Annual ecosystem respiration is resistant to changes in freeze–thaw periods in semi‐arid permafrost

Warming in cold regions alters freezing and thawing (F–T) of soil in winter, exposing soil organic carbon to decomposition. Carbon‐rich permafrost is expected to release more CO₂ to the atmosphere through ecosystem respiration (Re) under future climate scenarios. However, the mechanisms of the responses of freeze – thaw periods to climate change and their coupling with Re in situ are poorly understood. Here, using 2 years of continuous data, we test how changes in F–T events relate to annual Re under four warming levels and precipitation addition in a semi‐arid grassland with discontinuous alpine permafrost. Warming shortened the entire F–T period because the frozen period shortened more than the extended freezing period. It decreased total Re during the F–T period mainly due to decrease in mean Re rate. However, warming did not alter annual Re because of reduced soil water content and the small contribution of total Re during the F–T period to annual Re. Although there were no effects of precipitation addition alone or interactions with warming on F–T events, precipitation addition increased total Re during the F–T period and the whole year. This decoupling between changes in soil freeze – thaw events and annual Re could result from their different driving factors. Our results suggest that annual Re could be mainly determined by soil water content rather than by change in freeze – thaw periods induced by warming in semi‐arid alpine permafrost.     

Chemical characterization of dissolved organic matter in moist acidic tussock tundra soil using ultra-high resolution 15T FT-ICR mass spectrometry

Global warming is considered one of the most serious environmental issues, substantially mediating abrupt climate changes, and has stronger impacts in the Arctic ecosystems than in any other regions. In particular, thawing permafrost in the Arctic region with warming can be strongly contributing the emission of greenhouse gases (CO₂ and CH₄) that are produced from microbial decomposition of preserved soil organic matter (SOM) or are trapped in frozen permafrost soils, consequently accelerating global warming and abrupt climate changes. Therefore, understanding chemical and physical properties of permafrost SOM is important for interpreting the chemical and biological decomposability of SOM. In this study, we investigated dissolved organic matter (DOM) along the soil depth profile in moist acidic tussock tundra to better understand elemental compositions and distributions of the arctic SOM to evaluate their potential decomposability under climate change. To achieve ultra-high resolution mass profiles, the soil extracts were analyzed using a 15 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer in positive and negative ion modes via electrospray ionization. The results of this analysis revealed that the deeper organic soil (2Oe1 horizon) exhibits less CHON class and more aromatic class compounds compared to the surface organic soils, thus implying that the 2Oe1 horizon has undergone a more decomposition process and consequently possessed the recalcitrant materials. The compositional features of DOM in the Arctic tundra soils are important for understanding the changes in biogeochemical cycles caused from permafrost changes associated with global warming and climate change.     

黄河源区不同类型冻土土壤水分入渗特性

冻土土壤水分运动由于受到冻融过程的影响而显示其独特性,而目前对于不同类型冻土土壤水分入渗特性尚缺乏足够的认识。为此,以黄河源区康穷小盆地多下坡年冻土和上坡季节冻土区为例,结合季节降雨变化,基于大气降水、冻土土壤水分、冻结层上水等野外监测数据分析,采用HYDRUS-1D软件冻融模块进行土壤水分入渗模拟,对比分析了融化期多年冻土和季节冻土土壤水分运移过程的差异性,研究结果表明：①在快速融化阶段,降雨以地表径流为主,表层土壤水分含量增加,土壤下渗有限,冻结层上水位上升幅度较小;在稳定融化阶段,土壤水分含量增加,土壤水分下渗增强,受冻土层阻隔影响,多年冻土区冻结层上水水位上升幅度较大,季节冻土区土壤水分则以深层渗漏或侧向流动为主。②受到降雨强度、土壤质地、蒸散发、植被覆盖等因素的影响,降雨损失主要以地表径流为主,下坡各层土壤水分随冻结土壤融化自上而下逐渐增加并达到饱和状态,但上坡表层土壤不易达到饱水状态。③区域河流贯穿融区地下水发育,导致上坡冻结层上水位小幅度上升,下坡冻结层上水位的变化除受到降雨入渗的影响外,还受到融区地下水的影响,引起下坡冻结层上水位的快速上升。研究结果有助于深入了解全球气候变化背景下的冻土退化及其水文效应,进而为定量评估流域水资源脆弱性与区域生态敏感性提供科学依据。     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

Decade of experimental permafrost thaw reduces turnover of young carbon and increases losses of old carbon,without affecting the net carbon balance

