Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

大气CO2浓度升高对土壤碳库稳定性的影响

工业革命以来,大气CO₂浓度持续上升,升高的CO₂浓度会改变植物光合产物积累、土壤碳库的碳输入和碳输出过程,进而通过影响有机碳组成和周转特征来调控土壤碳库动态变化。土壤碳库是陆地生态系统碳库的重要组成部分,其碳储量的微小变化都会对大气CO₂浓度和气候变化产生巨大影响。但目前关于CO₂浓度升高对土壤碳库动态和稳定性的影响还不清楚,很大程度上限制了预测陆地生态系统碳循环对气候变化的反馈。系统综述国内外大气CO₂浓度升高对植被生产力、植被碳输入和土壤碳库影响的研究进展,旨在揭示土壤碳库物理、化学组成以及周转特征对CO₂浓度升高的响应过程和机理,探讨CO₂升高情境下土壤微生物特征对土壤碳库稳定性的影响和驱动机制,为深入理解全球变化下的土壤碳循环特征提供理论支撑。     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

Spatial variability and temporal trends in water‐use efficiency of European forests

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree‐ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX‐Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land–atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree‐ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south‐to‐north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil‐water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO₂ and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation–climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.     

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO₂ and CH₄ could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process‐based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS‐TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water‐table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO₂ emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.     

Increase in CO2 concentration could alter the response of Hedera helix to climate change

Increasing CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) is likely to affect future species distributions, in interaction with other climate change drivers. However, current modeling approaches still seldom consider interactions between climatic factors and the importance of these interactions therefore remains mostly unexplored. Here, we combined dendrochronological and modeling approaches to study the interactive effects of increasing [CO₂] and temperature on the distribution of one of the main European liana species, Hedera helix. We combined a classical continent‐wide species distribution modeling approach with a case study using H. helix and Quercus cerris tree rings, where we explored the long‐term influence of a variety of climate drivers, including increasing [CO₂], and their interactions, on secondary growth. Finally, we explored how our findings could influence the model predictions. Climate‐only model predictions showed a small decrease in habitat suitability for H. helix in Europe; however, this was accompanied by a strong shift in the distribution toward the north and east. Our growth ring data suggested that H. helix can benefit from high [CO₂] under warm conditions, more than its tree hosts, which showed a weaker response to [CO₂] coupled with higher cavitation risk under high temperature. Increasing [CO₂] might therefore offset the negative effects of high temperatures on H. helix, and we illustrate how this might translate into maintenance of H. helix in warmer areas. Our results highlight the need to consider carbon fertilization and interactions between climate variables in ecological modeling. Combining dendrochronological analyses with spatial distribution modeling may provide opportunities to refine predictions of how climate change will affect species distributions.     

气候变化对作物矿质元素利用率影响研究进展

作物矿质元素利用率对气候变化的响应是目前全球变化研究中既重要、又复杂,且认知最少的科学领域。这个科学问题的研究关系到解密或预测陆地植物及农作物矿质胁迫对全球气候变化响应的机理,为将来农业投入提供理论依据,是应对气候变化的当务之急。目前只有少数研究,通过模拟试验,探索性地开展了CO_2浓度或温度升高的环境条件下,矿质元素在土壤-植物系统迁移、分布和储存特征的研究。从相关的文献报道来看,CO_2浓度升高环境条件下,小麦和水稻作物籽粒中大量和痕量元素的富集水平一般呈下降趋势。但温度升高情况下,作物各器官对对矿质元素的吸收情况则更为复杂。正由于气候因素与植物矿质元素利用率之间关系的复杂性,在气候变化背景下,解密作物矿质胁迫对全球气候变化响应的科学问题,尚需改进试验方法、手段,从土壤性质、作物生态生理,以及农业生态系统中矿质元素在土壤-作物系统中迁移转化的过程,全面考察作物矿质元素利用率对气候变化的响应机理。     

Stomatal responses to increased CO2: implications from the plant to the global scale

