An empirical evaluation of the African elephant as a focal species for connectivity planning in East Africa

Aim Large, charismatic and wide‐ranging animals are often employed as focal species for prioritizing landscape linkages in threatened ecosystems (i.e. ‘connectivity conservation’), but there have been few efforts to assess empirically whether focal species co‐occur with other species of conservation interest within potential linkages. We evaluated whether the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), a world‐recognized flagship species, would serve as an appropriate focal species for other large mammals in a potential linkage between two major protected area complexes. Location A 15,400 km² area between the Ruaha and Selous ecosystems in central Tanzania, East Africa. Methods We used walking transects to assess habitat, human activity and co‐occurrence of elephants and 48 other large mammal species (> 1 kg) at 63 sites using animal sign and direct sightings. We repeated a subset of transects to estimate species detectability using occupancy modelling. We used logistic regression and AIC model selection to characterize patterns of elephant occurrence and assessed correlation of elephant presence with richness of large mammals and subgroups. We considered other possible focal species, compared habitat‐based linear regression models of large mammal richness and used circuit theory to examine potential connectivity spatially. Results Elephants were detected in many locations across the potential linkage. Elephant presence was highly positively correlated with the richness of large mammals, as well as ungulates, carnivores, large carnivores and species > 45 kg in body mass (‘megafauna’). Outside of protected areas, both mammal richness and elephant presence were negatively correlated with human population density and distance from water. Only one other potential focal species was more strongly correlated with species richness than elephants, but detectability was highest for elephants. Main conclusions Although African elephants have dispersal abilities that exceed most other terrestrial mammals, conserving elephant movement corridors may effectively preserve habitat and potential landscape linkages for other large mammal species among Tanzanian reserves.     

Phylogenetic analysis of conservation priorities for aquatic mammals and their terrestrial relatives, with a comparison of methods

Background

Habitat loss and overexploitation are among the primary factors threatening populations of many mammal species. Recently, aquatic mammals have been highlighted as particularly vulnerable. Here we test (1) if aquatic mammals emerge as more phylogenetically urgent conservation priorities than their terrestrial relatives, and (2) if high priority species are receiving sufficient conservation effort. We also compare results among some phylogenetic conservation methods.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A phylogenetic analysis of conservation priorities for all 620 species of Cetartiodactyla and Carnivora, including most aquatic mammals. Conservation priority ranking of aquatic versus terrestrial species is approximately proportional to their diversity. However, nearly all obligated freshwater cetartiodactylans are among the top conservation priority species. Further, ∼74% and 40% of fully aquatic cetartiodactylans and carnivores, respectively, are either threatened or data deficient, more so than their terrestrial relatives. Strikingly, only 3% of all ‘high priority’ species are thought to be stable. An overwhelming 97% of these species thus either show decreasing population trends (87%) or are insufficiently known (10%). Furthermore, a disproportional number of highly evolutionarily distinct species are experiencing population decline, thus, such species should be closely monitored even if not currently threatened. Comparison among methods reveals that exact species ranking differs considerably among methods, nevertheless, most top priority species consistently rank high under any method. While we here favor one approach, we also suggest that a consensus approach may be useful when methods disagree.

Conclusions/Significance

These results reinforce prior findings, suggesting there is an urgent need to gather basic conservation data for aquatic mammals, and special conservation focus is needed on those confined to freshwater. That evolutionarily distinct—and thus ‘biodiverse’—species are faring relatively poorly is alarming and requires further study. Our results offer a detailed guide to phylogeny-based conservation prioritization for these two orders.     

Does Litter Size Variation Affect Models of Terrestrial Carnivore Extinction Risk and Management?

Background

Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species – the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used.

Conclusion/Significance

These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.     

Managing sun bears in a changing tropical landscape

Aim

Across the tropics, large‐bodied mammal species are threatened by rapid and widespread forest habitat conversion by either commercial logging or agricultural expansion. How such species use these habitats is an important area of research for guiding their future management. The tropical forest‐dwelling sun bear, Helarctos malayanus, is the least known of the eight bear species. Consequently, the IUCN/SSC Bear Specialist Group ranks research on this species as a top priority. This study aims to investigate landscape variables that influence sun bear habitat use in forests under varying levels of degradation and protection.

Location

A 20,998 km² Sumatra forest landscape covering Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Batang Hari Protection Forest (BHPF) and neighbouring logging and agricultural concessions.

