The quality and the timing hypotheses evaluated using data on great reed warblers

The seasonal decline in reproductive success observed in many animal species may be caused by timing per se (timing hypothesis) or by variation in phenotypic quality between early and late breeding females (quality hypothesis). To distinguish between these two hypotheses, several studies of birds have used clutch removal experiments to manipulate breeding date. However, removal experiments also increase the females' previous reproductive effort due to the production of an extra clutch and a longer incubation period. According to life-history theory an increase in reproductive effort lowers future reproduction. Hence, life-history theory predicts lowered success of replacement broods for other reasons than expected from the timing hypothesis. Female great reed warblers, Acrocephalus arundinaceus , studied in Sweden are frequently exposed to nest predation, after which many lay replacement clutches. In order to examine possible effects of previous reproductive effort on different fitness components, we analysed the re-laying frequency and the reproductive success of replacement broods in relation to time of the season and previous reproductive effort (measured as the length of the previous breeding attempt, LPB). In clutches of re-laying females both the number of fledglings and the proportion of recruits were negatively correlated with LPB, whereas re-laying frequency and clutch size were not related to LPB. We expect such relationships to be present also among other species. Consequently, the use of replacement clutches, as for example in clutch removal experiments, in evaluations of the cause of the often observed seasonal decline in various fitness components, might exaggerate the importance of the timing hypothesis over the quality hypothesis.     

Age-specific variation in reproduction is largely explained by the timing of territory establishment in the New Zealand stitchbird Notiomystis cincta

1. Using data from 327 nests over a consecutive 8-year period we examined age-specific variation in reproduction in a population of stitchbirds (or hihi) Notiomystis cincta and related how differences in reproductive performance were linked to the timing of territory establishment and breeding. 2. Across the population all reproductive parameters showed a quadratic relationship with an increase mainly between the first and second breeding season and a decline after the fourth year. A longitudinal analysis showed evidence of senescence by the sixth year in the numbers of chicks fledged and recruited. 3. Reproductive increases between years 1 and 2 were the result of poor-quality females dying after their first breeding season (differential selection hypothesis) in combination with surviving females showing improvements in reproduction in their second year (individual improvement/constraint hypothesis). 4. There was no effect of mate experience or territory quality on improvements in breeding between years. 5. The key variable influencing reproductive output was the timing of breeding. Birds that started laying earlier were more likely to lay multiple clutches in any given season. This was the main difference between first-year and older birds; generally first-year birds initiated egg laying later and consequently laid fewer clutches. 6. Approximately half of all first-year birds did not establish their territory until after the breeding season had begun. This delay in territory establishment resulted in these birds delaying breeding, which resulted in them having a lower reproductive output relative to all other birds. First-year birds that managed to establish their territory before breeding commenced, had similar rates of reproduction as older birds. 7. There was a positive relationship between the timing of territory establishment during a female's first year and her hatching date in the previous breeding season. We hypothesize that this was because late-hatched females were less able to effectively compete for territories against earlier-hatched members of their cohort, and this delayed their establishment and breeding in their first year. Thus, this social constraint is likely to be a major factor driving age-specific reproductive variation in this population.     

Timing of current reproduction directly affects future reproductive output in European coots

Life-history theory suggests that the variation in the seasonal timing of reproduction within populations may be explained on the basis of individual optimization. Optimal breeding times would vary between individuals as a result of trade-offs between fitness components. The existence of such trade-offs has seldom been tested empirically. We experimentally investigated the consequences of altered timing of current reproduction for future reproductive output in the European coot (Fulica atra). First clutches of different laying date were cross-fostered between nests, and parents thereby experienced a delay or an advance in the hatching date. The probability and success of a second brood, adult survival until and reproduction in the next season were then compared to the natural variation among control pairs. Among control pairs the probability of a second brood declined with the progress of season. Delayed pairs were less likely and advanced pairs were more likely to produce a second brood. These changes were quantitatively as predicted from the natural seasonal decline. The number of eggs in the second clutch was positively related to egg number in the first clutch and negatively related to laying date. Compared to the natural variation, delayed females had more and advanced females had fewer eggs in their second clutch. The size of the second brood declined with season, but there was no significant effect of delay or advance. Local adult survival was higher following a delay and reduced following an advance. The effect of the experiment on adult survival was independent of sex. Laying date and clutch size of females breeding in the next year were not affected by treatment. The study demonstrates the existence of a trade-off between increased probability of a second brood and decreased parental survival for early breeding. Timing-dependent effects of current reproduction on future reproductive output may thus play an important role in the evolution of the seasonal timing of reproduction.     

