An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison sage‐grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data

Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large‐scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short‐term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long‐term population index data available for Gunnison sage‐grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage‐grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.     

Seasonal reproductive costs contribute to reduced survival of female greater sage‐grouse

Tradeoffs among demographic traits are a central component of life history theory. We investigated tradeoffs between reproductive effort and survival in female greater sage‐grouse breeding in the American Great Basin, while also considering reproductive heterogeneity by examining covariance among current and future reproductive success. We analyzed survival and reproductive histories from 328 individual female greater sage‐grouse captured between 2003 and 2011, and examined the effect of reproductive effort on survival and future reproduction. Monthly survival of females was variable within years, and this within‐year variation was associated with distinct biological seasons. Monthly survival was greatest during the winter (November–March; Φ_W= 0.99 ± 0.001 SE), and summer (June–July; Φ_S= 0.98 ± 0.01 SE), and lower during nesting (April–May; Φ_N= 0.93 ± 0.02 SE) and fall (August–October; Φ_F= 0.92 ± 0.02 SE). Successful reproduction was associated with reduced monthly survival during summer and fall, and this effect was greatest during fall. Females that successfully fledged chicks had lower annual survival (0.47 ± 0.05 SE) than females who were not successful (0.64 ± 0.04 SE). Annual survival did not vary across years, consistent with a slow‐paced life history strategy in greater sage‐grouse. In contrast, reproductive success varied widely, and was positively correlated with annual rainfall. We found evidence for heterogeneity among females with respect to reproductive success; compared with unsuccessful females, females that raised a brood successfully in year t were more than twice as likely to be successful in year t+ 1. Female greater sage‐grouse incur costs to survival associated with reproduction, however, variation in quality among females may override costs to subsequent reproductive output.     

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage‐grouse

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre‐ and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio‐marked greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site‐level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage‐grouse may have indirect benefits to survival during postfledging, due to carryover effects between the two life phases.     

Survival,Movements, and Reproduction of Translocated Greater Sage-Grouse in Strawberry Valley,Utah

Abstract Translocations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have been attempted in 7 states and one Canadian province with very little success. To recover a small remnant population and test the efficacy of sage-grouse translocations, we captured and transported 137 adult female sage-grouse from 2 source populations to a release site in Strawberry Valley, Utah, USA, during March-April 2003–2005. The resident population of sage-grouse in Strawberry Valley was approximately 150 breeding birds prior to the release. We radiomarked each female and documented survival, movements, reproductive effort, flocking with resident grouse, and lek attendance. We used Program MARK to calculate annual survival of translocated females in the first year after release, which averaged 0.60 (95% CI = 0.515-0.681). Movements of translocated females were within current and historic sage-grouse habitat in Strawberry Valley, and we detected no grouse outside of the study area. Nesting propensity for first (newly translocated) and second (surviving) year females was 39% and 73%, respectively. Observed nest success of all translocated females during the study was 67%. By the end of their first year in Strawberry Valley, 100% of the living translocated sage-grouse were in flocks with resident sage-grouse. The translocated grouse attended the same lek as the birds with which they were grouped. In 2006, the peak male count for the only remaining active lek in Strawberry Valley was almost 4 times (135 M) the 6-year pretranslocation (1998–2003) average peak attendance of 36 males (range 24–50 M). Translocations can be an effective management tool to increase small populations of greater sage-grouse when conducted during the breeding season and before target populations have been extirpated.     

