Changes in the diet and body size of a small herbivorous mammal (hispid cotton rat,Sigmodon hispidus) following the late Pleistocene megafauna extinction

The catastrophic loss of large-bodied mammals during the terminal Pleistocene likely led to cascading effects within communities. While the extinction of the top consumers probably expanded the resources available to survivors of all body sizes, little work has focused on the responses of the smallest mammals. Here, we use a detailed fossil record from the southwestern United States to examine the response of the hispid cotton rat Sigmodon hispidus to biodiversity loss and climatic change over the late Quaternary. In particular, we focus on changes in diet and body size. We characterize diet through carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotope analysis of bone collagen in fossil jaws and body size through measurement of fossil teeth; the abundance of material allows us to examine population level responses at millennial scale for the past 16 ka. Sigmodon was not present at the cave during the full glacial, first appearing at ~16 ka after ice sheets were in retreat. It remained relatively rare until ~12 ka when warming temperatures allowed it to expand its species range northward. We find variation in both diet and body size of Sigmodon hispidus over time: the average body size of the population varied by ~20% (90–110 g) and mean δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values ranged between −13.5 to −16.5‰ and 5.5 to 7.4‰ respectively. A state–space model suggested changes in mass were influenced by diet, maximum temperature and community structure, while the modest changes in diet were most influenced by community structure. Sigmodon maintained a fairly similar dietary niche over time despite contemporaneous changes in climate and herbivore community composition that followed the megafauna extinction. Broadly, our results suggest that small mammals may be as sensitive to shifts in local biotic interactions within their ecosystem as they are to changes in climate and large-scale biodiversity loss.     

Stochastic resonance in climate reddening increases the risk of cyclic ecosystem extinction via phase-tipping

Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent work indicates that the changing variability, that is, the amplitude and the temporal autocorrelation of deviations from the mean, may have greater and more imminent impact on ecosystems. In this paper, we demonstrate that changes in climate variability alone could drive cyclic predator–prey ecosystems to extinction via so-called phase-tipping (P-tipping), a new type of instability that occurs only from certain phases of the predator–prey cycle. We construct a mathematical model of a variable climate and couple it to two self-oscillating paradigmatic predator–prey models. Most importantly, we combine realistic parameter values for the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare with actual climate data from the boreal forest. In this way, we demonstrate that critically important species in the boreal forest have increased likelihood of P-tipping to extinction under predicted changes in climate variability, and are most vulnerable during stages of the cycle when the predator population is near its maximum. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stochastic resonance is the underlying mechanism for the increased likelihood of P-tipping to extinction.     

Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050

The rapidly increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may lead to significant changes in regional and seasonal climate patterns. Such changes can strongly influence the diversity and distribution of species and, therefore, affect ecosystems and biodiversity. To assess these changes we developed a model, called euromove. The model uses climate data from 1990 to 2050 as compiled from the image 2 model, and determines climate envelopes for about 1400 plant species by multiple logistic regression analysis. The climate envelopes were applied to the projected climate to obtain predictions about plant diversity and distributions by 2050. For each European grid cell, euromove calculates which species would still occur in forecasted future climate conditions and which not. The results show major changes in biodiversity by 2050. On average, 32% of the European plant species that were present in a cell in 1990 would disappear from that cell. The area, in which 32% or more of the 1990 species will disappear, takes up 44% of the modelled European area. Individual responses of the plant species to the forecasted climate change were diverse. In reviewing possible future trends, we found that plant species, in general, would find their current climate envelopes further northeast by 2050, shifting ranges that were comparable with those ranges in other studies.     

