Context‐dependent interplays between truncated demographies and climate variation shape the population growth rate of a harvested species

Fisheries ecologists traditionally aimed at disentangling climate and fishing effects from the population dynamics of exploited marine fish stocks. However, recent studies have shown that internal characteristics and external forcing (climate and exploitation) have interactive rather than additive effects. Thought most of these studies explored how demographic truncation induced by exploitation affected the response of recruitment to climate, identifying a general pattern revealed to be difficult as interactions are often case‐specific. Here we compared five exploited stocks of European hake Merluccius merluccius from the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea to investigate how the interaction between internal characteristics and external forces affect the variability of the population growth rate and their consequences on recruitment. Our results show that demographic truncation induces a novel population scenario in which the growth rate is maximized when the reproductive stock is younger and less diverse. This scenario is shaped by the climate variability and the fishing pattern. The population growth rate becomes more dependent on the maturation schedule and less on the survival rates. The consequences for the recruitment dynamics are twofold; the effect of density‐dependent regulatory processes decreases while the effect of the density‐independent drivers increases. Our study shows that the interaction between internal characteristics and external forces changes across geographic locations according to 1) the importance of demographic truncation, 2) the influence of the climate on the regional hydrography and 3) the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the physical environment to which fish life history is adapted.     

Extinction, survival or recovery of large predatory fishes

Large predatory fishes have long played an important role in marine ecosystems and fisheries. Overexploitation, however, is gradually diminishing this role. Recent estimates indicate that exploitation has depleted large predatory fish communities worldwide by at least 90% over the past 50-100 years. We demonstrate that these declines are general, independent of methodology, and even higher for sensitive species such as sharks. We also attempt to predict the future prospects of large predatory fishes. (i) An analysis of maximum reproductive rates predicts the collapse and extinction of sensitive species under current levels of fishing mortality. Sensitive species occur in marine habitats worldwide and have to be considered in most management situations. (ii) We show that to ensure the survival of sensitive species in the northwest Atlantic fishing mortality has to be reduced by 40-80%. (iii) We show that rapid recovery of community biomass and diversity usually occurs when fishing mortality is reduced. However, recovery is more variable for single species, often because of the influence of species interactions. We conclude that management of multi-species fisheries needs to be tailored to the most sensitive, rather than the more robust species. This requires reductions in fishing effort, reduction in bycatch mortality and protection of key areas to initiate recovery of severely depleted communities.     

Marine protected areas in 'nonlinear' ecosystems

The very large changes observed within marine communities, owing to excessive harvesting, have been attributed to switches between alternative stable states. Correspondingly large reductions in overall fishing effort are usually difficult to implement. For such 'nonlinear' ecosystems, introducing large marine protected areas, with low to zero harvesting, but without reduction in overall fishing effort, can give a marked increase in total yield of the depleted stocks. These increases, however, are still less than can be achieved by reducing fishing effort.     

Population dynamics and potential of fisheries stock enhancement: practical theory for assessment and policy analysis

The population dynamics of fisheries stock enhancement, and its potential for generating benefits over and above those obtainable from optimal exploitation of wild stocks alone are poorly understood and highly controversial. I review pertinent knowledge of fish population biology, and extend the dynamic pool theory of fishing to stock enhancement by unpacking recruitment, incorporating regulation in the recruited stock, and accounting for biological differences between wild and hatchery fish. I then analyse the dynamics of stock enhancement and its potential role in fisheries management, using the candidate stock of North Sea sole as an example and considering economic as well as biological criteria. Enhancement through release of recruits or advanced juveniles is predicted to increase total yield and stock abundance, but reduce abundance of the naturally recruited stock component through compensatory responses or overfishing. Economic feasibility of enhancement is subject to strong constraints, including trade-offs between the costs of fishing and hatchery releases. Costs of hatchery fish strongly influence optimal policy, which may range from no enhancement at high cost to high levels of stocking and fishing effort at low cost. Release of genetically maladapted fish reduces the effectiveness of enhancement, and is most detrimental overall if fitness of hatchery fish is only moderately compromised. As a temporary measure for the rebuilding of depleted stocks, enhancement cannot substitute for effort limitation, and is advantageous as an auxiliary measure only if the population has been reduced to a very low proportion of its unexploited biomass. Quantitative analysis of population dynamics is central to the responsible use of stock enhancement in fisheries management, and the necessary tools are available.     