Temporal changes in age and sex ratios of forest grouse harvested in northeastern oregon

Ratio of immature (young of the year) grouse to adult birds (I:A) in the harvest of upland game birds is commonly used as an index to annual reproduction; however, I:A ratios can vary as the season progresses producing biased estimates. We analyzed I:A ratios in the daily harvest of dusky grouse (Dendragopus obscurus) and ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) in northeastern Oregon over 28 years (1981–2008) and found that I:A ratios in the harvest declined for both species as the hunting season progressed. We also analyzed ratios of adult female to adult male (AF:AM) grouse to determine if female and male grouse were harvested in equal numbers throughout the harvest season. We found that more males than females of both species were harvested, but that AF:AM ratio of both dusky and ruffed grouse did not change during most of the hunting season. Approximately 50% of the annual harvest occurred during the first 14 days of the hunting season. Therefore, we recommend using the ratios of I:A birds in the first 14 days of the harvest season as the best index to annual reproduction of forest grouse in northeast Oregon. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Male‐skewed adult sex ratio,survival, mating opportunity and annual productivity in the Snowy Plover Charadrius alexandrinus

Sex differences in adult mortality may be responsible for male‐skewed adult sex ratios and male‐skewed parental care in some birds. Because a surplus of breeding males has been reported in serially polyandrous populations of Snowy Plover Charadrius alexandrinus, we examined sex ratio, early‐season nesting opportunities, adult survival and annual reproductive success of a Snowy Plover population at Monterey Bay, California. We tested the hypotheses that male adult survival was greater than female survival and that a sex difference in adult survival led to a skewed adult sex ratio, different mating opportunities and different annual productivity between the sexes. Virtually all females left chicks from their first broods to the care of the male and re‐nested with a new mate. As a result, females had time to parent three successful nesting attempts during the lengthy breeding season, whereas males had time for only two successful attempts. Among years, the median population of nesting Plovers was 96 males and 84 females (median difference = 9), resulting in one extra male per eight pairs. The number of potential breeders without mates during the early nesting period each year was higher in males than in females. Adult male survival (0.734 ± 0.028 se) was higher than female survival (0.693 ± 0.030 se) in top‐ranked models. Annually, females parented more successful clutches and fledged more chicks than their first mates of the season. Our results suggest that in C. alexandrinus a sex difference in adult survival results in a male‐skewed sex ratio, which creates more nesting opportunities and greater annual productivity for females than for males.     

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage‐grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage‐grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage‐grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage‐grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage‐grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad‐scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage‐grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage‐grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint–index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage‐grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage‐grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage‐grouse populations. Our joint–index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.     

Phenology largely explains taller grass at successful nests in greater sage‐grouse

Much interest lies in the identification of manageable habitat variables that affect key vital rates for species of concern. For ground‐nesting birds, vegetation surrounding the nest may play an important role in mediating nest success by providing concealment from predators. Height of grasses surrounding the nest is thought to be a driver of nest survival in greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse), a species that has experienced widespread population declines throughout their range. However, a growing body of the literature has found that widely used field methods can produce misleading inference on the relationship between grass height and nest success. Specifically, it has been demonstrated that measuring concealment following nest fate (failure or hatch) introduces a temporal bias whereby successful nests are measured later in the season, on average, than failed nests. This sampling bias can produce inference suggesting a positive effect of grass height on nest survival, though the relationship arises due to the confounding effect of plant phenology, not an effect on predation risk. To test the generality of this finding for sage‐grouse, we reanalyzed existing datasets comprising >800 sage‐grouse nests from three independent studies across the range where there was a positive relationship found between grass height and nest survival, including two using methods now known to be biased. Correcting for phenology produced equivocal relationships between grass height and sage‐grouse nest survival. Viewed in total, evidence for a ubiquitous biological effect of grass height on sage‐grouse nest success across time and space is lacking. In light of these findings, a reevaluation of land management guidelines emphasizing specific grass height targets to promote nest success may be merited.     

West Nile virus: pending crisis for greater sage-grouse

Scientists have feared that emerging infectious diseases could complicate efforts to conserve rare and endangered species, but quantifying impacts has proven difficult until now. We report unexpected impacts of West Nile virus (WNv) on radio‐marked greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species that has declined 45–80% and is endangered in Canada and under current consideration for federal listing in the US. We show that WNv reduced late‐summer survival an average of 25% in four radio‐marked populations in the western US and Canada. Serum from 112 sage‐grouse collected after the outbreak show that none had antibodies, suggesting that they lack resistance. The spread of WNv represents a significant new stressor on sage‐grouse and probably other at‐risk species. While managing habitat might lessen its impact on sage‐grouse populations, WNv has left wildlife and public health officials scrambling to address surface water and vector control issues in western North America.     