Thicker snowpacks and their insulation effects cause winter‐warming and invoke thaw of permafrost ecosystems. Temperature‐dependent decomposition of previously frozen carbon (C) is currently considered one of the strongest feedbacks between the Arctic and the climate system, but the direction and magnitude of the net C balance remains uncertain. This is because winter effects are rarely integrated with C fluxes during the snow‐free season and because predicting the net C balance from both surface processes and thawing deep layers remains challenging. In this study, we quantified changes in the long‐term net C balance (net ecosystem production) in a subarctic peat plateau subjected to 10 years of experimental winter‐warming. By combining ²¹⁰Pb and ¹⁴Cdating of peat cores with peat growth models, we investigated thawing effects on year‐round primary production and C losses through respiration and leaching from both shallow and deep peat layers. Winter‐warming and permafrost thaw had no effect on the net C balance, but strongly affected gross C fluxes. Carbon losses through decomposition from the upper peat were reduced as thawing of permafrost induced surface subsidence and subsequent waterlogging. However, primary production was also reduced likely due to a strong decline in bryophytes cover while losses from the old C pool almost tripled, caused by the deepened active layer. Our findings highlight the need to estimate long‐term responses of whole‐year production and decomposition processes to thawing, both in shallow and deep soil layers, as they may contrast and lead to unexpected net effects on permafrost C storage.     

Effect of Climate Change on Soil Temperature in Swedish Boreal Forests

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.     

Volatile emissions from thawing permafrost soils are influenced by meltwater drainage conditions

Vast amounts of carbon are bound in both active layer and permafrost soils in the Arctic. As a consequence of climate warming, the depth of the active layer is increasing in size and permafrost soils are thawing. We hypothesize that pulses of biogenic volatile organic compounds are released from the near‐surface active layer during spring, and during late summer season from thawing permafrost, while the subsequent biogeochemical processes occurring in thawed soils also lead to emissions. Biogenic volatile organic compounds are reactive gases that have both negative and positive climate forcing impacts when introduced to the Arctic atmosphere, and the knowledge of their emission magnitude and pattern is necessary to construct reliable climate models. However, it is unclear how different ecosystems and environmental factors such as drainage conditions upon permafrost thaw affect the emission and compound composition. Here we show that incubations of frozen B horizon of the active layer and permafrost soils collected from a High Arctic heath and fen release a range of biogenic volatile organic compounds upon thaw and during subsequent incubation experiments at temperatures of 10°C and 20°C. Meltwater drainage in the fen soils increased emission rates nine times, while having no effect in the drier heath soils. Emissions generally increased with temperature, and emission profiles for the fen soils were dominated by benzenoids and alkanes, while benzenoids, ketones, and alcohols dominated in heath soils. Our results emphasize that future changes affecting the drainage conditions of the Arctic tundra will have a large influence on volatile emissions from thawing permafrost soils – particularly in wetland/fen areas.     

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40‐year tree ring record and a 30‐year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (?10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (?26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving‐window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate–growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the ‘climate hiatus’. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.     

多年冻土退化对湿地甲烷排放的影响研究进展

全球气候变暖导致北半球大部分多年冻土区的冻土已经开始退化。多年冻土退化对冻土区湿地CH₄排放产生重要影响,可能直接决定冻土区湿地对全球气候变暖的反馈方式。综述了近年来多年冻土退化对湿地CH₄排放影响的研究。多年冻土退化导致的土壤活动层深度增加和植被类型由中生向湿生的转变都可能会大大增加冻土区湿地CH₄排放量,从而可能对全球气候变暖产生正反馈作用。但多年冻土退化导致的水文条件变化、土壤温度变化和微生物组成及活性变化对湿地CH₄排放的影响却存在一定的不确定性。多年冻土退化除了影响湿地CH₄排放量之外,还可能通过改变土壤冻融过程而影响湿地CH₄排放的季节分配模式。最后提出目前研究中存在的问题,并对未来研究方向进行了展望。     

Effects of soil warming during spring on photosynthetic recovery in boreal Norway spruce stands

The effect of soil thawing and soil temperature on postwinter recovery of photosynthetic capacity was studied, during late spring and early summer, in Norway spruce stands in northern Sweden. Soil temperature was manipulated by means of buried heating cables. The warming treatment was applied to stands with low (natural) and high (fertilized) availability of nutrients. Soil thawing, expressed as water availability, was followed by means of sapflow in stems, and shoot water potentials. The recovery of photosynthetic capacity was assessed by measuring the rate of light-saturated photosynthesis (A_max), and maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II in detached shoots, and chlorophyll a fluorescence. Accumulation of starch reserves in the needles was followed as an independent indicator of photosynthetic performance in situ. Snowmelt and soil thawing occurred more than one month earlier in heated than in unheated plots. This was expressed both as sapflow and as differences in shoot water potential between treatments. During May, the rates of A_max were significantly higher on heated than on control plots. The effect of soil warming on A_max was, however, not reflected in chlorophyll fluorescence or needle starch content. The time course of the recovery of photosynthetic capacity was mainly controlled by mean air temperature and by the frequency of severe night frosts, and to a lesser extent by earlier soil thawing and higher soil temperatures.     

