Heterogeneous capture rates in low density populations and consequences for capture-recapture analysis of camera-trap data

Closed population capture-recapture analysis of camera-trap data has become the conventional method for estimating the abundance of individually recognisable cryptic species living at low densities, such as large felids. Often these estimates are the only information available to guide wildlife managers and conservation policy. Capture probability of the target species using camera traps is commonly heterogeneous and low. Published studies often report overall capture probabilities as low as 0.03 and fail to report on the level of heterogeneity in capture probability. We used simulations to study the effects of low and heterogeneous capture probability on the reliability of abundance estimates using the M_h jack-knife estimator within a closed-population capture-recapture framework. High heterogeneity in capture probability was associated with under- and over-estimates of true abundance. The use of biased abundance estimates could have serious conservation management consequences. We recommend that studies present capture frequencies of all sampled individuals so that policy makers can assess the reliability of the abundance estimates.     

Invasive Group B Streptococcal Disease in South Africa: Importance of Surveillance Methodology

Data on neonatal group B streptococcal (GBS) invasive disease burden are needed to refine prevention policies. Differences in surveillance methods and investigating for cases can lead to varying disease burden estimates. We compared the findings of laboratory-based passive surveillance for GBS disease across South Africa, and for one of the provinces compared this to a real-time, systematic, clinical surveillance in a population-defined region in Johannesburg, Soweto. Passive surveillance identified a total of 799 early-onset disease (EOD, <7 days age) and 818 LOD (late onset disease, 7–89 days age) cases nationwide. The passive surveillance provincial incidence varied for EOD (range 0.00 to 1.23/1000 live births), and was 0.03 to 1.04/1000 live births for LOD. The passive surveillance rates for Soweto, were not significantly different compared to those from the systematic surveillance (EOD 1.23 [95%CI 1.06–1.43] vs. 1.50 [95%CI 1.30–1.71], respectively, rate ratio 0.82 [95%CI 0.67–1.01]; LOD 1.04 [95% CI 0.90–1.23] vs. 1.22 [95%CI 1.05–1.42], rate ratio 0.85 [95% CI 0.68–1.07]). A review of the few cases missed in the passive system in Soweto, suggested that missing key identifiers, such as date of birth, resulted in their omission during the electronic data extraction process. Our analysis suggests that passive surveillance provides a modestly lower estimate of invasive GBS rates compared to real time sentinel-site systematic surveillance, however, this is unlikely to be the reason for the provincial variability in incidence of invasive GBS disease in South Africa. This, possibly reflects that invasive GBS disease goes undiagnosed due to issues related to access to healthcare, poor laboratory capacity and varying diagnostic procedures or empiric antibiotic treatment of neonates with suspected sepsis in the absence of attempting to making a microbiological diagnosis. An efficacious GBS vaccine for pregnant women, when available, could be used as a probe to better quantify the burden of invasive GBS disease in low-middle resourced settings such as ours. From our study passive systems are important to monitor trends over time as long as they are interpreted with caution; active systems give better detailed information and will have greater representivity when expanded to other surveillance sites.     

Known Knowns,Known Unknowns,and Unknown Unknowns: Coverage in MS Experiments

A mathematical model from ecology, namely, the capture–recapture model with a closed population and time‐varying and heterogeneous individual probabilities of capture, is implemented to model the number of protein identifications across the various cycles of a mass spectroscopy experiment. Rcapture, a package available in the R computing environment, can easily provide estimates of the cardinality of the proteome from such experiments. Alternatively, model fitting can be undertaken in other software platforms, such as Matlab, that can accommodate general linear models. It has not escaped our notice that capture–recapture models can be more broadly applied to other settings, so as to estimate the number of missing observations in an experiment.     

