Experimental evolution in fluctuating environments: tolerance measurements at constant temperatures incorrectly predict the ability to tolerate fluctuating temperatures

The ability to predict the consequences of fluctuating environments on species distribution and extinction often relies on determining the tolerances of species or genotypes in different constant environments (i.e. determining tolerance curves). However, very little is known about the suitability of measurements made in constant environments to predict the level of adaptation to rapidly fluctuating environments. To explore this question, we used bacterial clones adapted to constant or fluctuating temperatures and found that measurements across a range of constant temperatures did not indicate any adaptation to fluctuating temperatures. However, adaptation to fluctuating temperatures was only apparent if growth was measured during thermal fluctuation. Thus, tolerance curves based on measurements in constant environments can be misleading in predicting the ability to tolerate fast environmental fluctuations. Such complications could lead to false estimates of the genetic merits of genotypes and extinction risks of species due to climate change‐induced thermal fluctuations.     

Selection in a fluctuating environment leads to decreased genetic variation and facilitates the evolution of phenotypic plasticity

Changes in the environment are expected to induce changes in the quantitative genetic variation, which influences the ability of a population to adapt to environmental change. Furthermore, environmental changes are not constant in time, but fluctuate. Here, we investigate the effect of rapid, continuous and/or fluctuating temperature changes in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, using an evolution experiment followed by a split-brood experiment. In line with expectations, individuals responded in a plastic way and had an overall higher potential to respond to selection after a rapid change in the environment. After selection in an environment with increasing temperature, plasticity remained unchanged (or decreased) and environmental variation decreased, especially when fluctuations were added; these results were unexpected. As expected, the genetic variation decreased after fluctuating selection. Our results suggest that fluctuations in the environment have major impact on the response of a population to environmental change; in a highly variable environment with low predictability, a plastic response might not be beneficial and the response is genetically and environmentally canalized resulting in a low potential to respond to selection and low environmental sensitivity. Interestingly, we found greater variation for phenotypic plasticity after selection, suggesting that the potential for plasticity to evolve is facilitated after exposure to environmental fluctuations. Our study highlights that environmental fluctuations should be considered when investigating the response of a population to environmental change.     

Implicit frequency dependence and kin selection in fluctuating environments

Summary I consider a general model of a fluctuating environment in which the environmental state each year is drawn at random from some given distribution. Each year organisms must choose what action to perform before the environmental state for that year is known. There is no interaction with kin. In this scenario, natural selection will tend to produce organisms which maximize their geometric mean fitness. In this paper I introduce the idea of the profile of a strategy. This function quantifies how the strategy peforms for each environmental state. I show that there is a unique profile such that a strategy is optimal if and only if it has this profile. I then give a characterization of the optimal profile which generalizes previous work by others in this area. The characterization of the optimal profile has a game theoretical interpretation. Motivated by this I introduce a game in which individuals play the field in a constant environment. This game may be interpreted as a cooperative game between kin. The key result of this paper shows that a strategy maximizes geometric mean fitness in the original fluctuating environment problem if and only if it is an evolutionarily stable strategy of the deterministic environment game. It is well known that an optimal strategy in a fluctuating environment may be mixed, involving adaptive coin-flipping. Others have previously noted that this may result in some individuals sacrificing individual reproductive success for the good of the genotype. My analysis shows that one may regain the concept of individual optimization if the quantity maximized is suitably defined. Under an optimal strategy every action taken maximizes the expected number of offspring produced, where this expectation is not calculated using the true distribution of environmental states, but a distribution modified to take account of the actions of kin.     

Experimental evolution of dispersal in spatiotemporally variable microcosms

The world is an uncertain place. Individuals’ fates vary from place to place and from time to time. Natural selection in unpredictable environments should favour individuals that hedge their bets by dispersing offspring. I confirm this basic prediction using Caenorhabditis elegans in experimental microcosms. My results agree with evolutionary models and correlations found previously between habitat stability and individual dispersal propensity in nature. However, I also find that environmental variation that triggers conditional dispersal behaviour may not impose selection on baseline dispersal rates. These findings imply that an increased rate of disturbance in natural systems has the potential to cause an evolutionary response in the life history of impacted organisms.     

