Measuring impact of protected area management interventions: current and future use of the Global Database of Protected Area Management Effectiveness

Protected areas (PAs) are at the forefront of conservation efforts, and yet despite considerable progress towards the global target of having 17% of the world''s land area within protected areas by 2020, biodiversity continues to decline. The discrepancy between increasing PA coverage and negative biodiversity trends has resulted in renewed efforts to enhance PA effectiveness. The global conservation community has conducted thousands of assessments of protected area management effectiveness (PAME), and interest in the use of these data to help measure the conservation impact of PA management interventions is high. Here, we summarize the status of PAME assessment, review the published evidence for a link between PAME assessment results and the conservation impacts of PAs, and discuss the limitations and future use of PAME data in measuring the impact of PA management interventions on conservation outcomes. We conclude that PAME data, while designed as a tool for local adaptive management, may also help to provide insights into the impact of PA management interventions from the local-to-global scale. However, the subjective and ordinal characteristics of the data present significant limitations for their application in rigorous scientific impact evaluations, a problem that should be recognized and mitigated where possible.     

Socioeconomic development shows positive links to the conservation efficiency of China's protected area network

While the protected area (PA) covers >15% of the planet's terrestrial land area and continues to expand, factors determining its effectiveness in conserving endangered species are being debated. We investigated the links between direct anthropogenic pressures, socioeconomic settings, and the coverage of vertebrate taxa by China's PA network, and indicated that high socioeconomic status and low levels of human pressure correlate with high species coverage, with threatened mammals more effectively conserved than reptiles or amphibians. Positive links between conservation outcomes and socioeconomic progress appear linked to local livelihood improvements triggering positive perceptions of local PAs—aided further by ecological compensation and tourism schemes introduced in wealthy areas and reinforced by continued positive conservation outcomes. Socioeconomic development of China's less developed regions might assist regional PA efficiency and achievement of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, while also addressing potential shortcomings from an insufficient past focus on socioeconomic impacts for biodiversity conservation.     

Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans

Several global strategies for protected area (PA) expansion have been proposed to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity''s Aichi target 11 as a means to stem biodiversity loss, as required by the Aichi target 12. However, habitat loss outside PAs will continue to affect habitats and species, and PAs may displace human activities into areas that might be even more important for species persistence. Here we measure the expected contribution of PA expansion strategies to Aichi target 12 by estimating the extent of suitable habitat available for all terrestrial mammals, with and without additional protection (the latter giving the counterfactual outcome), under different socio-economic scenarios and consequent land-use change to 2020. We found that expanding PAs to achieve representation targets for ecoregions under a Business-as-usual socio-economic scenario will result in a worse prognosis than doing nothing for more than 50% of the world''s terrestrial mammals. By contrast, targeting protection towards threatened species can increase the suitable habitat available to over 60% of terrestrial mammals. Even in the absence of additional protection, an alternative socio-economic scenario, adopting progressive changes in human consumption, leads to positive outcomes for mammals globally and to the largest improvements for wide-ranging species.     

The future representativeness of Madagascar's protected area network in the face of climate change

With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.     

Protecting important sites for biodiversity contributes to meeting global conservation targets

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of conservation efforts and now cover nearly 13% of the world's land surface, with the world's governments committed to expand this to 17%. However, as biodiversity continues to decline, the effectiveness of PAs in reducing the extinction risk of species remains largely untested. We analyzed PA coverage and trends in species' extinction risk at globally significant sites for conserving birds (10,993 Important Bird Areas, IBAs) and highly threatened vertebrates and conifers (588 Alliance for Zero Extinction sites, AZEs) (referred to collectively hereafter as 'important sites'). Species occurring in important sites with greater PA coverage experienced smaller increases in extinction risk over recent decades: the increase was half as large for bird species with>50% of the IBAs at which they occur completely covered by PAs, and a third lower for birds, mammals and amphibians restricted to protected AZEs (compared with unprotected or partially protected sites). Globally, half of the important sites for biodiversity conservation remain unprotected (49% of IBAs, 51% of AZEs). While PA coverage of important sites has increased over time, the proportion of PA area covering important sites, as opposed to less important land, has declined (by 0.45-1.14% annually since 1950 for IBAs and 0.79-1.49% annually for AZEs). Thus, while appropriately located PAs may slow the rate at which species are driven towards extinction, recent PA network expansion has under-represented important sites. We conclude that better targeted expansion of PA networks would help to improve biodiversity trends.     

Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change

Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%–18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long‐established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14–55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity.     

Protected areas in the world’s ecoregions: How well connected are they?