Persistent effects of a discrete warming event on a polar desert ecosystem

A discrete warming event (December 21, 2001–January 12, 2002) in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, enhanced glacier melt, stream flow, and melting of permafrost. Effects of this warming included a rapid rise in lake levels and widespread increases in soil water availability resulting from melting of subsurface ice. These increases in liquid water offset hydrologic responses to a cooling trend experienced over the previous decade and altered ecosystem properties in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present hydrological and meteorological data from the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long Term Ecological Research project to examine the influence of a discrete climate event (warming of >2 °C) on terrestrial environments and soil biotic communities. Increases in soil moisture following this event stimulated populations of a subordinate soil invertebrate species (Eudorylaimus antarcticus, Nematoda). The pulse of melt-water had significant influences on Taylor Valley ecosystems that persisted for several years, and illustrates that the importance of discrete climate events, long recognized in hot deserts, are also significant drivers of soil and aquatic ecosystems in polar deserts. Thus, predictions of Antarctic ecosystem responses to climate change which focus on linear temperature trends may miss the potentially significant influence of infrequent climate events on hydrology and linked ecological processes.     

羌塘国家级自然保护区地表土壤冻结天数时空变化特征

利用1981—2018年羌塘自然保护区周边5个气象台站的地表逐日最低温度和平均气温资料,采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法,分析了近38 a以及全球变暖1.5℃和2℃阈值时羌塘自然保护区地表土壤冻结天数的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)近38 a近地表土壤冻结开始日期呈推迟趋势,变化率为7.72 d·10 a^-1,冻结终止日期以8.17d·10 a^-1的速率显著提早;冻结持续时间和冻结天数均呈显著缩短趋势,平均每10年分别缩短14.69和11.19 d;同时段内,自然保护区大部分土壤冻结参数的变化率均大于青藏高原。(2)在年代际变化上,自然保护区呈现土壤冻结开始日期推迟、冻结终止日期提前、冻结持续时间和冻结天数缩短的变化特征。(3)土壤冻结参数在21世纪初均发生了气候突变,较青藏高原土壤冻融时间的突变点偏晚。(4)在全球变暖1.5℃时,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的自然保护区土壤冻结参数变化值相同,冻结开始日期推迟25 d,冻结终止日期提早22 d,冻结持续时间和冻结天数分别缩短46和28 d;变暖2.0℃时,RCP4.5...     

基于OTCs模拟增温方式探讨气候变暖对青藏高原草地生态系统的影响

开顶式生长室(OTCs)增温实验是研究全球气候变化与陆地生态系统关系的主要方法之一,已广泛应用于青藏高原地区。该文通过对近些年国内外研究文献的回顾,分别从植物物候、群落结构、生物量和土壤方面综合分析青藏高原草地生态系统对OTCs模拟增温实验的响应。研究发现:增温使群落返青期提前、枯黄期延迟,生长季延长;有利于禾本科植物的生长;高寒草甸地下生物量分配格局向深层转移;高寒草地生态系统对模拟增温的响应存在不确定性,受到地域、群落类型和实验时间的影响;在增温条件下,降雨和冻土融化引起的土壤水分变化通过调控生态系统的物候、生产力、土壤等途径控制着生态系统对气候变暖的响应。并在此基础上,提出了将来应着重研究的几个方面。     

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground‐based long‐term (20–50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies.     

How Early Can the Seeding Dates of Spring Wheat Be under Current and Future Climate in Saskatchewan,Canada?

Background

Shorter growing season and water stress near wheat maturity are the main factors that presumably limit the yield potential of spring wheat due to late seeding in Saskatchewan, Canada. Advancing seeding dates can be a strategy to help producers mitigate the impact of climate change on spring wheat. It is unknown, however, how early farmers can seed while minimizing the risk of spring frost damage and the soil and machinery constraints.

