Major Radiations in the Evolution of Caviid Rodents: Reconciling Fossils,Ghost Lineages,and Relaxed Molecular Clocks

Background

Caviidae is a diverse group of caviomorph rodents that is broadly distributed in South America and is divided into three highly divergent extant lineages: Caviinae (cavies), Dolichotinae (maras), and Hydrochoerinae (capybaras). The fossil record of Caviidae is only abundant and diverse since the late Miocene. Caviids belongs to Cavioidea sensu stricto (Cavioidea s.s.) that also includes a diverse assemblage of extinct taxa recorded from the late Oligocene to the middle Miocene of South America (“eocardiids”).

Results

A phylogenetic analysis combining morphological and molecular data is presented here, evaluating the time of diversification of selected nodes based on the calibration of phylogenetic trees with fossil taxa and the use of relaxed molecular clocks. This analysis reveals three major phases of diversification in the evolutionary history of Cavioidea s.s. The first two phases involve two successive radiations of extinct lineages that occurred during the late Oligocene and the early Miocene. The third phase consists of the diversification of Caviidae. The initial split of caviids is dated as middle Miocene by the fossil record. This date falls within the 95% higher probability distribution estimated by the relaxed Bayesian molecular clock, although the mean age estimate ages are 3.5 to 7 Myr older. The initial split of caviids is followed by an obscure period of poor fossil record (refered here as the Mayoan gap) and then by the appearance of highly differentiated modern lineages of caviids, which evidentially occurred at the late Miocene as indicated by both the fossil record and molecular clock estimates.

Conclusions

The integrated approach used here allowed us identifying the agreements and discrepancies of the fossil record and molecular clock estimates on the timing of the major events in cavioid evolution, revealing evolutionary patterns that would not have been possible to gather using only molecular or paleontological data alone.     

The fossil record and taphonomy of butterflies and moths (Insecta,Lepidoptera): implications for evolutionary diversity and divergence-time estimates

Background

It is conventionally accepted that the lepidopteran fossil record is significantly incomplete when compared to the fossil records of other, very diverse, extant insect orders. Such an assumption, however, has been based on cumulative diversity data rather than using alternative statistical approaches from actual specimen counts.

Results

We reviewed documented specimens of the lepidopteran fossil record, currently consisting of 4,593 known specimens that are comprised of 4,262 body fossils and 331 trace fossils. The temporal distribution of the lepidopteran fossil record shows significant bias towards the late Paleocene to middle Eocene time interval. Lepidopteran fossils also record major shifts in preservational style and number of represented localities at the Mesozoic stage and Cenozoic epoch level of temporal resolution. Only 985 of the total known fossil specimens (21.4%) were assigned to 23 of the 40 extant lepidopteran superfamilies. Absolute numbers and proportions of preservation types for identified fossils varied significantly across superfamilies. The secular increase of lepidopteran family-level diversity through geologic time significantly deviates from the general pattern of other hyperdiverse, ordinal-level lineages.

Conclusion

Our statistical analyses of the lepidopteran fossil record show extreme biases in preservation type, age, and taxonomic composition. We highlight the scarcity of identified lepidopteran fossils and provide a correspondence between the latest lepidopteran divergence-time estimates and relevant fossil occurrences at the superfamily level. These findings provide caution in interpreting the lepidopteran fossil record through the modeling of evolutionary diversification and in determination of divergence time estimates.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0290-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Systematics and palaeoecology of middle Toarcian Asteroidea (Echinodermata) from the “Seuil du Poitou”, Western France

