Decision Analysis Frameworks for Life-Cycle Impact Assessment

Life‐cycle impact assessments (LCIAs) are complex because they almost always involve uncertain consequences relative to multiple criteria. Several authors have noticed that this is precisely the sort of problem addressed by methods of decision analysis. Despite several experiences of using multipleattribute decision analysis (MADA) methods in LCIA, the possibilities of MADA methods in LCIA are rather poorly elaborated in the field of life‐cycle assessment. In this article we provide an overview of the commonly used MADA methods and discuss LCIA in relation to them. The article also presents how different frames and tools developed by the MADA community can be applied in conducting LCIAs. Although the exact framing of LCIA using decision analysis still merits debate, we show that the similarities between generic decision analysis steps and their LCIA counterparts are clear. Structuring of an assessment problem according to a value tree offers a basis for the definition of impact categories and classification. Value trees can thus be used to ensure that all relevant impact categories and interventions are taken into account in the appropriate manner. The similarities between multiattribute value theory (MAVT) and the current calculation rule applied in LCIA mean that techniques, knowledge, and experiences derived from MAVT can be applied to LCIA. For example, MAVT offers a general solution for the calculation of overall impact values and it can be applied to help discern sound from unsound approaches to value measurement, normalization, weighting, and aggregation in the LCIA model. In addition, the MAVT framework can assist in the methodological development of LCIA because of its well‐established theoretical foundation. The relationship between MAVT and the current LCIA methodology does not preclude application of other MADA methods in the context of LCIA. A need exists to analyze the weaknesses and the strengths of different multiple‐criteria decision analysis methods in order to identify those methods most appropriate for different LCIA applications.     

遗传重组微生物的环境监测

遗传重组微生物 (GMM)的环境监测作为生物安全性评价的重要内容之一,正越来越得到广大科研工作者的密切关注。综述了目前遗传工程菌和重组DNA的环境监测的主要方法。一是基于培养的方法,包括利用选择性培养技术,报告基因,基因探针和PCR,免疫监测等;一是基于免培养的方法,包括显微镜观测法,荧光原位杂交技术 (FISH),基于直接提取微生物总DNA的分子生物学方法等。重点介绍了目前常用的几种报告基因和基于直接提取总DNA的DGGE TGGE方法,同时指出我国应加强GMM遗传监控的分子生物学方法的研究及应用。     

Full Mode and Attribution Mode in Environmental Analysis

Several tools exist for the analysis of the environmental impacts of chains or networks of processes. These relatively simple tools include materials flow accounting (MFA), substance flow analysis (SFA), life-cycle assessment (LCA), energy analysis, and environmentally extended input-output analysis (IOA), all based on fixed input-output relations. They are characterized by the nature of their flow objects, such as products, materials, energy, substances, or money flows, and by their spatial and temporal characteristics. These characteristics are insufficient for their methodological characterization, and sometimes lead to inappropriate use. More clarity is desirable, both for clearer guidance of applications and for a more consistent methodology development. In addition to the nature of the flow object and to spatial and temporal characteristics, another key feature concerns the way in which processes are included in a system to be analyzed.
The inclusion of processes can be done in two fundamentally different ways: according to a full mode of analysis, with the inclusion of all flows and related processes to their full extent as present in a region in a specific period of time; and according to an attribution mode, taking processes into account insofar as these are required for a given social demand, function, or activity, in principle whenever and wherever these processes take place. This distinction, which cuts across families of tools that traditionally belong together, appears to have significant methodological and practical implications. Thus the distinction between the two modes of analysis, however crucial it may be, strengthens the idea of one coherent family of tools for environmental systems analysis.     

