人为活动对舟山群岛大中型兽的影响：大中型兽受威胁状态分析

本文根据历史记载对比和皮张收购资料分析研究了舟山群岛大中型兽的受威胁状态。结果显示,舟山群岛曾有大中型兽16种,5种已绝灭,3种处于濒危状态,3种分布区缩小（一种种群数量正在下降）,3种种群保持稳定,2种种群动态不明;食肉动物的绝灭率大于食草动物;大型动物绝灭率较高;岛屿物种绝灭率高于邻近大陆。文章还比较了确定种群趋势的几种方法。     

基于Dobson算法的中国受威胁陆栖哺乳类优先保护识别与保护现状分析

优先保护区识别对受威胁物种的多样性保护具有重要价值。基于GIS空间分析、管理及预测能力,以中国受威胁陆栖哺乳动物为对象,建立受威胁物种的分布二值网格系统;利用Dobson算法对研究区3810个网格单元进行筛除,确定全国范围下受威胁物种的优先保护区域;结合中国主要的自然保护地分布数据（国家公园和自然保护区）,采用保护空缺方法分析优先保护区内受威胁动物的保护现状。研究发现,29个50km×50km的网格单元就包含了全部的受威胁陆栖哺乳物种,其中位于喜马拉雅山东南区等地的10个网格区域覆盖有80%以上的物种,其所处的10组县级行政区内被主要自然保护地保护的土地面积占25.9%,物种数占83.6%,存在一定的保护空缺。本文采用Dobson排除算法,以小面积规则网格为基本单元,顾及到了实验结果的客观性,有助于提高优先保护区的识别效率。     

陆栖哺乳动物的地理隔离研究进展

地理隔离是驱动物种分布格局形成的主要因素之一。本文回顾和总结了近几十年来地理隔离影响陆栖哺乳动物空间分布的研究成果, 从自然因素和人为因素两方面就地理隔离对物种分布的影响研究进展进行了综述。自然因素包括山脉、水体、沙漠和其他极端环境、气候变化等, 这些要素通常是在陆栖哺乳动物的缓慢演化进程中发挥作用; 人为因素侧重于因人类活动参与导致的物种分布变化, 包括景观结构变化、交通设施建设等, 在短短几百年甚至几十年内, 可以使物种分布特征发生显著变化。地理隔离对陆栖哺乳动物分布的作用是普遍而相对的, 长期存在且处于动态变化中。多种地理隔离因素之间的尺度效应不同, 哺乳动物在适应地理隔离的过程中表现出了生物个体和种群的响应过程。最后, 建议今后重点开展以下几方面的研究: (1)基于历史动物地理学与生态动物地理学, 深入研究地理隔离与动物地理边界形成的原因; (2)微观尺度下, 借助分子生物学和各种组学技术探讨地理隔离对物种遗传和适应机制的影响; (3)借鉴其他动物类群的研究经验, 加强对我国陆生哺乳动物的跟踪监测; (4)以数据驱动为导向, 将动物地理学与数据科学相结合, 以更好地分析动物分布的变迁史。     

Impacts of tourism on threatened plant taxa and communities in Australia

Summary Many Australian plant species and communities appear to be threatened by tourism. A review of management plans, recovery plans and a survey of experts found that tourism was considered to be a direct or indirect threatening process for 72 plant taxa. This is one fifth of threatened species for which threats have been identified. In addition, many more species are listed as threatened by weeds, trampling, pathogens, clearing and collecting. These are often indirect impacts of tourism, particularly in conservation reserves where tourism is the only commercial activity permitted. Tourism was also considered to be a threatening process for several plant communities. A lack of recognition of the importance of direct and indirect impacts of tourism may potentially hinder the conservation of plant species and communities both in Australia and overseas. It may also limit the effectiveness of sustainable tourism policies, particularly in conservation reserves.     