Increased atmospheric CO₂ often but not always leads to large decreases in leaf conductance. Decreased leaf conductance has important implications for a number of components of CO₂ responses, from the plant to the global scale. All of the factors that are sensitive to a change in soil moisture, either amount or timing, may be affected by increased CO₂. The list of potentially sensitive processes includes soil evaporation, run-off, decomposition, and physiological adjustments of plants, as well as factors such as canopy development and the composition of the plant and microbial communities. Experimental evidence concerning ecosystem-scale consequences of the effects of CO₂ on water use is only beginning to accumulate, but the initial indication is that, in water-limited areas, the effects of CO₂-induced changes in leaf conductance are comparable in importance to those of CO,₂-induced changes in photosynthesis. Above the leaf scale, a number of processes interact to modulate the response of canopy or regional evapotran-spiration to increased CO₂. While some components of these processes tend to amplify the sensitivity of evapo-transpiration to altered leaf conductance, the most likely overall pattern is one in which the responses of canopy and regional evapotranspiration are substantially smaller than the responses of canopy conductance. The effects of increased CO₂ on canopy evapotranspiration are likely to be smallest in aerodynamically smooth canopies with high leaf conductances. Under these circumstances, which are largely restricted to agriculture, decreases in evapotranspiration may be only one-fourth as large as decreases in canopy conductance. Decreased canopy conductances over large regions may lead to altered climate, including increased temperature and decreased precipitation. The simulation experiments to date predict small effects globally, but these could be important regionally, especially in combination with radiative (greenhouse) effects of increased CO₂.     

How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes

We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO₂ was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr^?1 at the time of atmospheric CO₂ doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO₂ are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.     

Terrestrial higher-plant response to increasing atmospheric [CO2] in relation to the global carbon cycle

Terrestrial higher plants exchange large amounts of CO₂ with the atmosphere each year; c. 15% of the atmospheric pool of C is assimilated in terrestrial-plant photosynthesis each year, with an about equal amount returned to the atmosphere as CO₂ in plant respiration and the decomposition of soil organic matter and plant litter. Any global change in plant C metabolism can potentially affect atmospheric CO₂ content during the course of years to decades. In particular, plant responses to the presently increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration might influence the rate of atmospheric CO₂ increase through various biotic feedbacks. Climatic changes caused by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration may modulate plant and ecosystem responses to CO₂ concentration. Climatic changes and increases in pollution associated with increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration may be as significant to plant and ecosystem C balance as CO₂ concentration itself. Moreover, human activities such as deforestation and livestock grazing can have impacts on the C balance and structure of individual terrestrial ecosystems that far outweigh effects of increasing CO₂ concentration and climatic change. In short-term experiments, which in this case means on the order of 10 years or less, elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration affects terrestrial higher plants in several ways. Elevated CO₂ can stimulate photosynthesis, but plants may acclimate and (or) adapt to a change in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Acclimation and adaptation of photosynthesis to increasing CO₂ concentration is unlikely to be complete, however. Plant water use efficiency is positively related to CO₂ concentration, implying the potential for more plant growth per unit of precipitation or soil moisture with increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Plant respiration may be inhibited by elevated CO₂ concentration, and although a naive C balance perspective would count this as a benefit to a plant, because respiration is essential for plant growth and health, an inhibition of respiration can be detrimental. The net effect on terrestrial plants of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration is generally an increase in growth and C accumulation in phytomass. Published estimations, and speculations about, the magnitude of global terrestrial-plant growth responses to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration range from negligible to fantastic. Well-reasoned analyses point to moderate global plant responses to CO₂ concentration. Transfer of C from plants to soils is likely to increase with elevated CO₂ concentrations because of greater plant growth, but quantitative effects of those increased inputs to soils on soil C pool sizes are unknown. Whether increases in leaf-level photosynthesis and short-term plant growth stimulations caused by elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration will have, by themselves, significant long-term (tens to hundreds of years) effects on ecosystem C storage and atmospheric CO₂ concentration is a matter for speculation, not firm conclusion. Long-term field studies of plant responses to elevated atmospheric CO₂ are needed. These will be expensive, difficult, and by definition, results will not be forthcoming for at least decades. Analyses of plants and ecosystems surrounding natural geological CO₂ degassing vents may provide the best surrogates for long-term controlled experiments, and therefore the most relevant information pertaining to long-term terrestrial-plant responses to elevated CO₂ concentration, but pollutants associated with the vents are a concern in some cases, and quantitative knowledge of the history of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations near vents is limited. On the whole, terrestrial higher-plant responses to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration probably act as negative feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases, but they cannot by themselves stop the fossil-fuel-oxidation-driven increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. And, in the very long-term, atmospheric CO₂ concentration is controlled by atmosphere-ocean C equilibrium rather than by terrestrial plant and ecosystem responses to atmospheric CO₂ concentration.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Modelling climate,CO2 and management impacts on soil carbon in semi-arid agroecosystems