Determination of relative protein abundance by internally normalized ratio algorithm with antibody arrays

In this paper, we report an experimental setup and mathematical algorithm for determination of relative protein abundance from directly labeled native protein samples applied to an array of antibodies. The application of the proposed experimental system compensates internally at each array element for a number of deficiencies in array experiments such as differential labeling efficiency in dual color assay systems, differential solubility of protein molecules in dual color assay systems, and differential affinity of capture reagents toward proteins labeled with two different fluorescent dyes. This system offers full compensation for variable amounts of capture reagents on separate array structures, as well as limited compensation for nonspecific interactions between capture reagents and analytes. The proposed experimental strategy enables the use of a large number of capture reagents to develop a true multiplex analysis system that will yield complete relative protein abundance information in two biological systems.     

Symptomatic Dengue Disease in Five Southeast Asian Countries: Epidemiological Evidence from a Dengue Vaccine Trial

Dengue incidence has increased globally, but empirical burden estimates are scarce. Prospective methods are best-able to capture all severities of disease. CYD14 was an observer-blinded dengue vaccine study conducted in children 2–14 years of age in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The control group received no vaccine and resembled a prospective, observational study. We calculated the rates of dengue according to different laboratory or clinical criteria to make inferences about dengue burden, and compared with rates reported in the passive surveillance systems to calculate expansion factors which describe under-reporting. Over 6,933 person-years of observation in the control group there were 319 virologically confirmed dengue cases, a crude attack rate of 4.6%/year. Of these, 92 cases (28.8%) were clinically diagnosed as dengue fever or dengue hemorrhagic fever by investigators and 227 were not, indicating that most symptomatic disease fails to satisfy existing case definitions. When examining different case definitions, there was an inverse relationship between clinical severity and observed incidence rates. CYD14’s active surveillance system captured a greater proportion of symptomatic dengue than national passive surveillance systems, giving rise to expansion factors ranging from 0.5 to 31.7. This analysis showed substantial, unpredictable and variable under-reporting of symptomatic dengue, even within a controlled clinical trial environment, and emphasizes that burden estimates are highly sensitive to case definitions. These data will assist in generating disease burden estimates and have important policy implications when considering the introduction and health economics of dengue prevention and control interventions.     

Imperfect detection distorts depth‐related trends in marine macrofaunal species richness

Ecology and biodiversity research are underpinned by species richness patterns and their environmental drivers. However, a key topic in this discussion is the accuracy of these patterns which are greatly dependent on species detection probabilities. Due to variations in detection of species, true ecological patterns may be distorted. This is particularly true for subtidal macro‐infaunal communities. We tested three hypothesized relationships between marine benthic macrofaunal diversity and depth using species richness per site estimated with a capture–recapture heterogeneity model that accounts for variable detection probabilities. These metrics were based on data from 42 replicated sites across the continental shelf of the Southern Benguela. Average detection probability decreased with greater depth but species richness increased along the same depth gradient. The conflation of these trends in observed diversity data resulted in a positively near‐linear depth–diversity relationship, while accounting for variable species detection revealed a much stronger relationship. Ignoring species detection in ecosystems with imperfect detection could therefore distort species richness patterns, which has implications for ecological theory, management and conservation.     

Assessment of the Chad guinea worm surveillance information system: A pivotal foundation for eradication

BackgroundIn the absence of a vaccine or pharmacological treatment, prevention and control of Guinea worm disease is dependent on timely identification and containment of cases to interrupt transmission. The Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) surveillance system detects and monitors Guinea worm disease in both humans and animals. Although Guinea worm cases in humans has declined, the discovery of canine infections in dogs in Chad has posed a significant challenge to eradication efforts. A foundational information system that supports the surveillance activities with modern data management practices is needed to support continued program efficacy.MethodsWe sought to assess the current CGWEP surveillance and information system to identify gaps and redundancies and propose system improvements. We reviewed documentation, consulted with subject matter experts and stakeholders, inventoried datasets to map data elements and information flow, and mapped data management processes. We used the Information Value Cycle (IVC) and Data-Information System-Context (DISC) frameworks to help understand the information generated and identify gaps.ResultsFindings from this study identified areas for improvement, including the need for consolidation of forms that capture the same demographic variables, which could be accomplished with an electronic data capture system. Further, the mental models (conceptual frameworks) IVC and DISC highlighted the need for more detailed, standardized workflows specifically related to information management.ConclusionsBased on these findings, we proposed a four-phased roadmap for centralizing data systems and transitioning to an electronic data capture system. These included: development of a data governance plan, transition to electronic data entry and centralized data storage, transition to a relational database, and cloud-based integration. The method and outcome of this assessment could be used by other neglected tropical disease programs looking to transition to modern electronic data capture systems.     

