Binomial sampling for pest management of stable flies (Diptera: Muscidae) that attack dairy cattle.

A binomial sampling plan for pest management of the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), was developed. Counts of stable flies on front legs of the same animal were independent and each leg from the same animal was considered a sample unit. The relationship between the mean number of flies per leg and the variance was determined and did not vary among farms. The relationship between the mean number of flies per leg and the proportion of legs with zero, one or less, and two or less flies (P0, P1, and P2) was determined and used as the basis of the binomial sampling plan. Predicted values of the mean number of flies per leg from P0, P1, and P2 were close to observed values of the mean number of flies per leg. Equations are presented for calculating the variance of a predicted value of the mean number of flies per leg using values of P0, P1 and P2 determined by sampling. Operating characteristic (OC) curves are also presented for determining the probability of making a treatment decision error at an economic threshold of one fly per leg (P0 = 0.47) using binomial sampling or direct counting. OC curves for binomial sampling with n = 50 legs were close to those for direct counting with n = 10 legs. Recommendations concerning the use of binomial sampling for stable flies are presented.     

Binomial sampling to estimate rust mite (Acari: Eriophyidae) densities on orange fruit

Binomial sampling based on the proportion of samples infested was investigated for estimating mean densities of citrus rust mite, Phyllocoptruta oleivora (Ashmead), and Aculops pelekassi (Keifer) (Acari: Eriophyidae), on oranges, Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck. Data for the investigation were obtained by counting the number of motile mites within 600 sample units (each unit a 1-cm2 surface area per fruit) across a 4-ha block of trees (32 blocks total): five areas per 4 ha, five trees per area, 12 fruit per tree, and two samples per fruit. A significant (r2 = 0.89), linear relationship was found between ln(-ln(1 -Po)) and ln(mean), where P0 is the proportion of samples with more than zero mites. The fitted binomial parameters adequately described a validation data set from a sampling plan consisting of 192 samples. Projections indicated the fitted parameters would apply to sampling plans with as few as 48 samples, but reducing sample size resulted in an increase of bootstrap estimates falling outside expected confidence limits. Although mite count data fit the binomial model, confidence limits for mean arithmetic predictions increased dramatically as proportion of samples infested increased. Binomial sampling using a tally threshold of 0 therefore has less value when proportions of samples infested are large. Increasing the tally threshold to two mites marginally improved estimates at larger densities. Overall, binomial sampling for a general estimate of mite densities seemed to be a viable alternative to absolute counts of mites per sample for a grower using a low management threshold such as two or three mites per sample.     

Early detection of cattle grub (Hypoderma lineatum and H.bovis) (Diptera, Oestridae) using ELISA

An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect cattle grub-infested animals in the autumn in Alberta has been developed. Antibody to Hypoderma lineatum de Vill. was detectable as early as 6 weeks post-infestation in artificially infested steers. Peak antibody concentrations preceded the peak in maximum 'apparent' grub numbers which occurred between 37 and 43 weeks after infestation. Natural infestations with H. lineatum and H. bovis L., ranging from one to ninety-two grubs per calf, were readily detected by November and the incidence of false positives in uninfested calves was only 5%. Low level (1-4 grubs) infestations of H. bovis only became detectable in February with peak antibody concentrations occurring at the end of April. Prevalence of cattle grub infestations in southern Alberta was shown to be 37% during this study.     

Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands

This article presents an uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle herds in traditional farming systems of West and Central African drylands. The study focused on productivity rates in animal numbers (RN) and meat weights (RW) estimated from a herd growth model, which were compared with FAOSTAT-based estimates. The uncertainty analysis contained the following two steps: uncertainty propagation and a global sensitivity analysis. The analysis was based on a state-of-the-art of the current knowledge and a set of available data on the herd performances. The calculations used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of RN and RW and the standardized regression coefficients method to estimate the contribution of the input variables to the outputs variances. The mean rate RN was estimated to 0.127 animal/animal-year with a 95% CI of (0.091, 0.163) and the mean rate RW to 11.7 kg/animal-year with a 95% CI of (8.8, 14.7), corresponding to relative variation around the mean of about ±29% and ±25%, respectively. The input variables that contributed most to the variance of RN (almost 76% of the output variance) were the calving rate, the adult female mortality rate and the female proportion in the population (determined by the pattern of the male offtake in the herds). The input variables that contributed most to the variance of RW were the same as those for RN plus the adult live weights. The CI ranges that were estimated in this article indicate that productivity rates based on literature data or expert estimations of the herd performances should be considered with caution. Research efforts based on gold-standard herd monitoring protocols accounting for temporal and spatial variations should be undertaken in future to decrease the knowledge gaps on the input variables that contribute most to these ranges.     

Spatial distribution of the green peach aphid used in estimating the populations of gynoparae

Summary In 2 years, during the initial invasion of peach leaves by the green peach aphid,Myzus persicae (Sulzer), the number of gynoparae was low, and the distribution on leaves was random. Then as the mean number increased, the distribution became intermediate and could not be distinguished from either a Poisson or a negative binomial. Finally, as the mean continued to increase, the variance increased rapidly, and the population was found to fit a negative binomial distribution. Thus the aggregation response was verified because the dispersion pattern fitted a contagious distribution. A sampling plan was devised by which the dispersion parameterk was used to estimate the density of aphids per leaf based on the percentage of leaves infested. Sampling the third year of the study confirmed the validity of the sampling parameter that had been calculated from data for the 2 previous years.     

Seasonal dynamics, dispersion, sequential sampling plans and treatment thresholds for the citrus leafminer, Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae), in a mature lemon block in coastal New South Wales, Australia

Abstract  Studies of citrus leafminer in a coastal orchard in NSW, Australia indicated that an increase in abundance to about one mine per flush was followed during the midseason flush by a rapid increase in population that was related to an increase in the percentage of leaves infested within flushes and the number of mines per leaf. The fits of frequency distributions and Iwao's patchiness regression indicated that populations were highly contagious initially, and as the exponent k of the negative binomial distribution increased with increasing population density, the distribution approached random. Concurrently, the coefficient of variation of mines per flush (which was strongly related to the proportion of un-infested flushes) decreased to about unity as the proportion of un-infested flushes reached zero and fell further as the number of mines per flush increased. Both numerative and binomial sequential sampling plans were developed using a decision threshold based on 1.2 mines per flush. The binomial sampling plan was based on a closely fitting model of the functional relationship between mean density and proportion of infested flushes. Functional relationships using the parameters determined from Iwao's patchiness regression and Taylor's power law were equally satisfactory, and one based on the negative binomial model also fitted well, but the Poisson model did not. The three best fitting models indicated that a decision threshold of 1.2 mines per flush was equivalent to 50% of flushes infested. From a practical point of view, the transition from 25% infestation of flushes through 50% is so rapid that it may be prudent to take action when the 25% level is reached; otherwise, the 50% may be passed before the crop is checked again. For valuable nursery stock should infestation be detected in spring, it may be advisable to apply prophylactic treatment as the midseason flush starts.     

棉花苗期棉蚜的二项式抽样设计及其精度分析(英文)

1991年4月—7月在河北省北京农业大学曲周试验站的棉花地进行苗期棉蚜（Aphisgossypii）的田间抽样调查,共收集到24组抽样数据。用泰勒幂法则对数据进行拟合,得到棉花苗期棉蚜为聚集分布。利用每样方（株）虫口不超过数阈值T（分别为0,1,2…9,10,15,20,30）头蚜虫的植株比例（PT）与种群密度（m,头／株）的关系,拟合经验关系式ln（m）=a十bln[-ln（PT）],通过对不同数阈值T的回归决定系数（r2）、种群的回归估计方差（Var（m））和抽样精度（用d估计）等进行综合分析,结果表明该蚜虫在数阈值T为15时,回归估计方差最小,回归决定系数和d值最大,因而T=15为该蚜虫的理想数阈值;而小的T值尤其是T为O时,由于产生太大的回归估计方差,很小的回归决定系数和d值即抽样的精度极低,因而不宜在实际中应用于棉蚜的二项式抽样设计。     