Female investment in offspring size and number shifts seasonally in a lizard with single-egg clutches

The timing of reproduction strongly influences reproductive success in many organisms. For species with extended reproductive seasons, the quality of the environment may change throughout the season in ways that impact offspring survival, and, accordingly, aspects of reproductive strategies may shift to maximize fitness. Life-history theory predicts that if offspring environments deteriorate through the season, females should shift from producing more, smaller offspring early in the season to fewer, higher quality offspring later in the season. We leverage multiple iterations of anole breeding colonies, which control for temperature, moisture, and food availability, to identify seasonal changes in reproduction. These breeding colonies varied only by the capture date of the adult animals from the field. We show that seasonal cohorts exhibit variation in key reproductive traits such as inter-clutch interval, egg size and hatchling size consistent with seasonal shifts in reproductive effort. Overall, reproductive effort was highest early in the season due to a relatively high rate of egg production. Later season cohorts produced fewer, but larger offspring. We infer that these results indicate a strategy for differential allocation of resources through the season. Females maximize offspring quantity when environments are favorable, and maximize offspring quality when environments are poor for those offspring. Our study also highlights that subtle differences in methodology (such as capture date of study animals) may influence the interpretation of results. Researchers interested in reproduction must be conscious of how their organism’s reproductive patterns may shift through the season when designing experiments or comparing results across studies.     

Variable reproductive effort for two ptarmigan species in response to spring weather in a northern alpine ecosystem

Predicting how animal populations respond to climate change requires knowledge of how species traits influence the response of individuals to variation in anuual weather. Over a four‐year study with two warm and two cold years, we examined how sympatric rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta and white‐tailed ptarmigan L. leucura in the southern Yukon Territory respond to spring weather in terms of breeding phenology and the allocation of reproductive effort. The onset of breeding was approximately synchronous; for each one‐degree rise in spring temperature, mean breeding dates of rock and white‐tailed ptarmigan advanced by about 2.7 and 4 days respectively. Although onset of breeding was similar, the two species differed in their reproductive effort. As breeding was delayed, average first clutch sizes of rock ptarmigan declined from 9.4 to 5.8 eggs over the breeding period, while those of white‐tailed ptarmigan only declined from an average of 7.8 to 6.8. Rock ptarmigan were also less likely to re‐nest if their first clutch was lost to predators and as a consequence they had shorter breeding seasons. White‐tailed ptarmigan produced about 25% more offspring annually than rock ptarmigan and contributed more young through re‐nesting. While white‐tailed ptarmigan had higher annual reproductive output, adult rock ptarmigan had a 20–25% higher annual survival rate, which may indicate a reproduction–survival trade‐off for the two species. These results show that even within the same location, closely related species can differ in how they allocate effort as environmental conditions fluctuate.     