Density dependence and the economic efficacy of marine reserves

Predictions on the efficacy of marine reserves for benefiting fisheries differ in large part due to considerations of models of either intra- or inter-cohort population density regulating fish recruitment. Here, I consider both processes acting on recruitment and show using a bioeconomic model how for many fisheries density dependent recruitment dynamics interact with harvest costs to influence fishery profit with reserves. Reserves consolidate fishing effort, favoring fisheries that can profitably harvest low-density stocks of species where adult density mediates recruitment. Conversely, proportion coastline in reserves that maximizes profit, and relative improvement in profit from reserves over conventional management, decline with increasing harvest costs and the relative importance of intra-cohort density dependence. Reserves never increase profit when harvest cost is high, regardless of density dependent recruitment dynamics. I quantitatively synthesize diverse results in the literature, show disproportionate effects on the economic performance of reserves from considering only inter- or intra-cohort density dependence, and highlight fish population and fishery dynamics predicted to be complementary to reserve management. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO₂ effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age‐0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/ ;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age‐0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short‐term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long‐term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem‐based assessments of marine systems under climate change.     

Demographic theory of coral reef fish populations with stochastic recruitment: comparing sources of population regulation

The effects of three forms of density-dependent regulation were explored in model coral reef fish populations: top-down (predation), bottom-up (competition for food), and pelagic (non-reef-based mechanisms) control. We describe the demographic responses of both biomass and numbers of adult fish, predicting the mean and the variance of temporal fluctuations resulting from stochastic recruitment of juveniles. We find that top-down control acts by suppressing variability of numbers of fish, which in turn suppresses the variability of biomass. Bottom-up control has no effect on fluctuations of numbers of fish, though it strongly reduces fluctuations of biomass. Because fecundity of fish is directly linked to body mass, the regulation of biomass tightly regulates reproductive output independently of the number of individuals in the population. Finally, populations under pelagic control experience bounded fluctuations of biomass and numbers directly proportional to the bounded fluctuations of recruitment. The demographic signatures predicted from both bottom-up and pelagic control are consistent with current evidence supporting the recruitment limitation hypothesis in reef fish ecology. We propose tests to discriminate the dominant mode of density-dependent regulation using qualitative trends in time series demographic data across environmental clines.     

Shifting dynamic forces in fish stock fluctuations triggered by age truncation?

Accumulating evidence shows that environmental fluctuations and exploitation jointly affect marine fish populations, and understanding their interaction is a key issue for fisheries ecology. In particular, it has been proposed that age truncation induced by fisheries exploitation may increase the population's sensitivity to climate. In this study, we use unique long‐term abundance data for the Northeast Arctic stock of cod (Gadus morhua) and the Norwegian Spring‐Spawning stock of herring (Clupea harengus), which we analyze using techniques based on age‐structured population matrices. After identifying time periods with different age distributions in the spawning stock, we use linear models to quantify the relative effect of exploitation and temperature on the population growth rates. For the two populations, age truncation was found to be associated with an increasing importance of temperature and a relatively decreasing importance of exploitation, while the population growth rate became increasingly sensitive to recruitment variations. The results suggested that the removal of older age classes reduced the buffering capacity of the population, thereby making the population growth rate more dependent on recruitment than adult survival and increasing the effect of environmental fluctuations. Age structure appeared as a key characteristic that can affect the response of fish stocks to climate variations and its consequences may be of key importance for conservation and management.     

Human activity selectively impacts the ecosystem roles of parrotfishes on coral reefs

Around the globe, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems are increasingly overfished. Conventionally, studies of fishing impacts have focused on the population size and dynamics of targeted stocks rather than the broader ecosystem-wide effects of harvesting. Using parrotfishes as an example, we show how coral reef fish populations respond to escalating fishing pressure across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Based on these fish abundance data, we infer the potential impact on four key functional roles performed by parrotfishes. Rates of bioerosion and coral predation are highly sensitive to human activity, whereas grazing and sediment removal are resilient to fishing. Our results offer new insights into the vulnerability and resilience of coral reefs to the ever-growing human footprint. The depletion of fishes causes differential decline of key ecosystem functions, radically changing the dynamics of coral reefs and setting the stage for future ecological surprises.     