DNA methylation provides insight into intergenerational risk for preterm birth in African Americans

African Americans are at increased risk for spontaneous preterm birth (PTB). Though PTB is heritable, genetic studies have not identified variants that account for its intergenerational risk, prompting the hypothesis that epigenetic factors may also contribute. The objective of this study was to evaluate DNA methylation from maternal leukocytes to identify patterns specific to PTB and its intergenerational risk. DNA from peripheral leukocytes from African American women that delivered preterm (24–34 weeks; N = 16) or at term (39–41 weeks; N = 24) was assessed for DNA methylation using the HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. In maternal samples, 17,829 CpG sites associated with PTB, but no CpG site remained associated after correction for multiple comparisons. Examination of paired maternal-fetal samples identified 5,171 CpG sites in which methylation of maternal samples correlated with methylation of her respective fetus (FDR < 0.05). These correlated sites were enriched for association with PTB in maternal leukocytes. The majority of correlated CpG sites could be attributed to one or more genetic variants. They were also significantly more likely to be in genes involved in metabolic, cardiovascular, and immune pathways, suggesting a role for genetic and environmental contributions to PTB risk and chronic disease. The results of this study may provide insight into the factors underlying intergenerational risk for PTB and its consequences.     

Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: new perspectives on an old problem

There is a clear need for improved epidemic malaria surveillance mechanisms in areas prone to the disease. Epidemiological surveillance systems are rarely able to provide information in a sufficiently timely manner for adequate epidemic response. This is especially true in African countries where surveillance is poorly developed, and particularly so in remote regions of unstable malaria such as desert fringes. There is long standing evidence linking climatic variability and epidemic risk. The last ten years have seen significant developments in Environmental Information System (EIS) for a range of natural resource management purposes. The routine information products from these systems have been shown to be both spatially and temporally related to malaria transmission indicators across the African continent. EIS may therefore provide a useful and cost effective input to epidemic malaria control planning and response.     

Detection of avian influenza viruses from shorebirds: evaluation of surveillance and testing approaches

Although influenza A viruses have been isolated from numerous shorebird species (Family: Scolopacidae) worldwide, our understanding of natural history of these viruses in this diverse group is incomplete. Gaining this information can be complicated by sampling difficulties related to live capture, the need for large sample sizes related to a potentially low prevalence of infection, and the need to maintain flexibility in diagnostic approaches related to varied capabilities and resources. To provide information relevant to improving sampling and testing of shorebirds for influenza A viruses, we retrospectively evaluated a combined data set from Delaware Bay, USA, collected from 2000 to 2009. Our results indicate that prevalence trends and subtype diversity can be effectively determined by either direct sampling of birds or indirect sampling of feces; however, the extent of detected subtype diversity is a function of the number of viruses recovered during that year. Even in cases where a large number of viruses are identified, an underestimate of true subtype diversity is likely. Influenza A virus isolation from Ruddy Turnstones can be enhanced by testing both cloacal and tracheal samples, and matrix real-time PCR can be used as an effective screening tool. Serologic testing to target species of interest also has application to shorebird surveillance. Overall, all of the sampling and diagnostic approaches have utility as applied to shorebird surveillance, but all are associated with inherent biases that need to be considered when comparing results from independent studies.     

