our analysis provides empirical evidence that plant functional community structure and global patterns in primary productivity are linked through the resource economics and size traits of the dominant species. This is an important test of the hypotheses underlying BEF relationships at the global scale.     

Land use and life history limit migration capacity of eastern tree species

Aim

Temperate tree species overwhelmingly responded to past climate change by migrating rather than adapting. However, past climate change did not have the modern human‐driven patterns of land use and fragmentation, raising questions of whether tree migration will still be able to keep pace with climate. Previous studies using coarse‐grained or randomized landscapes suggest that dispersal may be delayed but have not identified outright barriers to migration. Here, we use real‐world fragmented landscapes at the scale of forest stands to assess the migration capacity of eastern tree species.

Location

Eastern U.S.A.

Time period

Present day to 2100.

Major taxa studied

Eastern U.S. trees.

Methods

We simulated dispersal over 100 years for 15 species common to the mid‐Atlantic region and that are predicted to gain suitable habitat in the northeast. In contrast to previous studies, we incorporated greater realism with species‐specific life histories and real‐world spatial configurations of anthropogenic land use. We used simulation results to calculate dispersal rates for each species and related these to predicted rates of species habitat shift.

Results

Our simulations suggest that land use in the human‐dominated east‐coast corridor slows species dispersal rates by 12–40% and may prevent keeping pace with climate. Species most impacted by anthropogenic land use were often those with the highest predicted species habitat shifts. We identified two major dispersal barriers, the Washington DC metropolitan area and central NY, that severely impeded tree migration.

Main conclusions

Patterns of anthropogenic land use not only slowed migration but also resulted in effective barriers to dispersal. These impacts were exacerbated by tree life histories, such as long ages to maturity and narrow dispersal kernels. Without intervention, the migration lags predicted here may lead to loss in biodiversity and ecosystem functions as current forest species decline, and may contribute to formation of novel communities.     

Traits help explain species' performance away from their climate niche centre

Aim

Climate change impacts on biota are variable across sites, among species and throughout individual species' ranges. Niche theory predicts that population performance should decline as site climate becomes increasingly different from the species' climate niche centre, though studies find significant variation from these predictions. Here, we propose that predictions about climate responses can be improved by incorporating species' trait information.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We used observations of plant species abundance change over time to assess variation in climate difference sensitivity (CDS), defined as how species performance (colonization, extinction and abundance change) relates to the difference of site climate from the mean temperature and precipitation of each species' range. We then investigated if leaf economics, plant size and seed mass traits were associated with the species' CDS.

Results

Species that performed better (e.g. increased in abundance) towards sites progressively cooler than their niche centre were shorter and had more resource-acquisitive leaves (i.e. lower leaf dry matter content or LDMC) relative to species with zero or the opposite pattern of temperature difference sensitivity. This result supports the hypothesis that if sites cooler than niche centres are more stressful for a species, then shorter stature is advantageous compared with taller species. The LDMC result suggests the environment selects for more resource-acquisitive leaf strategies towards relatively cooler climates with shorter growing seasons, counter to expectations that conservative strategies would be favoured in such environments. We found few consistent relationships between precipitation difference sensitivities and traits.

Main Conclusions

The results supported key a priori foundations on how trait-based plant strategies dictate species responses to climate variation away from their niche centre. Furthermore, plant height emerged as the most consistent trait that varied with species CDS, suggesting height will be key for theory development around species response to climate change.     

The responses of grassland plants to experimentally simulated climate change depend on land use and region

Macroclimatic niche properties derived from species distribution ranges are fundamental for projections of climate change impacts on biodiversity. However, it has been recognized that changes in regional or local distribution patterns also depend on interactions with land use. The reliability and transferability of large scale geographic predictions to small scale plant performance need to be tested experimentally. Thus, we asked how grassland plant species pairs with different macroclimatic niche properties respond to increased spring temperature and decrease summer precipitation in three different land‐use types. An experiment was carried out in the framework of the German Biodiversity Exploratories simulating climate change in 45 experimental plots in three geographical regions (Schorfheide‐Chorin, Hainich‐Dün, Schwäbische Alb) and three grassland management types (meadow, pasture, mown pasture). We planted six plant species as phytometers, each two of them representing congeneric species with contrasting macroclimatic niches and recorded plant survival and growth over 1 year. To quantify the species macroclimatic niches with respect to drought tolerance, the species’ distribution ranges were mapped and combined with global climate data. The simulated climate change had a general negative effect on plant survival and plant growth, irrespective of the macroclimatic niche characteristics of the species. Against expectation, species with ranges extending into drier regions did not generally perform better under drier conditions. Growth performance and survival was best in mown pastures, representing a quite intensive type of land use in all study regions. Species with higher macroclimatic drought tolerance were generally characterized by lower growth rates and higher survival rates in land‐use types with regular mowing regimes, probably because of reduced competition in the growing season. In conclusion, plant species with similar climatic niche characteristics cannot be expected to respond consistently over different regions owing to complex interactions of climate change with land use practices.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Asymmetric response of forest and grassy biomes to climate variability across the African Humid Period: influenced by anthropogenic disturbance?