Environmental correlates of annual survival differ between two ecologically similar and congeneric owls

Understanding how survival is affected by the environment is essential to gain insight into population dynamics and the evolution of life‐history traits as well as to identify environmental selection pressures. However, we still have little understanding of the relative effect of different environmental factors and their interactions on demographic traits and population dynamics. Here we used two long‐term, individual‐based datasets on Tawny Owl Strix aluco (1981–2010) and Ural Owl S. uralensis (1986–2010) to undertake capture‐mark‐recapture analysis of annual survival of adult females in response to three biologically meaningful environmental variables and their two‐way interactions. Despite the similar ecology of these two species, their survival was associated with different and uncorrelated environmental drivers. The main correlate of Tawny Owl survival was an inverse association with snow depth (winter severity). For Ural Owl, high food (vole) abundance improved survival during years with deep snow, but was less important during years with little snow. In addition, Ural Owl survival was strongly density‐dependent, whereas Tawny Owl survival was not. Our findings advise caution in extrapolating demographic inferences from one species to another, even when they are very closely related and ecologically similar. Analyses including only one or few potential environmental drivers of a species' survival may lead to incomplete conclusions because survival may be affected by several factors and their interactions.     

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland’s warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to analyze two mark–recapture datasets: 2006–2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003–2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland’s warbler and other Neotropical–Nearctic migratory bird species.     

Sagebrush treatments influence annual population change for greater sage‐grouse

Vegetation management practices have been applied worldwide to enhance habitats for a variety of wildlife species. Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata spp.) communities, iconic to western North America, have been treated to restore herbaceous understories through chemical, mechanical, and prescribed burning practices thought to improve habitat conditions for greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and other species. Although the response of structural attributes of sagebrush communities to treatments is well understood, there is a need to identify how treatments influence wildlife population dynamics. We investigated the influence of vegetation treatments occurring in Wyoming, United States, from 1994 to 2012 on annual sage‐grouse population change using yearly male sage‐grouse lek counts. We investigated this response across 1, 3, 5, and 10‐year post‐treatment lags to evaluate how the amount of treated sagebrush communities and time since treatment influenced population change, while accounting for climate, wildfire, and anthropogenic factors. With the exception of chemical treatments exhibiting a positive association with sage‐grouse population change 11 years after implementation, population response to treatments was either neutral or negative for at least 11 years following treatments. Our work supports a growing body of research advocating against treating big sagebrush habitats for sage‐grouse, particularly in Wyoming big sagebrush (A. t. wyomingensis). Loss and fragmentation of sagebrush habitats has been identified as a significant threat for remaining sage‐grouse populations. Because sagebrush may take decades to recover following treatments, we recommend practitioners use caution when designing projects to alter remaining habitats, especially when focused on habitat requirements for one life stage and a single species.     

Effects of variable spring harvest regimes on annual survival and recovery rates of male wild turkeys in Southeast Louisiana

Spring harvest is a primary mortality factor for male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris), but the relationship between spring harvest regimes and annual survival is not well understood. We banded 462 male wild turkeys from 1989 to 2007 in southeastern Louisiana to estimate annual survival and band recovery rates relative to spring harvest. We evaluated these parameters under a liberal harvest season (3-bird limit; 1989–1997) and a reduced conservative harvest season (2-bird limit; 2000–2007). Estimated recovery rates during the liberal season were 0.75 (SE = 0.05) for adults and 0.63 (SE = 0.04) for juveniles, and recovery rates during the conservative season were 0.61 (SE = 0.04) and 0.48 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Annual survival averaged 0.16 (SE = 0.05) and 0.43 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively, during the liberal season. Conversely, during the conservative season, annual survival averaged 0.31 (SE = 0.05) and 0.56 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Our findings suggest that bag limit reductions combined with a reduction in season length contributed to a 2-fold increase in annual survival for male wild turkeys. We contend that male wild turkeys were likely over harvested on our study area during the liberal harvest season, which contributed to exceptionally low annual survival rates. Managers should attempt to assess survival rates of male wild turkeys in harvested populations to properly manage spring harvest and develop appropriate harvest limits. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Seasonal survival of young and adult black grouse females in boreal forests

