基于支持向量回归的棉铃虫蛹发育历期估测

温度与发育速率关系模拟是昆虫学研究的一个重要内容, 传统基于经验风险最小的非线性参数模型(Logan模型、Lactin模型和王氏模型)存在诸多弊端。本文基于结构风险最小的改进支持向量回归（SVR）研究温度与棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera蛹发育历期关系。结果表明: 与传统非线性模型相比, SVR模型性能优异; 基于全部92个样本, SVR模型拟合和留一法预测的决定系数R²分别为0.998和0.996, 估测的蛹期三基点温度更可信。从全部样本中依温度均匀选取部分样本实施独立预测, 当训练集为20个样本时, SVR模型独立预测的R²为0.981, 优于传统非线性模型中独立预测最佳的Lactin模型（R²=0.958）; 当训练集进一步减少到12个样本时, SVR模型的R²仅降低到0.964, 而传统非线性模型均已不适用。结果提示SVR模型在小样本情况下较传统非线性模型优势明显, 在昆虫发育历期估测建模中有应用前景。     

Temperature-dependent development of Chilocorus bipustulatus (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

The effect of temperature on development and survival of Chilocorus bipustulatus L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), a predator of many scale insects, was studied under laboratory conditions. The duration of development of egg, first, second, third, and fourth larval instars, pupa, and preovioposition period at seven constant temperatures (15, 17.5, 20, 25, 30, 32.5, and 35°C) was measured. Development time decreased significantly with increasing temperature within the range 15-30°C. Survival was higher at medium temperatures (17.5-30(ο)C) in comparison with that at more extreme temperature regimens (15 and >30(ο)C). Egg and first larval instars were the stages where C. bipustulatus suffered the highest mortality levels at all temperatures. The highest survival was recorded when experimental individuals were older than the third larval instar. Thermal requirements of development (developmental thresholds, thermal constant, optimum temperature) of C. bipustulatus were estimated with application of linear and one nonlinear models (Logan I). Upper and lower developmental thresholds ranged between 35.2-37.9 and 11.1-13.0°C, respectively. The optimum temperature for development (where maximum rate of development occurs) was estimated at between 33.6 and 34.7°C. The thermal constant for total development was estimated 474.7 degree-days.     

Use of ROOT to build a software optimized for parameter estimation and simulations with Distributed Delay Model

ROOT is a software package developed by a CERN project started in 1994 by René Brun for statistical analysis in high-energy physics. This software package can also be used in the field of protecting plants against pest insects. Indeed, for a long time there has been a significant use of the Distributed-Delay Model, but there is no specific software available to date that is useful for following the research from the first step to simulations and field validations.This work, through ROOT's libraries, builds a series of macros that consent to do non-linear fits with functions such as Erlang PDF, linear-rate, Logan, Briére, Sharpe and De Michele, thereby giving support to the parameters-estimate step in laboratory sessions and then numerically solving the Distributed-Delay Model equations. This study supplies results both graphically and numerically.     

用非线性模型估测恒温和变温下棉铃虫蛹的发育率

为了深入分析和探讨昆虫发育与环境温度的关系, 在恒温（15~37℃）和交替变温（12/18~34/40℃）下测定了棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera蛹的发育历期(d),分别用线性模型和非线性模型（Logan模型﹑Lactin模型和王氏模型）拟合其发育率(1/d)数据。结果表明,这3个非线性模型能更准确地描述发育率与温度之间的曲线关系,判定系数（R2）在0.9878～0.9991之间。对全部观测数据的进一步研究表明,只要有6个分布合适的观测数据,就可以用这些非线性模型获得相当满意的估测效果。如果缺乏高温下的测定数据,用非线性模型预测的昆虫发育率可能失真。分析了蛹在恒温和变温下发育率差异的可能原因,讨论了应用这3个非线性模型预测蛹期发育的优点和缺点,指出用非线性模型取代线性日·度模型进行害虫发生预测和益虫饲养管理的合理性和必要性。     

Estimating and comparing thermal performance curves

I show how one can estimate the shape of a thermal performance curve using information theory. This approach ranks plausible models by their Akaike information criterion (AIC), which is a measure of a model's ability to describe the data discounted by the model's complexity. I analyze previously published data to demonstrate how one applies this approach to describe a thermal performance curve. This exemplary analysis produced two interesting results. First, a model with a very high r² (a modified Gaussian function) appeared to overfit the data. Second, the model favored by information theory (a Gaussian function) has been used widely in optimality studies of thermal performance curves. Finally, I discuss the choice between regression and ANOVA when comparing thermal performance curves and highlight a superior method called template mode of variation. Much progress can be made by abandoning traditional methods for a method that combines information theory with template mode of variation.     