Complete, articulated starfish fossils are rare. However, more frequently encountered dissociated skeletal elements (ossicles) permit reliable taxonomic identification, making them a valuable data source for diversity estimates. Nearly 300 asteroid ossicles, collected from the middle Toarcian marls in western France can be assigned to five species. Four species and two genera are described: Comptoniaster vrinensis nov. sp. (Goniasteridae), Poncetaster crateri nov. gen. nov. sp. (Stauranderasteridae), Galbaster recurrans nov. gen. nov. sp. (Goniasteridae) and Pentasteria? liasica nov. sp. (Astropectinidae). The known diversity of Early Jurassic asteroids is increased from 12 to 16 species. These taxa illustrate the diversification of crown-group asteroids early in the Jurassic, following the Permo-Triassic crisis. They also reflect bias of the fossil record, and imply the existence of numerous ghost lineages in the evolutionary trees of extant groups. Variation in asteroid diversity across the “Seuil du Poitou” was driven by ecological constraints. The relative frequency (abundance of ossicles and diversity) of goniasterids and stauranderasterids increases in shallower environments. The Benthopectinidae, represented by Plesiastropecten hallovensis, occurred primarily from deep-shelf sediments. Similar ecological patterns are observed for more recent fossil and extant relatives, which further supports the idea of conservative evolution in post-Palaeozoic starfishes since the Early Jurassic.     

To what extent do new fossil discoveries change our understanding of clade evolution? A cautionary tale from burying beetles (Coleoptera: Nicrophorus)

Divergence time estimates derived from phylogenies are crucial to infer historical biogeography and diversification dynamics. Yet, the impact of fossil record incompleteness on macroevolutionary reconstructions remains equivocal. Here, we investigate to what extent gaps in the fossil record can impinge downstream evolutionary inferences in the beetle family Silphidae. Recent discoveries have pushed back the fossil record of this group from the Eocene into the Jurassic. We estimated the divergence times of the family using both its currently understood fossil record and the fossil record known prior to these recent discoveries. All fossil calibrations were informed with different parametric distributions to investigate the weight of priors on posterior age estimates. Based on time‐calibrated trees, we assessed the impact of fossil calibrations on the inference of ancestral ranges and diversification rate dynamics in the genus Nicrophorus. Depending upon the selected sets of fossil constraints, the age discrepancies had a major impact on the macroevolutionary inferences: the biogeographic extrapolations relative to paleogeography are markedly contrasting, and the calculated rates at which species form or go extinct (and when they varied) are strikingly different. We show that soft prior distributions do not necessarily alleviate such shortcomings therefore preventing the inference of reliable macroevolutionary patterns in groups presenting a taphonomic bias in their fossil record.     

Genome-wide supermatrix analyses of maples (Acer,Sapindaceae) reveal recurring inter-continental migration,mass extinction,and rapid lineage divergence

Acer (Sapindaceae) is an exceptional study system for understanding the evolutionary history, divergence, and assembly of broad-leaved deciduous forests at higher latitudes. Maples stand out due to their high diversity, disjunct distribution pattern across the northern continents, and rich fossil record dating back to the Paleocene. Using a genome-wide supermatrix combining plastomes and nuclear sequences (~585 kb) for 110 Acer taxa, we built a robust time-calibrated hypothesis investigating the evolution of maples, inferring ancestral ranges, reconstructing diversification rates over time, and exploring the impact of mass-extinction on lineage accumulation. Contrary to fossil evidence, our results indicate Acer first originated in the (north)eastern Palearctic region, which acted as a source for recurring outward migration. Warm conditions favored rapid Eocene-onward divergence, but ranges and diversity declined extensively as a result of the Plio-Pleistocene glacial cycles. These signals in genome-wide sequence data corroborate paleobotanical evidence for other major woody north-temperate groups, highlighting the significant (disparate) impact of climatic changes on the evolution, composition, and distribution of the vegetation in the northern hemisphere.     