Protected areas (PAs) are the main instrument for biodiversity conservation, which has triggered the development of numerous indicators and assessments on their coverage, performance and efficiency. The connectivity of the PA networks at a global scale has however been much less explored; previous studies have either focused on particular regions of the world or have only considered some types of PAs.Here we present, and globally assess, ProtConn, an indicator of PA connectivity that (i) quantifies the percentage of a study region covered by protected connected lands, (ii) can be partitioned in several components depicting different categories of land (unprotected, protected or transboundary) through which movement between protected locations may occur, (iii) is easy to communicate, to compare with PA coverage and to use in the assessment of global targets for PA systems.We apply ProtConn to evaluate the connectivity of the PA networks in all terrestrial ecoregions of the world as of June 2016, considering a range of median dispersal distances (1–100 km) encompassing the dispersal abilities of the large majority of terrestrial vertebrates.We found that 9.3% of the world is covered by protected connected lands (average for all the world’s ecoregions) for a reference dispersal distance of 10 km, increasing up to 11.7% for the largest dispersal distance considered of 100 km. These percentages are considerably smaller than the global PA coverage of 14.7%, indicating that the spatial arrangement of PAs is only partially successful in ensuring connectivity of protected lands. The connectivity of PAs largely differed across ecoregions. Only about a third of the world’s ecoregions currently meet the Aichi Target of having 17% of the terrestrial realm covered by well-connected systems of PAs. Finally, our findings suggest that PAs with less strict management objectives (allowing the sustainable use of resources) may play a fundamental role in upholding the connectivity of the PA systems.Our analyses and indicator make it possible to identify where on the globe additional efforts are most needed in expanding or reinforcing the connectivity of PA systems, and can be also used to assess whether newly designated sites provide effective connectivity gains in the PA system by acting as corridors or stepping stones between other PAs. The results of the ProtConn indicator are available, together with a suite of other global PA indicators, in the Digital Observatory for Protected Areas of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.     

Conservation effectiveness of protected areas for Hong Kong butterflies declines under climate change

Protected areas are important in conserving the rapid decline of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Yet uncertainty persists whether protected areas will continue to meet conservation goals if climate change causes community or ecosystem shifts. Previous research has proven equivocal with some studies finding protected areas fail conservation objectives and others finding objectives are largely met. The effectiveness of protected area systems within tropical Asia and for insects are particularly under-studied. Using species distribution modeling of 68 butterfly species (15,346 locality records), we carried out an evaluation of the effectiveness of protected areas in Hong Kong, one of the most well-covered (40% land area) protected area systems in the Asian tropics, and projected how the ability to protect biodiversity would change under different climate change scenarios and different conservation target schemes. Under climate change, 15–37% of the modeled species in 2000 were projected to become extirpated by 2050. Under all conservation target schemes, the proportion of species unprotected increased or leveled, by up to as much as 7%. If buffer grids were considered as unprotected, the increase in these gap species was much greater, by up to as much as 22%. These results together indicate that under climate change, the effectiveness of protected areas for butterflies in Hong Kong is likely to decrease despite the territory’s relatively high proportion of protected area coverage. We also highlight here the importance of the fortification of partly protected areas in mediating biodiversity loss under the impacts of global change.     

Detecting low fragmented sites surrounding European protected areas – Implications for expansion of the Natura 2000 network

EU member states have set an ambitious goal of establishing additional protected areas (PAs) preserving 30 % of terrestrial land by 2030, specifying that additions should be of high ecological quality. A targeted selection of existing PA expansions into surroundings marginally fragmented by human infrastructure, may be an efficacious strategy to secure high ecological quality by maximizing PA area, accommodating species movement, and boosting climate change resilience. We used high-resolution data on effective mesh density, a metric measuring landscape fragmentation, in the vicinity of Natura 2000 PAs (N2k) to assess their potential for expansion. Our results show that contrary to most of Central Europe, mountainous and remote territories exhibit the lowest degree of fragmentation in N2k surroundings. Fragmentation in N2k surroundings is highly correlated with national population density, while economic wealth, measured by GDP per capita, plays a minor role. To address the long-standing dilemma of where scarce economic resources in nature conservation do the most-good, we conducted a country-level comparison between fragmentation in N2k surroundings and national expenditures on nature conservation relative to N2k area. Our results show a vast incongruity in resource availability for nature conservation among EU countries. Eastern European states, especially Romania, host underfunded N2k PAs while holding the highest potential for expanding N2k PAs into low fragmented lands. If protecting low fragmented lands is accepted as an efficacious strategy to meet EU biodiversity targets our results could be used to formulate pragmatic conservation decisions, while also ensuring high ecological quality of PA additions under climate change.     

