Inevitable evolution: back to the origin and beyond the 20th century paradigm of contingent evolution by historical natural selection

Since neo-Darwinism arose from the work of Darwin and Mendel evolution by natural selection has been seen as contingent and historical being defined by an a posteriori selection process with no a priori laws that explain why evolution on Earth has taken the direction of the major evolutionary trends and transitions instead of any other direction. Recently, however, major life-history trends and transitions have been explained as inevitable because of a deterministic selection that unfolds from the energetic state of the organism and the density-dependent competitive interactions that arise from self-replication in limited environments. I describe differences and similarities between the historical and deterministic selection processes, illustrate concepts using life-history models on large body masses and limited reproductive rates, review life-history evolution with a wider focus on major evolutionary transitions, and propose that biotic evolution is driven by a universal natural selection where the long-term evolution of fitness-related traits is determined mainly by deterministic selection, while contingency is important predominately for neutral traits. Given suitable environmental conditions, it is shown that selection by energetic state and density-dependent competitive interactions unfolds to higher level selection for life-history transitions from simple asexually reproducing self-replicators to large bodied organisms with senescence and sexual reproduction between males and females, and in some cases, to the fully evolved eusocial colony with thousands of offspring workers. This defines an evolutionary arrow of time for open thermodynamic systems with a constant inflow of energy, predicting similar routes for long-term evolution on similar planets.     

Testing evolutionary models of senescence in a natural population: age and inbreeding effects on fitness components in song sparrows

Mutation accumulation (MA) and antagonistic pleiotropy (AP) have each been hypothesized to explain the evolution of 'senescence' or deteriorating fitness in old age. These hypotheses make contrasting predictions concerning age dependence in inbreeding depression in traits that show senescence. Inbreeding depression is predicted to increase with age under MA but not under AP, suggesting one empirical means by which the two can be distinguished. We use pedigree and life-history data from free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to test for additive and interactive effects of age and individual inbreeding coefficient (f) on fitness components, and thereby assess the evidence for MA. Annual reproductive success (ARS) and survival (and therefore reproductive value) declined in old age in both sexes, indicating senescence in this short-lived bird. ARS declined with f in both sexes and survival declined with f in males, indicating inbreeding depression in fitness. We observed a significant agexf interaction for male ARS (reflecting increased inbreeding depression as males aged), but not for female ARS or survival in either sex. These analyses therefore provide mixed support for MA. We discuss the strengths and limitations of such analyses and therefore the value of natural pedigreed populations in testing evolutionary models of senescence.     

The case for negative senescence

Negative senescence is characterized by a decline in mortality with age after reproductive maturity, generally accompanied by an increase in fecundity. Hamilton (1966) ruled out negative senescence: we adumbrate the deficiencies of his model. We review empirical studies of various plants and some kinds of animals that may experience negative senescence and conclude that negative senescence may be widespread, especially in indeterminate-growth species for which size and fertility increase with age. We develop optimization models of life-history strategies that demonstrate that negative senescence is theoretically possible. More generally, our models contribute to understanding of the evolutionary and demographic forces that mold the age-trajectories of mortality, fertility and growth.     

SENESCENCE IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF MAMMALS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY

Here, I use published mortality data from 56 natural populations of mammals to examine evidence for senescence, an increase in the probability of mortality with age. Data on extent of senescence and life history characteristics are compared across taxa in an attempt to test theories for the evolution of senescence in natural populations. In accord with theoretical expectation, senescence is highest in short-lived species with short generation times. In contrast to theoretical expectation, however, senescent increases in mortality rate do not begin until well after age at maturity in most cases. I also present evidence in support of the hypothesis that senescence will be lower in large-brained taxa.     