In agroecosystems, there is likely to be a strong interaction between global change and management that will determine whether soil will be a source or sink for atmospheric C. We conducted a simulation study of changes in soil C as a function of climate and CO₂ change, for a suite of different management systems, at four locations representing a climate sequence in the central Great Plains of the US.Climate, CO₂ and management interactions were analyzed for three agroecosystems: a conventional winter wheat-summer fallow rotation, a wheat-corn-fallow rotation and continuous cropping with wheat. Model analyses included soil C responses to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation and responses to changes in temperature, precipitation and CO₂ as projected by a general circulation model for a 2 × CO₂ scenario.Overall, differences between management systems at all the sites were greater than those induced by perturbations of climate and/or CO₂. Crop residue production was increased by CO₂ enrichment and by a changed climate. Where the frequency of summer fallowing was reduced (wheat-corn-fallow) or eliminated (continuous wheat), soil C increased under all conditions, particularly with increased (640 L L^–1) CO₂. For wheat-fallow management, the model predicted declines in soil C under both ambient conditions and with climate change alone. Increased CO₂ with wheat-fallow management yielded small gains in soil C at three of the sites and reduced losses at the fourth site.Our results illustrate the importance of considering the role of management in determining potential responses of agroecosystems to global change. Changes in climate will determine changes in management as farmers strive to maximize profitability. Therefore, changes in soil C may be a complex function of climate driving management and management driving soil C levels and not be a simple direct effect of either climate or management.     

Impact of CO2 concentration changes on the biosphere-atmosphere system of West Africa

Vegetation dynamics plays a critical role in causing the decadal variability of precipitation over the Sahel region of West Africa. However, the potential impact of changes in CO₂ concentration on vegetation dynamics and precipitation variability of this region has not been addressed by previous studies. In this paper, we explore the role of CO₂ concentration in the regional climate system of West Africa using a zonally symmetric, synchronously coupled biosphere‐atmosphere model. We first document the response of precipitation and vegetation to incremental changes of CO₂ concentration; the impact of CO₂ concentration on the variability of the regional biosphere‐atmosphere system is then addressed using the second half of the twentieth century as an example. An increase of CO₂ concentration causes the regional biosphere‐atmosphere system to become wetter and greener, with the radiative effect of CO₂ and improved plant‐water relation dominant in the Sahelian grassland region and the direct enhancement of leaf carbon assimilation dominant in the tree‐covered region to the south. Driven by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the period 1950–97 and with CO₂ concentration prescribed at a pre‐industrial level 300ppmv, the model simulates a persistent Sahel drought during the period of 1960s?1990s. The simulated drought takes place in the form of a transition of the coupled biosphere‐atmosphere system from a wet/green regime in the 1950s to a dry/barren regime after the 1960s. This climate transition is triggered by SST forcing and materialized through vegetation‐climate interactions. The same SST forcing does not produce such a persistent drought when a constant modern CO₂ concentration of 350ppmv is specified, indicating that the biosphere‐atmosphere system at higher CO₂ level is more resilient to drought‐inducing external forcings. This finding suggests that the regional climate in Sahel, which tends to alternate between dry and wet spells, may experience longer (or more frequent) wet episodes and shorter (or less frequent) dry episodes in the future than in the past. Our study has significant implications regarding the impact of climate change on regional socio‐economic development.     

Interactive responses of old‐field plant growth and composition to warming and precipitation

As Earth's atmosphere accumulates carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases, Earth's climate is expected to warm and precipitation patterns will likely change. The manner in which terrestrial ecosystems respond to climatic changes will in turn affect the rate of climate change. Here we describe responses of an old‐field herbaceous community to a factorial combination of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three precipitation regimes (drought, ambient and rain addition) over 2 years. Warming suppressed total production, shoot production, and species richness, but only in the drought treatment. Root production did not respond to warming, but drought stimulated the growth of deeper (> 10 cm) roots by 121% in 1 year. Warming and precipitation treatments both affected functional group composition, with C₄ grasses and other annual and biennial species entering the C₃ perennial‐dominated community in ambient rainfall and rain addition treatments as well as in warmed treatments. Our results suggest that, in this mesic system, expected changes in temperature or large changes in precipitation alone can alter functional composition, but they have little effect on total herbaceous plant growth. However, drought limits the capacity of the entire system to withstand warming. The relative insensitivity of our study system to climate suggests that the herbaceous component of old‐field communities will not dramatically increase production in response to warming or precipitation change, and so it is unlikely to provide either substantial increases in forage production or a meaningful negative feedback to climate change later this century.     

Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO₂ levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.     