A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between land cover, climate change and disturbance dynamics is needed to inform scenarios of vegetation change on the African continent. Although significant advances have been made, large uncertainties exist in projections of future biodiversity and ecosystem change for the world's largest tropical landmass. To better illustrate the effects of climate–disturbance–ecosystem interactions on continental-scale vegetation change, we apply a novel statistical multivariate envelope approach to subfossil pollen data and climate model outputs (TraCE-21ka). We target paleoenvironmental records across continental Africa, from the African Humid Period (AHP: ca 14 700–5500 yr BP) – an interval of spatially and temporally variable hydroclimatic conditions – until recent times, to improve our understanding of overarching vegetation trends and to compare changes between forest and grassy biomes (savanna and grassland). Our results suggest that although climate variability was the dominant driver of change, forest and grassy biomes responded asymmetrically: 1) the climatic envelope of grassy biomes expanded, or persisted in increasingly diverse climatic conditions, during the second half of the AHP whilst that of forest did not; 2) forest retreat occurred much more slowly during the mid to late Holocene compared to the early AHP forest expansion; and 3) as forest and grassy biomes diverged during the second half of the AHP, their ecological relationship (envelope overlap) fundamentally changed. Based on these asymmetries and associated changes in human land use, we propose and discuss three hypotheses about the influence of anthropogenic disturbance on continental-scale vegetation change.     

Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

Aims

Species distributions are hypothesized to be underlain by a complex association of processes that span multiple spatial scales including biotic interactions, dispersal limitation, fine‐scale resource gradients and climate. Species disequilibrium with climate may reflect the effects of non‐climatic processes on species distributions, yet distribution models have rarely directly considered non‐climatic processes. Here, we use a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM) to investigate the influence of non‐climatic factors on species co‐occurrence patterns and to directly quantify the relative influences of climate and alternative processes that may generate correlated responses in species distributions, such as species interactions, on tree co‐occurrence patterns.

Location

US Rocky Mountains.

Methods

We apply a Bayesian JSDM to simultaneously model the co‐occurrence patterns of ten dominant tree species across the Rocky Mountains, and evaluate climatic and residual correlations from the fitted model to determine the relative contribution of each component to observed co‐occurrence patterns. We also evaluate predictions generated from the fitted model relative to a single‐species modelling approach.

Results

For most species, correlation due to climate covariates exceeded residual correlation, indicating an overriding influence of broad‐scale climate on co‐occurrence patterns. Accounting for covariance among species did not significantly improve predictions relative to a single‐species approach, providing limited evidence for a strong independent influence of species interactions on distribution patterns.

Conclusions

Overall, our findings indicate that climate is an important driver of regional biodiversity patterns and that interactions between dominant tree species contribute little to explain species co‐occurrence patterns among Rocky Mountain trees.     

The main factors that drive plant dieback under extreme drought differ among Mediterranean shrubland plant biotypes

Questions

Knowledge of how extreme drought events induce plant dieback and, eventually, plant mortality, may improve our forecasting of ecosystem change according to future climate projections, especially in Mediterranean drylands. In them, shrublands are the main vegetation communities in transition areas from a subhumid to semi-arid climate. This study analyzed differences in plant dieback after an unusual drought in 2014 and identified their main underlying factors in relation to three groups of explanatory variables: water availability, soil properties and vegetation structure attributes.

Location

Four Mediterranean shrublands along a climatic gradient in SE Spain.

Methods

At each experimental field site, we sampled a pool of vegetation structure characteristics, soil depth and soil surface properties, and we also determined water availability by continuously monitoring soil moisture and the microclimate conditions.

Results

The climatic analysis showed that there was an extreme drought event in 2014, which was below the first percentile of the driest years. Under such conditions, vegetation dieback occurred at all the study sites. However, plant dieback differed between sites and plant biotypes. Subshrubs were the main affected biotype, with diebacks close to 60% at the driest sites, and up to 40% dieback for shrubs depending on their vertical development. Relative extractable water and bare soil surface cover were the best explanatory variables of plant community dieback but changed between plant biotypes. Vegetation structure variables related to plant vertical development (leaf area index [LAI], plant height, phytovolume) were significant explanatory variables of plant dieback in shrubs, subshrubs and grasses. Consecutive dry days fitted the best model to explain subshrub dieback.

Conclusions

We found that rainfall pattern rather than total annual rainfall was the climatic factor that best determined water availability for plants in Mediterranean drylands. These results also pointed out the relevance of plant structure and soil properties for explaining ecosystem responses to extreme drought.     

Land use impacts on biodiversity in LCA: a global approach

Purpose

Land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss and its environmental relevance is widely recognized in research on life cycle assessment (LCA). The inherent spatial heterogeneity of biodiversity and its non-uniform response to land use requires a regionalized assessment, whereas many LCA applications with globally distributed value chains require a global scale. This paper presents a first approach to quantify land use impacts on biodiversity across different world regions and highlights uncertainties and research needs.