Avian reproductive failure in response to an extreme climatic event

Recently, climate change research has emphasized the potential increase in the frequency and severity of climatic extremes. We compared the reproductive effort and output among four species of passerine birds in coastal southern California, USA, a semi-arid region, during a normal precipitation year (2001) and the driest year in a 150-year climate record (2002). Both reproductive effort and output differed dramatically between years. Mean reproductive output among the four species was 2.37 fledglings/pair in 2001 and 88.4% of all pairs observed attempted at least one nest. The birds attempted a mean of 1.44 nests per pair and were successful in 47.7% of those attempts. In 2002, only 6.7% of the pairs even attempted a nest and only 1.8% were successful, for a total output of 0.07 fledglings per pair. The abundance of suitable arthropod prey items in the environment was also much lower in 2002, suggesting that low food availability was the proximal cause of the reproductive failure. The data for one of these species, the rufous-crowned sparrow (Aimophila ruficeps), were combined with reproductive and rainfall data from a previous 3-year study (1997–1999) in the same sites. The combined data sets suggest that the response of reproduction to rainfall variation is linear, and that the low end of the precipitation range brings the population near reproductive failure. Any change in climate that would increase the frequency of extreme dry conditions would likely endanger populations of these species.     

Life‐history tradeoffs revealed by seasonal declines in reproductive traits of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Seasonal declines in breeding performance are widespread in wild animals, resulting from temporal changes in environmental conditions or from individual variation. Seasonal declines might drive selection for early breeding, with implications for other stages of the annual cycle. Alternatively, selection on the phenology of nonbreeding stages could constrain timing of the breeding season and lead to seasonal changes in reproductive performance. We studied 25 taxa of migratory shorebirds (including five subspecies) at 16 arctic sites in Russia, Alaska, and Canada. We investigated seasonal changes in four reproductive traits, and developed a novel Bayesian risk‐partitioning model of daily nest survival to examine seasonal trends in two causes of nest failure. We found strong seasonal declines in reproductive traits for a subset of species. The probability of laying a full four‐egg clutch declined by 8–78% in 12 of 25 taxa tested, daily nest survival rates declined by 1–12% in eight of 22 taxa, incubation duration declined by 2.0–2.5% in two of seven taxa, and mean egg volume declined by 5% in one of 15 taxa. Temporal changes were not fully explained by individual variation. Across all species, the proportion of failed nests that were depredated declined over the season from 0.98 to 0.60, while the proportion abandoned increased from 0.01 to 0.35 and drove the seasonal declines in nest survival. An increase in abandonment of late nests is consistent with a life‐history tradeoff whereby either adult mortality increased or adults deserted the breeding attempt to maximize adult survival. In turn, seasonal declines in clutch size and incubation duration might be adaptive to hasten hatching of later nests. In other species of shorebirds, we found no seasonal patterns in breeding performance, suggesting that some species are not subject to selective pressure for early breeding.     

Pre-laying climatic cues can time reproduction to optimally match offspring hatching and ice conditions in an Arctic marine bird

Individuals breeding in seasonal environments are under strong selection to time reproduction to match offspring demand and the quality of the post-natal environment. Timing requires both the ability to accurately interpret the appropriate environmental cues, and the flexibility to respond to inter-annual variation in these cues. Determining which cues are linked to reproductive timing, what these cues are predicting and understanding the fitness consequences of variation in timing, is therefore of paramount interest to evolutionary and applied ecologists, especially in the face of global climate change. We investigated inter-annual relationships between climatic variation and the timing of reproduction in Canada’s largest breeding population of Arctic common eiders (Somateria mollissima) in East Bay, Nunavut. Warmer spring temperatures predicted both earlier mean annual laying dates and the earlier ice-free conditions required by ducklings for post-natal growth. Warmer springs had higher variation in this temperature cue, and the population laying distribution became increasingly positively-skewed in warmer summers, potentially indicating that more low-quality females had the opportunity to commence laying in warmer years. Females that timed laying to match duckling hatching just prior to fully ice-free conditions obtained the highest duckling survival probability. Inter-annual data on repeated breeding attempts revealed that the individuals examined show a similar degree of laying flexibility in response to climatic variation; however, there was significant individual variation in the absolute timing of laying within an average year. This work sheds light on how reproductive timing is related to and influenced by variation in local climate and provides vital information on how climate-related variation in reproductive timing influence a fitness measure in an Arctic species. Results are especially relevant to future work in polar environments given that global climatic changes are predicted to be most intense at high latitudes.     