Improving our understanding of demographic monitoring: avian breeding productivity in a tropical dry forest

The ratio of juvenile to adult birds in mist‐net samples is used to monitor avian productivity, but whether it is a “true” estimate of per capita productivity or an index proportional to productivity depends on whether capture probability is not age‐dependent (true estimate) or age difference in capture probability is consistent among years (index). Better understanding of the processes affecting age‐ and year‐specific capture probabilities is needed to advance the application of constant‐effort mist‐netting for monitoring and conservation, particularly in many tropical settings where capture rates are often low. We ranked members of the avian community by capture frequencies, determined if temporary emigration influenced the availability of birds to be captured, and assessed the distribution of birds relative to mist‐nets and the parity between capture‐based productivity estimates and number of fledglings in nest plots in a tropical dry forest in Puerto Rico in 2009 and 2010. Few captures characterized the community of 25 resident species and, when estimable, capture probabilities were low, particularly for juveniles (typically < 0.1). Negative trends in capture probability, temporary emigration, and the distribution of birds suggest that avoidance of mist‐nets influenced capture rates in our study. Increasing mist‐net coverage or moving mist‐nets between sampling periods could increase capture rates. The number of fledglings observed in nest plots (25 ha/plot) did not correlate well with capture‐derived estimates (20 ha/net stations), suggesting the presence of immigrants or failure to find all nests. Our results suggest that indices of breeding productivity from mist‐netting data may track temporal changes in productivity, but such data likely do not reflect “true” productivity in most cases unless age‐specific differences in capture probability are incorporated into estimates. Pilot studies should be conducted to evaluate capture rates and the spatial extent sampled by mist‐nets to improve sampling design and inferences before informing decisions.     

Natural flow regime,temperature and the composition and richness of invertebrate assemblages in streams of the western United States

1. We tested how strongly aquatic macroinvertebrate taxa richness and composition were associated with natural variation in both flow regime and stream temperatures across streams of the western United States. 2. We used long‐term flow records from 543 minimally impacted gauged streams to quantify 12 streamflow variables thought to be ecologically important. A principal component analysis reduced the dimensionality of the data from 12 variables to seven principal component (PC) factors that characterised statistically independent aspects of streamflow: (1) zero flow days, (2) flow magnitude, (3) predictability, (4) flood duration, (5) seasonality, (6) flashiness and (7) base flow. K‐means clustering was used to group streams into 4–8 hydrologically different classes based on these seven factors. 3. We also used empirical models to estimate mean annual, mean summer and mean winter stream temperatures at each stream site. We then used invertebrate data from 63 sites to develop Random Forest models to predict taxa richness and taxon‐specific probabilities of capture at a site from flow and temperature. We used the predicted taxon‐specific probabilities of capture to estimate how well predicted assemblages matched observed assemblages as measured by RIVPACS‐type observed/expected (O/E) indices and Bray–Curtis dissimilarities. 4. Macroinvertebrate taxon richness was only weakly associated with streamflow and temperature variables, implying that other factors more strongly influenced taxa richness. 5. In contrast to taxa richness, taxa composition was strongly associated with streamflow and temperature. Predictions of taxa composition (O/E and Bray–Curtis) were most precise when both temperature and streamflow PC factors were used, although predictions based on either streamflow PC factors or temperature alone were also better than null model predictions. Of the seven aspects of the streamflow regime we examined, variation in baseflow conditions appeared to be most directly associated with invertebrate biotic composition. We were also able to predict assemblage composition from the conditional probabilities of hydrological class membership nearly as well as Random Forests models that were based directly on continuous PC factors. 6. Our results have direct implication for understanding the relative importance of streamflow and temperature in regulating the structure and composition of stream assemblages and for improving the accuracy and precision of biological assessments.     

Population size estimation in a two-list surveillance system with a discrete covariate

Summary .   Capture–recapture methods are widely adopted to estimate sizes of populations of public health interest using information from surveillance systems. For a two-list surveillance system with a discrete covariate, a population is divided into several subpopulations. A unified framework is proposed in which the logits of presence probabilities are decomposed into case effects and list effects. The estimators for the whole population and subpopulation sizes, their adjusted versions, and asymptotic standard errors admit closed-form expressions. Asymptotic and bootstrap individual and simultaneous confidence intervals are easily constructed. Conditional likelihood ratio tests are used to select one from three possible models. Real examples are investigated.     

