Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination: can individual plasticity in nesting phenology prevent extreme sex ratios?

Under temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), temperatures experienced by embryos during development determine the sex of the offspring. Consequently, populations of organisms with TSD have the potential to be strongly impacted by climatic warming that could bias offspring sex ratio, a fundamental demographic parameter involved in population dynamics. Moreover, many taxa with TSD are imperiled, so research on this phenomenon, particularly long-term field study, has assumed great urgency. Recently, turtles with TSD have joined the diverse list of taxa that have demonstrated population-level changes in breeding phenology in response to recent climate change. This raises the possibility that any adverse impacts of climate change on populations may be alleviated by individual plasticity in nesting phenology. Here, we examine data from a long-term study on a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine whether changes in phenology are due to individual plasticity and whether individual plasticity in the timing of nesting has the capacity to offset the sex ratio effects of a rise in climatic temperature. We find that individual females show plasticity in the date of first nesting each year, and that this plasticity depends on the climate from the previous winter. First nesting date is not repeatable within individuals, suggesting that it would not respond to selection. Sex ratios of hatchlings within a nest declined nonsignificantly over the nesting season. However, small increases in summer temperature had a much stronger effect on nest sex ratios than did laying nests earlier in the season. For this and other reasons, it seems unlikely that individual plasticity in the timing of nesting will offset the effects of climate change on sex ratios in this population, and we hypothesize that this conclusion applies to other populations with TSD.     

Is the originality of a species measurable?

In this paper, we introduce the concept of 'originality of a species within a set' in order to indicate the average rarity of all the features belonging to this species. Using a phylogenetic tree of 70 species of New World terrestrial Carnivora, we suggest measuring the originality by a probability distribution. This maximizes the expected number of features shared by two species randomly drawn from the set. By using this new index, we take account of branch lengths whereas current indices of originality focus on tree topology. As a supplement to Nee and May's optimizing algorithm, we find that originality must be one of the criteria used in conservation planning.     

Native or not? Tracing the origin of wild-caught and captive freshwater turtles in a threatened and widely distributed species (Emys orbicularis)

Pet and food trade are among the major threats for many chelonians species worldwide. We investigate the impact of the present and past trade in European pond turtles (Emys orbicularis, E. trinacris) on their extant distribution pattern. Using a comprehensive mtDNA dataset of cytochrome b haplotypes derived from more than 1,550 individuals, we assigned wild-caught allochthonous and captive turtles from six European countries to their native regions across the entire distribution range. We found allochthonous haplotypes in all countries surveyed, providing evidence of long-distance translocations owing to past and present trade, illegal poaching or collection by tourists. In summary, we identify source regions of allochthonous turtles and past and present trade routes. Moreover, we point out future directions which would contribute to conservation and management of these threatened species.     

Is there a future for GMOs?

Despite strict regulation and a clean safety record, research and development of genetically modified (GM) crops and other organisms has been confronted with tremendous public hostility. Why has this happened, and how can scientists try to guide the debate into more rational channels? The answers may determine the future of GM technology and our ability to provide for a growing world population.     

Can germination explain the distribution of tree species in a savanna wetland?

The relationship between seed germination and ecological niche is determined by matching germination characteristics with environmental features. In this study, we selected tree species occurring in the largest savanna wetland in South America – the Pantanal. Very few species are endemic or exclusively found in savanna wetlands, and the majority of tree species occurring in the Pantanal are also found in the neighbouring Brazilian Cerrado, a drier vegetation type that does not flood. We investigated the relationship between germination characteristics and occurrence of savanna trees in wetlands testing the hypothesis that such seeds are tolerant to flooding. We also addressed the question of whether seed tolerance to flood, assessed by survival analysis, explains tree distribution along a gradient of flooding intensity. In this flooding gradient, widely distributed species are those that occur in areas subjected to low as well as to high flooding intensity whereas restricted distributed species are those that occur only in areas subjected to a low level of flood. Seeds from tree species occurring in areas subjected to different flooding intensities were collected. Seed tolerance and germination during and after both one and two months of simulated flood were evaluated. Our results show that seeds of most of the studied savanna species tolerated submergence, which helps to explain their occurrence and wide distribution in wetlands. Nevertheless, germination behaviour checked by survival functions (i.e. how germination is distributed over time) partially explained tree species distribution along a flooding gradient. We conclude that seed tolerance to flooding is one of the components of the regeneration niche that determines tree occurrence and distribution at the regional scale, from savanna to wetland, but not at a local scale along a flooding gradient.     

