Sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology in North European songbird populations

This study aims to investigate causes and mechanisms controlling protandrous migration patterns (the earlier breeding area arrival of males relative to females) and inter-sexual differences in timing of migration in relation to the recent climate-driven changes in phenology. Using standardised ringing data from a single site for eight North European migratory passerines collected throughout 22 years, we analysed sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology of the entire populations. Our results show protandrous patterns for the first as well as later arriving individuals for all studied species. Males show more synchronous migration patterns compared to females and, hence, first arriving females followed males more closely than later arriving individuals. However, we found no inter-sexual differences in arrival trends as both sexes advance spring arrival over time with the largest change for the first arriving individuals. These findings seem in support of the “mate opportunity” hypothesis, as the arrival of males and females is strongly coupled and both sexes seem to compete for early arrival. Changes in timing of arrival in males and females as a response to climatic changes may influence subsequent mating decisions, with subsequent feedbacks on population dynamics such as reproductive success and individual fitness. However, during decades of consistent earlier spring arrival in all phases of migration we found no evidence of inter-sexual phenological differences.     

Interactions between a Candidate Gene for Migration (ADCYAP1), Morphology and Sex Predict Spring Arrival in Blackcap Populations

Avian research has begun to reveal associations between candidate genes and migratory behaviors of captive birds, yet few studies utilize genotypic, morphometric, and phenological data from wild individuals. Previous studies have identified an association between ADCYAP1 polymorphism and autumn migratory behavior (restlessness, or zugunruhe), but little is known about the relationship between ADCYAP1 and spring migratory behavior. The timing of spring migration and arrival to the breeding ground are phenological traits which could be particularly favorable for establishing territories and acquiring mates, thus important to fitness and reproductive success. Here, we investigated how individual genotypic ADCYAP1 variation and phenotypic variation (wing length and shape) of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) affect spring arrival date across nine natural populations in Europe. We hypothesized that longer alleles should be associated with earlier spring arrival dates and expected the effect on arrival date to be stronger for males as they arrive earlier. However, we found that longer wings were associated with earlier spring arrival to the breeding grounds for females, but not for males. Another female-specific effect indicated an interaction between ADCYAP1 allele size and wing pointedness on the response of spring arrival: greater allele size had a positive effect on spring arrival date for females with rounder wings, while a negative effect was apparent for females with more pointed wings. Also, female heterozygotes with pointed wing tips arrived significantly earlier than both homozygotes with pointed wings and heterozygotes with round wings. Stable isotope ratios (δ ² H) of a subset of blackcaps captured in Freiburg in 2011 allowed us also to assign individuals to their main overwintering areas in northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) Europe. NW males arrived significantly earlier to the Freiburg breeding site than both SW males and females in 2011. NW females had more pointed wing tips compared to SW females, but no difference in ADCYAP1 allele size was found between the different migration routes.     

Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival‐breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change

Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival‐breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long‐term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival‐to‐breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg‐laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5–6 days), with considerable between‐individual variation in the arrival‐breeding interval. The arrival‐breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early‐arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first‐year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival‐breeding interval being absent in late‐arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early‐ to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late‐arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early‐ versus late‐arriving birds.     

Proximate control and adaptive potential of protandrous migration in birds

Migration determines where, when, and in which order males and females converge for reproduction. Protandry, the earlier arrival of males relative to females at the site of reproduction, is a widespread phenomenon found in many migratory organisms. Detailed knowledge of the determinants of protandry is becoming increasingly important for predicting how migratory species and populations will respond to rapid phenological shifts caused by climatic change. Here, we review and discuss the potential mechanisms underlying protandrous migration in birds, focusing on evidence from passerine species. Latitudinal segregation during the non-breeding period and differences in the initiation of spring migration are probably the key determinants of protandrous arrival at the breeding sites, while sexual differences in speed of migration appear to play a minor role. Experimental evidence suggests that differences between the sexes in the onset of spring migratory activity are caused by differences in circannual rhythmicity or by photoperiodic responsiveness. Both of these mechanisms are hardwired and could prevent individuals from responding plastically to chronic changes in temperature at the breeding grounds. As a consequence, adaptive changes in both the timing of arrival in spring and of reproduction will require evolutionary (genetic) changes of the cue-response systems underlying the initiation and extent of migration in both males and females.     