A review of the evolutionary causes of rodent group-living

I analyze and summarize the empirical evidence supporting alternative hypotheses posed to explain the evolution of rodent group-living. Eight hypotheses are considered: two rely on net fitness benefits to individuals, five rely on ecological and life-history constraints, and one uses elements of both. I expose the logic behind each hypothesis, identify its key predictions, examine how the available evidence on rodent socioecology supports or rejects its predictions, and identify some priorities for future research. I show that empirical support for most hypotheses is meager due to a lack of relevant studies. Also, empirical support for a particular hypothesis, when it exists, comes from studies of the same species used to formulate the original hypothesis. Two exceptions are the hypothesis that individual rodents live in groups to reduce their predation risk and the hypothesis that group-living was adopted by individuals to reduce their cost of thermoregulation. Finally, most hypotheses have been examined without regard to competing hypotheses and often in a restricted taxonomic context. This is clearly an unfortunate situation given that most competing hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. I suggest that in the future comparative approaches should be used. These studies should examine simultaneously the relevance of different benefits and constraints hypothesized to explain the evolution of rodent sociality.     

The importance of transitions for hatching success and brood mortality in the barnacle Chthamalus fragilis under laboratory conditions

Hydrobiologia - Most organisms experience ontogenescence (high and decreasing mortality from conception to the age of maturity) in spite of the clear evolutionary disadvantage of dying prior to...     

A new view of avian life-history evolution tested on an incubation paradox

Viewing life-history evolution in birds based on an age-specific mortality framework can explain broad life-history patterns, including the long incubation periods in southern latitudes documented here. I show that incubation periods of species that are matched phylogenetically and ecologically between Argentina and Arizona are longer in Argentina. Long incubation periods have mystified scientists because they increase the accumulated risk of time-dependent mortality to young without providing a clear benefit. I hypothesize that parents of species with low adult mortality accept increased risk of mortality to their young from longer incubation if this allows reduced risk of mortality to themselves. During incubation, songbird parents can reduce risk of mortality to themselves by reducing nest attentiveness (percentage of time on the nest). Here I show that parents of species with lower adult mortality exhibit reduced nest attentiveness and that lower attentiveness is associated with longer incubation periods. However, the incubation period is also modified by juvenile mortality. Clutch size variation is also strongly correlated with age-specific mortality. Ultimately, adult and juvenile mortality explain variation in incubation and other life-history traits better than the historical paradigm.     

Divergent life histories among populations of the fish Brachyrhaphis rhabdophora: detecting putative agents of selection by candidate model analysis

Studies of natural selection in the wild almost always begin by examining patterns of association between phenotypic adaptations and environmental factors thought to shape evolutionary change. Unfortunately, many studies pay little attention to the effects of model selection on the evolutionary inferences drawn from such correlative data. In this study, I employed a candidate model analysis to examine four potential causes of life-history evolution in the livebearing fish Brachyrhaphis rhabdophora . Combining factor analysis with path analysis, I constructed a nested set of 17 models that represent the hypothetical effects of four putative selective agents (mortality, density, resource availability, and habitat stability) on life-history evolution in this species. These models represent both direct and indirect effects of selection on the life history. Using the Akaike Information Criterion to distinguish among models, I found that simple models that contained only single selective agents most parsimoniously explained life-history divergence among 27 B. rhabdophora populations. Surprisingly, the four putative selective agents could not be distinguished, suggesting that the selective environment could be composed of a single selective agent confounded with other environmental factors, or could be composed of a suite of environmental factors that act in concert to shape the life history. In addition, comparisons among more complex models indicated that direct effects of selective agents appear to have primacy over combinations of indirect selective interactions in explaining intraspecific variation in B. rhabdophora life histories.     

An empirical test of evolutionary theories for reproductive senescence and reproductive effort in the garter snake Thamnophis elegans

Evolutionary theory predicts that differential reproductive effort and rate of reproductive senescence will evolve under different rates of external mortality. We examine the evolutionary divergence of age-specific reproduction in two life-history ecotypes of the western terrestrial garter snake, Thamnophis elegans. We test for the signature of reproductive senescence (decreasing fecundity with age) and increasing reproductive effort with age (increasing reproductive productivity per gram female) in replicate populations of two life-history ecotypes: snakes that grow fast, mature young and have shorter lifespans, and snakes that grow slow, mature late and have long lives. The difference between life-history ecotypes is due to genetic divergence in growth rate. We find (i) reproductive success (live litter mass) increases with age in both ecotypes, but does so more rapidly in the fast-growth ecotype, (ii) reproductive failure increases with age in both ecotypes, but the proportion of reproductive failure to total reproductive output remains invariant, and (iii) reproductive effort remains constant in fast-growth individuals with age, but declines in slow-growth individuals. This illustration of increasing fecundity with age, even at the latest ages, deviates from standard expectations for reproductive senescence, as does the lack of increases in reproductive effort. We discuss our findings in light of recent theories regarding the phenomenon of increased reproduction throughout life in organisms with indeterminate growth and its potential to offset theoretical expectations for the ubiquity of senescence.     