Recruitment of coral reef fishes along a cross-shelf gradient in the Red Sea peaks outside the hottest season

Knowledge on the early life history, ecology, and biology of marine species is crucial for future projections of the resilience of coral reef ecosystems and for adequate management strategies. A fundamental component of population dynamics is the recruitment of new individuals, and in some marine populations, this may be a limiting factor. Recruitment peaks of coral reef fishes commonly occur during the warmer months of the year in many subtropical and temperate locations worldwide. In the Red Sea, very little is known about the influence of temperature on reproductive patterns of coral reef fishes and studies on recruitment are missing. The Red Sea is one of the hottest and most isolated tropical seas in the world. We hypothesized that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the Red Sea’s hottest season may exceed the optimum for successful recruitment of some coral reef fishes, which therefore has to occur during other, cooler seasons, unlike recruitment among coral reef ecosystems around the world. We identified taxa among fish recruits by matching mitochondrial DNA sequences (using COI, commonly known as “barcoding”) and assessed potential biological and environmental drivers of recruitment. We studied three reefs located along a cross-shelf gradient for 12 consecutive months in the central Red Sea to capture seasonal changes in biotic and abiotic parameters along this gradient. Our results indicated that recruitment peaks did not occur during the hottest SSTs for most taxa, especially at the hottest inshore and mid-shelf reefs, and identified fish recruitment to be mainly and strongly correlated with the biomass of planktonic invertebrates. Moreover, temporal patterns of fish recruitment differed within and among taxonomic families among the reefs.

     

So long to genetic diversity,and thanks for all the fish

The world faces a global fishing crisis. Wild marine fisheries comprise nearly 15% of all animal protein in the human diet, but, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, nearly 60% of all commercially important marine fish stocks are overexploited, recovering, or depleted (FAO 2012 ; Fig.  1 ). Some authors have suggested that the large population sizes of harvested marine fish make even collapsed populations resistant to the loss of genetic variation by genetic drift (e.g. Beverton 1990 ). In contrast, others have argued that the loss of alleles because of overfishing may actually be more dramatic in large populations than in small ones (Ryman et al. 1995). In this issue, Pinsky & Palumbi (2014) report that overfished populations have approximately 2% lower heterozygosity and 12% lower allelic richness than populations that are not overfished. They also performed simulations which suggest that their estimates likely underestimate the actual loss of rare alleles by a factor of three or four. This important paper shows that the harvesting of marine fish can have genetic effects that threaten the long‐term sustainability of this valuable resource.     

Synchronous patterns of fluctuations in two stocks of anchovy Engraulis ringens Jenyns, 1842 in the Humboldt Current System

Most of the studies investigating synchrony in fluctuations of abundance of small pelagic fish have been based on catch data only, which do not describe the dynamics of populations as a relative abundance index. In this paper, catch, biomass, recruitment and recruitment rate, were used to compare synchronous changes for two stocks of anchovy (Engraulis ringens) from 1982 to 2004. One is the North Central Peru stock (NCP) and the other is the shared South Peru‐Northern Chile stock (SPNC). Correlation analysis demonstrated a significant association between population time series, particularly during the growing phase of the stocks. Thus, the synchronous fluctuation pattern of the two stocks is due to the recovery phase and probably driven by density‐independent effects of simultaneous favorable environmental conditions occurring in the two regions. The conclusions were: (i) both NCP and SPNC anchovy stocks are in an overall positive phase of synchrony, (ii) higher correlations in the synchronous pattern of fluctuations occurred during simultaneous increase of biomass, and (iii) short‐term fluctuations were negative when the abundance of the stock was lower and/or impacted by El Niño events.     

A 27-year study of brown trout population dynamics and exploitation in Lake Songsjøen, central Norway

From 1968–1984 (period I), a brown trout Salmo trutta , population in a 70-ha oligotrophic lake in central Norway was exploited using larger mesh gill-nets selectively removing the larger fish. From 1985–1994 (period II), intermediate sized fish were removed using smaller-mesh sizes gill-nets. Fishing mortality and CPUE were correlated positively with effort and numbers of fish >3 years old for period II. The gill-net catchability was correlated negatively with spawner biomass and number of trout >3 years old. The significant positive correlation between natural mortality and stock biomass and spawning stock biomass indicated density-dependent mortality. The significant correlation between spawning stock and recruitment described by the Ricker model, indicated density-dependent recruitment of 1-year-old trout. The fishing regimes in the two periods affected the population dynamics and density differently. Selective removal of smaller fish permitted the larger fish to survive, and was beneficial in reducing fish density and maintaining stocks at low levels, consequently, achieving the expected increase in fish growth rates.     