Association between environmental and climatic risk factors and the spatial distribution of cystic and alveolar echinococcosis in Kyrgyzstan

BackgroundCystic and alveolar echinococcosis (CE and AE) are neglected tropical diseases caused by Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato and E. multilocularis, and are emerging zoonoses in Kyrgyzstan. In this country, the spatial distribution of CE and AE surgical incidence in 2014-2016 showed marked heterogeneity across communities, suggesting the presence of ecological determinants underlying CE and AE distributions.Methodology/Principal findingsFor this reason, in this study we assessed potential associations between community-level confirmed primary CE (no.=2359) or AE (no.=546) cases in 2014-2016 in Kyrgyzstan and environmental and climatic variables derived from satellite-remote sensing datasets using conditional autoregressive models. We also mapped CE and AE relative risk. The number of AE cases was negatively associated with 10-year lag mean annual temperature. Although this time lag should not be considered as an exact measurement but with associated uncertainty, it is consistent with the estimated 10–15-year latency following AE infection. No associations were detected for CE. We also identified several communities at risk for CE or AE where no disease cases were reported in the study period.Conclusions/SignificanceOur findings support the hypothesis that CE is linked to an anthropogenic cycle and is less affected by environmental risk factors compared to AE, which is believed to result from spillover from a wild life cycle. As CE was not affected by factors we investigated, hence control should not have a geographical focus. In contrast, AE risk areas identified in this study without reported AE cases should be targeted for active disease surveillance in humans. This active surveillance would confirm or exclude AE transmission which might not be reported with the present passive surveillance system. These areas should also be targeted for ecological investigations in the animal hosts.     

A Space–Time Scan Statistic for Detecting Emerging Outbreaks

Summary As a major analytical method for outbreak detection, Kulldorff's space–time scan statistic (2001, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 164, 61–72) has been implemented in many syndromic surveillance systems. Since, however, it is based on circular windows in space, it has difficulty correctly detecting actual noncircular clusters. Takahashi et al. (2008, International Journal of Health Geographics 7 , 14) proposed a flexible space–time scan statistic with the capability of detecting noncircular areas. It seems to us, however, that the detection of the most likely cluster defined in these space–time scan statistics is not the same as the detection of localized emerging disease outbreaks because the former compares the observed number of cases with the conditional expected number of cases. In this article, we propose a new space–time scan statistic which compares the observed number of cases with the unconditional expected number of cases, takes a time‐to‐time variation of Poisson mean into account, and implements an outbreak model to capture localized emerging disease outbreaks more timely and correctly. The proposed models are illustrated with data from weekly surveillance of the number of absentees in primary schools in Kitakyushu‐shi, Japan, 2006.     

Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

Summary Ecologists applying capture–recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture–recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture–recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture–recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner‐tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.     

Fetal DNA Methylation Associates with Early Spontaneous Preterm Birth and Gestational Age

Spontaneous preterm birth (PTB, <37 weeks gestation) is a major public health concern, and children born preterm have a higher risk of morbidity and mortality throughout their lives. Recent studies suggest that fetal DNA methylation of several genes varies across a range of gestational ages (GA), but it is not yet clear if fetal epigenetic changes associate with PTB. The objective of this study is to interrogate methylation patterns across the genome in fetal leukocyte DNA from African Americans with early PTB (24^1/7–34^0/7 weeks; N = 22) or term births (39^0/7–40^6/7weeks; N = 28) and to evaluate the association of each CpG site with PTB and GA. DNA methylation was assessed across the genome with the HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. For each individual sample and CpG site, the proportion of DNA methylation was estimated. The associations between methylation and PTB or GA were evaluated by fitting a separate linear model for each CpG site, adjusting for relevant covariates. Overall, 29 CpG sites associated with PTB (FDR<.05; 5.7×10⁻¹⁰<p<2.9×10⁻⁶) independent of GA. Also, 9637 sites associated with GA (FDR<.05; 9.5×10⁻¹⁶<p<1.0×10⁻³), with 61.8% decreasing in methylation with shorter GA. GA-associated CpG sites were depleted in the CpG islands of their respective genes (p<2.2×10⁻¹⁶). Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) supported enrichment of GA-associated CpG sites in genes that play a role in embryonic development as well as the extracellular matrix. Additionally, this study replicated the association of several CpG sites associated with gestational age in other studies (CRHBP, PIK3CD and AVP). Dramatic differences in fetal DNA methylation are evident in fetuses born preterm versus at term, and the patterns established at birth may provide insight into the long-term consequences associated with PTB.     

