Long-term potential for tropical-forest degradation due to deforestation and fires in the Brazilian Amazon

Biome models of the global climate-vegetation relationships indicate that most of the Brazilian Amazon has potential for being covered by tropical forests. From current land-use processes observed in the region, however, substantial deforestation and fire activity have been verified in large portions of the region, particularly along the Arc of Deforestation. In a first attempt to evaluate the long-term potential for tropical-forest degradation due to deforestation and fires in the Brazilian Amazon, we analysed large-scale data on fire activity and climate factors that drive the distribution of tropical forests in the region. The initial analyses and results from this study lead to important details on the relations between these quantities and have important implications for building future parameterizations of the vulnerability of tropical forests in the region.     

Satellite‐based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon

Anthropogenic and natural forest disturbance cause ecological damage and carbon emissions. Forest disturbance in the Amazon occurs in the form of deforestation (conversion of forest to non‐forest land covers), degradation from the extraction of forest resources, and destruction from natural events. The crucial role of the Amazon rainforest in the hydrologic cycle has even led to the speculation of a disturbance “tipping point” leading to a collapse of the tropical ecosystem. Here we use time series analysis of Landsat data to map deforestation, degradation, and natural disturbance in the Amazon Ecoregion from 1995 to 2017. The map was used to stratify the study area for selection of sample units that were assigned reference labels based on their land cover and disturbance history. An unbiased statistical estimator was applied to the sample of reference observations to obtain estimates of area and uncertainty at biennial time intervals. We show that degradation and natural disturbance, largely during periods of severe drought, have affected as much of the forest area in the Amazon Ecoregion as deforestation from 1995 to 2017. Consequently, an estimated 17% (1,036,800 ± 24,800 km², 95% confidence interval) of the original forest area has been disturbed as of 2017. Our results suggest that the area of disturbed forest in the Amazon is 44%–60% more than previously realized, indicating an unaccounted for source of carbon emissions and pervasive damage to forest ecosystems.     

Determination of tropical deforestation rates and related carbon losses from 1990 to 2010

We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) based on a sample of 4000 units of 10 ×10 km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30 × 30 m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan‐tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha yr^?1 in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha yr^?1 in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and Other Wooded Land (OWL) cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC yr^?1 (range: 646–1238) and 880 MtC yr^?1 (range: 602–1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two‐thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000–2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC yr^?1 (range: 61–168) and 97 MtC yr^?1 (53–141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates.     

Challenges to estimating carbon emissions from tropical deforestation

An accurate estimate of carbon fluxes associated with tropical deforestation from the last two decades is needed to balance the global carbon budget. Several studies have already estimated carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, but the estimates vary greatly and are difficult to compare due to differences in data sources, assumptions, and methodologies. In this paper, we review the different estimates and datasets, and the various challenges associated with comparing them and with accurately estimating carbon emissions from deforestation. We performed a simulation study over legal Amazonia to illustrate some of these major issues. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land-cover dynamics following deforestation, including the fluxes from reclearing of secondary vegetation, the decay of product and slash pools, and the fluxes from regrowing forest. It also suggests that accurate carbon-flux estimates will need to consider historical land-cover changes for at least the previous 20 years. However, this result is highly sensitive to estimates of the partitioning of cleared carbon into instantaneous burning vs. long-timescale slash pools. We also show that carbon flux estimates based on 'committed flux' calculations, as used by a few studies, are not comparable with the 'annual balance' calculation method used by other studies.     

Solute dynamics in soil water and groundwater in a central Amazon catchment undergoing deforestation

Hydrochemical changes caused by slash-and-burnagricultural practices in a small upland catchment inthe central Amazon were measured. Soluteconcentrations were analyzed in wet deposition,overland flow, shallow throughflow, groundwater andbank seepage in a forested plot (about 5 ha) and anadjacent plot (about 2 ha) which had been deforestedin July 1989 and planted to manioc, and in streamwater in partially deforested and forested catchments. Measurements were made from November 1988 to June1990. The effects of slash-and-burn agriculturalpractices observed in the experimental plot includedincreased overland flow, erosion, and large losses ofsolutes from the rooted zone. Concentrations ofNO₃ ^-, Na⁺, K⁺, SO₄ ²-,Cl^- and Mn in throughflow of the experimentalplot were higher than those of the control plot bymore than a factor of 10. Extensive leaching occurredafter cutting and burning, but solute transfers werediminished along pathway stages of throughflow togroundwater, and particularly within the riparian zoneof the catchment. High concentrations of N and P inoverland flow indicate the importance of usingforested riparian buffers to mitigate solute inputs toreceiving waters in tropical catchments.     