Methods

An occupancy‐based sampling technique using detection/non‐detection data with 10 landscape covariates was applied in six study areas that operated a total of 125 camera traps. The potential differences between habitat use (ψ) of sun bears were first modelled with broad‐scale covariates of study area, land‐use types and forest type. Sun bear habitat use was then investigated with the finer‐scale landscape features associated within these areas.

Results

From 10,935 trap nights, sun bears were recorded at altitudes ranging from 365 to 1791 m. At a broad‐scale, habitat use increased with protection status, being highest in KSNP (0.688 ± 0.092, ± SE) and BHPF (0.621 ± 0.110) compared to production (0.418 ± 0.121) and convertible (0.286 ± 0.122) forests. Within these areas, sun bears showed a preference for forest that was further from public roads and villages and at a lower elevation.

Main conclusions

The habitat suitability model identified several high‐quality habitat patches outside of the priority conservation areas for immediate protection. Consequently, conservation management strategies should emphasize the importance of high conservation value forests and prohibit further conversion of threatened lowland forests.

     

The potential for large carnivores to act as biodiversity surrogates in southern Africa

Biodiversity in southern Africa is globally extraordinary but threatened by human activities. Although there are considerable biodiversity conservation initiatives within the region, no one has yet assessed the potential use of large carnivores in such actions. Surrogate approaches have often been suggested as one such way of capitalizing on large carnivores. Here we review the suitability of the large carnivore guild (i.e., brown hyaena Hyaena hyaena, spotted hyaena Crocuta crocutta, cheetah Acinonyx jubatus, leopard Panthera pardus, lion Panthea leo and African wild dog Lycaon pictus) to act as surrogate species for biodiversity conservation in southern Africa. We suggest that the guild must be complete for the large carnivores to fully provide their role as ecological keystones. The potential for large carnivores to act as umbrella and indicator species seems limited. However, self-sustaining populations of large carnivores may be useful indicators of unfragmented landscapes. Moreover, diversity within the large carnivore guild may reflect overall biodiversity. Although the global appeal of the large African carnivores makes them important international flagships, we stress that international conservation funding must be linked to local communities for them to be important also locally. In summary, we suggest that the flagship value of these large carnivores should be used to promote biodiversity conservation in the region, and that the suggested relationship between large carnivore diversity and overall biodiversity is empirically tested. Finally we suggest that direct conservation activities should focus on enhancing the keystone values of large carnivores through complete guild conservation and restoration.     

Distribution,population density and conservation of the critically endangered brown spider monkey (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ateles hybridus</Emphasis>) and other primates of the inter-Andean forests of Colombia

The inter-Andean tropical rainforests and dry forests of the Magdalena river basin (Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena biodiversity hotspot) in northern Colombia have undergone significant forest loss and degradation in recent decades. Six primate species inhabit this region, five of which are currently threatened with extinction and one of which—the brown spider monkey, Ateles hybridus—is considered critically endangered. Accurate and recent information on the distribution and conservation status of these threatened primate populations is scarce or nonexistent, even though such data are needed to implement successful conservation actions and management plans. Between 2006 and 2016, we evaluated the status and distribution of primates across inter-Andean lowland forests in northern Colombia. We visited 30 sites to evaluate the presence/absence of brown spider monkeys and other primate taxa in the region. We also carried out surveys at 10 of these sites to obtain estimates of primate population densities and demographic information from forests with different levels of anthropogenic disturbance. Novel data on primate presence/absence were obtained for 27 sites, and 136 records were collected in total. Only 33% of the sites visited were large forest fragments (>?500 Ha). This study confirms that at least six primate species are still present in the Rio Magdalena region, which represents the highest platyrrhine diversity west of the Andes. This study also confirms the persistence of a wild population of Colombian woolly monkeys (Lagothrix lagotricha lugens) in the Serranía de San Lucas. Assigning formal protected status to this region is an urgent priority for the conservation of primates in the Rio Magdalena region.     