Are female monarch butterflies declining in eastern North America? Evidence of a 30-year change in sex ratios at Mexican overwintering sites

Every autumn the entire eastern North American population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) undergoes a spectacular migration to overwintering sites in the mountains of central Mexico, where they form massive clusters and can number in the millions. Since their discovery, these sites have been extensively studied, and in many of these studies, monarchs were captured and sexes recorded. In a recent effort to compile the sex ratio data from these published records, a surprising trend was found, which appears to show a gradual decline in proportion of females over time. Sex ratio data from 14 collections of monarchs, all spanning 30 years and totaling 69 113 individuals, showed a significant negative correlation between proportion of females and year (r = −0.69, p = 0.007). Between 1976 and 1985, 53 per cent of overwintering monarchs were female, whereas in the last decade, 43 per cent were female. The relationship was significant with and without weighting the analyses by sampling effort. Moreover, analysis of a recent three-year dataset of sex ratios revealed no variation among nine separate colonies, so differences in sampling location did not influence the trend. Additional evidence from autumn migration collections appears to confirm that proportions of females are declining, and also suggests the sex ratio is shifting on breeding grounds. While breeding monarchs face a number of threats, one possibility is an increase in prevalence of the protozoan parasite, Ophryocystis elektroscirrha, which recent evidence shows affects females more so than males. Further study will be needed to determine the exact cause of this trend, but for now it should be monitored closely.     

Climate change – Bad news for montane forest herb layer species?

Global warming presents a threat to plant species distributed at montane or alpine altitudes if the topography does not allow upward shifts in distribution ranges. Nevertheless, the species might also benefit from increasing temperatures and secondary effects on dominant species (e.g. bark beetle outbreaks or summer drought affecting the canopy species). As a consequence, disturbance frequency in montane forests might increase and light availability for herb layer species will increase. We addressed these interactions in a common garden experiment in Central Germany at different altitudes, representing cold and moist vs. warm and dry conditions. We investigated three montane species with different life forms, including a herb (Trientalis europaea), a grass (Calamagrostis villosa) and a dwarf shrub (Vaccinium myrtillus) under three shading treatments (3%, 28% and 86% of full sunlight). We hypothesized that montane species are at a disadvantage in the lowland, with the dwarf shrub suffering more than the grass. Furthermore, we hypothesized an antagonistic interaction of increased temperature and increased light conditions. While T. europaea and V. myrtillus showed only slightly responses to low altitude conditions, C. villosa displayed a nearly fifteen fold increase in biomass production, despite higher observed herbivory levels in the lowland. We failed to show an antagonistic effect of increased temperature and increased light availability, as all study species suffered from deep shade conditions and grew best under full light conditions at both sites. In conclusion, both improved temperature and light conditions might be principally beneficial for the investigated boreal species, in particular for the grass species C. villosa.     

Do female parasitoid wasps recognize and adjust sex ratios to build cooperative relationships?

Sex allocation theories provide excellent opportunities to investigate not only the extent to which individuals' behaviour is adaptive, but also how they use relevant information for their decision-making. Here, we investigated whether female parasitoid wasps recognize the sex ratios of other females and adjust their laying sex ratios accordingly. Specifically, we tested the prediction of reciprocal cooperation over sex allocation. Theory predicts more female-biased (cooperative) sex ratios than in the interest of individual benefit, when a restricted number of ovipositing females interact for a long period and their offspring mate within the natal patch. This is because the female-biased sex ratio reduces competition for mates among the male offspring of the females and increases the overall reproductive productivity of the patch. In this case, females would be expected to respond to more even (noncooperative) sex ratios by others and to retaliate by also producing a less female-biased sex ratio to avoid exploitation by defectors. However, contrary to this prediction, our experiment using a sterile male technique showed that female Melittobia australica did not change their offspring sex ratios in response to the sex ratios produced by other females. This suggests that their extremely female-biased sex ratios cannot be explained by reciprocity. A meta-analysis of studies examining sex recognition ability in parasitoid wasps also did not support the predicted pattern of relevant sex ratio adjustment, suggesting that parasitoid females do not possess this ability. Here, we discuss the conditions necessary for the evolution of reciprocity linked to recognition ability.     

Climate change and elevational diversity capacity: do weedy species take up the slack?

Climate change leads to species range shifts and consequently to changes in diversity. For many systems, increases in diversity capacity have been forecast, with spare capacity to be taken up by a pool of weedy species moved around by humans. Few tests of this hypothesis have been undertaken, and in many temperate systems, climate change impacts may be confounded by simultaneous increases in human-related disturbance, which also promote weedy species. Areas to which weedy species are being introduced, but with little human disturbance, are therefore ideal for testing the idea. We make predictions about how such diversity capacity increases play out across elevational gradients in non-water-limited systems. Then, using modern and historical data on the elevational range of indigenous and naturalized alien vascular plant species from the relatively undisturbed sub-Antarctic Marion Island, we show that alien species have contributed significantly to filling available diversity capacity and that increases in energy availability rather than disturbance are the probable underlying cause.     

