Long‐term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality,regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia

Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long‐term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long‐term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long‐term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900–2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests.     

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species‐level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree‐ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring‐width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994–1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi‐arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi‐arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.     

Managing red pine stand structure to mitigate drought impacts

Reducing forest stand density through silvicultural thinning has demonstrated potential to mitigate drought impacts on growth; however, less has been studied on how changes in stand structure created by different thinning methods influence forest growth responses to drought. This research examined the growth responses to drought of natural-origin red pine in a long-term study contrasting thinning methods. Dendrochronological methods were used to examine growth responses during several drought events among stands where different thinning methods have been applied since 1950. Growth responses to drought were expressed as resistance (maintaining growth during drought), and resilience (regaining pre-drought growth). Results indicate that periodic thinning from above, which resulted in smaller diameters, has the potential to moderate drought-induced growth reductions. Larger tree diameters negatively influenced tree-level resistance and resilience across all treatments; however, the proportion of dominant trees in a stand had contrasting effects on stand-level drought responses. Stands thinned from above exhibited more complex vertical structure and increased stand-level resistance and resilience to drought-induced growth declines because competition is more stratified among smaller diameter trees. Opposite trends were observed in stands thinned from below, where the larger diameters and monolayered structure create greater competition among trees of similar size and crown position. The results of this study highlight the utility in managing for greater structural diversity to mitigate the negative effects of drought in red pine forest ecosystems.     

High and dry: post‐fire tree seedling establishment in subalpine forests decreases with post‐fire drought and large stand‐replacing burn patches

Aim Climate warming and increased wildfire activity are hypothesized to catalyse biogeographical shifts, reducing the resilience of fire‐prone forests world‐wide. Two key mechanisms underpinning hypotheses are: (1) reduced seed availability in large stand‐replacing burn patches, and (2) reduced seedling establishment/survival after post‐fire drought. We tested for regional evidence consistent with these mechanisms in an extensive fire‐prone forest biome by assessing post‐fire tree seedling establishment, a key indicator of forest resilience. Location Subalpine forests, US Rocky Mountains. Methods We analysed post‐fire tree seedling establishment from 184 field plots where stand‐replacing forest fires were followed by varying post‐fire climate conditions. Generalized linear mixed models tested how establishment rates varied with post‐fire drought severity and distance to seed source (among other relevant factors) for tree species with contrasting post‐fire regeneration adaptations. Results Total post‐fire tree seedling establishment (all species combined) declined sharply with greater post‐fire drought severity and with greater distance to seed sources (i.e. the interior of burn patches). Effects varied among key species groups. For conifers that dominate present‐day subalpine forests (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa), post‐fire seedling establishment declined sharply with both factors. One exception was serotinous Pinus contorta, which did not vary with either factor. For montane species expected to move upslope under future climate change (Larix occidentalis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Populus tremuloides) and upper treeline species (Pinus albicaulis), establishment was unrelated to either factor. Greater post‐fire tree seedling establishment on cooler/wetter aspects suggested local topographic refugia during post‐fire droughts. Main conclusions If future drought and wildfire patterns manifest as expected, post‐fire tree seedling establishment of species that currently characterize subalpine forests could be substantially reduced. Compensatory increases from lower montane and upper treeline species may partially offset these reductions, but our data suggest important near‐ to mid‐term shifts in the composition and structure of high‐elevation forests under continued climate warming and increased wildfire activity.     

Intra‐annual plasticity of growth mediates drought resilience over multiple years in tropical seedling communities

Precipitation patterns are changing across the globe causing more severe and frequent drought for many forest ecosystems. Although research has focused on the resistance of tree populations and communities to these novel precipitation regimes, resilience of forests is also contingent on recovery following drought, which remains poorly understood, especially in aseasonal tropical forests. We used rainfall exclusion shelters to manipulate the interannual frequency of drought for diverse seedling communities in a tropical forest and assessed resistance, recovery and resilience of seedling growth and mortality relative to everwet conditions. We found seedlings exposed to recurrent periods of drought altered their growth rates throughout the year relative to seedlings in everwet conditions. During drought periods, seedlings grew slower than seedlings in everwet conditions (i.e., resistance phase) while compensating with faster growth after drought (i.e., recovery phase). However, the response to frequent drought was species dependent as some species grew significantly slower with frequent drought relative to everwet conditions while others grew faster with frequent drought due to overcompensating growth during the recovery phase. In contrast, mortality was unrelated to rainfall conditions and instead correlated with differences in light. Intra‐annual plasticity of growth and increased annual growth of some species led to an overall maintenance of growth rates of tropical seedling communities in response to more frequent drought. These results suggest these communities can potentially adapt to predicted climate change scenarios and that plasticity in the growth of species, and not solely changes in mortality rates among species, may contribute to shifts in community composition under drought.     