Studying Large Mammals With Imperfect Detection: Status and Habitat Preferences of Wild Cattle and Large Carnivores in Eastern Cambodia

Studying large mammal species in tropical forests is a conservation challenge with species’ behavior and ecology often increasing the probability of non‐detection during surveys. Consequently, knowledge of the distribution, status, and natural history of many large mammal species in Southeast Asia is limited. I developed occupancy models from camera‐trapping data, thereby accounting for imperfect detection at sampling sites, to clarify the status and habitat requirements of four globally threatened or near threatened large mammals (banteng Bos javanicus, gaur Bos gaurus, dhole Cuon alpinus, and leopard Panthera pardus) in Mondulkiri Protected Forest, eastern Cambodia. Camera traps were operational for >3500 trap nights with 202 photographic encounters of the four study species. Model averaged occupancy estimates were between 5 percent (leopard) and 140 percent (gaur) higher than naive estimates (i.e., proportion of camera‐trap sites species recorded from) thus highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability during conservation surveys. I recommend the use of an occupancy framework when using camera‐trap data to study the status, ecology, and habitat preferences of poorly known and elusive species. The results highlight the importance of mixed deciduous and semi‐evergreen forest for wild cattle in eastern Cambodia and I emphasize that these habitats must be considered in conservation planning across the Lower Mekong Dry Forest Ecoregion.     

The conservation significance of the proposed Mbaéré-Bodingué national park,Central African Republic,with special emphasis on its primate community

The proposed Mbaéré-Bodingué National Park (872km²) is located in the southwestern part of the Central African Republic and consists of terra firma rain forests and seasonally flooded forests. We assessed the conservation significance of this site using data on wildlife and habitat conditions collected during a comprehensive primate survey. Scores were attributed to a system of variables and sub-variables to assess the conservation value of the proposed park at the national level. We identified a total of 10 diurnal primate species (eight monkeys, two apes) and flooded forests were considered as a key habitat for primates as they hold a greater number of species than terra firma forests. We recorded the presence of 12 mammal species listed under the 2000 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, including four classified as Endangered (two Primates, one Proboscidae and one Insectivora). We found that the conservation value of the proposed park ranked second out of the 15 existing protected areas of the country. Primate abundance was found to be generally higher than in the nearby Dzanga-Ndoki National Park (the sole other park located in the same vegetation unit), in particular for the species occurring in flooded forests. This highlights the fact that the proposed Mbaéré-Bodingué National Park is an important area for the conservation of species associated with flooded forests, a habitat which is currently under-represented in the national protected area system. Poaching pressure was identified as the main current threat to the integrity of the proposed park.     

Biases,gaps, and opportunities in mammalian extinction risk research

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优先保护区识别对受威胁物种的多样性保护具有重要价值。基于GIS空间分析、管理及预测能力,以中国受威胁陆栖哺乳动物为对象,建立受威胁物种的分布二值网格系统;利用Dobson算法对研究区3810个网格单元进行筛除,确定全国范围下受威胁物种的优先保护区域;结合中国主要的自然保护地分布数据（国家公园和自然保护区）,采用保护空缺方法分析优先保护区内受威胁动物的保护现状。研究发现,29个50km×50km的网格单元就包含了全部的受威胁陆栖哺乳物种,其中位于喜马拉雅山东南区等地的10个网格区域覆盖有80%以上的物种,其所处的10组县级行政区内被主要自然保护地保护的土地面积占25.9%,物种数占83.6%,存在一定的保护空缺。本文采用Dobson排除算法,以小面积规则网格为基本单元,顾及到了实验结果的客观性,有助于提高优先保护区的识别效率。     

Tickled to Death: Analysing Public Perceptions of ‘Cute’ Videos of Threatened Species (Slow Lorises – Nycticebus spp.) on Web 2.0 Sites

Background

The internet is gaining importance in global wildlife trade and changing perceptions of threatened species. There is little data available to examine the impact that popular Web 2.0 sites play on public perceptions of threatened species. YouTube videos portraying wildlife allow us to quantify these perceptions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Focussing on a group of threatened and globally protected primates, slow lorises, we quantify public attitudes towards wildlife conservation by analysing 12,411 comments and associated data posted on a viral YouTube video ‘tickling slow loris’ over a 33-months period. In the initial months a quarter of commentators indicated wanting a loris as a pet, but as facts about their conservation and ecology became more prevalent this dropped significantly. Endorsements, where people were directed to the site by celebrities, resulted mostly in numerous neutral responses with few links to conservation or awareness. Two conservation-related events, linked to Wikipedia and the airing of a television documentary, led to an increase in awareness, and ultimately to the removal of the analysed video.