Statistical models predicting embryo survival to term in cattle after embryo transfer

Embryo survival to term in recipient cattle is highly variable. We examined calving data in the published literature to determine whether a model of binomial independence or a model which includes an embryo (e) and recipient term (r), adequately explain observed embryo survival rates following attempts to induce twin calving using transfer of two embryos. To achieve this we examined 32 published papers which provided us with 47 sets of data concerning 4560 recipients with either 0, 1 or 2 calves born. In each set of data, the observed embryo survival rate to term (p) (number of calves born/number of embryos) was calculated and the expected number of recipients with either 0, 1 or 2 calves born was determined, assuming a binomial distribution. Parameters for the second model were estimated using maximum-likelihood procedures. The model of embryo independence was rejected in 85% of the sets of data, suggesting that factors other than the embryo are important sources of variation in embryo survival or loss. The proposed e and r model of embryo survival adequately describes the published data in recipients receiving either single or twin embryos. In general, only 50-70% of embryos and recipients are sufficiently competent to result in a calving. Variation among laboratories producing either in vitro or in vivo derived embryos was due to variation in recipient and not embryo competence. It is argued that e rather than observed embryo survival rate, and r rather than observed pregnancy rate, should be used to compare differences among embryo treatments and groups of recipients, respectively. Acceptance of this proposition should permit faster progress in identifying the biology of superior embryos and recipients, which is a prerequisite to improving embryo survival rate in cattle. Collectively, the published data are not consistent with a model of embryo independence, and that a model of embryo survival to term which recognises recipient as well as embryo contributions to embryo survival may be more appropriate in cattle.     

棉花苗期棉蚜的二项式抽样设计及其精度分析

基于棉花苗期棉蚜（Ａｐｈｉｓ ｇｏｓｓｙｐｉｉ）的２４组调查数据,利用每样方虫口不超过数阈值Ｔ（为０,１,２,…,９,１０,１５,２０,３０）头蚜虫的植株比例（ＰＴ）与种群密度（ｍ,头／株）的关系,拟合经验关系式１ｎ（ｍ）＝α＋ｂ１ｎ〔－１ｎ（ＰＴ）〕设计二项式抽样。通过对不同数阈值Ｔ的决定系数（ｒ＾２）、估计方差（Ｖａｒ（ｍ））和抽样精度（ｄ估计）等进行综合分析,结果表明该蚜虫在数阈值Ｔ为１５时     

Binomial sequential sampling of adult Saccharicoccus sacchari on sugarcane

The between-stalk dispersion characteristics of adults of the pink sugarcane mealybug Saccharicoccus sacchari (Cockerell) were determined in southern Queensland. Iwao's patchiness regression was inappropriate to describe the relationship between mean and variance. Taylor's power law indicated that adults were aggregated, especially at the beginning and end of the ratoon growth period. Binomial data were modelled by the Nachman model; the model of Grout and two models of Wilson & Room were inappropriate to describe the relationship between proportion of stalks infested and mean numbers of adults per stalk. Relationships to determine sample sizes for fixed levels of precision and binomial fixed-precision-level stop lines are developed for different sampling times using Taylor's power law and Nachman's equation.     

BINOMIAL COUNT ANALYSIS BASED ON THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND POPULATION DENSITY ESTIMATION OF COTTON APHIDS1)