Thermal requirement for development of Sancassania rodionovi (Acari: Acaridae) on mushrooms

The free-living mite species Sancassania rodionovi (Zachvatkin) (Acari: Acaridae), is a serious pest of mushrooms in Iran. Studies were conducted to examine the development of this mite in relation to temperature on two mushroom species: Agaricus bisporus Lange (button mushroom) and Pleurotus ostreatus Kummer (oyster mushroom). The developmental time of this acarid mite was studied at eight constant temperatures, ranging from 5 to 40 degrees C, and developmental rates were modeled as a function of temperature. Sancassania rodionovi completed immature development in 17.35 +/- 0.58 and 20.17 +/- 0.88 d at 25 degrees C on button and oyster mushrooms, respectively. When the mite fed on button mushroom, the rate of development increased gradually from 10 to 35 degrees C. Using a linear model, the developmental zero was estimated to be 3.50 degrees C with a thermal constant of 357.14 degree-days. The Logan 10, Briere 1, and Thermodynamic models adequately described the data for this mite and yielded R2 values >0.95; these models provided estimates of optimum temperature for development of 33.244, 32.145, and 32.148 degrees C, respectively. Understanding the influence of temperature on development of S. rodionovi is discussed with respect to pest management in mushroom production.     

Common-intersection hypothesis of development rate lines of ectotherms within a taxon revisited

The relationship between development rate of an ectotherm and temperature in experiments where insects or mites are reared under several constant temperatures, while non-linear over the entire range, can be approximately described by a line in the mid-temperature range. It was hypothesized that the development rate lines of ectotherms within a taxon such as a family would have a common intersection. Thus for a given temperature, the development time should be the same for all the species within any specified taxon. In the current study, the data on temperature-dependent development rates of species of the Aphididae and Tetranychidae families were used to test the validity of the common-intersection hypothesis. The hypothesis was supported with either dataset used. In addition, the current study tested the common-intersection hypothesis through mathematical analysis on the basis of two linear relationships (i.e., the linear relationship between temperature and development rate and that between the lower developmental threshold and the sum of effective temperatures). An attempt was made to combine the rate isomorphy hypothesis that all the lower developmental thresholds of different stages were assumed to be equal for a single species with the common-intersection hypothesis for related species within a taxon and hypothesize that if these two hypotheses hold, then for any developmental stages a common temperature of all stages should exist.     

Temperature related effects on embryonic development of the Mediterranean locust, Dociostaurus maroccanus

Laboratory studies were conducted to assess the effect of temperature on the development of the eggs of Dociostaurus maroccanus (Thunberg) (Orthoptera, Acrididae) during anatrepsis (stages I–XIV) and during catatrepsis (stages XV–XX). The developmental rates of anatrepsis were studied at five constant temperatures ranging from 10 to 30°C. Egg development occurred over the entire range but at 10°C the embryos were unable to complete anatrepsis. The relationship between temperature and developmental times for completing anatrepsis was analysed by the non‐linear Logan type III model. The optimal temperature estimated for the development of eggs during anatrepsis was 24.7°C; the lower and upper thermal thresholds were 9°C and 31°C, respectively. Once the embryos completed anatrepsis, only those incubated at 15°C continued morphogenesis beyond stage XIV (diapause stage) without a low‐temperature exposure period. The developmental rate of catatrepsis was studied at four constant temperatures ranging from 15°C to 30°C after exposure to low‐temperature, 10°C, for 30, 60 or 90 days. For catatrepsis, temperature and developmental time were linearly and inversely related. Linear regression was used to estimate the lower developmental threshold and the degree days requirements for catatrepsis. Both decreased with longer exposure to the low temperature; the former from 13.8°C to 10.5°C and the latter from 212.8 to 171.5 degree days, following 30 and 90 days at 10°C, respectively. Our results improve the ability of decision support systems for Mediterranean locust pest management by providing better forecasts to land managers and pest advisors.     

Temperature-dependent development of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Macrolophus pygmaeus</Emphasis> and its applicability to biological control

A linear model and three nonlinear models (Logan type III, Lactin and Brière) were applied to Macrolophus pygmaeus (Rambur) (Hemiptera: Miridae) at constant temperatures and validated under diel temperature variation, and field conditions. Complete development from egg to adult, with >80% survivorship, occurred at nine constant temperatures between 15 and 32 °C. Total developmental time decreased from a maximum at 15 °C (68.48 days) to a minimum at 30 °C (18.69 days) and then increased at 32 °C (23.44 days). Optimal survival and the highest developmental rate occurred within the range of 27–30 °C. The adjusted determination coefficients were high for linear and nonlinear models (>0.89). Field validation showed high levels of accuracy in all models (≥93.4%). These valid mathematical models contribute to optimal application, field management, and mass rearing of M. pygmaeus for its applicability to biological control.     

APOBEC2, a selective inhibitor of TGFβ signaling, regulates left-right axis specification during early embryogenesis

The specification of left–right asymmetry is an evolutionarily conserved developmental process in vertebrates. The interplay between two TGFβ ligands, Derrière/GDF1 and Xnr1/Nodal, together with inhibitors such as Lefty and Coco/Cerl2, have been shown to provide the signals that lead to the establishment of laterality. However, molecular events leading to and following these signals remain mostly unknown. We find that APOBEC2, a member of the cytidine deaminase family of DNA/RNA editing enzymes, is induced by TGFβ signaling, and that its activity is necessary to specify the left–right axis in Xenopus and zebrafish embryos. Surprisingly, we find that APOBEC2 selectively inhibits Derrière, but not Xnr1, signaling. The inhibitory effect is conserved, as APOBEC2 blocks TGFβ signaling, and promotes muscle differentiation, in a mammalian myoblastic cell line. This demonstrates for the first time that a putative RNA/DNA editing enzyme regulates TGFβ signaling and plays a major role in development.     

Effects of variable and constant temperatures on the embryonic development and survival of a new grape pest, Xylotrechus arvicola (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

Xylotrechus arvicola Olivier (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) has become a new expanding pest in grape (Vitis spp.) crops. To better improve control tactics, the consequences of 11 constant (12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30, 32, 34, 35 and 36°C) and nine variable temperatures (with equal mean temperatures at each of the nine constant rates ranging from 15 to 35°C) on survival and embryonic development were studied. The eggs were able to complete development at constant temperatures between 15 and 35°C, with mortality rates at the extremes of the range of two and 81.5%, respectively. Using variable temperatures a mortality rate of 38.9% at a mean temperature of 15°C and 99% at 35°C was observed. The range of time for embryonic development was 29.5 d at 15°C to 6 d at 32°C at constant temperatures, and from 29.6 d at 15°C to 7.2 d at 32°C at variable temperatures. The goodness-of-fit of different development models was evaluated for the relationship between the development rate and temperature. The models that gave the best fit were the Logan type III for constant temperatures and the Brière for variable temperatures. Optimum temperatures were estimated to be from 31.7 to 32.9°C. The models that best described embryo development under natural field conditions were the Logan type III model for constant temperatures (98.7% adjustment) and the Lactin model for variable temperatures (99.2% adjustment). Nonlinear models predicted faster development at constant temperatures and slower development at variable ones when compared with real field development, whereas the linear model always predicted faster development than what actually took place.     

Developmental and reproductive biology of Scirtothrips perseae (Thysanoptera: Thripidae): a new avocado pest in California

The developmental and reproductive biology of a new avocado pest, Scirtothrips perseae Nakahara, was determined in the laboratory at five constant temperatures, 15, 20, 25, 27.5 and 30 degrees C. At 20 degrees C, S. perseae exhibited greatest larval to adult survivorship (41%), and mated females produced a greater proportion of female offspring at this temperature when compared to 15, 25, 27.5 and 30 degrees C. Average lifetime fecundity and preoviposition period was greatest at 15 degrees C at 39.6 eggs per female and 17.6 days, respectively. Jackknifed estimates of net reproduction (Ro), capacity for increase (rc), intrinsic rate of increase (rm), and finite rate of increase (lambda) were all significantly greater at 20 degrees C than corresponding values at 15, 25 and 27.5 degrees C. Population doubling time (Td) was significantly lower at 20 degrees C, indicating S. perseae populations can double 33-71% faster at this temperature in comparison to 15, 25 and 27.5 degrees C. Mean adult longevity decreased with increasing temperature, from a maximum of 52.4 days at 15 degrees C to a minimum of 2.4 days at 30 degrees C. Developmental rates increased linearly with increasing temperatures for eggs and rates were non-linear for development of first and second instar larvae, propupae, pupae, and for egg to adult development. Linear regression and fitting of the modified Logan model to developmental rate data for egg to adult development estimated that 344.8 day degrees were required above a minimum threshold of 6.9 degrees C to complete development. An upper developmental threshold was estimated at 37.6 degrees C with an optimal temperature of 30.5 degrees C for egg to adult development. Unmated females produced only male offspring confirming arrhenotoky in S. perseae.     

Fractional Calculus in Biomechanics: A 3D Viscoelastic Model Using Regularized Fractional Derivative Kernels with Application to the Human Calcaneal Fat Pad

A viscoelastic model of the K-BKZ (Kaye, Technical Report 134, College of Aeronautics, Cranfield 1962; Bernstein et al., Trans Soc Rheol 7: 391–410, 1963) type is developed for isotropic biological tissues and applied to the fat pad of the human heel. To facilitate this pursuit, a class of elastic solids is introduced through a novel strain-energy function whose elements possess strong ellipticity, and therefore lead to stable material models. This elastic potential – via the K-BKZ hypothesis – also produces the tensorial structure of the viscoelastic model. Candidate sets of functions are proposed for the elastic and viscoelastic material functions present in the model, including two functions whose origins lie in the fractional calculus. The Akaike information criterion is used to perform multi-model inference, enabling an objective selection to be made as to the best material function from within a candidate set.Dedicated to Prof. Ronald L. Bagley.     

Influence of temperature on the development, reproduction and longevity of Ceratothripoides claratris (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) on tomatoes

Ceratothripoides claratris (Shumsher) is a serious pest attacking tomatoes in Thailand. Temperature-dependent development of C. claratris was studied at seven constant temperatures, i.e. 22, 25, 27, 30, 34, 35 and 40 degrees C. Pre-adult survivorship was greatest (95%) at 25 and 30 degrees C and shortest at 22 degrees C. Egg-to-adult time decreased within the range of 20 to 30 degrees C and at 34 degrees C it started to increase. The lower thermal threshold for egg-to-adult development was estimated at 16 and 18 degrees C by linear regression and the modified Logan model, respectively. The optimum temperature for egg-to-adult development was estimated at 32-33 degrees C by the modified Logan model. The influence of temperature on reproduction and longevity of C. claratris was determined at 25, 30 and 35 and 40 degrees C. Both inseminated and virgin females failed to reproduce at 40 degrees C. Virgin females produced only male offspring, confirming arrhenotoky. The sex ratio of the offspring of fertilized females was strongly female-biased, except at 25 degrees C. Mean total fecundity per female and mean daily total fecundity per female were highest for both virgin and inseminated females at 30 degrees C. Female longevity was longest at 25 degrees C and shortest at 40 degrees C. Male longevity was longest at 30 degrees C and shortest at 40 degrees C. The net reproductive rate (R0) and intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm) was greatest at 30 degrees C while, mean generation time (G) and the doubling time (t) were highest at 25 degrees C. The finite rate of increase (lambda) was fairly constant (1.1-1.5 days) over the three temperatures tested. The pest potential of C. claratris for tropical Asia is discussed.     

A critical review of the use and performance of different function types for modeling temperature-dependent development of arthropod larvae

Temperature-dependent development influences production rates of arthropods, including crustaceans important to fisheries and agricultural pests. Numerous candidate equation types (development functions) exist to describe the effect of temperature on development time, yet most studies use only a single type of equation and there is no consensus as to which, if any model predicts development rates better than the others, nor what the consequences of selecting a potentially incorrect model equation are on predicted development times. In this study, a literature search was performed of studies fitting development functions to development data of arthropod larvae (99 species). The published data of most (79) of these species were then fit with 33 commonly-used development functions. Overall performance of each function type and consequences of using a function other than the best one to model data were assessed. Performance was also related to taxonomy and the range of temperatures examined. The majority (91.1%) of studies were found to not use the best function out of those tested. Using the incorrect model lead to significantly less accurate (e.g., mean difference±SE 85.9±27.4%, range: −1.7 to 1725.5%) predictions of development times than the best function. Overall, more complex functions performed poorly relative to simpler ones. However, performance of some complex functions improved when wide temperature ranges were tested, which tended to be confined to studies of insects or arachnids compared with those of crustaceans. Results indicate the biological significance of choosing the best-fitting model to describe temperature-dependent development time data.     

Modeling soil CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions from ecosystems

We present a new soil respiration model, describe a formal model testing procedure, and compare our model with five alternative models using an extensive data set of observed soil respiration. Gas flux data from rangeland soils that included a large number of measurements at low temperatures were used to model soil CO₂ emissions as a function of soil temperature and water content. Our arctangent temperature function predicts that Q₁₀ values vary inversely with temperature and that CO₂ fluxes are significant below 0 °C. Independent data representing a broad range of ecosystems and temperature values were used for model testing. The effects of plant phenology, differences in substrate availability among sites, and water limitation were accounted for so that the temperature equations could be fairly evaluated. Four of the six tested models did equally well at simulating the observed soil CO₂ respiration rates. However, the arctangent variable Q₁₀ model agreed closely with observed Q₁₀ values over a wide range of temperatures (r² = 0.94) and was superior to published variable Q₁₀ equations using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). The arctangent temperature equation explained 16–85% of the observed intra-site variability in CO₂ flux rates. Including a water stress factor yielded a stronger correlation than temperature alone only in the dryland soils. The observed change in Q₁₀ with increasing temperature was the same for data sets that included only heterotrophic respiration and data sets that included both heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration.     

Are development and growth of pea aphids,Acyrthosiphon pisum,in North America adapted to local temperatures?

Summary Developmental rate and adult weight were studied at constant temperatures from 9.8 to 27.9°C for 18 clones from each of five populations of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris), from locations between 39 and 53°N latitude in central North America. The response of developmental rate to temperature for each clone was accurately described by a three parameter non-linear equation. Adult weight usually decreased with increasing rearing temperature, but the shape of the response to temperature varied among clones. Variation in the developmental parameters was greater among clones within populations than among populations. No consistent trends were observed in the developmental parameters or adult weights either with latitude or the long term average temperatures at the locations. We conclude that previously reported geographic variation in the developmental threshold of this species, which was attributed to local adaptation, occurred either because the clones tested were not representative of the populations or because rearing methods differed among studies. The results are discussed in relation to the hypothesis that life history traits which are temperature sensitive are adapted to local thermal environments.Contribution No. 1257, Agriculture Canada, Research Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada     

Developmental temperature responses of Chrysoperla agilis (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae), a member of the European carnea cryptic species group

Chrysoperla agilis Henry et al. is one of the five cryptic species of the carnea group found in Europe. Identification of these species is mainly based on the distinct mating signals produced by both females and males prior to copulation, although there are also morphological traits that can be used to distinguish among different cryptic species. Ecological and physiological cryptic species-specific differences may affect their potential as important biological agents in certain agroecosystems. To understand the effects of temperature on the life-history traits of C. agilis preimaginal development, adult longevity and reproduction were studied at seven temperatures. Temperature affected the development, survival and reproduction of C. agilis. Developmental time ranged from approximately 62 days at 15 °C to 15 days at 30 °C. Survival percentages ranged from 42% at 15 °C to 76% at 27 °C. One linear and five nonlinear models (Briere I, II, Logan 6, Lactin and Taylor) used to model preimaginal development were tested to describe the relationship between temperature and developmental rate. Logan 6 model fitted the data of egg to adult development best according to the criteria adopted for the model evaluation. The predicted lower developmental threshold temperatures were 11.4 °C and 11.8 °C (linear model), whereas the predicted upper threshold temperatures (Logan 6 model) were 36.6 and 36.9 °C for females and males, respectively. Adult life span, preoviposition period and lifetime cumulative oviposition were significantly affected by temperature. The effect of rearing temperature on the demographic parameters is well summarized with the estimated values of the intrinsic rate of increase (r_m) which ranged from 0.0269 at 15 °C to 0.0890 at 32 °C and the highest value recorded at 27 °C (0.1530). These results could be useful in mass rearing C. agilis and predicting its population dynamics in the field.     

Temperature-dependent development and potential distribution of Episimus utilis (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), a candidate biological control agent of Brazilian peppertree (Sapindales: Anacardiaceae) in Florida

The invasive Brazilian peppertree (Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi), native to South America, is widely established throughout central and south Florida. The defoliating leaflet-roller Episimus utilis Zimmerman was selected as potential biocontrol agent of this invasive species. The objectives of this study were to determine development rate and survival of E. utilis at seven constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 33, and 35 degrees C) and generate prediction maps of the number of generations per year this species may exhibit in the United States. The rate of development of E. utilis as a function of temperature was modeled using linear regression to estimate a lower developmental threshold of 9.6 degrees C and the degree-day requirement of 588. The Logan nonlinear regression model was used to estimate an upper developmental threshold of 33 degrees C. Cold tolerance of E. utilis was examined using all insect stages, and each stage was exposed to three constant temperatures (10, 5, 0 degrees C) for 0.5, 1, 2, 4, and 8 d (or until all insects died). The pupal stage was the most cold tolerant with 100% mortality after 12 d at 0 degrees C. The pupal lethal times at 5 (Ltime50 = 10 d, Ltime90 = 28 d) and 0 degrees C (Ltime50 = 5 d, Ltime90 = 9 d) were used to generate isothermal lines to predict favorable regions for E. utilis establishment. A GIS map was generated to predict the number of generations of E. utilis (range, 0.5-9.8) across all Brazilian peppertree range in the United States. The potential for establishment of E. utilis and its probable distribution in the continental United States was examined.