Weighting in Practice:Implications for the Use of Life-Cycle Assessment in Decision Making

This article investigates how environmental trade-offs are handled in life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies in some Nordic companies. Through interviews, the use and understanding of weighting methods in decision making was studied. The analysis shows that the decision makers require methods with which to aggregate and help interpret the complex information from life-cycle inventories. They agreed that it was not their own values that should be reflected in such methods, but they were found to have different opinions concerning the value basis that should be used. The analysis also investigates the difficulties arising from using such methods. The decision makers seemed to give a broader meaning to the term weighting, and were more concerned with the comparison between environmental and other aspects than the weighting of different environmental impacts. A conclusion is that decision makers need to be more involved in modeling and interpretation. The role of the analyst should be to interpret the information needs of the decision maker, and help him or her make methodological choices that are consistent with these needs and relevant from his or her point of view. To achieve this, it is important that decision makers do not view LCA as a highly standardized calculation tool, but as a flexible process of collecting, organizing, and interpreting environmental information. Such an approach to LCA increases the chances that the results will be regarded as relevant and useful.     

Estimating diurnal to annual ecosystem parameters by synthesis of a carbon flux model with eddy covariance net ecosystem exchange observations

We performed a synthetic analysis of Harvard Forest net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) time series and a simple ecosystem carbon flux model, the simplified Photosynthesis and Evapo‐Transpiration model (SIPNET). SIPNET runs at a half‐daily time step, and has two vegetation carbon pools, a single aggregated soil carbon pool, and a simple soil moisture sub‐model. We used a stochastic Bayesian parameter estimation technique that provided posterior distributions of the model parameters, conditioned on the observed fluxes and the model equations. In this analysis, we estimated the values of all quantities that govern model behavior, including both rate constants and initial conditions for carbon pools. The purpose of this analysis was not to calibrate the model to make predictions about future fluxes but rather to understand how much information about process controls can be derived directly from the NEE observations. A wavelet decomposition enabled us to assess model performance at multiple time scales from diurnal to decadal. The model parameters are most highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily to seasonal time scales, suggesting that this approach is not useful for calculating annual integrals. However, the ability of the model to fit both the diurnal and seasonal variability patterns in the data simultaneously, using the same parameter set, indicates the effectiveness of this parameter estimation method. Our results quantify the extent to which the eddy covariance data contain information about the ecosystem process parameters represented in the model, and suggest several next steps in model development and observations for improved synthesis of models with flux observations.     

小兴安岭红松针阔叶混交林取样技术的研究

本文研究了小兴安岭红松针阔叶混交林的取样技术。通过对三个群落类型的取样研究,认为所应用的无样地方法适用于该植被类型。研究结果指出,应用无样地方法中的中点象限法,其最小点数是16—18个点,点间距为15m,样线间距为20m。16—18个样点的数据,相当于 600m2的样地资料。林下植被的最小面积是28—32m2,为7—8个2×2(m)随机或均匀分布的样方。     

The Importance of Imports for Household Environmental Impacts

A promising way to reduce environmental impacts of consumer expenditure is through the encouragement of more sustainable consumption patterns. Consumers cause environmental impacts both directly, such as by fuel use in personal cars, and indirectly, by paying for the production of consumables. With increased international trade, the indirect environmental impacts are difficult to determine because a portion of the emissions occurs in different geographical regions. Many previous studies have unrealistically assumed that imports are produced using domestic production technology. For countries with diverging technology and energy mixes the likely errors are significant. This study applies a methodology that explicitly includes technology differences to the case of Norwegian households. It is found that a significant portion of pollution is embodied in Norwegian household imports. Further, a disproportionately large amount of pollution is embodied in imports from developing countries. Overall, as in previous studies, we find that mobility and food are most important in terms of household environmental impacts. By analyzing the imports in more detail we find that for some sectors the majority of emissions occur in foreign regions; in particular, this is true for food, business services, clothing, chemicals, furniture, cars, agriculture, textiles, and most manufactured products.     

Applying Ecological Input-Output Flow Analysis to Material Flows in Industrial Systems

This article, continuing with the themes of the companion article, expounds the capabilities of input-output techniques as applied to material flows in industrial systems. Material flows are the primary focus because of their role in directly linking natural and industrial systems and thereby being fundamental components of environmental issues in industrial economies. The specific topic in this article concerns several material flow metrics used to characterize system behavior that are derived from the ecological development of input-output techniques; most notable of these metrics are several measures of material cycling and a measure of the number of processes visited by material while in a system. These metrics are shown to be useful in analyzing the state of material flow systems. Further-more, the metrics are shown to be a central link in connecting input-output flow analysis to synthesis (i.e., the process of using measurements of system behavior to design changes to that system). By connecting the flow metrics to both environmental objectives and controllable aspects of flow models, changes to existing flow systems are synthesized to generate improved system behavior. To bring this pair of articles to a close, several limitations of input-output flow analysis are summarized with the goal of stimulating further interest and research.     