Patterns and drivers of plant functional group dominance across the Western Hemisphere: a macroecological re‐assessment based on a massive botanical dataset

Plant functional group dominance has been linked to climate, topography and anthropogenic factors. Here, we assess existing theory linking functional group dominance patterns to their drivers by quantifying the spatial distribution of plant functional groups at a 100‐km grid scale. We use a standardized plant species occurrence dataset of unprecedented size covering the entire New World. Functional group distributions were estimated from 3 648 533 standardized occurrence records for a total of 83 854 vascular plant species, extracted from the Botanical Information and Ecology Network (BIEN) database. Seven plant functional groups were considered, describing major differences in structure and function: epiphytes; climbers; ferns; herbs; shrubs; coniferous trees; and angiosperm trees. Two measures of dominance (relative number of occurrences and relative species richness) were analysed against a range of hypothesized predictors. The functional groups showed distinct geographical patterns of dominance across the New World. Temperature seasonality and annual precipitation were most frequently selected, supporting existing hypotheses for the geographical dominance of each functional group. Human influence and topography were secondarily important. Our results support the prediction that future climate change and anthropogenic pressures could shift geographical patterns in dominance of plant functional groups, with probable consequences for ecosystem functioning. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2016, 180 , 141–160.     

Comparative landscape genetics of two river frog species occurring at different elevations on Mount Kilimanjaro

Estimating population connectivity and species' abilities to disperse across the landscape is crucial for understanding the long‐term persistence of species in changing environments. Surprisingly, few landscape genetic studies focused on tropical regions despite the alarming extinction rates within these ecosystems. Here, we compared the influence of landscape features on the distribution of genetic variation of an Afromontane frog, Amietia wittei, with that of its more broadly distributed lowland congener, Amietia angolensis, on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. We predicted high gene flow in the montane species with movements enhanced through terrestrial habitats of the continuous rainforest. In contrast, dispersal might be restricted to aquatic corridors and reduced by anthropogenic disturbance in the lowland species. We found high gene flow in A. wittei relative to other montane amphibians. Nonetheless, gene flow was lower than in the lowland species which showed little population structure. Least‐cost path analysis suggested that dispersal is facilitated by stream networks in both species, but different landscape features were identified to influence connectivity among populations. Contrary to a previous study, gene flow in the lowland species was negatively correlated with the presence of human settlements. Also, genetic subdivision in A. wittei did not coincide with specific physical barriers as in other landscape genetic studies, suggesting that factors other than topography may contribute to population divergence. Overall, these results highlight the importance of a comparative landscape genetic approach for assessing the influence of the landscape matrix on population connectivity, particularly because nonintuitive results can alter the course of conservation and management.     

Temporal lags in observed and dark diversity in the Anthropocene

Understanding biodiversity changes in the Anthropocene (e.g. due to climate and land‐use change) is an urgent ecological issue. This important task is challenging because global change effects and species responses are dependent on the spatial scales considered. Furthermore, responses are often not immediate. However, both scale and time delay issues can be tackled when, at each study site, we consider dynamics in both observed and dark diversity. Dark diversity includes those species in the region that can potentially establish and thrive in the local sites’ conditions but are currently locally absent. Effectively, dark diversity connects biodiversity at the study site to the regional scales and defines the site‐specific species pool (observed and dark diversity together). With dark diversity, it is possible to decompose species gains and losses into two space‐related components: one associated with local dynamics (species moving from observed to dark diversity and vice versa) and another related to gains and losses of site‐specific species pool (species moving to and from the pool after regional immigration, regional extinction or change in local ecological conditions). Extinction debt and immigration credit are useful to understand dynamics in observed diversity, but delays might happen in species pool changes as well. In this opinion piece we suggest that considering both observed and dark diversity and their temporal dynamics provides a deeper understanding of biodiversity changes. Considering both observed and dark diversity creates opportunities to improve conservation by allowing to identify species that are likely to go regionally extinct as well as foreseeing which of the species that newly arrive to the region are more likely to colonize local sites. Finally, by considering temporal lags and species gains and losses in observed and dark diversity, we combine phenomena at both spatial and temporal scales, providing a novel tool to examine biodiversity change in the Anthropocene.     

Human activities and climate variability drive fast‐paced change across the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea‐land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.     

Managing biodiversity data within the context of climate change: towards best practice

Decision makers, planners and researchers have identified the need to assess the effects of climate change on biodiversity, resulting in extensive research across a number of fields. The availability of comprehensive, accurate and relevant data is central to undertaking effective research. However, the quality and availability of biodiversity information is substantially determined by current and historical data collection strategies. If researchers and planners are to make effective use of existing and future investments in biodiversity information, a strategic approach should be taken in identifying and implementing best practice information management. This paper discusses ways to improve institutional support for information management and increase the availability of quality information. The paper reviews the most common areas of climate change and biodiversity research, and identifies best practices in information management, focusing on data used within biodiversity and climate change analyses.     