Early arrival is not associated with more extra‐pair fertilizations in a long‐distance migratory bird

When assessing the benefits of early arrival date of migratory birds, a hidden and often ignored component of males’ fitness is the higher chance of early‐arriving birds to obtain extra‐pair fertilizations. Here we investigated how extra‐pair paternity might affect the relationship between male arrival date and number of fertilizations in a model study system, the European pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca. For this purpose, we sampled and genotyped breeding pairs, unpaired males and offspring (including embryos from unhatched eggs when possible) of a Dutch pied flycatcher population. Detailed information on arrival date of males, egg laying date of their social mates and nest success was also recorded. Early‐arriving males had early‐laying females and males with early‐laying females had a higher probability of siring extra‐pair eggs and obtain more fertilizations. However, male arrival date alone did not correlate with the probability to gain extra‐pair paternity and neither to the amount of fertilized eggs. Both early‐ and late‐arriving males had a higher probability of losing paternity in their own nest compared to birds with an intermediate arrival date. Finally, late‐arriving males were more likely to remain unpaired but, interestingly, a few of these birds obtained paternity via extra‐pair copulations. Because earlier arrival date did not lead to more extra‐pair fertilizations and because such relationship seems to be driven mainly by the female's laying date, we conclude that the contribution of extra‐pair paternity to the overall fitness benefits of early male arrival date is relatively small.     

Relationship between arrival timing and breeding success of intra‐tropical migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus savana)

For migratory birds, early arrival at breeding areas has many benefits, such as acquisition of better territories and mates. This strategy has been found in numerous species breeding at north‐temperate latitudes, but has not been yet reported for intra‐tropical migratory species. We evaluated the relationship between arrival date, initiation of breeding, and breeding success of Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus savana) breeding in southeastern Brazil and overwintering in northern South America. We color‐banded adult flycatchers during three breeding seasons and searched for them during the following breeding seasons. We also monitored nests from construction until either failure or fledging of young. We found that: (1) male Fork‐tailed Flycatchers arrived at the breeding site earlier than females, (2) males that arrived earlier had greater breeding success, and (3) nests where eggs were laid earlier in the breeding season were more likely to be successful than those where eggs were laid later. Male Fork‐tailed Flycatchers appeared to benefit from early arrival at a tropical breeding site, potentially mediated by their ability to acquire a high‐quality territory and mate as early as possible, and by the ability of their mate to begin breeding as early as possible. Breeding success for female Fork‐tailed Flycatchers may be determined primarily by a combination of the arrival date of their mate and how quickly they can begin breeding. Our results suggest that protandry occurs in an intra‐tropical migratory bird and that early arrival of males and early initiation of reproduction by females results in greater reproductive success. A better understanding of the underlying mechanisms that control the timing of migration and reproduction of this and other intra‐tropical migratory species is important for evaluating the challenges they face in light of current and future rapid environmental changes.     

Sex and age-specific differences in wing pointedness and wing length in blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla migrating through the southern Baltic coast

The blackcap Sylvia atricapilla shows a complex migratory pattern and is a suitable species for the studies of morphological migratory syndrome, including adaptations of wing shape to different migratory performance. Obligate migrants of this species that breed in northern, central, and Eastern Europe differ by migration distance and some cover shorter distance to the wintering grounds in the southern part of Europe/North Africa or the British Isles, although others migrate to sub-Saharan Africa. Based on ˃40 years of ringing data on blackcaps captured during autumn migration in the Southern Baltic region, we studied age- and sex-related correlations in wing pointedness and wing length of obligate blackcap migrants to understand the differences in migratory behavior of this species. Even though the recoveries of blackcaps were scarce, we reported some evidence that individuals which differ in migration distance differed also in wing length. We found that wing pointedness significantly increased with an increasing wing length of migrating birds, and adults had longer and more pointed wings than juvenile birds. This indicates stronger antipredator adaptation in juvenile blackcaps than selection on flight efficiency, which is particularly important during migration. Moreover, we documented more pronounced differences in wing length between adult and juvenile males and females. Such differences in wing length may enhance a faster speed of adult male blackcaps along the spring migration route and may be adaptive when taking into account climatic effects, which favor earlier arrival from migration to the breeding grounds.     