Abstract  Based on field population sampling of Aphis gossypii on cotton seedlings in Quzhou Experiment Station of China Agricultural University in Hebei Province in 1991, we obtained a data set consisting of 24 estimates of mean aphid density ( m , number of aphids per plant), variance (s²) and the proportion of plants (P_T) with no more than T aphids (T=0, 1, 2,…, 8, 10, 15, 20, respectively and defined as tally threshold). Taylor's power law fitted the data well (r²= 0. 958). The resulting slope (1. 515) was significantly greater than 1, indicating that the spatial distribution of this aphid was in aggregated pattern. An empirical relationship between m and Pr was developed for each T value using the parameters from the linear regression In( m )= a +bln[- ln( P_T )}]. The importance of the T values in reduction of sampling errors and their application to binomial sampling plans are discussed. Small T values, particularly aphid-free plant (T = 0, conventional binomial sample), could lead to spurious estimates of m from P_T . A value of T from 10 to 15 was recommended to develop binomial sampling plans for the aphids on cotton seedlings because of the relatively small sampling errors.     

Operating characteristics of full count and binomial sampling plans for green peach aphid (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in potato

Counts of green peach aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), in potato, Solanum tuberosum L., fields were used to evaluate the performance of the sampling plan from a pest management company. The counts were further used to develop a binomial sampling method, and both full count and binomial plans were evaluated using operating characteristic curves. Taylor's power law provided a good fit of the data (r2 = 0.95), with the relationship between the variance (s2) and mean (m) as ln(s2) = 1.81(+/- 0.02) + 1.55(+/- 0.01) ln(m). A binomial sampling method was developed using the empirical model ln(m) = c + dln(-ln(1 - P(T))), to which the data fit well for tally numbers (T) of 0, 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10. Although T = 3 was considered the most reasonable given its operating characteristics and presumed ease of classification above or below critical densities (i.e., action thresholds) of one and 10 M. persicae per leaf, the full count method is shown to be superior. The mean number of sample sites per field visit by the pest management company was 42 +/- 19, with more than one-half (54%) of the field visits involving sampling 31-50 sample sites, which was acceptable in the context of operating characteristic curves for a critical density of 10 M. persicae per leaf. Based on operating characteristics, actual sample sizes used by the pest management company can be reduced by at least 50%, on average, for a critical density of 10 M. persicae per leaf. For a critical density of one M. persicae per leaf used to avert the spread of potato leaf roll virus, sample sizes from 50 to 100 were considered more suitable.     

Estimates of missing heritability for complex traits in Brown Swiss cattle

Background

Genomic selection estimates genetic merit based on dense SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) genotypes and phenotypes. This requires that SNPs explain a large fraction of the genetic variance. The objectives of this work were: (1) to estimate the fraction of genetic variance explained by dense genome-wide markers using 54 K SNP chip genotyping, and (2) to evaluate the effect of alternative marker-based relationship matrices and corrections for the base population on the fraction of the genetic variance explained by markers.

Methods

Two alternative marker-based relationship matrices were estimated using 35 706 SNPs on 1086 dairy bulls. Both pedigree- and marker-based relationship matrices were fitted simultaneously or separately in an animal model to estimate the fraction of variance not explained by the markers, i.e. the fraction explained by the pedigree. The phenotypes considered in the analysis were the deregressed estimated breeding values (dEBV) for milk, fat and protein yield and for somatic cell score (SCS).

Results

When dEBV were not sufficiently accurate (50 or 70%), the estimated fraction of the genetic variance explained by the markers was around 65% for yield traits and 45% for SCS. Scaling marker genotypes with locus-specific frequencies of heterozygotes slightly increased the variance explained by markers, compared with scaling with the average frequency of heterozygotes across loci. The estimated fraction of the genetic variance explained by the markers using separately both relationships matrices followed the same trends but the results were underestimated. With less accurate dEBV estimates, the fraction of the genetic variance explained by markers was underestimated, which is probably an artifact due to the dEBV being estimated by a pedigree-based animal model.

Conclusions

When using only highly accurate dEBV, the proportion of the genetic variance explained by the Illumina 54 K SNP chip was approximately 80% for Brown Swiss cattle. These results depend on the SNP chip used and the family structure of the population, i.e. more dense SNPs and closer family relationships are expected to result in a higher fraction of the variance explained by the SNPs.     