Constraints on, and determinants of, the annual number of breeding attempts in the multi-brooded Black Redstart Phoenicurus ochruros

With reference to models predicting patterns of reproduction in multi-brooded species, I analysed some of the factors potentially affecting the number of breeding attempts per season made by female Black Redstarts Phoenicurus ochruros in the central Swiss Alps. The maximum number of successful broods per female per season was three, the median two. The proportion of females initiating only a single clutch per season varied from 16 to 58% over 10 years. Variation in the frequency of single brooding between years was positively related to the date of the onset of breeding. Egg-laying started after a temperature-related threshold value was crossed in April. Females frequently re-nested before fledglings of the previous brood were independent. Short interbrood intervals were associated with triple brooding. The interbrood interval shortened during the breeding season. Intra-individual variation in the number of breeding attempts per season was partitioned according to female age, laying date of the season's first egg (standardized in relation to the median date of first laying within a year) and the occurrence of breeding failures before the ultimate nesting attempt. However, mortality during the season often terminated breeding early, in particular among novice breeder females. Seasonal reproductive success increased linearly with each additional breeding attempt. The productivity of a breeding attempt was independent of the time in the season. Increased reproductive effort affected neither current or future survival nor reproduction of females. The reproductive patterns and trade-offs in multi-brooded Black Redstarts contrast in many aspects with those found in single-brooded species. They are in accordance with models predicting that multi-brooded species are selected to start breeding as early as possible, continue breeding for as long as conditions are suitable, and save time by overlapping broods.     

Increasing returns in the life history of Columbian ground squirrels

1. We examined positive associations and trade-offs of maternal and reproductive traits in a population of Columbian ground squirrels, Spermophilus columbianus .
2. Structural size, body condition, mother's personal allocation to body mass during reproduction, and timing of littering were estimated for live-trapped reproductive females that were observed during an 8-year period, and were compared to litter mass, litter size, and average pup mass using path analyses.
3. Mothers exhibited age-structured traits that influenced reproductive patterns. Yearling mothers were significantly smaller, bred later, and had smaller litters than older females. Mothers that gained more body mass during reproduction and older mothers in good body condition that were structurally large had larger litters.
4. Early seasonal timing of littering was an important positive influence on successful reproduction by older mothers only in early breeding seasons and in years when conditions for reproduction were good for all females.
5. The number of offspring that survived to 1 year of age was most strongly associated with litter mass and litter size; date of breeding was of secondary influence, with earlier litters exhibiting greater success.
6. In general, mothers that gained the most in body mass during reproduction were concurrently more successful in weaning large litters (perhaps due to better quality of foraging habitat).
7. In addition to expected reproductive trade-offs, reproduction by Columbian ground squirrels exhibited positive associations of life-history traits that may reflect evolutionary increasing returns.     

Costs and Benefits of Competitive Traits in Females: Aggression,Maternal Care and Reproductive Success

Recent research has shown that female expression of competitive traits can be advantageous, providing greater access to limited reproductive resources. In males increased competitive trait expression often comes at a cost, e.g. trading off with parental effort. However, it is currently unclear whether, and to what extent, females also face such tradeoffs, whether the costs associated with that tradeoff overwhelm the potential benefits of resource acquisition, and how environmental factors might alter those relationships. To address this gap, we examine the relationships between aggression, maternal effort, offspring quality and reproductive success in a common songbird, the dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis), over two breeding seasons. We found that compared to less aggressive females, more aggressive females spent less time brooding nestlings, but fed nestlings more frequently. In the year with better breeding conditions, more aggressive females produced smaller eggs and lighter hatchlings, but in the year with poorer breeding conditions they produced larger eggs and achieved greater nest success. There was no relationship between aggression and nestling mass after hatch day in either year. These findings suggest that though females appear to tradeoff competitive ability with some forms of maternal care, the costs may be less than previously thought. Further, the observed year effects suggest that costs and benefits vary according to environmental variables, which may help to account for variation in the level of trait expression.     