Protandrous migration and variation in morphological characters in Emberiza buntings at an East Asian stopover site

The effect of the timing of spring migration on reproductive success differs between the sexes. As a consequence, various sex‐specific tactics relating to the timing of migration have evolved in migratory avian groups. Various hypotheses have been proposed to explain differential migration to breeding or wintering grounds, and inter‐ and intrasexual size differences are often considered one of the proximate mechanisms. We investigated arrival patterns in the spring by individuals of each sex, sexual size dimorphism and related morphological variables, and the relationship between size variation and arrival date in five bunting species that passed through an East Asian migratory flyway stopover site in 2006–08. Males of all the study species arrived before females, and significant sexual dimorphism was observed. Several morphological characters, including total length, wing‐length and tail‐length, contributed to the size variation. Although larger males arrived earlier, there was no relationship between arrival date and size in females. Our study confirmed that East Asian buntings display a discriminated protandrous migration pattern at the stopover site as well as at the breeding grounds. This is consistent with the view that larger body size in males is favoured due to its association with early arrival to help ensure access to the best resources and hence enhanced mating success.     

Degree of protandry reflects level of extrapair paternity in migratory songbirds

Males of most migratory organisms, including many birds, precede female conspecifics on their journey to the breeding areas. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolution of protandrous migration, yet they have rarely been tested at the interspecific level. Here, we provide correlational support for the “mate opportunity” hypothesis, which assumes that selection favours protandry in polygynous species where males gain significant fitness benefits from arriving earlier than females. Drawing on phenological data collected at two northern European stopover sites, we show that the time-lag in spring passage between males and females of five Palearctic migratory songbird species is positively associated with levels of extrapair paternity available from the literature. This suggests that males arrive relatively more in advance of females in species with high sperm competition where sexual selection through female choice is intense. Thus, protandry may arise from selection on the relative arrival timing of males and females rather than from selection within one of the sexes.     

The effects of hatching date on timing of autumn migration in partial migrants – an individual approach

Timing of spring migration and breeding and their interaction with climate change has been widely studied in recent years, but the possible changes in timing of autumn migration have gained less attention. This work focuses on autumn migration and provides the first multi‐species individual‐based study of how hatching date affects the autumn migration date and migration age by using nestling ring data and re‐trappings of the same individuals during the autumn migration at the Hanko Bird Observatory, Finland. We studied three potentially multibrooded passerines (great tit, blue tit and coal tit) and two single‐brooded birds of prey (goshawk, sparrowhawk), all partially migratory short‐distance migrants. Individuals from late broods migrated at a younger age in all tit species and also in hawks the late hatched individuals tended to migrate at a younger age than the early‐hatched individuals. Late‐hatched individuals migrated later than early‐hatched individuals in blue and coal tits, where the latest hatchers represented second brood individuals. Based on our results, the time from hatching to autumn migration is not constant even among individuals of the same population. Our study indicates that climate warming induced advancement of avian breeding may cause changes in the timing of autumn migration through the frequency of second broods.     

Evaluating the reproductive cost of migration for females in a partially migrating pond-breeding amphibian

Populations of animals with resident and migratory individuals provide an ideal system for addressing questions concerning the evolution of migration. Partially migratory populations may persist because residents and migrants have equal fitness or because migration is based on conditional asymmetries. Studies measuring the costs and benefits of migration provide empirical data to test hypotheses concerning the maintenance of partial migration within a population. In this study, we measured the reproductive differences between resident and migrant females in a pond-breeding amphibian, the red-spotted newt Notophthalmus viridescens . We used large field enclosures to repeatedly sample egg laying over the prolonged breeding season of this species. Resident females did not lay a greater number of eggs or begin laying eggs earlier, despite beginning the breeding season earlier and having a higher mass than migrant newts. The only difference in reproduction we detected was that the eggs of resident females hatched into larger larvae compared with the larvae of migrant females. We discuss this result in the context of other potential trade-offs between residency and migration. This study illustrates the phenology of egg laying of N. viridescens and our results contribute to understanding the population dynamics of partially migratory species.     