Reef coral diversity and global change

Regional anthropogenic processes such as pollution, dredging, and overfishing on coral reefs currently threaten the biodiversity of stony corals and other reef-associated organisms. Global climate change may interact with anthropogenic processes to create additional impacts on coral diversity in the near future. In order to predict these changes, it is necessary to understand the magnitude and causes of variation in scleractinian coral diversity throughout their 240 million year history. The fossil record documents long periods of speciation in corals, interrupted repeatedly by events of mass extinction. Some of these events relate clearly to changes in global climate. Diversity in reef corals has increased since their last period of extinction at the end of the Cretaceous (65 My bp ), and is still rising. During the last 8 million years, the fragmentation of the once pantropical Tethys Sea separated corals into two major biogeographical provinces. Periods of glaciation also have caused major changes in sea level and temperature. Accumulated evidence supports the theory that relative habitat area and changing patterns of oceanic circulation are mainly responsible for the two observed centres of recent coral diversity at the western tropical margins of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. At predicted rates of climate change in the near future, coral reefs are likely to survive as an ecosystem. Increases in sea level may actually benefit corals and lead to regional increases in diversity if new habitat area on back reefs is opened to increased water circulation and thus coral dispersal. Rising temperature may cause higher rates of coral mortality and even local extinction in isolated, small populations such as those on oceanic islands. The effects of increases in ultraviolet radiation (UV) are largely unknown, but likely to be negative. UV may damage planktonic coral propagules in oceanic surface waters and thus decrease rates of gene flow between coral populations. This may result in increased local extinctions, again with the strongest impact on widely separated reefs with small coral populations. The largest threats to coral diversity are regional anthropogenic impacts, which may interact with global climate change to exacerbate rates of local species extinctions. Centres of high reef coral diversity coincide with human population centres in south-east Asia and the Caribbean, and thus the greatest potential for species loss lies in these geographical areas.     

Long‐term ecological changes in marine mammals driven by recent warming in northwestern Alaska

Carbon and nitrogen isotopes analyses were performed on marine mammal bone collagen from three archaeological sites (ad 1170–1813) on Cape Espenberg (Kotzebue Sound, northwestern Alaska) as well as modern animals harvested from the same area to examine long‐term trends in foraging ecology and sea ice productivity. We observed significant and dramatic changes in ringed seal stable isotope values between the early 19th and early 21st centuries, likely due to changing sea ice productivity and reduced delivery of organic matter to the benthos driven by recent warming in the Arctic. These data highlight the importance of the archaeological record for providing a long‐term perspective on environmental variation and interpreting recent changes driven by anthropogenic processes.     

Recent spatial and temporal changes in body size of terrestrial vertebrates: probable causes and pitfalls

Geographical and temporal variations in body size are common phenomena among organisms and may evolve within a few years. We argue that body size acts much like a barometer, fluctuating in parallel with changes in the relevant key predictor(s), and that geographical and temporal changes in body size are actually manifestations of the same drivers. Frequently, the principal predictors of body size are food availability during the period of growth and ambient temperature, which often affects food availability. Food availability depends on net primary productivity that, in turn, is determined by climate and weather (mainly temperature and precipitation), and these depend mainly on solar radiation and other solar activities. When the above predictors are related to latitude the changes have often been interpreted as conforming to Bergmann's rule, but in many cases such interpretations should be viewed with caution due to the interrelationships among various environmental predictors. Recent temporal changes in body size have often been related to global warming. However, in many cases the above key predictors are not related to either latitude and/or year, and it is the task of the researcher to determine which particular environmental predictor is the one that determines food availability and, in turn, body size. The chance of discerning a significant change in body size depends to a large extent on sample size (specimens/year). The most recent changes in body size are probably phenotypic, but there are some cases in which they are partly genetic.     

On the role of small mammals in mediating climatically driven vegetation change

Biotic and abiotic processes jointly influence natural systems, yet opportunities to integrate studies of both processes are uncommon. For two decades we have excluded different subsets of the small mammal community from a series of plots near a grassland-desert ecotone in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. These studies spanned a period of historically high winter rainfall, allowing us to distinguish the effects of climate and small mammals on the composition and patch structure of vegetation. Removal of only kangaroo rats ( Dipodomys ) or of all small mammals led to increased cover of large herbaceous vegetation. The size of vegetative patches increased in all plots but this increase was three times greater where all rodents were removed. Thus, the activity of small mammals that forage under and near shrub canopies appear to significantly inhibit the expansion of existing vegetative patches, and may have a stronger influence on habitat structure than previously recognized.     