Sex differences in the response to environmental cues regulating seasonal reproduction in birds

Although it is axiomatic that males and females differ in relation to many aspects of reproduction related to physiology, morphology and behaviour, relatively little is known about possible sex differences in the response to cues from the environment that control the timing of seasonal breeding. This review concerns the environmental regulation of seasonal reproduction in birds and how this process might differ between males and females. From an evolutionary perspective, the sexes can be expected to differ in the cues they use to time reproduction. Female reproductive fitness typically varies more as a function of fecundity selection, while male reproductive fitness varies more as a function sexual selection. Consequently, variation in the precision of the timing of egg laying is likely to have more serious fitness consequences for females than for males, while variation in the timing of recrudescence of the male testes and accompanying territory establishment and courtship are likely to have more serious fitness consequences for males. From the proximate perspective, sex differences in the control of reproduction could be regulated via the response to photoperiod or in the relative importance and action of supplementary factors (such as temperature, food supply, nesting sites and behavioural interactions) that adjust the timing of reproduction so that it is in step with local conditions. For example, there is clear evidence in several temperate zone avian species that females require both supplementary factors and long photoperiods in order for follicles to develop, while males can attain full gonadal size based on photoperiodic stimulation alone. The neuroendocrine basis of these sex differences is not well understood, though there are many candidate mechanisms in the brain as well as throughout the entire hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal axis that might be important.     

Adaptive adjustment of offspring sex ratio and maternal reproductive effort in an iteroparous mammal

Large mammals in seasonal environments have a pattern of high-reproductive synchrony in spring, but how the timing of reproduction affects resource allocation decisions at different stages of the reproductive cycle remains largely unexplored. By manipulating the timing of conception in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), we tested how the timing of conception affected sex ratio, gestation length and weight development of mother and offspring. Females that conceived at their first ovulation within the rut had a 60.5% probability of producing a male; in contrast, females that conceived a cycle later had a 31.3% probability of producing a male. Late conceiving females had gestation times that were 10 days shorter and the calves were 0.6 kg (9.2%) lighter at birth and 7.4 kg (14.7%) lighter in autumn. Over the year, female weight changes was similar between the groups suggesting reindeer follow a bet-hedging strategy; reducing the quality of this year's offspring to ensure their own future reproduction and survival. Harvesting is often selective leading to skewed sex ratios and age structure, which may influence the timing of reproduction due to females hesitation to mate with young males. Whenever this hesitation is strong enough to increase the frequency of recycling, harvesting is likely to have profound life history consequences.     

Weak breeding seasonality of a songbird in a seasonally arid tropical environment arises from individual flexibility and strongly seasonal moult

In some tropical birds, breeding seasonality is weak at the population level, even where there are predictable seasonal peaks in environmental conditions. It therefore remains unclear whether individuals are adapted to breeding at specific times of the year or flexible to variable environmental conditions. We tested whether the relative year‐round breeding activity of the Common Bulbul Pycnonotus barbatus arises due to within‐individual variability in breeding dates. We collected data from 827 birds via mist‐netting over 2 years with corresponding local weather data. We used a combination of climate envelope and generalized linear mixed models to explore how the timing of breeding is influenced by time of year, individual variation, rainfall and temperature in a West African savannah where seasonal precipitation determines annual variation in environmental conditions. We also pooled 65 breeding records from 19 individuals recorded between 2006 and 2017 based on brood patch occurrence and behavioural observation to compare within‐individual and population variability in breeding dates. We show that the breeding dates of individuals may be as variable as for the population as a whole. However, we observed a seasonal peak in juvenile occurrence that varies significantly between years. Models suggest no relationship between nesting and moult, and within‐year variation in rainfall and temperature, and birds were unlikely to breed during moult but may do so afterwards. Moult was very seasonal, correlating strongly with day length. We suggest that because environmental conditions permit year‐round breeding, and because reproductive output is subject to high predation risk, there is probably a weak selection for individuals to match breeding with variable peak conditions in the environment. Instead, moult, which always occurs annually and successfully, is probably under strong selection to match variable peak conditions in the environment so that long‐term survival ensures future reproduction.     