Direct demographical information from different populations of species in concern may reveal processes to target by management. We estimated seasonal survival rates using data from 253 individual females in a continuous population of black grouse Tetrao tetrix in Central Finland in 2005–2007. The information theoretic model selection included the effects of age class, ecological season, year, and their relevant interactions. We showed a clear difference in the survival of young and older females during late winter, a decrease in female survival during spring, and variation between the study years. The most frequent proximate mortality cause was avian predation, and the avian predation rate was highest in spring.     

Survival,fidelity, and recovery rates of white-winged doves in Texas

Management of migratory birds at the national level has historically relied on regulatory boundaries for definition of harvest restrictions and estimation of demographic parameters. Most species of migratory game birds are not expanding their ranges, so migratory corridors are approximately fixed. White-winged doves (Zenaida asiatica), however, have undergone significant variation in population structure with marked range expansion occurring in Texas, and range contraction in Arizona, during the last 30 years. Because >85% of white-winged dove harvest in the United States (approx. 1.3 million annually) now occurs in Texas, information on vital rates of expanding white-winged dove populations is necessary for informed management. We used band recovery and mark–recapture data to investigate variation in survival and harvest across 3 geographic strata for white-winged doves banded in the pre-hunting season in Texas during 2007–2010. We banded 60,742 white-winged doves, recovered 2,458 bands via harvest reporting, and recaptured 455 known-age birds between 2007 and 2010. The best supporting model found some evidence for geographic differences in survival rates among strata (A–C) in both hatch-year (juvenile; A = 0.205 [SE = 0.0476], B = 0.213 [SE = 0.0278], C = 0.364 [SE = 0.0254]) and after-hatch year (adult; A = 0.483 [SE = 0.0775], B = 0.465 [SE = 0.0366], C = 0.538 [SE = 0.251]) birds. White-winged doves had a low probability of moving among strata (0.009) or being recaptured (0.002) across all strata. Harvest recovery rates were concordant with estimates for other dove species, but were variable across geographic strata. Based on our results, harvest management strategies for white-winged doves in Texas and elsewhere should consider differences in population vital rates among geographic strata. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Nest Success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in Colorado,USA

Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of concern for which little demographic information exists. To help fill this information gap, we investigated factors affecting nest success in two populations of Gunnison Sage-Grouse. We assessed the relative effects of (1) vegetation characteristics (e.g., shrub height, shrub cover, grass cover, and grass height), (2) temporal factors (e.g., year, timing of incubation initiation, and nest age), (3) precipitation, and (4) age of the nesting female (yearling or adult) on nest success rates. We found 177 nests in the Gunnison Basin population (that contains 85–90% of the species) from 2005–2010 and 20 nests in the San Miguel population (that contains < 10% of the species) from 2007–2010. Temporal factors had the greatest impact on nest success compared to vegetation characteristics, precipitation, and female age. Nest success varied considerably among years ranging from 4.0%-60.2% in Gunnison Basin and from 12.9%- 51.9% in San Miguel. Nests that were initiated earlier in the breeding season had higher nest success (at least one egg hatches). Daily nest survival rates decreased during the course of incubation. None of the vegetation characteristics we examined were strongly related to nest success.     

