Air-sea carbon dioxide equilibrium: Will it be possible to use seaweeds for carbon removal offsets?

To limit global warming below 2°C by 2100, we must drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and additionally remove ~100–900 Gt CO₂ from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) to compensate for unavoidable emissions. Seaweeds (marine macroalgae) naturally grow in coastal regions worldwide where they are crucial for primary production and carbon cycling. They are being considered as a biological method for CDR and for use in carbon trading schemes as offsets. To use seaweeds in carbon trading schemes requires verification that seaweed photosynthesis that fixes CO₂ into organic carbon results in CDR, along with the safe and secure storage of the carbon removed from the atmosphere for more than 100 years (sequestration). There is much ongoing research into the magnitude of seaweed carbon storage pools (e.g., as living biomass and as particulate and dissolved organic carbon in sediments and the deep ocean), but these pools do not equate to CDR unless the amount of CO₂ removed from the atmosphere as a result of seaweed primary production can be quantified and verified. The draw-down of atmospheric CO₂ into seawater is via air-sea CO₂ equilibrium, which operates on time scales of weeks to years depending upon the ecosystem considered. Here, we explain why quantifying air-sea CO₂ equilibrium and linking this process to seaweed carbon storage pools is the critical step needed to verify CDR by discrete seaweed beds and nearshore and open ocean aquaculture systems prior to their use in carbon trading.     

Roles of food web and heterotrophic microbial processes in upper ocean biogeochemistry: Global patterns and processes

The growth and dynamics of plankton in the ocean vary with natural cycles, global climate change and the long-term evolution of ecosystems. The ocean is a large reservoir for CO₂ and the food webs in the upper ocean play critical roles in regulating the global carbon cycle, changes in atmospheric CO₂ and associated global warming. Microheterotrophs are a key component of the upper ocean food webs. Here, we report on the results of an analysis of the distribution of bacteria and related properties in the World Ocean. We found that, for the data set as a whole, there is a significant latitudinal gradient in all field-measured and computed bacterial properties, except growth rate. Gradients were, for the most part, driven by an equator-ward increase in the Southern Hemisphere. The biomass, rates of production and respiration and dissolved organic carbon concentrations were significantly higher in the Northern than the Southern hemispheres. In contrast, growth rates were the same in the two hemispheres. We conclude that the lower biomass and production in the Southern Hemisphere reflects greater top-down control by microbial grazers, which would be due to a lower abundance or activity of omnivorous zooplankton in the Southern than Northern Hemispheres. These large spatial differences in dynamics, structure and activity of the bacterial community and the microbial food web will be reflected in different patterns of carbon cycling, export and air–sea exchange of CO₂ and the potential ability of the ocean to sequester carbon.     

Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change

The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business‐as‐usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% ± 2.5% over the twenty‐first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid‐to‐high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.     

Community composition has greater impact on the functioning of marine phytoplankton communities than ocean acidification

Ecosystem functioning is simultaneously affected by changes in community composition and environmental change such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and subsequent ocean acidification. However, it largely remains uncertain how the effects of these factors compare to each other. Addressing this question, we experimentally tested the hypothesis that initial community composition and elevated CO₂ are equally important to the regulation of phytoplankton biomass. We full‐factorially exposed three compositionally different marine phytoplankton communities to two different CO₂ levels and examined the effects and relative importance (ω²) of the two factors and their interaction on phytoplankton biomass at bloom peak. The results showed that initial community composition had a significantly greater impact than elevated CO₂ on phytoplankton biomass, which varied largely among communities. We suggest that the different initial ratios between cyanobacteria, diatoms, and dinoflagellates might be the key for the varying competitive and thus functional outcome among communities. Furthermore, the results showed that depending on initial community composition elevated CO₂ selected for larger sized diatoms, which led to increased total phytoplankton biomass. This study highlights the relevance of initial community composition, which strongly drives the functional outcome, when assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. In particular, the increase in phytoplankton biomass driven by the gain of larger sized diatoms in response to elevated CO₂ potentially has strong implications for nutrient cycling and carbon export in future oceans.     

Soil microorganisms respond to five years of climate change manipulations and elevated atmospheric CO2 in a temperate heath ecosystem

Background and aims

Soil microbial responses to global change can affect organic matter turnover and nutrient cycling thereby altering the overall ecosystem functioning. In a large-scale experiment, we investigated the impact of 5 years of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO₂ on soil microorganisms and nutrient availability in a temperate heathland.