A year-round study on functional relationships of airborne fungi with meteorological factors

Air sampling was conducted in Waterloo, Canada throughout 1992. Functional relationships between aeromycota and meteorological factors were analysed. The meteorological factors were, in descending order of importance: mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean wind speed, relative humidity (RH), rain, maximum wind speed and snow. The most important airborne fungal propagules in descending order were: total fungal spores, unidentified Ascomycetes,Cladosporium, Coprinus, unidentified Basidiomycetes,Alternaria and unidentified fungi. Most airborne fungal taxa had highly significant relationship with temperature, butAspergillus/Penicillium, hyphal fragments andEpicoccum did not.Epicoccum and hyphal fragments were positively associated with wind speed. In comparison with other airborne fungal taxa,Leptosphaeria and unidentified Ascomycetes were more closely correlated with rain and RH during the growing season.     

Edge-corrected Estimators for the Reduced Second Moment Measure of Point Processes

A new edge-corrected estimator is proposed for the second moment cumulative function K(t) introduced by Ripley (1977, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 39, 172–212). This new estimator is compared by simulation methods with existing edge-corrected estimators in the context of both K(t) and L(t) functions which are used to study point patterns. The results of the simulation study suggests that the new estimator provides almost unbiased estimates of K(t) and L(t) and has a smaller mean squared error than its predecessors.     

Applying Ecological Input-Output Flow Analysis to Material Flows in Industrial Systems: Part I: Tracing Flows

Input-output mathematics, which allows a modeler to fully consider direct and indirect relationships among conserved flows in a system, has a long history in economics with prominent use dating to Leontief in the 1930s. Nearly all previous industrial applications of input-output analysis have been grounded in the monetary flows of an economy. Here however, because of the central nature of physical flows in the environmental impact of industry, we consider physical flows to be a fundamental component of an industrial economy. Hence, we propose an input-output based approach for modeling physical flows in industry independent of their monetary implications.
In this first part of a two-part article, a framework for using input-output mathematics to model material and energy flows is constructed from a foundation laid by previous research in nutrient and energy cycling in natural ecosystems. The mathematics of input-output flow analysis is presented from an ecological perspective, culminating in two core capabilities: tracing of flows with environs (investigated in this article) and characterizing system behavior with flow metrics (presented in the second article). We assert that environ analysis is an effective means for tracing flows through industrial systems while fully considering direct and indirect flow paths. We explore material flows of aluminum and five other metals in depth using environ analysis in this article.     

Structure of sterically hindered aryl derivatives of five-membered nitrogen containing heterocyclicortho-analogs of POPOP

The molecular conformation of three newly synthesized, sterically hindered aryl derivatives of five-membered nitrogen-containing heterocyclicortho-analogs of POPOP were studied by X-ray analysis and vibrational spectroscopy. It was shown that molecules of the compounds in the crystalline state and in solution are non-planar and asymmetric.     

基于物质流分析和数据包络分析的区域生态效率评价——以江苏省为例

区域生态效率(eco-efficiency)评价是考量区域可持发展的重要内容.基于物质流分析(material flow analysis, MFA)构建区域生态效率评价指标体系,并将污染物排放作为一种非期望输入引入到数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis, DEA)模型中,以江苏省(1990～2005年)为例进行生态效率分析评价.结果表明,江苏省的区域生态效率在1990～2005年期间呈现逐步上升的趋势.但是,同期的总物质投入(total material input, TMI)、物质需求总量(total material requirement, TMR)和污染物排放量也呈上升趋势.因此,江苏省社会经济发展和环境影响总体上呈现"弱脱钩(weak de-link)".     