Climate change leads to differential shifts in the timing of annual cycle stages in a migratory bird

Shifts in reproductive phenology due to climate change have been well documented in many species but how, within the same species, other annual cycle stages (e.g. moult, migration) shift relative to the timing of breeding has rarely been studied. When stages shift at different rates, the interval between stages may change resulting in overlaps, and as each stage is energetically demanding, these overlaps may have negative fitness consequences. We used long‐term data of a population of European pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to investigate phenological shifts in three annual cycle stages: spring migration (arrival dates), breeding (egg‐laying and hatching dates) and the onset of postbreeding moult. We found different advancements in the timing of breeding compared with moult (moult advances faster) and no advancement in arrival dates. To understand these differential shifts, we explored which temperatures best explain the year‐to‐year variation in the timing of these stages, and show that they respond differently to temperature increases in the Netherlands, causing the intervals between arrival and breeding and between breeding and moult to decrease. Next, we tested the fitness consequences of these shortened intervals. We found no effect on clutch size, but the probability of a fledged chick to recruit increased with a shorter arrival‐breeding interval (earlier breeding). Finally, mark–recapture analyses did not detect an effect of shortened intervals on adult survival. Our results suggest that the advancement of breeding allows more time for fledgling development, increasing their probability to recruit. This may incur costs to other parts of the annual cycle, but, despite the shorter intervals, there was no effect on adult survival. Our results show that to fully understand the consequences of climate change, it is necessary to look carefully at different annual cycle stages, especially for organisms with complex cycles, such as migratory birds.     

Carry‐over effects and compensation: late arrival on non‐breeding grounds affects wing moult but not plumage or schedules of departing bar‐tailed godwits Limosa lapponica baueri

In the annual cycle of migratory birds, temporal and energetic constraints can lead to carry‐over effects, in which performance in one life history stage affects later stages. Bar‐tailed godwits Limosa lapponica baueri, which achieve remarkably high pre‐migratory fuel loads, undertake the longest non‐stop migratory flights yet recorded, and breed during brief high‐latitude summers, may be particularly vulnerable to persistent effects of disruptions to their rigidly‐timed annual routines. Using three years of non‐breeding data in New Zealand, we asked how arrival timing after a non‐stop flight from Alaska (>11 000 km) affected an individual godwit's performance in subsequent flight feather moult, contour feather moults, and migratory departure. Late arrival led to later wing moult, but godwits partially compensated for delayed moult initiation by increasing moult rate and decreasing the total duration of moult. Delays in arrival and wing moult up to 34–37 d had no apparent effect on an individual's migratory departure or extent of breeding plumage at departure, both of which were extraordinarily consistent between years. Thus, ‘errors’ in timing early in the non‐breeding season were essentially corrected in New Zealand prior to spring migration. Variation in migration timing also had no apparent effect on an individual's likelihood of returning the following season. The bar‐tailed godwits’ rigid maintenance of plumage and spring migration schedules, coupled with high annual survival, imply a surprising degree of flexibility to address unforeseen circumstances in the annual cycle.     

Effects of body size on sex‐related migration vary between two closely related gull species with similar size dimorphism

Studies of migration have revealed multiple trade‐offs with other life‐history traits that may underlie observed variation in migratory properties among ages and sexes. To assess whether, and to what extent, body size and/or sex‐specific differences in competition for resources (e.g. breeding territories or winter food) may shape variation in migration distance and timing of arrival in ecologically and phylogenetically related species, we combined over 30 000 sightings of individually marked, sexually mature males and females of Herring Gulls Larus argentatus and Lesser Black‐Backed Gulls Larus fuscus with biometric measurements and phenological observations at a mixed breeding colony. In L. argentatus, larger males migrated further from the breeding colony, whereas migration distance was independent of body size in adult females. In L. fuscus, no relationship between body size and migration distance was apparent in either sex. Mean arrival dates at the breeding colony did not vary with migration distances but differed between males and females of L. argentatus (but not L. fuscus). As allometry at least partly explains sexual segregation in migration behaviour in L. argentatus, but not in L. fuscus, we conclude that the effect of body size on sex‐related migratory strategies may vary between closely related, sympatric species despite similar size dimorphism.     