Estimating Relative Error in Nematode Numbers from Single Soil Samples Composed of Multiple Cores

Spatial distributions of several species of plant-parasitic nematodes were determined in each of three fallow vegetable fields and in smaller subunits of those fields. Goodness of fit to each of several theoretical distributions was tested hy means of a X² test. Distributions for most species showed good agreement with a negative binomial model. An exception occurred with Crictmemella sp., which showed a better fit to the Neyman Type A distribution. For nematodes distributed according to the negative binomial model, the number of cores per composite sample needed to achieve specified relative errors was calculated. For a given nematode species, such as Quinisulcius actus (Allen) Siddiqi or Meloidogyne incognita (Kofoid &White) Chitwood, the k values for the negative binomial distribution increased as field size decreased, with the result that fewer cores were needed to achieve the same level of precision in a smaller field. Best results were achieved when the single sample was used to estimate populations in fields of 0.25-0.45 ha in size. When using only a single composite sample to estimate mixed populations of the nematodes studied here in a field of that size, approximately 22 cores per composite sample would be needed to estimate all population means within a standard error to mean ratio of 25%. Considerably, more cores were needed to maintain a given level of precision in fields of 1.0 ha or greater, and it may be necessary to subdivide larger unils (ca. 1.5 ha and up) for accurate sampling.     

Growth hormone response to human pancreatic growth hormone releasing factor in cattle

The effects of a growth hormone releasing factor, human pancreatic growth hormone releasing factor-44 (hpGRF-44), on growth hormone (GH) secretion in calves, heifers and cows were studied. A single intravenous (iv) injection of 0.1, 0.25, 0.5 or 1.0 microgram of synthetic hpGRF-44 per kg of body weight (bw) in calves significantly elevated the circulating GH level within 2-5 min, while no increase in plasma GH was observed in saline injected control calves. The plasma GH level increased proportionally to the log dose of hpGRF-44, and reached a peak at 5-10 min (p less than 0.01). Subcutaneous injection of hpGRF-44 also elevated the plasma GH level, but the peak value at 15 min was 37% of that of iv injection (p less than 0.05). Intravenous injection of 0.25 microgram of hpGRF-44 per kg of bw to female calves, heifers, and cows significantly elevated mean the GH levels from 8.5, 2.3, and 1.6 ng/ml at 0 time to peak values of 97, 26, and 11.6 ng/ml, respectively (p less than 0.01). The plasma GH response and basal level in calves were significantly higher than those of heifers or cows (p less than 0.025). The plasma GH response to hpGRF-44 as well as the basal level decreased with advancing age. The plasma GH response to hpGRF-44 and basal GH in male calves were significantly greater than those in female calves (p less than 0.001). These results indicate that synthetic hpGRF-44 is a potent secretogogue for bovine GH, and suggest its usefulness in the assessment of GH secretion and reserve in cattle.     

Connectedness among herds of beef cattle bred under natural service

Background

A procedure to measure connectedness among herds was applied to a beef cattle population bred by natural service. It consists of two steps: (a) computing coefficients of determination (CDs) of comparisons among herds; and (b) building sets of connected herds.

Methods

The CDs of comparisons among herds were calculated using a sampling-based method that estimates empirical variances of true and predicted breeding values from a simulated n-sample. Once the CD matrix was estimated, a clustering method that can handle a large number of comparisons was applied to build compact clusters of connected herds of the Bruna dels Pirineus beef cattle. Since in this breed, natural service is predominant and there are almost no links with reference sires, to estimate CDs, an animal model was used taking into consideration all pedigree information and, especially, the connections with dams. A sensitivity analysis was performed to contrast single-trait sire and animal model evaluations with different heritabilities, multiple-trait animal model evaluations with different degrees of genetic correlations and models with maternal effects.