Food Consumption and Nutrient Flows: Nitrogen in Sweden Since the 1870s

Changes in food consumption and related processes have a significant impact on the flow of nitrogen in the environment. This study identifies both flows within the system and emissions to the hydrosphere and atmosphere. A case study of an average inhabitant of the city of Linköping, Sweden, covers the years 1870, 1900, 1950, and 2000 and includes changes in food consumption and processing, agricultural production, and organic waste handling practices. Emissions to the hydrosphere from organic waste handling increased from 0.57 kilograms of nitrogen per capita per year (kg N/cap per year) to 3.1 kg N/cap per year, whereas the total flow of nitrogen to waste deposits grew from a negligible amount to 1.7 kg N/cap per year. The largest flow of nitrogen during the entire period came from fodder. The input of chemical fertilizer rose gradually to a high level of 15 kg N/cap per year in the year 2000. The total load per capita disposed of to the environment decreased during these 130 years by about 30%.     

Differential Convergence of Life-Cycle Inventories toward Upstream Production Layers

We present an input-output analysis of the life-cycle labor, land, and greenhouse gas (GHG) requirements of alternative options for three case studies: investing money in a new vehicle versus in repairs of an existing vehicle (labor), passenger transport modes for a trip between Sydney and Melbourne (land use), and renewable electricity generation (GHG emissions). These case studies were chosen to demonstrate the possibility of rank crossovers in life-cycle inventory (LCI) results as system boundaries are expanded and upstream production inputs are taken into account. They demonstrate that differential convergence can cause crossovers in the ranking of inventories for alternative functional units occurring at second-and higher-order upstream production layers. These production layers are often excluded in conventional process-type life-cycle assessment (LCA) by the delineation of a finite system boundary, leading to a systematic truncation error within the LCI. The exclusion of higher-order upstream inputs can be responsible for ranking crossovers going unnoticed. In this case, an incomplete conventional process-type LCA of two alternative options can result in preferences and recommendations to decision makers that are different from preferences and recommendations concluded from a complete hybrid input-output-based assessment. Therefore, the need to avoid misleading effects on the ranking of alternative functional units due to differential convergence supports the practice of hybrid input-output-based LCA techniques.     

Molecular docking, 3D-QSAR,molecular dynamics,synthesis and anticancer activity of tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK 2) inhibitors

Abstract

A therapeutic rationale is proposed by selectively targeting tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK 2) to obtain potent TYK 2 inhibitors by molecular modeling studies. In the present study, we have taken tyrosine kinase (TYK 2) inhibitors and carried out molecular docking, 3?D quantitative structure–activity relationship (3D-QSAR) analysis and molecular dynamics (MD). Based on the 3D-QSAR results thirteen new compounds (R-1 to R-13) were designed and synthesized in good yields. The synthesized molecules were evaluated for their in vitro anticancer activity against LnCap and A549 cell lines. The molecules R-1, R-3, R-5, R-7, and R-10 exhibited considerable anti cancer activity.     

中红侧沟茧蜂寄主——二龄棉铃虫幼虫血淋巴成分的初步分析

对二龄棉铃虫Ｈｅｌｉｏｔｈｉｓａｒｍｉｇｅｒａ（Ｈüｂｎｅｒ）幼虫血淋巴的二种样品（去血细胞和未去血细胞）中的干物重、含水量、灰分、蛋白质、总糖、还原糖、总脂、胆固醇、维生素Ｃ的含量,分别进行了定量分析,对未去血细胞的血淋巴进行了氨基酸测定;同时,对蛋白质组份、脂类组份也进行了定性分析     

On the precision of the conditionally autoregressive prior in spatial models

Bayesian analyses of spatial data often use a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior, which can be written as the kernel of an improper density that depends on a precision parameter tau that is typically unknown. To include tau in the Bayesian analysis, the kernel must be multiplied by tau(k) for some k. This article rigorously derives k = (n - I)/2 for the L2 norm CAR prior (also called a Gaussian Markov random field model) and k = n - I for the L1 norm CAR prior, where n is the number of regions and I the number of "islands" (disconnected groups of regions) in the spatial map. Since I = 1 for a spatial structure defining a connected graph, this supports Knorr-Held's (2002, in Highly Structured Stochastic Systems, 260-264) suggestion that k = (n - 1)/2 in the L2 norm case, instead of the more common k = n/2. We illustrate the practical significance of our results using a periodontal example.