Conclusions/Significance

Slow loris videos that have gone viral have introduced these primates to a large cross-section of society that would not normally come into contact with them. Analyses of webometric data posted on the internet allow us quickly to gauge societal sentiments. We showed a clear temporal change in some views expressed but without an apparent increase in knowledge about the conservation plight of the species, or the illegal nature of slow loris trade. Celebrity endorsement of videos showing protected wildlife increases visits to such sites, but does not educate about conservation issues. The strong desire of commentators to express their want for one as a pet demonstrates the need for Web 2.0 sites to provide a mechanism via which illegal animal material can be identified and policed.     

Seven forms of rarity in mammals

Conservation biologists have identified threats to the survival of about a quarter of the mammalian species; to identify patterns of rarity and commonness of mammals, we studied a global sample of 1212 species (about 28% of the mammals) using the ‘7 forms of rarity’ model (in which species are roughly divided into above and below the median for local population density, species’ range area, and number of habitat types). From a niche‐based hypothesis of abundance and distribution, we predicted that mammals would exhibit a bimodal pattern of rarity and commonness, with an overabundance of species in the relatively rarest and most common categories; and just such a significant bimodal pattern emerged, with over a quarter of the species classified as exceedingly rare and a further quarter very common, supporting the niche‐based hypothesis. Orders that include large mammals, including perissodactyls, primates, diprotodonts, and carnivores, exhibited significantly high proportions of relatively rare species; and tropical zoogeographic regions, especially Indomalaya, had relatively high proportions of species in the rarest category. Significant biases in the available data on mammals included under‐sampling of small species like rodents and bats, and a relative paucity of data on zoogeographic regions outside of North America and Australia. Mammalian species listed as of conservation concern by the IUCN occurred in all cells of the model, indicating that even relatively common species can be listed as threatened under some conditions; but we also found that sixty‐three species were relatively rare in all three criteria of the 7‐forms model but were not listed as threatened, indicating potential candidates for further study. Mammals may be a group of animals where rarity or commonness is a natural aspect of species biology, both confirming and perhaps partly explaining the large proportion of mammals assigned threatened status.     

Diversity of medium and large mammals in the Loka Abaya National Park,southern Ethiopia

We evaluated the richness, diversity, and composition of the medium and large mammal community in the Loka Abaya National Park (LANP), southern Ethiopia, and how these parameters differ among four habitat types: wooded grassland, riverine forest, hilly scrubland and wetland, and between seasons. We recorded a total of 2,573 individual animals of 28 medium and large mammal species in the park. This included three globally threatened species: the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus), the vulnerable Leopard (Panthera pardus), and Hippopotamus (Hippopothamus amphibius). Season had little effect on species richness, diversity, and composition both across and within habitat types. However, species richness across seasons was significantly different among the four habitat types, in the declining order of the following: wooded grassland > riverine forest > hilly scrubland > wetland. The strongest similarity in species composition, both across and within seasons, was found between wooded grassland and riverine forest. In terms of relative abundance, mammal assemblage of the wooded grassland and wetland habitats had more evenly distributed number of species with different relative abundance categories. Overall, Anubis Baboon (Papio anubis), Grivet Monkey (Chlorocebus aethiops), and Greater Kudu (Tragelephus strepsiceros) were the three most abundant species across habitat types. In conclusion, findings of our study reveal that LANP plays an important role in Ethiopia's mammal conservation. Our findings will serve as baseline information for managers of the park to make effective conservation decisions and as a baseline for researchers wishing to conduct related ecological studies.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Geological substrates shape tree species and trait distributions in african moist forests

Background

Understanding the factors that shape the distribution of tropical tree species at large scales is a central issue in ecology, conservation and forest management. The aims of this study were to (i) assess the importance of environmental factors relative to historical factors for tree species distributions in the semi-evergreen forests of the northern Congo basin; and to (ii) identify potential mechanisms explaining distribution patterns through a trait-based approach.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed the distribution patterns of 31 common tree species in an area of more than 700,000 km² spanning the borders of Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and the Republic of Congo using forest inventory data from 56,445 0.5-ha plots. Spatial variation of environmental (climate, topography and geology) and historical factors (human disturbance) were quantified from maps and satellite records. Four key functional traits (leaf phenology, shade tolerance, wood density, and maximum growth rate) were extracted from the literature. The geological substrate was of major importance for the distribution of the focal species, while climate and past human disturbances had a significant but lesser impact. Species distribution patterns were significantly related to functional traits. Species associated with sandy soils typical of sandstone and alluvium were characterized by slow growth rates, shade tolerance, evergreen leaves, and high wood density, traits allowing persistence on resource-poor soils. In contrast, fast-growing pioneer species rarely occurred on sandy soils, except for Lophira alata.