Methods

The future climate was simulated by increased soil temperature (+0.3 °C), extended pre-summer drought (excluding 5–8 % of the annual precipitation) and elevated CO₂ (+130 ppm) in a factorial design. Soil organic matter and nutrient pools were analysed and linked to microbial measures by quantitative PCR of bacteria and fungi, chloroform fumigation extraction, and substrate-induced respiration to assess their impact of climate change on nutrient availability.

Results

Warming resulted in higher measures of fungi and bacteria, of microbial biomass and of microbial growth potential, however, this did not reduce the availability of nitrogen or phosphorus in the soil. Elevated CO₂ did not directly affect the microbial measures or nutrient pools, whereas drought shifted the microbial community towards a higher fungal dominance.

Conclusions

Although we were not able to show strong interactive effects of the global change factors, warming and drought changed both nutrient availability and microbial community composition in the heathland soil, which could alter the ecosystem carbon and nutrient flow in the long-term.     

Oceanic sinks for atmospheric CO2

There is approximately 50 times more inorganic carbon in the global ocean than in the atmosphere. On time scales of decades to millions of years, the interaction between these two geophysical fluids determines atmospheric CO₂ levels. During glacial periods, for example, the ocean serves as the major sink for atmospheric CO₂, while during glacial–interglacial transitions, it is a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere. The mechanisms responsible for determining the sign of the net exchange of CO₂ between the ocean and the atmosphere remain unresolved. There is evidence that during glacial periods, phytoplankton primary productivity increased, leading to an enhanced sedimentation of particulate organic carbon into the ocean interior. The stimulation of primary production in glacial episodes can be correlated with increased inputs of nutrients limiting productivity, especially aeolian iron. Iron directly enhances primary production in high nutrient (nitrate and phosphate) regions of the ocean, of which the Southern Ocean is the most important. This trace element can also enhance nitrogen fixation, and thereby indirectly stimulate primary production throughout the low nutrient regions of the central ocean basins. While the export flux of organic carbon to the ocean interior was enhanced during glacial periods, this process does not fully account for the sequestration of atmospheric CO₂. Heterotrophic oxidation of the newly formed organic carbon, forming weak acids, would have hydrolyzed CaCO₃ in the sediments, increasing thereby oceanic alkalinity which, in turn, would have promoted the drawdown of atmospheric CO₂. This latter mechanism is consistent with the stable carbon isotope pattern derived from air trapped in ice cores. The oceans have also played a major role as a sink for up to 30% of the anthropogenic CO₂ produced during the industrial revolution. In large part this is due to CO₂ solution in the surface ocean; however, some, poorly quantified fraction is a result of increased new production due to anthropogenic inputs of combined N, P and Fe. Based on ‘circulation as usual’, models predict that future anthropogenic CO₂ inputs to the atmosphere will, in part, continue to be sequestered in the ocean. Human intervention (large-scale Fe fertilization; direct CO₂ burial in the deep ocean) could increase carbon sequestration in the oceans, but could also result in unpredicted environmental perturbations. Changes in the oceanic thermohaline circulation as a result of global climate change would greatly alter the predictions of C sequestration that are possible on a ‘circulation as usual’ basis.     

Defining CO2 and O2 syndromes of marine biomes in the Anthropocene

Research efforts have intensified to foresee the prospects for marine biomes under climate change and anthropogenic drivers over varying temporal and spatial scales. Parallel with these efforts is the utilization of terminology, such as ‘ocean acidification’ (OA) and ‘ocean deoxygenation’ (OD), that can foster rapid comprehension of complex processes driving carbon dioxide (CO₂) and oxygen (O₂) concentrations in the global ocean and thus, are now widely used in discussions within and beyond academia. However, common usage of the terms ‘acidification’ and ‘deoxygenation’ alone are subjective and, without adequate contextualization, have the potential to mislead inferences over drivers that may ultimately shape the future state of marine ecosystems. Here we clarify the usage of the terms OA and OD as global, climate change‐driven processes and discuss the various attributes of elevated CO₂ and reduced O₂ syndromes common to coastal ecosystems. We support the use of the existing terms ‘coastal acidification’ and ‘coastal deoxygenation’ because they help differentiate the sometimes rapid and extreme nature of CO₂ and O₂ syndromes in coastal ecosystems from the global, climate change‐driven processes of OA and OD. Given the complexity and breadth of the processes involved in altering CO₂ and O₂ concentrations across marine ecosystems, we provide a workflow to enable contextualization and clarification of the usage of existing terms and highlight the close link between these two gases across spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. These distinctions are crucial to guide effective communication of research within the scientific community and guide policymakers responsible for intervening on the drivers to secure desirable future ocean states.     