DNA and Morphology Unite Two Species and 10 Million Year Old Fossils

Species definition and delimitation is a non-trivial problem in evolutionary biology that is particularly problematic for fossil organisms. This is especially true when considering the continuity of past and present species, because species defined in the fossil record are not necessarily equivalent to species defined in the living fauna. Correctly assigned fossil species are critical for sensitive downstream analysis (e.g., diversification studies and molecular-clock calibration). The marine snail genus Alcithoe exemplifies many of the problems with species identification. The paucity of objective diagnostic characters, prevalence of morphological convergence between species and considerable variability within species that are observed in Alcithoe are typical of a broad range of fossilised organisms. Using a synthesis of molecular and morphometric approaches we show that two taxa currently recognised as distinct are morphological variants of a single species. Furthermore, we validate the fossil record for one of these morphotypes by finding a concordance between the palaeontological record and divergence time of the lineage inferred using molecular-clock analysis. This work demonstrates the utility of living species represented in the fossil record as candidates for molecular-clock calibration, as the veracity of fossil species assignment can be more rigorously tested.     

Evolutionary diversification of reef corals: a comparison of the molecular and fossil records

Understanding historical patterns of diversity dynamics is of paramount importance for many evolutionary questions. The fossil record has long been the only source of information on patterns of diversification, but the molecular record, derived from time-calibrated phylogenies, is becoming an important additional resource. Both fossil and molecular approaches have shortcomings and biases. These have been well studied for fossil data but much less so for molecular data and empirical comparisons between approaches are lacking. Here, we compare the patterns of diversification derived from fossil and molecular data in scleractinian reef coral species. We also assess the robustness of molecular diversification rates to poor taxon sampling. We find that the temporal pattern of molecular diversification rates is robust to incomplete sampling when rates are calculated per interval. The major obstacle of molecular methods is that rate estimates are distorted because diversification rates can never be negative, whereas the fossil record suffers from incomplete preservation and inconsistent taxonomy. Nevertheless, the molecular pattern of diversification is comparable to the pattern we observe in the fossil record, with the timing of major diversification pulses coinciding in each dataset. For example, both agree that the end-Triassic coral extinction was a catastrophic bottleneck in scleractinian evolution.     

New crinoids from the Baltic region (Estonia): fossil tip‐dating phylogenetics constrains the origin and Ordovician–Silurian diversification of the Flexibilia (Echinodermata)

This study documents previously unknown taxonomic and morphological diversity among early Palaeozoic crinoids. Based on highly complete, well preserved crown material, we describe two new genera from the Ordovician and Silurian of the Baltic region (Estonia) that provide insight into two major features of the geological history of crinoids: the early evolution of the flexible clade during the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE), and their diversification history surrounding the end‐Ordovician mass extinction. The unexpected occurrence of a highly derived sagenocrinid, Tintinnabulicrinus estoniensis gen. et. sp. nov., from Upper Ordovician (lower Katian) rocks of the Baltic palaeocontinent provides high‐resolution temporal, taxonomic and palaeobiogeographical constraints on the origin and early evolution of the Flexibilia. The Silurian (lower Rhuddanian, Llandovery) Paerticrinus arvosus gen. et sp. nov. is the oldest known Silurian crinoid from Baltica and thus provides the earliest Baltic record of crinoids following the aftermath of the end‐Ordovician mass extinction. A Bayesian ‘fossil tip‐dating’ analysis implementing the fossilized birth–death process and a relaxed morphological clock model suggests that flexibles evolved c. 3 million years prior to their oldest fossil record, potentially involving an ancestor–descendant relationship (via ‘budding’ cladogenesis or anagenesis) with the paraphyletic cladid Cupulocrinus. The sagenocrinid subclade rapidly diverged from ‘taxocrinid’ grade crinoids during the final stages of the GOBE, culminating in maximal diversity among Ordovician crinoid faunas on a global scale. Remarkably, diversification patterns indicate little taxonomic turnover among flexibles across the Late Ordovician mass extinction. However, the elimination of closely related clades may have helped pave the way for their subsequent Silurian diversification and increased ecological role in post‐Ordovician Palaeozoic marine communities. This study highlights the significance of studies reporting faunas from undersampled palaeogeographical regions for clade‐based phylogenetic studies and improving estimates of global biodiversity through geological time.     