Assessing the causes of diversification slowdowns: temperature‐dependent and diversity‐dependent models receive equivalent support

Diversification rates vary over time, yet the factors driving these variations remain unclear. Temporal declines in speciation rates have often been interpreted as the effect of ecological limits, competition, and diversity dependence, emphasising the role of biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as climate change, are also supposed to have affected diversification rates over geological time scales, yet direct tests of these presumed effects have mainly been limited to few clades well represented in the fossil record. If warmer climatic periods have sustained faster speciation, this could explain slowdowns in speciation during the Cenozoic climate cooling. Here, we apply state‐of‐the art diversity‐dependent and temperature‐dependent phylogenetic models of diversification to 218 tetrapod families, along with constant rate and time‐dependent models. We confirm the prevalence of diversification slowdowns, and find as much support for temperature‐dependent than diversity‐dependent models. These results call for a better integration of these two processes in studies of diversification dynamics.     

Climate change‐induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China

Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.     

Higher temperatures enhance the effects of invasive sportfish on mountain zooplankton communities

1. Decades of introductions of exotic sportfish to mountain lakes around the world have impoverished them biologically, and this may be exacerbated by global warming. We assessed the current status of invasive salmonids and native zooplankton communities in 34 naturally fishless lakes along an elevational gradient, which served as an environmental proxy for the expected effects of climate change. 2. Our main goal was to explore how climate‐related variables influence the effects of stocked salmonids on the total biomass, species richness and taxonomic composition of zooplankton. We predicted that warmer conditions would dampen the negative predatory effects of exotic brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) on zooplankton communities because more temperate lakes contain a greater diversity of potentially tolerant species. 3. Instead, we discovered that the persistence of stocked brook trout in the warmer lakes significantly amplified total zooplankton biomass and species richness. In colder and deeper lakes, zooplankton were relatively unaffected by S. fontinalis, which however persisted better in alpine lakes than at lower elevations after stocking practices were halted over two decades ago. Warmer lake conditions and higher concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were significant primary drivers of zooplankton species turnover, both favouring greater species diversity. 4. Our findings of an ecological surprise involving potential synergistic positive effects of climate warming and exotic trout on native zooplankton communities presents a conundrum for managers of certain national mountain parks. Present mandates to eradicate non‐native trout and return the mountain lakes to their naturally fishless state may conflict with efforts to conserve biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate.     

A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record

The past relationship between global temperature and levels of biological diversity is of increasing concern due to anthropogenic climate warming. However, no consistent link between these variables has yet been demonstrated. We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr against estimates of low latitude sea surface temperature for the same period. We found that global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm 'greenhouse' phases, while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high. These findings are consistent for terrestrial and marine environments and are robust to a number of alternative assumptions and potential biases. Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. Our findings may have implications for extinction and biodiversity change under future climate warming.     

Natural acidification changes the timing and rate of succession,alters community structure,and increases homogeneity in marine biofouling communities

Ocean acidification may have far‐reaching consequences for marine community and ecosystem dynamics, but its full impacts remain poorly understood due to the difficulty of manipulating pCO₂ at the ecosystem level to mimic realistic fluctuations that occur on a number of different timescales. It is especially unclear how quickly communities at various stages of development respond to intermediate‐scale pCO₂ change and, if high pCO₂ is relieved mid‐succession, whether past acidification effects persist, are reversed by alleviation of pCO₂ stress, or are worsened by departures from prior high pCO₂ conditions to which organisms had acclimatized. Here, we used reciprocal transplant experiments along a shallow water volcanic pCO₂ gradient to assess the importance of the timing and duration of high pCO₂ exposure (i.e., discrete events at different stages of successional development vs. continuous exposure) on patterns of colonization and succession in a benthic fouling community. We show that succession at the acidified site was initially delayed (less community change by 8 weeks) but then caught up over the next 4 weeks. These changes in succession led to homogenization of communities maintained in or transplanted to acidified conditions, and altered community structure in ways that reflected both short‐ and longer‐term acidification history. These community shifts are likely a result of interspecific variability in response to increased pCO₂ and changes in species interactions. High pCO₂ altered biofilm development, allowing serpulids to do best at the acidified site by the end of the experiment, although early (pretransplant) negative effects of pCO₂ on recruitment of these worms were still detectable. The ascidians Diplosoma sp. and Botryllus sp. settled later and were more tolerant to acidification. Overall, transient and persistent acidification‐driven changes in the biofouling community, via both past and more recent exposure, could have important implications for ecosystem function and food web dynamics.     