Evolution of passerine incubation behavior: influence of food, temperature, and nest predation

Abstract.— Incubation behavior is one component of reproductive effort and thus influences the evolution of life-history strategies. We examined the relative importance of body mass, frequency of mate feeding, food, nest predation, and ambient temperature to explain interspecific variation in incubation behavior (nest attentiveness, on- and off-bout durations, and nest trips per hour) using comparative analyses for North American passerines in which only females incubate. Body mass and frequency of mate feeding explained little variation in incubation behavior. We were also unable to detect any influence of food; diet and foraging strategy explained little interspecific variation in incubation behavior. However, the typical temperature encountered during reproduction explained significant variation in incubation behavior: Species breeding in colder environments take shorter bouts off the nest, which prevents eggs from cooling to temperatures below the physiological zero temperature. These species must compensate for shorter off-bouts by taking more of them (thus shorter on-bouts) to obtain needed energy for incubation. Nest predation also explains significant variation in incubation behavior among passerines: Species that endure high nest predation have evolved an incubation strategy (long on- and off-bouts) that minimizes activity that could attract predators. Nest substrate explained additional variation in incubation behavior (cavity-nesting birds have shorter on-bouts and make more frequent nest trips), presumably because nest predation and/or temperature varies among nest substrates. Thus, nest predation can influence reproductive effort in a way previously not demonstrated–by placing a constraint on parental activity at the nest. Incubating birds face an ecological cost associated with reproductive effort (predation of entire brood) that should be considered in future attempts to explain avian life-history evolution.     

Age and terminal reproductive attempt influence laying date in the thorn‐tailed rayadito

Age‐specific variation in reproductive effort can affect population dynamics, and is a key component of the evolution of reproductive tactics. Late‐life declines are a typical feature of variation in reproduction. However, the cause of these declines, and thus their implications for the evolution of life‐history tactics, may differ. Some prior studies have shown late‐life reproductive declines to be tied to chronological age, whereas other studies have found declines associated with terminal reproduction irrespective of chronological age. We investigated the extent to which declines in late life reproduction are related to chronological age, terminal reproductive attempt or a combination of both in the thorn‐tailed rayadito Aphrastura spinicauda, a small passerine bird that inhabits the temperate forest of South America. To this end we used long‐term data (10 years) obtained on reproductive success (laying date, clutch size and nestling weight) of females in a Chilean population. Neither chronological age nor terminal reproductive attempt explained variation in clutch size or nestling weight, however we observed that during the terminal reproductive attempt older females tended to lay later in the breeding season and younger females laid early in the breeding season, but this was not the case when the reproductive attempt was not the last. These results suggests that both age‐dependent and age‐independent effects influence reproductive output and therefore that the combined effects of age and physiological condition may be more relevant than previously thought.     

Environmental effects on variation and covariation in reproductive traits of Western Bluebirds

Summary Environmental conditions can influence the expression and correlations of phenotypic traits. I studied phenotypic plasticity in reproductive traits of Western Bluebirds breeding in northern Arizona. Data collected over 4 years on two contrasting habitats identified significant spatial and temporal variation in bluebird reproduction. Clutch size was similar over different environmental conditions whereas timing of clutch initiation, percent fledging success, and frequency of second nest attempts were flexible. Correlations between traits varied widely—often changing sign—among samples from different years or habitats. Correlations of traits with reproductive success were also dependent on environmental conditions. Variation in traits reflected behavioral responses by nesting adults to differences in time for breeding and feeding conditions. Density of trees differed between habitats and had opposing effects on these environmental variables; breeding seasons were generally longer, but feeding rates to nestlings were lower on the more open habitat. Late Spring snows delayed reproduction and increased the importance of limited time for breeding; feeding conditions were more influential following a dry Spring. This and other studies illustrate that data on phenotypic plasticity are important when evaluating the ecological and evolutionary forces underlying life histories.     