Methodology/principal findings

This paper explores early seeding dates of spring wheat on the Canadian Prairies under current and projected future climate. To achieve this, (i) weather records from 1961 to 1990 were gathered at three sites with different soil and climate conditions in Saskatchewan, Canada; (ii) four climate databases that included a baseline (treated as historic weather climate during the period of 1961–1990) and three climate change scenarios (2040–2069) developed by the Canadian global climate model (GCM) with the forcing of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1); (iii) seeding dates of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under baseline and projected future climate were predicted. Compared with the historical record of seeding dates, the predicted seeding dates were advanced under baseline climate for all sites using our seeding date model. Driven by the predicted temperature increase of the scenarios compared with baseline climate, all climate change scenarios projected significantly earlier seeding dates than those currently used. Compared to the baseline conditions, there is no reduction in grain yield because precipitation increases during sensitive growth stages of wheat, suggesting that there is potential to shift seeding to an earlier date. The average advancement of seeding dates varied among sites and chosen scenarios. The Swift Current (south-west) site has the highest potential for earlier seeding (7 to 11 days) whereas such advancement was small in the Melfort (north-east, 2 to 4 days) region.

Conclusions/significance

The extent of projected climate change in Saskatchewan indicates that growers in this region have the potential of earlier seeding. The results obtained in this study may be used for adaptation assessments of seeding dates under possible climate change to mitigate the impact of potential warming.     

Permafrost response to temperature rise in carbon and nutrient cycling: Effects from habitat‐specific conditions and factors of warming

Permafrost is experiencing climate warming at a rate that is two times faster than the rest of the Earth''s surface. However, it is still lack of a quantitative basis for predicting the functional stability of permafrost ecosystems in carbon (C) and nutrient cycling. We compiled the data of 708 observations from 89 air‐warming experiments in the Northern Hemisphere and characterized the general effects of temperature increase on permafrost C exchange and balance, biomass production, microbial biomass, soil nutrients, and vegetation N dynamics through a meta‐analysis. Also, an investigation was made on how responses might change with habitat‐specific (e.g., plant functional groups and soil moisture status) conditions and warming variables (e.g., warming phases, levels, and timing). The net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) was found to be downregulated by warming as a result of a stronger sensitivity to warming in respiration (15.6%) than in photosynthesis (6.2%). Vegetation usually responded to warming by investing more C to the belowground, as belowground biomass increased much more (30.1%) than aboveground biomass (2.9%). Warming had a minor effect on microbial biomass. Warming increased soil ammonium and nitrate concentrations. What''s more, a synthesis of 70 observations from 11 herbs and 9 shrubs revealed a 2.5% decline of N in green leaves. Compared with herbs, shrubs had a stronger response to respiration and had a decline in green leaf N to a greater extent. Not only in dry condition did green leaf N decline with warming but also in wet conditions. Warming in nongrowing seasons would negatively affect soil water, C uptake, and biomass production during growing seasons. Permafrost C loss and vegetation N decline may increase with warming levels and timing. Overall, these findings suggest that besides a positive C cycling–climate feedback, there will be a negative feedback between permafrost nutrient cycling and climate warming.     

The permafrost carbon inventory on the Tibetan Plateau: a new evaluation using deep sediment cores

The permafrost organic carbon (OC) stock is of global significance because of its large pool size and the potential positive feedback to climate warming. However, due to the lack of systematic field observations and appropriate upscaling methodologies, substantial uncertainties exist in the permafrost OC budget, which limits our understanding of the fate of frozen carbon in a warming world. In particular, the lack of comprehensive estimates of OC stocks across alpine permafrost means that current knowledge on this issue remains incomplete. Here, we evaluated the pool size and spatial variations of permafrost OC stock to 3 m depth on the Tibetan Plateau by combining systematic measurements from a substantial number of pedons (i.e. 342 three‐metre‐deep cores and 177 50‐cm‐deep pits) with a machine learning technique (i.e. support vector machine, SVM). We also quantified uncertainties in permafrost carbon budget by conducting Monte Carlo simulations. Our results revealed that the combination of systematic measurements with the SVM model allowed spatially explicit estimates to be made. The OC density (OC amount per unit area, OCD) exhibited a decreasing trend from the south‐eastern to the north‐western plateau, with the exception that OCD in the swamp meadow was substantially higher than that in surrounding regions. Our results also demonstrated that Tibetan permafrost stored a large amount of OC in the top 3 m, with the median OC pool size being 15.31 Pg C (interquartile range: 13.03–17.77 Pg C). 44% of OC occurred in deep layers (i.e. 100–300 cm), close to the proportion observed across the northern circumpolar permafrost region. The large carbon pool size together with significant permafrost thawing suggests a risk of carbon emissions and positive climate feedback across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region.     