Species richness and phylogenetic diversity of seed plants across vegetation zones of Mount Kenya,East Africa

Mount Kenya is of ecological importance in tropical east Africa due to the dramatic gradient in vegetation types that can be observed from low to high elevation zones. However, species richness and phylogenetic diversity of this mountain have not been well studied. Here, we surveyed distribution patterns for a total of 1,335 seed plants of this mountain and calculated species richness and phylogenetic diversity across seven vegetation zones. We also measured phylogenetic structure using the net relatedness index (NRI) and the nearest species index (NTI). Our results show that lower montane wet forest has the highest level of species richness, density, and phylogenetic diversity of woody plants, while lower montane dry forest has the highest level of species richness, density, and phylogenetic diversity in herbaceous plants. In total plants, NRI and NTI of four forest zones were smaller than three alpine zones. In woody plants, lower montane wet forest and upper montane forest have overdispersed phylogenetic structures. In herbaceous plants, NRI of Afro‐alpine zone and nival zone are smaller than those of bamboo zone, upper montane forest, and heath zone. We suggest that compared to open dry forest, humid forest has fewer herbaceous plants because of the closed canopy of woody plants. Woody plants may have climate‐dominated niches, whereas herbaceous plants may have edaphic and microhabitat‐dominated niches. We also proposed lower and upper montane forests with high species richness or overdispersed phylogenetic structures as the priority areas in conservation of Mount Kenya and other high mountains in the Eastern Afro‐montane biodiversity hotspot regions.     

Soil warming increases plant species richness but decreases germination from the alpine soil seed bank

Global warming is occurring more rapidly above the treeline than at lower elevations and alpine areas are predicted to experience above average warming in the future. Temperature is a primary factor in stimulating seed germination and regulating changes in seed dormancy status. Thus, plant regeneration from seed will be crucial to the persistence, migration and post disturbance recruitment of alpine plants in future climates. Here, we present the first assessment of the impact of soil warming on germination from the persistent alpine soil seed bank. Contrary to expectations, soil warming lead to reduced overall germination from the soil seed bank. However, germination response to soil temperature was species specific such that total species richness actually increased by nine with soil warming. We further explored the system by assessing the prevalence of seed dormancy and germination response to soil disturbance, the frequency of which is predicted to increase under climate change. Seeds of a significant proportion of species demonstrated physiological dormancy mechanisms and germination of several species appeared to be intrinsically linked to soil disturbance. In addition, we found no evidence of subalpine species and little evidence of exotic weed species in the soil, suggesting that the soil seed bank will not facilitate their invasion of the alpine zone. In conclusion, changes in recruitment via the alpine soil seed bank can be expected under climate change, as a result of altered dormancy alleviation and germination cues. Furthermore, the alpine soil seed bank, and the species richness therein, has the potential to help maintain local species diversity, support species range shift and moderate species dominance. Implications for alpine management and areas for further study are also discussed.     

Climate induced increases in species richness of marine fishes

Climate change has been predicted to lead to changes in local and regional species richness through species extinctions and latitudinal ranges shifts. Here, we show that species richness of fish in the North Sea, a group of ecological and socio-economical importance, has increased over a 22-year period and that this rise is related to higher water temperatures. Over eight times more fish species displayed increased distribution ranges in the North Sea (mainly small-sized species of southerly origin) compared with those whose range decreased (primarily large and northerly species). This increase in species richness can be explained from the fact that fish species richness in general decreases with latitude. This observation confirms that the interaction between large-scale biogeographical patterns and climate change may lead to increasing species richness at temperate latitudes.