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local‐level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr^?1 from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr^?1 of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well‐defined ‘local hotspots’ of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.     

Fine root biomass under light gap openings in an Amazon rain forest

Summary Belowground processes in light gap openings are poorly understood, particularly in tropical forests. Fine roots in three zones of light gap openings and adjacent intact forest were regularly measured in buried bags and surface litter envelopes for 2 years. Fine root biomass does not vary significantly within gaps for either buried bags or for surface litter envelopes. When entire gaps are compared without regard for within gap zones, root growth into both surface litter and buried bags is significantly different between gaps, with highest rates of fine root biomass accumulation in the smallest gap. These results suggest that the aboveground within-gap zones do not result in a congruent pattern of below-ground zonation. Gap size, decomposition of the fallen tree, and pre-gap fine root growth rates should be considered to determine fine root growth patterns following the formation of light gap openings.     

The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model

We developed a process‐based model of forest growth, carbon cycling and land‐cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land‐Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (nonflooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re‐growth over the period from 1970 to 1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of ～0.35 PgC yr^?1 (1 PgC= 1 × 10¹⁵ gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of ～7 PgC from 1970 to 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study ( Houghton et al., 2000 ) by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989–1998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared with the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by～1 PgC from 1970 to 1998, while different assumptions about land‐cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte‐Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).     

The ghosts of forests past and future: deforestation and botanical sampling in the Brazilian Amazon

The remarkable biodiversity of the Brazilian Amazon is poorly documented and threatened by deforestation. When undocumented areas become deforested, in addition to losing the fauna and flora, we lose the opportunity to know which unique species had occupied a habitat. Here we quantify such knowledge loss by calculating how much of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested and will likely be deforested until 2050 without having its tree flora sufficiently documented. To this end, we analysed 399 147 digital specimens of nearly 6000 tree species in relation to official deforestation statistics and future deforestation scenarios. We find that by 2017, 30% of all the localities where tree specimens had been collected were mostly deforested. Some 300 000 km² (12%; 485 25 × 25 km grid cells) of the Brazilian Amazon had been deforested by 2017, without having a single tree specimen recorded. An additional 250 000–900 000 km² of severely under-collected rainforest will likely become deforested by 2050. If future tree sampling is to cover this area, sampling effort has to increase two- to six-fold. Nearly 255 000 km² or 7% of rainforest in the Brazilian Amazon is easily accessible but does yet but remain under-collected. Our study highlights how progressing deforestation increases the risk of losing undocumented species of a hyper-diverse tree flora.     

Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon

Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km² yr^?1 in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large‐scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land‐use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative ‘Sustainability’ scenario in which we envision major socio‐economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear‐cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old‐growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation‐driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km² yr^?1) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation – in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO₂ – even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old‐growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear‐cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.     

Effects of large-scale Amazon forest degradation on climate and air quality through fluxes of carbon dioxide, water, energy, mineral dust and isoprene

Loss of large areas of Amazonian forest, through either direct human impact or climate change, could exert a number of influences on the regional and global climates. In the Met Office Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model, a severe drying of this region initiates forest loss that exerts a number of feedbacks on global and regional climates, which magnify the drying and the forest degradation. This paper provides an overview of the multiple feedback process in the Hadley Centre model and discusses the implications of the results for the case of direct human-induced deforestation. It also examines additional potential effects of forest loss through changes in the emissions of mineral dust and biogenic volatile organic compounds. The implications of ecosystem-climate feedbacks for climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are also discussed.     