Using Mixtures to Model Heterogeneity in Ecological Capture‐Recapture Studies

Modelling heterogeneity of capture is an important problem in estimating animal abundance from capturerecapture data, with underestimation of abundance occurring if different animals have intrinsically high or low capture probabilities. Mixture models are useful in many cases to model the heterogeneity. We summarise mixture model results for closed populations, using a skink data set for illustration. New mixture models for heterogeneous open populations are discussed, and a closed population model is shown to have new and potentially effective applications in community analysis. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Enhancing TB Case Detection: Experience in Offering Upfront Xpert MTB/RIF Testing to Pediatric Presumptive TB and DR TB Cases for Early Rapid Diagnosis of Drug Sensitive and Drug Resistant TB

Background

Diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in children is challenging due to difficulties in obtaining good quality sputum specimens as well as the paucibacillary nature of disease. Globally a large proportion of pediatric tuberculosis (TB) cases are diagnosed based only on clinical findings. Xpert MTB/RIF, a highly sensitive and specific rapid tool, offers a promising solution in addressing these challenges. This study presents the results from pediatric groups taking part in a large demonstration study wherein Xpert MTB/RIF testing replaced smear microscopy for all presumptive PTB cases in public health facilities across India.

Methods

The study covered a population of 8.8 million across 18 programmatic sub-district level tuberculosis units (TU), with one Xpert MTB/RIF platform established at each study TU. Pediatric presumptive PTB cases (both TB and Drug Resistant TB (DR-TB)) accessing any public health facilities in study area were prospectively enrolled and tested on Xpert MTB/RIF following a standardized diagnostic algorithm.

Results

4,600 pediatric presumptive pulmonary TB cases were enrolled. 590 (12.8%, CI 11.8–13.8) pediatric PTB were diagnosed. Overall 10.4% (CI 9.5–11.2) of presumptive PTB cases had positive results by Xpert MTB/RIF, compared with 4.8% (CI 4.2–5.4) who had smear-positive results. Upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing of presumptive PTB and presumptive DR-TB cases resulted in diagnosis of 79 and 12 rifampicin resistance cases, respectively. Positive predictive value (PPV) for rifampicin resistance detection was high (98%, CI 90.1–99.9), with no statistically significant variation with respect to past history of treatment.

Conclusion

Upfront access to Xpert MTB/RIF testing in pediatric presumptive PTB cases was associated with a two-fold increase in bacteriologically-confirmed PTB, and increased detection of rifampicin-resistant TB cases under routine operational conditions across India. These results suggest that routine Xpert MTB/RIF testing is a promising solution to present-day challenges in the diagnosis of PTB in pediatric patients.     

Application of space technologies to the surveillance and modelling of waterborne diseases

Earth observing satellites, global positioning and geographic information systems are new tools that currently enable the scientific community to integrate ecological, environmental and medical data to develop predictive models for disease surveillance and modelling. A number of investigators have explored remotely sensed environmental factors that might be associated with waterborne disease ecology and human transmission risk. However, health specialists have not been fully familiarized with the capabilities of space technology, and in some cases it has not proved to be the wonder tool that scientists expected. New satellite capabilities and new sensors now allow exploration of risk factors previously beyond the capabilities of remote sensing and put researchers in a position to analyze the effects of environment on disease outbreaks.