Detarieae sensu lato (Fabaceae) from the Late Oligocene (27.23 Ma) Guang River flora of north‐western Ethiopia

New species of caesalpinioid legumes, Cynometra sensu lato and Afzelia, are described from the Late Oligocene (27.23 Ma) Guang River flora in north‐western Ethiopia. Both taxa show leaf characteristics that are shared with extant species in the Guineo‐Congolian, Sudanian and/or Zambezian regions of Africa today. The presence of these two species in Ethiopia during the Palaeogene provides further evidence of the importance of the legume tribe Detarieae in northern and north‐eastern Africa throughout much of the Cenozoic, even although the clade is poorly represented in these regions today. The fossil record documents a significant palaeogeographical and evolutionary history of Detarieae in Africa, especially compared with that of Europe and Anatolia. Based on this evidence, it is unlikely that significant diversification of extant African Detarieae took place on the Eurasian landmass. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 163 , 44–54.     

Is evolutionary history repeatedly rewritten in light of new fossil discoveries?

Mass media and popular science journals commonly report that new fossil discoveries have ‘rewritten evolutionary history’. Is this merely journalistic hyperbole or is our sampling of systematic diversity so limited that attempts to derive evolutionary history from these datasets are premature? We use two exemplars—catarrhine primates (Old World monkeys and apes) and non-avian dinosaurs—to investigate how the maturity of datasets can be assessed. Both groups have been intensively studied over the past 200 years and so should represent pinnacles in our knowledge of vertebrate systematic diversity. We test the maturity of these datasets by assessing the completeness of their fossil records, their susceptibility to changes in macroevolutionary hypotheses and the balance of their phylogenies through study time. Catarrhines have shown prolonged stability, with discoveries of new species being evenly distributed across the phylogeny, and thus have had little impact on our understanding of their fossil record, diversification and evolution. The reverse is true for dinosaurs, where the addition of new species has been non-random and, consequentially, their fossil record, tree shape and our understanding of their diversification is rapidly changing. The conclusions derived from these analyses are relevant more generally: the maturity of systematic datasets can and should be assessed before they are exploited to derive grand macroevolutionary hypotheses.     

Quantifying the effects of the break up of Pangaea on global terrestrial diversification with neutral theory

The historic richness of most taxonomic groups increases substantially over geological time. Explanations for this fall broadly into two categories: bias in the fossil record and elevated net rates of diversification in recent periods. For example, the break up of Pangaea and isolation between continents might have increased net diversification rates. In this study, we investigate the effect on terrestrial diversification rates of the increased isolation between land masses brought about by continental drift. We use ecological neutral theory as a means to study geologically complex scenarios tractably. Our models show the effects of simulated geological events that affect all species equally, without the added complexity of further ecological processes. We find that continental drift leads to an increase in diversity only where isolation between continents leads to additional speciation through vicariance, and where higher taxa with very low global diversity are considered. We conclude that continental drift by itself is not sufficient to account for the increase in terrestrial species richness observed in the fossil record.     

The shape of pterosaur evolution: evidence from the fossil record

Abstract Although pterosaurs are a well‐known lineage of Mesozoic flying reptiles, their fossil record and evolutionary dynamics have never been adequately quantified. On the basis of a comprehensive data set of fossil occurrences correlated with taxon‐specific limb measurements, we show that the geological ages of pterosaur specimens closely approximate hypothesized patterns of phylogenetic divergence. Although the fossil record has expanded greatly in recent years, collectorship still approximates a sigmoid curve over time as many more specimens (and thus taxa) still remain undiscovered, yet our data suggest that the pterosaur fossil record is unbiased by sites of exceptional preservation (lagerstätte). This is because as new species are discovered the number of known formations and sites yielding pterosaur fossils has also increased – this would not be expected if the bulk of the record came from just a few exceptional faunas. Pterosaur morphological diversification is, however, strongly age biased: rarefaction analysis shows that peaks of diversity occur in the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous correlated with periods of increased limb disparity. In this respect, pterosaurs appear unique amongst flying vertebrates in that their disparity seems to have peaked relatively late in clade history. Comparative analyses also show that there is little evidence that the evolutionary diversification of pterosaurs was in any way constrained by the appearance and radiation of birds.     