Conclusions/Significance

The results indicate strong environmental filtering due to differential soil resource availability across geological substrates. Additionally, long-term human disturbances in resource-rich areas may have accentuated the observed patterns of species and trait distributions. Trait differences across geological substrates imply pronounced differences in population and ecosystem processes, and call for different conservation and management strategies.     

Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation

Background

Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions.

Conclusions/Significance

We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.     

Modelling the Species Distribution of Flat-Headed Cats (Prionailurus planiceps), an Endangered South-East Asian Small Felid

Background

The flat-headed cat (Prionailurus planiceps) is one of the world''s least known, highly threatened felids with a distribution restricted to tropical lowland rainforests in Peninsular Thailand/Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra. Throughout its geographic range large-scale anthropogenic transformation processes, including the pollution of fresh-water river systems and landscape fragmentation, raise concerns regarding its conservation status. Despite an increasing number of camera-trapping field surveys for carnivores in South-East Asia during the past two decades, few of these studies recorded the flat-headed cat.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study, we designed a predictive species distribution model using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to reassess the potential current distribution and conservation status of the flat-headed cat. Eighty-eight independent species occurrence records were gathered from field surveys, literature records, and museum collections. These current and historical records were analysed in relation to bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), altitude (SRTM) and minimum distance to larger water resources (Digital Chart of the World). Distance to water was identified as the key predictor for the occurrence of flat-headed cats (>50% explanation). In addition, we used different land cover maps (GLC2000, GlobCover and SarVision LLC for Borneo), information on protected areas and regional human population density data to extract suitable habitats from the potential distribution predicted by the MaxEnt model. Between 54% and 68% of suitable habitat has already been converted to unsuitable land cover types (e.g. croplands, plantations), and only between 10% and 20% of suitable land cover is categorised as fully protected according to the IUCN criteria. The remaining habitats are highly fragmented and only a few larger forest patches remain.

Conclusion/Significance

Based on our findings, we recommend that future conservation efforts for the flat-headed cat should focus on the identified remaining key localities and be implemented through a continuous dialogue between local stakeholders, conservationists and scientists to ensure its long-term survival. The flat-headed cat can serve as a flagship species for the protection of several other endangered species associated with the threatened tropical lowland forests and surface fresh-water sources in this region.     

Quantifying High Resolution Transitional Breaks in Plant and Mammal Distributions at Regional Extent and Their Association with Climate,Topography and Geology

Objectives

We quantify spatial turnover in communities of 1939 plant and 59 mammal species at 2.5 km resolution across a topographically heterogeneous region in south-eastern Australia to identify distributional breaks and low turnover zones where multiple species distributions overlap. Environmental turnover is measured to determine how climate, topography and geology influence biotic turnover differently across a variety of biogeographic breaks and overlaps. We identify the genera driving turnover and confirm the versatility of this approach across spatial scales and locations.

Methods

Directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°, were used to measure spatial turnover variation in different directions between gridded cells containing georeferenced plant and mammal occurrences and environmental variables. Generalised linear models were used to compare taxic turnover results with equivalent analyses for geology, regolith weathering, elevation, slope, solar radiation, annual precipitation and annual mean temperature, both uniformly across the entire study area and by stratifying it into zones of high and low turnover. Identified breaks and transitions were compared to a conservation bioregionalisation framework widely used in Australia.

Results/Significance

Detailed delineations of plant and mammal turnover zones with gradational boundaries denoted subtle variation in species assemblages. Turnover patterns often diverged from bioregion boundaries, though plant turnover adhered most closely. A prominent break zone contained either comparable or greater numbers of unique genera than adjacent overlaps, but these were concentrated in a small subsection relatively under-protected by conservation reserves. The environmental correlates of biotic turnover varied for different turnover zones in different subsections of the study area. Topography and temperature showed much stronger relationships with plant turnover in a topographically complex overlap, relative to a lowland overlap where weathering was most predictive. This method can quantify transitional turnover patterns from small to broad extents, at different resolutions for any location, and complements broad-scale bioregionalisation schemes in conservation planning.