The role of climate change in the widespread mortality of holm oak in open woodlands of Southwestern Spain

Forest decline and increasing tree mortality are of global concern and the identification of the causes is necessary to develop preventive measures. Global warming is an emerging factor responsible for the increasing tree mortality in drought-prone ecosystems. In the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean holm oak open woodlands currently undergo large-scale population-level tree die-off. In this region, temperature and aridity have increased during recent decades, but the possible role of climate change in the current oak mortality has not been investigated.To assess the role of climate change in oak die-off in managed open woodlands in southwestern Spain, we analyzed climate change-related signals in century-long tree ring chronologies of dead holm oaks. We examined the high/low-frequency variability in growth and the relationship between growth and climate.Similar to other Mediterranean forests, growth was favored by precipitation from autumn of the year prior to ring formation to spring of the year of ring formation, whereas high temperatures during spring limited growth. Since the 1970s, the intensity of the high-frequency response to water availability increased simultaneously with temperature and aridity. The growth trends matched those of climatic changes. Growth suppressions occurred during droughts in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Widespread stand-level, age-independent mortality occurred since 2005 and affected trees that cannot be considered old for the species standards.The close relationship between growth and climate indicate that climate change strongly controlled the growth patterns. This suggests that harsher climatic conditions, especially increased aridity, affected the tree performance and could have played a significant role in the mortality process. Climate change may have exacerbated or predisposed trees to the impact of other factors (e.g. intense management and pathogens). These observations could suggest a similar future increase in oak mortality which may occur in more northern oak open woodlands if aridity further increases.     

A climate change‐induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad‐leaved forest in Southern China

Recent studies have suggested that tropical forests may not be resilient against climate change in the long term, primarily owing to predicted reductions in rainfall and forest productivity, increased tree mortality, and declining forest biomass carbon sinks. These changes will be caused by drought‐induced water stress and ecosystem disturbances. Several recent studies have reported that climate change has increased tree mortality in temperate and boreal forests, or both mortality and recruitment rates in tropical forests. However, no study has yet examined these changes in the subtropical forests that account for the majority of China's forested land. In this study, we describe how the monsoon evergreen broad‐leaved forest has responded to global warming and drought stress using 32 years of data from forest observation plots. Due to an imbalance in mortality and recruitment, and changes in diameter growth rates between larger and smaller trees and among different functional groups, the average DBH of trees and forest biomass have decreased. Sap flow measurements also showed that larger trees were more stressed than smaller trees by the warming and drying environment. As a result, the monsoon evergreen broad‐leaved forest community is undergoing a transition from a forest dominated by a cohort of fewer and larger individuals to a forest dominated by a cohort of more and smaller individuals, with a different species composition, suggesting that subtropical forests are threatened by their lack of resilience against long‐term climate change.     

不同林龄樟子松人工林径向生长对气候及地下水位变化的响应

全球气候变化导致森林生态系统的结构与功能发生改变,甚至出现树木死亡与林分衰退的现象,研究林分生长对气候变化尤其是干旱事件的响应有助于预测未来气候变化下生态系统的稳定性。以辽宁章古台5个林龄的樟子松人工林为研究对象,分析了树木径向生长对气候因子与地下水位的响应,结果表明：秋季气温,尤其是最低气温显著影响樟子松林的生长(44年生林分除外);低林龄樟子松林(36、39年)生长与当年夏季及生长季内的降水显著正相关,而高林龄樟子松林(52年)生长则与当年春季尤其是当年2月与5月降水显著正相关;36、39、52年生樟子松人工林年表与当年夏季的Palmer干旱指数(PDSI)显著正相关,44、58年生樟子松人工林年表则与地下水位显著正相关。应对早期干旱(即1997年)时,樟子松人工林表现为随林龄增加,其抵抗力增加而恢复力降低;在随后的两个干旱事件中,高林龄樟子松林的抵抗力不再明显高于低林龄,可能是由于地下水位显著降低影响根系吸水;受累积干旱的影响,所有林龄樟子松人工林对2007—2008干旱事件的弹性力均小于1,径向生长量明显降低。地下水位是影响不同林龄樟子松人工林生长及对干旱抵抗力的重要因子,考虑...     

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.     

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics,structure, and biodiversity in the United States

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand‐to‐biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand‐level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate‐induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought‐tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.     

Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi‐arid forests of Inner Asia

Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi‐arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi‐arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi‐arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming‐induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi‐arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree‐ring widths. These ring‐width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi‐arid sites than at semi‐humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007–2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi‐arid forests.     