A bioregional analysis of the distribution of rainforest cover,deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is an extensively forested country. Recent research suggests that despite commencing a trajectory of deforestation and degradation later than many counties in the Asia–Pacific region, PNG is now undergoing comparable rates of forest change. Here we explore the bioregional distribution of changes in the forest estate over the period 1972–2002 and examine their implications for forest protection. This is undertaken through the development of a novel bioregional classification of the country based on biogeographic regions and climatic zones, and its application to existing forest cover and forest‐cover change data. We found that degradation and deforestation varied considerably across the 11 defined biogeographic regions. We report that the majority of deforestation and degradation has occurred within all the lowland forests, and that it is these forests that have the greatest potential for further losses in the near term. The largest percentage of total change occurred in the east of PNG, in the islands and lowlands of the Bismarck, D'Entrecasteaux, East Papuan Islands and in the South‐East Papua–Oro region. The only region with a significant highlands component to undergo deforestation at a comparable magnitude to the islands and lowland regions was the Huon Peninsula and Adelbert region. Significant changes have also occurred at higher elevations, especially at the interface of subalpine grasslands and upper montane forests. Lower montane forests have experienced proportionally less change, yet it is these forests that constitute the majority of forests enclosed within the protected area system. We find that protected areas are not convincingly protecting either representative areas of PNG's ecosystems, nor the forests within their borders. We conclude by suggesting a more expansive and integrated approach to managing the national forest estate.     

The spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon: a comparison of estimates

The amount of carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of deforestation is determined, in part, by the amount of carbon held in the biomass of the forests converted to other uses. Uncertainty in forest biomass is responsible for much of the uncertainty in current estimates of the flux of carbon from land‐use change. In the present contribution several estimates of forest biomass are compared for the Brazilian Amazon, based on spatial interpolations of direct measurements, relationships to climatic variables, and remote sensing data. Three questions were posed: First, do the methods yield similar estimates? Second, do they yield similar spatial patterns of distribution of biomass? And, third, what factors need most attention if we are to predict more accurately the distribution of forest biomass over large areas? The answer to the first two questions is that estimates of biomass for Brazil's Amazonian forests (including dead and belowground biomass) vary by more than a factor of two, from a low of 39 PgC to a high of 93 PgC. Furthermore, the estimates disagree as to the regions of high and low biomass. The lack of agreement among estimates confirms the need for reliable determination of aboveground biomass over large areas. Potential methods include direct measurement of biomass through forest inventories with improved allometric regression equations, dynamic modelling of forest recovery following observed stand‐replacing disturbances, and estimation of aboveground biomass from airborne or satellite‐based instruments sensitive to the vertical structure plant canopies.     

Damage to living trees contributes to almost half of the biomass losses in tropical forests

Accurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36–5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹; CI 5.57–12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage-related AGB losses rather than by mortality-related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand-level AGB stocks by 4% (1%–17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%–57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage-related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%–80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.     

Mapping gains and losses in woody vegetation across global tropical drylands

Woody vegetation in global tropical drylands is of significant importance for both the interannual variability of the carbon cycle and local livelihoods. Satellite observations over the past decades provide a unique way to assess the vegetation long‐term dynamics across biomes worldwide. Yet, the actual changes in the woody vegetation are always hidden by interannual fluctuations of the leaf density, because the most widely used remote sensing data are primarily related to the photosynthetically active vegetation components. Here, we quantify the temporal trends of the nonphotosynthetic woody components (i.e., stems and branches) in global tropical drylands during 2000–2012 using the vegetation optical depth (VOD), retrieved from passive microwave observations. This is achieved by a novel method focusing on the dry season period to minimize the influence of herbaceous vegetation and using MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to remove the interannual fluctuations of the woody leaf component. We revealed significant trends (P < 0.05) in the woody component (VOD_wood) in 35% of the areas characterized by a nonsignificant trend in the leaf component (VOD_leaf modeled from NDVI), indicating pronounced gradual growth/decline in woody vegetation not captured by traditional assessments. The method is validated using a unique record of ground measurements from the semiarid Sahel and shows a strong agreement between changes in VOD_wood and changes in ground observed woody cover (r² = 0.78). Reliability of the obtained woody component trends is also supported by a review of relevant literatures for eight hot spot regions of change. The proposed approach is expected to contribute to an improved assessment of, for example, changes in dryland carbon pools.     