Results

Using a sire model, the percentage of connected herds was very low even for highly heritable traits whereas with an animal model, most of the herds of the breed were well connected and high CD values were obtained among them, especially for highly heritable traits (the mean of average CD per herd was 0.535 for a simulated heritability of 0.40). For the lowly heritable traits, the average CD increased from 0.310 in the single-trait evaluation to 0.319 and 0.354 in the multi-trait evaluation with moderate and high genetic correlations, respectively. In models with maternal effects, the average CD per herd for the direct effects was similar to that from single-trait evaluations. For the maternal effects, the average CD per herd increased if the maternal effects had a high genetic correlation with the direct effects, but the percentage of connected herds for maternal effects was very low, less than 12%.

Conclusions

The degree of connectedness in a bovine population bred by natural service mating, such as Bruna del Pirineus beef cattle, measured as the CD of comparisons among herds, is high. It is possible to define a pool of animals for which estimated breeding values can be compared after an across-herds genetic evaluation, especially for highly heritable traits.     

Sampling strategies for using female gametophytes to estimate heterozygosity in conifers

Summary Unbiased estimators of genotype and allele frequencies and their respective variances are obtained for loci identified by mendelian segregation in haploid female gametophytes from individual trees. By a minimum sampling variance criterion, the allocation of experimental effort between the number of female gametophytes analysed per tree and the number of trees sampled per population is examined for a fixed total amount of experimental effort. For estimating heterozygosity, the optimum sampling design for many (generally most) cases is three female gametophytes per tree, but may be more than three depending upon the true genotype frequencies in the population. For estimating allele frequencies, the optimum sampling design is one female gametophyte per tree except in cases where a strong negative correlation exists between alleles within genotpyes. Guidelines are discussed for determining a suitable number of female gametophytes to be analysed per tree in order to estimate heterozygosity.     

Binomial sampling as a cost efficient sampling method for pest management of cabbage root fly (Dipt., Anthomyiidae) in cauliflower

A binomial (presence–absence) sampling plan has been developed based on the relationship between the proportion of cauliflower plants having visible cabbage root fly eggs ( Delia radicum L.) exposed on the soil surface around the plant stem and the mean density of eggs per plant. The Kono–Sugino's model was fitted to a total of 125 population estimates, each based on 10 plant samples collected from cauliflower fields in 1994 and 1995 (P=0.001; R²=0.64). When the model was compared with an independent data set consisting of 39 population estimates collected in 1995, an analysis of covariance showed no significant differences between the regression lines. The efficiency of the binomial method was compared with absolute sampling in terms of relative precision and cost efficiency. The binomial method had a high coefficient of variation, RV ≈ 0.85, due to large biological error. In spite of this, binomial sampling was more cost efficient than the applied soil sampling when between 10 and 30 plants were examined for the presence of visible eggs.     

Resting habits of Zebu cattle in a nocturnal enclosure

Over a period of one year, resting habits in a nocturnal enclosure were studied in a cattle herd consisting of cows with their calves and one bull. Individual preferences for particular resting areas were found in all members of the herd; in some cases such habits could be traced throughout 12 months. Local preferences, climatic changes, disturbances and/or personal associations with certain group members determine an animal's resting habits. The degree of consistency with which an animal lies on its resting place is independent of its dominance status. It was concluded that an animal's individual resting habit raises no competitive situation with other herd members.     

Estimating acridid densities in grassland habitats: a comparison between presence-absence and abundance sampling designs

Sampling methods to estimate acridid density per surface area unit in grassland habitats were compared using presence-absence data and count data. Sampling plans based on 6 yr of surveys were devised to estimate the density of Chorthippus spp., Euchorthippus spp., and Calliptamus italicus L. These acridids represented >90% of species in the study area. Sampling plans based on count data provided a reasonable tool when densities were >1/m(2) and when the level of precision was 0.20-0.30. A binomial sampling plan can be used to estimate C. italicus density with a level of precision >or=0.28. Sampling characteristics, i.e., estimated mean, actual precision, and sample size, were established on validation data sets with bootstrapping analysis. Sampling costs were also calculated according to density-dependent functions. Comparison between binomial sampling and enumerative sampling of C. italicus showed that binomial sampling required less time than enumerative sampling when densities were 0.35. Plot area had no significant effect on sample variances of counts.