全球陆地保护地60年增长情况分析和趋势预测

保护地建设已成为全球生物多样性保护的第一道防线。掌握其在不同尺度上的发展状况和变化趋势对保护地规划和建设有重要意义。针对已有研究在时间跨度、空间尺度以及结果对比方面的不足, 本文基于世界保护地数据库(World Database of Protected Areas, http://www.protectedplanet.net), 对全球、洲际、地区及国家尺度1950-2013年陆地保护地的增长情况进行描述和短期预测。结果发现: (1)全球保护地增长速率不断加快, 特别是在20世纪90年代以后。(2)洲际和地区保护地发展大致呈现3种增长趋势: 在美洲及大洋洲, 多数地区的保护地增长速率一直在加快; 在亚洲和欧洲, 多数地区的发展高峰出现在20世纪80、90年代; 在非洲, 多数地区的发展高峰为20世纪70年代及21世纪前10年。(3)各国保护地建设存在不平衡性, 仍有近一半国家的陆地保护地比例小于10%, 但这种差距随时间的推移有缩小的趋势。(4)绝大部分保护地增速均匀性低的国家分布在非洲。(5)虽然全球的《爱知生物多样性目标》在2020年预计不能完成, 但包括中国在内的22个国家有望如期达到目标。本文结果为未来保护地规划和建设工作的开展提供了参考依据。     

Evolutionarily significant units of the critically endangered leaf frog Pithecopus ayeaye (Anura,Phyllomedusidae) are not effectively preserved by the Brazilian protected areas network

Protected areas (PAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation, but their coverage is considered inefficient for the preservation of all species. Many species are subdivided into evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) and the effectiveness of PAs in protecting them needs to be investigated. We evaluated the usefulness of the Brazilian PAs network in protecting ESUs of the critically endangered Pithecopus ayeaye through ongoing climate change. This species occurs in a threatened mountaintop ecosystem known as campos rupestres. We used multilocus DNA sequences to delimit geographic clusters, which were further validated as ESUs with a coalescent approach. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate spatial changes in ESUs’ potential distributions, and a gap analysis was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the Brazilian PAs network to protect P. ayeaye in the face of climate changes. We tested the niche overlap between ESUs to gain insights for potential management alternatives for the species. Pithecopus ayeaye contains at least three ESUs isolated in distinct mountain regions, and one of them is not protected by any PA. There are no climatic niche differences between the units, and only 4% of the suitable potential area of the species is protected in present and future projections. The current PAs are not effective in preserving the intraspecific diversity of P. ayeaye in its present and future range distributions. The genetic structure of P. ayeaye could represent a typical pattern in campos rupestres endemics, which should be considered for evaluating its conservation status.     

Biodiversity gap analysis of the protected area system in poorly-documented Chad

Chad is amongst the richest countries in terms of biodiversity in Sahelo-Sudanian Africa with some of the last remaining populations of large mammals that once roamed West-Central Africa. Its protected area (PA) system, made up of three national parks (NP) and seven faunal reserves (FR) and introduced 40 years ago to focus on the protection of large game, has never been reviewed in terms of biodiversity coverage. This study (i) assesses whether the PA network captures Chad's current biodiversity (focusing on ecoregions and threatened mammal species), (ii) identifies gaps in the PA system and (iii) proposes recommendations to improve the representativeness of the PA system, in a country characterised by the lack of biological data. Of the seven ecoregions in Chad, three are not covered by PAs and two are represented only once and have less than 10% of their area included in the PA network. Of the 31 large mammal species used in the analysis, five occur only once in the network and five species are not represented. Analysis of the persistence of species shows that, of the nine historical PAs, all have lost at least one (and up to six) species of large mammals. The Ouadi Rimé-Ouadi Achim FR was found to have the highest irreplaceability index, with the Bahr Salamat FR and Zakouma NP second and third respectively. Zakouma NP has the highest number of large mammal populations of an internationally important size. Threatened large mammals, many depending on large-scale migration, and (migratory) waterbird populations highlight the lack of wetlands in the formal PA system. We recommend a more effective protection of these wetlands, an extension of the PA system into ecoregions not covered by current PAs and provide details on the realignment of several of the PAs that have been encroached upon and are no longer viable.     