An individual-based model applied to the study of different fishing strategies of Pintado Pseudoplatystoma corruscans (Agassiz, 1829)

The decline in stocks of commercial fish species has been documented in several regions of the world. This decline is due partially to the effect of evolutionary pressure caused by the management of fishing activity, which reduces the size of fish after a few generations. In this paper, the population dynamics of the Pintado Pseudoplatystoma corruscans, one of the main commercial species of freshwater fish in Brazil, were simulated considering different scenarios of fishing mortality and different minimum and maximum lengths of capture. The results show that selective fishing based on the different proposed selectivity curves can result in an evolution-mediated increase in the growth rate of the fish, the biomass and the catch. This suggests that appropriate changes in Brazilian legislation can contribute to the sustainability of fisheries and to conservation of the fish stocks exploited by man.     

Demographic diversity and sustainable fisheries

Fish species are diverse. For example, some exhibit early maturation while others delay maturation, some adopt semelparous reproductive strategies while others are iteroparous, and some are long-lived and others short-lived. The diversity is likely to have profound effects on fish population dynamics, which in turn has implications for fisheries management. In this study, a simple density-dependent stage-structured population model was used to investigate the effect of life history traits on sustainable yield, population resilience, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the adult abundance. The study showed that semelparous fish can produce very high sustainable yields, near or above 50% of the carrying capacity, whereas long-lived iteroparous fish can produce very low sustainable yields, which are often much less than 10% of the carrying capacity. The difference is not because of different levels of sustainable fishing mortality rate, but because of difference in the sensitivity of the equilibrium abundance to fishing mortality. On the other hand, the resilience of fish stocks increases from delayed maturation to early maturation strategies but remains almost unchanged from semelparous to long-lived iteroparous. The CV of the adult abundance increases with increased fishing mortality, not because more individuals are recruited into the adult stage (as previous speculated), but because the mean abundance is more sensitive to fishing mortality than its standard deviation. The magnitudes of these effects vary depending on the life history strategies of the fish species involved. It is evident that any past high yield of long-lived iteroparous fish is a transient yield level, and future commercial fisheries should focus more on fish that are short-lived (including semelparous species) with high compensatory capacity.     

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long‐lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long‐lived amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture–recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context‐dependent variation in demographic processes.     

It is the economy,stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological–economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species – Atlantic salmon and European sea bass – mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process‐based ecological–economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.     

Length-dependent changes in egg size and fecundity in females, and brooded embryo size in males, of fork-tailed catfishes (Pisces: Ariidae) from the Sepik River, Papua New Guinea, with some implications for stock assessments

Data suggest that mature egg weight is positively correlated to female parent length in all five species of fork-tailed catfish studied. Embryo weight is positively correlated with the length of the male mouthbrooding parent in the four species where data are available. Non-random mate pairing is probably between fish of equivalent size. Fecundity appears to be linearly related to female fish length in all species. There is no significant correlation between fecundity and female weight, probably because egg size increases with fish size. Low fecundities and breeding behaviour suggest that recruitment is likely to be highly density-dependent and the stocks vulnerable to increased mortality (fishing). Changes in egg size with fish size may account for deviations from a cube relationship between fecundity and fish length in other species. The relevance of this to other fish stock assessments is discussed. Attention is drawn to possible changes in egg size with fish length which could affect recruitment in fished stocks, depending on the specific relationship and the length at which mature fish are caught.     

QUANTIFYING EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF MARINE FISH LARVAE: HERITABILITY,SELECTION, AND EVOLUTIONARY CONSTRAINTS

For many marine fish, intense larval mortality may provide considerable opportunity for selection, yet much less is known about the evolutionary potential of larval traits. We combined field demographic studies and manipulative experiments to estimate quantitative genetic parameters for both larval size and swimming performance for a natural population of a common coral‐reef fish, the bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus). We also examined selection on larval size by synthesizing information from published estimates of selective mortality. We introduce a method that uses the Lande–Arnold framework for examining selection on quantitative traits to empirically reconstruct adaptive landscapes. This method allows the relationship between phenotypic value and fitness components to be described across a broad range of trait values. Our results suggested that despite strong viability selection for large larvae and moderate heritability (h²= 0.29), evolutionary responses of larvae would likely be balanced by reproductive selection favoring mothers that produce more, smaller offspring. Although long‐term evolutionary responses of larval traits may be constrained by size‐number trade‐offs, our results suggest that phenotypic variation in larval size may be an ecologically important source of variability in population dynamics through effects on larval survival and recruitment to benthic populations.