Pasture degradation in the central Amazon: linking changes in carbon and nutrient cycling with remote sensing

The majority of deforested land in the Amazon Basin has become cattle pasture, making forest‐to‐pasture conversion an important contributor to the carbon (C) and climate dynamics of the region. However, our understanding of biogeochemical dynamics in pasturelands remains poor, especially when attempting to scale up predictions of C cycle changes. A wide range of pasture ages, soil types, management strategies, and climates make remote sensing the only realistic means to regionalize our understanding of pasture biogeochemistry and C cycling over such an enormous geographic area. However, the use of remote sensing has been impeded by a lack of effective links between variables that can be observed from satellites (e.g. live and senescent biomass) and variables that cannot be observed, but which may drive key changes in C storage and trace gas fluxes (e.g. soil nutrient status). We studied patterns in canopy biophysical–biochemical properties and soil biogeochemical processes along pasture age gradients on two important soil types in the central Amazon. Our goals were to (1) improve our understanding of the plot‐scale biogeochemical dynamics of this land‐use change, (2) evaluate the effects of pasture development on two contrasting soil types (clayey Oxisols and sandy Entisols), and (3) attempt to use remotely sensed variables to scale up the site‐specific variability in biogeochemical conditions of pasturelands. The biogeochemical analyses showed that (1) aboveground and soil C stocks decreased with pasture age on both clayey and sandy soils, (2) declines in plant biomass were well correlated with declines in soil C and with available phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca), and (3) despite low initial values for total and available soil P, ecosystem P stocks declined further with pasture age, as did a number of other nutrients. Spectral mixture analysis of Landsat imagery provided estimates of photosynthetic vegetation (PV) and non‐photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) that were highly correlated with field measurements of these variables and plant biomass. In turn, the remotely sensed sum PV+NPV was well correlated with the changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen, and available P and Ca. These results suggest that remote sensing can be an excellent indicator of not only pasture area, but of pasture condition and C storage, thereby greatly improving regional estimates of the environmental consequences of such land‐use change.     

Changes in carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus levels due to deforestation and cultivation: A case study in Simlipal National Park,India

The study area, within the Simlipal National Park, India, provides a rare variety of soil sampling sites. These include virgin forests in the proximity of several cultivated areas (where no chemical fertilizers or any modern technology has been used and where periods of cultivation vary from 5 to a little over 100 yr); samples from evergreen forests, deciduous forests and natural grasslands could also be obtained. The availability of numerous such samples made it possible to use statistical methods to evaluate the changes. This study showed that deforestation and cultivation result in statistically significant (P_0.05) reduction in organic C, total N and C:N ratios but no significant changes in total and available P levels; C:P and N:P ratios are also reduced. Loss of organic C and N occurs rapidly in the first 15 yr of cultivation and reaches quasi-steady state values around 1–2% organic C and 0.1–0.2% total N; extent of reduction is not related to initial levels. Significant reduction in C:N, C:P ratios following cultivation suggest that mineralisation losses of C are higher than loss of N whereas loss of P is lowest. Lack of significant correlation between organic C and P levels in all types of soils, suggests that the bulk of the P is in the inorganic form. Highest levels of organic C and N were observed in evergreen forests followed by deciduous forests, grasslands and cultivated areas in that order; total and available P levels, however, showed no significant differences. Evergreen vegetative cover appears to provide the ideal environment for organic matter accumulation.     

Is soil degradation unrelated to deforestation? Examining soil parameters of land use systems in upland Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

It is generally assumed that declining soil fertility during cultivation forces farmers to clear forest. We wanted to test this for a rainforest margin area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We compared soil characteristics in different land-use systems and after different length of cultivation. 66 sites with four major land-use systems (maize, agroforestry, forest fallow and natural forest) were sampled. Soils were generally fertile, with high base cation saturation, high cation exchange capacity, moderate pH-values and moderate to high stocks of total nitrogen. Organic matter stocks were highest in natural forest, intermediate in forest fallow and lowest in maize and agroforestry sites. In maize fields soil organic matter decreased during continuous cultivation, whereas in agroforestry it was stable or had the tendency to increase in time. The effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) was highest in natural forest and lowest in maize fields. Base cations saturation of ECEC did not change significantly during cultivation both maize and agroforestry, whereas the contribution of K cations decreased in maize and showed no changes in agroforestry sites. Our results indicate that maize cultivation tends to reduce soil fertility but agroforestry systems are able to stop this decline of soil fertility or even improve it. As most areas in this rain forest margin are converted into agroforestry systems it is unlikely that soil degradation causes deforestation in this case. On the contrary, the relatively high soil fertility may actually attract new immigrants who contribute to deforestation and start agriculture as smallholders.