微生物介导的碳氮循环过程对全球气候变化的响应

土壤是地球表层最为重要的碳库也是温室气体的源或汇。自工业革命以来,对土壤温室气体的容量、收支平衡和通量等已有较多研究和估算,但对关键过程及其源/汇的研究却十分有限。微生物是土壤碳氮转化的主要驱动者, 在生态系统碳氮循环过程中扮演重要的角色,对全球气候变化有着响应的响应、适应及反馈,然而其个体数量,群落结构和多样性如何与气候扰动相互关联、进而怎样影响生态系统过程的问题仍有待进一步探索。从微生物介导的碳氮循环过程入手,重点讨论微生物对气候变化包括温室气体(CO₂,CH₄,N₂O)增加、全球变暖、大气氮沉降等的响应和反馈,并由此提出削减温室气体排放的可能途径和今后发展的方向。     

Leaf carbon assimilation in a water-limited world

Abstract

Over the past 150 years the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere has been increasing, largely as a result of land-use change and anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. It is estimated that the atmospheric [CO₂] will reach 70 Pa by the end of the 21st Century. The most important consequence of this rise in [CO₂] is warming the surface temperature of the Earth by 0.4 – 0.6°C per decade throughout the 21st Century. Increasing [CO₂] along with associated changes in temperature will most likely alter the structure and function of agro-ecosystems, affecting their productivity and their role as stable sinks to CO₂ sequestration. Both CO₂ and temperature are key variables affecting plant growth, development and functions. Moreover, because of the future scenario of higher temperature and evaporative demand, drought occurrences will be increased in frequency, intensity, and erratic pattern. The combination of elevated temperatures and the increased incidence of environmental stress will probably constitute the greatest risk caused by climate change to the agro-ecosystems in arid or semiarid areas of the world. The purpose of this paper is to review the exchange of carbon driving the main ecophysiological processes of plants in response to climate change and environmental stresses. Drought and salinity first affect the acquisition of CO₂ by increasing stomatal and mesophyll resistances, and only after cause irreversible damages to the biochemical apparatus. Heat stress denatures thylakoid membranes, but this action may be counteracted by the synthesis of many isoprenoids in the chloroplasts from carbon freshly fixed by photosynthesis. There is rising concern about the impact of environmental stress on tree growth with this future scenario of global climate change. The combination of elevated temperatures and the increased incidence of environmental stress (particularly drought and salinity) will probably constitute the greatest risk caused by global climate change to the forest ecosystems in arid or semiarid areas of the world.     

Contrasting responses of leaf stomatal characteristics to climate change: a considerable challenge to predict carbon and water cycles

Stomata control the cycling of water and carbon between plants and the atmosphere; however, no consistent conclusions have been drawn regarding the response of stomatal frequency to climate change. Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 1854 globally obtained data series to determine the response of stomatal frequency to climate change, which including four plant life forms (over 900 species), at altitudes ranging from 0 to 4500 m and over a time span of more than one hundred thousand years. Stomatal frequency decreased with increasing CO₂ concentration and increased with elevated temperature and drought stress; it was also dependent on the species and experimental conditions. The response of stomatal frequency to climate change showed a trade‐off between stomatal control strategies and environmental factors, such as the CO₂ concentration, temperature, and soil water availability. Moreover, threshold effects of elevated CO₂ and temperature on stomatal frequency were detected, indicating that the response of stomatal density to increasing CO₂ concentration will decrease over the next few years. The results also suggested that the stomatal index may be more reliable than stomatal density for determination of the historic CO₂ concentration. Our findings indicate that the contrasting responses of stomata to climate change bring a considerable challenge in predicting future water and carbon cycles.     

Warming and depth interact to affect carbon dioxide concentration in aquatic mesocosms

1. Climate change may significantly influence lake carbon dynamics and consequently the exchange of CO₂ with the atmosphere. Warming will accelerate multiple processes that either absorb or release CO₂, making predicting the net effect of warming on CO₂ exchange with the atmosphere difficult. Here we experimentally test how the CO₂ flux of deep and shallow systems responds to warming. To do this, we conducted a greenhouse experiment using mesocosms of two depths, experiencing either ambient or warmed temperatures. 2. Deeper mesocosms were found to have a lower average CO₂ concentration than shallower mesocosms under ambient temperature conditions. In addition, warming interacts with mesocosm depth to affect the average CO₂ concentration; there was no effect of warming on the average CO₂ concentration of deep mesocosms, but shallow mesocosms had significantly lower average CO₂ concentrations when warmed. 3. The difference in CO₂ concentration resulting from the depth manipulation was due to varying loss rates of particulate carbon to the sediments. There was a strong negative correlation between CO₂ and sedimentation rates in the deep mesocosms suggesting that high particulate carbon loss to the sediments lowered the CO₂ concentration in the water column. There was no correlation between CO₂ and sedimentation rates observed for shallow mesocosms suggesting enhanced carbon regeneration from the sediments was maintaining higher CO₂ concentrations in the water column. 4. Relationships between CO₂ and algal concentrations indicate that the reduction in CO₂ concentrations resulting from warming is due to increased per capita algal turnover rates depleting CO₂ in the water column. Our results suggest that the carbon dynamics and CO₂ flux of shallow systems will be affected more by climate warming than deep systems and the net effect of warming is to increase CO₂ uptake.