Primates and the evolution of long, slow life histories

Primates are characterized by relatively late ages at first reproduction, long lives and low fertility. Together, these traits define a life-history of reduced reproductive effort. Understanding the optimal allocation of reproductive effort, and specifically reduced reproductive effort, has been one of the key problems motivating the development of life-history theory. Because of their unusual constellation of life-history traits, primates play an important role in the continued development of life-history theory. In this review, I present the evidence for the reduced reproductive effort life histories of primates and discuss the ways that such life-history tactics are understood in contemporary theory. Such tactics are particularly consistent with the predictions of stochastic demographic models, suggesting a key role for environmental variability in the evolution of primate life histories. The tendency for?primates to specialize in high-quality, high-variability food items may make them particularly susceptible to environmental variability and explains their?low reproductive-effort tactics. I discuss recent applications of life-history theory to human evolution and emphasize the continuity between models used to explain peculiarities of human reproduction and senescence with the long, slow life histories of primates more generally.     

Developmental thresholds and the evolution of reaction norms for age and size at life-history transitions

It is quite common in studies of life-history plasticity to find a negative relationship between the age at which various life-history transitions occur and the growth conditions under which individuals develop. In particular, high growth typically results in earlier transitions, often at a larger size. Here, we use a relatively general optimization model for age and size at life-history transitions to argue that current life-history theory cannot adequately explain these results. Specifically, most such theory requires key assumptions that are unlikely to be generally met. This suggests that some important component of the biology of many organisms must be missing from many of the models in life-history theory. We suggest that this missing component might be the phenomenon of developmental thresholds. There are at least two different types of developmental thresholds possible, and we incorporate these into our general optimality model to demonstrate how they can cause a negative relationship between growth conditions and age at a transition. If developmental thresholds are common throughout taxa, then this might explain the empirical results. Our model formulation and analysis also formalizes the popular Wilbur-Collins hypothesis for age and size at metamorphosis in amphibians. The results demonstrate that optimal combinations of age and size, and the slope of the reaction norm connecting them, depend on the existence and type of threshold assumed. Our results also provide an evolutionary framework that can be used to view the data and many of the proximate submodels derived from the Wilbur-Collins hypothesis.     

TECHNICAL ADVANCES: New strategies for telomere-based age estimation

Telomere dynamics link molecular and cellular mechanisms with organismal processes and therefore may explain variation in a number of important life-history traits. Telomere length has been used to estimate age in free-living populations of animals. Such estimation is a potentially powerful tool in the context of population dynamics and management, as well as the study of life-history trade-offs. The number of studies utilizing telomere restriction fragment assays in the fields of ecology and evolution is steadily growing. However, the field lacks methodological and analytical standardization resulting in considerable variation in telomere length and therefore in the usefulness of these techniques. Here, we illustrate new laboratory and analytical methods to reliably measure telomere length from blood erythrocytes and accurately assess the relationship between telomeres and age. We demonstrate the importance of analysing those telomeres most relevant to age-related studies: the shortest telomeres. We present a reliable method to quickly identify an analysis window (the telomere optimal estimate, TOE) which approaches the optimal window for age estimation. Because the TOE focuses on the shortest telomeres - those telomeres which signal cellular senescence and ageing - TOE can also be used to compare telomeres in age-matched individuals. We also compare constant- and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis to show how each can influence telomere measurement. The use of TOE should provide powerful telomere-based age estimation and enable organismal biologists to readily uncover individual and longitudinal differences with regard to telomere dynamics.     

Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest

We investigated the influence of age on survival and breeding rates in a long-lived species Rissa tridactyla using models with individual random effects permitting variation and covariation in fitness components among individuals. Differences in survival or breeding probabilities among individuals are substantial, and there was positive covariation between survival and breeding probability; birds that were more likely to survive were also more likely to breed, given that they survived. The pattern of age-related variation in these rates detected at the individual level differed from that observed at the population level. Our results provided confirmation of what has been suggested by other investigators: within-cohort phenotypic selection can mask senescence. Although this phenomenon has been extensively studied in humans and captive animals, conclusive evidence of the discrepancy between population-level and individual-level patterns of age-related variation in life-history traits is extremely rare in wild animal populations. Evolutionary studies of the influence of age on life-history traits should use approaches differentiating population level from the genuine influence of age: only the latter is relevant to theories of life-history evolution. The development of models permitting access to individual variation in fitness is a promising advance for the study of senescence and evolutionary processes.     

Disturbance regimes and life-history evolution

Disturbance regimes are ecologically important, but many of their evolutionary consequences are poorly understood. A model is developed here that combines the within- and among-season dynamics of disturbances with evolutionary life-history theory. "Disturbance regime" is defined in terms of disturbance timing, frequency, predictability, and severity. The model predicts the optimal body size and time at which organisms should abandon a disturbance-prone growth habitat by maturing and moving to a disturbance-free, nongrowth habitat. The effects of both coarse-grained (those affecting the entire population synchronously) and fine-grained disturbances (those occurring in a patch dynamics setting) are explored. Several predictions are congruent with previous theory. Infrequent or temporally unpredictable disturbances should have little effect on the evolution of life-history strategies, even though they may cause high mortality. Similar to seasonal time constraints on reproduction, disturbance regimes can synchronize metamorphosis within a population, resulting in a seasonal decline in body size at maturity. Other model predictions are novel. When disturbances cause high mortality, coarse-grained disturbances have a much stronger effect on life-history strategies than fine-grained disturbances, suggesting that population structure (relative to the scale of disturbance) plays a critical evolutionary role when disturbances are severe. When within-population variance in juvenile body size is high, two consecutive seasonal declines in body size at maturity can occur, the first associated with disturbance regime and the second associated with seasonal time constraints.     

Model fitting and hypothesis testing for age-specific mortality data

Demographic studies focusing on age-specific mortality rates are becoming increasingly common throughout the fields of life-history evolution, ecology and biogerontology. Well-defined statistical techniques for quantifying patterns of mortality within a cohort and identifying differences in age-specific mortality among cohorts are needed. Here I discuss using maximum likelihood (ML) statistical methods to estimate the parameters of mathematical models, which are used to describe the change in mortality with age. ML provides a convenient and powerful framework for choosing an adequate mortality model, estimating model parameters and testing hypotheses about differences in parameters among experimental or ecological treatments. Simulations suggest that experiments designed to estimate age-specific mortality should involve at least 100-500 individuals per cohort per treatment. Significant bias in the estimation of model parameters is introduced when the mortality model is misspecified and samples are too small to detect the true mortality pattern. Furthermore, the lack of simple and efficient procedures for comparing different mortality models has forced the use of the Gompertz model, which specifies an exponentially increasing mortality with age, and which may not apply to the majority of experimental systems.     

Diversification rates have declined in the Malagasy herpetofauna

The evolutionary origins of Madagascar''s biodiversity remain mysterious despite the fact that relative to land area, there is no other place with consistently high levels of species richness and endemism across a range of taxonomic levels. Most efforts to explain diversification on the island have focused on geographical models of speciation, but recent studies have begun to address the island''s accumulation of species through time, although with conflicting results. Prevailing hypotheses for diversification on the island involve either constant diversification rates or scenarios where rates decline through time. Using relative-time-calibrated phylogenies for seven endemic vertebrate clades and a model-fitting framework, I find evidence that diversification rates have declined through time on Madagascar. I show that diversification rates have clearly declined throughout the history of each clade, and models invoking diversity-dependent reductions to diversification rates best explain the diversification histories for each clade. These results are consistent with the ecological theory of adaptive radiation, and, coupled with ancillary observations about ecomorphological and life-history evolution, strongly suggest that adaptive radiation was an important formative process for one of the most species-rich regions on the Earth. These results cast the Malagasy biota in a new light and provide macroevolutionary justification for conservation initiatives.     