Diverging growth and resilience of Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus massoniana to droughts in north-south transition zone,central China

Climate transition zone is a sensitive area of climate change and ecological transition where forests are vulnerable to climate extremes. Extreme droughts are increasing in frequency and magnitude under climate change, resulting in structure and function changes of forest ecosystems. Here, to analyze climate-growth relationships and quantify tree resilience to extreme droughts, we developed six tree-ring-width chronologies from P. tabulaeformis and P. massoniana sampling sites in Mt. Jigong region, Central China. The results indicated that all chronologies from the two species had good consistency, precipitation in current April and mean temperature in current August or mean minimum temperature from current August to October were the main limiting factors of the two tree species growth, but the responses of P. massoniana ring-width to climatic factors was more complex than that of P. tabulaeformis. The results also showed that tree growth of 1999–2005 was the lowest growing period during 1979–2018, and P. massoniana grew better than P. tabulaeformis before 2005 and vice versa after 2005. Comparing low growth years of trees, we identified to study tree growth resilience. The calculations from 1988, 1999–2005 and 2011 drought years indicated that P. tabulaeformis had more increased resilience to extreme droughts than that of P. massoniana, and the two species had stronger ecological recovery and resilience under global warming and non-extreme drought conditions in the recent 40 years. These results have implications for predicting tree resilience and identifying tree species in heterogeneous forest landscapes vulnerable to future climate change in climatic transition zone.     

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species‐level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait‐based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio‐temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change.     

Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability

The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree‐specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree‐ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm‐dry to cool‐wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low‐growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change.     

A comprehensive resilience assessment of Mexican tree species and their relationship with drought events over the last century

The resilience of forests to drought events has become a major natural resource sustainability concern, especially in response to climate change. Yet, little is known about the legacy effects of repeated droughts, and tree species ability to respond across environmental gradients. In this study, we used a tree-ring database (121 sites) to evaluate the overall resilience of tree species to drought events in the last century. We investigated how climate and geography affected the response at the species level. We evaluated temporal trends of resilience using a predictive mixed linear modeling approach. We found that pointer years (e.g., tree growth reduction) occurred during 11.3% of the 20th century, with an average decrease in tree growth of 66% compared to the previous period. The occurrence of pointer years was associated with negative values of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, 81.6%) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, 77.3%). Tree species differed in their resilience capacity, however, species inhabiting xeric conditions were less resistant but with higher recovery rates (e.g., Abies concolor, Pinus lambertiana, and Pinus jeffreyi). On average, tree species needed 2.7 years to recover from drought events, with extreme cases requiring more than a decade to reach pre-drought tree growth rates. The main abiotic factor related to resilience was precipitation, confirming that some tree species are better adapted to resist the effects of droughts. We found a temporal variation for all tree resilience indices (scaled to 100), with a decreasing resistance (−0.56 by decade) and resilience (−0.22 by decade), but with a higher recovery (+1.72 by decade) and relative resilience rate (+0.33 by decade). Our results emphasize the importance of time series of forest resilience, particularly by distinguishing the species-level response in the context of legacy of droughts, which are likely to become more frequent and intense under a changing climate.     

From canopy to seed: Loss of snow drives directional changes in forest composition

Climate change is altering the conditions for tree recruitment, growth, and survival, and impacting forest community composition. Across southeast Alaska, USA, and British Columbia, Canada, Callitropsis nootkatensis (Alaska yellow‐cedar) is experiencing extensive climate change‐induced canopy mortality due to fine‐root death during soil freezing events following warmer winters and the loss of insulating snowpack. Here, we examine the effects of ongoing, climate‐driven canopy mortality on forest community composition and identify potential shifts in stand trajectories due to the loss of a single canopy species. We sampled canopy and regenerating forest communities across the extent of C. nootkatensis decline in southeast Alaska to quantify the effects of climate, community, and stand‐level drivers on C. nootkatensis canopy mortality and regeneration as well as postdecline regenerating community composition. Across the plot network, C. nootkatensis exhibited significantly higher mortality than co‐occurring conifers across all size classes and locations. Regenerating community composition was highly variable but closely related to the severity of C. nootkatensis mortality. Callitropsis nootkatensis canopy mortality was correlated with winter temperatures and precipitation as well as local soil drainage, with regenerating community composition and C. nootkatensis regeneration abundances best explained by available seed source. In areas of high C. nootkatensis mortality, C. nootkatensis regeneration was low and replaced by Tsuga. Our study suggests that climate‐induced forest mortality is driving alternate successional pathways in forests where C. nootkatensis was once a major component. These pathways are likely to lead to long‐term shifts in forest community composition and stand dynamics. Our analysis fills a critical knowledge gap on forest ecosystem response and rearrangement following the climate‐driven decline of a single species, providing new insight into stand dynamics in a changing climate. As tree species across the globe are increasingly stressed by climate change‐induced alteration of suitable habitat, identifying the autecological factors contributing to successful regeneration, or lack thereof, will provide key insight into forest resilience and persistence on the landscape.     