Who suppresses female sexuality? An examination of support for Islamic veiling in a secular Muslim democracy as a function of sex and offspring sex

Whether it is men or women who suppress female sexuality has important implications for understanding gendered relations, ultimately providing insight into one widespread cause of female disadvantage. The question of which sex suppresses female sexuality more avidly, however, neglects that our interests are never unambiguously masculine or feminine; each of us has a combination of male and female kin which alters how much of our future fitness derive from each sex. Here we exploit a nationally representative sample of 600 Tunisians to test whether support for Islamic veiling—a proxy for female sexual suppression—is more common amongst one sex than the other, and is affected by the relative sex of one's offspring (i.e., the number of sons relative to daughters). We find that men are more supportive of Islamic veiling than women, but women with more sons are more supportive of veiling and more likely to wear veils than women with fewer sons. All effects were robust to the inclusion of religiosity, which was weaker amongst men and unrelated to the number of sons a woman had. The number of daughters affected neither religiosity nor support for veiling, but did increase women's likelihood of wearing contemporary, fashionable Tunisian veils compared with no head covering. We further found that men were more religious if they had more sons. Overall, these findings highlight that far from being the fixed strategy of one sex or the other, female sexual suppression manifests facultatively to promote one's reproductive interests directly or indirectly by creating conditions beneficial to one's descendent kin. These results show that both men and women can suppress female sexuality, although the function in either case appears more closely aligned with male rather than female interests.     

Can climate matching predict the current and future climatic suitability of the UK for the establishment of non-native birds?

Capsule: Current UK distributions of non-native birds poorly match areas identified as being climatically suitable.

Aims: Non-native species are spreading at unprecedented rates and though invasions are expected to increase under climate change, evidence for this is mixed. We assess climatic suitability throughout the UK based on the apparent match to the climate in species’ native ranges and investigate potential climatic limitation within the non-native range.

Methods: Climate was characterized within polygons representing the native ranges of 167 potentially invasive species. Parts of the UK with current and future climate similar to that in the native range were deemed climatically suitable. The incidence of recent observations inside and outside suitable areas was used to test hypotheses about climatic limitation of non-native ranges.

Results: Climate matching suggests that 69 of 167 non-native bird species could currently find climatically suitable areas for establishment in the UK. Future climate change would see this number increase by 14% by 2080. However, observed occurrences of non-native species in the UK were not significantly correlated to climatic suitability. Only 44 of the 69 species with suitable climate in the UK were present. Moreover, 85% of species observed in the UK had some UK occurrences in climatically unsuitable areas and for 57 species their entire UK range was in climatically unsuitable areas. Similar results were apparent for the subset of 12 species with established UK populations.

Conclusions: Climate matching provides a relatively poor indication of the extent of current and future suitable areas because species can adapt to new climates or other factors constrain the native range and many climatically suitable areas are currently unoccupied. Improvements to climate matching techniques and ongoing surveillance are required to refine predictions to support effective management policies.     

Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?

Changing climate can modify predator–prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food‐hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze–thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze–thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze–thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long‐term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food‐hoarding species could be substantial, because their ‘freezers’ may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food‐hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.     

Do female Drosophila melanogaster adaptively bias offspring sex ratios in relation to the age of their mate?

Modification of offspring sex ratios in response to parental quality is predicted when the long-term fitness returns of sons and daughters differ. One factor that may influence a mother's sex allocation decision is the quality (or attractiveness) of her mate. We investigated whether the sex ratios of offspring produced by female Drosophila melanogaster are biased with respect to the age of the males to which they are mated, and whether there is an adaptive basis for this phenomenon. We found that females mated to old males (13 d post-eclosion) initially produced a greater proportion of daughters than did females mated to young males (1 d post-eclosion). This pattern does not appear to be due to a systematic difference in the numbers or mortality of the X- and Y-bearing sperm originating from old and young fathers, as the overall sex ratios of all offspring produced from a single copulation did not differ between broods fathered by the two types of males. The sons of older males fared worse in competitive mating assays than did the sons of younger males, while daughters of old and young males were of comparable fitness. These results suggest that there is an adaptive basis for the observed sex ratio modification.     

Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to test ecological theory and to direct targeted surveys for species of conservation concern. Several studies have tested for an influence of species traits on the predictive accuracy of SDMs. However, most used the same set of environmental predictors for all species and/or did not use truly independent data to test SDM accuracy. We built eight SDMs for each of 24 plant species of conservation concern, varying the environmental predictors included in each SDM version. We then measured the accuracy of each SDM using independent presence and absence data to calculate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true positive rate (TPR). We used generalized linear mixed models to test for a relationship between species traits and SDM accuracy, while accounting for variation in SDM performance that might be introduced by different predictor sets. All traits affected one or both SDM accuracy measures. Species with lighter seeds, animal‐dispersed seeds, and a higher density of occurrences had higher AUC and TPR than other species, all else being equal. Long‐lived woody species had higher AUC than herbaceous species, but lower TPR. These results support the hypothesis that the strength of species–environment correlations is affected by characteristics of species or their geographic distributions. However, because each species has multiple traits, and because AUC and TPR can be affected differently, there is no straightforward way to determine a priori which species will yield useful SDMs based on their traits. Most species yielded at least one useful SDM. Therefore, it is worthwhile to build and test SDMs for the purpose of finding new populations of plant species of conservation concern, regardless of these species’ traits.