Wood mice aggressiveness and flight response to human handling: Effect of individual and environmental factors

Numerous studies have examined human disturbance repercussions on wildlife, mainly focused on the effects on behaviour, reproductive success and population dynamics. However, few studies have addressed the behaviour of prey species during and after human capture and handling and how this may correlate to individual characteristics or variation in their physical environment they inhabit. We explored wood mouse’s fleeing and aggressive behaviours in response to captures by human in their natural habitat. Eighty‐seven wood mice were caught using Sherman live traps. For each trapped individual, aggressiveness was measured as the total number of bites inflicted upon the investigator during handling time. Afterwards, each mouse was released in a two‐metre radius partially covered vegetation area that allowed visual mouse tracking by the observer and flight behaviour was registered by individual one‐zero focal sampling technique during 2 min. Both aggressiveness and fleeing behaviour were analysed regarding individual (sex, reproductive status, age) and environmental factors (habitat and season). Males, adults and breeding individuals showed heightened aggression levels. Higher aggressiveness levels were found in wood mice occupying scrubland and during summer and autumn. The flight response was exclusively explained by reproductive status, whereby breeding individuals spent more time on fast escape than nonbreeding ones. These results indicate that both individual and environmental factors seem to influence defensive behaviours in the wood mouse during and after being captured by a human. Since human disturbance shares many aspects with the predation risk, behavioural responses found to captures may likely be influenced by previous experience of individuals with predators as well as to seasonal and habitat features conditioning predators’ densities but also protection against them.     

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.     

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts,processes and potential future impacts

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance‐induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well‐defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta‐analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land‐cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground‐based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub‐)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks.     

基于参照系的中国陆地生态系统质量变化研究

提升生态系统质量(ESQ)是国家生态文明建设的重大需求和生态治理工程的最终目标。目前有关生态系统功能、健康和质量的评估以受气候主导的现实值为主,不同地区之间评价结果的可比性较低,难以满足国家生态系统管理的需求。采用基于参照系的生态系统质量评估框架,按照由中国生态地理分区和植被类型划分出的168个评估单元,以国家自然保护区核心区、中国生态系统研究网络(CERN)永久观测样地以及生产力主要受气候影响的区域等较少受人类活动干扰且生态系统结构和功能优良的生态系统作为参照系,评估了1990—2015年基于参照系的中国陆地生态系统质量(ESQ′)及其变化情况。结果表明:与参照生态系统相比,中国陆地生态系统质量指数平均值总体偏低28%。1990—2000年和2000—2015年ESQ′全国平均值分别下降1.2%和上升3.69%。ESQ′转变比较明显的区域集中分布在"陕-甘-宁"的黄土高原丘陵沟壑水土保持生态功能区、长白山地区和西南石漠化治理工程县域。在这些区域实施的退耕还林还草、防护林和石漠化治理工程等措施对提升生态系统结构、功能和稳定性发挥了重要作用,从而促使生态系统质量的改善。基于参照系的生态系...     

道路及道路施工对若尔盖高寒湿地小型兽类及鸟类生境利用的影响

为考察道路和道路施工对若尔盖高寒泥炭湿地野生动物的影响,我们在穿过若尔盖湿地的2条道路两侧,对距道路不同距离的小型兽类和鸟类分布进行了调查,其中小型兽类调查深度距离公路800m,鸟类调查深度距离公路400m。施工中的国道213线路两侧黑唇鼠兔(Ochotonacurzoniae)洞穴高密度区域离道路更远,在道路两侧400m处达到峰值,极显著高于距离道路10m处的密度;而在正常运营中的省道209线两侧,其洞穴密度在200m处达到最高值,与其他距离的洞穴密度没有显著性差异。无论在国道213线还是省道209线,道路对高原鼢鼠(Myospalaxbaileyi)洞穴分布的影响均未达到显著性水平。在正常运营的省道209线两侧,高原鼢鼠土堆密度最高区域为距离道路100m处;而施工的道路两侧高原鼢鼠土堆密度最高区域则出现在距离道路10m处,第二高峰出现在距离道路400m处。雀形目和隼形目鸟类的分布均呈现距离道路越远密度越高的趋势,但是只有距离道路400m处雀形目鸟类的密度显著高于50m与200m处;距离道路不同距离的样线中隼形目鸟类密度和物种丰富度没有显著性差异。由此可以看出,施工中的道路对黑唇鼠兔的影响区域比正常运营的道路更宽,其公路效应域达到400m,400m的调查深度对鸟类尤其是隼形目鸟类来说可能还略有不足。但是,根据此深度的调查可以确定施工中的国道213线雀形目和隼形目鸟类的公路效应域宽度大于400m。     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