Influence of Density and Climate on Population Dynamics of a Large Herbivore Under Harsh Environmental Conditions

ABSTRACT Dynamics of herbivore populations can be influenced both by density-dependent processes and climate. We used age-at-harvest data for adult female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) collected over 23 years to estimate survival and reproduction by age class and to identify effects of environmental factors. The study population was located on Anticosti Island (QC, Canada), at the northern limit of the species' range; the population was at high density, and the landscape had scarce forage and abundant snow during winter. Despite severe environmental conditions, population growth apparently increased during the study; adult survival was similar to other populations, although reproduction appeared lower. Winter severity was not related to survival, but density affected adult female survival. Density at estrus was the main factor influencing reproduction of 2- and 3–4-year-olds and also affected reproduction of prime-aged females (5–9-yr-olds), but not of older females. Reproductive rate of younger females was influenced by environmental conditions in autumn, such as high density or snow conditions that limited forage availability. Reproductive success of 5–9- and ≥10-year-old females appeared dependent on spring conditions favoring high-quality forage, probably through effects on neonatal survival. Relative to other studies on northern ungulates, demographic processes in our study appeared to be more affected by autumn and spring climate, in addition to population density, than by winter climate. We thus propose that population density, as well as autumn and spring climate, should be considered in management strategies. Harvest data offered a unique opportunity to study forest ungulates, for which individual monitoring is rarely possible.     

Modeling ecological minimum requirements for distribution of greater sage‐grouse leks: implications for population connectivity across their western range,U.S.A

Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (Bonaparte) currently occupy approximately half of their historical distribution across western North America. Sage‐grouse are a candidate for endangered species listing due to habitat and population fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulation to control development in critical areas. Conservation planning would benefit from accurate maps delineating required habitats and movement corridors. However, developing a species distribution model that incorporates the diversity of habitats used by sage‐grouse across their widespread distribution has statistical and logistical challenges. We first identified the ecological minimums limiting sage‐grouse, mapped similarity to the multivariate set of minimums, and delineated connectivity across a 920,000 km² region. We partitioned a Mahalanobis D² model of habitat use into k separate additive components each representing independent combinations of species–habitat relationships to identify the ecological minimums required by sage‐grouse. We constructed the model from abiotic, land cover, and anthropogenic variables measured at leks (breeding) and surrounding areas within 5 km. We evaluated model partitions using a random subset of leks and historic locations and selected D² (k = 10) for mapping a habitat similarity index (HSI). Finally, we delineated connectivity by converting the mapped HSI to a resistance surface. Sage‐grouse required sagebrush‐dominated landscapes containing minimal levels of human land use. Sage‐grouse used relatively arid regions characterized by shallow slopes, even terrain, and low amounts of forest, grassland, and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Most populations were interconnected although several outlying populations were isolated because of distance or lack of habitat corridors for exchange. Land management agencies currently are revising land‐use plans and designating critical habitat to conserve sage‐grouse and avoid endangered species listing. Our results identifying attributes important for delineating habitats or modeling connectivity will facilitate conservation and management of landscapes important for supporting current and future sage‐grouse populations.     

Comparing the seasonal survival of resident and migratory oystercatchers: carry‐over effects of habitat quality and weather conditions

Events happening in one season can affect life‐history traits at (the) subsequent season(s) by carry‐over effects. Wintering conditions are known to affect breeding success, but few studies have investigated carry‐over effects on survival. The Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus is a coastal wader with sedentary populations at temperate sites and migratory populations in northern breeding grounds of Europe. We pooled continental European ringing‐recovery datasets from 1975 to 2000 to estimate winter and summer survival rates of migrant and resident populations and to investigate long‐term effects of winter habitat changes. During mild climatic periods, adults of both migratory and resident populations exhibited survival rates 2% lower in summer than in winter. Severe winters reduced survival rates (down to 25% reduction) and were often followed by a decline in survival during the following summer, via short‐term carry‐over effects. Habitat changes in the Dutch wintering grounds caused a reduction in food stocks, leading to reduced survival rates, particularly in young birds. Therefore, wintering habitat changes resulted in long‐term (>10 years) 8.7 and 9.4% decrease in adult annual survival of migrant and resident populations respectively. Studying the impact of carry‐over effects is crucial for understanding the life history of migratory birds and the development of conservation measures.