特大干旱对树木死亡的影响——以美国德克萨斯州东部森林为例

美国德克萨斯州在2011年经历了史上最严重的干旱,这一事件造成约3亿多株树木死亡。在大时空尺度上(面积约9×10~6 hm~2,时间跨度近20年),基于近1800个森林样地,4次周期性调查中的约209663株树木,使用主成份分析(PCA)和广义线性混合效应模型(GLM)回归,对树木死亡的时空差异及其干旱强度与长度对树木死亡造成的中长期复杂影响进行了研究。采用树木密度、树木基面积、林地年龄、样地调查时间间隔作为树木间的竞争指标,分析了造成大旱前后周期水平和年度水平上的样地树木死亡差异的原因。综合分析了不同地理区域、树木种组、胸径大小和林地起源的4个划分标准下树木死亡对死亡率的相对贡献。结果表明：松属树木的死亡率最低(7.92%);高度低、胸径小的树木的死亡率较大,分别为29.79%和26.00%。人工林的树木死亡率(10.26%)低于天然林(13.47%);西海湾平原生态区树木的死亡率在干旱后达到最大(22.27%);西南区的树木死亡率在干旱后也达到最大(13.78%);海拔和纬度对树木死亡率影响不明显。德州东部森林整体死亡格局形成原因较为复杂,各地理区域、林地起源、树木大小和不同树种,...     

Long‐term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought

Rising temperatures are amplifying drought‐induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought‐stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long‐term average climate [i.e. 35‐year mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of California during a 4‐year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km², rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. Mortality rates increased independently with average CWD and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. These results can assist forest managers and policy‐makers in identifying the most drought‐vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas.     

Regional and local determinants of drought resilience in tropical forests

The increase in severity of droughts associated with greater mortality and reduced vegetation growth is one of the main threats to tropical forests. Drought resilience of tropical forests is affected by multiple biotic and abiotic factors varying at different scales. Identifying those factors can help understanding the resilience to ongoing and future climate change. Altitude leads to high climate variation and to different forest formations, principally moist or dry tropical forests with contrasted vegetation structure. Each tropical forest can show distinct responses to droughts. Locally, topography is also a key factor controlling biotic and abiotic factors related to drought resilience in each forest type. Here, we show that topography has key roles controlling biotic and abiotic factors in each forest type. The most important abiotic factors are soil nutrients, water availability, and microclimate. The most important biotic factors are leaf economic and hydraulic plant traits, and vegetation structure. Both dry tropical forests and ridges (steeper and drier habitats) are more sensitive to droughts than moist tropical forest and valleys (flatter and wetter habitats). The higher mortality in ridges suggests that conservative traits are not sufficient to protect plants from drought in drier steeper habitats. Our synthesis highlights that altitude and topography gradients are essential to understand mechanisms of tropical forest''s resilience to future drought events. We described important factors related to drought resilience, however, many important knowledge gaps remain. Filling those gaps will help improve future practices and studies about mitigation capacity, conservation, and restoration of tropical ecosystems.     

中国东北森林生长演替模拟模型及其在全球变化研究中的应用

 NEWCOP模型是一个新的适于模拟东北森林的种类组成动态的林窗类计算机模拟模型,它通过模拟在每一个林分斑块上的每株树木的更新、生长和死亡的全过程来反映森林群落的中长期生长和演替动态。由于 NEWCOP模型是一个由气候变量驱动的生态系统模型,故可用于评价气候变化对东北森林生长和演替的影响。在东北大兴安岭、小兴安岭和长白山地区对NEWCOP模型进行了验证和校准。沿环境梯度对NEWCOP模型的数字模拟实验表明：它能准确地再现顶极森林中树种组成及其在东北地区的垂直分布规律和水平分布规律;能准确地再现大兴安岭、小兴安岭和长白山的主要类型森林的生长和演替规律;在一定的场合NEWCOP还可反映林分的径级结构;NEWCOP模型还具有对现有森林的跟踪模拟能力。应用NEWCOP模型评估了东北森林生态系统对可能气候变化的敏感性。在GFDL 2×CO2和GISS 2×CO2气候变化情景下,东北森林的种类组成将发生很大变化,落叶阔叶树将取代目前长白山、小兴安岭的红松(Pinus koraiensis)和大兴安岭的兴安落叶松(Larix gmelinii)成为东北森林主要树种,而针叶树将在地带性森林中占很小的比重,阔叶树中蒙古栎(Quercus mongolica)将是最重要的树种,它将成为小兴安岭和大兴安岭最主要树种;东北地区适于森林生长的区域将大幅度减少,这些变化主要发生在气候变化过渡期。东北森林对不同的气候变化情景有不同响应。但是,总的趋势是未来东北森林中落叶阔叶树的比重将大幅度增加。这些结论对在全球气候变化背景下,我国东北合理地选择造林树种和制定现有森林的保护经营策略具有一定参考价值。