Eco-evolutionary maintenance of diversity in fluctuating environments

Growing evidence suggests that temporally fluctuating environments are important in maintaining variation both within and between species. To date, however, studies of genetic variation within a population have been largely conducted by evolutionary biologists (particularly population geneticists), while population and community ecologists have concentrated more on diversity at the species level. Despite considerable conceptual overlap, the commonalities and differences of these two alternative paradigms have yet to come under close scrutiny. Here, we review theoretical and empirical studies in population genetics and community ecology focusing on the ‘temporal storage effect’ and synthesise theories of diversity maintenance across different levels of biological organisation. Drawing on Chesson's coexistence theory, we explain how temporally fluctuating environments promote the maintenance of genetic variation and species diversity. We propose a further synthesis of the two disciplines by comparing models employing traditional frequency-dependent dynamics and those adopting density-dependent dynamics. We then address how temporal fluctuations promote genetic and species diversity simultaneously via rapid evolution and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Comparing and synthesising ecological and evolutionary approaches will accelerate our understanding of diversity maintenance in nature.     

Effects of parental survival on clutch size decisions in fluctuating environments

Whereas in constant environments parental survival has no effect on optimal clutch size in the absence of trade-offs between juvenile and parental survival, the situation is drastically different in fluctuating environments. We consider a model in which, with respect to reproduction, parents and offspring are equivalent at the start of the next breeding season. When generations are non-overlapping, the clutch size maximizing geometric mean surviving number of offspring is optimal among all pure clutch size strategies. We prove that, as parental survival increases relative to that of the offspring, the optimal clutch size converges to the arithmetic mean maximizing clutch size (the so-called ‘Lack clutch size’). We also give a numerical procedure for calculating optimal mixed strategies and we show that, as environmental variance increases and/or parental survival decreases, mixed rather than pure strategies become optimal. Furthermore, we explain how to estimate fitness from empirical data under the assumptions of our model. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The evolution of genetic canalization under fluctuating selection

Abstract.— If the direction of selection changes from generation to generation, the ability to respond to selection is maladaptive: the response to selection in one generation leads to reduced fitness in the next. Because the response is determined by the amount of genetic variance expressed at the phenotypic level, rapidly fluctuating selection should favor modifier genes that reduce the phenotypic effect of alleles segregating at structural loci underlying the trait. Such reduction in phenotypic expression of genetic variation has been named "genetic canalization." I support this argument with a series of two- and multilocus models with alternating linear selection and Gaussian selection with fluctuating optimum. A canalizing modifier gene affects the fitness of its carriers in three ways: (1) it reduces the phenotypic consequences of genetic response to previous selection; (2) it reduces the genetic response to selection, which is manifested as linkage disequilibrium between the modifier and structural loci; and (3) it reduces the phenotypic variance. The first two effects reduce fitness under directional selection sustained for several generations, but improve fitness when the direction of selection has just been reversed. The net effect tends to favor a canalizing modifier under rapidly fluctuating selection regimes (period of eight generations or less). The third effect improves fitness of the modifier allele if the fitness function is convex and reduces it if the function is concave. Under fluctuating Gaussian selection, the population is more likely to experience the concave portion of the fitness function when selection is stronger. Therefore, only weak to moderately strong fluctuating Gaussian selection favors genetic canalization. This paper considerably broadens the conditions that favor genetic canalization, which so far has only been postulated to evolve under long-term stabilizing selection.     