Increasing temperature, not mean temperature, is a cue for avian timing of reproduction

Timing of reproduction in temperate-zone birds is strongly correlated with spring temperature, with an earlier onset of breeding in warmer years. Females adjust their timing of egg laying between years to be synchronized with local food sources and thereby optimize reproductive output. However, climate change currently disrupts the link between predictive environmental cues and spring phenology. To investigate direct effects of temperature on the decision to lay and its genetic basis, we used pairs of great tits (Parus major) with known ancestry and exposed them to simulated spring scenarios in climate-controlled aviaries. In each of three years, we exposed birds to different patterns of changing temperature. We varied the timing of a temperature change, the daily temperature amplitude, and the onset and speed of a seasonal temperature rise. We show that females fine-tune their laying in response to a seasonal increase in temperature, whereas mean temperature and daily temperature variation alone do not affect laying dates. Luteinizing hormone concentrations and gonadal growth in early spring were not influenced by temperature or temperature rise, possibly posing a constraint to an advancement of breeding. Similarities between sisters in their laying dates indicate genetic variation in cue sensitivity. These results refine our understanding of how changes in spring climate might affect the mismatch in avian timing and thereby population viability.     

The effects of background mortality on optimal reproduction in a seasonal environment

We consider optimal annual routines of reproductive behaviour in a seasonal environment. In our model the condition of the organism is adversely affected by hard work, but can recover during easy periods. Our analysis concentrates on the effects of background mortality (i.e., mortality that cannot be avoided) on the optimal strategy and how often an organism following this strategy breeds. In particular, we are concerned with whether reproduction occurs at specific times of year (entrained to the annual cycle), and if so then how many reproductive bouts occur per year. We find that an increase in background mortality can have various effects. If the animal is entrained to the annual cycle and has one breeding attempt per year, then breeding tends to occur earlier and there may be two breeding attempts per season. Another possible outcome is that breeding is no longer entrained. If the animal is entrained but sometimes skips reproduction so that it does not breed every year, then an increase in mortality may make it more likely that the animal breeds every year. We show that as background mortality increases the resultant increase in the frequency of breeding contributes to the increase in annual mortality. We also explore the effects of mortality on the timing of reproduction within a year, highlighting the tension between the interests of the parent and that of the young.     

Trade-off between current reproductive effort and delay to next reproduction in the leatherback sea turtle

The trade-off between current and future reproduction plays an important role in demographic analyses. This can be revealed by the relationship between the number of years without reproduction and reproductive investment within a reproductive year. However, estimating both the duration between two successive breeding season and reproductive effort is often limited by variable recapture or resighting effort. Moreover, a supplementary difficulty is raised when nonbreeder individuals are not present sampling breeding grounds, and are therefore unobservable. We used capture–recapture (CR) models to investigate intermittent breeding and reproductive effort to test a putative physiological trade-off in a long-lived species with intermittent breeding, the leatherback sea turtle. We used CR data collected on breeding females on Awa:la-Ya:lima:po beach (French Guiana, South America) from 1995 to 2002. By adding specific constraints in multistate (MS) CR models incorporating several nonobservable states, we modelled the breeding cycle in leatherbacks and then estimated the reproductive effort according to the number of years elapsed since the last nesting season. Using this MS CR framework, the mean survival rate was estimated to 0.91 and the average resighting probability to 0.58 (ranged from 0.30 to 0.99). The breeding cycle was found to be limited to 3 years. These results therefore suggested that animals whose observed breeding intervals are greater than 3 years were most likely animals that escaped detection during their previous nesting season(s). CR data collected in 2001 and 2002 allowed us to compare the individual reproductive effort between females that skipped one breeding season and females that skipped two breeding seasons. These inferences led us to conclude that a trade-off between current and future reproduction exists in leatherbacks nesting in French Guiana, likely linked to the resource provisioning required to invest in reproduction.