Unravelling the evolutionary origins of biogeographic assemblages

Aim

Floristic and faunal diversity fall within species assemblages that can be grouped into distinct biomes or ecoregions. Understanding the origins of such biogeographic assemblages helps illuminate the processes shaping present‐day diversity patterns and identifies regions with unique or distinct histories. While the fossil record is often sparse, dated phylogenies can provide a window into the evolutionary past of these regions. Here, we present a novel phylogenetic approach to investigate the evolutionary origins of present‐day biogeographic assemblages and highlight their conservation value.

Location

Southern Africa.

Methods

We evaluate the evolutionary turnover separating species clusters in space at different time slices to determine the phylogenetic depth at which the signal for their present‐day structure emerges. We suggest present‐day assemblages with distinct evolutionary histories might represent important units for conservation. We apply our method to the vegetation of southern Africa using a dated phylogeny of the woody flora of the region and explore how the evolutionary history of vegetation types compares to common conservation currencies, including species richness, endemism and threat.

Results

We show the differentiation of most present‐day vegetation types can be traced back to evolutionary splits in the Miocene. The woody flora of the Fynbos is the most evolutionarily distinct, and thus has deeper evolutionary roots, whereas the Savanna and Miombo Woodland show close phylogenetic affinities and likely represent a more recent separation. However, evolutionarily distinct phyloregions do not necessarily capture the most unique phylogenetic diversity, nor are they the most species‐rich or threatened.

Main conclusions

Our approach complements analyses of the fossil record and serves as a link to the history of diversification, migration and extinction of lineages within biogeographic assemblages that is separate from patterns of species richness and endemism. Our analysis reveals how phyloregions capture conservation value not represented by traditional biodiversity metrics.

     

‘Fish’ (Actinopterygii and Elasmobranchii) diversification patterns through deep time

Actinopterygii (ray‐finned fishes) and Elasmobranchii (sharks, skates and rays) represent more than half of today's vertebrate taxic diversity (approximately 33000 species) and form the largest component of vertebrate diversity in extant aquatic ecosystems. Yet, patterns of ‘fish’ evolutionary history remain insufficiently understood and previous studies generally treated each group independently mainly because of their contrasting fossil record composition and corresponding sampling strategies. Because direct reading of palaeodiversity curves is affected by several biases affecting the fossil record, analytical approaches are needed to correct for these biases. In this review, we propose a comprehensive analysis based on comparison of large data sets related to competing phylogenies (including all Recent and fossil taxa) and the fossil record for both groups during the Mesozoic–Cainozoic interval. This approach provides information on the ‘fish’ fossil record quality and on the corrected ‘fish’ deep‐time phylogenetic palaeodiversity signals, with special emphasis on diversification events. Because taxonomic information is preserved after analytical treatment, identified palaeodiversity events are considered both quantitatively and qualitatively and put within corresponding palaeoenvironmental and biological settings. Results indicate a better fossil record quality for elasmobranchs due to their microfossil‐like fossil distribution and their very low diversity in freshwater systems, whereas freshwater actinopterygians are diverse in this realm with lower preservation potential. Several important diversification events are identified at familial and generic levels for elasmobranchs, and marine and freshwater actinopterygians, namely in the Early–Middle Jurassic (elasmobranchs), Late Jurassic (actinopterygians), Early Cretaceous (elasmobranchs, freshwater actinopterygians), Cenomanian (all groups) and the Paleocene–Eocene interval (all groups), the latter two representing the two most exceptional radiations among vertebrates. For each of these events along with the Cretaceous‐Paleogene extinction, we provide an in‐depth review of the taxa involved and factors that may have influenced the diversity patterns observed. Among these, palaeotemperatures, sea‐levels, ocean circulation and productivity as well as continent fragmentation and environment heterogeneity (reef environments) are parameters that largely impacted on ‘fish’ evolutionary history, along with other biotic constraints.     