Extent of adaptation is not limited by unpredictability of the environment in laboratory populations of Escherichia coli

Environmental variability is on the rise in different parts of the earth, and the survival of many species depends on how well they cope with these fluctuations. Our current understanding of how organisms adapt to unpredictably fluctuating environments is almost entirely based on studies that investigate fluctuations among different values of a single environmental stressor such as temperature or pH . How would unpredictability affect adaptation when the environment fluctuates between qualitatively very different kinds of stresses? To answer this question, we subjected laboratory populations of Escherichia coli to selection over ~ 260 generations. The populations faced predictable and unpredictable environmental fluctuations across qualitatively different selection environments, namely, salt and acidic pH . We show that predictability of environmental fluctuations does not play a role in determining the extent of adaptation, although the extent of ancestral adaptation to the chosen selection environments is of key importance.     

Effective size of density‐dependent populations in fluctuating environments

Reliable estimates of effective population size are of central importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. For populations that fluctuate in size, harmonic mean population size is commonly used as a proxy for (multi‐) generational effective size. This assumes no effects of density dependence on the ratio between effective and actual population size, which limits its potential application. Here, we introduce density dependence on vital rates in a demographic model of variance effective size. We derive an expression for the ratio in a density‐regulated population in a fluctuating environment. We show by simulations that yearly genetic drift is accurately predicted by our model, and not proportional to as assumed by the harmonic mean model, where N is the total population size of mature individuals. We find a negative relationship between and N. For a given N, the ratio depends on variance in reproductive success and the degree of resource limitation acting on the population growth rate. Finally, our model indicate that environmental stochasticity may affect not only through fluctuations in N, but also for a given N at a given time. Our results show that estimates of effective population size must include effects of density dependence and environmental stochasticity.     

How differing modes of non‐genetic inheritance affect population viability in fluctuating environments

Different modes of non‐genetic inheritance are expected to affect population persistence in fluctuating environments. We here analyse Caenorhabditis elegans density‐independent per capita growth rate time series on 36 populations experiencing six controlled sequences of challenging oxygen level fluctuations across 60 generations, and parameterise competing models of non‐genetic inheritance in order to explain observed dynamics. Our analysis shows that phenotypic plasticity and anticipatory maternal effects are sufficient to explain growth rate dynamics, but that a carryover model where ‘epigenetic’ memory is imperfectly transmitted and might be reset at each generation is a better fit to the data. We further find that this epigenetic memory is asymmetric since it is kept for longer when populations are exposed to the more challenging environment. Our analysis suggests that population persistence in fluctuating environments depends on the non‐genetic inheritance of phenotypes whose expression is regulated across multiple generations.     

Evolution in heterogeneous environments and the potential of maintenance of genetic variation in traits of adaptive significance

The maintenance of genetic variation in traits of adaptive significance has been a major dilemma of evolutionary biology. Considering the pattern of increased genetic variation associated with environmental clines and heterogeneous environments, selection in heterogeneous environments has been proposed to facilitate the maintenance of genetic variation. Some models examining whether genetic variation can be maintained, in heterogeneous environments are reviewed. Genetic mechanisms that constrain evolution in quantitative genetic traits indicate that genetic variation can be maintained but when is not clear. Furthermore, no comprehensive models have been developed, likely due to the genetic and environmental complexity of this issue. Therefore, I have suggested two empirical approaches to provide insight for future theoretical and empirical research. Traditional path analysis has been a very powerful approach for understanding phenotypic selection. However, it requires substantial information on the biology of the study system to construct a causal model and alternatives. Exploratory path analysis is a data driven approach that uses the statistical relationships in the data to construct a set of models. For example, it can be used for understanding phenotypic selection in different environments, where there is no prior information to develop path models in the different environments. Data from Brassica rapa grown in different nutrients indicated that selection changed in the different environments. Experimental evolutionary studies will provide direct tests as to when genetic variation is maintained.     