Individual repeatability in laying behaviour does not support the migratory carry‐over effect hypothesis of egg‐size dimorphism in Eudyptes penguins

Penguins of the genus Eudyptes are unique among birds in that their first‐laid A‐egg is 54–85% the mass of their second‐laid B‐egg. Although the degree of intra‐clutch egg‐size dimorphism varies greatly among the seven species of the genus, obligate brood reduction is typical of each, with most fledged chicks resulting from the larger B‐egg. Many authors have speculated upon why Eudyptes penguins have evolved and maintained a highly dimorphic 2‐egg clutch, and why it is the first‐laid egg that is so much smaller than the second, but only recently has a testable, proximate mechanism been proposed. In most species of Eudyptes penguins females appear to initiate egg‐formation at sea during return migration to breeding colonies. In macaroni penguins E. chrysolophus, females with a shorter pre‐laying interval ashore (and thus presumably greater overlap between migration and egg‐formation) lay more dimorphic eggs, suggesting a physiological conflict may constrain growth of the earlier‐initiated A‐egg. This migratory carry‐over effect hypothesis (MCEH) was tested in eastern rockhopper penguins E. chrysocome filholi on Campbell Island, New Zealand, by recording the arrival and lay dates, body sizes, and egg masses of transponder‐tagged females over two years. Females with longer pre‐laying intervals laid less dimorphic clutches, as predicted by the MCEH. However, repeated measures of individual females revealed that within‐individual variation in egg‐size dimorphism between years was unrelated to within‐individual variation in pre‐laying interval. Egg masses, and to a lesser extent egg‐size dimorphism, were highly repeatable traits related to body size and body mass. These results and a detailed consideration of the MCEH suggest that egg‐size dimorphism in Eudyptes penguins is unlikely to be caused by a migratory carry‐over effect.     

Why is timing of bird migration advancing when individuals are not?

Recent advances in spring arrival dates have been reported in many migratory species but the mechanism driving these advances is unknown. As population declines are most widely reported in species that are not advancing migration, there is an urgent need to identify the mechanisms facilitating and constraining these advances. Individual plasticity in timing of migration in response to changing climatic conditions is commonly proposed to drive these advances but plasticity in individual migratory timings is rarely observed. For a shorebird population that has significantly advanced migration in recent decades, we show that individual arrival dates are highly consistent between years, but that the arrival dates of new recruits to the population are significantly earlier now than in previous years. Several mechanisms could drive advances in recruit arrival, none of which require individual plasticity or rapid evolution of migration timings. In particular, advances in nest-laying dates could result in advanced recruit arrival, if benefits of early hatching facilitate early subsequent spring migration. This mechanism could also explain why arrival dates of short-distance migrants, which generally return to breeding sites earlier and have greater scope for advance laying, are advancing more rapidly than long-distance migrants.     

Winter climate affects subsequent breeding success of common eiders

The phenology of spring migration depends on the severity of the preceding winter and approaching spring. This severity can be quantified using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; positive values indicate mild winters. Although milder winters are correlated with earlier migration in many birds in temperate regions, few studies have addressed how climate‐induced variation in spring arrival relates to breeding success. In northern Europe, the NAO‐index correlates with ice cover and timing of ice break‐up of the Baltic Sea. Ice cover plays an important role for breeding waterfowl, since the timing of ice break‐up constrains both spring arrival and onset of breeding. We studied the effects of the winter‐NAO‐index and timing of ice break‐up on spring migration, laying date, clutch size, female body condition at hatching and fledging success of a short‐distance migrant common eider (Somateria mollissima) population from SW Finland, the Baltic Sea, 1991–2004 (migration data 1979–2004). We also examined the correlation between the NAO‐index and the proportion of juvenile eiders in the Danish hunting bag, which reflects the breeding success on a larger spatial scale. The body condition of breeding females and proportion of juveniles in the hunting bag showed significant positive correlations with the NAO, whereas arrival dates showed positive correlations and clutch size and fledging success showed negative correlations with the timing of ice break‐up. The results suggest that climate, which also affects ice conditions, has an important effect on the fledging success of eiders. Outbreaks of duckling disease epidemics may be the primary mechanism underlying this effect. Eider females are in poorer condition after severe winters and cannot allocate as much resources to breeding, which may impair the immune defense of ducklings. Global climate warming is expected to increase the future breeding success of eiders in our study population.     

Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances,temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long‐distance migratory birds

Phenological changes in key seasonally expressed life‐history traits occurring across periods of climatic and environmental change can cause temporal mismatches between interacting species, and thereby impact population and community dynamics. However, studies quantifying long‐term phenological changes have commonly only measured variation occurring in spring, measured as the first or mean dates on which focal traits or events were observed. Few studies have considered seasonally paired events spanning spring and autumn or tested the key assumption that single convenient metrics accurately capture entire event distributions. We used 60 years (1955–2014) of daily bird migration census data from Fair Isle, Scotland, to comprehensively quantify the degree to which the full distributions of spring and autumn migration timing of 13 species of long‐distance migratory bird changed across a period of substantial climatic and environmental change. In most species, mean spring and autumn migration dates changed little. However, the early migration phase (≤10th percentile date) commonly got earlier, while the late migration phase (≥90th percentile date) commonly got later. Consequently, species' total migration durations typically lengthened across years. Spring and autumn migration phenologies were not consistently correlated within or between years within species and hence were not tightly coupled. Furthermore, different metrics quantifying different aspects of migration phenology within seasons were not strongly cross‐correlated, meaning that no single metric adequately described the full pattern of phenological change. These analyses therefore reveal complex patterns of simultaneous advancement, temporal stability and delay in spring and autumn migration phenologies, altering species' life‐history structures. Additionally, they demonstrate that this complexity is only revealed if multiple metrics encompassing entire seasonal event distributions, rather than single metrics, are used to quantify phenological change. Existing evidence of long‐term phenological changes detected using only one or two metrics should consequently be interpreted cautiously because divergent changes occurring simultaneously could potentially have remained undetected.     

Life history events of the Eurasian sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus in a changing climate

Current climate change has been found to advance spring arrival and breeding dates of birds, but the effects on autumn migration and possible responses in the distribution of wintering individuals are poorly known. To thoroughly understand the consequences of climate change for animal life histories and populations, exploration of whole annual cycles are needed. We studied timing of migration (years 1979–2007), breeding phenology (1979–2007) and breeding success (1973–2007) of Eurasian sparrowhawks Accipiter nisus in Finland. We also investigated whether the migration distance of Finnish sparrowhawks has changed since the 1960s, using ringing recovery records. Since the late 1970s Finnish sparrowhawks have advanced their spring arrival, breeding and autumn departure considerably, but the migration distance has not changed. Early migrants, who are the ones with the highest reproductive success, show the strongest advance in the timing of spring migration. In autumn, advanced departure concerns young sparrowhawks. Late autumn migrants, who are mainly adults, have not advanced their migration significantly. The sparrowhawk is the most common bird of prey and the main predator of most passerines in Finland. Therefore, changes in sparrowhawk migration phenology may affect the migration behaviour of many prey species. The breeding success of sparrowhawks has increased significantly over the study period. This is however more likely caused by other factors than climate change, such as reduced exposure to organochlorine pollutants.     

Long‐term changes in autumn migration dates at the Strait of Gibraltar reflect population trends of soaring birds

A growing body of work shows that climate change is the cause of a number of directional shifts in the spring phenology of migratory birds. However, changes in autumn phenology are well studied and their consistency across species, as well as their link with population trends, remains uncertain. We investigate changes in the autumn migration dates of 11 species of soaring birds over the Strait of Gibraltar over a 16‐year period. Using models corrected for phylogeny, we assessed whether ecological and morphological characteristics, as well as population trends, account for interspecific shifts in migration times. We recorded different phenological changes in different periods of the migration season and suggest that these differences are due to age‐dependent responses. The variable best predicting advances in migration dates was population trend: species that did not advance their autumn migration dates were those showing a decline in their European breeding populations. We repeated our tests on a dataset representing the migration date of soaring birds across the Pyrenees Mountains and found that population trends at this site also predicted phenological shifts. Our results suggest that flexibility in migratory strategy and population trends may be related, such that different adaptive capacity in migration timing may be more relevant than other ecological traits in determining the conservation status of migratory birds in Europe and perhaps other regions.