Methods

The study is based on the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) land use assessment framework and focuses on occupation impacts, quantified as a biodiversity damage potential (BDP). Species richness of different land use types was compared to a (semi-)natural regional reference situation to calculate relative changes in species richness. Data on multiple species groups were derived from a global quantitative literature review and national biodiversity monitoring data from Switzerland. Differences across land use types, biogeographic regions (i.e., biomes), species groups and data source were statistically analyzed. For a data subset from the biome (sub-)tropical moist broadleaf forest, different species-based biodiversity indicators were calculated and the results compared.

Results and discussion

An overall negative land use impact was found for all analyzed land use types, but results varied considerably. Different land use impacts across biogeographic regions and taxonomic groups explained some of the variability. The choice of indicator also strongly influenced the results. Relative species richness was less sensitive to land use than indicators that considered similarity of species of the reference and the land use situation. Possible sources of uncertainty, such as choice of indicators and taxonomic groups, land use classification and regionalization are critically discussed and further improvements are suggested. Data on land use impacts were very unevenly distributed across the globe and considerable knowledge gaps on cause–effect chains remain.

Conclusions

The presented approach allows for a first rough quantification of land use impact on biodiversity in LCA on a global scale. As biodiversity is inherently heterogeneous and data availability is limited, uncertainty of the results is considerable. The presented characterization factors for BDP can approximate land use impacts on biodiversity in LCA studies that are not intended to directly support decision-making on land management practices. For such studies, more detailed and site-dependent assessments are required. To assess overall land use impacts, transformation impacts should additionally be quantified. Therefore, more accurate and regionalized data on regeneration times of ecosystems are needed.     

Climate change affects Galliformes taxonomic,phylogenetic and functional diversity indexes,shifting conservation priority areas in China

Aim

Comprehensive biodiversity protection necessitates the consideration of multiple indexes of diversity, and how the distribution patterns of priority areas may shift under climate change. Galliformes is a globally endangered avian order vulnerable to climate change that provide an important indicator for wildlife conservation effectiveness. Here, we identified priority areas for conserving Galliformes taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity in China and their spatial dynamics subject to climate change, and examined how well existing protected areas align with current and future priority areas.

Location

China.

Methods

We applied species distribution modelling and Zonation algorithms to identify conservation priority area dynamics for 47 galliform species across three biodiversity indexes subject to three future climate change scenarios to 2050s and 2070s. We overlaid these identified priority areas onto existing national nature reserves and national parks to assess and project their effectiveness.

Results

Current priority areas proved spatially incongruent between indexes, with an optimal area overlap comprising just 10.3% of China's land area, lying largely outside of existing protected areas. Furthermore, over 80% of modelled optimal priority areas currently lacked formal conservation status. Future priority areas will shift substantially under climate change, to an extent dependent on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Nevertheless, we identified five large regions where optimal Galliformes diversity indexes should remain stable under all scenarios, thus providing potential climatic refugia, if protected from human encroachment.

Main Conclusions

The current deficits we identified for Galliformes protection in China resonate with a broader need for hierarchical conservation strategic planning across regions and ecosystems to ensure long-term biodiversity protection, accommodating for climate change.     

Climate change impacts on Mediterranean vegetation are amplified at low altitudes

Aim

In the face of ongoing climate warming, we wanted to quantify impacts on vegetation at one of the major climatic and biogeographical boundaries of Europe, the limit between the Mediterranean and Eurosiberian biogeographical regions. We analyse temperature and moisture requirements of plants along altitudinal gradients at regional scale in the period 1980–2020 and we explore if changes coincide with observed changes in the same regions in terms of measured climatic data.

Location

Southern France.

Time period

1980–2020.

Taxa

Vascular plants.

Methods

We calculated shifts in plants’ temperature and moisture requirements for a large floristic database from south-eastern France (SIMETHIS) during the period 1980–2020 along altitudinal gradients by using ecological indicator values (EIV). Additionally, we analysed standardized weather station data from the same area and period, to investigate whether floristic changes are synchronized with climate changes.

Results

Vegetation data suggest a linear increase in temperature requirements of plant communities from 1980 to 2020 with a greater change at low altitudes. Upward shifts in temperature requirements coincided with observed climate change although warming did not show a general trend towards greater increases at low altitudes. Data on vegetation and climate suggest an upward shift of respectively 150 and 300 m for the boundary between Mediterranean and temperate belts. Moisture requirements of vegetation indicate an increase of the frequency of dry adapted species at low altitudes but an increase towards higher moisture requirements at high altitudes. Comparing vegetation responses with climate data suggests that responses are faster at low altitudes.

Main conclusions

Our analyses show that strong general changes in vegetation are underway and highlight faster responses of vegetation to warming in low altitudes compared to high altitudes and demonstrate the need for reliable data on vegetation and climate changes, especially on water balance.