Species packing in eco‐evolutionary models of seasonally fluctuating environments

As ecology and evolution become ever more entwined, many areas of ecological theory are being re‐examined. Eco‐evolutionary analyses of classic coexistence mechanisms are yielding new insights into the structure and stability of communities. We examine fluctuation‐dependent coexistence models, identifying communities that are both ecologically and evolutionarily stable. Members of these communities possess distinct environmental preferences, revealing widespread patterns of limiting similarity. This regularity leads to consistent changes in the structure of communities across fluctuation regimes. However, at high amplitudes, subtle differences in the form of fluctuations dramatically affect the collapse of communities. We also show that identical fluctuations can support multiple evolutionarily stable communities – a novel example of alternative stable states within eco‐evolutionary systems. Consequently, the configuration of communities will depend on historical contingencies, including details of the adaptive process. Integrating evolution into the study of coexistence offers new insights, while enriching our understanding of ecology.     

On the experimental evolution of specialization and diversity in heterogeneous environments

Environmental variance can be decomposed into two components: the contrast among patches in the optimal phenotype and the variance in productivity among patches. Both components can influence the outcome of selection in heterogeneous environments. In general genetic diversity within a population should increase as the contrast among patches increases. As the variance in productivity increases, on the other hand, individual niche breadth should decrease since the response to selection becomes dominated by adaptation to the most productive patch. We tested this interpretation of diversity in heterogeneous environments by selecting the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens over several hundred generations in pair-wise mixtures of four carbon substrates. We then assessed the response to selection in the mixtures in terms of performance on each component substrate. The results provide general support for this interpretation of the environmental variance and suggest further that competition among genotypes promotes diversification in heterogeneous environments.     

The influence of fluctuating population densities on evolutionary dynamics

The causes and consequences of fluctuating population densities are an important topic in ecological literature. Yet, the effects of such fluctuations on maintenance of variation in spatially structured populations have received little analytic treatment. We analyze what happens when two habitats coupled by migration not only differ in their trade‐offs in selection but also in their demographic stability—and show that equilibrium allele frequencies can change significantly due to ecological feedback arising from locally fluctuating population sizes. When an ecological niche exhibits such fluctuations, these drive an asymmetry in the relative impact of gene flow, and therefore, the equilibrium frequency of the locally adapted type decreases. Our results extend the classic conditions on maintenance of diversity under selection and migration by including the effect of fluctuating population densities. We find simple analytic conditions in terms of the strength of selection, immigration, and the extent of fluctuations between generations in a continent‐island model. Although weak fluctuations hardly affect coexistence, strong recurrent fluctuations lead to extinction of the type better adapted to the fluctuating niche—even if the invader is locally maladapted. There is a disadvantage to specialization to an unstable habitat, as it makes the population vulnerable to swamping from more stable habitats.     

Experimental evolution of slowed cognitive aging in Drosophila melanogaster

Reproductive output and cognitive performance decline in parallel during aging, but it is unknown whether this reflects a shared genetic architecture or merely the declining force of natural selection acting independently on both traits. We used experimental evolution in Drosophila melanogaster to test for the presence of genetic variation for slowed cognitive aging, and assess its independence from that responsible for other traits’ decline with age. Replicate experimental populations experienced either joint selection on learning and reproduction at old age (Old + Learning), selection on late‐life reproduction alone (Old), or a standard two‐week culture regime (Young). Within 20 generations, the Old + Learning populations evolved a slower decline in learning with age than both the Old and Young populations, revealing genetic variation for cognitive aging. We found little evidence for a genetic correlation between cognitive and demographic aging: although the Old + Learning populations tended to show higher late‐life fecundity than Old populations, they did not live longer. Likewise, selection for late reproduction alone did not result in improved late‐life learning. Our results demonstrate that Drosophila harbor genetic variation for cognitive aging that is largely independent from genetic variation for demographic aging and suggest that these two aspects of aging may not necessarily follow the same trajectories.     