An analytical approach for estimating fossil record and diversification events in sharks, skates and rays

Background

Modern selachians and their supposed sister group (hybodont sharks) have a long and successful evolutionary history. Yet, although selachian remains are considered relatively common in the fossil record in comparison with other marine vertebrates, little is known about the quality of their fossil record. Similarly, only a few works based on specific time intervals have attempted to identify major events that marked the evolutionary history of this group.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Phylogenetic hypotheses concerning modern selachians’ interrelationships are numerous but differ significantly and no consensus has been found. The aim of the present study is to take advantage of the range of recent phylogenetic hypotheses in order to assess the fit of the selachian fossil record to phylogenies, according to two different branching methods. Compilation of these data allowed the inference of an estimated range of diversity through time and evolutionary events that marked this group over the past 300 Ma are identified. Results indicate that with the exception of high taxonomic ranks (orders), the selachian fossil record is by far imperfect, particularly for generic and post-Triassic data. Timing and amplitude of the various identified events that marked the selachian evolutionary history are discussed.

Conclusion/Significance

Some identified diversity events were mentioned in previous works using alternative methods (Early Jurassic, mid-Cretaceous, K/T boundary and late Paleogene diversity drops), thus reinforcing the efficiency of the methodology presented here in inferring evolutionary events. Other events (Permian/Triassic, Early and Late Cretaceous diversifications; Triassic/Jurassic extinction) are newly identified. Relationships between these events and paleoenvironmental characteristics and other groups’ evolutionary history are proposed.     

Interactions within and between clades shaped the diversification of terrestrial carnivores

A longstanding debate in evolutionary biology and paleontology is whether ecological interactions such as competition impose diversity dependence on speciation and extinction rates. Here, we analyze the fossil record of terrestrial mammalian carnivores in North America and Eurasia using a Bayesian framework to assess whether their diversity dynamics were affected by diversity dependence within and between families (12 in Eurasia, 10 in North America). We found eight instances of within‐clade diversity dependence suppressing speciation rates and detected between‐clade effects increasing extinction rates in six instances. Diversity dependence often involved lineages that migrated between continents and we found that speciation was more responsive to diversity changes within the clade, whereas extinction responded to diversity of taxa in other clades. The analysis of the fossil record of Carnivora suggests that interactions within and between clades are associated with different speciation and extinction regimes, opening room for a broader theory of diversity dependence.     

Permian–Triassic Osteichthyes (bony fishes): diversity dynamics and body size evolution