Ecological correlates of range shifts of Late Pleistocene mammals

Understanding and predicting how species' distributions will shift as climate changes are central questions in ecology today. The late Quaternary of North America represents a natural experiment in which we can evaluate how species responded during the expansion and contraction of the glaciers. Here, we ask whether species' range shifts differ because of taxonomic affinity, life-history traits, body size or topographic heterogeneity and whether the species survived the megafaunal extinction. There was no difference in range shifts between victims and survivors of the megafaunal extinction. In general, the change in the size of a species' range is not well correlated with any of the ecological or life-history traits evaluated. However, there are significant relationships between some variables and the movements of the centroids of ranges. Differences in the distances shifted exist among orders, although this is probably a result of body size differences as larger bodied species show larger shifts. Although there are a few exceptions, the distance that species shifted their range was weakly correlated with life-history traits. Finally, species in more topographically heterogeneous areas show smaller shifts than species in less-diverse areas. Overall, these results indicate that when trying to predict species range shifts in the future, body size, lifespan and the topographic relief of the landscape should be taken into account.     

Review on global change status and its impacts on the Tibetan Plateau environment

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) holds fundamental ecological and environmental significances to China and Asia. The TP also lies in the core zone of the belt and road initiative. To protect the TP environment, a comprehensive screening on current ecological research status is entailed. The teased out research gap can also be utilized as guidelines for the recently launched major research programs, i.e. the second TP scientific expedition and silk and belt road research plan. The findings showed that the TP has experienced significant temperature increase at a rate of 0.2°C per decade since 1960s. The most robust warming trend was found in the northern plateau. Precipitation also exhibited an increasing trend but with high spatial heterogeneity. Changing climates have caused a series of environmental consequences, including lake area changes, glacier shrinkage, permafrost degradation and exacerbated desertification. The rising temperature is the main reason behind the glaciers shrinkage, snow melting, permafrost degradation and lake area changes on the TP and neighboring regions. The projected loss of glacial area on the plateau is estimated to be around 43% by 2070 and 75% by the end of the century. Vegetation was responsive to the changed environments, varied climates and intensified human activities by changing phenology and productivity. Future global change study should be more oriented toward integrating various research methods and tools, and synthesizing diverse subjects of water, vegetation, atmosphere and soil.     

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems

Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact‐relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude‐, frequency‐, and severity‐based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single‐model multirealization ensembles. Under a high‐emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency‐ and severity‐based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude‐based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity‐based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude‐ and frequency‐based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact‐relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well‐before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme‐metric and domain‐type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty‐first century radiative forcing.     

The future of the oceans past

Major macroevolutionary events in the history of the oceans are linked to changes in oceanographic conditions and environments on regional to global scales. Even small changes in climate and productivity, such as those that occurred after the rise of the Isthmus of Panama, caused major changes in Caribbean coastal ecosystems and mass extinctions of major taxa. In contrast, massive influxes of carbon at the end of the Palaeocene caused intense global warming, ocean acidification, mass extinction throughout the deep sea and the worldwide disappearance of coral reefs. Today, overfishing, pollution and increases in greenhouse gases are causing comparably great changes to ocean environments and ecosystems. Some of these changes are potentially reversible on very short time scales, but warming and ocean acidification will intensify before they decline even with immediate reduction in emissions. There is an urgent need for immediate and decisive conservation action. Otherwise, another great mass extinction affecting all ocean ecosystems and comparable to the upheavals of the geological past appears inevitable.