Adaptation to fluctuating environments in a selection experiment with Drosophila melanogaster

A fundamental question in life‐history evolution is how organisms cope with fluctuating environments, including variation between stressful and benign conditions. For short‐lived organisms, environments commonly vary between generations. Using a novel experimental design, we exposed wild‐derived Drosophila melanogaster to three different selection regimes: one where generations alternated between starvation and benign conditions, and starvation was always preceded by early exposure to cold; another where starvation and benign conditions alternated in the same way, but cold shock sometimes preceded starvation and sometimes benign conditions; and a third where conditions were always benign. Using six replicate populations per selection regime, we found that selected flies increased their starvation resistance, most strongly for the regime where cold and starvation were reliably combined, and this occurred without decreased fecundity or extended developmental time. The selected flies became stress resistant, displayed a pronounced increase in early life food intake and resource storage. In contrast to previous experiments selecting for increased starvation resistance in D. melanogaster, we did not find increased storage of lipids as the main response, but instead that, in particular for females, storage of carbohydrates was more pronounced. We argue that faster mobilization of carbohydrates is advantageous in fluctuating environments and conclude that the phenotype that evolved in our experiment corresponds to a compromise between the requirements of stressful and benign environments.     

Escherichia coli populations in unpredictably fluctuating environments evolve to face novel stresses through enhanced efflux activity

There is considerable understanding about how laboratory populations respond to predictable (constant or deteriorating environment) selection for single environmental variables such as temperature or pH. However, such insights may not apply when selection environments comprise multiple variables that fluctuate unpredictably, as is common in nature. To address this issue, we grew replicate laboratory populations of Escherichia coli in nutrient broth whose pH and concentrations of salt (NaCl) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) were randomly changed daily. After ~170 generations, the fitness of the selected populations had not increased in any of the three selection environments. However, these selected populations had significantly greater fitness in four novel environments which have no known fitness‐correlation with tolerance to pH, NaCl or H₂O₂. Interestingly, contrary to expectations, hypermutators did not evolve. Instead, the selected populations evolved an increased ability for energy‐dependent efflux activity that might enable them to throw out toxins, including antibiotics, from the cell at a faster rate. This provides an alternate mechanism for how evolvability can evolve in bacteria and potentially lead to broad‐spectrum antibiotic resistance, even in the absence of prior antibiotic exposure. Given that environmental variability is increasing in nature, this might have serious consequences for public health.     

Selection in a fluctuating environment and the evolution of sexual dimorphism in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus

Temperature changes in the environment, which realistically include environmental fluctuations, can create both plastic and evolutionary responses of traits. Sexes might differ in either or both of these responses for homologous traits, which in turn has consequences for sexual dimorphism and its evolution. Here, we investigate both immediate changes in and the evolution of sexual dimorphism in response to a changing environment (with and without fluctuations) using the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus. We investigate sex differences in plasticity and also the genetic architecture of body mass and developmental time dimorphism to test two existing hypotheses on sex differences in plasticity (adaptive canalization hypothesis and condition dependence hypothesis). We found a decreased sexual size dimorphism in higher temperature and that females responded more plastically than males, supporting the condition dependence hypothesis. However, selection in a fluctuating environment altered sex-specific patterns of genetic and environmental variation, indicating support for the adaptive canalization hypothesis. Genetic correlations between sexes (r(MF) ) were affected by fluctuating selection, suggesting facilitated independent evolution of the sexes. Thus, the selective past of a population is highly important for the understanding of the evolutionary dynamics of sexual dimorphism.     

Host-parasite coevolutionary arms races give way to fluctuating selection

Host-parasite coevolution is a key driver of biological diversity and parasite virulence, but its effects depend on the nature of coevolutionary dynamics over time. We used phenotypic data from coevolving populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 and parasitic phage SBW25Φ2, and genetic data from the phage tail fibre gene (implicated in infectivity evolution) to show that arms race dynamics, typical of short-term studies, decelerate over time. We attribute this effect to increasing costs of generalism for phages and bacteria with increasing infectivity and resistance. By contrast, fluctuating selection on individual host and parasite genotypes was maintained over time, becoming increasingly important for the phenotypic properties of parasite and host populations. Given that costs of generalism are reported for many other systems, arms races may generally give way to fluctuating selection in antagonistically coevolving populations.