The Permian and Triassic were key time intervals in the history of life on Earth. Both periods are marked by a series of biotic crises including the most catastrophic of such events, the end‐Permian mass extinction, which eventually led to a major turnover from typical Palaeozoic faunas and floras to those that are emblematic for the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Here we review patterns in Permian–Triassic bony fishes, a group whose evolutionary dynamics are understudied. Based on data from primary literature, we analyse changes in their taxonomic diversity and body size (as a proxy for trophic position) and explore their response to Permian–Triassic events. Diversity and body size are investigated separately for different groups of Osteichthyes (Dipnoi, Actinistia, ‘Palaeopterygii’, ‘Subholostei’, Holostei, Teleosteomorpha), within the marine and freshwater realms and on a global scale (total diversity) as well as across palaeolatitudinal belts. Diversity is also measured for different palaeogeographical provinces. Our results suggest a general trend from low osteichthyan diversity in the Permian to higher levels in the Triassic. Diversity dynamics in the Permian are marked by a decline in freshwater taxa during the Cisuralian. An extinction event during the end‐Guadalupian crisis is not evident from our data, but ‘palaeopterygians’ experienced a significant body size increase across the Guadalupian–Lopingian boundary and these fishes upheld their position as large, top predators from the Late Permian to the Late Triassic. Elevated turnover rates are documented at the Permian–Triassic boundary, and two distinct diversification events are noted in the wake of this biotic crisis, a first one during the Early Triassic (dipnoans, actinistians, ‘palaeopterygians’, ‘subholosteans’) and a second one during the Middle Triassic (‘subholosteans’, neopterygians). The origination of new, small taxa predominantly among these groups during the Middle Triassic event caused a significant reduction in osteichthyan body size. Neopterygii, the clade that encompasses the vast majority of extant fishes, underwent another diversification phase in the Late Triassic. The Triassic radiation of Osteichthyes, predominantly of Actinopterygii, which only occurred after severe extinctions among Chondrichthyes during the Middle–Late Permian, resulted in a profound change within global fish communities, from chondrichthyan‐rich faunas of the Permo‐Carboniferous to typical Mesozoic and Cenozoic associations dominated by actinopterygians. This turnover was not sudden but followed a stepwise pattern, with leaps during extinction events.     

The molecular phylogenetic signature of clades in decline

Molecular phylogenies have been used to study the diversification of many clades. However, current methods for inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies ignore the possibility that clades may be decreasing in diversity, despite the fact that the fossil record shows this to be the case for many groups. Here we investigate the molecular phylogenetic signature of decreasing diversity using the most widely used statistic for inferring diversity dynamics from molecular phylogenies, the γ statistic. We show that if a clade is in decline its molecular phylogeny may show evidence of the decrease in the diversification rate that occurred between its diversification and decline phases. The ability to detect the change in diversification rate depends largely on the ratio of the speciation rates of the diversification and decline phases, the higher the ratio the stronger the signal of the change in diversification rate. Consequently, molecular phylogenies of clades in relative rapid decline do not carry a signature of their decreasing diversification. Further, the signal of the change in diversification rate, if present, declines as the diversity drop. Unfortunately, the molecular signature of clades in decline is the same as the signature produced by diversity dependent diversification. Given this similarity, and the inability of current methods to detect declining diversity, it is likely that some of the extant clades that show a decrease in diversification rate, currently interpreted as evidence for diversity dependent diversification, are in fact in decline. Unless methods can be developed that can discriminate between the different modes of diversification, specifically diversity dependent diversification and declining diversity, we will need the fossil record, or data from some other source, to distinguish between these very different diversity trajectories.     

BOOM AND BUST: ANCIENT AND RECENT DIVERSIFICATION IN BICHIRS (POLYPTERIDAE: ACTINOPTERYGII), A RELICTUAL LINEAGE OF RAY‐FINNED FISHES

Understanding the history that underlies patterns of species richness across the Tree of Life requires an investigation of the mechanisms that not only generate young species‐rich clades, but also those that maintain species‐poor lineages over long stretches of evolutionary time. However, diversification dynamics that underlie ancient species‐poor lineages are often hidden due to a lack of fossil evidence. Using information from the fossil record and time calibrated molecular phylogenies, we investigate the history of lineage diversification in Polypteridae, which is the sister lineage of all other ray‐finned fishes (Actinopterygii). Despite originating at least 390 million years (Myr) ago, molecular timetrees support a Neogene origin for the living polypterid species. Our analyses demonstrate polypterids are exceptionally species depauperate with a stem lineage duration that exceeds 380 million years (Ma) and is significantly longer than the stem lineage durations observed in other ray‐finned fish lineages. Analyses of the fossil record show an early Late Cretaceous (100.5–83.6 Ma) peak in polypterid genus richness, followed by 60 Ma of low richness. The Neogene species radiation and evidence for high‐diversity intervals in the geological past suggest a “boom and bust” pattern of diversification that contrasts with common perceptions of relative evolutionary stasis in so‐called “living fossils.”