Small-scale plant species distribution in snowbeds and its sensitivity to climate change

Alpine snowbeds are characterized by a long-lasting snow cover and low soil temperature during the growing season. Both these key abiotic factors controlling plant life in snowbeds are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change and will alter the environmental conditions in snowbeds to a considerable extent until the end of this century. In order to name winners and losers of climate change among the plant species inhabiting snowbeds, we analyzed the small-scale species distribution along the snowmelt and soil temperature gradients within alpine snowbeds in the Swiss Alps. The results show that the date of snowmelt and soil temperature were relevant abiotic factors for small-scale vegetation patterns within alpine snowbed communities. Species richness in snowbeds was reduced to about 50% along the environmental gradients towards later snowmelt date or lower daily maximum temperature. Furthermore, the occurrence pattern of the species along the snowmelt gradient allowed the establishment of five species categories with different predictions of their distribution in a warmer world. The dominants increased their relative cover with later snowmelt date and will, therefore, lose abundance due to climate change, but resist complete disappearance from the snowbeds. The indifferents and the transients increased in species number and relative cover with higher temperature and will profit from climate warming. The snowbed specialists will be the most suffering species due to the loss of their habitats as a consequence of earlier snowmelt dates in the future and will be replaced by the avoiders of late-snowmelt sites. These forthcoming profiteers will take advantage from an increasing number of suitable habitats due to an earlier start of the growing season and increased temperature. Therefore, the characteristic snowbed vegetation will change to a vegetation unit dominated by alpine grassland species. The study highlights the vulnerability of the established snowbed vegetation to climate change and requires further studies particularly about the role of biotic interactions in the predicted invasion and replacement process.     

Effects of experimental warming of air,soil and permafrost on carbon balance in Alaskan tundra

The carbon (C) storage capacity of northern latitude ecosystems may diminish as warming air temperatures increase permafrost thaw and stimulate decomposition of previously frozen soil organic C. However, warming may also enhance plant growth so that photosynthetic carbon dioxide (CO₂) uptake may, in part, offset respiratory losses. To determine the effects of air and soil warming on CO₂ exchange in tundra, we established an ecosystem warming experiment – the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research (CiPEHR) project – in the northern foothills of the Alaska Range in Interior Alaska. We used snow fences coupled with spring snow removal to increase deep soil temperatures and thaw depth (winter warming) and open‐top chambers to increase growing season air temperatures (summer warming). Winter warming increased soil temperature (integrated 5–40 cm depth) by 1.5 °C, which resulted in a 10% increase in growing season thaw depth. Surprisingly, the additional 2 kg of thawed soil C m^?2 in the winter warming plots did not result in significant changes in cumulative growing season respiration, which may have been inhibited by soil saturation at the base of the active layer. In contrast to the limited effects on growing‐season C dynamics, winter warming caused drastic changes in winter respiration and altered the annual C balance of this ecosystem by doubling the net loss of CO₂ to the atmosphere. While most changes to the abiotic environment at CiPEHR were driven by winter warming, summer warming effects on plant and soil processes resulted in 20% increases in both gross primary productivity and growing season ecosystem respiration and significantly altered the age and sources of CO₂ respired from this ecosystem. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of organic C stored in near surface permafrost to increasing temperatures and the strong potential for warming tundra to serve as a positive feedback to global climate change.     

Effects of climate and demography on reproductive phenology of a harvested marine fish population

Shifts in phenology are a well‐documented ecological response to changes in climate, which may or may not be adaptive for a species depending on the climate sensitivity of other ecosystem processes. Furthermore, phenology may be affected by factors in addition to climate, which may accentuate or dampen climate‐driven phenological responses. In this study, we investigate how climate and population demographic structure jointly affect spawning phenology of a fish species of major commercial importance: walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). We use 32 years of data from ichthyoplankton surveys to reconstruct timing of pollock reproduction in the Gulf of Alaska and find that the mean date of spawning has varied by over 3 weeks throughout the last >3 decades. Climate clearly drives variation in spawn timing, with warmer temperatures leading to an earlier and more protracted spawning period, consistent with expectations of advanced spring phenology under warming. However, the effects of temperature were nonlinear, such that additional warming above a threshold value had no additional effect on phenology. Population demographics were equally as important as temperature: An older and more age‐diverse spawning stock tended to spawn earlier and over a longer duration than a younger stock. Our models suggest that demographic shifts associated with sustainable harvest rates could shift the mean spawning date 7 days later and shorten the spawning season by 9 days relative to an unfished population, independent of thermal conditions. Projections under climate change suggest that spawn timing will become more stable for walleye pollock in the future, but it is unknown what the consequences of this stabilization will be for the synchrony of first‐feeding larvae with production of zooplankton prey in spring. With ongoing warming in the world’s oceans, knowledge of the mechanisms underlying reproductive phenology can improve our ability to monitor and manage species under changing climate conditions.