How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes

We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO₂ was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr^?1 at the time of atmospheric CO₂ doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO₂ are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.     

造林再造林、森林采伐、气候变化、CO2浓度升高、火灾和虫害对森林固碳能力的影响

森林生态系统具有吸收大气CO_2、缓解气候变化的作用。造林再造林作为京都议定书认可的大气CO_2减排途径,是提高森林固碳能力的低成本、有效策略。森林生态系统固碳能力还受森林采伐、气候变化、大气CO_2浓度升高、火灾以及虫害等自然因素和人为因素的强烈影响。综述了全球和区域造林再造林的固碳能力,以及目前较受重视的一些因素(森林采伐、气候变化、大气CO_2浓度升高、火灾以及虫害)对森林生态系统固碳能力的影响。结果表明,全球造林再造林固碳能力为148—2400TgC/a;采伐造成的全球森林碳损失最大为900 TgC/a,其次是火灾为300 TgC/a,虫害造成森林碳释放最小在2—107 TgC/a之间。建议在今后的研究中,应关注固碳措施和多种环境因素对森林生态系统固碳能力,尤其是对森林土壤固碳能力的影响,严格控制森林采伐和火灾发生,以及减少或避免造林再造林活动引起的碳泄漏。     

Spatial heterogeneity in soil nutrient supply modulates nutrient and biomass responses to multiple global change drivers in model grassland communities

Changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO₂]), nutrient availability and biotic diversity are three major drivers of the ongoing global change impacting terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. While it is well established that soil nutrient heterogeneity exerts a strong influence on the development of plant individuals and communities, it is virtually unknown how nutrient heterogeneity and global change drivers interact to affect plant performance and ecosystem functioning. We conducted a microcosm experiment to evaluate the effect of simultaneous changes in [CO₂], nutrient heterogeneity (NH), nutrient availability (NA) and species evenness on the biomass and nutrient uptake patterns of assemblages formed by Lolium perenne, Plantago lanceolata and Holcus lanatus. When the nutrients were heterogeneously supplied, assemblages exhibited precise root foraging patterns, and had higher above‐ and belowground biomass (average increases of 32% and 29% for above‐ and belowground biomass, respectively). Nutrient heterogeneity also modulated the effects of NA on biomass production, complementarity in nitrogen uptake and below: aboveground ratio, as well as those of [CO₂] on the nutrient use efficiency at the assemblage level. Our results show that nutrient heterogeneity has the potential to influence the response of plant assemblages to simultaneous changes in [CO₂], nutrient availability and biotic diversity, and suggest that it is an important environmental factor to interpret and assess plant assemblage responses to global change.     

The marine nitrogen cycle: recent discoveries,uncertainties and the potential relevance of climate change

The ocean''s nitrogen cycle is driven by complex microbial transformations, including nitrogen fixation, assimilation, nitrification, anammox and denitrification. Dinitrogen is the most abundant form of nitrogen in sea water but only accessible by nitrogen-fixing microbes. Denitrification and nitrification are both regulated by oxygen concentrations and potentially produce nitrous oxide (N₂O), a climate-relevant atmospheric trace gas. The world''s oceans, including the coastal areas and upwelling areas, contribute about 30 per cent to the atmospheric N₂O budget and are, therefore, a major source of this gas to the atmosphere. Human activities now add more nitrogen to the environment than is naturally fixed. More than half of the nitrogen reaches the coastal ocean via river input and atmospheric deposition, of which the latter affects even remote oceanic regions. A nitrogen budget for the coastal and open ocean, where inputs and outputs match rather well, is presented. Furthermore, predicted climate change will impact the expansion of the oceans'' oxygen minimum zones, the productivity of surface waters and presumably other microbial processes, with unpredictable consequences for the cycling of nitrogen. Nitrogen cycling is closely intertwined with that of carbon, phosphorous and other biologically important elements via biological stoichiometric requirements. This linkage implies that human alterations of nitrogen cycling are likely to have major consequences for other biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functions and services.     