When can a clonal organism escape senescence?

Abstract Some clonal organisms may live for thousands of years and show no signs of senescence, while others consistently die after finite life spans. Using two models, we examined how stage-specific life-history rates of a clone's modules determine whether a genetic individual escapes senescence by replacing old modules with new ones. When the rates of clonal or sexual reproduction and survival of individual modules decline with age, clones are more likely to experience senescence. In addition, the models predict that there is a greater tendency to find senescence in terms of a decline in the rate of sexual reproduction with clone age than in terms of an increase in the probability of clone mortality, unless rates of sexual reproduction increase dramatically with module stage. Using a matrix model modified to represent the clonal lifestyle, we show how a trade-off between sexual and clonal reproduction could result in selection for or against clonal senescence. We also show that, in contrast to unitary organisms, the strength of selection on life-history traits can increase with the age of a clone even in a growing population, countering the evolution of senescence.     

Reports of the Death of Extrinsic Mortality Moulding Senescence Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

The classic evolutionary theory of aging posits that senescence evolves because the weakening of selection with age allows mutations with late-acting deleterious effects to accumulate. Because extrinsic mortality is an important cause of weakening selection, the central prediction of the theory has been that higher extrinsic mortality should lead to the evolution of a higher rate of senescence. However, the validity of this prediction has been questioned, even to the extent of suggesting that it is not a prediction of the theory at all, primarily on the basis that changes in population growth rate will compensate for changes in extrinsic mortality. The implication is that empiricists have been using the wrong prediction to test the theory. This claim is misleading, however, because it does not apply on an evolutionary timescale, when population size must be roughly constant. With a constant population size, Hamilton’s fitness sensitivities show that extrinsic mortality determines the rate at which the strength of selection declines with age, and thus determines the rate of senescence. The central prediction has been confirmed in the few controlled experiments with model organisms that have been conducted, but clearly this is an area ripe for further investigation.     

Protein networks, pleiotropy and the evolution of senescence

The number of interactions, or connectivity, among proteins in the yeast protein interaction network follows a power law. I compare patterns of connectivity for subsets of yeast proteins associated with senescence and with five other traits. I find that proteins associated with ageing have significantly higher connectivity than expected by chance, a pattern not seen for most other datasets. The pattern holds even when controlling for other factors also associated with connectivity, such as localization of protein expression within the cell. I suggest that these observations are consistent with the antagonistic pleiotropy theory for the evolution of senescence. In further support of this argument, I find that a protein's connectivity is positively correlated with the number of traits it influences or its degree of pleiotropy, and further show that the average degree of pleiotropy is greatest for proteins associated with senescence. I explain these results with a simple mathematical model combining assumptions of the antagonistic pleiotropy theory for the evolution of senescence with data on network topology. These findings integrate molecular and evolutionary models of senescence, and should aid in the search for new ageing genes.     

动物生活史进化理论研究进展

综述了生活史性状、生活史对策、权衡、适合度及进化种群统计学等动物生活史进化领域的进展。权衡是生活史性状之间相互联系的纽带,分为生理权衡与进化权衡。适合度是相对的,与个体所处的特定环境条件有关,性状进化与适合度之间关系紧密。适合度是生活史进化理论研究的焦点。探讨动物生活史对策的理论很多,影响最大的是MacArthur和Wilson提出的r对策及K对策理论。随年龄的增长,动物存活率及繁殖率逐步下降的过程,称为衰老;解释衰老的进化理论主要有突变-选择平衡假设和多效对抗假设。进化种群统计学将种群统计学应用于生活史进化研究,为探讨表型适合度的进化提供了有效的手段。将进化种群统计学、数量遗传学及特定种系效应理论进行整合,建立完整的动物生活史进化综合理论体系,是当代此领域的最大挑战。