The management effectiveness of protected areas in Kenya

Merely designating new and/or expanding existing protected areas (PAs) does not guarantee the protection of critical ecosystems and species. The management of PAs must be effective to sustain meaningful conservational outcomes. We inferred the management effectiveness of PAs in Kenya based on the representation of ranges and distribution of multiple diversity dimensions of terrestrial mammals and their association with governance and designation types. We hypothesized that different governance types underlie variable management efficacies, such that stricter-managed PAs have better habitats that attract more wildlife, translating to higher species diversity compared to less strictly-managed PAs, especially for focal species groups (large carnivores, large herbivores, and endangered species). The results showed nearly all terrestrial mammals in Kenya represented in at least one PA. However, the relative proportion of represented ranges were low, and analysis of spatial conservation prioritization showed significant expansion beyond current PAs needed to achieve a one third coverage of focal species’ ranges in a best-solution reserve system. Differences in PA governance and designation types were not systematically associated with diversity variances, and while there were more unique species in state-managed PAs than in privately-managed ones, averaged diversity coefficients were comparable between categories. Diversity variances explained by PA size and status year were low in a combined species pool but increased in focal species groups. These findings suggest that success in terrestrial mammal conservation in PAs in Kenya require clearly and formally streamlined definition, performance feedback, and collaboration terms between state-managed and privately-managed PAs.

     

Protected areas: mixed success in conserving East Africa's evergreen forests

In East Africa, human population growth and demands for natural resources cause forest loss contributing to increased carbon emissions and reduced biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs) are intended to conserve habitats and species. Variability in PA effectiveness and 'leakage' (here defined as displacement of deforestation) may lead to different trends in forest loss within, and adjacent to, existing PAs. Here, we quantify spatial variation in trends of evergreen forest coverage in East Africa between 2001 and 2009, and test for correlations with forest accessibility and environmental drivers. We investigate PA effectiveness at local, landscape and national scales, comparing rates of deforestation within park boundaries with those detected in park buffer zones and in unprotected land more generally. Background forest loss (BFL) was estimated at -9.3% (17,167 km(2)), but varied between countries (range: -0.9% to -85.7%; note: no BFL in South Sudan). We document high variability in PA effectiveness within and between PA categories. The most successful PAs were National Parks, although only 26 out of 48 parks increased or maintained their forest area (i.e. Effective parks). Forest Reserves (Ineffective parks, i.e. parks that lose forest from within boundaries: 204 out of 337), Nature Reserves (six out of 12) and Game Parks (24 out of 26) were more likely to lose forest cover. Forest loss in buffer zones around PAs exceeded background forest loss, in some areas indicating leakage driven by Effective National Parks. Human pressure, forest accessibility, protection status, distance to fires and long-term annual rainfall were highly significant drivers of forest loss in East Africa. Some of these factors can be addressed by adjusting park management. However, addressing close links between livelihoods, natural capital and poverty remains a fundamental challenge in East Africa's forest conservation efforts.     

Protected areas: A focus on Brazilian freshwater biodiversity

Brazil has a variety of aquatic ecosystems and rich freshwater biodiversity, but these components have been constantly damaged by the expansion of unsustainable activities. An array of different conservation strategies is needed, especially the creation of protected areas (PAs, hereafter). However, Brazil's PAs are biased towards terrestrial ecosystems and we argue that current PAs have limited efficacy in the protection of freshwater biodiversity. New PAs should better consider aquatic environments, covering entire basins, rivers and other freshwater habitats. We recommend ways to implement these PAs and provide guidance to avoid social impacts. Freshwater systems in Brazil provide essential goods and services but these ecosystems are being rapidly degraded and will be lost if not adequately protected.     

自然保护地生物多样性保护研究进展

建立自然保护地是保护生物多样性最为重要的措施之一。总体来看, 自然保护地生物多样性保护研究主要围绕关键生态系统以及珍稀濒危物种等保护对象的状态以及变化两个层面进行, 并重点关注自然保护地数量与面积、保护了多少重要生态系统和物种、能否有效保护生物多样性等一系列科学问题。然而, 在自然保护地生物多样性保护研究方面, 还缺少针对上述研究领域的系统性综述。为此, 本文系统梳理了自然保护地空间布局及其与生物多样性分布的关系、自然保护地生物多样性变化及其保护成效等近20年来相关领域的研究进展。自然保护地的空间布局以及与生物多样性分布的关系主要围绕自然保护地与生物多样性在某一阶段的状态开展研究, 致力于探究自然保护地“保护多少” “代表性如何” “在哪儿保护”等一系列关键科学问题。同时, 自然保护地内的生物多样性会随着气候变化、人类活动以及自身演替等发生时空动态变化, 基于自然保护地生物多样性变化分析, 各国学者在全球尺度、国家尺度和单个自然保护地进行了大量的保护成效评估研究, 并逐渐发展出了自然保护地内外配对分析方法以提升保护成效评估的精度, 进而识别出不同自然保护地的主要影响因素。在此基础上, 本文进一步对自然保护地生物多样性保护研究提出了展望, 主要包括: (1)综合考虑自然保护地生物多样性状态和变化; (2)开展多目标协同的自然保护地空间优化布局; (3)强化自然保护地主要保护对象的识别、调查与监测; (4)提升自然保护地的质量和连通性; (5)探究自然保护地管理措施与保护成效的关联机制。本文可为“2020年后全球生物多样性框架”的制定与实施特别是在自然保护地体系建设与优化方面提供参考与借鉴。     

Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 in the like-minded megadiverse countries

The group of like-minded megadiverse countries (LMMCs), which harbours a wealth of biological and cultural diversity, adopted a Carta in 2016 to accelerate progress towards achieving Aichi Biodiversity Target 11. This paper presents the progress made over the last two years and an analysis of the LMMCs’ national priority actions; approved Global Environment Facility, GEF-5 and GEF-6 protected area-related biodiversity projects; and relevant targets, goals, and actions from National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). Through their recent actions, these countries have contributed to progress in Target 11, especially with respect to marine protected area expansion, where they contributed one-sixth of the area added in national waters over the past two years. Results indicate that if implemented as planned, actions proposed by the LMMCs will increase terrestrial and marine protected area coverage by 1,106,148 km² and 192,214 km² respectively. Of these commitments, 227,230 km² in terrestrial and 144,475 km² in marine protected areas have the highest chance of being implemented. In total, 741 commitments were identified from the above sources, with implications on the qualitative elements of Target 11 (coverage of areas important for biodiversity, areas important for ecosystem services, ecological representation, connectivity, effective management, equitable management, and integration into the wider landscapes and seascapes). Of these 741 commitments, 25% showed a strong likelihood of being implemented. The country-level analysis of all commitments indicates that equitable management and integration will show the most progress, measured against identified gaps, if commitments are implemented as proposed. This progress on the qualitative elements of Target 11 in the LMMCs will also provide benefits and co-benefits for other Aichi Targets and for the requirements of other multi-lateral environmental agreements, as well as at the global level.     

What should be evaluated from a manager's perspective? Developing a salient protected area effectiveness evaluation system for managers and scientists in Spain

The System for the Integrated Assessment of Protected Areas (SIAPA) was developed as a tool to improve our knowledge on the status and trends of protected biodiversity. In order to increase SIAPA's salience and use, representatives of the main managerial and scientific protected area (PA) institutions of Spain were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. PA network managers and scientists showed a high degree of consistency in rating the most important SIAPA indicators: ‘Appropriateness of protection legislation’, ‘Degree of fulfilment of management objectives’ and ‘Effectiveness of public participation bodies’, respectively. However, PA managers perceived the ‘State of conservation’ as the most determinant factor to ascertain overall PA effectiveness whereas for scientists ‘Management’ was the most important factor. Most managers and one scientist suggested including the indicator ‘Change in extent of focal habitats’ in the SIAPA and comparing management effects inside and outside PAs. The methods and results of this study intend to streamline and standardise PA evaluation efforts in Spain and guide future developments of PA evaluation systems elsewhere.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Using the Rao's Q diversity index as an indicator of protected area effectiveness in conserving biodiversity

Developing innovative monitoring systems for biodiversity outcomes in protected areas (PAs) are important to enable effective adaptive management. Here we show how to quantitatively detect and monitor temporal and spatial patterns in environmental heterogeneity, an important indicator of ecological integrity and biodiversity patterns. We used a 28-year time series (1991–2018) generated from freely available Landsat satellite imagery and Rao's quadratic index to calculate relative heterogeneity and trends in heterogeneity for 41 PAs across South Africa. We selected PAs where mega-herbivore assemblages were similar and where management objectives were broadly aligned with South African legislation to protect biodiversity. There was a three-fold difference in heterogeneity among PAs, mainly linked to variation in topography and rainfall. Heterogeneity decreased in 12 (29%), increased in three (7%) and remained stable in 26 (64%) PA's. These trends were not explained by overall heterogeneity, PA size, or rainfall – i.e., PAs that were smaller, drier, and more homogenous were not more likely to show decreasing trends than PAs that were larger, wetter, and generally more heterogenous. Rather trends in heterogeneity are likely the result of interactions between regional process (e.g., rainfall) and local factors such fire regimes, megaherbivore densities, and park management. The framework presented here can be extended to include every PA nationally, or even globally, and the data product fully automated. This presents an opportunity for conservation management to incorporate this important biodiversity indicator in PA monitoring programs as well as other large-scale ecological monitoring initiatives.