Impact of climate change on grassland production and soil carbon worldwide

The impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ was modelled for 31 temperate and tropical grassland sites, using the CENTURY model. Climate change increased net primary production, except in cold desert steppe regions, and CO₂ increased production everywhere. Climate change caused soil carbon to decrease overall, with a loss of 4 Pg from global grasslands after 50 years. Combined climate change and elevated CO₂ increased production and reduced global grassland C losses to 2 Pg, with tropical savannas becoming small sinks for soil C. Detection of statistically significant change in plant production would require a 16% change in measured plant production because of high year to year variability in plant production. Most of the predicted changes in plant production are less than 10%.     

Informing climate models with rapid chamber measurements of forest carbon uptake

Models predicting ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange under future climate change rely on relatively few real‐world tests of their assumptions and outputs. Here, we demonstrate a rapid and cost‐effective method to estimate CO₂ exchange from intact vegetation patches under varying atmospheric CO₂ concentrations_. We find that net ecosystem CO₂ uptake (NEE) in a boreal forest rose linearly by 4.7 ± 0.2% of the current ambient rate for every 10 ppm CO₂ increase, with no detectable influence of foliar biomass, season, or nitrogen (N) fertilization. The lack of any clear short‐term NEE response to fertilization in such an N‐limited system is inconsistent with the instantaneous downregulation of photosynthesis formalized in many global models. Incorporating an alternative mechanism with considerable empirical support – diversion of excess carbon to storage compounds – into an existing earth system model brings the model output into closer agreement with our field measurements. A global simulation incorporating this modified model reduces a long‐standing mismatch between the modeled and observed seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂. Wider application of this chamber approach would provide critical data needed to further improve modeled projections of biosphere–atmosphere CO₂ exchange in a changing climate.     

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above‐average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test‐beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal‐marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high‐resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO₂‐driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature‐defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.     

Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century

Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land‐use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO₂. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio‐temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO₂ increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4–20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio‐economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO₂ fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought‐induced forest mortality (?20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (?40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26–36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections (n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin‐wide NBP (19–37%) and aboveground live biomass (13–24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change.     

Modified future diurnal variability of the global surface ocean CO2 system

Our understanding of how increasing atmospheric CO₂ and climate change influences the marine CO₂ system and in turn ecosystems has increasingly focused on perturbations to carbonate chemistry variability. This variability can affect ocean-climate feedbacks and has been shown to influence marine ecosystems. The seasonal variability of the ocean CO₂ system has already changed, with enhanced seasonal variations in the surface ocean pCO₂ over recent decades and further amplification projected by models over the 21st century. Mesocosm studies and CO₂ vent sites indicate that diurnal variability of the CO₂ system, the amplitude of which in extreme events can exceed that of mean seasonal variability, is also likely to be altered by climate change. Here, we modified a global ocean biogeochemical model to resolve physically and biologically driven diurnal variability of the ocean CO₂ system. Forcing the model with 3-h atmospheric outputs derived from an Earth system model, we explore how surface ocean diurnal variability responds to historical changes and project how it changes under two contrasting 21st-century emission scenarios. Compared to preindustrial values, the global mean diurnal amplitude of pCO₂ increases by 4.8 μatm (+226%) in the high-emission scenario but only 1.2 μatm (+55%) in the high-mitigation scenario. The probability of extreme diurnal amplitudes of pCO₂ and [H⁺] is also affected, with 30- to 60-fold increases relative to the preindustrial under high 21st-century emissions. The main driver of heightened pCO₂ diurnal variability is the enhanced sensitivity of pCO₂ to changes in temperature as the ocean absorbs atmospheric CO₂. Our projections suggest that organisms in the future ocean will be exposed to enhanced diurnal variability in pCO₂ and [H⁺], with likely increases in the associated metabolic cost that such variability imposes.     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO₂ and temperature, CO₂ and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%–6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (−8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (−5.0% vs. −9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of −10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (−7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition.