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1.
David W. Dowdy J. Lucian Davis Saskia den Boon Nicholas D. Walter Achilles Katamba Adithya Cattamanchi 《PloS one》2013,8(8)
Objective
To compare the population-level impact of two World Health Organization-endorsed strategies for improving the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB): same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid, USA).Methods
We created a compartmental transmission model of TB in a representative African community, fit to the regional incidence and mortality of TB and HIV. We compared the population-level reduction in TB burden over ten years achievable with implementation over two years of same-day microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF testing, and the combination of both approaches.Findings
Same-day microscopy averted an estimated 11.0% of TB incidence over ten years (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3.3%–22.5%), and prevented 11.8% of all TB deaths (95% UR: 7.7%–27.1%). Scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF to all centralized laboratories to achieve 75% population coverage had similar impact on incidence (9.3% reduction, 95% UR: 1.9%–21.5%) and greater effect on mortality (23.8% reduction, 95% UR: 8.6%–33.4%). Combining the two strategies (i.e., same-day microscopy plus Xpert MTB/RIF) generated synergistic effects: an 18.7% reduction in incidence (95% UR: 5.6%–39.2%) and 33.1% reduction in TB mortality (95% UR: 18.1%–50.2%). By the end of year ten, combining same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF could reduce annual TB mortality by 44% relative to the current standard of care.Conclusion
Scaling up novel diagnostic tests for TB and optimizing existing ones are complementary strategies that, when combined, may have substantial impact on TB epidemics in Africa. 相似文献2.
Background
There is growing concern that interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) are being used off-label for the diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB) disease in many high-burden settings, including India, where the background prevalence of latent TB infection is high. We analyzed the costs and consequences of using IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India from the perspective of the Indian TB control sector.Methods and Findings
We constructed a decision analytic model to estimate the incremental cost and effectiveness of IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India. We compared a reference scenario of clinical examination and non-microbiological tests against scenarios in which clinical diagnosis was augmented by the addition of either sputum smear microscopy, IGRA, or Xpert MTB/RIF. We examined costs (in 2013 US dollars) and consequences from the perspective of the Indian healthcare sector. Relative to sputum smear microscopy, use of IGRA for active TB resulted in 23,700 (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3,800 – 38,300) additional true-positive diagnoses, but at the expense of 315,700 (95% UR: 118,300 – 388,400) additional false-positive diagnoses and an incremental cost of US$49.3 million (95% UR: $34.9 – $58.0 million) (2.9 billion Indian Rupees). Relative to Xpert MTB/RIF (including the cost of treatment for drug resistant TB), use of IGRA led to 400 additional TB cases treated (95% UR: [-8,000] – 16,200), 370,600 (95% UR: 252,200 – 441,700) more false-positive diagnoses, 70,400 (95% UR: [-7,900] – 247,200) fewer disability-adjusted life years averted, and US$14.6 million (95%UR: [-$7.2] – $28.7 million) (854 million Indian Rupees) in additional costs.Conclusion
Using IGRAs for diagnosis of active TB in a setting like India results in tremendous overtreatment of people without TB, and substantial incremental cost with little gain in health. These results support the policies by WHO and Standards for TB Care in India, which discourage the use of IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India and similar settings. 相似文献3.
Background
Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is resistant to both rifampicin (RIF) and isoniazid (INH). Whereas many TB diagnostics detect RIF-resistance, few detect INH-monoresistance, which is common and may increase risk of acquired MDR-TB. Whether inclusion of INH-resistance in a first-line rapid test for TB would have an important impact on MDR-TB rates remains uncertain.Methods
We developed a transmission model to evaluate three tests in a population similar to that of India: a rapid molecular test for TB, the same test plus RIF-resistance detection (“TB+RIF”), and detection of RIF and INH-resistance (“TB+RIF/INH”). Our primary outcome was the prevalence of INH-resistant and MDR-TB at ten years.Results
Compared to the TB test alone and assuming treatment of all diagnosed MDR cases, the TB+RIF test reduced the prevalence of MDR-TB among all TB cases from 5.5% to 3.8% (30.6% reduction, 95% uncertainty range, UR: 17–54%). Despite using liberal assumptions about the impact of INH-monoresistance on treatment outcomes and MDR-TB acquisition, expansion from TB+RIF to TB+RIF/INH lowered this prevalence only from 3.8% to 3.6% further (4% reduction, 95% UR: 3–7%) and INH-monoresistant TB from 15.8% to 15.1% (4% reduction, 95% UR: (-8)-19%).Conclusion
When added to a rapid test for TB plus RIF-resistance, detection of INH-resistance has minimal impact on transmission of TB, MDR-TB, and INH-monoresistant TB. 相似文献4.
Ejaz Qadeer Razia Fatima Aashifa Yaqoob Sabira Tahseen Mahboob Ul Haq Abdul Ghafoor Muhammad Asif Masja Straetemans Edine W. Tiemersma 《PloS one》2016,11(2)
Background
We aimed to determine the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) amongst the adult population in 2010–2011 in Pakistan.Method
A nationwide cross-sectional survey with multistage cluster sampling was conducted among adults (≥15 years) in 95 clusters in 2010–2011. All consenting participants were screened for cough and by chest X-ray. Participants with presumptive TB submitted two sputum samples for smear microscopy, culture, and molecular testing if needed. The TB prevalence estimates were adjusted for missing data and the cluster design.Result
Of 131,329 eligible individuals, 105,913 (81%) participated in the survey, of whom 10,471 (9.9%) were eligible for sputum examination. We found 341 bacteriologically positive TB cases of whom 233 had sputum smear-positive TB. The adjusted prevalence estimates for smear and bacteriologically positive TB were 270/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 217–323), and 398/100,000 (95% CI 333–463), respectively. Only 61% of the diagnosed TB cases screened positive on symptoms (cough >2wks), whereas the other TB cases were detected based on X-ray abnormalities. The TB prevalence increased with age and was 1.8 times higher among men than women. The prevalence-to-notification ratio of smear-positive TB was 3.1 (95% CI 2.5–3.7), was higher among men than women, and increased with age.Conclusion
Our data suggest that there is under-detection and/or -notification of TB, especially among men and elderly. TB control should be strengthened specifically in these risk groups. X-ray examination should be combined with symptom screening to enhance case detection. 相似文献5.
Background
The Xpert MTB/RIF test enables rapid detection of tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance. The World Health Organization recommends Xpert for initial diagnosis in individuals suspected of having multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) or HIV-associated TB, and many countries are moving quickly toward adopting Xpert. As roll-out proceeds, it is essential to understand the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies based on Xpert.Methods and Findings
We evaluated potential health and economic consequences of implementing Xpert in five southern African countries—Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland—where drug resistance and TB-HIV coinfection are prevalent. Using a calibrated, dynamic mathematical model, we compared the status quo diagnostic algorithm, emphasizing sputum smear, against an algorithm incorporating Xpert for initial diagnosis. Results were projected over 10- and 20-y time periods starting from 2012. Compared to status quo, implementation of Xpert would avert 132,000 (95% CI: 55,000–284,000) TB cases and 182,000 (97,000–302,000) TB deaths in southern Africa over the 10 y following introduction, and would reduce prevalence by 28% (14%–40%) by 2022, with more modest reductions in incidence. Health system costs are projected to increase substantially with Xpert, by US$460 million (294–699 million) over 10 y. Antiretroviral therapy for HIV represents a substantial fraction of these additional costs, because of improved survival in TB/HIV-infected populations through better TB case-finding and treatment. Costs for treating MDR-TB are also expected to rise significantly with Xpert scale-up. Relative to status quo, Xpert has an estimated cost-effectiveness of US$959 (633–1,485) per disability-adjusted life-year averted over 10 y. Across countries, cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from US$792 (482–1,785) in Swaziland to US$1,257 (767–2,276) in Botswana. Assessing outcomes over a 10-y period focuses on the near-term consequences of Xpert adoption, but the cost-effectiveness results are conservative, with cost-effectiveness ratios assessed over a 20-y time horizon approximately 20% lower than the 10-y values.Conclusions
Introduction of Xpert could substantially change TB morbidity and mortality through improved case-finding and treatment, with more limited impact on long-term transmission dynamics. Despite extant uncertainty about TB natural history and intervention impact in southern Africa, adoption of Xpert evidently offers reasonable value for its cost, based on conventional benchmarks for cost-effectiveness. However, the additional financial burden would be substantial, including significant increases in costs for treating HIV and MDR-TB. Given the fundamental influence of HIV on TB dynamics and intervention costs, care should be taken when interpreting the results of this analysis outside of settings with high HIV prevalence. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary 相似文献6.
The aims of the present study were to identify risk factors associated with latent tuberculosis (TB), examine the development of active disease among contacts, and assess the effectiveness of treating latent infection in indigenous Brazilians from January 2006 to December 2011. This was a retrospective study consisting of 1,371 tuberculosis contacts, 392 of whom underwent treatment for latent infection. Morbidity-from-TB data were obtained from the Information System for Disease Notification (SINAN) database, and the contacts’ data were collected from the clinical records using forms employed by Special Department of Indigenous Health (SESAI) multidisciplinary teams, according to SESAI’s instructions. The variables that were associated with latent infection among the contacts were age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02–1.04) and close contact with a smear-positive index case (OR: 2.26, 95% CI: 1.59–3.22). The variables associated with the development of active TB among the contacts were a tuberculin skin test (TST) ≥10 mm (relative risk [RR]: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.07–1.17), age (RR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00–1.03), and treatment of latent infection (RR: 0.03, 95% CI: 0.01–0.27). The estimated number of latent infection treatments needed to prevent one case of active TB among the contacts was 51 treatments (95% CI: 33–182). In contacts with TST ≥10 mm, 10 (95% CI: 6–19) latent infection treatments were necessary to prevent one case of active TB. Age and close contact with a smear-positive index case were associated with latent TB. Screening with TST is a high priority among individuals contacting smear-positive index cases. Age and TST are associated with the development of active TB among contacts, and treatment of latent infection is an effective measure to control TB in indigenous communities. 相似文献
7.
Saskia Ricks Claudia M. Denkinger Samuel G. Schumacher Timothy B. Hallett Nimalan Arinaminpathy 《PLoS medicine》2020,17(12)
BackgroundLateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag (‘LF-LAM’), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM (‘SILVAMP-LAM’) showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality.Methods and findingsConcentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing ‘current’ tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical ‘future’ tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000–3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000–520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33–86) and 90 (95% CrI 55–145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%–6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%–11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000–870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%–29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000–210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%–44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF (‘Xpert’) for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden.ConclusionsThese results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.Saskia Ricks and colleagues model the impact of urine-LAM diagnostics for reducing tuberculosis incidence, across different implementation scenarios. 相似文献
8.
Jayadeep Patra Mehak Bhatia Wilson Suraweera Shaun K. Morris Cyril Patra Prakash C. Gupta Prabhat Jha 《PLoS medicine》2015,12(6)
Background
According to WHO Global Health Estimates, tuberculosis (TB) is among the top ten causes of global mortality and ranks second after cardiovascular disease in most high-burden regions. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we investigated the role of second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure as a risk factor for TB among children and adults.Methods and Findings
We performed a systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar up to August 31, 2014. Our a priori inclusion criteria encompassed only original studies where latent TB infection (LTBI) and active TB disease were diagnosed microbiologically, clinically, histologically, or radiologically. Effect estimates were pooled using fixed- and random-effects models. We identified 18 eligible studies, with 30,757 children and 44,432 adult non-smokers, containing SHS exposure and TB outcome data for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Twelve studies assessed children and eight studies assessed adult non-smokers; two studies assessed both populations. Summary relative risk (RR) of LTBI associated with SHS exposure in children was similar to the overall effect size, with high heterogeneity (pooled RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.00–2.83). Children showed a more than 3-fold increased risk of SHS-associated active TB (pooled RR 3.41, 95% CI 1.81–6.45), which was higher than the risk in adults exposed to SHS (summary RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.04–1.68). Positive and significant exposure–response relationships were observed among children under 5 y (RR 5.88, 95% CI 2.09–16.54), children exposed to SHS through any parent (RR 4.20, 95% CI 1.92–9.20), and children living under the most crowded household conditions (RR 5.53, 95% CI 2.36–12.98). Associations for LTBI and active TB disease remained significant after adjustment for age, biomass fuel (BMF) use, and presence of a TB patient in the household, although the meta-analysis was limited to a subset of studies that adjusted for these variables. There was a loss of association with increased risk of LTBI (but not active TB) after adjustment for socioeconomic status (SES) and study quality. The major limitation of this analysis is the high heterogeneity in outcomes among studies of pediatric cases of LTBI and TB disease.Conclusions
We found that SHS exposure is associated with an increase in the relative risk of LTBI and active TB after controlling for age, BMF use, and contact with a TB patient, and there was no significant association of SHS exposure with LTBI after adjustment for SES and study quality. Given the high heterogeneity among the primary studies, our analysis may not show sufficient evidence to confirm an association. In addition, considering that the TB burden is highest in countries with increasing SHS exposure, it is important to confirm these results with higher quality studies. Research in this area may have important implications for TB and tobacco control programs, especially for children in settings with high SHS exposure and TB burden. 相似文献9.
Jon C. Emery Alexandra S. Richards Katie D. Dale C. Finn McQuaid Richard G. White Justin T. Denholm Rein M. G. J. Houben 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2021,288(1943)
Background: it is widely assumed that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, there is substantial evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection can occur. We infer a curve of self-clearance by time since infection and explore its implications for TB epidemiology. Methods and findings: data for self-clearance were inferred using post-mortem and tuberculin-skin-test reversion studies. A cohort model allowing for self-clearance was fitted in a Bayesian framework before estimating the lifetime risk of TB disease and the population infected with Mtb in India, China and Japan in 2019. We estimated that 24.4% (17.8–32.6%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI)) of individuals self-clear within 10 years of infection, and 73.1% (64.6–81.7%) over a lifetime. The lifetime risk of TB disease was 17.0% (10.9–22.5%), compared to 12.6% (10.1–15.0%) assuming lifelong infection. The population at risk of TB disease in India, China and Japan was 35–80% (95% UI) smaller in the self-clearance scenario. Conclusions: the population with a viable Mtb infection may be markedly smaller than generally assumed, with such individuals at greater risk of TB disease. The ability to identify these individuals could dramatically improve the targeting of preventive programmes and inform TB vaccine development, bringing TB elimination within reach of feasibility. 相似文献
10.
Natalie A. Parlane Dairu Shu Supatsak Subharat D. Neil Wedlock Bernd H. A. Rehm Geoffrey W. de Lisle Bryce M. Buddle 《PloS one》2014,9(9)
In both humans and animals, controversy exists concerning the duration of protection induced by BCG vaccine against tuberculosis (TB) and whether revaccination enhances protection. A long-term study was undertaken to determine whether BCG-vaccinated calves would be protected against challenge with Mycobacterium bovis 2½ years after vaccination and to determine the effect of revaccination after 2 years. Seventy–nine calves were divided into five groups (n = 15–17 calves/group) with four of the groups vaccinated subcutaneously with 105 CFU of BCG Danish at 2–4 weeks of age and the fifth group serving as non-vaccinated controls. Three of the four BCG-vaccinated groups were revaccinated 2 years after the initial vaccination. One BCG-vaccinated group was revaccinated with BCG. A second group was vaccinated subcutaneously with a TB protein vaccine consisting of biopolyester particles (Biobeads) displaying two mycobacterial proteins, ESAT-6 and Antigen 85A, mixed with an adjuvant. A third group was vaccinated with TB proteins from M. bovis culture filtrate, mixed with an adjuvant. Twenty-three weeks after the BCG revaccination, all animals were challenged endotracheally with virulent M. bovis and a further 13 weeks later, animals were killed and necropsied to determine protection against TB. The BCG-vaccinated animals produced positive tuberculin caudal fold intradermal (15 of 62 animals) and IFN-γ TB test responses (six of 62 animals) at 6 months after vaccination, but not at subsequent time-points compared to the non-vaccinated animals. Calves receiving a single vaccination with BCG vaccine 2½ years prior to challenge were not protected against TB, while those revaccinated with BCG 2 years after the initial vaccination displayed significant reductions in lung and pulmonary lymph node lesion scores compared to the non-vaccinated animals. In contrast, no reduction in lesion scores was observed in the animals revaccinated with the TB protein vaccines with their immune responses biased towards induction of antibody. 相似文献
11.
Henrik Salje Jason R. Andrews Sarang Deo Srinath Satyanarayana Amanda Y. Sun Madhukar Pai David W. Dowdy 《PLoS medicine》2014,11(7)
Background
India has announced a goal of universal access to quality tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment. A number of novel diagnostics could help meet this important goal. The rollout of one such diagnostic, Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is being considered, but if Xpert is used mainly for people with HIV or high risk of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in the public sector, population-level impact may be limited.Methods and Findings
We developed a model of TB transmission, care-seeking behavior, and diagnostic/treatment practices in India and explored the impact of six different rollout strategies. Providing Xpert to 40% of public-sector patients with HIV or prior TB treatment (similar to current national strategy) reduced TB incidence by 0.2% (95% uncertainty range [UR]: −1.4%, 1.7%) and MDR-TB incidence by 2.4% (95% UR: −5.2%, 9.1%) relative to existing practice but required 2,500 additional MDR-TB treatments and 60 four-module GeneXpert systems at maximum capacity. Further including 20% of unselected symptomatic individuals in the public sector required 700 systems and reduced incidence by 2.1% (95% UR: 0.5%, 3.9%); a similar approach involving qualified private providers (providers who have received at least some training in allopathic or non-allopathic medicine) reduced incidence by 6.0% (95% UR: 3.9%, 7.9%) with similar resource outlay, but only if high treatment success was assured. Engaging 20% of all private-sector providers (qualified and informal [providers with no formal medical training]) had the greatest impact (14.1% reduction, 95% UR: 10.6%, 16.9%), but required >2,200 systems and reliable treatment referral. Improving referrals from informal providers for smear-based diagnosis in the public sector (without Xpert rollout) had substantially greater impact (6.3% reduction) than Xpert scale-up within the public sector. These findings are subject to substantial uncertainty regarding private-sector treatment patterns, patient care-seeking behavior, symptoms, and infectiousness over time; these uncertainties should be addressed by future research.Conclusions
The impact of new diagnostics for TB control in India depends on implementation within the complex, fragmented health-care system. Transformative strategies will require private/informal-sector engagement, adequate referral systems, improved treatment quality, and substantial resources. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary 相似文献12.
Mariam O. Fofana Gwenan M. Knight Gabriela B. Gomez Richard G. White David W. Dowdy 《PloS one》2014,9(5)
Despite current control efforts, global tuberculosis (TB) incidence is decreasing slowly. New regimens that can shorten treatment hold promise for improving treatment completion and success, but their impact on population-level transmission remains unclear. Earlier models projected that a four-month regimen could reduce TB incidence by 10% but assumed that an entire course of therapy must be completed to derive any benefit. We constructed a dynamic transmission model of TB disease calibrated to global estimates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and treatment success. To account for the efficacy of partial treatment, we used data from clinical trials of early short-course regimens to estimate relapse rates among TB patients who completed one-third, one-half, two-thirds, and all of their first-line treatment regimens. We projected population-level incidence and mortality over 10 years, comparing standard six-month therapy to hypothetical shorter-course regimens with equivalent treatment success but fewer defaults. The impact of hypothetical four-month regimens on TB incidence after 10 years was smaller than estimated in previous modeling analyses (1.9% [95% uncertainty range 0.6–3.1%] vs. 10%). Impact on TB mortality was larger (3.5% at 10 years) but still modest. Transmission impact was most sensitive to the proportion of patients completing therapy: four-month therapy led to greater incidence reductions in settings where 25% of patients leave care (“default”) over six months. Our findings remained robust under one-way variation of model parameters. These findings suggest that novel regimens that shorten treatment duration may have only a modest effect on TB transmission except in settings of very low treatment completion. 相似文献
13.
Christina Yoon Adithya Cattamanchi J. Lucian Davis William Worodria Saskia den Boon Nelson Kalema Winceslaus Katagira Sylvia Kaswabuli Cecily Miller Alfred Andama Heidi Albert Pamela Nabeta Christen Gray Irene Ayakaka Laurence Huang 《PloS one》2012,7(11)
Rationale
The clinical impact of Xpert MTB/RIF for tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis in high HIV-prevalence settings is unknown.Objective
To determine the diagnostic accuracy and impact of Xpert MTB/RIF among high-risk TB suspects.Methods
We prospectively enrolled consecutive, hospitalized, Ugandan TB suspects in two phases: baseline phase in which Xpert MTB/RIF results were not reported to clinicians and an implementation phase in which results were reported. We determined the diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF in reference to culture (solid and liquid) and compared patient outcomes by study phase.Results
477 patients were included (baseline phase 287, implementation phase 190). Xpert MTB/RIF had high sensitivity (187/237, 79%, 95% CI: 73–84%) and specificity (190/199, 96%, 95% CI: 92–98%) for culture-positive TB overall, but sensitivity was lower (34/81, 42%, 95% CI: 31–54%) among smear-negative TB cases. Xpert MTB/RIF reduced median days-to-TB detection for all TB cases (1 [IQR 0–26] vs. 0 [IQR 0–1], p<0.001), and for smear-negative TB (35 [IQR 22–55] vs. 22 [IQR 0–33], p = 0.001). However, median days-to-TB treatment was similar for all TB cases (1 [IQR 0–5] vs. 0 [IQR 0–2], p = 0.06) and for smear-negative TB (7 [IQR 3–53] vs. 6 [IQR 1–61], p = 0.78). Two-month mortality was also similar between study phases among 252 TB cases (17% vs. 14%, difference +3%, 95% CI: −21% to +27%, p = 0.80), and among 87 smear-negative TB cases (28% vs. 22%, difference +6%, 95% CI: −34 to +46%, p = 0.77).Conclusions
Xpert MTB/RIF facilitated more accurate and earlier TB diagnosis, leading to a higher proportion of TB suspects with a confirmed TB diagnosis prior to hospital discharge in a high HIV/low MDR TB prevalence setting. However, our study did not detect a decrease in two-month mortality following implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF possibly because of insufficient powering, differences in empiric TB treatment rates, and disease severity between study phases. 相似文献14.
Jennifer A. Gilbert Elisa F. Long Ralph P. Brooks Gerald H. Friedland Anthony P. Moll Jeffrey P. Townsend Alison P. Galvani Sheela V. Shenoi 《PloS one》2015,10(5)
The WHO recommends integrating interventions to address the devastating TB/HIV co-epidemics in South Africa, yet integration has been poorly implemented and TB/HIV control efforts need strengthening. Identifying infected individuals is particularly difficult in rural settings. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of community-based, integrated TB/HIV case finding and additional control strategies on South Africa’s TB/HIV epidemics. We developed a model incorporating TB and HIV transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating TB and HIV interventions in rural South Africa over 10 years. We modeled the impact of a novel screening program that integrates case finding for TB and HIV in the community, comparing it to status quo and recommended TB/HIV control strategies, including GeneXpert, MDR-TB treatment decentralization, improved first-line TB treatment cure rate, isoniazid preventive therapy, and expanded ART. Combining recommended interventions averted 27% of expected TB cases (95% CI 18–40%) 18% HIV (95% CI 13–24%), 60% MDR-TB (95% CI 34–83%), 69% XDR-TB (95% CI 34–90%), and 16% TB/HIV deaths (95% CI 12–29). Supplementing these interventions with annual community-based TB/HIV case finding averted a further 17% of TB cases (44% total; 95% CI 31–56%), 5% HIV (23% total; 95% CI 17–29%), 8% MDR-TB (68% total; 95% CI 40–88%), 4% XDR-TB (73% total; 95% CI 38–91%), and 8% TB/HIV deaths (24% total; 95% CI 16–39%). In addition to increasing screening frequency, we found that improving TB symptom questionnaire sensitivity, second-line TB treatment delays, default before initiating TB treatment or ART, and second-line TB drug efficacy were significantly associated with even greater reductions in TB and HIV cases. TB/HIV epidemics in South Africa were most effectively curtailed by simultaneously implementing interventions that integrated community-based TB/HIV control strategies and targeted drug-resistant TB. Strengthening existing TB and HIV treatment programs is needed to further reduce disease incidence. 相似文献
15.
Novel tuberculosis vaccines are in varying stages of pre-clinical and clinical development. This study seeks to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of a BCG booster vaccine, while accounting for costs of large-scale clinical trials, using the MVA85A vaccine as a case study for estimating potential costs. We conducted a decision analysis from the societal perspective, using a 10-year time frame and a 3% discount rate. We predicted active tuberculosis cases and tuberculosis-related costs for a hypothetical cohort of 960,763 South African newborns (total born in 2009). We compared neonatal vaccination with bacille Calmette-Guérin alone to vaccination with bacille Calmette-Guérin plus a booster vaccine at 4 months. We considered booster efficacy estimates ranging from 40% to 70%, relative to bacille Calmette-Guérin alone. We accounted for the costs of Phase III clinical trials. The booster vaccine was assumed to prevent progression to active tuberculosis after childhood infection, with protection decreasing linearly over 10 years. Trial costs were prorated to South Africa''s global share of bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination. Vaccination with bacille Calmette-Guérin alone resulted in estimated tuberculosis-related costs of $89.91 million 2012 USD, and 13,610 tuberculosis cases in the birth cohort, over the 10 years. Addition of the booster resulted in estimated cost savings of $7.69–$16.68 million USD, and 2,800–4,160 cases averted, for assumed efficacy values ranging from 40%–70%. A booster tuberculosis vaccine in infancy may result in net societal cost savings as well as fewer active tuberculosis cases, even if efficacy is relatively modest and large scale Phase III studies are required. 相似文献
16.
While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1) changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2) changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3) changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry), we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases) beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000–2007) and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011–2014). Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%–100%) the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry), we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases) that resulted entirely (100%) from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control) as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted testing of high-risk subgroups among non-recent entrants) will be necessary to achieve further declines in TB morbidity among foreign-born persons. 相似文献
17.
David W. Dowdy Ismat Lotia Andrew S. Azman Jacob Creswell Suvanand Sahu Aamir J. Khan 《PloS one》2013,8(10)
Background
The potential population-level impact of private-sector initiatives for tuberculosis (TB) case finding in Southeast Asia remains uncertain. In 2011, the Indus Hospital TB Control Program in Karachi, Pakistan, undertook an aggressive case-finding campaign that doubled notification rates, providing an opportunity to investigate potential population-level effects.Methods
We constructed an age-structured compartmental model of TB in the intervention area. We fit the model using field and literature data, assuming that TB incidence equaled the estimated nationwide incidence in Pakistan (primary analysis), or 1.5 times greater (high-incidence scenario). We modeled the intervention as an increase in the rate of formal-sector TB diagnosis and evaluated the potential impact of sustaining this rate for five years.Results
In the primary analysis, the five-year intervention averted 24% (95% uncertainty range, UR: 18-30%) of five-year cumulative TB cases and 52% (95% UR: 45-57%) of cumulative TB deaths. Corresponding reductions in the high-incidence scenario were 12% (95% UR: 8-17%) and 27% (95% UR: 21-34%), although the absolute number of lives saved was higher. At the end of five years, TB notification rates in the primary analysis were below their 2010 baseline, incidence had dropped by 45%, and annual mortality had fallen by 72%. About half of the cumulative impact on incidence and mortality could be achieved with a one-year intervention.Conclusions
Sustained, multifaceted, and innovative approaches to TB case-finding in Asian megacities can have substantial community-wide epidemiological impact. 相似文献18.
Sharon Perry Bouke C. de Jong Jay V. Solnick Maria de la Luz Sanchez Shufang Yang Philana Ling Lin Lori M. Hansen Najeeha Talat Philip C. Hill Rabia Hussain Richard A. Adegbola JoAnne Flynn Don Canfield Julie Parsonnet 《PloS one》2010,5(1)
Background
Helicobacter pylori, a lifelong and typically asymptomatic infection of the stomach, profoundly alters gastric immune responses, and may benefit the host in protection against other pathogens. We explored the hypothesis that H. pylori contributes to the control of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis.Methodology/Principal Findings
We first examined M. tuberculosis-specific IFN-γ and H. pylori antibody responses in 339 healthy Northern Californians undergoing routine tuberculin skin testing. Of 97 subjects (29%) meeting criteria for latent tuberculosis (TB) infection (LTBI), 45 (46%) were H. pylori seropositive. Subjects with LTBI who were H. pylori-seropositive had 1.5-fold higher TB antigen-induced IFN-γ responses (p = 0.04, ANOVA), and a more Th-1 like cytokine profile in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, compared to those who were H. pylori seronegative. To explore an association between H. pylori infection and clinical outcome of TB exposure, we evaluated H. pylori seroprevalence in baseline samples from two high risk TB case-contact cohorts, and from cynomolgus macaques experimentally challenged with M. tuberculosis. Compared to 513 household contacts who did not progress to active disease during a median 24 months follow-up, 120 prevalent TB cases were significantly less likely to be H. pylori infected (AOR: 0.55, 95% CI 0.0.36–0.83, p = 0.005), though seroprevalence was not significantly different from non-progressors in 37 incident TB cases (AOR: 1.35 [95% CI 0.63–2.9] p = 0.44). Cynomolgus macaques with natural H. pylori infection were significantly less likely to progress to TB 6 to 8 months after M. tuberculosis challenge (RR: 0.31 [95% CI 0.12–0.80], p = 0.04).Conclusions/Significance
H. pylori infection may induce bystander effects that modify the risk of active TB in humans and non-human primates. That immunity to TB may be enhanced by exposure to other microbial agents may have important implications for vaccine development and disease control. 相似文献19.
Neeraj Raizada Lakbir Singh Chauhan B. Sai Babu Rahul Thakur Ajay Khera D. Fraser Wares Suvanand Sahu D. Bachani B. B. Rewari Puneet K. Dewan 《PloS one》2009,4(6)
Background
HIV-infected persons suffering from tuberculosis experience high mortality. No programmatic studies from India have documented the delivery of mortality-reducing interventions, such as cotrimoxazole prophylactic treatment (CPT) and antiretroviral treatment (ART). To guide TB-HIV policy in India we studied the effectiveness of delivering CPT and ART to HIV-infected persons treated for tuberculosis in three districts in Andhra Pradesh, India, and evaluated factors associated with death.Methods and Findings
We retrospectively abstracted data for all HIV-infected tuberculosis patients diagnosed from March 2007 through August 2007 using standard treatment outcome definitions. 734 HIV-infected tuberculosis patients were identified; 493 (67%) were males and 569 (80%) were between the ages of 24–44 years. 710 (97%) initiated CPT, and 351 (50%) collected >60% of their monthly cotrimoxazole pouches provided throughout TB treatment. Access to ART was documented in 380 (51%) patients. Overall 130 (17%) patients died during TB treatment. Patients receiving ART were less likely to die (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.3–0.6), while males and those with pulmonary TB were more likely to die (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1–2.7, and HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1–3.2 respectively).Conclusions
Among HIV-infected TB patients in India death was common despite the availability of free cotrimoxazole locally and ART from referral centres. Death was strongly associated with the absence of ART during TB treatment. To minimize death, programmes should promote high levels of ART uptake and closely monitor progress in implementation. 相似文献20.
Bárbara Reis-Santos Teresa Gomes Rodrigo Locatelli Elizabete R. de Oliveira Mauro N. Sanchez Bernardo L. Horta Lee W. Riley Ethel L. Maciel 《PloS one》2014,9(7)